In a defiant display of political insensitivity, President Bola Tinubu, during his first presidential media chat on Monday, reaffirmed his decision to keep his bloated 48-member cabinet intact, rejected concerns over mounting public debt, and defended controversial policies such as the removal of the fuel subsidy and tax reforms. However, his words failed to reassure a growing chorus of critics who argue that his administration’s choices are exacerbating Nigeria’s economic woes and deepening public hardship.

Tinubu’s insistence on maintaining an oversized cabinet comes at a time when many Nigerians are calling for a reduction in the cost of governance. The president, who had already appointed the largest cabinet since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, declared that each of his ministers was “crucial” to the country’s progress. Despite mounting pressure for downsizing and cost-cutting, especially amid the ongoing economic struggles, Tinubu dismissed such calls. “I’m not prepared to bring down the size of my cabinet. I saw the need before I put them together,” he said, highlighting the scale of Nigeria’s challenges and emphasizing “efficiency” and “effectiveness” as key criteria for his appointments.

While efficiency is a noble goal, critics argue that the sheer size of the cabinet suggests inefficiency and redundancy. With 48 ministers—many of whom have faced scrutiny for their lack of visible impact—it’s hard to argue that the administration is optimizing resources. In fact, the appointment of ministers with scant public accountability or demonstrable results raises serious questions about the effectiveness of this government structure.

Meanwhile, Tinubu’s defense of the government’s aggressive borrowing strategy is equally troubling. Despite the National Assembly’s approval of a massive $2.2 billion loan to finance the 2024 budget, the president stressed that borrowing “is not criminal” and argued that it was necessary to address Nigeria’s vast infrastructure deficit. While the country indeed faces significant infrastructure challenges, the growing public debt and the continued reliance on loans to fund recurrent expenditures paint a grim picture of economic mismanagement. With debt servicing already consuming a disproportionate chunk of Nigeria’s revenue, many fear that these loans may only deepen the fiscal crisis in the years to come.

Tinubu’s most controversial policy remains the abrupt removal of the fuel subsidy in May 2023, which triggered an unprecedented spike in fuel prices and subsequent inflation. The president staunchly defended his decision, claiming that it was vital to secure the nation’s future, even as Nigerians continue to suffer from soaring transportation and food costs. He rejected any suggestion of a phased subsidy removal, dismissing it as a misguided “fortune of our future generations” and insisting that the move was necessary to curb wasteful government spending.

However, his rhetoric has done little to ease the pain felt by millions of Nigerians struggling with daily hardships. The astronomical price hikes have ignited public fury, especially as many blame the removal for plunging them into further poverty. Despite this, Tinubu remained unapologetic: “I don’t have any regret whatsoever removing the subsidy,” he declared, showing little sensitivity to the widespread anger.

In tandem with his economic policies, Tinubu is also pushing through ambitious tax reforms, which have sparked backlash from various quarters. The president’s plan to widen the tax net and impose higher taxes on citizens, particularly the middle class, has met with resistance, with critics accusing the administration of burdening Nigerians already grappling with high inflation and unemployment. Despite the objections, Tinubu remains adamant that tax reforms are necessary to fund the country’s development. “The tax reform is here to stay,” he asserted, dismissing calls for wider consultations as futile.

Tinubu’s approach to food security and price control, too, has left much to be desired.

On inflation, Tinubu believes that supply and demand will eventually bring prices down, but for many, the continued rise in the cost of living suggests otherwise. Critics argue that his administration’s failure to address the root causes of food insecurity, such as inadequate infrastructure and poor policy planning, is contributing to widespread suffering.

Even in his handling of the minimum wage, Tinubu’s claims of tackling corruption through wage increases ring hollow for many. While the increase from N30,000 to N70,000 is seen as a positive step, it does little to address the systemic issues that perpetuate corruption, such as lack of transparency and accountability within government institutions. Furthermore, the increase is insufficient to offset the relentless inflationary pressures on ordinary Nigerians, leaving them still struggling to make ends meet.

Overall, Tinubu’s administration appears to be doubling down on its most controversial policies, even as the country’s economic indicators worsen. From an inflated cabinet to reckless borrowing and harsh economic reforms, his leadership is characterized by a troubling disconnect from the realities faced by millions of Nigerians. With public dissatisfaction mounting, it remains to be seen whether Tinubu can convince the nation that his vision will lead to a brighter future, or if his presidency will become a cautionary tale of missed opportunities and mismanagement.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) have issued a joint directive requiring banks and telecom operators to settle their N250 billion dispute over USSD banking services.

In a December 20, 2024 circular signed by CBN's Acting Director of Payments System Management, Oladimeji Taiwo, and NCC's Head of Legal Services, Chizua Whyte, the regulators outlined a detailed settlement plan.

Under the new directive, banks must pay telecom operators 60% of all debts incurred before the implementation of API systems. These payments must be arranged by January 2, 2025, with full settlement required by July 2, 2025 if paying in installments.

For debts accumulated after February 2022, when APIs were introduced, banks must pay 85% of outstanding invoices by December 31, 2024. Going forward, 85% of new invoices must be paid within one month of issuance.

The regulators introduced additional measures to prevent future disputes:

- A "10-second rule" that prevents charging for USSD sessions under 10 seconds

- Transition to end-user billing for compliant banks and telecom operators

- Required public awareness campaigns about the changes

- Mandatory discontinuation of all related legal proceedings

The CBN and NCC emphasized that non-compliance will result in sanctions, demonstrating their commitment to resolving this long-standing industry dispute.

This joint directive aims to end years of disagreement between banks and telecom companies over USSD payment charges, which has threatened the stability of Nigeria's digital banking infrastructure.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Israeli defense minister claims responsibility for first time for Hamas leader Haniyeh's assassination

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz admitted on Monday for the first time publicly to Israel's killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran in July, further risking tensions between Tehran and its arch-enemy Israel in a region shaken by Israel's war in Gaza and the conflict in Lebanon.

"These days, when the Houthi terrorist organization is firing missiles at Israel, I want to convey a clear message to them at the beginning of my remarks: We have defeated Hamas, we have defeated Hezbollah, we have blinded Iran's defense systems and damaged the production systems, we have toppled the Assad regime in Syria, we have dealt a severe blow to the axis of evil, and we will also deal a severe blow to the Houthi terrorist organization in Yemen, which remains the last to stand," Katz said.

Israel will "damage their strategic infrastructure, and we will behead their leaders – just as we did to Haniyeh, Sinwar and Nasrallah in Tehran, Gaza and Lebanon – we will do it in Hodeidah and Sana'a," Katz said during an evening honoring defense ministry personnel.

The Iran-backed group in Yemen has been attacking commercial shipping in the Red Sea for more than a year to try to enforce a naval blockade on Israel, saying they are acting in solidarity with Palestinians in Israel's year-long war in Gaza.

In late July, the political leader of the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas was killed in Tehran in an assassination blamed on Israel by Iranian authorities. There was no direct claim of responsibility by Israel for the killing of Haniyeh at the time.

Haniyeh, normally based in Qatar, had been the face of Hamas' international diplomacy as the war set off by the Hamas-led attack on Israel on Oct. 7 has raged in Gaza. He had been taking part in internationally brokered indirect talks on reaching a ceasefire in the Palestinian enclave.

Months after, Israeli forces in Gaza killed Yahya Sinwar, Haniyeh's successor and the mastermind of the Oct. 7, 2023, attack that triggered the latest bloodshed in the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Reuters

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

NATO boss criticizes Zelensky – media

Vladimir Zelensky’s harsh criticism of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was unjustified, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has said, as quoted by Western media outlets. He has reportedly asked the Ukrainian leader to cease his criticism of Scholz.

Last month, Zelensky blasted the German chancellor for having a phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, complaining that the call undermined efforts to isolate Moscow diplomatically.

“I have often told Zelensky that he should stop criticizing Olaf Scholz, because I think it is unfair,” Rutte told dpa on Monday.

Zelensky had previously slammed Scholz for refusing to provide Kiev with German-made Taurus cruise missiles, suggesting that the chancellor would like to keep the weapons for Berlin’s own use in the event of a threat from Russia. Scholz explained the decision by saying he did not wish to escalate the Ukraine conflict and draw Germany into a direct confrontation with Russia.

Rutte reportedly added that he, unlike Scholz, would supply Ukraine with Taurus cruise missiles, and would not put any limits on the use of the weapons.

“In general, we know that such capabilities are very important for Ukraine,” Rutte said, emphasizing that it was not up to him to decide what weapons allies should deliver.

Moscow has consistently stated that Western aid cannot prevent Russian military forces from accomplishing the objectives of the military operation, nor alter the final outcome of the conflict. The Kremlin has argued that, by supporting Kiev, the Western allies are only prolonging the conflict.

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Italy to prolong war supplies to Ukraine until the end of 2025

Italy's cabinet on Monday passed a law decree that allows it to continue supplying until the end of 2025 "means, materials and equipment" to Ukraine to support its war effort against Russia, a government statement said.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Italy has approved 10 packages of military aid for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's government, including two Franco-Italian air defence systems known as SAMP/T.

Meloni has been a supporter of Kyiv since taking office in late 2022 and has vowed to back Ukraine until the war ends, amid uncertainty over the future attitude of the United States once president-elect Donald Trump takes office in January.

On Tuesday, NATO chief Mark Rutte urged members of the military alliance to step up military aid for Ukraine to strengthen its position should Kyiv enter into peace negotiations with Russia.

Under Italy's presidency this year, the Group of Seven (G7) major democracies have repeatedly pledged support for Ukraine, condemned Russia's war of aggression and pledged a $50 billion loan for Kyiv backed by frozen Russian assets.

RT/Reuters

“But she spoke the truth.” That is the most common retort among the diehard fans and devotees of Mrs Kemi Badenoch — leader of the UK Conservative Party — who has been obsessed with saying nasty things about Nigeria since she made her way into the front row of British politics and started glowing under the klieg lights. She has said so many “truths” at a dizzying speed that I am slightly confused over what she intends to achieve. She said she left Nigeria in 1996 after “leftist policies” impoverished the middle class and caused “hyperinflation”.  She said Yoruba “have nothing in common with northern Nigeria”. She said lizards, rather than water, flow from Nigerian taps.

I intend to, hereunder, challenge some of her egregious claims. To be clear, she has every right to say anything with her mouth. If she experienced trauma in Nigeria, she is free to tell the whole world. Nobody has the right to silence her. But there is one right she doesn’t have: to tell lies, misrepresent the facts or fan ethnic hate in a delicately poised country like Nigeria. Nigerians have every right to tackle her mischief. Her defenders say those who disagree with her utterances are only defending bad governance in the land. Thankfully, Mrs Badenoch did not invent criticism of bad governance in Nigeria. Nigerians do that every day in the media and on the streets. I do it regularly on this page.

Of all the awful things she said, the most disturbing is her promotion of ethnic bigotry. This woman is dangerous. Listen to her: “I find it interesting that everybody defines me as being Nigerian. I identify less with the country than with the specific ethnicity [Yoruba]. That’s what I really am. I have nothing in common with the people from the north of the country, the Boko Haram where the Islamism is. Those were our ethnic enemies and yet you end up being lumped in with those people.” This really excited her Nigerian fan base. Her father, the late Prof Olufemi Adegoke, a Yoruba nationalist, held similar views and even campaigned for the utopian “confederalism” which no country practises.

“But she spoke the truth.” But what manner of “truth” is her claim that Yoruba and northern Nigeria “had nothing in common”? Yoruba started interacting with northerners through commerce as far back as the 1500s. Fact. For centuries, they traded in cattle, kola nuts, horses, yams, cowries, firearms and glass beads. According to historians, the ethnonym ‘Yoruba’ — which Mrs Badenoch says defines her — was coined by northerners. I know some people are trying to re-write this fact but they have to travel back in time to erase history. They can argue that Yoruba and northerners should never have been in the same country, but they are not allowed to cannibalise the facts of history.

I have a sense that Mrs Badenoch is only repeating what she was told at home or what she read on social media. I will encourage her to go beyond hearsay and read good books. I recommend ‘A History of the Yoruba People’, authored by Prof Adebanji Akintoye, a supporter of Sunday Igboho, the Yoruba Nation separatist. Her father once described Igboho as “brave” for his secessionist rhetoric. She can also read ‘The Yoruba: A New History’, authored by Dr Akinwumi Ogundiran, a history professor at the Northwestern University, the US. Mrs Badenoch will be sad to discover the history of Yoruba intercourse with northerners and how this influenced culture and the Yoruba language.

It is obvious that Mrs Badenoch does not even know that the ethnonym ‘Yoruba’ did not refer to her own ancestors before colonial rule. ‘Yoruba’ was the identity of the Oyo-speaking people in today’s Oyo state and parts of Osun and Kwara states. Not all the people who call themselves ‘Yoruba’ today were called ‘Yoruba’ before colonial rule. The example I always cite — because it is easily on record — is Nigeria’s first newspaper which was established in 1859. It was named ‘Iwe Irohin fun Awon Egba ati Yoruba’ (‘Newspaper for Egba and Yoruba’). As of 1859, Egba people were not identified as Yoruba. Today’s pan-Yoruba identity, like most ethnic identities around the world, evolved with time.

Lest I forget, Mrs Badenoch said northerners “were our ethnic enemies”. My recommended reading for her in this regard would be ‘War and Peace in Yorubaland 1793-1893’, written by the late Prof Adeagbo Akinjogbin. She will be shocked to read about the intra-Yoruba wars: the Owo War (1820-1827), the Ijaye War (1860-1865) and the Kiriji War (1877-1893). Indeed, we can argue that the advent of colonialism and the “Lord Lugard lumping” of 1914 helped bring peace to what later became known as Yorubaland. Mrs Badenoch obviously thinks there was a lovey-dovey Republic of Oduduwa before the colonial masters came and “lumped in” her people with Boko Haram. Fantasy.

“But she spoke the truth.” She classified a region of 19 states as “Boko Haram”. She does not know that the north has nearly 200 ethnic groups (and millions of non-terrorists). In Borno state, the heartland of Boko Haram, most of the terror victims are Muslims. Fact. In this age and with all her education, exposure and experience in a multi-racial and multi-cultural society like the UK, I wonder how she plans to preside over a country where the Scottish, Welsh, Irish, and English people are “lumped in” — to say nothing about the millions from ethnic and religious minorities. She acquired British citizenship by birth; maybe she needs a crash course on the complex history of the UK.

Born to Nigerian parents in a British hospital in 1980, she was named “Oluwakemi” (incidentally, one of my younger sisters answers that lovely name, which, roughly translated, means “the Lord pampers me” or “the Lord blesses me”). Baby Oluwakemi was thereafter brought to Lagos, Nigeria, where she lived the first sixteen years of her life and received her basic education. A couple of years after her birth, the Nigerian economy ran into a serious storm amid a global recession. Dwindling oil revenues and the inevitable forex crunch forced many Nigerian factories to close down or retrench workers. The Shehu Shagari administration rolled out a mini reform package nicknamed “austerity measures”.

As prices of goods and services soared and economic pains intensified, the military overthrew Shagari on December 31, 1983. Major Gen Muhammadu Buhari became the head of state. The economy still did not improve much, even though oil prices recovered — and Buhari was overthrown by Gen Ibrahim Babangida on August 27, 1985. Babangida went on to implement the structural adjustment programme (SAP) — a reform package backed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank. The objectives were to transit to market economy through privatisation, grow agriculture, promote local industry, ramp up exports and cut subsidies to reduce government debts.

“But she spoke the truth.” What truth? When Mrs Badenoch left Nigeria in 1996, Nigeria was neck-deep in its market transition. The second-tier foreign exchange market (SFEM) was introduced in 1986 to liberalise the forex market. The naira crashed from roughly N1/$ in 1986 to N22/$ in 1996 (N88/$ in the parallel market). With an economy tied to imports, inflation was inevitable. Was SAP a leftist policy? Is forex liberalisation a leftist policy? Is privatisation leftist? Are IMF and World Bank leftist institutions? What truth, exactly? Meanwhile, when she relocated, Nigeria was still reeling from the June 12 annulment crisis which had paralysed the country politically and economically.

Her brother’s experience with the Nigerian police (“they stole his shoes and wristwatch”) is something Nigerians can relate with. After all, our youths held the #EndSARS protests against police atrocities in 2020. Definitely, the British police, which she praised, are better trained, better resourced and far more professional than ours. No argument. But in the year up to March 31, 2024, nearly 600 police officers were sacked in England and Wales for sexual offences, possession of child exploitation material, dishonesty and discriminatory behaviour. There is the famous case of David Carrick, a police officer who raped 48 women while on duty. Yes, she spoke the truth. Selective truth.

She talks exactly like those clout-chasers who think belittling Nigeria abroad is a ticket to glory. Responding to Vice-President Kashim Shettima’s caution over her unprovoked attacks, her aide said it is not her job to do PR for Nigeria. Fair enough. Her job is to urinate on Nigeria everywhere she goes. But think about it. President Barack Obama’s father was from Kenya. Rishi Sunak, ex-UK prime minister, has Indian roots. Humza Yousaf, ex-Scotland first minister, and Sadiq Khan, mayor of London, have Pakistani origin. Despite similar “truths” about their ancestral countries, they never open their mouths, like our dear Mrs Badenoch, to savage their roots. Emotional intelligence.

Now, my final words to Mrs Badenoch: grow up. You have already made history as the first black to lead the Tories. That is monumental. Work hard to become the next prime minister. Make history again. That is all you care about. But by outing yourself as an ethnic bigot, you are hurting yourself, not Nigeria. Denigrating us will not win your party more parliamentary seats. You behave like someone with a complex — like those slaves who felt privileged to supervise fellow slaves and often treated them with more disdain than the slave masters themselves. By the way, Mrs Badenoch, there is a Yoruba noun for those who point to their family house with the left hand. Go and find out.

First, a couple stories. One: A good friend of mine owns a handful of Ferraris, and has more on the way. Some he “just” purchased. Others he designed: not just the standard “build your own car” by choosing from a standard set of exterior colors and interior designs, but custom colors, paint schemes, interiors, and other elements. In short, at least two of his Ferraris are basically one-of-ones.

Whenever I run across a Ferrari, I send him a picture, and he always responds enthusiastically with the model, year, and a couple of fun facts.

One time I sent him a photo and he responded with “2004-something-something-something.” (I don’t remember what it was. My knowledge of Ferraris begins and ends with the prancing horse logo.) “You could probably get one for around $80 grand.”

Passion and identity

Since the Ferraris I usually stumble upon seem to be in the $500,000 range, I tried to be funny and wrote back, “Ah. Poser.”

“No,” he instantly responded. “The value of the car is irrelevant. Least expensive or most expensive, doesn’t matter. Own a Ferrari, you’re a Ferrari owner.”

Two: During a reception after a speaking gig, a man said to me, “I really want to be an entrepreneur, but I know it will take years before I can start my own business.“

I immediately thought about what my Ferrari friend had said. “You don’t have to wait,” I said. “Sign up with Uber, get paid for your first passenger, and you’re an entrepreneur.”

The same is with teaching a music lesson, or taking a programming gig on Fiverr, or anything: All you have to do is start, and you’re an entrepreneur. Everything else is just a matter of degree.

Embrace your entrepreneurial spirit

To quote the Stoic philosopher Seneca, who was quoting Epicurus, “The fool, with all his other faults, has this also: He is always getting ready to live.” The same is true for whatever you want to be. If you’re waiting to start, you’re just pretending. You want to be, yet you are not.

But the moment you start, however small, tentatively, however humbly? You are what you want to be. As long as you keep trying and don’t quit, the rest is just a matter of degree.

That’s true for any pursuit. You don’t have to run a marathon to be considered a runner. The first time you go for a jog, you’re a runner. Even if you “only” run a mile two or three times a week, you’re a runner. You don’t have to be Taylor Swift (speaking of one-of-ones) to be a musician; as long as you regularly play — no matter how poorly you, or others, think you play — you’re a musician.

You’re already on your way

Work for yourself, not someone else, and even if only occasionally, and for relatively small sums of money… you’re an entrepreneur.

Waiting to start doing something you want to do, that you want to become, is a form of conditional thinking: “First (this) has to happen; then I will finally be able to do (that).”

But waiting won’t make you the person you want to be. Preparation and planning are nice, but the moment you start is the moment you have become.

The rest is just a matter of degree.

And once you’ve started, the more time and effort you put into what you have become, the more likely you’ll reach the degree of success in that pursuit that you hope to achieve.

But first you have to start.

Inc

The Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) posted strong gains last week, with investors adding more than N1.062 trillion to their portfolios. The All Share Index (ASI) rose to 101,129.09 points from 99,378.06 points, marking its highest weekly gain since March 2024.

The market's year-to-date return of 35.2% has outpaced Nigeria's November inflation rate of 34.6%. This performance was driven largely by rallies in blue-chip stocks, with ARADEL leading the gains at 20.73%, followed by GTCO at 7.65% and Zenith Bank at 4.20%. However, some major stocks declined, including BUA Cement (-2.11%), MTN Nigeria (-0.28%), and ACCESSCORP (-0.62%).

The total market value increased to N61.303 trillion from N60.241 trillion the previous week. Analysts attribute this bullish trend to strong buying interest across major sectors, particularly in consumer goods companies like Honeywell Flour Mills, Nigeria Breweries, and Nestle. They also note that investors are taking year-end positions ahead of the Christmas holiday, with an increasing number of companies reaching new 52-week highs.

The market's upward momentum has been supported by robust money flows and cross-deal transactions as the year draws to a close.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) reports that Credit to the Private Sector (CPS) decreased by approximately 3% in October 2024, falling from N75.83 trillion to N73.95 trillion. This decline represents a reduction of N1.8 trillion in financial resources provided to private businesses through loans, securities purchases, and trade credits.

Despite the monthly decline, the October 2024 figure remains 15% higher than the N63.5 trillion recorded in October 2023, indicating overall growth in private sector financing year-over-year. The credit volume has fluctuated between N73-74 trillion throughout the third quarter of 2024.

The year began strongly with private sector credit reaching N76.4 trillion in January, climbing to N80.8 trillion in February. However, March saw a sharp decline to N71.2 trillion, followed by fluctuations through subsequent months. By October, the figure had settled at N73.94 trillion.

Analysts attribute the recent decline to the CBN's tighter monetary policy, particularly the increased Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) of 27.5%, implemented to combat inflation. Despite these challenges, experts have praised the resilience of Nigeria's financial system and banking sector throughout 2024.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Israel's Netanyahu eyes Iran after triumphs over Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria

2025 will be a year of reckoning for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his country's arch foe Iran.

The veteran Israeli leader is set to cement his strategic goals: tightening his military control over Gaza, thwarting Iran's nuclear ambitions and capitalising on the dismantling of Tehran's allies -- Palestinian Hamas, Lebanon's Hezbollah and the removal of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad.

Assad's collapse, the elimination of the top leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah and the destruction of their military structure mark a succession of monumental wins for Netanyahu.

Without Syria, the alliances Tehran has nurtured for decades have unraveled. As Iran's influence weakens, Israel is emerging as the dominant power in the region.

Netanyahu is poised to zero in on Iran's nuclear ambitions and missile program, applying an unyielding focus to dismantling and neutralising these strategic threats to Israel.

Iran, Middle East observers say, faces a stark choice: Either continue its nuclear enrichment program or scale back its atomic activities and agree to negotiations.

"Iran is very vulnerable to an Israeli attack, particularly against its nuclear program," said Joost R. Hiltermann, Middle East and North Africa Program Director of the International Crisis Group. "I wouldn't be surprised if Israel did it, but that doesn't get rid of Iran."

"If they (Iranians) do not back down, Trump and Netanyahu might strike, as nothing now prevents them," said Palestinian analyst Ghassan al-Khatib, referring to President-elect Donald Trump. Khatib argued that the Iranian leadership, having demonstrated pragmatism in the past, may be willing to compromise to avert a military confrontation.

Trump, who withdrew from a 2015 agreement between Iran and six world powers aimed at curbing Tehran's nuclear goals, is likely to step up sanctions on Iran's oil industry, despite calls to return to negotiations from critics who see diplomacy as a more effective long-term policy.

DEFINING LEGACY

Amid the turmoil of Iran and Gaza, Netanyahu's long-running corruption trial, which resumed in December, will also play a defining role in shaping his legacy. For the first time since the outbreak of the Gaza war in 2023, Netanyahu took the stand in proceedings that have bitterly divided Israelis.

With 2024 coming to an end, the Israeli prime minister will likely agree to sign a ceasefire accord with Hamas to halt the 14-month-old Gaza war and free Israeli hostages held in the enclave, according to sources close to the negotiations.

But Gaza would stay under Israeli military control in the absence of a post-war U.S. plan for Israel to cede power to the Palestinian Authority (PA), which Netanyahu rejects. Arab states have shown little inclination to press Israel to compromise or push the decaying PA to overhaul its leadership to take over.

"Israel will remain in Gaza militarily in the foreseeable future because any withdrawal carries the risk of Hamas reorganising. Israel believes that the only way to maintain the military gains is to stay in Gaza," Khatib told Reuters.

For Netanyahu, such a result would mark a strategic victory, consolidating a status quo that aligns with his vision: Preventing Palestinian statehood while ensuring Israel's long-term control over Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem -- territories internationally recognised as integral to a future Palestinian state.

The Gaza war erupted when Hamas militants stormed into Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies. Israel responded with an air and land offensive that has killed 45,000 people, health authorities there say, displaced 1.2 million and left much of the enclave in ruins.

While the ceasefire pact would bring an immediate end to the Gaza hostilities, it would not address the deeper, decades-old Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Arab and Western officials say.

On the ground, prospects for a Palestinian state, an option repeatedly ruled out by Netanyahu's government, have become increasingly unattainable, with Israeli settler leaders optimistic that Trump will align closely with their views.

A surge in settler violence and the increasing confidence of the settler movement - highway billboards in some West Bank areas bear the message in Arabic "No Future in Palestine" - reflect a growing squeeze on Palestinians.

Even if the Trump administration were to push for an end to the conflict, "any resolution would be on Israel’s terms," said Hiltermann of the Crisis Group.

"It's over when it comes to a Palestinian state, but the Palestinians are still there," he said.

In Trump's previous term, Netanyahu secured several diplomatic wins, including the “Deal of the Century,” a U.S.-backed peace plan which Trump floated in 2020 to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The plan, if implemented, marks a dramatic shift in U.S. policy and international agreements by overtly aligning with Israel and deviating sharply from a long-standing land-for-peace framework that has historically guided negotiations.

It would allow Israel to annex vast stretches of land in the occupied West Bank, including Israeli settlements and the Jordan Valley. It would also recognise Jerusalem as the "undivided capital of Israel" - effectively denying Palestinian claims to East Jerusalem as their capital, a central aspiration in their statehood goals and in accordance with U.N. resolutions.

SYRIA AT CRITICAL CROSSROADS

Across the border from Israel, Syria stands at a critical juncture following the overthrow of Assad by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebel forces, led by Ahmad al-Sharaa, better known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani.

Golani now faces the monumental task of consolidating control over a fractured Syria, where the military and police force have collapsed. HTS has to rebuild from scratch, securing borders and maintaining internal stability against threats from jihadists, remnants of the Assad regime, and other adversaries.

The greatest fear among Syrians and observers alike is whether HTS, once linked to al-Qaeda but now presenting itself as a Syrian nationalist force to gain legitimacy, reverts to a rigid Islamist ideology.

The group’s ability - or failure - to navigate this balance will shape the future of Syria, home to diverse communities of Sunnis, Shi'ites, Alawites, Kurds, Druze and Christians.

"If they succeed in that (Syrian nationalism) there's hope for Syria, but if they revert to their comfort zone of quite strongly ideologically-tainted Islamism, then it's going to be divisive in Syria," said Hiltermann.

"You could have chaos and a weak Syria for a long time, just like we saw in Libya and Iraq."

Reuters