About 24 million voters gathered in February at over 176,000 voting points across the country to choose Nigeria’s next president, but only five persons will cast crucial votes at the first of two court stages in a conference room in Abuja in September.

The fate of the president-elect, Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), will continue to hang in the balance months after he would have been inaugurated as Nigeria’s president on 29 May. His stay in office will still be steeped in uncertainties until the handful of judges that will hear the cases challenging his victory hand down their verdicts.

Election petitions set the stage for a paradox for democracy to break its prime “majority rule”. The choice of the minority can take the place of the decision of the majority.

It gives a reason for the riveting attention millions of Nigerians and foreigners within and outside Nigerian borders are paying to the proceedings of the Presidential Election Petition Court in Abuja, which began sitting last week Monday.

The court will review a mix of varied, tricky legal and factual questions that have been raised in three petitions pending before the court.

After the courtroom fireworks that promise to last months, the five jurists will retire to their conference room, a drab, small conclave in the sprawling complex of the Court of Appeal headquarters perched on the fringes of the Three Arms Zone, Abuja – the domicile of Nigeria’s highest executive, legislative and judicial powers – to deliberate and possibly vote to take a final decision, in case there are disagreements on issues thrown up at trial.

They will return to a packed courtroom to announce their decision – whether the result of the 25 February presidential election declared by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) on 1 March was valid or not valid.

The court has up to September, the end of a statutory period of 180 days from March when the aggrieved candidates filed their petitions, to give its decision.

The decision is, however, not final, as a displeased party can still appeal to the Supreme Court. But lawyers say the Court of Appeal’s decision sets the tone of the final decision of the Supreme Court, either in concurrence or disagreement.

Using publicly- available information, here are the profiles of the five appeal court jurists who will give the much-awaited vital decision in September.

Haruna Simon Tsammani

Tsammani, who hails from Tafawa Balewa Local Government Area of Bauchi State, was unveiled as the presiding justice of the five-member panel of the Presidential Election Petition Court last week.

The 63-year-old, who occupies a relatively distant 12th position on the seniority list of the 76 judges of the Court of Appeal, must be well-regarded to be appointed to head the panel, a prized responsibility that is ordinarily reserved for the president of the court, some lawyers have said.

The immediate-past President of the Court of Appeal, Zainab Bulkachuwa, appointed herself to the position during the 2019 election cycle and only withdrew after succumbing to relentless calls on her by the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to step down.

Mohammed Garba, who replaced Bulkachuwa, and another member of the panel, Abdu Aboki, were later elevated to the Supreme Court bench.

Called to the Nigerian bar after undergoing one-year-long legal studies at the Nigerian Law School in Lagos in 1983, Tsammani has spent the last four decades of his life in the legal profession. This was after he completed his law degree programme at Ahmadu Bello University (ABU), Zaria, between 1972 and 1982.

The experienced jurist began his journey on the bench with his appointment as a judge of the High Court of Bauchi State on 17 September 1998, about 24 years ago.

The longest-serving Justice of the Court of Appeal among the five members of the panel, Tsammani has spent half of his 24 years as a judge on the Court of Appeal bench which he was elevated to on 16 July 2010.

This is his first time participating in the panel of a presidential election petition court, a rarity that only a handful of judges in a generation are opportune to be involved in.

However, it is definitely not his first time adjudicating on an election petition or political case.

On 4 July 2020, Tsammani delivered one of the judgements of the Court of Appeal in Abuja that affirmed the second term election of Governor Yahaya Bello of Kogi State.

Well-familiar with intra-and inter-party disputes in Nigeria, Tsammani gave the lead judgement of the Court of Appeal that handed back the control of APC in Kano State to the outgoing governor, Abdullahi Gaduje, in February last year.

He also delivered the judgement of the Court of Appeal in Abuja that issued the order restraining the Rivers and Lagos state governments from taking action on their bids to collect Value Added Tax (VAT).

About a month later, in October 2021, he led the three-member panel of the court that dismissed a suit by the suspended National Chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Uche Secondus, to allow the party to hold a hitch-free national convention.

Tsammani also led the Court of Appeal’s panel that gave the October 2022 judgement suspending the release of the leader of the proscribed Indigenous People of Biafra, Nnamdi Kanu, from custody after the charges against the secessionist were dismissed in an earlier judgement of the court.

Stephen Jonah Adah

Adah hails from Dekina Local Government Area of Kogi State in North-central Nigeria.

Number 23 on the list of Justices of the Court of Appeal, he is the second most senior judge on the panel of the Presidential Election Petition Court. He is currently the presiding justice of the division of the court in Asaba, Delta State.

Adah is 65 years old.

He is equally a graduate of the law faculty of Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, and the Lagos campus of the Nigerian Law School. He was called to the Nigerian bar in 1982, about 41 years ago – a year earlier than Tsammani.

His journey on the bench began with his appointment as a judge of the Federal High Court 24 years ago on 12 November 1998.

He was appointed to the Court of Appeal bench on 5 November 2012, about 10 years ago and over two years after Tsammani.

Adah has a robust record of high-profile cases with diverse subject matters to his name. His decisions have triggered applause and controversies.

As a Federal High Court judge for 12 years, he gave judgements that portrayed his leaning towards the uncompromising defence of the supremacy of the constitution and the rights it grants citizens, as well as his aversion for arbitrariness by public officers.

In May 2012, Adah nullified a provision in the Police Act prohibiting a female police officer from marrying a man of her choice without the permission of the commissioner of police in the command where she is serving.

Adah held in the judgement that the provision contained in Regulation 124 of the Police Act was unconstitutional.

He also gave the 25 June 2012 ruling that thwarted the plan of then President Goodluck Jonathan’s administration to rename the University of Lagos to Moshood Abiola University, Lagos.

On 4 May 2012, he gave the judgment that restrained then-Governor Babatunde Fashola of Lagos State from going ahead with his plan to ban or restrict the operations of commercial motorcyclists in the state. Without any law passed by the state House of Assembly to back the policy, Adah said, “It is arbitrary for the state and dictatorial in a democratic setting for the government to curtail the movement of others without any valid law passed by the National Assembly or the state House of Assembly.”

Adah’s decision inspired the law the Lagos State House of Assembly would later pass to give the ban on okada legal backing.

At the Court of Appeal, Adah delivered the lead judgement of a three-member panel that affirmed the conviction of a former Plateau State governor, Joshua Dariye, on 16 November 2018. President Muhammadu Buhari would later grant a widely condemned pardon to Dariye alongside a former governor of Taraba, Jolly Nyame, after their conviction and jailing had been affirmed by the Supreme Court.

In May 2019, Adah delivered a belated judgement that could have saved the former Chief Justice of Nigeria (CJN), Walter Onnoghen, who was controversially tried at the Code of Conduct Tribunal (CCT), and removed from office.

On 24 July 2020, he delivered the lead judgment of a panel of the Court of Appeal affirming the acquittal of a cousin to former President Goodluck Jonathan, Robert Azibaola, and his wife, Stella Azibaola, accused of money laundering involving $40 million security funds.

Later that year, on 4 December 2020, Adah led a panel of justices that affirmed the death penalty imposed on Maryam Sanda, in a celebrated murder case in which the woman was accused of stabbing her husband, Bilyaminu Bello, to death.

Less than two weeks later, the jurist, on 16 December 2020, delivered the lead judgement of a three-member panel that ordered a retrial of a former spokesperson for the PDP, Olisa Metuh, earlier jailed for seven years for money laundering by the Federal High Court in Abuja.

Adah, in his judgement, also quashed the indicting comments made by the trial judge concerning a former National Security Adviser, Sambo Dasuki, who is standing trial in a separate but related case of diverting billions of naira in arms funds.

Mr Adah trained as a teacher at Ilorin Teachers’ College, Ilorin between 1975 and 1976 before gaining admission to study law at ABU in 1978.

Misitura Bolaji-Yusuf

Bolaji-Yusuf, the only female member of the panel of the Presidential Election Petition Court, hails from Oyo-West Local Government Area of Oyo State, Southwest Nigeria.

The jurist, a law graduate of the law faculty of Obafemi Awolowo University, is 63 years old.

Appointed to the Court of Appeal on 24 March 2014, about nine years ago, Bolaji-Yusuf now occupies the 31st position on the roll call of the judges of the court.

Before her elevation to the Court of Appeal bench, she had put in a total of 17 years into her judicial career which began with her appointment to the High Court of Oyo State on 30 January 1997.

Adding her nine years at the Court of Appeal to her 17 years on the High Court bench, Bolaji-Yusuf becomes the longest-serving judge among the five judges on the panel of the Presidential Election Petition Court, with 26 years of unbroken career as a judge to her credit.

Her entire legal career beginning with her call to the bar in 1984 is about 39 years old. In terms of the length of their legal profession, she comes behind both Tsammani and Adah.

She currently serves at the Asaba Division of the Court of Appeal where she ranks behind Adah as the second most senior judge.

Not many cases have been credited to her in the media, but there is one that cast her in the mould of a courageous judge.

On 12 January 2006, as a judge of the High Court of Oyo State, Bolaji-Yusuf issued an order that invalidated the steps taken by then-acting Chief Judge of the state, Afolabi Adeniran, which led to the illegal removal of the then governor, Rashidi Ladoja.

Although the Acting Chief Judge withdrew the case from her, her ruling was the first major blow to the entire impeachment process which the Supreme Court would also later nullify. The Supreme Court declared the process null and void and reinstated Ladoja in its judgement delivered on 11 November 2006.

About a month before her elevation to the Court of Appeal, the judge was reported to have overseen a stormy court proceeding as a High Court judge in Ibadan in February 2014. During the hearing, most likely to be one of the last she conducted before her elevation, Bolaji-Yusuf was reported to have successfully calmed the war of nerves between opposing lawyers in the criminal case. Before the proceedings of that day, she was to have affirmed the jurisdiction of the court to hear the case.

She was also reported to have delivered the lead judgement of the three-member panel of the Benin Division of the Court of Appeal that affirmed the first term election of Governor Godwin Obaseki in June 2017.

Boloukuoromo Moses Ugo

Ugo hails from Kolokuma/Qpokuma Local Government Area in Bayelsa State, Southsouth Nigeria.

At 57, he is the youngest among the judges on the panel of the Presidential Election Petition Court.

The graduate of the law faculty of the University of Calabar was appointed to the Court of Appeal bench on 24 March 2014, making this year his ninth on the court’s bench where he occupies the 44th position on the roll call.

Before his elevation to the Court of Appeal, he served as a judge of the Bayelsa State High Court for eight years, dating back to his appointment on 21 March 2014.

In total, Ugo has put in a total of 17 years to his career on the bench, and a total of 33 years to his legal profession that started with his call to bar in 1990. He also attended the Lagos campus of the Nigerian Law School between 1989 and 1990.

Ugo, who is currently serving at the Kano Division of the Court of Appeal, is hardly read about in the media. It will perhaps take digging deep into law reports to find out the important cases he has handled.

His participation in the Presidential Election Petition Court panel is a pivotal turn in his career, placing him on a national, if not global stage where the public can gain insights into the workings of his judicial mind for the first time.

Abba Bello Mohammed

Mohammed hails from Kano State, North-west Nigeria, and is the third ABU, Zaria graduate on the Presidential Election Petition Court panel.

He was called to the Nigerian bar in 1984, marking the beginning of his legal career of about 39 years.

Like the other members of the panel, Mohammed was called to bar after passing his bar examinations at the Lagos campus of the Nigerian Law School.

The 62-year-old has less than two years on the Court of Appeal bench as he was appointed on 28 June 2021, the last time judges were appointed to the Court of Appeal bench.

The little-known judge, who is currently on a posting to the Ibadan, Oyo State Division of the Court of Appeal, ranks lowest in terms of seniority on the court’s bench among the judges on the panel of the Presidential Election Petition Court. He occupies the 71st position on the list of judges of the Court of Appeal, ranking higher than only five others with whom he was elevated to the bench in 2021.

Before his elevation to the Court of Appeal, Mohammed served on the bench of the FCT High Court, Abuja, from 2010, making about 10 to 11 years.

His participation in the Presidential Election Petition Court may become a defining milestone in his profile that has little to reference so far in the public space.

Not yet a significant case has been credited to him in media reports, perhaps many could be found to his name in legal reports.

 

PT

Senate, on Tuesday, directed Clerk of the National Assembly to transmit to President Muhammadu Buhari a bill seeking to provide for independent candidacy in elections from local government to the national level.

The bill proposes that for any Nigerian national to contest presidential election as independent candidate, he or she must obtain the verified signatures of at least 20 per cent of registered voters from each of the 36 states of the federation, “provided that a registered voter shall not sign for more than one independent candidate in respect of the same office.”

For governorship election, the independent candidate must obtain the verified signatures of at least 20 per cent of registered voters from each of the local government areas of the state.

The bill also states that anyone willing to contest National Assembly elections must obtain the verified signatures of at least 20 per cent of registered voters from each of the local government areas in the respective senatorial district or federal constituency.

The proposed legislation empowers the Independent National Electoral Commission to prescribe the payment of administrative fees by independent candidates for respective elections.

It mandated the electoral body to waive 50 per cent of the administrative fees for women candidates, among others.

The Constitution Alteration Bill No. 58 would be transmitted to the President,  in line with the provisions of the Authentication Act.

The Clerk was also directed to transmit to the President, Constitution Amendment Bill No. 46, which seeks to include the presiding officers of the National Assembly in the membership of the National Security Council.

The two proposals were part of the Constitution Alteration Bills transmitted to state Houses of Assembly for concurrence last year but not part of the 35 that secured the required approval of 24 out of 36 state assemblies.

Deputy Senate President, Ovie Omo-Agege, in a motion during Tuesday’s plenary, informed his colleagues that Gombe State House of Assembly had approved the Constitution Alteration Bill Nos. 46 and 58 and forwarded its resolution to the National Assembly.

Omo-Agege, who is the Chairman of the Senate Ad Hoc Committee on Constitution Review, said with the approval of the Gombe Assembly, the bills on the independent candidacy and inclusion of National Assembly presiding officers in the National Security Council membership have met the provisions of Section 9(2) of the Constitution for passage.

The Senate, after adopting the motion, directed the Clerk of the National Assembly to transmit the bills to the President for his assent.

 

Punch

President-elect Bola Tinubu has met with Rabiu Kwankwaso, one of his opponents in the February 25, 2023 elections.

Kwankwaso, who ran on the platform of the New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP), placed fourth in the election, winning only Kano State, a stronghold of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

According to sources, the duo met for hours in Paris, capital of France, on Monday.

Tinubu reportedly told Kwankwaso to reach out to his political associates on the need to work together.

The incoming president and his guest were said to have agreed to hold subsequent meetings.

While Kwankwaso’s wife and Abdulmimin Jibrin, an NNPP lawmaker-elect, accompanied him to the meeting, Tinubu’s wife and Femi Gbajabiamila, outgoing Speaker of the House of Representatives, were part of the meeting.

“The President-elect and Kwankwaso met for over 4 hours behind close door in Paris on Monday. The meeting which started at about 12.30pm ended at about 4.45pm. The meeting was attended by Speaker of the House of Representatives Femi Gbajabiamila. Kwankwaso was accompanied to the meeting by member elect from kano Abdulmumin Jibrin,” the source said.

“Oluremi Tinubu was also there to receive Kwankwaso’s wife Salamatu who came with her husband. Discussions were centered around their long term friendship since their days in the National Assembly in 1992, national unity and development, priorities for the new government, national assembly contests and the plan by the President-elect for a government of national unity which Kwankwaso has in principle accepted to join.”

The source said Tinubu also hinted at reconciling Governor Abdullahi Ganduje of Kano and Kwankwaso.

Ganduje had succeeded Kwankwso in 2015, but the duo fell apart shortly after.

 

Daily Trust

Bharti Airtel Ltd., the wireless phone operator owned by Indian billionaire Sunil Mittal, said efforts by Nigeria to curb rampant kidnappings cost the company an estimated $110 million in annual revenue after authorities suspended unregistered users.

Nigerian regulators barred voice services for 13.6 million Airtel subscribers in April 2022 after they failed to link their phone lines to national identity numbers, the New Delhi-based firm said in an earnings filing on Tuesday. Just under half of those have since submitted IDs, while only 3.5 million customers have been fully verified and unbarred, hitting group revenue growth in the year through March by almost 2.4%.

 

Bloomberg

Gunmen have killed four people in the Amiyi/Eke Ochuche communities of Ogbaru LGA in Anambra.

Speaking on the incident, Ikenga Tochukwu, police spokesperson in Anambra, said the gunmen attacked the convoy conveying staff of the United States consulate.

He said the “hoodlums murdered two of the PMF operatives, and two staff of the consulate”, adding that bodies of the victims were set ablaze by the gunmen. 

“Security forces have embarked on a rescue/recovery operation in Ogbaru LGA, following an attack on a convoy of staff of US consulate today 16/5/2023 by 3:30 pm along Atani, Osamale road. The hoodlums murdered two of the PMF operatives, and two staff of the consulate, and set their bodies ablaze and their vehicles,” he said.

“Also, the arsonist/murderers on sighting the responding joint security forces abducted two police operatives, the driver of the second vehicle and took to their heels. No US citizen was in the convoy.

“The command, while reacting to the incident, regrets that a convoy of such or any related will enter the state without recourse to the police in the area or any security agency, assured that the battle against the insurgents in the state is focused and it will remain sustained until such a time security stability is fully restored”.

The US mission in Nigeria confirmed the incident, noting that the security of their personnel is paramount.

“We confirm there was an incident on May 16 in Anambra state.  U.S. Mission Nigeria personnel are working with Nigerian security services to investigate. The security of our personnel is always paramount, and we take extensive precautions when organising trips to the field. We have no further comment at this time,” a spokesperson of the US mission said.

 

The Cable

Gunmen attacked villages in Plateau state, northcentral Nigeria, killing 29 people and razing houses, survivors and authorities said Tuesday.

Many villagers remained unaccounted for Tuesday evening after the attack, residents said. It was the latest incident in a spiral of violence mainly targeting remote communities in the West African nation.

The gunmen targeted three villages in Plateau state’s Mangu local government area late Monday night and killed several people either with gunfire or after setting their houses ablaze, resident Philip Pamshak said.

“As I am talking to you, they are still attacking people. The tension is still high and there are places the bandits still control, so people are not able to go and check if there are others killed,” Pamshak said.

Plateau Gov. Simon Lalong said he was disturbed by the attack and directed security forces to search for the suspects and prosecute them, according to a statement issued by his spokesman.

“He (the governor) describes this as yet another attempt by crises merchants and criminals to return the state to the dark days of pain and agony,” said Makut Macham, Lalong's spokesman.

Such attacks have become rampant in many parts of Nigeria’s northern region, where several armed groups target villages with inadequate security, either killing or abducting residents and travelers for ransom.

Arrests are rare in such attacks, for which no group typically takes responsibility. However, authorities have in the past identified many of the attackers as former pastoralists who took up arms after decades of conflict with farmers over limited access to land and water.

The security crisis has led to thousands of deaths and defied several government and security measures in the last year.

After the latest killings in Plateau, Lalong directed the emergency response agency to visit the affected communities “to bring succor” to victims and their families, many of whom have either fled the area or have lost their homes, adding to Nigeria’s worsening humanitarian crisis.

 

Bloomberg

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Patriot missile defense system in Ukraine likely damaged - US sources

A U.S.-made Patriot missile defense system being used by Ukraine likely suffered some damage from a Russian strike, two U.S. officials said on Tuesday, adding that it did not appear to have been destroyed.

The Patriot system is one of an array of sophisticated air defense units supplied by the West to help Ukraine repel a Russian campaign of air strikes that has targeted critical infrastructure, power facilities and other sites.

One U.S. official, speaking on the condition of anonymity and citing initial information, said Washington and Kyiv were already talking about the best way to repair the system and at this point it did not appear the system would have to be removed from Ukraine.

The official added that the United States would have a better understanding in the coming days and information could change over time.

The Patriot is considered to be one of the most advanced U.S. air defense systems, including against aircraft, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles. It typically includes launchers along with radar and other support vehicles.

Russia's defense ministry said on Tuesday that it had destroyed a U.S.-built Patriot surface-to-air missile defense system with a "hypersonic" Kinzhal missile in an overnight strike on Ukraine.

Ukraine said earlier that it had shot down 18 Russian missiles overnight, including an entire volley of six Kinzhals. When asked about the Ukrainian claim, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu dismissed it, the RIA news agency reported.

It was not clear which Western weapon Ukraine used. The Pentagon had no immediate comment.

** Kyiv says it shoots down volley of Russian hypersonic missiles

Ukraine said on Tuesday it had shot down six Russian Kinzhal missiles in a single night, thwarting a weapon Moscow has touted as a next-generation hypersonic missile that was all but unstoppable.

When asked about the Ukrainian claim, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu dismissed it, the RIA news agency reported. His ministry said a Kinzhal had destroyed a U.S.-built Patriot surface-to-air missile defence system.

“A high-precision strike by the hypersonic Kinzhal missile hit a U.S.-made Patriot anti-aircraft missile system in the city of Kyiv,” the defence ministry said in a statement.

The commander-in-chief of Ukraine's armed forces, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, had said earlier that his forces had intercepted the six Kinzhals launched from aircraft, as well as nine Kalibr cruise missiles from ships in the Black Sea and three Iskanders fired from land.

Russia's Shoigu was quoted as saying the number of claimed Ukrainian missile intercepts in general is "three times greater than the number we launch".

"And they get the type of missiles wrong all the time. That's why they don't hit them," he said, without elaborating.

It was the first time Ukraine had claimed to have struck an entire volley of multiple Kinzhal missiles, and if confirmed, would be a demonstration of the effectiveness of its newly deployed Western air defences.

The United States and the European Union have supplied Ukraine with weaponry to defend itself since Russia invaded in February 2022.

EU and NATO member Hungary has refused, however, to provide any military equipment to neighbour Ukraine, and on Tuesday, the government said it had blocked the next tranche of the EU's off-budget military support known as the European Peace Facility.

Air raid sirens blared across nearly all of Ukraine early on Tuesday and were heard over the Ukrainian capital and the surrounding region for more than three hours.

"A year ago, we were not able to shoot down most of the terrorists' missiles, especially ballistic ones," President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in an address to the Council of Europe rights body in Iceland by video link.

"And I am asking one thing now. If we are able to do this, is there anything we can't do?"

The meeting of European leaders over two days was to focus on ways to hold Russia to account for its war, officials said.

Russia says its invasion was necessary to counter threats to its security posed by Ukraine's growing ties to the West.

Ukraine and its allies call it an unprovoked war of conquest and Ukraine says it won't stop fighting until all Russian forces leave its land.

FLASHES OF LIGHT AND DEBRIS

The six Kinzhals were among 27 missiles Russia fired at Ukraine over 24 hours, Ukraine's military said in its evening update on Tuesday, lighting up Kyiv with flashes and raining debris after they were blasted from the sky.

It was unclear which Western weapon Ukraine used to defend against the Kinzhals. The Pentagon had no immediate comment.

For its part, Russia's defence ministry said its forces delivered a concentrated strike with long-range air- and sea-based high-precision weapons at Ukrainian forces, "as well as at places of storage of ammunition, weapons and military equipment delivered from Western countries”.

Kyiv authorities said three people were wounded by falling debris.

"It was exceptional in its density - the maximum number of attack missiles in the shortest period of time," Serhiy Popko, head of the city military administration, said on Telegram.

Ukraine's military said two S-300 missiles had also targeted infrastructure in Kostyantynivka, west of the embattled eastern city of Bakhmut.

HYPERSONIC SPEED?

This month, Ukraine said it had shot down a single Kinzhal missile over Kyiv for the first time using a newly deployed Patriot system.

The U.S. military confirmed that but did not say whether the Russian missile was flying at hypersonic speed at the time.

The U.S.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) says the Kinzhal rapidly accelerates to Mach 4 (4,900 km/h) after launch and may reach speeds of up to Mach 10 - or 10 times the speed of sound. Hypersonic weapons travel at least five times the speed of sound.

The Kinzhal missile, the name means dagger, can carry conventional or nuclear warheads up to 2,000 km. Russia used the weapon in war for the first time in Ukraine last year and has only acknowledged firing them on a few occasions.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has frequently touted the Kinzhal as proof of world-beating Russian hardware, capable of taking on NATO.

With Ukraine set to go on the offensive against Russia's invasion for the first time in six months, Russian forces are launching longer-range air strikes at the highest frequency of the war.

Ukraine says it is shooting down most missiles and drones.

 

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine says it shoots down more missiles than Russia fires – Shoigu

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu has refuted claims made by Ukrainian military officials about shooting down six Russian hypersonic Kinzhal missiles during overnight strikes on targets near the country’s capital city of Kiev.

Ukraine routinely exaggerates the effectiveness of its anti-aircraft defenses, primarily ‘intercepting’ incoming Russian munitions only with public statements, Shoigu told RIA Novosti.

“I have already said that, and I will repeat it again. We have not launched as many ‘Kinzhals’ as they allegedly shoot down every time with their statements. Moreover, the number of these ‘Ukrainian interceptions’ – and who really mans the American [anti-aircraft] complexes there, is still a big question – is three times as high as what we actually launch,” Shoigu stated.

The minister also said that Ukraine “always” misidentifies munitions used by Russia in its media statements. “That’s why they miss them,” he added, without providing any further information on the number of missiles used in the latest barrage.

Ukraine was subjected to a new massive missile and suicide drone barrage overnight, with the country’s capital city of Kiev seeing particularly intense activity by Ukrainian anti-aircraft defenses, footage circulating online suggests.

Moscow and Kiev have provided drastically different accounts of what happened overnight. Kiev claimed that it had shot down six state-of-the-art hypersonic missiles over the capital, as well as other incoming projectiles, using a battery of the US-made Patriot air defense system. The Russian military, however, said the battery was successfully hit by a Kinzhal missile. Footage available online shows multiple anti-aircraft missiles going towards an unseen target, with at least two explosions seen at the site from which they appeared to be launched.

Western media reports suggested the Patriot battery in question was likely damaged in the strike. According to CNN, citing an unidentified US official, Washington is currently assessing the extent of the damage in order to determine whether the Patriots need to be pulled back or whether on-site repairs by Ukrainian forces would be enough.

** Seven UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles shot down – Moscow

Several Storm Shadow cruise missiles, which were recently supplied to Ukraine by Britain, have been shot down by Russian air defenses over the past 24 hours, its Defense Ministry has said.

“Seven Storm Shadow long-range cruise missiles, three HARM anti-radar missiles and seven HIMARS multiple rocket launcher shells were intercepted,” the ministry’s spokesman, Lieutenant General Igor Konashenkov, announced during a briefing on Tuesday. He didn’t say where the intercepts had taken place.

According to Konashenkov, 22 Ukrainian drones were also destroyed over Russia’s newly incorporated territories: the People’s Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk, and Zaporozhye and Kherson Regions.

The spokesman said Russia’s overnight missile barrage on Ukrainian military formations, hardware, and depots of ammunition and equipment that had been provided by the West had “achieved its goal. All intended targets were hit.”

Among those targets was a US-supplied Patriot missile system, which was destroyed in the capital Kiev by a Kinzhal hypersonic missile, Konashenkov said. 

Russia first announced the downing of a Storm Shadow on Monday, saying that one such missile had been intercepted.

The authorities in Lugansk previously claimed that, over the past few days, the British munitions had been used in several Ukrainian attacks on the city, in which residential buildings were damaged.

Britain confirmed the delivery of Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles to Ukraine last week. CNN earlier reported that Kiev had received the munitions well before the official announcement. With a range of up to 300km (200 miles), Storm Shadow became the longest-range weapon supplied to Kiev by its Western backers to date. UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace claimed that the missiles would allow “Ukraine to push back Russian forces based within Ukrainian sovereign territory.”

Moscow said the decision to provide Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine was “a very unfriendly step” on the part of Britain, which revealed the country’s “unprecedented level of involvement” in the conflict. The move would lead to “serious escalation” in Ukraine, the Foreign Ministry warned, adding that Russia “reserves the right to take any measures deemed necessary to neutralize a threat” posed by the new weapons.

During more than a year of fighting, Russian officials have often pointed out that deliveries of more sophisticated arms to Ukraine by the US, UK and their allies could cross its ‘red lines’. According to Moscow, the supply of weapons and ammo, as well as intelligence sharing and training provided to Kiev’s forces, have already made Western nations de facto parties to the conflict.

 

Reuters/RT

Air strikes, artillery fire escalate as factions battle in Sudan capital

Air strikes and artillery fire intensified sharply across Sudan's capital on Tuesday, residents said, as the army sought to defend its bases from paramilitary rivals it has been fighting for more than a month.

The air strikes, explosions and clashes could be heard in the south of Khartoum, and there was heavy shelling across the River Nile in parts of the adjoining cities of Bahri and Omdurman, witnesses said.

The conflict between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has triggered unrest elsewhere in Sudan, especially in the western region of Darfur, but is concentrated in Khartoum.

It has caused a humanitarian crisis that threatens to destabilise the region, displacing more than 700,000 people inside Sudan and forcing about 200,000 to flee into neighbouring countries.

Those who have remained in the capital are struggling to survive as food supplies dwindle, health services collapse and lawlessness spreads.

The IFRC humanitarian network said 9 million people were living in close proximity to battles and under severe hardship, and cited reports of increased sexual violence against people on the move as it launched a $33 million fundraising appeal.

Officials have recorded 676 deaths and more than 5,500 injuries, but the real toll is expected to be far higher with many reports of bodies left in the streets and people struggling to bury the dead.

"The situation is unbearable. We left our house to go to a neighbour's house in Khartoum, escaping from the war, but the bombardment follows us wherever we go," said Ayman Hassan, a 32-year-old Khartoum resident.

"We don't know what the citizens did to deserve a war in the middle of the houses."

JEDDAH TALKS

Fighting has surged both in Khartoum and in Geneina, capital of West Darfur, since the two warring parties began talks in Jeddah brokered by Saudi Arabia and the United States more than a week ago.

The talks have produced a statement of principles on protecting civilians and allowing aid supplies, but mechanisms for humanitarian corridors and agreeing a ceasefire are still being discussed.

Both sides had previously announced several ceasefires, none of which stopped the fighting.

The army has mainly used air strikes and shelling as it seeks to push back RSF forces from positions across Khartoum.

It has accused the RSF of using captured army officers and their families as human shields, something the RSF has denied.

The RSF attacked major military bases in northern Omdurman and southern Khartoum on Tuesday in an apparent attempt to prevent the army from deploying heavy weaponry and fighter jets, residents and witnesses said.

The RSF said it had captured hundreds of army troops in Bahri, releasing footage of rows of seated men in uniform with RSF fighters celebrating around them. Reuters could not immediately verify the claim, which the army denied.

The army has been trying to cut off RSF supply lines and to secure strategic sites including the airport in central Khartoum and the major Al-Jaili oil refinery in Bahri, where fighting flared again on Tuesday.

RSF forces also detained Anas Omer, an outspoken senior member of the ruling party under deposed former leader Omar al-Bashir, from his home in Khartoum, Omer's son told Reuters.

The RSF has accused the army of working with loyalists of the former regime, a charge the army has denied.

HOMES DESTROYED

The war began after disputes over plans for the RSF to join the army and the future chain of command under an internationally backed deal for a political transition towards civilian rule and elections.

Army chief General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, took the top positions on Sudan's ruling council following the 2019 overthrow of Bashir during a popular uprising.

They staged a coup two years later as a deadline to hand power to civilians approached, began to mobilise their respective forces as mediators tried to finalise the transition plan.

Both sides courted foreign backing from regional states attracted by Sudan's mineral and agricultural wealth, and its strategic location between the Sahel and the Gulf.

Most of those fleeing Sudan have headed north to Egypt or west to Chad, which borders Darfur. Others have headed to Port Sudan on the Red Sea, hoping to catch boats to Saudi Arabia.

"We came from war, we lost our husbands, our homes were destroyed," said Reem, a student camped out in scorching heat in Port Sudan with hundreds of others. "Even if there were peace, where are we going to live if we go back?"

 

Reuters

Spoiler alert: I am not going to talk about how ChatGPT responds when prompted about economic-development strategies. It basically regurgitates reasonable, but mediocre ideas that it has seen in its training set. But ChatGPT’s design, which has given it far greater capabilities than its creators anticipated, offers a valuable lesson for tackling the complexities of economic development.

For more than a decade, deep neural networks (DNNs) have outperformed all other artificial-intelligence technologies, driving significant advances in computer vision, speech recognition, and translation. The emergence of generative AI chatbots like ChatGPT continue this trend.

To learn, AI algorithms require training, which can be achieved through two main approaches: supervised and unsupervised learning. In supervised learning, humans provide the computer with a set of labeled pictures such as “dog,” “cat,” “hamburger,” “car,” and so on. The algorithm is then tested to see how well it predicts the labels associated with images it has not yet seen.

The problem with the supervised approach is that it requires humans to go through the tedious process of manually labeling every picture. By contrast, unsupervised learning does not rely on labeled data. But the absence of labels raises the question of what the algorithm is supposed to learn. To address this, ChatGPT trains the algorithm simply to predict the next word of the text that is used to train it.

Predicting the next word may seem like a trivial task, akin to the auto-complete function in Google Search. But ChatGPT’s model allows it to perform highly complicated tasks, such as passing the bar exam with a better score than most high-performing law students.

The key to such feats lies in the impressive power of this simple learning process. In order to predict the next word, the algorithm is forced to develop a nuanced understanding of context, grammar, syntax, style, and much more. The level of sophistication it achieved surprised everybody, including its designers. DNNs proved capable of functioning much better without trying to incorporate into learning language models the theories that linguists had developed for decades.

The lesson for economic development is that policymakers should focus on a task that may seem mundane, provided that to excel at it, they will indirectly be forced to learn much more intricate development challenges.

By contrast, the prevailing approach in the field of development economics has been to distinguish between proximate causes and deeper determinants of growth and to focus on the latter. This approach is analogous to saying, “Instead of trying to predict the next word, understand the context and meaning of the entire book.”

In their 2012 book Why Nations Fail, for example, Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson argue that institutions, by affecting the structure of incentives in society, are the ultimate determinant of economic outcomes. Brown University economist Oded Galor has taken a different approach, emphasizing the complex demographic and technological transformations that brought humanity out of the Malthusian equilibrium and led to longer life expectancy, lower fertility rates, and higher investment in education. Together, these trends boosted women’s participation in the labor force and increased the availability of skills needed to sustain technology adoption and economic growth.

But do these theories match the facts? Over the past four decades, the developing world has indeed undergone many of the radical transformations that Galor described. As the late physician Hans Rosling observed, the gaps between developing and developed countries in life expectancy, infant mortality, fertility, education, university enrollment, female labor-force participation, and urbanization have all narrowed sharply. Reasoning à la Acemoglu and Robinson, developing countries’ institutions could not be all that bad if they were able to deliver progress on so many fronts. In Galor’s framework, progress on all these fronts should explain why developing countries caught up so much with the developed world in terms of income.

Except that they did not: the median country is no closer to US income levels than it was four decades ago. How is it possible that the narrowing gaps in education, health, urbanization, and female empowerment failed to narrow the income gap as well? Why hasn’t progress in the supposed deeper determinants delivered the goods?

To make sense of this puzzling outcome, economists invoke a widening technological gap. More than an explanation, this is a mathematical necessity: if more inputs do not generate more output, something must be making inputs less effective.

To explain this unexpected outcome, it is useful to note that the few countries that did manage to catch up share two distinctive features: their exports grew much faster than their GDP, and they diversified their exports by shifting toward more complex goods.

To achieve this feat, these successful countries must have adopted and adapted better technologies, adjusted the provision of public goods and their institutions to support emerging industries, and reduced inefficiencies and costs by increasing productivity and training workers. In that process, they may have fixed a bunch of other problems.

A ChatGPT-inspired development strategy would focus on a simple goal: to improve the competitiveness, diversity, and complexity of exports. Figuring out how to do this would force policymakers to learn how to do important things, just like predicting the next word enabled ChatGPT to learn context, grammar, syntax, and style.

Like early AI programmers who were sidetracked by linguists and their convoluted theories, policymakers have been distracted by too many objectives, such as the 17 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. But applying the ChatGPT approach to economic development could simplify things: just as the language model tries to predict only the next word, policymakers could try to focus on facilitating the next export, as successful countries seem to have done. While this may seem like a small step, it could lead to surprisingly significant results.

 

Project Syndicate