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Nigeria's GDP figures from 2010 to 2027 reveal striking contrasts in economic performance across three presidential administrations. This analysis examines the economic trends, contributing factors, and implications for Africa's most populous nation.

The Jonathan Era (2010-2014): Robust Growth

President Goodluck Jonathan's administration oversaw a period of remarkable economic expansion, with GDP growing by 53.97% over five years. Starting at $374.10 billion in 2010, the economy reached $576.00 billion by 2014, representing consistent year-on-year growth.

Key drivers:

- Oil boom: High global oil prices (averaging over $100/barrel for much of this period) significantly benefited Nigeria as a major oil producer

- Agricultural reforms: The Agricultural Transformation Agenda boosted domestic food production

- Relative political stability: Creating a conducive environment for business and investment

- Financial sector reforms: Following the 2009 banking crisis, strengthened the financial system.

The Buhari Years (2015-2023): Economic Contraction and Stagnation

President Muhammadu Buhari's administration experienced a cumulative GDP decline of 3.61% over eight years. The economy contracted sharply from $494.31 billion in 2015 to $405.02 billion in 2016, never regaining the peak levels seen during Jonathan's tenure.

Key challenges:

- Oil price crash: Global oil prices plummeted in 2014-2015, severely impacting government revenue

- Foreign exchange crisis: Currency management policies led to multiple exchange rates and dollar shortages

- Security concerns: Boko Haram insurgency and other conflicts disrupted economic activities

- COVID-19 pandemic: Further contracted the economy in 2020 by 1.8%

- Policy uncertainty: Delayed cabinet formation and policy inconsistencies affected investor confidence

Despite modest recovery toward the end of Buhari's tenure, with GDP reaching $476.47 billion in 2022, the economy remained below 2014 levels.

The Tinubu Trajectory (2023-2027): Severe Contraction

President Bola Tinubu's administration has witnessed (and is projected to continue seeing) the most dramatic economic contraction, with a projected 41.78% decline from 2023 to 2027, according to IMF figures.

Notable factors:

- Currency devaluation: The naira lost significant value against major currencies

- Subsidy removal: Elimination of fuel subsidies shocked the economy

- Foreign exchange reforms: Unification of exchange rates caused significant adjustment pains

- Inflation spike: Reaching multi-decade highs, eroding purchasing power

- Investment caution: Both domestic and foreign investors adopting wait-and-see approaches

Comparative Analysis and Implications

1. Stark contrasts: The three administrations present remarkably different economic trajectories - robust growth under Jonathan, stagnation under Buhari, and severe contraction under Tinubu.

2. External vs. internal factors: While external factors like oil prices significantly influenced all three periods, policy choices amplified or mitigated these effects.

3. GDP in dollar terms vs. real growth: These figures reflect both economic performance and currency valuation. The sharp decline during Tinubu's administration partly reflects naira devaluation rather than solely reduced economic activity.

4. Recovery prospects: IMF projections suggest modest growth will begin in 2025-2027, but GDP in dollar terms will remain far below historical peaks.

5. Per capita implications: With Nigeria's rapidly growing population, the GDP contractions translate to even steeper declines in per capita terms, affecting living standards.

Looking Forward

The Nigerian economy faces significant challenges requiring structural reforms. The country's ability to diversify beyond oil, address security concerns, manage inflation, and create an enabling business environment will determine whether it can return to sustained growth.

The projections suggest Nigeria will need to implement significant policy changes to reverse the current trajectory and return to the growth levels seen in the early 2010s.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

The cost of cooking one pot of jollof rice in Nigeria has jumped from N21,300 in September 2024 to N25,486 in March 2025.

This is about a 19 per cent increase in the price of the popular dish.

This was revealed in the latest SBM Jollof Index report titled “Staple Under Stress.”

According to SBM Intelligence, a research and communications group, it looked at how food prices changed between the last quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025.

The report disclosed that the rising prices of key ingredients like pepper, onions, turkey, beef, and rice are the main reasons for the increase.

The SBM Jollof Index tracks how much it costs to cook jollof rice, which is a common Nigerian meal, and uses it to monitor changes in food prices across the country.

The report said protein, especially turkey, remains one of the most expensive parts of the meal.

“Turkey now costs between N8,000 and N10,500 per kilo, a big jump from the N1,500 to N1,700 it cost back in 2016,” the report stated.

It also blamed the rise in food prices on insecurity in food-producing areas, which has made it harder to get farm products to markets.

It added that high transport and energy costs are also pushing prices higher.

The report looked at how much it costs to cook a pot of jollof rice for a family of five across 13 markets in Nigeria, comparing figures from September 2024 to March 2025.

While some areas saw stable prices briefly in late 2024, food prices went up again in early 2025.

“For instance, petrol prices have remained elevated, and electricity tariffs for Band A users have increased, adding to household financial strain. Insecurity continues to be a pressing concern, with incidents such as the killing of farmers in Benue, Borno and Plateau States disrupting agricultural activities and limiting the local food supply.

“The national average rose by 19.7 per cent, increasing from N21,300 in September to N25,486 in March, highlighting worsening food inflation and its deepening impact on household nutrition and spending,” the report said.

 

Punch

Air Peace has announced the suspension of all its domestic flight operations due to the ongoing strike by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet).

In a statement released on Wednesday, the airline cited the lack of critical QNH (barometric pressure) data—essential for safe landings—as the reason for grounding its fleet.

“Due to the ongoing NiMet strike and the unavailability of QNH reports required for safe landings, Air Peace has suspended all flight operations nationwide until the strike is over,” the airline said.

The carrier emphasized that passenger safety remains its top priority and promised to keep the public informed as the situation develops.

Prior to the announcement, Air Peace had warned of possible delays and cancellations due to the industrial action. It also stated that it is working closely with stakeholders to mitigate the impact on passengers.

NiMet staff began an indefinite nationwide strike on Wednesday over unresolved welfare concerns. These include the agency’s alleged failure to implement agreed financial allowances, wage awards, and backlog payments from the 2019 minimum wage review.

The striking workers also accused NiMet’s management of withholding essential documents, excluding certain staff from previous payments, and neglecting staff training needs in favor of executive retreats.

Palestinian president urges Hamas to lay down arms

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas called on Hamas on Wednesday to lay down arms and hand the running of Gaza to his Palestinian Authority, part of efforts to answer international doubts over the authority's role at a key moment for the region.

Abbas was speaking at a leadership council where he is expected this week to name a successor amid pressure from Western and Arab powers concerned about the PA's ability to play a viable-long term role in peace efforts.

While Abbas had previously called on Hamas to put its forces under the PA's control, he has not done so since the start of the war in Gaza, when the militant group's gunmen attacked Israel, prompting fierce military retaliation by Israel.

Hamas killed around 1,200 people and seized about 250 hostages in its October 7, 2023 attack, according to Israeli tallies. Israel's campaign has killed more than 50,000 people, local health authorities say, and left much of Gaza in ruins.

Diplomatic efforts to craft a plan for Gaza's future have focused on pushing aside Hamas but Israel has also said it will not accept any role for the PA, which exercises limited autonomy in the West Bank.

"Hamas must hand over (its) Gaza responsibilities and hand over its arms to the responsibility of the Palestinian Authority and transform into a political party," said Abbas.

Hamas, which ousted the PA from Gaza during a brief civil war in 2007, has refused calls in recent months by Israel and the United States to lay down its arms.

PRESSURE TO NAME A SUCCESSOR

Abbas was speaking to the Central Council of the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), which holds observer status at the United Nations as the legitimate representative of the Palestinian people and dominates the PA.

Abbas, 89, took over the Palestinian leadership after the death of veteran PLO leader Yasser Arafat in 2004. He has for years resisted naming a deputy or successor but the war in Gaza has intensified pressure for him to do so.

Last month, Arab states proposed a post-war plan for Gaza to be temporarily run by a committee before being returned to the PA's control. The United States, European Union and Gulf monarchies expected to play a role in financing any post-war reconstruction of Gaza have repeatedly urged PA reform.

Abbas has criticised the Hamas-led attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, which he said gave Israel a pretext to destroy Gaza. Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in Gaza after the Hamas-led attack.

 

Reuters

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Trump says 'inflammatory' Zelenskyy statement on Crimea prolongs war with Russia

President Donald Trump slammed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s statement on Crimea, saying it was "very harmful" to peacemaking efforts.

"It’s inflammatory statements like Zelenskyy’s that make it so difficult to settle this war," Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social. "He has nothing to boast about! The situation for Ukraine is dire — He can have peace or, he can fight for another three years before losing the whole country."

Trump also rejected Zelenskyy’s red line in the Truth Social post, saying it was "not even a point of discussion," as the territory was "lost years ago" under then-President Barack Obama.

American officials have apparently floated the idea of recognizing Russia's control of Crimea, a territory that Russia seized in 2014, as part of a ceasefire proposal. This would also involve the freezing of current frontlines. 

In 2022, Zelenskyy said that the "Russian war against Ukraine and against the entire free Europe began with Crimea and must end with Crimea — and its liberation," Axios reported. He reiterated this stance on Tuesday, shutting down the idea that Ukraine would recognize Russian control of Crimea.

"Ukraine will not legally recognize the occupation of Crimea," Zelenskyy said at a press conference here on Tuesday, according to the Wall Street Journal. "There’s nothing to talk about here. This is against our constitution."

This is not the first time Trump has criticized Zelenskyy’s statements about the war. During their infamous meeting in the Oval Office on Feb. 28, Trump said that Zelenskyy’s "hatred" of Russian President Vladimir Putin was making it "very tough" to make a deal.

"You see the hatred he's got for Putin, it's very tough for me to make a deal with that kind of hate, he's got tremendous hatred," Trump told reporters. "And I understand that, but I can tell you the other side isn't exactly in love with, you know, him either."

Trump appeared to allude to the Oval Office meeting in his Truth Social post, calling Zelenskyy "the man with no cards to play." This echoed Trump’s remark during the tense February meeting in which he said that Zelenskyy didn’t "have the cards" to make major demands in peace talks.

While Zelenskyy has made his demands clear, it remains uncertain what might persuade Putin to agree to a ceasefire. Although Trump administration officials have stated that they have had productive conversations with Putin, they have yet to get Russia to agree to a ceasefire proposal.

Earlier on Wednesday, Vice President JD Vance suggested that the U.S. was prepared to walk away from peace talks if Ukraine and Russia did not reach a deal soon.

 

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Russia isn’t seeking Zelensky’s removal – Kremlin

Ukrainian officials in the future could legally challenge any agreements signed by Vladimir Zelensky, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said. Despite this, he said Russia is not demanding that Zelensky step down.

Moscow has repeatedly rejected Zelensky’s legitimacy since his presidential term lapsed last May. He has since postponed elections with successive extensions of martial law roughly every three months. Ukraine’s parliament supported the latest extension last week.

In an interview with French weekly Le Point published on Wednesday, Peskov was asked whether Russia was demanding the Ukrainian leader’s resignation.

”It’s not one of our demands, but even if an agreement were signed with Zelensky today, people could come forward later in Ukraine and legally challenge his legitimacy,” the spokesman said.

”This is in relation to martial law and certain articles of the Ukrainian Constitution... The role of the Rada is enshrined in the constitution, not that of the president,” Peskov added.

Moscow maintains that the Ukrainian constitution allows Zelensky to transfer presidential authority to the current speaker of Ukraine’s parliament, the Rada.

Russia does not insist on the Ukrainian leader stepping down as a precondition to starting bilateral talks, Russian President Vladimir Putin said late last year. However, any final document would have to be signed with the de jure leader of Ukraine, he said.

”But if we ever get to the point of signing a document, it can only be done with the representatives of legitimate authorities, that is the bottom line,” Putin said.

Russian officials have also pointed out that another hurdle to potential talks between Moscow and Kiev is Zelensky’s decree banning any negotiations with Putin.

No direct talks between Russia and Ukraine have taken place since the collapse of the Istanbul negotiations in 2022. Then UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson convinced Kiev to stop diplomacy and keep fighting, according to the head of Kiev’s delegation, David Arakhamia.

 

Fox News/RT

Thursday, 24 April 2025 04:17

Nobody is talking about you - Tola Adeniyi

Most times, in our self-absorption, we assume that people are talking about us. When some of us enter a social gathering, we are so self-conscious in our exaggerated self-importance that we think that all eyes at the party are centred on us especially so, if we believed the designer-dress we adorned was the rarest attire in town.

Actors, writers, newscasters, musicians and other artistes engaged in various genres of the performing arts belong in this category of people who believe that the world owes them attention and notice.

Politicians, notorious for flaunting their presence on captured citizens also belong in the category of people who believe that they are always the centre of people’s attention.

Another category of people are the nouveau riche, those who suddenly stumbled on wealth and thought that everybody in the gathering ought to recognize that a billionaire has arrived as one of special dignitaries. They believe the gold or golden chain dangling on their chests should be evidence enough of the wearer’s status!

No! You are the one noticing yourself! You are the one who assume, it is an assumption, that you are being noticed and everybody else in the gathering had suspended their lives to watch you.

Human beings are generally pre-occupied with various degrees of challenges in their personal lives that they hardly bother to expend their thoughts on other people. They are not concerned about your presence.

What is most laughable is for people in their 70s and 80s, or even beyond that age bracket still craving for recognition. Most human beings that are talked about or discussed in serious circles are people who had made their marks in their 30s, 40s or in few cases, in their 60s. If at age 70 or 80 one is still under the illusion that the life that had passed them in their mid-life could still be lived in the evening or sun-set of their lives, they must be living in a fool’s paradise.

This brings me to the kernel of this essay. We are talking of people who live in self-delusion that members of their families, members of their extended families, members of their villages or old acquaintances and former colleagues are talking about them. Wherever they are, they are constantly enamoured with the thought that someone somewhere or some people somewhere must be talking about them.

Some people, maybe they make an unusual appearance in a newspaper story, or they appear in the footnote of television news or they are just appointed or elected as an official of an organization [which no one other than the members of that organization knows anything about]  begin to nurse this self-elevated feeling that they have suddenly become ‘talk of the town’.

It is a serious matter.

Quite a number of people on the other hand lose their confidence, their self-esteem because they suspect that other people are talking about them. It could be a sign of inferiority complex or a total lack of self-confidence when a woman feels shy to walk straight to the altar in a church gathering or when someone is called upstage to receive a prize and he or she starts shuffling their feet. It is a thought in their subconscious that suggests to them that everyone in the gathering is talking about them.

It is a carry-over of this kind of mind-set which makes some people gloat at the airport or at any group-event and they start screaming at whoever is perceived to have crossed their redline with rhetoric like ‘Do you know who I am?’ Comeon! If you don’t know who you are, who cares?

People who spend a life time imagining that other people are talking about them should please learn some modesty or if such a feeling is due to lack of confidence, they should buckle-up and dismiss the notion that the world cares about them.

There are millions of organizations, NGOs and other agencies all over the world with their leaderships and Chief  Operating Officers and it is therefore ludicrous for a leader of any of such organizations to believe that the world is talking about them.

There are presidents, prime ministers and heads of state whose countries are hardly recognized on the world map. Yet, some of these back of the wood leaders believe that the world is talking about them. And so it is with some village champions who delude themselves with the thought that they are the centre of discussions in various homes in the country.

Pathological insecurity which drives some people to crave for attention also makes people feel that they are being talked about at gatherings or even behind their back.

Please relax.

Nobody is talking about you!

** Tola Adeniyi, veteran journalist, is Chairman/Managing Consultant, The Knowledge Plaza

For a sermon that urges people to “understand their terrain”, it is ironic how many things Pastor Poju Oyemade got wrong in his message that compares realities between Nigeria and the USA. Most of the blowback to the respected pastor focuses on the controversial claim that Nigerian doctors are trained with a mere N500,000, but his sermon contains the same fallacious claims Nigerian leaders make when they relativise their country with advanced economies. It is one thing for the average talker on social media to construe subsidised medical education as a government charity to doctors, but it is another thing when a cleric repeats it. How come those who mouth these things never stop to ask why the government at the state and federal levels chooses to subsidise rather than demand full monetary value?

Nigerian universities, public or private, cannot come anywhere close to medical training in US schools simply because of affordability. For an under-producing economy, there is a practical limit to what can be charged if you want people to be able to afford medical training. Already, we are a society short of doctors; erecting any more financial barriers in their training system will be hugely detrimental. It is in the interest of the government and society to keep the costs of doctor training low enough. Can the existing arrangement be better structured to enhance value for the parties involved? Absolutely! But we cannot progress by making misleading arguments that fail to weigh the current calibration of interests by the parties involved.

In addition to the affordability, countries where they charge far more for medical training are incomparable to Nigeria in terms of training facilities and amenities. Do we want to compare Johns Hopkins Medical School with even our UCH, where their electricity supply was cut off for 100 days plus? It was just in January that medical students at UCH protested the prolonged power outage. When you listen to the heartbreaking accounts of how they coped during that dark period, you will be amused that someone thought comparing us with a country where no one worries over something as basic as electricity makes for a logical argument. Doctors at Johns Hopkins pay more, but their training also returns value for money. Can the same be said of Nigerian doctors? How many times has Poju heard of doctors in the USA going on strike over salaries, like they frequently do in Nigeria? Even our leaders know the difference, and that is why successive presidents opt for foreign hospitals rather than local ones staffed with N500,000 trained doctors!

Some of the arguments that Poju made in that video reprise what you read on social media by netizens, given to blindly defending Nigeria. One of them is that Nigerians work harder abroad while those at home are shiftless. He specifically said, “If you ask a Nigerian to do two jobs, he will curse your life out.” Really? Does the opportunity to take multiple jobs exist for Nigerians as it does for their counterparts elsewhere? To have a society where people can take multiple jobs, you must also have a productive economy that rewards. When the pastor looks around in his Lagos abode and sees the thousands of people who leave their homes at 4am to return at night, does he think they remain poor because they do not do enough?

Since the pastor’s data on Nigerians’ work culture is anecdotal, let me offer him one too. The other day, a well-meaning activist shared a video of herself scolding a mother who had brought her underage daughter to assist her in her sweeping job at 5am. We later learned from that poor mother that she leaves her home in Oworo by 3am to resume at the job at Ikoyin by 5am, and for a salary of N19,800! Will Poju agree that such a woman’s poverty is a consequence of her not taking a second job or driving for Uber? I can offer him more examples of how Nigeria’s problem of undervaluing labour contributes to the poor work culture. Once, I wrote a column on the poor remuneration of labour in Nigeria and I was shocked when several readers got back to me with figures of what they earn across sectors. The details were so ridiculous; I do not know how possible it is to survive on those salaries. For people to raise families on those amounts, they must already work on multiple fronts.

Before we accuse Nigerians of laziness compared to their immigrant counterparts, let us be sure that we have provided them with similar opportunities, but they failed to take them. Each time I think of the Oworo-to-Ikoyi woman’s 11-year-old daughter who joins her mother to do a menial task for a pittance, I wonder how exhausted she must be by a life that has not even started! If she grows up to despise work, some privileged person who does not know where she has been will compare her to her mate in the USA and conclude she is “lazy”. I am admittedly sensitive to an unnuanced comparison between Nigerians at home and abroad.

Poju made an important point about “employment data”, which he says does not capture the reality of Nigeria’s underground economy. I agree with him on that score. Truly, we can make a legitimate argument that the mathematics of “less than a dollar per day”, which international organisations use to count the number of poor people in the third world, focuses too much on what we lack at the expense of what we have. Those measurement scales are designed to be universal and can therefore elide the complexities of people’s lives in their respective countries. Yet, that should not becloud the reality of the harshness of our economic situation. If we decide to calibrate our own barometer for calculating poverty in the country, it should be to more accurately pinpoint where the problem lies and how it might be addressed, rather than being merely defensive against external agents.

We are a society so invested in faux patriotism that when we challenge poverty figures, we do so simply to contend with the international organisations that calculated them and not necessarily because we have developed a better understanding of the problem. You will hear economic advisors share spurious examples, such as the price of a bottle of Coke in the USA or how much a plate of food in Lekki Phase One costs. Those are unsophisticated understandings of what constitutes poverty in the world and its realistic effects in a modern world. Even Poju had yet another anecdote of a woman who bought wigs to prove that Nigeria might not be as poor. If a person can invest enough capital to sell wigs at N250,000 each, can she really be classified as part of the country’s informal economy system?

The people who feel the effects of these issues keenly and express their angst on social media are not, contrary to Oyemade’s wild assertion, being “programmed to hate their country”. That claim misunderstands the social terrain that precipitates these discussions and the issues that will not disappear simply because people engage in some syrupy positive speak. It is not self-hatred, expressing frustrations with your country. Those who act otherwise are not necessarily patriotic; they are just partisan. Many of them will turn coat the day the government they dislike comes to power.

It is also a part of the expression of our citizenship to stand up to a country that diminishes us. James Baldwin once said, “I love America more than any other country in this world, and, exactly for this reason, I insist on the right to criticise her perpetually.” As a cleric, Oyemade must also know that not every prophet in the Bible spoke peace to Israel at its crucial moments. Some denounced their homeland with curses. Was that (self-)hate or exhortation to righteousness? Those who still criticise Nigeria do so because they care and do not want to see it drown in injustices. I will take that over their indifference any day.

 

Punch

A new report by the Human and Environmental Development Agenda (HEDA Resource Centre) reveals that many Nigerians perceive their country's judicial system as corrupt, difficult to access, and susceptible to political influence. Released on Tuesday in Lagos, the report titled "Voices for Justice: A Civic Lens on Nigeria's Judicial System – Documenting Public Experiences, Opinions, and Reform Demands" represents the fifth edition of HEDA's Leadership Approval Rating series. Executive Secretary Sulaimon Arigbabu presented the findings, which are based on a nationwide survey of 1,357 respondents across all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. The results highlight significant public dissatisfaction with the justice system. "Young people are clearly engaged, with 57 percent of respondents aged between 18 and 35," Arigbabu noted. "Yet, 50 percent of participants said they had never interacted with the courts. Only 12.6 percent rated the judiciary as highly accessible, while 36.5 percent described accessibility as very low." When citizens did engage with courts, it was primarily for administrative purposes like obtaining affidavits or resolving land disputes rather than seeking more substantive justice. The survey exposed concerning trends regarding judicial integrity. Nearly half (49 percent) of court users admitted to paying or "sorting" court officials, while 65.4 percent characterized judicial corruption as high or extremely high. Only 42.3 percent of respondents believed court decisions were based on merit, with many citing persistent delays and perceived bias as major issues. Trust in legal professionals was also low, with 64 percent of respondents saying lawyers contribute to judicial corruption and only 29 percent viewing judges as impartial. Additionally, 62 percent felt judges were violating judicial ethics by failing to "remain heard and not seen." High-profile and political cases were identified as particular areas of concern, with 63.4 percent of respondents believing these cases expose judges to corruption. Nearly half (48.9 percent) said such cases received priority treatment at the expense of ordinary matters, contributing to extended delays in accessing justice. While 59 percent of respondents acknowledged that financial autonomy had moderately improved judicial independence, only 17 percent expressed confidence in the National Judicial Council's ability to discipline judges who violate standards. Despite improvements in the judiciary's financial autonomy, respondents indicated this has not translated to greater transparency or accountability. The report also found that more than 70 percent of respondents did not know how to report judicial misconduct.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

The International Monetary Fund has lowered its economic growth projection for Nigeria, citing falling oil prices as a primary factor behind the adjustment.

According to the IMF's April 2025 World Economic Outlook report published Tuesday, Nigeria's real GDP is now forecast to grow by 3.0 percent in 2025, down from the previous estimate of 3.2 percent. This revised figure also falls below the 3.4 percent growth estimated for 2024, with a further slowdown to 2.7 percent anticipated in 2026.

The IMF explained that the downgrade reflects how declining oil prices are affecting Nigeria's fiscal and external positions, emphasizing that energy exports continue to be the country's main source of foreign exchange and government revenue.

"For sub-Saharan Africa, growth is expected to decline slightly from 4 percent in 2024 to 3.8 percent in 2025 and recover modestly in 2026, lifting to 4.2 percent," the report stated. "Among the larger economies, the growth forecast in Nigeria is revised downward by 0.2 percentage point for 2025 and 0.3 percentage point for 2026, owing to lower oil prices."

While Nigeria is maintaining a current account surplus, its external position is expected to weaken in coming years. The IMF projects the country's current account balance will decrease from 9.1 percent of GDP in 2024 to 6.9 percent in 2025, dropping further to 5.2 percent in 2026.

The Central Bank of Nigeria recently reported a balance of payments surplus of $6.83 billion for 2024, driven by a goods trade surplus of $13.17 billion. However, these surpluses may not be sustainable according to the latest IMF projections.

Investment bank JP Morgan has warned that Nigeria could slip into a current account deficit if oil prices remain below the fiscal breakeven benchmark of $60 per barrel. Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings offered a more optimistic view, projecting that Nigeria's current account surplus will average 3.3 percent between 2025 and 2026, supported by improved refining capacity and ongoing energy sector reforms.

Regarding inflation, the IMF forecasts that Nigeria's headline inflation will average 26.5 percent in 2025—down from 33.2 percent in 2024—but could surge to 37.0 percent in 2026.

These projections follow the National Bureau of Statistics' rebasing of the Consumer Price Index in January 2025, which updated the base year from 2009 to 2024. After rebasing, inflation eased to 24.48 percent in January from 34.80 percent in December 2024, falling further to 23.18 percent in February before rising again to 24.23 percent in March.

The Central Bank of Nigeria maintained its Monetary Policy Rate at 27.5 percent in February to contain inflation, though it may need to implement further rate hikes as inflation and money supply increased in March 2025.

The IMF also highlighted concerns about weak income growth among Nigerians. It projects that Nigeria's real output per capita will grow by just 0.6 percent in 2025 and 0.3 percent in 2026, indicating limited improvements in living standards. These figures remain below the Sub-Saharan African average, underscoring the slow translation of economic growth into improved household incomes.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Residents of Kano, Katsina and Jigawa states have been undergoing hardship following cuts in power supply by the Kano Electricity Distribution Company (KEDCO).

They said in the last three days, they got power supply for between two and three hours daily.

This is just as several Small-Scale Enterprises (SMEs) in the states said they were facing difficulties operating due to poor power supply and shortages.

Daily Trust’s findings revealed that businesses like welding, tailoring, phone charging, ice making and other small trades have been thrown into difficulties due to the shortage in electricity supply while others don’t even receive any power supply from the distribution company for days.

The KEDCO has apologised for the poor supply and blamed it on a system upgrade on its critical distribution infrastructure and vegetation control on electricity feeders requiring safe working space for its engineers.

Residents in the affected states have also been groaning as several basic amenities such as water supply and others are affected.

Water vendors increase price in Kano

In Kano State, a resident of Hotoro North in Nassarawa Local Government Area, Gambo Muhammad, said 25 litres of water sold at N70 before the shortage is now selling at N120 due to the power shortage.

“We are finding it very difficult to get access to affordable drinking water here. The main source of water in Kano is through boreholes and these boreholes are being powered by electricity. Therefore, without power supply, operators of the water businesses were forced to use other sources, which are expensive to operate and as such, water vendors incur additional charges which necessitate an increase in price of the water. To make it worse, not every centre can adequately afford it and that has made the water a little bit scarce in some places,” he said.

In some places, it was gathered that one had to wake up as early as 6:00am to look for a water vendor, while some water vendors claimed that they had to spend the night in the queue just to get their supply for the day.

It was also revealed that the ice block made from sachet water selling at N100 is now N200 per piece.

Why poor power supply?

Speaking on the poor supply in the state, the Head, Corporate Communications of KEDCO, Sani Bala Sani, in a statement on Saturday, blamed the poor supply to the ongoing network upgrades in some of its critical distribution infrastructure.

While apologising for the continuous outage, Sani said the company is also engaging in vegetation control on its feeders, which require safe working space for its engineers.

“We wish to sincerely apologise to our valued customers for the slight drop in power supply currently experienced across our franchise area….

“Recall that we have made significant progress in enhancing electricity distribution, and the results are evident, with longer hours of uninterrupted power, quicker response times, and better service delivery.

“As we remain committed to maintaining and even surpassing these improvements and in view of the forthcoming rainy season, it became necessary to carry out the upgrades to forestall any network disruptions.

“We sincerely regret all inconveniences caused, while assuring you that normal supply shall be restored as soon as the work is completed. We appreciate your understanding and patience.

Welder loses ‘mouthwatering contract’ in Jigawa

In Jigawa State, people have resorted to the use of abandoned wells to source for water and also various businesses such as welding and other related businesses have been grounded due to shortage of power supply. It was also gathered that the shortage had affected the price of some commodities such as cooking oil, ice blocks and phone charging as operators had increased their charges to cover the extra expenditure they incurred.

According to a water vendor, Sani Talle, electricity has been elusive in his area for three days and thus has not loaded his truck due to lack of water as a result of power shortage in the state. He explained that the power shortage has forced many water vendors to abandon their trucks and look for other things to be able to keep body and soul alive.

“They only provide electricity two or three hours a day, and in Jigawa here, the source of water is usually the boreholes and you can imagine the volume of water a two-hour power supply can pump. For three days now, I have been sitting down because there is no water to sell. If you go round, you will find out people are now using well water for their daily usage,” he said.

He added that there are many vendors like him who are considering adopting other means of survival and abandoning their vendor work as electricity supply is always going down.

On his part, Jamilu Shuwarin, a welder said he does nothing in his shop daily due to the power outage.

“I open in the morning and close in the evening without doing anything. I have lost a mouthwatering contract to someone who has more capital than me and can work with big electricity generating machines.”

He said his situation has made feeding his family difficult as he couldn’t afford to complement the shortage of electricity with other sources of power supply.

Netizens react

The conversation has also made waves on Nigeria’s cybersphere with netizens complaining how long it took for KEDCO to speak on the poor power supply.

Writing under an X post of KEDCO, Abdulmalik Attah described the position of the company as a ‘story’, adding that the situation means there wouldn’t be electricity in the franchise states for three weeks if the maintenance lasted that long.

Another X user, Muhammad Madaka, said the notice is coming late and is basically useless.

“It is after people have been complaining seriously you decided to come up with this excuse of a notice, no timeframe of when the supposed upgrade will be done.”

Rabiu Adam, who tagged the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) in his comment, alleged that KEDCO is prioritising Kano as Katsina has always suffered at the hands of KEDCO.

“Even the KEDCO staff in Katsina don’t know the reason for the power outage. Almost a week of no supply and calling it a slight drop is crazy.”

Ibrahim Salisu Jibia said he is not happy with the current situation as the GRA feeder in Katsina supplying electricity to his house has gone for three days, keeping residents in darkness. “Something needs to be done please,” he pleaded.

SMEs shut down in Katsina

In Katsina State, the situation is similar, as residents claimed that they don’t get electricity supply that lasts for three hours. Residents of the state revealed that it is disheartening the rate at which SMEs are shutting down their businesses due to poor electricity supply.

NERC fines 8 DisCos

This is coming two weeks after the NERC announced it had fined eight electricity Distribution Companies (DisCos) N628,031,583.94 (million) for violating its capping order on estimated bills for unmetered customers.

According to NERC, the companies, which included KEDCO, were fined in pursuant to section 34(1)(d) of the Electricity Act 2023 (“EA 2023”) and for not to fully complying with the monthly energy caps issued by the commission between July – September 2024 (2024/Q3).

Others include Abuja, Eko, Enugu, Ikeja, Jos, Kaduna, and Yola DisCos.

“The public may recall that in 2020, the commission issued the Order on Capping of Estimated Bills (Order No: NERC/197/2020) and subsequently issued monthly energy caps, which aimed to align the estimated bills for unmetered customers with the measured consumption of metered customers on the same supply feeder. A review of DisCos’ billing of unmetered customers for July – September 2024 (2024/Q3) revealed non-compliance with the monthly energy caps issued by the Commission.”

 

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