It was anguish, yesterday, as the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, NNPCL, raised the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), also known as petrol, by 15 per cent across the country.

The development confirmed earlier reports that plans were underway to fully deregulate the sector and that subsidy would no longer apply from this week.

However, the complete deregulation effect, yesterday, pushed the price of the product to N1,030 per litre, from N897 per litre in Abuja, while the price rose to N998 per litre, from N855 per litre in Lagos.

Checks by our correspondent indicated that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery price also increased by 8.8 per cent to N977 per litre, from N898 per litre, yesterday.

The latest price increase makes it the second time the petrol price has been hiked in the past month.
This showed that the pump price of petrol has risen by more than 411 per cent since President Bola Tinubu came into office in May 2023.

Specifically, from N195 per litre before the President assumed office on May 29th, 2023, the price of the product was increased to N448 (Lagos) and N460 (Abuja) in May 31, 2024; N557 (Lagos) and N617 (Abuja) in September 2024; N610 (Lagos) and N897 (Abuja) in September 2024 before the latest increase to N998 (Lagos) and N1,030 (Abuja) in October 2024.

The latest increase, which came against expectations that the crude-for-Naira deal between the Federal Government and Dangote Refinery might lead to a reduction in the pump price beginning from October 1, 2024 has left many citizens, especially motorists, in anger.

Checks by our correspondents around Abuja yesterday showed that other marketers have also adjusted their pump price upward, with major marketers selling at N1,040 per litre from N926 sold previously. Independent marketers also raised their price to N1,150 per litre.

When our correspondent visited the NNPC Retail mega station in Abuja where the price increase had been effected, shocked motorists lamented the continuing hardship in the country.

“It’s beyond belief. I have been in the queue for almost an hour and I didn’t know they had increased the price. Tinubu is not concerned about our suffering”, a taxi driver, Usman Abah, lamented.

He condemned the lack of information by NNPCL before the price increase was implemented, adding “they are taking us for granted. At the time I joined the queue, I assumed the price was still N897 per litre. I am in shock and confused.”

At a Conoil outlet, opposite the NNPC Towers in the Central Area, Abuja, consumers watched in horror as the pump price was changed in their presence from N926 per litre to N1,040 per litre.
Close by, at the TotalEnergies outlet, the station continued selling at the old price of N926 per litre.

We’re seeing complete deregulation — marketers

Reacting, the Managing Director, 11 Plc (formerly Mobil Oil Nigeria Plc), Adetunji Oyebanji, said: “I believe the price of PMS has finally been deregulated, and subsidy has finally been eliminated.

‘’Henceforth, the price of PMS will be determined by market dynamics. This is inevitable as the government could no longer bear the burden of the subsidy.

“A good measure the government has taken to mitigate the development is the sale of crude oil to local refineries in Naira at a fixed exchange rate. This will protect consumers from the negative impact of the fluctuations in exchange rates.

‘’The fact that the crude will be refined in local refineries will also save the cost of transporting crude to offshore refineries and transporting refined products back to Nigeria.

“Without these two factors, prices would have been higher. Another thing will be that the incentive to smuggle petrol from Nigeria to our neighbouring countries will be greatly reduced. Henceforth, prices can change at any time, depending on market dynamics.

“Customers will make informed choices about where to buy. Operators will need to improve on safety, customer service, and accurate measurement to retain customers. This is also the time for consumers to consider alternative sources of powering their vehicles like CNG.

“The era of full competition has come to Nigeria. With time, things will settle down, and people will make informed choices. The government should invest in mass transportation, especially with CNG buses.
“Greater incentives should be given in terms of duty waivers on conversion kits and other CNG equipment and vehicles.”

However, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, IPMAN, has lamented that it costs over N50 million to load a truck of petrol.

According to the Public Relations Officer, IPMAN, Chinedu Ukadike, several independent marketers have shut down operations due to the high cost of capital required to run the business.
Ukadike, however, pointed out that the full deregulation of petrol prices and withdrawal of NNPC Limited as the sole off-taker of petrol from Dangote Refinery will open opportunities for competition among marketers.

“We are ready to compete. We have our tank farm now in Calabar and we’re ready to compete and face the challenges that come from operating in a deregulated sector. We also have plans to acquire more tank farms in other parts of the country”, he declared.

It’s an aberration — NLC

Reacting to the fresh price hike yesterday, the Nigeria Labour Congress, NLC, demanded for immediate reversal, saying NNPC fixing fuel prices in a so-called deregulated sector was an aberration.

NLC asked the Federal Government, led by Tinubu, to immediately reverse the latest hike in petrol prices, arguing that previous increases did not produce any positive results, but only made people poorer.

In a statement by its President, Joe Ajaero, the NLC contended that following the logic of market forces, it was an aberration that a private company, NNPCL, was the one fixing prices and projecting itself as a hegemonic monopoly.

The statement, titled “What next after increase in pump price?” read: “We are dismayed by the latest increase in the pump price of petrol. It looks like the only thing this government is known for is the increase in the pump price of petrol without commensurate capacity of Nigerians or mitigatory measures.

“Even following the logic of market forces, we find it an aberration that a private company, NNPCL, is the one fixing prices and projecting itself as a hegemonic monopoly. We challenge the government to go to the drawing board and present us with a blueprint for inclusive economic growth and national development, instead of this spasmodic ad-hocism and palliative policy.

“It needs no stating the fact that the latest wave of increase has grossly altered the calculations of Nigerians once again at a time they were reluctantly coming to terms with their new realities. It will further deepen poverty as production capacities dip, and more jobs lost, with multi-dimensional negative effects.

“In light of this, we urge the government to immediately reverse this price hike as previous increases did not produce any good results. People only got poorer. But more fundamentally, the government should be bold enough to tell Nigerians in advance the destination it wants to take the country.”

Latest increase regrettably ill-timed — CPPE

On his part, the Chief Executive Officer, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, CPPE, Muda Yusuf, said: “The latest increase in petrol price is regrettably ill-timed and does not reckon with the prevailing difficult economic conditions.

‘’It is important to stress that social, economic and political considerations matter in policy choices. Commercial considerations should not completely override these considerations. There is always a place for political economy in the interest of the vulnerable segments of society.

“The Nigerian economy is not ripe for full-blown deregulation and market principles on all fronts. The social cost of such policy choices is typically very high. This is an economy with very weak social safety nets. Over one hundred million people are wallowing in various variants of poverty.

“There is also the issue of policy sequencing. The present administration has presented an Economic Stabilisation Bill to the national assembly. The bill is expected to bring some relief to citizens and businesses. It would have been better to allow the proposed mitigating measures to be activated and gain traction before coming up with the petrol price hike.

“What the economy needs at this time are measures to ease current economic and social challenges; not policies that would aggravate them.

“It is desirable at this time to urgently cut import duties and taxes by a minimum of 25% on all industrial raw materials, passenger buses of 18 seats and above and cars of 2000cc engine capacity and below.

‘’The customs duty exchange rate should be fixed at a maximum of N1,000/dollar to reduce the current prohibitive cost of imports. Relevant legislation should be amended to that effect. This is without prejudice to fiscal policy measures contained in the Economic Stabilisation Plan.

“The government must be ready to trade off some revenue in the current situation. There is a need to seek to achieve the maximisation of the welfare function for citizens and the productivity function for businesses. The government should not be too fixated on revenue maximisation.”

FG insensitive to the suffering of Nigerians— Udoma

In her own response, Charity Udoma, a rights activist, said: “Increment of pump price of PMS at this time is most unfortunate, senseless and proof that government is insensitive to the suffering of its citizens.

The government just wakes up and makes irrational decisions without wide expert consultations and consideration for the citizens.

“It will only lead to a higher inflation rate in the country which will further lead to increases in cost of transportation, price of foods and other commodities, which will also impact negatively on access to medicals, etc.

‘’It will lead to increase in crime rate and general insecurity, hunger, poverty, poor health increasing sicknesses and high mortality rate.

The insensitivity of the government to the sufferings of Nigerians at this time is most unfortunate and only tends to increase untold hardship on Nigerians which is most uncalled for right now. How can we be suffering amid abundance?”

Untold hardship for workers coming — NCMDLCA

Reacting to the development, Lucky Amiwero, National President, National Council of Managing Director of Licensed Customs Agents, NCMDLCA, said before the latest increase in the pump price of petrol, a lot of people working within and around the ports found it difficult to come to work.

Amiwero stated that with this new price of petrol, a lot more people would stop coming to work as Nigerians would face more hardship.

He explained that fuel is the critical factor that is killing the economy because of the way the government has handled the commodity.

He said: “It is that critical factor that has held the economy down, a lot of people cannot go to work when you go to Abuja now, you cannot move around because of the issue of fuel. In Lagos, it is the same thing.

“It is a high factor that is destroying the common man; a lot of people cannot go to work. If you go to the ports now, you find that the ports are virtually empty. Even when you have jobs to do in the ports, you find it difficult to leave your place and go to the port.

“You increase the fuel price, increased electricity tariff, floated the Naira, everything is increased. The cost of fuel is now at par with electricity.

“Nigeria cannot be exploring crude and producing fuel and you now politicize the fuel.”

Impact’ll be severe on businesses -—ASBON

President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria, ASBON, Femi Egbesola, said the impact of the hike would be severe on businesses, trigger price increases and reverse the recent easing in inflation.

His words: “While we understand the complex factors that can influence fuel prices, such as global oil market dynamics and exchange rate fluctuations, we are troubled by the lack of prior notice and clear explanations provided by the government and the NNPCL regarding this development.

“The timing of this price hike is particularly concerning; as it has the potential to further exacerbate the impact on businesses and consumers, especially the vulnerable segments of the population and those on fixed incomes, who are still adjusting to the recent increase in the national minimum wage.

“At this point, the current administration should realise that a steep price hike is bound to trigger widespread price increases, potentially reversing the recent easing in the Nigerian economy.

“The immediate impact of the hike in petrol price on businesses will be severe, with fuel prices affecting supply and logistics, power generation, transportation, and factory operations.

“The cost of doing business will skyrocket, prices of goods will rise, and some firms may shut down due to low demand in the face of weakening consumer purchasing power. Of course, this will be followed by job losses.”

It will further erode citizens’ purchasing power —NECA, analysts

Reacting, the Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association, NECA, said, among others, this new increase will further distort the cash flow potential of many, erode further the real value of the minimum wage and likely increase in general cost of living.

The Director-General of NECA, Adewale-Smatt Oyerinde, said: “The announced increase in the price of petrol, notwithstanding the justification has the potential to further erode the purchasing power of Nigerians while putting more pressure on both organized and unorganized businesses.

“There is no gainsaying that petrol remains the predominant source of energy for many sectors, including transportation and household uses. Thus, this new increase will further distort the cash flow potential of many, further erode the real value of the minimum wage and a likely increase in the general cost of living.”

Also reacting to the fuel price increase, Clifford Egbomeade, Economy Analyst and Communications Expert, said: “One immediate consequence of this price hike will be the increased cost of living. Transportation and logistics, which rely heavily on fuel, will see a surge in costs, driving up the prices of goods and services across the country. This will put additional financial pressure on Nigerians, particularly those already struggling with inflation and rising expenses. For many, the increased fuel cost means higher expenses in their daily lives, from commuting to food purchases, further stretching household budgets.

“Industries that depend on fuel, such as manufacturing, agriculture, and logistics, are also set to feel the impact. Higher operational costs may lead to reduced output, layoffs, or even business closures in extreme cases. For small and medium-sized enterprises and SMEs, this rise in fuel prices could be crippling, particularly in a country where the cost of doing business is already high due to other factors like inadequate power supply.

“Moreover, the broader economic impact cannot be ignored. As the price of essential goods rises due to increased transportation and production costs, inflation is expected to accelerate. This will worsen the economic challenges many Nigerians are already facing, deepening the disparity between income levels and living standards. While the move towards deregulation may foster market competition in the long term, in the short term, the country is likely to experience significant economic disruption.

The public’s response to the increase has already been marked by frustration and long queues at filling stations, signalling growing discontent. This could have political ramifications, as pressure mounts on the government to either provide immediate relief or risk facing protests and unrest. The situation reflects the delicate balance between pursuing economic reforms and managing the social consequences of those changes.”

In the same vein, Analysyt & Executive Vice Chairamn at Highcap Securities Limited, David Adonri said: “There was hearsay yesterday that the government was trying to reduce the price of fuel and to my greatest shock, today the opposite is happening. It is another recipe for a hike in the inflation rate.”

Nigerians being pushed to the wall—ASSBIFI

On his part, the President of the Association of Senior Staff of Banks, Insurance and Financial Institutions, ASSBIFI, Olusoji Oluwole, warned that Nigerians were very angry and being pushed to a boiling point by the increase.

He said: “The sudden increase in petrol pump price is shocking and highly insensitive. This is especially so when a government that has spent one year negotiating a poor minimum wage that has not been implemented is quick to continuously increase fuel prices multiple times.

“This action is capable of creating an avoidable crisis that can lead to anarchy if not well thought out. Nigerians are angry and are being pushed to a point that even organized pressure groups will be unable to stem any reactions.”

FUEL INCREASE 2023 — 2024
Lagos/Abuja
N195/N200 (Before Tinubu came in)
N448/N460 (May 31, 2024)
N557/N617 (September 2024)
N855/N897(September 2024)
N998/N1,030 (October 2024)

Vanguard

The Federal Government, under the leadership of President Bola Tinubu, has secured loans worth $6.45bn from the World Bank in just 16 months.

The amount increased to the new figure following the recent approval of three new loans totalling $1.57bn from the World Bank for various projects in Nigeria and is expected to increase further in the coming months.

This was as the international lender approved no fewer than 36 loan requests to the Federal Government, amounting to a substantial total of $24.088bn within five years.

These approvals, aimed at financing various development projects nationwide, arrive alongside increasing concerns about the country’s escalating debt profile, prompting questions about the sustainability of these financial commitments and their potential long-term effects on the economy.

Some of the projects under Tinubu include loans for power ($750 million), women empowerment ($500 million), girl’s education ($700 million), renewable energy ($750 million), economic stabilization reforms ($1.5 billion) and resource mobilization reforms ($750 million),

For many Nigerians, long years of infrastructure decay and increased unemployment have triggered an increased feeling of bitterness whenever they hear the government’s intention to borrow.

Although some of them realistically agree that resources are thin, considering an outsized population; however, they believe the past borrowings have not been justified.

However, according to an analysis of documents obtained from the international lender website on Tuesday, the international lender has maintained an annual credit approval to the nation since 2020.

A cursory look showed that the lender approved 15 loan requests worth $6.36bn in 2020. Some of these projects include the Nigeria Rural Access and Agricultural Marketing Project with an approved project commitment of $510m, The Nigeria Digital Identification for Development project ($430m), and $750m for the Nigeria SATAN additional financing for COVID-19 response, amongst others.

In 2021, the loan requests were reduced to six projects worth $3.2bn while the nation, under the administration of former president Mohammadu Buhari, secured loans worth $1.26bn in 2022 for six projects.

For instance, a $500m loan request was approved for a livestock productivity and resilience support project on March 18, 2022.  Another loan of $750m was approved under the Nigeria: State Action on Business Enabling Reforms Program in the same year.

Also, $3.9m was secured for the Umbrella organisation to support Nigeria for women’s projects.

However, in 2023, the loan request increased to $2.7bn to implement four projects, namely $750m for Nigeria- AF power sector recovery performance-based operation, $500m for Nigeria for Women Program Scale-up projects and $750m for the Nigeria Distributed Access through Renewable Energy scale-up project.

Similarly, the bank has approved $3.82bn already in 2024 for five projects, which include a grant of $70 million.

This means that the loan amount was $3.75bn so far in 2024, with more credit facilities expected before the end of the current year

The World Bank has approved a series of loans to Nigeria, strategically targeting critical sectors such as economic reforms, resource mobilization, adolescent girls’ education, and renewable energy expansion.

Recall that on June 13, the World Bank announced the approval of two loan projects aimed at bolstering Nigeria’s economic stability and supporting its vulnerable populations.

According to a statement from the bank, the combined package, totalling $2.25bn, comprises the $1.5bn Nigeria Reforms for Economic Stabilization to Enable Transformation Development Policy Financing Program and the $750m Nigeria Accelerating Resource Mobilization Reforms Program-for-Results.

Already, the international lender has received $751.88m of the $1.5bn under the Nigeria Reforms for Economic Stabilisation to Enable Transformation.

The World Bank is expected to approve another loan request worth $500m by December 16, 2024, for the Rural Access and Agricultural Marketing Project – Scale Up project.

According to a statement released last week announcing the latest approval, the international lender said the credit facilities will help the government strengthen human capital through better health for women, children and adolescents.

It added that the approved projects would also help build resilience to the effects of climate change, such as floods and drought, by improving dam safety and irrigation.

The statement read, “The World Bank has today approved three operations for a total of $1.57bn to support the Government of Nigeria in strengthening human capital through better health for women, children and adolescents and building resilience to the effects of climate change such as floods and droughts through improving dam safety and irrigation.”

The international lender stated that this new financing includes $500m for addressing governance issues that constrain the delivery of education and health, $570m for the Primary Healthcare Provision Strengthening Programme and $500m for the Sustainable Power and Irrigation for Nigeria Project.

“The HOPE-GOV and HOPE-PHC programmes combined will support the Government of Nigeria to improve service delivery in the basic education and primary healthcare sectors which are critical towards improving Nigeria’s human capital outcomes.

“The SPIN project will support the improvement of dams’ safety and management of water resources for hydropower and irrigation in selected areas of Nigeria.

“The HOPE-GOV Programme will support Nigeria to address underlying governance weaknesses in the systems and procedures of government in two key human development sectors,” it noted.

The approval, made on September 26, 2024, highlights the World Bank’s commitment to strengthening Nigeria’s human capital and building resilience in the face of climate threats.

Data from the external debt stock report of the Debt Management Office shows that Nigeria owes the World Bank a total of $15.59 billion as of March 31, 2024.

Nigeria’s debt servicing expenses reached N6.04tn in the first half of 2024, marking a sharp increase of 68.8 per cent from the N3.58tn recorded during the same period in 2023, the latest data from the Central Bank of Nigeria showed.

This sharp rise in debt service obligations, likely driven by naira devaluation for foreign debt repayments, reflects the growing burden on the government as debt repayment consumes a significant portion of its financial resources.

Punch

Biden, Netanyahu speak, Israel vows lethal retaliation against Iran

U.S. President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had a call on Wednesday amid tensions with Iran, while Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant promised an Israeli strike against Iran will be "lethal, precise and surprising."

The 30-minute call was the first known chat for Biden and Netanyahu since August and coincides with a sharp escalation of Israel's conflict with Iran and the Iran-backed Lebanese Hezbollah, but with no sign of an imminent ceasefire to end the conflict with Iran-backed Hamas in Gaza.

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The call was "direct and very productive," White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters, while acknowledging the two leaders have disagreements and are open about them.

The Middle East has been on edge awaiting Israel's response to a missile attack last week that Tehran carried out in retaliation for Israel's military escalation in Lebanon. The Iranian attack ultimately killed no one in Israel.

After describing Iran's Oct. 1 missile attack as a failure, Gallant said in a video issued by his office after the Biden-Netanyahu call had ended: "Whoever attacks us will be hurt and will pay a price. Our attack will be deadly, precise and above all surprising, they will not understand what happened and how it happened, they will see the results."

Netanyahu has promised that arch-foe Iran will pay for its missile attack, while Tehran has said any retaliation would be met with vast destruction, raising fears of a wider war in the oil-producing region which could draw in the United States.

The United States has said it supports Israel going after Iran-backed targets like Hezbollah and Hamas but has tried, unsuccessfully, to stem rising conflict, to broker a ceasefire in Gaza and to persuade Israel to curb rocket attacks on residential areas that have killed thousands of people.

Relations between Biden and Netanyahu have been tense, strained over the Israeli leader’s handling of the war in Gaza and the conflict with Hezbollah. Israel has said it will pursue its military operations until Israelis are safe.

In "War," a book out next week, journalist Bob Woodward reports that Biden regularly accused Netanyahu of having no strategy, and shouted "Bibi, what the fuck?" at him in July, after Israeli strikes near Beirut and in Iran.

Asked about the book, one U.S. official familiar with the two leaders' past interactions said Biden has used sharp, direct, unfiltered and colorful language both with and about Netanyahu while in office.

Wednesday's call was "a positive call, and we appreciate the support of the U.S.," Israel's U.N. Ambassador Danny Danon told reporters.

"And as we stated earlier, Israel will retaliate for the attack ... We will choose the locations. It will be painful for the Iranian regime," Danon said.

Gallant canceled a Wednesday visit to the Pentagon, the Pentagon said. Gallant said in a statement he had postponed the visit at Netanyahu's request until after the prime minister spoke with Biden.

Tensions have increased in recent weeks as U.S. officials were repeatedly blindsided by Israeli actions, according to a person familiar with the matter. These included Israel's killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and the detonation of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah members in Lebanon that Israel has neither confirmed nor denied carrying out.

Israel has also been slow to share details of its planning for retaliation against Iran's ballistic missile attack, the person said.

Biden said last Friday he would think about alternatives to striking Iranian oil fields if he were in Israel's shoes, adding he thought Israel had not concluded how to respond to Iran. Last week, he also said he would not support Israel striking Iranian nuclear sites.

ELECTION ISSUE

Biden has been hit by sharp criticism from international partners as well as members of his own Democratic Party over his inability to use leverage, including the U.S. role as Israel’s chief arms supplier, to curb Netanyahu's attacks.

By extension, Kamala Harris, Biden's vice president and the Democrats' presidential candidate in the Nov. 5 election, has been challenged to defend the administration's policy on the campaign trail. Harris joined the call with Biden and Netanyahu, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Some Arab American voters in Michigan are backing independent candidate Jill Stein, a move that could cost Harris the battleground state and perhaps the White House in a race with Republican former President Donald Trump that opinion polls show to be very tight.

Harris is trailing Trump in Michigan with 47% of voters to his 50%, new Quinnipiac University polling showed on Wednesday. In a Sept. 18 poll, Harris held 50% of the vote and Trump 45%.

Israel and Netanyahu in particular have faced widespread condemnationover the nearly 42,000 Palestinians killed in the Gaza war, according to the Palestinian health ministry in Hamas-ruled Gaza, and the deaths of over 2,000 people in Lebanon.

Israel says it is defending itself after Hamas militants attacked southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies, and from attacks by other militants including Hezbollah who support Hamas.

Reuters

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine is receiving chemical weapons from the West – Moscow

The collective West has been facilitating the supply of banned toxic chemicals to Kiev to be used as chemical weaponry on the frontlines, the Russian Embassy in the UK has said.

The mission made the remarks on Tuesday, responding to a new round of sanctions imposed by London. The restrictions target Russia’s Radiological Chemical and Biological Defense Forces (RChBZ) and its head, Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, with the British government accusing Moscow of “flagrant violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC).”

The mission strongly rejected the accusations, pointing out that Moscow destroyed its chemical arsenal years ago, with the process overseen by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW).

“Russia strictly adheres to the norms of international law, including the provisions of the Geneva Conventions and the Chemical Weapons Convention. There are no chemical weapons in the arsenals of our Armed Forces, which has been confirmed by international inspections,” the mission said.

In reality, London’s accusations were intended to divert attention from the numerous instances of use of chemical weapons by Kiev’s forces during the conflict against Moscow, the embassy suggested.

“By groundlessly accusing Russia, they are keeping silent confirmed facts of the use of prohibited toxic substances and chemical agents by the Kiev regime forces,” it stated, accusing the collective West of facilitating the supply of such toxins to Ukrainian troops.

The new British restrictions and the exchange of accusations come a day after General Kirillov accused Kiev of making extensive preparations for “false flag attacks aimed at accusing Russia of using toxic substances during the special military operation.” The ‘proof’ resulting from the false flag operations would then be provided to OPCW officials.

Kirillov said Moscow had registered some 400 cases in which Ukraine had used riot-control chemical agents. While used in policing, such agents qualify as chemical weapons in warfare and, therefore, are prohibited.

The general also accused Ukraine of deploying chemical weapons disguised as smoke bombs during its ongoing incursion into Russia’s Kursk Region. The munitions were used in the Russian town of Sudzha in August, with more than 20 people exposed to the toxins during the attack.

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukrainian drone strikes another arms depot inside Russia, officials say

A Ukrainian drone struck an important arms depot inside Russia, the Ukraine military said Wednesday, three weeks after another drone blasted a major Russian armory and three days after a drone smashed into a key oil terminal in Russia-occupied Crimea.

The Tuesday night strike targeted an arsenal in Russia’s Bryansk border region where missiles and artillery munitions were stored, including some that had been delivered by North Korea, a Ukrainian General Staff statement said.

Hugely powerful glide bombs that have terrorized civilian areas of Ukraine and bludgeoned Ukrainian army defenses were also kept at the arsenal, located 115 kilometers (70 miles) from the Ukrainian border, and some of the ammunition was stored in the open, it said.

“Striking such arsenals creates serious logistical problems for the Russian army, thus significantly reducing (its) offensive capabilities,” the statement said.

Russia is expending enormous amounts of ammunition as it makes its advantage in artillery shells felt on the battlefield in a war of attrition that is approaching its 1,000-day milestone next month.

Its slow but relentless drive deeper into Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region is stretching Ukraine’s resources just as some of Kyiv’s key Western partners are being distracted by domestic concerns and Middle East wars.

Ukraine is building up its own arms industry, and authorities have identified drones as an important aspect of that.

“Among the key areas identified are drones for our army, and this should be a supply that not only constantly increases in volume, but also evolves and develops in line with the demands of war,” Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a video address late Tuesday about weapons production.

The Russian military has also improved its drones’ capabilities and expanded their use.

Russian drones targeted Ukraine’s southern Odesa region for the third night in a row on Tuesday, injuring five people, regional Gov. Oleh Kiper said.

However, Ukraine’s air defenses have proved resilient against drones. The Ukrainian air force said Wednesday it shot down 21 out of 22 drones that Russia launched over three Ukrainian regions.

RT/AP

When one of the Afenifere chieftains who had gone to commiserate with Pastor Enoch Adeboye over the death of the son reported that the man showed them a video of Sunday Igboho insulting him, it occurred to me how much this big man of God is affected by public opinion. Otherwise, why would someone like Adeboye care about the opinion of someone like Igboho that he would justify his politics? Some people’s criticism of you should always fly beneath the radar of your notice. For Adeboye to pay attention to critics, to the point of even singling out an acerbic individual, something has shifted in the social culture.

For a society that lacks a culture of accountability, the internet has made imperviousness to the critics harder. So much has the internet shrunk the social distance that the influential class must now deal with a plebian public whose existence they would not have been aware of before the age of Web 2.0. From the political class who will send the police after you over social media comments, to Nobel Laureates and even megachurch pastors, the internet has bent the hierarchical relations of power between the big man and the small fries. The radicalism the internet allows is both the anarchist’s ideal universe and the conservative’s nightmare. No one is spared criticism or ridicule in the internet’s court of public opinion.

Someone like Adeboye has greatly suffered on the internet and in many cases, his own words were parsed to convict him. Things pastors used to say within the confines of their churches now hit the internet and make them sound unreasonable.

Take, for example, the story Adeboye told of the billionaires in his church who paid “hefty” tithes and demanded a monthly account of how the money was being spent. He said he did not find a biblical justification for their request, and those people suffered severe repercussions for daring to challenge him. A story like that tells you so much about Nigeria’s culture of underdevelopment. The RCCG churches in the USA, do they not give regular account to their congregation? If the IRS demands to see their accounts, will Adeboye tell them there is no basis for giving in to such request? Their society is organised, and their God is not so shady that he would destroy people for making reasonable requests.

Adeboye’s recent admission of doctrinal error over tithes is another victory for the internet. Daddy Freeze (Ifedayo Olarinde), who galvanised other disgruntled elements over the issue of tithes should be proud of what he has achieved. When he began to claim the doctrine of tithe as preached in the contemporary Pentecostal church was unbiblical, hardly any famous Pentecostal pastor did not demystify himself just to attack him—a mere individual. Yet, no matter how much they spun it, nobody who has read the Bible or history books properly would ever agree that tithes can buy you eternity or a good life. That is a transactional gospel, tantamount to the Catholic Church’s selling indulgences in the Middle Ages.

By publicly apologising, Adeboye joins the league of famous prosperity gospel preachers like Benny Hinn and Creflo Dollar who have also admitted their errors over tithes. Except that Adeboye’s apology came across as a non-apology. He could have stopped at saying he was wrong, but no, he still dug further by saying “ten percent was for beginners” and people should “give violently” (what does that even mean?). He could have stayed focused and stopped putting percentages on people’s money.

It would be setting the bar too low to applaud Adeboye for making the minimum effort of apologising. Merely saying “sorry” is the easy part. The real test of Adeboye’s remorse and integrity on this matter would be him dedicating himself to undoing the structures that the wrong doctrines have created within the RCCG and across denominations where people have looked up to him. The doctrinal and administrative mechanisms for milking people of their money must also be systematically dismantled. He must actively preach against a religion where the things of God have become commodities to be purchased, and where worship means nothing without money.

Through the legitimacy tithe sermons like Adeboye’s provide, some preachers have run amok with a transactional gospel that sometimes even puts Adeboye up as the quintessence of the truth of such theology. Even some preachers whose sons have become ministers actively carry on with the same doctrine of give! give! give! as if that is all there is to religion.

Things are so bad in some Pentecostal churches that preachers now claim that Adam was sent out of the garden because he did not pay tithes, or that Job faced tribulations because of tithes. By what theological permutation does one even arrive at such a twisted conclusion? Some of these preachers forget that some of us can read the Bible for ourselves, and we have access to a wide variety of literature written by erudite people against which we can crosscheck their preaching. Like the Berean church, we can study to discern and reject nonsense. Thanks to social media, we can also broadcast our dissent.

Let me preempt those about to tell us to mind our business because tithe and Adeboye’s doctrinal errancy are a family affair. First, you are mistaken because there is something called “a matter of public interest.” Look it up on Google. A society where your preachers teach that God punishes people for asking a pastor to give account is one where politicians too will adopt the same standard. Second, tithes and the religious relationship they spawn are transactions of faith. The people who seek refuge from a troubled world in the church give in good faith; the tithe-hustling pastors who manipulate them into giving what they cannot legitimately afford confront them with bad faith. Society itself is built on the infrastructure of faith; whether you are a believer or not, we all have the collective responsibility to ensure that people’s faith in certain institutions are not abused. Looking away from the abuse of faith in religious institution is one step away from looking away from similar abuses in the integrity of healthcare, banking, educational, and other social systems.

Finally, I must restate that the issue at stake is not whether people should give to churches. Worldwide, non-profit organizations rely on public donations to run. Personally, I would not mind giving to my former university, but nobody has ever asked. As far as I know, no Vice Chancellor has taken the initiative to create a scheme that allows regular donations from alumni. The result is that outside churches that have created such a structure, our part of the world hardly makes public donations. What we do is more at a personal level rather than institutional. It is a culture that has both its good sides and its shortcomings.

If you belong to a church or similar community, you should give to support them. Churches need regular donations to operate. Many local churches have social welfare projects, and their efforts are why society has not broken down entirely in this Tinubu economy. Their efforts might be invisible to the public, but they have helped families pay house rent and school fees, sent food items, and even paid hospital bills. All these they do in addition to other moral support they provide. Initiatives like that deserve support, and whoever is led to give to support should do so. What is unacceptable is making exaggerated promises to get more money out of people. No, God will not make you billionaires because you paid tithe. And no, your life is not guaranteed because you paid tithe. Pastors who espouse that logic are no different from money ritualists.

Punch

Mark Travers

Mental models are cognitive frameworks or representations that help individuals understand and interpret the world around them. They are the mental shortcuts or simplified versions of reality that people use to process information, make decisions and solve problems. Mental models influence how we perceive situations, predict outcomes and decide on courses of action.

Here are two essential mental models for making intelligent decisions and how to use them effectively.

1. Probabilistic Thinking

Probabilistic thinking is a mental model that involves making decisions based on the likelihood of various outcomes rather than certainty. Instead of thinking in absolute terms (e.g., something will or will not happen), probabilistic thinking assesses the probability or chance of different scenarios occurring. It involves:

• Assessing likelihoods. Estimating the probability of various outcomes based on available data or past experiences.
• Considering multiple scenarios. Evaluating several possible futures rather than focusing on a single expected result.
• Weighing risks and benefits. Making decisions by comparing the potential gains and losses of different actions, accounting for their likelihood.
• Avoiding certainty bias. Recognizing that few things are guaranteed and embracing uncertainty as a part of decision-making.

For instance, a manager estimates a 70% chance of completing a challenging project on time but acknowledges a 30% risk of delays due to potential issues. By evaluating these probabilities, the manager chooses to proceed with the project while implementing contingency plans, such as reallocating resources or adjusting timelines, to mitigate risks and increase the likelihood of success.

Even after years of studying probability, individuals struggle to apply probabilistic thinking in real-life situations, suggests a 2023 studypublished in the International Journal of Studies in Education and Science. It reveals that people often struggle with correctly applying probabilistic reasoning in uncertain situations, leading to errors such as:

• Overconfidence. Participants often relied on their previous experiences without critically analyzing all possibilities. They assumed that they had equal chances of winning or making the right choice without considering the actual probabilities.
• Habitual decision-making. Many decisions were made based on habit or past experiences rather than a rational evaluation of the options available. This led them to make choices without assessing the consequences of each possibility.
• Equiprobability fallacy. Participants exhibited a common misconception that all random events or outcomes have an equal probability of occurring, even when this was not the case.
• Difficulty in analyzing probabilities. Participants struggled to identify and evaluate all possible outcomes in uncertain situations, which affected their ability to make informed decisions.

The study suggests a cross-examination approach that involves using targeted, critical questions to assess and challenge individuals’ reasoning and decision-making processes. It requires participants to explain and justify their choices in uncertain situations, often prompting them to reconsider their initial assumptions and explore all possible outcomes.

2. Second-Order Thinking

Second-order thinking is a mental model that involves looking beyond the immediate effects of a decision to consider its longer-term and indirect consequences. Instead of just asking, “what will happen if I do this?” it also asks, “and then what?”

This approach helps anticipate potential ripple effects, make more intelligent, strategic decisions that others might overlook and avoid unintended consequences. It involves:

• Assessing long-term impacts and avoiding short-term traps.Assessing how a decision will affect future outcomes and scenarios over time and focusing on choosing options that may not provide immediate rewards but may lead to better long-term results.
• Recognizing chain reactions.Understanding that one action can set off a chain of interconnected events or outcomes.
• System interactions. Considering how various elements within a system will respond and interact with each other due to a decision.

When it comes to decision-making, choose options that not only have immediate benefits (first-order effects) but also continue to provide positive outcomes when you consider the long-term and indirect consequences (second-order and third-order effects).

In other words, a good decision remains beneficial even when you think through its future impacts and ripple effects over time. For instance, hiring unsuitable employees may solve immediate staffing needs (first-order effect), but it can lead to significant long-term issues.

Poor hires often result in lower productivity, reduced team morale and increased turnover, which disrupts business operations (second-order effect). Over time, this can damage the company’s reputation, making it harder to attract top talent and increasing hiring and training costs (third-order effect). Ultimately, these compounded issues can hinder the company’s growth and profitability in the long term.

By integrating these mental models into your daily decision-making, you’ll not only make more intelligent choices but also develop a deeper understanding of the complexities behind each decision and what it entails.

Forbes

In a move that underscores the tensions within Nigeria’s federal system, 16 state governments have approached the Supreme Court, seeking a declaration that the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) is unconstitutional. The states argue that the EFCC’s establishment violates the principle of federalism, which allocates certain powers and responsibilities to states, and they contend that the agency lacks constitutional authority to operate in their jurisdictions without state consent.

The suit, originally filed by the Kogi State Government (SC/CV/178/2023), now includes states such as Ondo, Edo, Oyo, Ogun, and Enugu, among others. At the heart of the case is the claim that the EFCC’s enabling legislation—the EFCC Establishment Act of 2004—was based on a United Nations Convention against corruption, but the proper constitutional process for incorporating international conventions into domestic law was not followed. According to the plaintiffs, Section 12 of the 1999 Constitution mandates that for such a law to be valid, it must receive the approval of a majority of Nigeria’s state Houses of Assembly, a step they assert was bypassed.

The 16 states argue that this lack of adherence to constitutional procedure renders the EFCC’s activities illegal in states that did not sanction its establishment. They further contend that, as a federal agency, the EFCC cannot encroach on matters related to the administration and management of state funds, which should fall within the exclusive jurisdiction of the states.

This case highlights a broader debate about the balance of power between Nigeria’s federal and state governments. The states maintain that the federal government, through agencies like the EFCC and the Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit (NFIU), should not have unilateral authority over state matters, especially those related to financial administration. The governors seek reliefs that would prevent the EFCC and NFIU from investigating or interfering in the financial activities of states without their approval.

A seven-member panel of Supreme Court justices, led by Uwani Abba-Aji, has scheduled a hearing for 22 October 2024. The outcome of this case could have significant implications for federalism in Nigeria, potentially reshaping the relationship between the federal government and state authorities in key areas such as law enforcement and financial oversight.

Despite President Bola Tinubu’s efforts to position foreign capital inflows as a solution to Nigeria’s ongoing economic challenges, latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) highlights a troubling trend of underperformance. In the second quarter (Q2) of 2024, Nigeria’s capital importation fell by 22.85% to $2.60 billion, down from $3.37 billion in the first quarter, underscoring the difficulties the country faces in drawing foreign investment.

This decline comes despite a year-on-year increase of 152.8% compared to Q2 2023, suggesting that while Nigeria has made some gains, they are not sustainable or robust enough to significantly impact the economy.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), which is crucial for long-term economic growth, plunged to an all-time low of $29.83 million in Q2 2024, a drop of 65.33% from the same period in 2023 and a staggering 74.97% decrease from the preceding quarter. This sharp decline in FDI stands in stark contrast to the government’s promises of attracting significant foreign capital to spur job creation and economic recovery.

Most of the capital inflows during the period came from foreign portfolio investments (FPI), which accounted for 53.93% of the total, followed by other investments, while FDI accounted for a meager 1.15%. The reliance on volatile portfolio investments over more stable and long-term FDI raises concerns about the sustainability of Nigeria’s economic growth trajectory.

This downturn in FDI highlights the persistent challenges Nigeria faces, including a difficult global economic environment, policy uncertainty, and structural domestic issues. Despite the government’s efforts to create a favorable investment climate, the sharp decline in FDI reflects investor apprehension about committing long-term resources to Nigeria, further complicating Tinubu’s plans to leverage foreign capital as a key element in addressing Nigeria’s economic woes.

Human rights violations in Nigeria have reached alarming levels under President Bola Tinubu’s administration, with the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) reporting an unprecedented 305,300 cases in September 2024 alone. This disturbing figure highlights a growing trend of abuse, with the commission raising the alarm over the surge in complaints since Tinubu assumed office last year.

Anthony Ojukwu, the Executive Secretary of the NHRC, expressed deep concern over the escalating number of human rights abuses, noting that each statistic represents a real person whose dignity has been violated. “These figures are not just numbers—they are lives shattered by injustice, fear, and oppression. We must respond with urgency,” Ojukwu said at a recent event in Abuja.

The report painted a grim picture, revealing that the North-West region recorded the highest number of complaints, with violations ranging from restrictions on religious freedoms to degrading treatment by law enforcement agencies. Other concerning trends included a spike in sexual and gender-based violence, with 70 cases of rape reported in September, as well as increasing instances of mob attacks and extrajudicial killings.

The NHRC also highlighted the excessive use of force by police during protests, such as the violent crackdown on the #FearlessInOctober demonstrations in Abuja, where protesters calling for good governance and accountability were met with tear gas and brutality. “These actions are a blatant violation of the fundamental rights of citizens,” Ojukwu remarked, pointing to the continued disregard for civil liberties under the Tinubu administration.

Even more alarming is the rising death toll from road accidents, with over 1,471 fatalities in the first quarter of 2024. The NHRC emphasized that such preventable tragedies severely undermine human rights, calling on the government to take immediate action to address these issues.

The staggering rise in complaints month after month paints a damning picture of the state of human rights in Nigeria. From 1,147 cases in January to over 305,000 in September, the data reflects a worsening crisis, raising serious concerns about the Tinubu government’s ability—or willingness—to protect the rights and welfare of its citizens.

Parents of students in public school boarding houses in Lagos State are up in arms against school authorities over the sudden hike in boarding fees from ₦35,000 to ₦100,000 per term, coupled with a sharp decline in the quality and quantity of food served to their children. The dispute, which has been simmering for weeks, has now escalated, with parents planning a mass protest against what they describe as an “oppressive and corrupt” policy.

Dapo Dawodu, the State Chairman of the Parents Forum for Lagos Model Colleges, has been at the forefront of the opposition. In a statement, Dawodu condemned the actions of school principals who, despite a directive from the Lagos State House of Assembly, have insisted on implementing the fee hike. “Events of the past week have shown that there are no lengths to which our principals and their cohorts cannot sink in their inordinate enterprise of imposing this unjust ₦100,000 boarding fee on us,” Dawodu said.

In response to parents’ protests, the Lagos State House of Assembly had summoned representatives of the Parents Forum and the Ministry of Education to mediate the conflict. Following the meeting on September 16, 2024, the Assembly ruled that the existing boarding fee of ₦35,000 should remain in place for the first term of the 2024/2025 school session. Additionally, the Assembly mandated the formation of Parent Forums in all schools and tasked parents with overseeing school kitchens, dining rooms, and hostels.

However, according to Dawodu, these directives were blatantly ignored. Within days, school principals reintroduced the ₦100,000 fee and, in some cases, sent students home whose parents refused to comply with the increase. “It is disheartening that those responsible for educating our children are themselves disobedient to authority,” Dawodu lamented.

Parents are also outraged by reports of food rationing in boarding houses. Dawodu detailed how some students were segregated in the dining hall, receiving inadequate portions, while others who agreed to the increased fees were given preferential treatment. Additionally, in a move that further aggravated the situation, principals reportedly expelled food vendors from school premises, preventing students from supplementing their meager meals.

Parents argue that there is no justification for the fee hike, given that federal Unity Schools charge just ₦30,000 per term while offering better conditions. Dawodu revealed that the Parents Forum had conducted a detailed analysis of the cost of feeding students, which showed that the ₦35,000 fee was adequate to cover their needs, even accounting for inflation. “This fee hike is a blatant attempt by some principals to extort parents under the guise of managing ‘subsidy removal inflation,’” he said.

Dawodu further accused school administrators of leveraging the boarding fee fund for personal gain, with many teachers reportedly vying for principal positions in Model Colleges due to the lucrative opportunities created by the fund. “With inflation now eating into their corrupt profits, these principals are waging war on already oppressed parents in the current economic climate,” he added.

As tensions continue to rise, the Parents Forum has announced plans for a major protest at the Lagos State House of Assembly. “We shall once again move to the House of Assembly this week in the mother of all parents’ protests,” Dawodu declared, urging parents to remain steadfast in their opposition to the fee hike.

The Forum is calling on the Lagos State government to intervene urgently, warning that the welfare of thousands of students is at stake. “Our children are being starved and psychologically tortured by those who claim to have their best interests at heart,” Dawodu said, vowing that parents will not relent until justice is served.