Israeli strikes pound Lebanon, Hezbollah strikes back

The Israeli military pounded Beirut's southern suburbs with airstrikes on Tuesday, mounting one of its heaviest daytime attacks yet on the Hezbollah-controlled area, and struck the middle of the country where more than 20 people were killed.

Smoke billowed over Beirut as around a dozen strikes hit the southern suburbs starting in midmorning. After posting warnings to civilians on social media, the Israeli military said it struck Hezbollah targets in Beirut's Dahiyeh area and later said it dismantled most of the group's weapons and missile facilities.

Israel said it had taken steps to reduce harm to civilians and repeated its standing accusation that Hezbollah deliberately embeds itself into civilian areas to use residents as human shields, a charge Hezbollah rejects.

In northern Israel, two people were killed in the city of Nahariya when a residential building was struck, Israeli police said. Hezbollah later claimed responsibility for a drone attack that it said was aimed at a military base east of Nahariya.

Israelis were forced to take shelter from drone attacks across the north, the military said. One hit the yard of a kindergarten in a Haifa suburb, where the children had been rushed into a shelter, rescue workers said. None were hurt.

In Mount Lebanon province in the middle of Lebanon, Israeli strikes killed eight people in the village of Baalchmay southeast of Beirut and 15 people in Joun village in the Chouf district, Lebanon's health ministry said.

In the south, five people were killed in an Israeli strike on Tefahta, two in a raid on Nabatieh and one in the coastal city of Tyre. Another person was killed in a strike in Hermel in the northeast, the ministry said.

Beirut residents have largely fled the southern suburbs since Israel began bombing there in September. Footage of one strike shared on social media showed two missiles slamming into a building of around 10 stories, demolishing it and sending up clouds of debris.

Ignited by the Gaza war, the conflict between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah had been rumbling on for nearly a year before Israel went on the offensive in September, pounding Lebanon with airstrikes and sending troops into the south.

Israel has dealt Hezbollah heavy blows, killing many of its leaders, including Hassan Nasrallah, flattening large areas of the southern suburbs, destroying border villages in the south and striking more widely across Lebanon.

Israeli military chief Herzi Halevi, visiting troops in southern Lebanon on Tuesday, said Israeli forces were "operating very strongly" in the country.

Since hostilities erupted a year ago, Israeli attacks have killed at least 3,287 people in Lebanon, the majority in the last seven weeks, according to the Lebanese health ministry. Its figures do not distinguish between civilians and combatants.

Hezbollah attacks have killed about 100 civilians and soldiers in northern Israel, the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, and southern Lebanon over the last year, according to Israel. Hezbollah late on Tuesday said its forces had killed more than 100 Israeli soldiers since Oct. 1.

In a statement, Hezbollah said that since that date it had forced an Israeli retreat from several towns in southern Lebanon, without naming them, and promised more strikes against Israeli military targets. Israel's military said that Hezbollah fired 55 projectiles into Israel on Tuesday.

WAR GOALS

The United States has sought to broker a ceasefire in Lebanon, and the outgoing administration of Democratic President Joe Biden hasn't given up hope of reaching a deal in its final months.

White House envoy Amos Hochstein told reporters that he thinks "there is a shot" at a truce in Lebanon soon, Axios reported on Tuesday, a contrast to peace efforts in Gaza where Qatar has suspended its mediation.

Similarly, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saarsaid on Monday there had been "a certain progress" in ceasefire talks for Lebanon.

But Israel's new Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Monday there would be no ceasefire in Lebanon until Israel achieves its goals there, including disarming Hezbollah and returning evacuated Israelis to their homes in northern Israel.

Republican U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on Tuesday chose former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, a staunchly pro-Israel conservative, to be ambassador to Israel.

Potentially signaling that the U.S. under Trump will reduce pressure on Israel to restrain its warfare, Huckabee has opposed calls for a ceasefire in Gaza, and Saar on Tuesday praised his nomination.

The Lebanese government, which includes Hezbollah, has repeatedly called for a ceasefire based on the full implementation of a U.N. Resolution that ended a war between the group and Israel in 2006.

Reuters

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

North Korea ratifies mutual defence treaty with Russia

North Korea has ratified a mutual defence treaty with Russia signed by the two countries' leaders in June, which calls for each side to come to the other's aid in case of an armed attack, state media KCNA said on Tuesday.

The report came amid international criticismover increasing military cooperation between the two countries, with North Korea having sent tens of thousands of troops to Russia to support its war against Ukraine.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed a decree to ratify the pact on Monday, KCNA said, adding it takes effect when both sides exchange the ratification instruments.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has also signed the treaty into law, which stipulates that the two countries should "immediately provide military and other assistance using all available means" if either side is in a state of war.

Kim clinched the accord with Putin at a summitin June, touting it as a step to elevate bilateral ties to something akin to an "alliance".

Seoul, Washington and Kyiv have said there are more than 10,000 North Korean soldiers in Russia, and U.S. officials and Ukraine's defence minister said some of them have engaged in combat in Kursk, near the Ukraine border.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said last week that North Korean troops had suffered casualties in combat with his country's forces, and the first battles between them "open a new page in instability in the world."

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Five Ukrainian tanks destroyed in Kursk Region – Russian MOD

The Russian military has destroyed five Ukrainian tanks in Russia’s Kursk Region over the past 24 hours, the Defense Ministry in Moscow reported on Tuesday.

During the same period, Kiev has lost more than 300 troops, four infantry fighting vehicles, four artillery pieces, a counter-battery radar station, and other hardware, the ministry added.

Russian forces have been advancing in the areas of the settlements of Daryino, Leonidovo, Malaya Loknya, Nikolaevo-Daryino, and Novoivanovka. Seven Ukrainian counterattacks have also been repelled, according to a statement from the ministry.

Russian aviation and artillery reportedly struck Ukrainian troops in more than two dozen locations across Kursk Region. Air and missile strikes were also carried out against military concentrations in Ukraine’s Sumy Region, which borders Russia, the ministry added.

Kiev’s total losses in just over three months since the launch of its incursion in Kursk Region have reached over 31,700 servicemen, 200 tanks, 131 infantry fighting vehicles, 110 armored personnel carriers and hundreds of pieces of various other equipment, including 11 US-supplied HIMARS multiple rocket launchers, the Russian military stated.

Ukrainian troops invaded Kursk Region on August 6, in the largest attack on internationally recognized Russian territory since the escalation of hostilities between Moscow and Kiev in February 2022. The area under Ukrainian control has been steadily shrinking in recent weeks, but the incursion force is still present in some parts of the region.

On Sunday, Spanish newspaper El Pais reported that Kiev prioritizes holding territories in Kursk Region over defending other parts of the front line where the Russian military has been advancing since the start of the year.

According to the paper, Ukraine currently has two of its “best regiments”operating on Russian territory, which are outfitted with the best available equipment, including German-made Leopard and American-made Abrams tanks.

Ukrainian soldiers told El Pais that troops fighting in Kursk Region rotate every ten days, while their counterparts in Donbass are replaced on average only every 25 days.

Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin described Ukrainian losses in Kursk Region as “colossal.” He suggested that the whole operation by Kiev made little military sense and was dictated by purely “political considerations” imposed on the Ukrainians by their foreign backers.

“They were ordered – from overseas – to hold on at any cost, at least until the US election [on November 5], to show that all the efforts of the Democratic administration to support Ukraine were not in vain,” according to the Russian leader.

Reuters/RT

Former Osun State Governor Rauf Aregbesola has issued a stark warning about the worsening socio-economic and political crisis in Nigeria, suggesting that if left unchecked, the country could be on the brink of revolution. Speaking at a national dialogue in Abuja on Monday, Aregbesola expressed grave concern over what he described as “increasing inequality, widespread hunger, insecurity, and the erosion of citizens’ rights,” all of which he believes could fuel widespread unrest.

A former ally of President Bola Tinubu, Aregbesola’s remarks came at a critical time as the nation grapples with escalating poverty, a deepening economic recession, and rising insecurity. Millions of Nigerians are enduring crippling poverty, with food prices soaring, basic goods becoming unaffordable, and violent crime spiraling out of control. Aregbesola pointed out that the growing gap between the nation’s wealthiest elite and the vast majority of struggling citizens was a ticking time bomb.

The ex-governor’s warning is especially poignant given the government’s ongoing crackdown on protests and dissent, particularly against the backdrop of the recent arrest and trial of young Nigerians involved in protests against economic hardship. Aregbesola’s call for a radical shift in governance highlights the growing frustration among Nigerians with a system they feel no longer serves their interests.

“We are seeing worsening economic conditions, where fewer and fewer people are thriving while the majority are sinking deeper into poverty. When I was growing up, wealth was not as concentrated in the hands of a tiny elite as it is today,” Aregbesola said, adding that the current trajectory of the nation—marked by a lack of basic rights and an ever-expanding underclass—may leave many with no choice but to resort to revolt.

Aregbesola, who served as Minister of Interior under the Buhari administration, noted that a key responsibility of government is the welfare and security of its citizens, and lamented that Nigeria’s current leadership has failed on both counts. “A society that cannot guarantee the safety and well-being of its people is a society on the brink of collapse. And once these basic rights are denied, people will resist, even if it leads to revolution,” he warned.

Rising Discontent and the Call for a Parliamentary System

In a broader context, Aregbesola also advocated for a transition to a parliamentary system of government, arguing that Nigeria’s current presidential system, under which power is concentrated in the hands of a single individual, is ill-suited to the country’s size and complexity. “It is unrealistic for one person to govern over 220 million Nigerians without checks and balances,” he said, noting that a parliamentary system would foster a more inclusive and accountable form of governance.

His remarks reflect a growing disillusionment with Nigeria’s presidential system, which critics argue has allowed for authoritarianism and weakened democratic institutions. Aregbesola likened the centralization of power under Nigerian presidents to a form of “modern colonialism,” pointing out the dictatorial tendencies that have characterized Nigerian leadership. “If we continue to believe that one person has the capacity to rule this country alone, we are kidding ourselves. It’s time for a change,” he insisted.

The proposed shift to a parliamentary system, backed by a bill currently before the National Assembly, aims to decentralize power and create a more cooperative form of governance. Aregbesola, who introduced a parliamentary system at the local government level in Osun during his tenure, believes such a system would be better suited to Nigeria’s diverse and populous society.

A Nation on the Edge: The Growing Threat of Revolution

Aregbesola’s warning about the potential for a revolution is echoed by many Nigerians who feel abandoned by a government that seems increasingly out of touch with the reality on the ground. The country is facing its worst economic crisis in decades, with unemployment rates soaring, inflation pushing basic goods out of reach for millions, and insecurity leaving citizens fearful for their lives and livelihoods. The hunger and deprivation felt by ordinary Nigerians have created a volatile environment where protests and uprisings are increasingly seen as viable options for change.

The recent arrest of protesters and the government’s heavy-handed response to dissent underscore the growing tension between the state and the people. Amid increasing calls for a better deal for Nigeria’s citizens, many worry that the government’s inability to address these issues will lead to widespread instability and unrest.

Aregbesola’s remarks are a stark reminder of the fragile state of Nigeria’s democracy. With a growing sense of disenfranchisement among the population, the potential for revolution—driven by the deepening crises of hunger, inequality, and insecurity—has never seemed more likely.

The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) says unsold goods in the manufacturing sector rose to N1.24 trillion in the first half (H1) of 2024.

In the association’s first-half economic report, Francis Meshioye, president of MAN, said the unsold products rose by 357.57 percent year-on-year.

Meshioye attributed the significant rise in unsold inventory to a drop in consumer purchasing power, driven by rising inflation, the removal of subsidies, and the devaluation of the naira.

He said the high volume of unsold inventories highlights the challenges consumers are facing, stressing the need for measures to boost demand and enhance the sector’s performance.

“The inventory of unsold finished products in the manufacturing sector surged by 357.57 percent year-on-year, reaching N1.24 trillion in H1 2024,” the MAN president said.

He said capacity utilisation in the manufacturing sector experienced a slight year-on-year decrease, dropping to 56.4 percent in H1 2024 from 56.5 percent in the same period in 2023.

Meshioye, however, reported a 2.8 percent increase compared to H2 2023 — indicating some recovery.

“Real manufacturing output in Nigeria declined by 1.66 per cent year-on-year in H1 2024, falling to N1.34 trillion from N1.36 trillion in H1 2023,” he said.

“In spite of this decline, the sector saw a 9.97 per cent increase compared to H2 2023, driven by a baseline effect.

“In nominal terms, the manufacturing sector’s output in Nigeria increased by 30.38 per cent year-on-year, reaching N5.34 trillion in H1 2024.

“This growth was primarily driven by the sharp rise in domestic prices, as reflected in the Consumer Price Index, which surged to 34.19 per cent in June 2024,” he said.

Meshioye said the manufacturing sector’s local raw material sourcing slightly improved to 56.03 percent in H1 2024, up from 55.4 percent in H1 last year.

He said the modest increase reflects a gradual move towards local sourcing, driven by challenges in accessing foreign exchange.

The MAN president said certain sectors, including non-metallic mineral products and textiles, apparel, and footwear, experienced declines in local sourcing, reflecting the difficulties of moving away from imported raw materials.

‘WEAK NAIRA INCREASED INVESTMENT’

Meshioye also noted that investments in the manufacturing sector continued to grow, reaching N250.13 billion in H1 2024, marking a 29.63 percent year-on-year increase.

He said the increase was mainly driven by the depreciation of the naira, which raised the cost of importing machinery and other necessary assets.

“In real terms, investment spending did not increase, as manufacturers focused on maintaining current production levels rather than expansion due to the challenging economic environment,” the MAN boss said.

“Also, electricity supply to industries showed some improvement in H1 2024, with average daily supply hours increasing to 11.28 hours per day.

“However, the cost of providing alternative power continued to rise, with manufacturers spending N238.31 billion on alternative energy sources in H1 2024, a 7.69 per cent increase from H2 2023.

“The surge in costs was driven by higher prices for diesel, gas, and other energy sources, as well as the need for manufacturers to invest in self-energy generation due to unreliable power supply from the national grid.”

‘H1 2024 MARKED BY SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGES FOR MANUFACTURING SECTOR’

Meshioye said the manufacturing sector’s H1 2024 report highlight an urgent need for the implementation of decisive and coherent economic reforms.

He noted that the reforms are intended to tackle the challenges confronting manufacturers.

According to the MAN president, the reviewed period was marked by significant challenges for Nigeria’s manufacturing sector, such as high operational costs, reduced consumer demand, and increasing inflation.

Although some sectors demonstrated resilience and growth according to Meshioye, he said others faced difficulties with declining production values, increasing inventories, and reduced employment.

He said the report focused on manufacturing indicators such as capacity utilisation, production value, inventory levels, use of local raw materials, investments, and expenditure on alternative energy sources, among others.

Meshioye identified key focus areas as strengthening policy consistency, enhancing the business environment, and promoting economic diversification.

“The success of these reforms will be crucial in reversing the current economic downturn, creating jobs, reducing inflation, and improving the overall welfare of Nigerian citizens,” he said.

“As the country navigates through these turbulent times, the resilience of its policy framework and the effectiveness of its economic management will determine the path forward.”

‘LINGERING IMPACT OF HIGH INTEREST RATES HINDERED GROWTH’

Meshioye said the global economy remained resilient during the period, with major economies managing to avoid a severe downturn and reducing inflation without increasing unemployment.

The MAN president, however, said the lingering impact of high interest rates, debt sustainability challenges, persistent geopolitical tensions, and worsening climate risks continued to hinder growth.

He warned that the factors threatened decades of development gains, particularly for developing countries and small island states.

Also, Meshioye said the economic outlook for many African nations had worsened due to high inflation, rising borrowing costs, ongoing exchange rate pressures, and political instability.

He added that Nigeria’s economy is still grappling with significant challenges that have hindered its growth potential and undermined economic stability.

Meshioye said despite efforts to stabilise the economy, including the aggressive monetary tightening by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the desired results in terms of curbing inflation and promoting growth remained elusive.

The Cable

A United States court has reissued an order for the arrest of Allen Onyema, the founder and CEO of Air Peace Limited, over a $20 million bank fraud case that has been pending against him for five years.

The federal district court for Northern Georgia, Atlanta, renewed the arrest warrant on 9 October, following the addition of more charges to the case against Onyema and his co-defendant – Ejiroghene Eghagha, the airline’s Chief of Administration and Finance.

US authorities filed the superseding indictment on 8 October, alleging new counts of obstruction of justice and conspiracy to obstruct justice.

The two counts added to the pre-existing 36 counts of conspiracy, money laundering, bank fraud, credit application fraud, and identity theft. The superseding indictment brought the counts to 38.

On the day the superseding indictment was filed, Assistant US Attorney Christopher Huber filed for a new arrest warrant after the first one issued against Onyema in 2019.

On the following day, 9 October, a deputy clerk of the court signed and delivered the new arrest warrant to the US Marshal, the American body that carries out the arrest of fugitives.

Previous arrest warrants

It will be recalled that preparatory to the filing of the charges in 2019, Russell Vineyard, a magistrate at the United States District Court for the Northern District of Georgia, issued a corresponding warrant of arrestfor Onyema and Eghagha in Canada.

American prosecutors had sought the warrant to enable Canadian law enforcement authorities to take the suspects into custody if sighted in their jurisdiction.

In another arrest warrant issued on 19 November 2019, Justin Anand, an American magistrate of the same court, ordered the US Marshals Service to take them into custody.

Allegations

In the charges pending since 2019, the US authorities accused Onyema of moving suspicious funds from Nigeria to American bank accounts between 2017 and 2018 with the funds allegedly disguised as being meant to be used to purchase aircraft.

Onyema and his co-defendant, Eghagha, allegedly organised the fraud by applying for export letters of credit for the transfer of funds from a Nigerian bank account to the bank account of Onyema’s Atlanta-Georgia-based firm, Springfield Aviation LLC, between 2016 and 2017.

The defendants, according to US prosecutors, applied for the funds purportedly for the purchase of aircraft by Air Peace from Springfield Aviation.

Both Air Peace, a major Nigerian commercial airline, and the US-based Springfield Aviation, are owned by Onyema.

Prosecutors also said the aircraft referenced in each of the export letters of credit sent to the American banks was never owned or sold by Springfield Aviation.

They said the defendants made false statements and reports, and willfully overvalued property to influence the actions of the American banks.

Eghagha was said to have sent the false documents, including fabricated purchase agreements, bills of sale, and valuation documents, to Ebony Mayfield to sign and submit to the respective banks in support of the letters of credit.

Onyema had engaged Ms Mayfield, who was at various times, a bartender, restaurant waitress, and nightclub dancer, in 2016, to act as a manager of Springfield Aviation, and enter into contracts on the firm’s behalf.

Prosecutors said she “had no connection to the aviation business outside of her role with Springfield Aviation and had no education, training, or licensing in the review and valuation of aircraft, including aircraft components.”

In October 2022, the US District Court sentenced Ms Mayfield to three years’ probation for her roles in helping to facilitate the alleged fraud.

Prosecutors continue to allege that Onyema founded and used Springfield Aviation “to facilitate large transfers of funds from his Nigerian bank accounts to the United States.”

Onyema allegedly moved about $15 million from Springfield Aviation’s account with a Wells Fargo Bank branch in Atlanta, Georgia, to his personal savings account with the same bank in 27 transactions in 2017.

Each of the 27 transactions stands alone as a charge of money laundering.

In May 2019, upon discovering that he was under investigation in the Northern District of Georgia for bank fraud, Onyema and Eghagha allegedly directed the Springfield Aviation manager, Ms Mayfield, to sign a key business contract, but also specifically told her to not date the document.

In October 2019, Onyema allegedly caused his attorneys to present that same contract, now falsely dated as being signed on 5 May 2016 (prior to the bank fraud that began in 2016), to the government in an effort to stop the investigation and unfreeze his bank accounts.

The submission of the alleged false documents forms the basis for the new count of obstruction of justice and one count of conspiracy to obstruct justice in the superseding charges.

Superseding charges

The US government added two counts to the charges in a superseding indictment last month.

Announcing the superseding indictment in a statement , the US Attorney Office, Northern District of Georgia, accused Mr Onyema and his co-defendant of “obstruction of justice for submitting false documents to the government in an effort to end an investigation of him that resulted in earlier charges of bank fraud and money laundering.”

Prosecutors said Onyema submitted false documents to US authorities in 2019 in an effort to stop the investigation and unfreeze his bank accounts regarding the alleged $20 million bank fraud.

Eghagha, the airline’s Chief of Administration and Finance, accused of participating in the alleged obstruction scheme, as well as in the earlier bank fraud counts, is Onyema’s co-defendant in the case.

“After allegedly using his airline company as a cover to commit fraud on the United States’ banking system, Onyema, along with his co-defendant, allegedly committed additional crimes of fraud in a failed attempt to derail the government’s investigation of his conduct,” the statement quoted US Attorney Ryan K. Buchanan.

Also, Assistant Special Agent in Charge Lisa Fontanette, Internal Revenue Service – Criminal Investigation Atlanta Field Office, said, “Allegedly, Onyema and his accomplices fraudulently used the U.S. banking system in an effort to hide the source of their ill-gotten money.”

Denial

Air Peace and Onyema’s lawyers have consistently maintained his innocence.

Reacting to the filing of the superseding indictment last month, Air Peace noted in a statement that “both Onyema and Eghagha remain innocent and these are mere allegations, and the case is still in court.”

It added that: “Our legal team is fully engaged with the matter and is working tirelessly to ensure that justice prevails. We remain confident that, through due process, the truth will be revealed, and our CEO and co-defendant will be exonerated.”

The airline argued that Mr Onyema and his legal team have consistently cooperated with authorities throughout the legal process and that Air Peace continues to operate without disruption, upholding its commitment to delivering top-notch services to its valued customers.

“We want to reassure the public that these legal proceedings will not impact the safety, reliability, or day-to-day operations of Air Peace. The dedication and focus of our staff remain steadfast as we continue to provide you with the best aviation experience in Nigeria and beyond,” the airline said

PT

Israel sees progress in Lebanon ceasefire talks, says Russia can help

Israel said on Monday there was progress in talks about a Lebanon ceasefire and indicated Russia could play a part by stopping Hezbollah rearming via Syria, although the Iran-backed group said it had not received any new truce proposals.

Pummelled by Israel's offensive, Hezbollah said political contacts were under way involving its backers in Tehran, Washington and Moscow, while also saying it had enough weapons for a "long war" and keeping up rocket fire into Israel.

Israel's foreign minister, Gideon Saar, said its war against Hezbollah was not yet over. The main challenge facing any ceasefire deal would be enforcement, he said, though there was "a certain progress" in talks.

After previous rounds of fruitless, U.S.-led diplomacy to secure a Lebanon truce, the comments indicate renewed focus as President Joe Bidenprepares to leave office in January, with Donald Trump elected to replace him.

Hopes of a Gaza truce have meanwhile suffered a setback, with Qatarsuspending its mediation role.

Ignited by the Gaza war, the conflict at the Lebanese-Israeli border had been rumbling for a year before Israel went on the offensive in September, pounding wide areas of Lebanon with airstrikes and sending troops into the south.

Saar, addressing a Jerusalem press conference, said Israel was working with the United States on a ceasefire. Israel wants Hezbollah to withdraw north of the Litani River - some 20 miles (30 km) from the border - and to be unable to rearm, he said.

Saar said a basic principle for any agreement had to be that Hezbollah would not be able to bring in weapons from Syria.

"And the Russians are, as you know, present in Syria. And if they are in agreement with this principle, I think they can contribute effectively to this objective."

ISRAEL STICKS TO ITS WAR GOALS IN LEBANON

Israel's new defence minister, Israel Katz, meeting for the first time with his general staff, said there would be no ceasefire in Lebanon until Israel achieves its goals.

"Israel will not agree to any arrangement that does not guarantee Israel's right to enforce and prevent terrorism on its own, and meet the goals of the war in Lebanon - disarming Hezbollah and its withdrawal beyond the Litani River and returning the residents of the north safely to their homes."

Russia deployed forces into Syria nearly a decade ago to support President Bashar al-Assad in the civil war there. Hezbollah also sent fighters to help Assad, and carved out influence alongside other Iran-backed groups.

Syria is widely seen as a major conduit for Iran to supply weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Israel has struck targets in Syria regularly during the conflict.

An Israeli airstrike temporarily cut Syria's main Homs-Damascus highway on Monday, Syrian media reported.

In Lebanon, relatives held funerals for 20 people killed in a strike on the town of Deir Qanoun-Ras al-Ain, including seven medics from rescue groups affiliated with Hezbollah and its Shi'ite ally Amal.

At least 14 people were killed and 15 others injured in an Israeli airstrike on the northern Lebanese town of Ain Yaaqoub on Monday, according to the town's mayor.

The town was the northernmost point in Lebanon hit by Israeli forces since hostilities began in October 2023. Israel hit a building where 30 people were residing, including Syrian refugees, Mayor Majed Drbes said, adding that some people were still trapped under the rubble.

The Israeli military said more than 150 rockets had been fired from Lebanon into Israel. Some set fire to parked cars and a building in a Haifa suburb. Three people suffered moderate and light wounds, the national ambulance service said.

CONTACTS WITH U.S. GROW AS TRUMP PREPARES TO TAKE OFFICE

In Beirut, Hezbollah official Mohammad Afif linked intensified political contacts to the looming change of U.S. leadership. "There is a great movement between Washington and Moscow and Tehran and a number of capitals," he said.

"We hear a lot of talk, but so far, according to my information, nothing official has reached Lebanon or us in this regard," he told a press conference. The contacts were "in the phase of testing the waters and presenting initial ideas".

Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermerwas due to meet U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken later on Monday in Washington, the State Department said.

Yedioth Ahronoth, Israel's best-selling newspaper, reported on Monday that Israel and Lebanon had exchanged drafts through U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein, signalling progress in efforts to reach a final agreement.

The Lebanese government, which includes Hezbollah, has repeatedly called for a ceasefire based on the full implementation of a U.N. Resolution that ended a war between the group and Israel in 2006.

The resolution calls for the area south of the Litani to be free of all weapons other than those of the Lebanese state. Lebanon and Israel have accused each other of violating the resolution.

Israel's offensive has driven more than 1 million people from their homes in Lebanon in the last seven weeks. Since hostilities erupted a year ago, Israeli attacks on Lebanon have killed 3,243 people and injured 14,134, the Lebanese health ministry said. Its figures do not distinguish between civilians and combatants.

Hezbollah attacks have killed roughly 100 civilians and soldiers in northern Israel, the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, and southern Lebanon over the last year.

Reuters

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine battles to shape 'starting positions' for any war talks after Trump return

As Donald Trump's election win brings the prospect of talks to end Russia's war in Ukraine closer, Kyiv is battling to put itself in the strongest position for any negotiations, including by securing more arms and holding out on the battlefield.

A senior Ukrainian official said the next four to five months would be pivotal, signalling how Trump's return to the White House is focusing minds in Kyiv on a possible end game in the war. Trump, who will be sworn in as U.S. president on Jan. 20, has said he will end the war quickly but has not said how.

"This winter is a critical point ... I hope the war is drawing to an end. Right now we will define the positions for both sides on negotiations, the starting positions," the official told Reuters, requesting anonymity to discuss sensitive security issues.

Officials are waiting to see who Trump picks for his top security and defence jobs for clues on how he will shape Ukraine policy. He has ruled out ex-secretary of state Mike Pompeo, seen in Kyiv as pro-Ukrainian.

Russia is advancing at its fastest rate since 2022 despite taking heavy losses, and Ukraine said last week it had clashed with some of an estimated 11,000 North Korean troops deployed to Russia's Kursk region.

Stretched by manpower shortages, Ukrainian forces have lost some of the ground they captured in an August incursion into Kursk that President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said could serve as a bargaining chip.

Ukraine's hobbled energy system is keeping the lights on for now as winter sets in, but the threat of another big Russian attack on the grid remains.

Drones attack Kyiv almost nightly although Russia may not want to alienate the incoming Trump team by destroying the system.

After holding what he said was an "excellent" phone call with Trump late on Wednesday, Zelenskiy said the next day that he was convinced a rapid end to the war would mean Kyiv accepting big concessions.

"If it's just fast, it means losses for Ukraine. I just don't yet understand how this could be in any other way. Maybe we do not know something, do not see," Zelenskiy said.

He also criticised talk of a ceasefire without Ukraine first receiving robust security guarantees that would prevent Russia launching an even bigger offensive later on.

"It's a very scary challenge for our citizens: first a ceasefire, then we'll see. Who are you? Are your children dying?" Zelenskiy said in comments apparently aimed at Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who had proposed a ceasefire.

BLEAK MOOD

The Kyiv official said it felt "less likely" after Trump's victory that there would be a NATO invitation for Ukraine and acknowledged there was a risk Trump would scale back aid.

"I hope the Biden administration will try to avoid this risk by accelerating the speed of (its) help," the official said.

The Kremlin said on Friday that President Vladimir Putin was ready to discuss Ukraine with Trump, but that this did not mean Moscow's war demands had changed.

Putin set out his terms for an end to the war in June: Ukraine would have to drop its NATO ambitions and withdraw its troops from all of the territory of four regions claimed by Russia, something Kyiv sees as akin to capitulation.

Ukraine's public is sceptical Russia is interested in talks, but its central demand if they happen is for Ukraine to receive proper security guarantees, said Anton Grushetskyi, executive director of the KIIS pollster.

Ukrainians leaned towards wanting Democrat Kamala Harris to win the election, but frustration at the reluctance of outgoing President Joe Biden's administration to increase support meant they were increasingly open to a gamble on Trump, he said.

"People are very disappointed that behind the very strong words of the Biden administration the real steps were much weaker, especially over the last year," he said.

Trying to strengthen his hand in September, Zelenskiy outlined a "victory plan" to Biden, reiterating his request for permission to strike military targets deeper in Russia, receive a NATO invitation and obtain more potent weapons.

The plan, he said, was needed to compel Russia to the negotiating table in good faith. There has been little sign of a breakthrough on any of the plan's five points.

"The mood in Ukraine is pretty bleak. You can see the increasing frustration in Zelenskiy's recent remarks," a senior Kyiv-based diplomatic source said.

The Ukrainian official voiced scepticism that Biden would supply something significant to Ukraine, such as lifting the restriction on long-range strikes.

"Who is Biden now? He lost a lot of credibility. I hope he will be brave enough to do something. But I don't have big hopes. It would be great. We are very grateful for his help. He did a lot, much more than we expected," the official said.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Witnesses describe alleged Ukrainian war crimes in Donbass city

Ukrainian troops were given carte blanche to harass and commit crimes against the Russian-speaking population in the southern Donbass city of Ugledar, a Moscow-backed investigative mission has alleged.

Human rights defender Maksim Grigoriev, who chairs an international body investigating suspected crimes of the Ukrainian government, previewed on Monday a new report which focuses on the events in Ugledar. Russian troops liberated the town in early October, allowing civilian access to its remaining residents.

Witnesses said they had faced mistreatment since the armed coup in Kiev in 2014. One woman explained how she could not receive justice for her son, who was killed in a fight with a Ukrainian volunteer battalion member in 2016.

The woman said her son had been a large, strong man who had been stabbed to death after trying to defend local girls from a group of drunken troops from the Aidar unit. The criminal case was clear-cut and resulted in a conviction, but the sentence allowed the killer to be released on parole, Grigoriev said. The perpetrator reportedly did not see the inside of a prison cell.

The case exemplified the bias against the Russian-speaking population which was facilitated by the government in Kiev, the investigator said. It also helps explain the scale of criminality which Ugledar residents have endured in recent years amid open hostility between Russia and Ukraine, he added.

Among other things, the Ukrainian military had a strategy of forcing people out of the city by shelling it and claiming that the attacks were coming from the Russian side, Grigoriev said. Some residents said they personally saw such attacks.

“The [town’s] mayor reported in 2022 that there was nobody here, even though there were some 3,000 people left,” one witness said. “They [Ukrainian troops] were riding outside of Ugledar… and firing at it with mortars to incite panic and make people leave as fast as possible.”

Another man said he witnessed a foreign reporter on a guided tour. It came during a lull, so a Ukrainian soldier accompanying the woman gave an order on his radio: “It’s too quiet, make some noise.” Firing started immediately, scaring the journalist and causing her to run for her life, the man recalled.

Ugledar was subjected to “total looting” by the Ukrainians, Grigoriev claimed. Some homes were stripped down, with faucets, electric sockets and even wall tiling taken by marauders, according to witnesses.

Stolen goods were allegedly moved to other places and sold, sometimes marketed as “goods from Donbass” – a euphemism to designate their criminal origin.

Reuters/RT

“A society can be judged by the way it treats its children” – Nelson Mandela, 1913-2013.

Few Nigerians now harbour any hope that this country would produce a Mandela among its present crop of old politicians. And, if the young member of the House of Representatives, from Abia State, exhibiting delirium of power, as well as all the young Ministers, just sacked, represent the next generation of power seekers, then, we might have to wait until those in nursery school grow up.

UNPRECEDENTED DETENTION AND PROSECUTION OF CHILDREN

 “The over-zealous man, doing his duty, will, sooner or later, pay his dues to the Devil.” That observation made in the thirteenth century by a philosopher summarises why President Bola Tinubu found himself engaging in damage control. A lot of irreparable damage has already been done to the images of Nigeria, the Federal Government, Tinubu, the Nigeria Police and the judiciary the minute the pictures of those children slumping in Abuja hit the internet.

Messages and calls came to me from four continents; from lawyers, retired justices and human rights advocates asking, among other questions, if Nigeria has decent people running its government. The world has witnessed all sorts of trials by absolutely atrocious and murderous regimes; we have also had two Kangaroo military trials staged by the Abacha junta. In every case, as Mark Twain, 1835-1910, had remarked, it was always a matter of “Are you going to hang [them] anyhow, and try them afterwards?” The accused persons were never going to have a fair trial; because “power tends to corrupt; and absolute power corrupts absolutely” according to Lord Acton, 1834-1902.

But, the world has never seen so many children in an adult court; charged with, of all things, treason. Abuse of power against the most vulnerable and powerless human beings had never been more on display. All the kids have several things in common. They are all out of school, illiterate, malnourished and in rags. Most of them are probably homeless and would not know where to find their parents. They were on the streets when the protests started; they were not among the organisers. To them, what was going on was probably entertainment helping to break the drab monotony of their lives.

So, they joined the procession to have some fun – as kids in Lagos would spontaneously follow a masquerade passing by; without thinking about it. Interestingly enough, the very poor children were arrested in Abuja, Kaduna, Kano, Gombe, Jos and Katsina. None of them could possibly have a GSM set to call others in the same state; let alone, those in Gombe calling Katsina. So, there could be no collusion or conspiracy. Even those arrested in each state might never have met until that day and that hour.

That brings up a question: who were the security officers who decided that three or four children waving Russian flags, thrust into their hands by adults, constituted a threat to President Tinubu? None of those we saw on television could pronounce the word REVOLUTION even if asked to at gun point. What then is the basis for arrest and detention? Another question: why were they not tried in the states where the crimes were committed?

Why bring all of them to Abuja, far from home, if not to satisfy the sadistic instincts of those who took them there? There is more to be said later about the competence and character of all those responsible for the arrest and detention of the kids for 93 days in the first instance. Apparently, the Inspector General of Police, IGP, approved everything. But, the IGP would not have gone far without a complaisant justice.

MAKING HISTORY THE WRONG WAY

 “It takes years to make a reputation and five minutes to ruin it. If you think about that, you will do things differently” – Warren Buffett, 2022.

For 93 days, the detention of so many children under horrible conditions (it has to be horrible because neither the IGP nor the justice would want to keep his children there) was a best kept secret from the public – until their tormentors decided to stage a judicial charade with the kids as the main actors. Not trained in Nollywood production techniques, the prosecutor and the justice messed up the script. Comedy turned to tragedy when four of the kids slumped; and would have died with cameras from global media recording everything. The whole world witnessed the horrors in living colour. In less than five minutes, the reputations of the police and judiciary were ruined forever.

Irrespective of how long Justice Egwuatu had been on the bench, and how long he remains there, justices from four continents think he had soiled the bench. The bail conditions imposed on the victims of this injustice betrayed the hidden agenda to deny them bail and hold them perpetually in detention. Who can take a look at any of those kids and conclude that they can raise N10,000 bail; not to talk of N10 million? Additionally, can anybody seriously expect any Federal Civil Servant, regardless of grade or level, to risk his/her career by bailing kids who are probably homeless even in their states?

Bail refusal was disingenuously wrapped around bail conditions impossible to meet for all the defendants. Unfortunately for the battered reputation of the Nigerian judiciary, the only person deceived by that subterfuge was the justice. The whole world saw clearly the intention to keep the kids in horrible custody conditions indefinitely. The Nigeria Police, perennially held in contempt, went a notch downwards. Try as he may, the prosecutor could not convince the global court of public opinion, as well as jurists, that he was in the right court, at the right time and prosecuting the right case. How did he expect to interrogate kids who never went to school on treason? He might as well have been prepared to talk to walls. Whoever handed him that case to prosecute must have achieved the intended consequence of ridiculing him. They got more than they bargained for. He has attained notoriety globally. His name will never be erased from the internet for as long as people inhabit this planet.

PRESIDENT TINUBU TO THE RESCUE

“There are times when a leader must must move out ahead of the flock; go off in a new direction; confident that he is leading his people the right way” – Nelson Mandela, 1913-2013, VBQ p 124.

With all the relevant officials of government tied up in their self-imposed judicial problems, while Nigeria’s image was again being dented worldwide, it was left to Tinubu to set us off in a new direction; to restore sanity to the judicial system and to engage in damage control. His intervention was effective and face-saving for all concerned. Only God knows what would have followed otherwise. I grant the political adversaries their right to play down the gesture.

One commentator pointed to the sudden appearance of the British Foreign Affairs Minister in Aso Rock on the day the announcement was made as proof that Tinubu was prodded by the European Community and the Commonwealth nations to act. I have no evidence of that. But, the EU and the rest of the world tried in vain to convince Abacha to release Obasanjo. So, we must give Tinubu the benefit of doubt; that he acted based on his own conviction. There’s reason for this assumption.

“Idealists in politics lack a sense of reality; and a politician must be a realist above all” – Henry Miller, VBQ p 192.

Tinubu is perhaps the first real politician we have had as President. All the other Presidents, from Shagari to Buhari, were imposed by others. Shagari was not a presidential aspirant in 1978. A deadlocked convention forced leaders of the NPN to turn to a non-aspirant. Obasanjo was the candidate of the four Generals – Babangida, Abdulsalami, Danjuma and Aliyu Gusau. He in turn imposed Yar’Adua; who was really not interested on account of ill-health. Jonathan inherited the Presidency without which he could not have won in 2011. Buhari, after three failed attempts, was invited by Tinubu to return to political war. Only Tinubu plotted his journey to Aso Rock on his own and confidently announced EMILOKAN. Everybody, including me, who thought he was joking, has become a believer eventually.

While the IGP, Justice Egwuatu and the Minister of Justice were in a quandary regarding how to proceed, the politician with his uncanny sense of danger moved to diffuse the tension. What the officials failed to observe was obvious to Tinubu. Another day in court with the kids would have triggered the ‘Mother of all Protests’ – which the security forces might find difficult to contain. One group was planning to get three lawyers to represent each of the children and turn the trial into a circus. Tinubu was right to stop it.

Vanguard

Sarah Sabin

As the adage goes, trust takes years to build, seconds to break, and forever to repair.

Today, trust in leaders is incredibly low.

According to a report by HR consultancy DDI, only 46% of leaders report fully trusting their direct manager to do what’s right. Even more troubling, fewer than one in three trust senior leaders within their organization.

The side effects of this lack of trust are sobering. Here are just a few of the ways in which diminished trust impacts teams: 

EMPLOYEES DON’T LISTEN

When employees don’t trust their leaders, they don’t listen to their advice. People don’t do what you want them to do just because you tell them to do it. If people can’t trust your word, quite simply, they’re unlikely to listen to it.

When a leader demonstrates inconsistency between what they say and what they do, their employees can see that. The overarching message is that your word is not trustworthy—or that not doing what you say you will is somehow acceptable.

EMPLOYEES DISENGAGE

An employee engagement initiative won’t work if there is a fundamental lack of trustthat underlies it.

When employees don’t trust their leaders, they check out emotionally and mentally. When employees check out, they’re more likely to quit when a new opportunity arises.

This kind of disengagement often means that employees will do the bare minimum to get by, at best. And at worst, disengaged employees can become toxic and hostile to the company.

EMPLOYEES STOP INNOVATING

When employees don’t trust their leaders, they become unwilling to innovate, speak up, or take calculated risks. 

Trust is a fundamental part of psychological safety, often cited as one of the core dynamics of high-performing teams. Psychological safety is typically defined as the shared belief that teamwork spaces are safe for interpersonal risk-taking. 

When employees don’t trust that their leaders will have their backs—whether they challenge something in the workplace or simply ask for help—they begin to feel unsafe.

If that’s the case, productivity plummets and inefficiency thrives.

MISCOMMUNICATION HAPPENS

If there’s a lack of trust, employees are likely to build up walls to protect themselves. Even if they work well with their own team, they are unlikely to try to collaborate outside of their immediate circle.

This has a negative impact on inter-team communication, which can increase the likelihood of mistakes. As the quality of work drops or things are done incorrectly, frustration grows and can even lead to conflict.

TURNING THINGS AROUND

Fortunately, there are steps leaders can take to restore trust. First, it’s crucial to be self-aware and demonstrate to your team that you are trustworthy. Model positive behaviors to employees and stick to your word. Ultimately, your coworkers see what you do, not what you say you do. Walking the walk can show your colleagues that you can be trusted. 

Second, start to look at where, exactly, the trust might be broken. When trust is boiled down to a core framework, rather than a vague concept, you can tactically look at which element is missing to start repairing trust.

There are four elements that comprise trust: competence, reliability, sincerity, and care. Doing an audit in each of these four areas and seeing where you might be falling short is a start. Then, you can set some action steps you can take to improve. 

Fast Company

Nigeria’s fiscal deficit continues to swell, with recent figures showing a budget deficit of 7.6% of GDP as of August 2024, outpacing the approved 3.8% target for the year.

This was revealed in the personal statements of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members, who voiced concern over the growing gap between revenue generation and spending.

At the start of 2024, the National Assembly approved a budget of N28.7 trillion with a revenue target of N19.5 trillion, leaving a budget deficit forecast of N9.1 trillion equivalent to about 3.8% of GDP.

However, the deficit has surged well beyond projections, with a supplementary budget of N6.2 trillion proposed later in the year, compounding the fiscal strain.

What they are saying 

According to MPC member Aloysius Uche Ordu, Nigeria’s revenue collection significantly underperformed, reaching only 37.9% of the year’s target in the first half of 2024.

• This shortfall was attributed largely to deficits in the Federation Accounts Allocation Committee (FAAC) receipts, which hindered the federal government’s ability to meet its financial obligations.
• Despite a reported 33.31% improvement in retained revenue from January to June compared to the same period in 2023, overall revenue still fell 62.1% short of its target, a gap that highlights the country’s fiscal challenges.

MPC member Lamido Yuguda also highlighted the consequences of Nigeria’s low revenue base, stressing that it underpins the weak fiscal performance in the first half of the year.

• Provisional numbers indicate that the fiscal deficit already was 91.94% of the full-year target as of June, raising questions about how the federal government would finance the remaining budgeted expenditure without further widening the deficit.

Aloysius Uche Ordu emphasized that Nigeria’s spending priorities leaned heavily toward recurrent expenditures, driven primarily by debt servicing costs.

• Meanwhile, capital expenditure, a critical area for economic growth and development, continued to lag.
• The excess spending on recurrent needs has been compounded by a reluctance to reprioritize resources in favour of capital projects that could drive longer-term economic improvements.

CBN MPC member Muhammad Sani Abdullahi reiterated the importance of a proactive monetary policy in countering the fiscal deficit’s potential repercussions, especially as discussions on implementing a new minimum wage gain traction.

• He noted that while the deficit currently hovers at 7.6% of GDP, efforts to bolster revenue generation and trim government spending could gradually stabilize Nigeria’s fiscal outlook.
• A narrowing deficit, Abdullahi stressed, would support macroeconomic stability and relieve some of the pressures currently weighing on the economy.

While members of the MPC acknowledged that the fiscal authority has shown restraint by not resorting to the Central Bank’s Ways & Means financing, concerns remain over how long the government can sustain this stance amid revenue shortfalls and mounting obligations.

The committee noted that heavy reliance on FAAC distributions affects liquidity levels within the banking sector, subsequently impacting the naira exchange rate.

The external sector faring better 

In contrast to Nigeria’s worsening fiscal situation, developments in the external sector offered a glimmer of optimism.

• A decline in import bills, attributed to the CBN’s tight monetary stance, resulted in a balance of payments surplus of $2.47 billion for the period.
• External reserves climbed to $37.44 billion as of September 2024, offering over seven months of import cover.
• By November, reserves had grown further to $40 billion, a milestone that signals resilience in Nigeria’s foreign exchange holdings amid domestic fiscal strain.
• The naira also recorded a slight appreciation, bolstered by improved reserves and reduced import demand.

Implications for policy and market stability 

The fiscal challenges Nigeria faces highlight a structural issue in the country’s financial framework, primarily driven by revenue volatility and expenditure imbalances.

• While external reserves and the balance of payments position provide a buffer, the domestic fiscal environment remains precarious.
• The MPC’s ongoing commitment to maintaining a tight monetary policy has helped curb import demand and limit external shocks to some extent.
• However, sustained fiscal deficits could undermine these efforts if the federal government fails to enhance revenue generation and exercise spending discipline.

Nairametrics