President Bola Tinubu marked his second anniversary in office Wednesday with bold claims of economic progress, even as international bodies warn of persistent crises and new data reveals the true cost of his reforms on Nigeria's most vulnerable populations.

Economic Gains Questioned Amid Worsening Poverty

While Tinubu declared that "our economic reforms are working" and promised a "greater, more economically stable nation," the reality on the ground tells a starkly different story. His signature policies since 2023—removing petrol subsidies, cutting electricity price subsidies, and implementing two currency devaluations—have triggered what experts describe as the worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation, with inflation soaring beyond 23%.

The human cost of these reforms is becoming increasingly apparent. Nigeria already has 133 million people classified as multidimensionally poor—representing 63% of the population—and World Bank projections indicate that an additional 3.6 million Nigerians will join this devastating statistic by the end of 2025. This means that by year's end, nearly two-thirds of Africa's most populous nation will be trapped in multidimensional poverty, lacking access to basic healthcare, education, and living standards.

Tinubu attempted to justify his harsh measures by claiming they were necessary to prevent "runaway inflation, external debt default, and a plunging Naira and an economy in free-fall." He pointed to a narrowed fiscal deficit, from 5.4% of GDP in 2023 to 3.0% in 2024, and claimed inflation was beginning to ease—though this reduction is largely attributed to statistical rebasing rather than genuine economic improvement.

The World Bank acknowledged that while Nigeria's government reforms are "essential," they have "piled pressure on its people, more than half of whom live in poverty"—a diplomatic way of confirming that Tinubu's policies are causing immediate suffering for promised long-term gains.

Security Claims Contradicted by Mounting Violence

Tinubu's claims of improved security ring hollow against mounting evidence of escalating violence. The president boasted that banditry in Nigeria's northwest had been curbed, highways were safer, and farmers were "back tilling the land." However, over 1.3 million people were internally displaced in the Northcentral and Northwest regions by April 2024, up from nearly 1.1 million in December 2023.

The statistics are devastating. Amnesty International reported that at least 10,217 people have been killed in attacks by gunmen during Tinubu's two years in office. Between December 2023 and February 2024 alone, gunmen attacked communities in Plateau state, killing 1,333 people, including 260 children. These figures expose the hollow nature of Tinubu's security claims and highlight the government's inability to protect its citizens.

Human Rights Deterioration Under APC Rule

Nigeria's human rights situation continues to deteriorate under Tinubu's All Progressives Congress (APC) government. Security challenges, including insurgencies, kidnappings, and communal violence, threaten the human rights of millions of Nigerians, while military and law enforcement agencies often engage in extrajudicial killings, torture, and other abuses.

The government's response to criticism and dissent has become increasingly authoritarian. Anti-police brutality protests have been met with violent crackdowns, and allegations of forced abortions and infanticide in conflict zones remain uninvestigated. The pattern suggests a government more interested in suppressing dissent than addressing legitimate grievances.

Threat of One-Party Dominance

The APC's endorsement of Tinubu for a second and final term in the 2027 elections raises serious concerns about Nigeria's democratic trajectory. With the party's control over federal institutions, its ability to deploy state resources for electoral advantage, and its increasingly authoritarian tendencies, Nigeria faces the real prospect of entrenched one-party rule.

The combination of economic policies that impoverish the majority while enriching the few, systematic human rights violations, and the suppression of political opposition creates a dangerous cocktail that threatens Nigeria's democratic foundations. The APC's dominance, coupled with weak opposition parties and compromised electoral institutions, suggests Nigeria may be sliding toward authoritarian governance disguised as democracy.

A Nation at a Crossroads

As Tinubu celebrates his economic "achievements," Nigeria finds itself at a critical juncture. With nearly 140 million people expected to be in multidimensional poverty by year's end, escalating violence claiming thousands of lives, deteriorating human rights conditions, and the specter of one-party rule looming, the president's anniversary rhetoric stands in stark contrast to the lived reality of ordinary Nigerians.

The question remains whether Nigeria's democratic institutions can withstand the pressures of economic hardship, security crises, and authoritarian drift, or whether the country will join the ranks of African nations where democracy exists only in name while real power is concentrated in the hands of a dominant party that has lost touch with the suffering of its people.

The World Bank may praise Nigeria's fiscal improvements, but for the 3.6 million Nigerians expected to join the ranks of the multidimensionally poor this year, such macroeconomic victories offer little comfort. Their reality—and that of the 133 million already trapped in poverty—tells the true story of Tinubu's first two years: economic policies that prioritize international creditors over domestic welfare, security strategies that fail to protect citizens, and a political trajectory that threatens to consolidate power at the expense of democratic accountability.