WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Kremlin says changes to Russia's nuclear policy are a signal to the West

The Kremlin said on Thursday that changes to Russia's nuclear weapons doctrine outlined by President Vladimir Putin should be considered a signal to Western countries that there will be consequences if they participate in attacks on Russia.

Putin said on Wednesday that Russia could use nuclear weapons if it was struck with conventional missiles, and that Moscow would consider any assault on it supported by a nuclear power to be a joint attack.

The decision to change Russia's official nuclear doctrine is the Kremlin's answer to deliberations in the United States and Britain about whether or not to give Ukraine permission to fire conventional Western missiles into Russia.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said adjustments to a document called "The Foundations of State Policy in the Sphere of Nuclear Deterrence" had been formulated.

Asked by reporters if the changes were a signal to the West, Peskov said: "This should be considered a definite signal."

"This is a signal that warns these countries about the consequences if they participate in an attack on our country by various means, and not necessarily nuclear ones," Peskov said.

The world, Peskov said, was witness to an "unprecedented confrontation" which he said was provoked by the "direct involvement of Western countries, including nuclear powers" in the Ukraine war.

Outgoing NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Moscow was attempting to intimidate alliance members.

"Russia's nuclear rhetoric is dangerous and reckless," Stoltenberg said at the Council on Foreign Relations. "We are closely watching what Russia is doing."

Peskov said a decision on whether or not to publish the nuclear documents would be made at a later date.

Russia's current published nuclear doctrine, set out in a 2020 decree by Putin, says Russia may use nuclear weapons in case of a nuclear attack by an enemy or a conventional attack that threatens the existence of the state.

Asked if rejecting a post-Soviet moratorium on nuclear tests had been discussed as part of the changes, Peskov said he could not answer the question as Wednesday's meeting had been mostly top secret.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken called Putin's comments "totally irresponsible."

"I think many in the world have spoken clearly about that when he's been rattling the nuclear sabre - including China, in the past," he said in an interview with MSNBC on Thursday.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Zelensky has no ‘tangible’ peace plan – Kremlin

Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky has no genuine plan to resolve the conflict with Russia, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters at a press briefing on Thursday.  

Peskov was asked whether Moscow would consider it a threat to Russia’s sovereignty if the West were to accept the Ukrainian leader’s “victory plan” which he reportedly presented during his visit to the US this week. 

According to The Times, Zelensky’s new scheme, which has not yet been made public, consists of four points – the continuation of Kiev’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk Region, Western security guarantees for Ukraine, the delivery of modern weapons, and international financial assistance for the country. 

Peskov stressed that Zelensky’s latest plan does not contain any specifics, even for Kiev’s Western backers. 

“Therefore, there can be no talk of any sort of adoption [of the plan],” he said. 

Bloomberg previously reported, citing sources familiar with Zelensky’s conversations with foreign leaders, that his ‘victory plan’ has underwhelmed Western officials as it contains no “real surprises” and is not a game-changer. One source described the initiative as nothing more than a “wish list” that underscores “a deepening sense of pessimism among allied nations” regarding the outcome of the Ukraine conflict. 

In an interview with ABC News earlier this week, Zelensky claimed that “we are closer to peace than we think.” However, he stressed that his latest scheme is not about negotiating with Russia but about “the strengthening of Ukraine.”  

Moscow reiterated on Tuesday that the only way the conflict with Kiev can end is with Russia achieving all the goals of its military operation “one way or another.”

Reuters/RT

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) had barely finished announcing the result of last Saturday’s Edo governorship poll when I got a call to eat the humble pie. Adams Oshiomhole, the man I called a product vendor in my last article, had pulled off another big one!

Why? I had no dog in the fight. But I got the drift. I had warned that given Oshiomhole’s reputation for campaigning for candidates for whom he often ended up apologising, voters could hardly ignore the warning label on his candidate, Monday Okpebholo, and that, at any rate, if it wasn’t that in politics, crime multiplies grace, Comrade’s factory should have been sealed or closed long ago.

But he got this one, right? Okpebholo, who Oshiomhole carried on his back throughout the campaign, is now governor-elect. The Comrade is entitled to ask his critics to eat the humble pie. Fair enough. While I shop for the sugar-free variety, let’s review the poll, starting with issues we might agree on. 

Powershift 

Rotation or zoning is still a crucial factor in politics. The two leading parties in the contest—the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)—put forward candidates from Edo Central, which had not produced a governor before, except for the brief spell of Oserheimen Osunbor.

The governor-elect, Okpebholo (APC), and his rival, Asue Ighodalo (PDP), are from this senatorial district. But the Labour Party thought differently: the party put forward Olumide Akpata from Edo South, which, apart from being the home of Governor Godwin Obaseki, had also produced more governors than any other. Akpata invited the fight to his crowded backyard.

The first thing Saturday’s election taught was that Edo people wanted power to shift elsewhere. Ighodalo may not have reaped the full benefit, but the result showed that he defeated Okpebholo in Edo Central, even though he currently represents this zone in the Senate. That lesson – that zoning matters – was lost on Labour, and it paid dearly for it.

Godfather never sleeps

Godfathers matter, too. In elite circles and on TV discussion programmes, we can criticise godfathers and call them names, like I called Oshiomhole, a decorated vendor of lousy products. It doesn’t matter, as the results of the poll have shown. The election was a contest of godfathers: Oshiomhole vs. Obaseki, each with a hefty trail of other godfathers lurking in the shadows. 

If godfathers didn’t matter, Obaseki wouldn’t go, like a thief in the night, accompanied by Ighodalo, to the Abuja private residence of the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, his interim godfather four years ago in a desperate attempt to curry favour. 

Complaining about the role of godfathers in our elections won’t change anything. Party members or their sympathisers must be prepared to put their money and energy where their mouth is. It’s a waste of time to disregard party funding and involvement in party organisation, only to complain at elections that Piper Godfathers are playing a disgusting tune. They will.

Oshiomhole has redeemed himself as a preeminent product vendor and godfather of Edo politics. He has also retired Obaseki to Afrinvest or whatever may be left of his investment company.

There’s a life lesson here, too: choose your fight. The question was not who Obaseki was fighting but who he was not fighting. He fought Oshiomhole, fought those who sheltered him from vagrancy four years ago, fought his deputy, fought relations of his deputy in the civil service, fought anyone remotely connected to Oshiomhole, fought the Palace, and fought anyone who advised him to stop fighting. Ultimately, he’ll have to deal with the echoes of what might have been – alone.

Over their dead body

The poll tells us yet another thing—something the PDP may learn over its dead body: that the division in the party that snatched its cap in 2023 may behead it sooner than later. The ruling APC has had problems, especially concerning the chairman's home troubles and the power tussle in the North Central. However, the gold for internal chaos must go to the PDP and the Labour Party. 

Even though PDP governors converged on Benin during the election to present a common front, the party’s core – the governors and its National Working Committee – has been wracked by divisions. The same problem has split the Labour Party down the middle, with each party's faction claiming to be the authentic one. On Saturday, the candidates of both parties were, strictly speaking, political orphans struggling to get to shore from the parties’ sinking boats.  

Broken 

Saturday also cleared any doubts that voter apathy is an increasingly severe problem. In a state with a population of about 4.4 million and over half registered voters, voter turnout was 24.49 percent. We have seen this trend in virtually every election. All that happens the day after is the parties and INEC trading blame. 

Until politicians restore trust and people begin to see elections as a viable means of making politicians accountable, the voter numbers will continue to drop. 

To make matters worse, elections have become warfare. For example, the ratio of voters to security personnel in the Edo election was 1:11. Ultimately, voters are either overwhelmed by indifference or lethargy or discouraged by fear. 

But who cares? Once the results are announced and the winner is declared, those who are displeased and have the money go to court. Voters go home until the next cycle.

Adding up

Discrepancies between the figures on the election result viewer portal (iREV), the number of accredited voters, and what INEC finally announces remain a severe headache. The bimodal accreditation system's whole point was to reduce significant disputes over figures and make the process more transparent. 

Some progress has been made since Mike Tyson was on the voter roll, and palm kernel shells were improvised as thumbprints. Yet, it’s a considerable irony that the same system, which seemed to work well in 2020 and was praised by the PDP and independent monitors as a contributory factor for the poll's success that year, was perhaps one of the most contentious in Saturday’s vote. INEC must get its act together.

Never say, never

And finally, we saw again on Saturday that interests are the only thing permanent in politics. And I’m not talking here about Philip Shaibu changing parties like underwear, although you would be right to cite that as a good example. I’m talking about Ighodalo and what might have been. 

In case you missed it, Babafemi Ojudu shared a viral message last week: Asue Ighodalo was a member of the Bola Tinubu transition committee after he was elected Lagos State governor in 1999. In another life, Ighodalo, a dyed-in-the-wool Lagos Boy, might have been on Tinubu’s side, as Obaseki once was. What politics cannot divide does not exist.

But who knows? Never say never. If lousy product vendors can get a second – even a third – life, you never know what the future holds. As they wrote on the tail of that famous mammy wagon to Eastern Nigeria many years ago: No condition is permanent!

** Ishiekwene is the Editor-In-Chief of LEADERSHIP and the author of the new book Writing for Media and Monetising It.

Matthew Smith

While the business press tends to focus attention on macro strategic forces such as AI, geopolitics, and climate change, one of the biggest trends among experts in leadership development today is perhaps surprisingly a focus on building deeper, more “human” capacities. The call for leaders to embrace their humanity is not new. Next year will mark the thirtieth anniversary of Daniel Goleman’s book Emotional Intelligence, which popularized competencies such as self-regulation, empathy, and social skills as critical to leadership success. More recently, however, many leading thinkers on leadership development have suggested the need for leaders to undertake even more profound internal work that in prior years was seen more as the domain of psychotherapy or even spirituality.

In their most recent global study of CEOs, Egon Zehnder, an executive search and leadership advisory firm, found that 80% of CEOs felt the need to embark on a “dual journey” of personal and organizational transformation, up from 26% only three years prior, a jump that they called the “most striking finding” in their research. Their research highlights the importance of senior leaders slowing down, listening more, and exploring their blind spots with humility, which may seem counterintuitive in the face of the ever-increasing pace of change and strategic complexity they face.

Earlier this month, four senior partners at McKinsey published The Journey of Leadership: How CEOs Learn to Lead from the Inside Out, which makes an even more explicit argument for deepening the focus on the human side of leadership. The book synthesizes trends and lessons from over 500 CEOs who have attended McKinsey’s Bower Forum, which the authors describe as a “unique laboratory” for exploring the challenges that senior leaders face and how the most successful among them have flourished.

Kurt Strovink, one of the authors, notes that one of the surprising elements from the Bower Forum CEO discussions was the prevalence of topics related to what he calls the “personal and emotional side of how to lead.” Strovink observed that “almost 60% of the challenges raised were not business issues, but human-centric questions of how to operate with their teams, boards, families, and themselves.” This led the authors to focus on “leading from the inside out” as their core framework for successful leaders.

Leading from the Inside Out

Strovink insisted that the focus on more deeply human, inside-out leadership was not divorced from the strategic context, but rather was a direct consequence of the challenges that modern CEOs face. Strovink said, “Complexity is increasing. At the CEO level there used to be five or six big things that you were worried about. Now there are a dozen. The premium on balance and the emotional conditioning to do that well has gone up.”

Amy Elizabeth Fox, the co-founder of Mobius Executive Leadership and an expert on vertical development, makes a similar connection between the inner journey and the ability to thrive in complexity. Fox said, “Leaders with a strong inner core are more grounded and fluid. They are far better placed to guide an organization through the vast complexity and adaptive demands of the moment.”

The McKinsey authors describe a range of skills that the inside-out leader exhibits, including humility, vulnerability, selflessness, and resilience. Lest one mistakes this collection of traits as “soft,” they also note that the inner journey taken by these leaders imbues them with the confidence to make bold choices and stand up for what they believe is right. Strovink says that striking this balance of being “both bold and empowering” is one of the hallmarks of inside-out leaders: “It is amazing how much comes from their ability to govern themselves and create space within themselves to handle extra stresses and pressures.”

In a similar vein, Potential Project, a global research and leadership development firm with a focus on developing “human leaders,” describes the key task of leadership as “doing hard things in a human way.” Their Human Leader Compass describes a set of leadership mindsets and skills linked to awareness, compassion, and wisdom that leaders should develop to enhance their effectiveness.

Steps on the Journey toward Human Leadership

Both Fox and the McKinsey authors describe leadership as a journey and an exploration that requires both humility and curiosity. Fox said, “In leading from the inside out, executives turn meaningful attention to self-exploration and self-development. This enables them to understand their own emotions and habits, explore their core beliefs and values, and cultivate greater stillness and equanimity.”

Ramesh Srinivasan, another of the McKinsey co-authors, stresses both the importance and the challenge of embarking on this learning journey. “People usually don’t come and share feedback and tell leaders the truth,” Srinivasan said. “Holding up the mirror and helping people deeply reflect on tough issues is not easy.” Leaders must intentionally lower the barriers to receiving this deeper, more personal feedback and cultivate both “truth tellers” and a community of peers with whom they can open up and share challenges.

Srinivasan’s advice to those beginning their career is to start this process early by working on the muscles of humility and curiosity — “ask a lot of questions, be curious, and exercise the obligation to dissent” — and by remembering that learning is a lifelong journey with no end. “As Gandhi said, ‘Live as if you were to die tomorrow. Learn as if you were to live forever.’”

Perhaps the most poignant piece of advice is the one that many leaders will find the hardest to accept: the need to slow down. Fox said that “leading from the inside out asks a leader to embody practices that call them to slowing down, asking deep questions, opening their hearts, and inhabiting a very different rhythm than the hyperdrive most leaders live in.” If the experts are to be believed, those leaders who do manage to achieve this different rhythm will be rewarded — and perhaps achieve a more sustainable and balanced life in the process.

Forbes

The Nigerian Naira's value continues to erode, reflecting a troubling trend that began shortly after President Bola Tinubu took office on May 29, 2023. Yesterday, the currency depreciated to N1,680 per dollar in the parallel market, down from N1,655 on Tuesday, marking another milestone in its downward trajectory.

The official Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) also recorded a significant drop, with the Naira falling to N1,667.42 per dollar. FMDQ data revealed an N8.94 depreciation from Tuesday's rate of N1,658.48. This decline was accompanied by a 39.6% decrease in trading volume, with only $100.47 million exchanged compared to Tuesday's $166.36 million.

The widening gap between the parallel market and NAFEM rates, now at N12.58 per dollar up from N3.48 on Tuesday, underscores the ongoing volatility in Nigeria's foreign exchange market.

This latest depreciation is part of a larger pattern that emerged following President Bola Tinubu's inauguration. One of his first major economic policies was to float the Naira and unify the country's multiple exchange rates. While this move was aimed at attracting foreign investment and stabilizing the currency in the long term, it has led to a sharp devaluation in the short term.

When Tinubu took office, the official exchange rate stood at around N465/$. The subsequent float saw the Naira's value plummet, losing over 70% of its value in less than a year. This rapid devaluation has had far-reaching effects on Nigeria's import-dependent economy, driving up inflation and the cost of living for average Nigerians.

As the Naira approaches the N1,700/$ mark, questions continue to arise about the effectiveness of the current forex policies and what additional measures might be needed to stabilize the currency and the broader economy.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Instant payments in Nigeria's banking sector reached N566.39 trillion in the first seven months of 2024, according to the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS).

In July alone, instant payments surged to N89.50 trillion, a 12.45 percent increase (N9.91 trillion) from the N79.5 trillion recorded in June. This also marked an 89 percent year-on-year growth compared to N47.38 trillion in July 2023.

The total value of instant payments for 2024 so far brings the overall electronic transaction volume to N566.39 trillion. For context, in 2023, the country processed N600 trillion in electronic transactions.

In July, instant payment transaction volume rose by 4 percent, reaching 907.34 billion, compared to 871.66 billion in June. Year-on-year, the volume grew by 22 percent, up from 743.15 billion in July 2023. Additionally, cashless transactions surged to N238.61 trillion in July, a 4.6 percent increase from June’s N228.11 trillion.

A total of 27.56 billion transactions were completed through electronic payment channels in July. NIBSS also reported that point-of-sale (PoS) transactions hit 97.8 billion, with a transaction value of N1 trillion.

The Corporate Accountability and Public Participation Africa (CAPPA) says Coca-Cola’s promise of a $1 billion investment in Nigeria is a hollow pledge.

In a statement on Wednesday signed by Robert Egbe, CAPPA’s media and communication officer, the non-governmental organisation (NGO) said Coca-Cola’s latest investment promise was made to the previous administration under President Muhammadu Buhari, but nothing came of it.

On September 19, Coca-Cola announced a $1 billion investment pledge to Nigeria over a period of five years.

According to CAPPA, the government has embraced the company’s latest pledge with undue fanfare, whereas their presence is allegedly harmful to Nigerians.

“It is a matter of grave concern that the news is once again awash with Coca-Cola’s promise of a $1 billion investment in Nigeria. This is the second time in three years that the company has made this hollow pledge to different ruling governments, and yet it failed to deliver the first time around,” CAPPA said.

“Despite the company’s failure to honour its previous commitment, the government of the day has not only embraced the company’s latest pledge with undue fanfare but also quickly risen to defend its dubious track record of dangling promises that never materialise with evidence.”

‘COCA-COLA USING INVESTMENT RHETORIC TO CLEAN UP POOR IMAGE’

CAPPA accused the company of using investment rhetoric to clean up its “dirty image,” marked by “multiple dishonest trade practices,” as recently revealed by the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC).

“While the government may claim that Coca-Cola couldn’t fulfil its earlier commitment due to a ‘challenging business environment,’ the disturbing truth remains that, beyond its woeful record of unmet financial pledges, Coca-Cola’s presence in Nigeria has been defined more than anything else by its persistent onslaught against public health and regulatory infractions,” CAPPA said.

“In 2017, a Lagos High Court issued a damning judgement against the company, revealing that its products were unfit for consumption as they contain high levels of sunset yellow and benzoic acid which, according to European and American food and drug agencies, can form the carcinogen benzene when combined with ascorbic acid (Vitamin C).

“On this ground, the court mandated the company to place warning labels on its beverages, advising consumers against combining their intake with Vitamin C. But to this day, the corporation has refused to comply with this directive.

“This contempt and disregard for public health and judicial authority should ordinarily disqualify the company from receiving any form of state endorsement, let alone at the highest level of government.

“Moreover, barely two months ago, in July 2024, the FCCPC found Coca-Cola guilty of deceptive trade practices as usual. The Commission’s investigation, which began in 2019, revealed that the company had engaged in false and harmful marketing practices on multiple occasions that could mislead customers.

“For instance, the company had provided false information to the FCCPC in violation of the Commission’s rules and had also deceived consumers by dishonestly selling its ‘Less Sugar’ variant as identical to the original Coca-Cola product.

“Yet, despite being found guilty of violating multiple consumer protection laws and advised to apply remedies and clear product labelling, Coca-Cola has failed to take meaningful steps to correct its actions, further demonstrating its penchant for undermining regulatory interventions.

“To be clear, this promise-fail-promise tactic of Coca-Cola, including its operational character of disregard for national regulations, is not accidental. It is straight out of the big food industry playbook to interfere, undermine, and dilute pro-public health and consumer protection policies.

“Sadly, by endorsing Coca-Cola’s shady investment only months after the FCCPC indicted it, the Nigerian government is not only setting itself up as an image launderer for a dirty corporation but also, unbelievably, undermining and embarrassing its own regulatory authority,” the CAPPA statement said.

According to Akinbode Oluwafemi, executive director, CAPPA, the Nigerian government must ask itself what it truly stands to gain by endorsing the firm.

“The question the Nigerian government must ask itself in light of all this is what truly it stands to gain by endorsing a multinational corporation with a dark history of non-compliance, and whose products are even actively contributing to a public health crisis in the country?” he said.

“Sugar-sweetened beverages, like many of Coca-Cola’s products under such a category, are well known and documented contributors to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as diabetes, obesity, and heart disease, and other associated health conditions that are already straining Nigeria’s healthcare system and economy.

“As such, while the company’s promises of an economic investment may sound appealing, the potential gains pale in comparison to the long-term public health costs and injury that the consumption of its products inflicts on the Nigerian population, as with elsewhere across the world.”

‘SUPPORTING COCA-COLA THREATENS EFFECTIVENESS OF SSB TAX’

Oluwafemi said Coca-Cola’s public support threatens the effectiveness of the sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) tax, which is crucial for saving lives.

“The SSB tax is a vital public health policy that must not be undermined by the sneaky tactics of Coca-Cola to infiltrate public health discussions and weaken enforcement of pro-public health laws through its calculated friendships with state authorities,” CAPPA said.

“The Nigerian state must reconsider its fawning over Coca-Cola, as its snug relationship with the corporation while simultaneously enforcing a pro-public health tax sends mixed signals.

“This kind of messaging is not only dangerous but also threatens the effectiveness of the SSB tax, which is crucial for saving lives.

“Even more so, the government’s fraternisation with the company despite its disrespect for national rules of engagement only serves to embolden the company’s exploitative practices in Nigeria without fear of accountability.

“President Tinubu’s administration has an obligation to protect Nigerians, not act as a cheerleader for companies with a proven history of unethical behaviour.

“We, therefore, call on the government to prioritise the interests of Nigerians by shunning questionable associations with corporate lawbreakers and adversaries of public health.”

Akinbode urge the state to defend public health without scruples and consider genuine ethical investments that rank the well-being of Nigerians over empty promises and profit-driven deception.

On July 1, CAPPA urged the federal government to increase taxes on sugar-sweetened products to protect the health of Nigerians.

The Cable

The Federal Government has raised the monthly allowance for National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) members from N33,000 to N77,000, effective July 2024. The announcement was made Wednesday through a statement posted on the NYSC's official Facebook page.

According to the statement, "The Federal Government has approved the increment of Corps Members’ monthly allowance to Seventy-Seven Thousand Naira (N77,000) with effect from July 2024." This adjustment follows the enactment of the National Minimum Wage (Amendment) Act 2024.

The approval was conveyed in a letter from the National Salaries, Incomes and Wages Commission, dated September 25, 2024, and signed by the Commission's Chairman, Ekpo Nta. The increment follows an earlier advocacy visit made by NYSC Director General, YD Ahmed, to the Commission, where he requested an improved welfare package for corps members.

Ahmed expressed gratitude to the Federal Government, stating that the increase would provide much-needed relief to corps members, boost their morale, and encourage them to contribute even more in service to the nation.

Hezbollah's tunnels and flexible command weather Israel's deadly blows

Hezbollah's flexible chain of command, together with its extensive tunnel network and a vast arsenal of missiles and weapons it has bolstered over the past year, is helping it weather unprecedented Israeli strikes, three sources familiar with the Lebanese militant group's operations said.

Israel's assault on Hezbollah over the past week, including the targeting of senior commanders and the detonation of booby-trapped pagers and walkie-talkies, has left the powerful Lebanese Shiite militant group and political party reeling.

On Friday, Israel killed the commander who founded and led the group's elite Radwan force, Ibrahim Aqil. And since Monday, Lebanon's deadliest day of violence in decades, the health ministry says more than 560 people, among them 50 children, have died in air barrages.

The Israeli military chief of staff Herzi Halevi said on Sunday that Aqil's death had shaken the organisation. Israel says its strikes have also destroyed thousands of Hezbollah rockets and shells.

But two of the sources familiar with Hezbollah operations said the group swiftly appointed replacements for Aqil and other senior figures killed in Friday's airstrike in Beirut's southern suburbs. Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said in an Aug. 1 speech that the group quickly fills gaps whenever a leader is killed.

A fourth source, a Hezbollah official, said the attack on communication devices put 1,500 fighters out of commission because of their injuries, with many having been blinded or had their hands blown off.

While that is a major blow, it represents a fraction of Hezbollah's strength, which a report for the U.S. Congress on Friday put at 40,000-50,000 fighters. Nasrallah has said the group has 100,000 fighters.

Since October, when Hezbollah began firing at Israel in October in support of its ally Hamas in Gaza, it has redeployed fighters to frontline areas in the south, including some from Syria, the three sources said.

It has also been bringing rockets into Lebanon at a fast pace, anticipating a drawn-out conflict, the sources said, adding that the group sought to avoid all out war.

Hezbollah's main supporter and weapons supplier is Iran. The group is the most powerful faction in Tehran's "Axis of Resistance" of allied irregular forces across the Middle East. Many of its weapons are Iranian, Russian or Chinese models.

The sources, who all asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of the matter, did not provide details of the weapons or where they were bought.

Hezbollah's media office did not reply to requests for comment for this story.

Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at the School of Security Studies at King's College London, said that while Hezbollah operations had been disrupted by the past week's attacks, the group's networked organisational structure helped make it an extremely resilient force.

"This is the most formidable enemy Israel has ever faced on the battlefield, not because of numbers and tech but in terms of resilience."

POWERFUL MISSILES

Fighting has escalated this week. Israel killed another top Hezbollah commander, Ibrahim Qubaisi, on Tuesday. For its part, Hezbollah has shown its capacity to continue operations, firing hundreds of rockets towards Israel in ever deeper attacks.

On Wednesday, Hezbollah said it had targeted an Israeli intelligence base near Tel Aviv, more than 100 km (60 miles) from the border. Warning sirens sounded in Tel Aviv as a single surface-to-surface missile was interceptedby air defence systems, the Israeli military said.

The group has yet to say whether it has launched any of its most potent, precision-guided rockets, such as the Fateh-110, an Iranian-made ballistic missile with a range of 250-300 km (341.75 miles). Hezbollah's Fateh-110 have a 450-500 kg warhead, according to a 2018 paper published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Hezbollah's rocket attacks are possible because the chain of command has kept functioning despite the group suffering a brief spell of disarray after the pagers and radios detonated, one of the sources, a senior security official, said.

The three sources said Hezbollah's ability to communicate is underpinned by a dedicated, fixed-line telephone network - which it has described as critical to its communications and continues to work - as well as by other devices.

Many of its fighters were carrying older models of pagers, for example, that were unaffected by last week's attack.

Reuters could not independently verify the information. Most injuries from the exploding pagers were in Beirut, far from the front.

Hezbollah stepped up the use of pagers after banning its fighters from using cellphones on the battlefield in February, in response to commanders being killed in strikes.

If the chain of command breaks, frontline fighters are trained to operate in small, independent clusters comprised of a few villages near the border, capable of fighting Israeli forces for long periods, the senior source added.

That is precisely what happened in 2006, during the last war between Hezbollah and Israel, when the group's fighters held out for weeks, some in frontline villages invaded by Israel.

Israel says it has escalated attacks to degrade Hezbollah's capabilities and make it safe for tens of thousands of displaced Israelis to return to their homes near the Lebanon border, which they fled when Hezbollah began firing rockets on Oct. 8.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government has said it prefers to reach a negotiated agreement that would see Hezbollah withdraw from the border region but stands ready to continue its bombing campaign if Hezbollah refuses, and does not rule out any military options.

Hezbollah's resilience means the fighting has raised fears of a protracted war that could suck in the U.S., Israel's close ally, and Iran - especially if Israel launches, and gets bogged down in, a ground offensive in southern Lebanon.

Israel's military did not respond to a request for comment for this story.

Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian warned on Monday of "irreversible" consequences of a full blown war in the Middle East. A U.S. State Department official said Washington disagreed with Israel's strategy of escalation and sought to reduce tensions.

UNDERGROUND ARSENAL

In what two of the sources said was an indication of how well some of Hezbollah's weapons are hidden, on Sunday rockets were launched from areas of southern Lebanon that had been targeted by Israel shortly before, the two sources said.

Hezbollah is believed to have an underground arsenal and last month published footage that appeared to show its fighters driving trucks with rocket launchers through tunnels. The sources did not specify if the rockets fired on Sunday were launched from underground.

Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said Monday's barrage had destroyed tens of thousands of Hezbollah rockets and munitions.

Israel's military said long-range cruise missiles, rockets with warheads capable of carrying 100kg of explosives, short-range rockets, and explosive UAVs were all struck on Monday.

Reuters could not independently verify the military claims.

Boaz Shapira a researcher at Alma, an Israeli think tank that specializes in Hezbollah, said Israel had yet to target strategic sites such as long-range missiles and drone sites.

"I don't think we are anywhere near finishing this," Shapira said.

Hezbollah's arsenal is believed to comprise some 150,000 rockets, the U.S. Congress report said. Krieg said its most powerful, long-range ballistic missiles were kept below ground.

Hezbollah has spent years building a tunnel network that by Israeli estimates extends for hundreds of kilometres. The Israeli military said Monday's air strikes hit Hezbollah missile launch sites hidden under homes in southern Lebanon.

Hezbollah has said it does not place military infrastructure near civilians. Hezbollah has issued no statement on the impact of Israel's strikes since Monday.

TUNNELS

The group's arsenal and tunnels have expanded since the 2006 war, especially precision guidance systems, leader Nasrallah has said. Hezbollah officials have said the group has used a small part of the arsenal in fighting over the past year.

Israeli officials have said Hezbollah's military infrastructure is tightly meshed into the villages and communities of southern Lebanon, with ammunition and missile launcher pads stored in houses throughout the area. Israel has been pounding some of those villages for months to degrade Hezbollah's capabilities.

Confirmed details on the tunnel network remain scarce.

A 2021 report by Alma, an Israeli think tank that specializes in Hezbollah, said Iran and North Korea both helped build up the network of tunnels in the aftermath of the 2006 war.

Israel has already struggled to root out Hamas commanders and self-reliant fighting units from the tunnels criss-crossing Gaza.

"It is one of our biggest challenges in Gaza, and it is certainly something we could meet in Lebanon," said Carmit Valensi, a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, a think-tank.

Krieg said that unlike Gaza, where most tunnels are manually dug into a sandy soil, the tunnels in Lebanon had been dug deep in mountain rock. "They are far less accessible than in Gaza and even less easy to destroy."

Reuters

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Russia expands category of states subjected to nuclear deterrence — Putin

The proposed updated Russian nuclear doctrine expands the list of states and military unions subject to nuclear deterrence, Russian President Vladimir Putin said.

"The draft document expands the category of states and military unions subject to nuclear deterrence. It updates the list of military threats that require nuclear deterrence measures for their neutralization," Putin said during the Russian Security Council meeting on nuclear deterrence.

The head of state noted that the modern military and political situation is changing rapidly, and Russia must take it into consideration, including the emergence of new sources of military threats and risks for Russia and its allies.

"It is important to predict the development of the situation and to adapt the strategic planning document in accordance with the current reality," the president added.

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Putin issues nuclear warning to the West over strikes on Russia from Ukraine

Putin warns West over nuclear powers supporting strikes

Russia is changing its nuclear doctrine, Putin says

Says conventional attack could lead to nuclear response

Ukraine says Russia has only nuclear blackmail left

President Vladimir Putin warned the West on Wednesday that Russia could use nuclear weapons if it was struck with conventional missiles, and that Moscow would consider any assault on it supported by a nuclear power to be a joint attack.

The decision to change Russia's official nuclear doctrine is the Kremlin's answer to deliberations in the United States and Britain about whether or not to give Ukraine permission to fire conventional Western missiles into Russia.

Putin, opening a meeting of Russia's Security Council, said that the changes were in response to a swiftly changing global landscape which had thrown up new threats and risks for Russia.

The 71-year-old Kremlin chief, the primary decision-maker on Russia's vast nuclear arsenal, said he wanted to underscore one key change in particular.

"It is proposed that aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state, but with the participation or support of a nuclear state, be considered as their joint attack on the Russian Federation," Putin said.

"The conditions for Russia's transition to the use of nuclear weapons are also clearly fixed," Putin said, adding that Moscow would consider such a move if it detected the start of a massive launch of missiles, aircraft or drones against it.

Russia reserved the right to also use nuclear weapons if it or ally Belarus were the subject of aggression, including by conventional weapons, Putin said.

Putin said the clarifications were carefully calibrated and commensurate with the modern military threats facing Russia - confirmation that the nuclear doctrine was changing.

Russia's current published nuclear doctrine, set out in a 2020 decree by Putin, says Russia may use nuclear weapons in case of a nuclear attack by an enemy or a conventional attack that threatens the existence of the state.

The innovations outlined by Putin include a widening of the threats under which Russia would consider a nuclear strike, the inclusion of ally Belarus under the nuclear umbrella and the idea that a rival nuclear power supporting a conventional strike on Russia would also be considered to be attacking it.

The United States in 2022 was so concerned about the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons by Russia that it warned Putin over the consequences of using such weapons, according to Central Intelligence Agency Director Bill Burns.

CONFRONTATION

The 2-1/2-year-old Ukraine war has triggered the gravest confrontation between Russia and the West since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis - considered to be the closest the two Cold War superpowers came to intentional nuclear war.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has been urging Kyiv's allies for months to let Ukraine fire Western missiles, including long-range U.S. ATACMS and British Storm Shadows, deep into Russia to limit Moscow's ability to launch attacks.

With Ukraine losing key towns to gradually advancing Russian forces in the country's east, the war is entering what Russian officials say is the most dangerous phase to date.

Zelenskiy has urged the West to cross and disregard Russia's so-called "red lines", and some Western allies have urged the United States to do just that, though Putin's Russia, which controls just under one-fifth of Ukrainian territory, has warned that the West and Ukraine are risking a global war.

"Russia no longer has any instruments to intimidate the world apart from nuclear blackmail," Andriy Yermak, Zelenskiy's chief of staff, said in response to Putin's remarks. "These instruments will not work."

Putin, who casts the West as a decadent aggressor, and U.S. President Joe Biden, who casts Russia as a corrupt autocracy and Putin as a killer, have both warned that a direct Russia-NATO confrontation could escalate into World War Three. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has also warned of the risk of nuclear war.

Russia is the world's largest nuclear power. Together, Russia and the U.S. control 88% of the world's nuclear warheads.

In his remarks to Russia's Security Council, a type of modern-day politburo of Putin's most powerful officials including influential hawks, Putin said that work on amendments on changing the doctrine had been going on for the past year.

"The nuclear triad remains the most important guarantee of ensuring the security of our state and citizens, an instrument for maintaining strategic parity and balance of power in the world," Putin said.

Russia, he said, would consider using nuclear weapons "upon receiving reliable information about the massive launch of aerospace attack vehicles and their crossing of our state border, meaning strategic or tactical aircraft, cruise missiles, drones, hypersonic and other aircraft."

Generals Olusegun Obasanjo, Ibrahim Babangida, Sani Abacha, and Muhammadu Buhari are Nigeria’s most anti-democratic, anti-federalism, and anti-people rulers since independence. The addition to that roll is President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

Obasanjo, as military head of state, standardised the tradition of wastage, the destruction of the public service, the pillaging of the economy, the mass killing of students, and the imposition of a anti-democracy and anti-federal constitution on Nigerians.

With the exception of Abacha, these rulers oversaw the legalised plundering of Nigeria’s commonwealth in the guise of ‘privatisation’. They also handed over the country to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank (WB). In fact, Obasanjo and Babangida dressed these Western financial institutions in colourful Nigerian attires, and handed over the Federal Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Nigeria, amongst others, to their staff. Tinubu handed over Nigeria’s brain to them.

These rulers inherited the DNA of their father, who invaded and colonised Nigeria. With independence, their father indigenised himself as a Nigerian, married different women, and gave birth to different children. Like their father, they are extremely deceptive, divisive, unforgiving, domineering, and parasitic. They are also anti-democracy, anti-federalism, and anti-development.

Just as their father shot his way to power, so did Obasanjo, Babangida, and Abacha. Tinubu ‘shot’ his way to power with ‘his’ money, in an election rigging match refereed by the Independent National Electoral Commission.

They all claim affinity with democracy but practiced or are practising authoritarianism. They strive to lure the hungry Nigerian mass to sleep by administering on them anaesthetics called palliatives. This soon wears off and the pains return. Maybe the only exception was Abacha, who has been described as: “a man of few words and deadly action”!

Babangida imposed the destructive and deadly International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank’s neoliberalism, even after the society had rejected it. Students, in fact, demonstrated their desire to sacrifice for the development of Nigeria, when they sang: “We like amm (two times)/We we like Nigeria/We like am pass IMF/We like am pass World Bank/n Everything dey for Nigeria/Make we join hands to make Nigeria better/Make we join hands to make Nigeria greater!”

The Babangida action set Nigeria on the path of never-ending crises. Nevertheless, he created, amongst others, the National Directorate of Employment in 1986, to advance vocational training and skills acquisition, rural empowerment and, by extension, employment generation. He also established the Directorate of Food, Roads and Rural Infrastructure in 1986, aimed at mobilising, supporting, and developing rural communities to promote food production, and raise the standard of living of the rural dwellers.

The Babangida administration introduced the Better Life for Rural Women programme in 1987, designed for the improvement of the lives and social statuses of local women. It equally established the Peoples’ Bank of Nigeria in 1989, to provide credit facilities to small traders and businesses, who could not meet the stringent requirements of orthodox commercial banks.

When the the National Association of Nigerian Students (NANS) organised and led national protests against neoliberalism, he provided “SAP Relief” packages to Nigerian workers; created 62,000 jobs for the unemployed; gave “SAP Relief” buses to higher institutions; and provided N20 million grant to federal universities, amongst others.

Unlike his immediate predecessor and successors who glorified IMF and WB, Abacha had a mind of his own, and was, indeed, uncompromising, stubborn, aggressive, and deadly in pursuing his agenda. He denied some Western officials visas, blatantly rejected some of their policies, and retaliated against some of their sanctions.

He inherited an economy with an inflation rate of 87 per cent, negative growth rate of -1.5 per cent, and an interest rate flying at around 25 per cent. Oil price was $18 per barrel, and a debt of $30 billion. But, Abacha succeeded in increasing Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves from $494 million by mid-1993 to $9.6 billion by mid-1997. He reduced Nigeria’s external debts from $36 billion in 1993 to $27 billion by 1997.

Between 1993 and 1995, Abacha grew the agricultural sector at a rate of 7.2 per cent, and, by 5.6 per cent from 1995 to 1997. Agriculture’s contribution to GDP was 32.4 per cent in 1993 and 34.6 per cent in 1997. He maintained a stable exchange rate of N22/$1 for five years, and reduced inflation from 54 per cent to below 10 per cent. The pump price of petrol was stabilised for five years at N11.

Abacha continued with most of Babangida’s social programmes. He also established the Family Support Programme, aimed at providing healthcare service delivery, dealing with women’s fertility issues, child care, and balanced diet for rural families. He established the Family Economic Advancement Programme, charged with providing a platform for accessing credit for agricultural production and processing. It was also aimed at upgrading small and medium enterprises through the formation of local cooperative societies.

Doubtlessly, the Babangida and Abacha social security programmes did not sustainably tackle the problems, but, at least, they showed some concern about the social problems their neoliberal policies created. They had the working poor and vulnerable Nigerians in their dictionaries.

Buhari, for now, remains the most disastrous ruler Nigeria has ever had. He significantly increased the country’s national public debt profile from approximately $63.7 billion in 2015 to $113.42 billion by June 2023. He increased the inflation rate from 15.70 per cent in 2016 to 22.8 per cent in June 2023. In 2016, agriculture contributed 25.23 per cent to the GDP, this increased by less than 1 per cent in September 2023.

Not only did Buhari inflict much suffering and pain on Nigerians, he oversaw the gigantic depletion of our commonwealth, and the employment of ethnic and filial relations in running government businesses. His administration also saw banditry become an industry and, marked an increase in the abduction of school children, kidnapping, rape, desecration of worship places, sacking of villages, destruction of harvests, land seizure, and the killing of security officers by bandits and terrorists.

He had no clearly defined poverty alleviation or social investment programme, as the one ran by his Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs did not impact positively on society.

Tinubu, since May 2023, has been tirelessly striving to overtake Buhari’s disastrous performance. Under Buhari, Nigerians, at least, struggled strenuously to stay in business, buy petrol, pay electricity bills, and feed. His policies, as I wrote elsewhere, were: “bleeding the working and other vulnerable people by enthroning more hunger, poverty, illiteracy and diseases. It is destroying family and societal cohesion by increasing unemployment, straining relationships, delaying or aborting marriages, promoting single parenthood, and inflicting hardship on Nigerian children and youth.”

Tinubu runs a government of palliatives, which as I earlier noted, “enslaves, dehumanises and depersonalises the poor by promoting dependency on the witches/wizards, while discouraging innovation, encouraging laziness, eroding self-sufficiency, and destroying peoples’ initiatives to creatively and sustainably tackle their problems.”

With the increasing disastrous performances of Tinubu, it is no surprise that popular protests are gradually staging a comeback, and a section of the popular masses even think the country was better under military misrule. This longing is disastrous to our national psyche.

The solution lies not with this crop of politicians or their military allies. Not in what described as, “Soja go, Soja come.” The solution lies with us, the people, the society!

** Ahmed Aminu-Ramatu Yusuf worked as deputy director, Cabinet Affairs Office, The Presidency, and retired as General Manager (Administration), Nigerian Meteorological Agency, (NiMet). Email: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.