It was happenstance I least expected that Monday morning of 1999. I had dressed up to go to work as Editor of Nigerian  Tribune from my new home on the outskirts of Ibadan, the Oyo State capital. Moments later, Emmanuel Ayoola, retired Justice of the Supreme Court, drove in, in his yellow 19th century Mercedes Benz car. He alighted to discuss heartily with one of my neighbours. He was obviously in an expansive mood that morning.

I greeted him with reverence he deserved as a man of his stature and standing in legal jurisprudence and society in general.

"Are you the Editor I was told has this imposing building?" he asked with a smile across his lips.

I chuckled, and nodded affirmatively. He shook my hands and started discussing with me as if we had met a decade before. He told me of his undeveloped land behind my house. We bantered a while, then, he drove off

It would take two solid years after that chanced engagement before we would meet again.

However, a divine intervention came in 2003 and shattered the lull in our relationship.

Then President Olusegun Obasanjo had nominated me as a member of the Presidential Action Committee on firearms and light weapons. And Justice Ayoola was named as Chairman of the committee.  His appointment as chairman marked the beginning of a bond that lasted till he passed on August 20, 2024, at the age of 90.

The chemistry  between us became stronger and solidified by the fact the we were both from Ibadan. Besides, I had more time to play with as I had just resigned my appointment with the Nigerian Tribune after 32 years of service to the company and my country. Leaving my job at Nigerian Tribune Newspapers without pension made my future look very bleak.

But God brought Ayoola as my guardian Angel as he used him to reassure me about the future, a future pregnant with opportunities. He took me not just as a member of his great Family but as a close one at that. He made sure I lacked nothing, always meeting me at every point of need throughout the two years that I served on the Committee.

The Committee's assignments took us to all the 36 states of the Federation. It afforded me another opportunity to know every nook and cranny of Nigeria. My first opportunity was with Obafemi Awolowo during the 1983 general elections.

I never travelled alone. I was always riding in the same vehicle with Ayoola. We were so close. As the assignment wound up, I began to have sense of foreboding, thinking that the Committee's assignment would be the last close tie that I would have with Ayoola.

How wrong I was. When he was appointed as Chairman of the Nigerian Human Rights Commission, he beckoned on me again. Though his stay on that beat was brief as Obasanjo appointed him as the second Chairman of Independent Corrupt Practices and other Related Offenses Commission, ICPC.

It was a tug of war between him and the presidency before Ayoola accepted the offer. He had just been offered a juicy and respectable appointment at the World Court in Hague. To discourage Obasanjo from looking his way, on the ICPC offer, he created some obstacles. He forwarded somewhat impossible conditions to the Presidency, including his acceptance of the job at The Hague. He told me that he didn't see how those prayers would be granted.

So, he waited. The response came the third day, and all the prayers were granted. Obasanjo was looking for a transparent and incorruptible person to take over from the late Justice Mustapha Akanbi, the pioneer Chairman of the ICPC, who rejected  a second term in office.

Ayoola became ICPC Chairman in  2005 and turned things around for better in the fight against corruption. The assignment was easy for him as he told me: "I wrote 80 percent of the charter for the establishment of ICPC." He said he did it pro bono because Akanbi was one of his closest friends.

There were many challenges in the task of fighting corruption. He witnessed many battles of how corruption was fighting back from every sector. But was undaunted. Most garrulous elements were firing from the corridors of power from the presidency and in the main the National Assembly, even to the point of blackmail. Ayoola stood like a rock. He was undaunted. He stood his ground. During the period he was on assignments at the Hague with operational seat in Sierra Leone, Ayoola ensured he put in place an iron cast structure at ICPC that made it easier for him to closely monitor activities at the headquarters in Abuja.

At the initial  stage, my position and duties at ICPC were not clearly defined. However, after few months of deliberations, the then Secretary to the Commission, Tukur Ingawa, came up with the designation of Resident Consultant on Media and Event. I became first occupant of that office.

Ayoola pampered me at ICPC to the extent that members of staff nicknamed  me 2ic. I rode in the same official car with him in the morning to the office and back home at the close of work. Our frequent traveling from Abuja to Ibadan was most pleasurable as we gisted and brainstormed on so many issues I could not disclose here. I'm saving that for my next memoirs,God willing.

Ayoola came up with a novel idea of fighting corruption  through preventive mechanism, using it in pari pasu  with arrest and prosecution of alleged  corrupt elements. As an offshoot of preventive mechanism, came the National Anti-Corruption  Volunteer Corps (NAVC) of which I became its grand commander.

Shortly after Obasanjo’s tenure ended, Ayoola made up his mind to quit. It was a tug of war between him and the late President Musa Yar'adua. Obasanjo told Yar'adua that Ayoola insisted on quitting at the end of his tenure so he could face his international assignments at The Hague squarely.

But Yar’Adua, like Obasanjo, refused to let him go. He, therefore, stayed on to complete his first term in office. Sadly, with six months left for him to quit, Yar’Adua passed on and President  Goodluck Jonathan came in.

I followed Ayoola to President Jonathan's office the day he was to submit his letter of resignation, having refused to seek second term. Jonathan refused to accept the letter, telling Ayoola that he had no one in mind to succeed him. So, Jonathan appealed to him to stay on. He gave Ayoola one week to go and sleep over it. I too chipped in, asking Baba Ayoola to reconsider his decision.   

But Baba appeared to have made up his mind. He told me: "Folu, it is better to quit the stage when the ovation is loudest. I have worked with three Presidents within five years and I have been able to convince myself that this is the time to go. Out there, there are more opportunities to render service to humanity and to serve God."

Indeed, he served God to the end. He was a committed and devout Christian. He authored a book of prayer which he distributed to many faithful and non-Christians free of charge. Myself and Godwin Adama are one of his many disciples. During his chairmanship at the ICPC, it was a daily ritual to pray before leaving his residence and another one as we stepped into his office. At the end of day at work, we prayed.

Ayoola was a workaholic. His daily schedule at work was to attend to various meetings and delegate officers to treat case files. Getting home, he would take his late lunch at 5 p.m. and thereafter retire to have a late siesta. He would wake up at 9 p.m. to take his late dinner and then move to his well stocked study room to work on case files he daily brought home. He would work till 4 a.m., leaving a little time for short snap, after which he would wake up to have his devotion, have his bath, dress up and have his breakfast.  He would wait for me and Adama to join him at breakfast.  It was our daily routine to plan for the day--a caucus meeting- for strategies, and chart new ideas in the fight against corruption. Thereafter, we would move in a convoy to the office.

Ayoola was an extraordinary and very humane person. No one that I knew that came across him that did not gain one thing or the other from him. He ensured that all drivers and house helps were house owners. He gave out personal cars to the needy. He just loved to give. As old as I was, and being one of  his confidants, each time I was leaving, Baba would fish out his cheque book to give me something to take care of my emergency needs. Even when I did not need it, he would say: "Never reject a gift however small  from an elderly friend.  Such gift is from his heart to show his fondness for you."

Baba Ayoola hated liars and lazy people. The other side I noticed of  him was his short temperament.  But his anger never linger. He might get angry with you now, the next moment, he would be welcoming you with a broad smile. He was such a kind-hearted man. As the remains of this highly intelligent and quintessential jurist will be laid to rest on 22 November 2024 in Ibadan Oyo State, I am confident that his soul is resting peacefully with the Lord. May his soul continue to find eternal rest. Adieu Baba. You came, saw and conquered.

** Folu Olamiti writes from Abuja

By now, you have probably seen Seyi, the president’s son, at presidential meetings and functions where he, ideally, has no business. Remember, his father had to ban him from attending the weekly meetings of the Federal Executive Council, saying his access was “undue.” Undeterred, Seyi still showed up at the swearing-in ceremony of Kudirat Kekere-Ekun as the Chief Justice of Nigeria. While his meddlesomeness has spurred some people to wonder if he has any other job besides being “daddy’s boy,” I have also wondered if he is just another self-unaware member of the Nigerian political class or is intentionally shaming his father.

Since his father got into office last year, Seyi has been doing public charity and ensuring he is seen doing so. Through his associates, he has given out relief items to people involved in a fire disaster in Nasarawa, gifted “palliatives” in Abuja, and sponsored some medical outreaches. In September, he donated N500m to victims of the Maiduguri flood. Seyi flew to Borno with a team of associate-sympathizers and was received by the state governor, Babagana Zulum. If Nigeria were not a place where even governors have been thoroughly emasculated into subservience, why would the governor set aside his official duties to host the president’s son? The president’s son is unrecognized by the constitution, and Seyi has no business interloping in official affairs.

Anyway, one of the striking parts about Seyi’s visit was not just the money he donated but the speech he gave. It was more thoughtful than the perfunctory one his father had delivered a week earlier when he too visited. Seyi also assured the victims of the flood that he—or his foundation―would be further intervening until they were back on their feet. But in what capacity would he be making this “further” intervention when, as the son of the president, he is neither a private individual nor possesses an official designation? He cannot claim to be a neutral observer who is merely concerned about people’s welfare because the basis on which he does what he does is his filial connection to the president. If he were not the president’s son, Zulum would not have rolled out the carpet to receive him in Borno. Yet, it was not his place to intervene in the Borno crisis. He has no business doing any of these things.

Just last week, Seyi announced that he would once again be saving Nigerians from a bad fate. A foundation he had founded said they would be alleviating the financial hardship Nigerians face while procuring prescribed medication by creating a drug bank that would serve over 10,000 indigent people in 60 hospitals around the country. Just like in Borno, Seyi’s speech, read by a representative, as the scheme launched was compassionate, better than the yawnfest his father reads on national television on the few days in a year he deigns to talk to people. Seyi’s speechwriter managed to throw in all the right phrases about the burden people face accessing life-saving medications. This drug bank, they say, is more than medicine but a “commitment to dignity, to equality, and to the fundamental human right to healthcare.”

Now, that is where the problem lies. It is not enough that the president’s son is taking up initiatives that should be carried out by designated government officials—and in the process spending a humongous amount of money no one knows where he gets it from—but he also subtly disrespects his father in the process. Because there is no way Seyi is talking about the necessity of his drug bank initiative and the “added weight of crushing financial hardship” people confront without indicting his father whose poorly wrought policies have so impoverished the populace that they now need the son’s charity.

A couple of days ago, Seyi also shared bags of rice branded with his visage to some poor women who were then pressed to pray for him for his generosity. You know that it was not those women’s prayers he needed; he just wanted to be seen as a benefactor. Look, if Seyi truly cared about those women, he would not give them rice. He would face his father and tell him to take his paws off their destiny.

One can, of course, argue that Seyi has a prior record of charity, but still doing it especially while his father’s administration is falling apart gives the impression that Seyi is trying too hard to be seen as the successful son of a failing man.

Seyi’s adult life has been tied to his father; everything he has ever achieved professionally was muscled for him through daddy’s totalitarian politics. Given how that same father is diminishing in value and therefore unlikely to hand over valuable political capital to his children as their inheritance, the hope of a dynasty on which politicians’ scions calibrate their future political ambitions is tanking. The son seems to have read the handwriting scribbled everywhere and wants to cut loose to build something apart from daddy. That is why he jumps from Maiduguri to Ibadan, trying to prove he has the compassion—even if not the capacity—his father sorely lacks.

Seyi’s struggle to win the hearts of the folk even as his father is losing them is not exactly a political patricide—it is doubtable if he is even gutsy enough to even dream of attempting that—but impressioneering a better image for himself and generating some social capital, that while can be related to Tinubu, is still not Tinubu. While the savviness is consistent with the character of high-stakes politics, Seyi is not doing anything excitingly different from the jeun sókè jeun sápò political calculations that made his father. One would think a man that young would depart from his father’s politics of orifice that swings back and forth between mouths and agbada pockets, to try something refreshingly new, but Seyi seems wedded to the old and, frankly, boring methods of giving people a mere 0.000000001 percent of what has been stolen from them.

His aspirations might be legitimate enough, but there are challenges ahead. There is a good reason dynasties hardly hold up in this part of the world. First is the issue of the competitors. Far too many people want what Seyi’s father has, but since they know they will not get it, they have settled for subordinate positions. While they may have submitted to Tinubu’s powerful grip after serially losing in the power game against him, they are somewhere seething, raging, and biding their time. When the time comes to bid for the throne, they will easily oust daddy’s boy. They are far more desperate and more practiced in the Game of Thrones, and he is no match for them. Besides, our people too get tired of serving successive generations. When that time comes, they will remind him that they cannot serve his father and still serve him. Whatever they owe their family patriarch must be considered paid off at some point.

Second is that money, the basis on which the public relates to the Tinubus is the flimsiest of all the grounds on which one can build a lasting relationship. Love that flows with the tide of money will ebb when it ebbs. The Tinubu family is one that nobody will love if not for their money. That, of course, includes Mrs Tinubu who needed to hand out huge sums of money just to stimulate interest in her farming and fabric projects. Even now that she has had a Nebuchadnezzar-sized statue carved for her, nobody who has not been pre-paid will bow before her graven image. So, yes, Seyi too can try his desperate best but the love he will get will come with a receipt.

Punch

Tracy Brower

If you’ve ever worked for an inspirational leader, you know what a big deal it is. Inspirational leaders motivate, engage and lift the people around them. And while some people may believe that leadership is inborn, there are also ways you can intentionally develop yourself as an inspirational leader.

Leading well is especially important today because leaders are under increasing pressure—to get results, sustain strategies and to nurture people. At the same time, leaders unfortunately lack confidence in themselves, based on an Accenture survey. And trust in leaders is plummeting globally—with 61% who lack trust, according to a global survey by Edelman.

But even with the pressure and the challenges, leaders can make a positive difference in people’s work experience.

What Is an Inspirational Leader?

Depending on your perspectives, there are plenty of ways to characterize great leadership—from transformational leadership or servant leadership to change leadership, empathetic leadership and more.

• For example, charismatic leadership is based on empathy, listening skills, eye contact, enthusiasm, self-confidence and skillful speaking—and it can be learned, according to research published inCommunication Monographs.
• In another example, transformational leadership is based on qualities such as establishing common goals, providing intellectual stimulation, giving positive feedback—resulting in greater employee wellbeing, according to a study by the American College of Occupational and Environmental Medicine.

Becoming an Inspirational Leader

Great leaders are always growing and responding to context and challenges—so it’s wise to think about how you’re continually becoming an inspirational leader—rather than how you achieve the static result of achieving inspirational leadership.

Here’s where to focus.

1. Believe in the Future

One of the primary elements that motivates people, teams and organizations is a shared sense of purpose. People want to work toward a motivating vision and mission, and they want strong direction from leaders. In fact, organizations with a strong sense of purpose out-perform those without it.

All of this is forward leaning and future focused. In a world that is especially volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous, leaders who can point to the destination ahead are those whom people prefer.

Inspirational leaders clarify the context and the challenges, but then also articulate where the organization is going and why it’s important. They make choices about where the organization will focus (and where it won’t) so people can shape their own efforts toward the unified direction.

And great leaders ensure people have line of sight—so they clearly see how their work affects the work of teammates and those who benefit from the work of the organization as a whole. Inspirational leaders personalize the work, so people can see how they matter uniquely to the bigger picture.

Leadership is fundamentally optimistic and hopeful, because you’re describing a future that you believe matters and galvanizing people toward common goals to accomplish it—believing in the future.

2. Believe in People

Another element of inspirational leadership is believing in the people on the team and providing meaningful work and opportunities for growth and development—reinforcing their belief in themselves.

Inspirational leaders foster a growth mindset in individuals, teams and organizations, ensuring that people know they can always learn more and improve. With a growth mindset, failures or setbacks aren’t indicators of too little capability or smarts. Instead, they are signals of where to work harder, improve or solve problems.

Inspirational leaders ensure they’re tuned into team members and they demonstrate empathy. They support wellbeing at the same time they hold people accountable and let people know how important the people are to the organization’s success. Great leaders provide psychological safety that empowers employees to take appropriate risks and challenge themselves. And then they back people up and provide feedback and coaching.

They support people’s performance with clear expectations, smart processes, tools and technology and well-designed work experiences. And they support team members’ ability to express autonomy, set boundaries and live their lives outside of work as well.

Inspirational leaders ensure people are always learning and leaning into the next opportunity that interests them—with fair pay, promotions and rewards.

3. Believe in the Community

Inspirational leaders also act in a way that builds relationships, connections and trust. They are authentic and easy to read. Their actions are aligned with their words. These leaders are also transparent.

One of the primary ways leaders build trust is by being both present and accessible. In a world where people are distracted and detached, leaders who are fully present with others in the moment engender trust.

In addition, inspirational leaders are predictable. In the face of overwhelm and polarized viewpoints, leaders often become sources of continuity and a centers of gravity—and this provides stability and consistency that people crave.

4. Believe in Yourself

Inspirational leaders also believe in themselves, demonstrating both professional courage and intellectual humility.

These leaders are firm and clear in standing upfor what they believe, their values and the values of the organization. They also stand withpeople who need support. And they know when to stand down as well—when to let go or move on from strategies or tactics that no longer serve them.

Inspirational leaders also demonstrate intellectual humility. They are self-aware and humble, admitting mistakes. In fact, when leaders were more critical of themselves than others, they tended to be rated as better leaders, according to a study published in the Journal of Leadership and Organizational Studies.

Inspirational leaders balance confidence with an openness to others’ perspectives. They know they don’t have all the answers. They step forward when they’re the expert, but they rely on others who also have critical knowledge. They ask questions and stay curious. And they are always learning.

The Importance of Inspirational Leaders

Inspirational leadership is especially important today and you can have a significant positive effect on the people you lead. You’ll never be a perfect leader, but people appreciate effort and progress—and your commitment to learning and improving.

When you motivate people about the future, about their role in it and about the community they’re part of, they’ll be able to bring their best as well.

Forbes

Nigeria is on the verge of a significant tax policy shift as the National Assembly considers a bill proposed by President Bola Tinubu’s administration to increase the Value Added Tax (VAT) from 7.5% to 10% in 2025, with a gradual rise to 15% by 2030. While this move might seem like a necessary fiscal measure to boost government revenue, the timing and the potential impact on the economy raise serious concerns. Amid rising inflation, deepening poverty, and escalating energy costs, increasing VAT at this moment is an ill-advised decision that could further harm the very people it aims to support.

First, the economic backdrop of Nigeria today is dire. Inflation is at record highs, and essential goods and services have become increasingly unaffordable for most Nigerians. The proposed VAT increase will only exacerbate this problem. By nature, VAT is a regressive tax, which means it disproportionately affects lower-income individuals. Whether someone is wealthy or living in poverty, the tax on essential items such as food, medicine, and basic services is the same. For those already struggling to make ends meet, this increase will be devastating, pushing more Nigerians into extreme poverty.

The timing of this proposal could not be worse. Since Tinubu came into office, fuel prices have skyrocketed by over 400%, creating a cascading effect on transportation, goods, and services. Businesses, particularly small and medium enterprises, are buckling under the pressure of soaring energy costs, with many forced to shut down. An increase in VAT would add to their woes, further driving up costs, which would inevitably be passed on to consumers. This will lead to higher prices for goods and services, driving inflation even higher and worsening the cost-of-living crisis.

Moreover, businesses in Nigeria are already struggling with an unfriendly operating environment, where high costs of production and poor infrastructure have stifled growth. A VAT increase would discourage entrepreneurship and innovation, reducing the capacity of businesses to generate employment and contribute to economic recovery. As companies pass on the additional tax burden to consumers, the overall purchasing power of Nigerians will further decline, weakening the economy’s ability to recover from the current downturn.

In addition, the argument for increasing VAT based on boosting government revenues overlooks the critical issue of public trust in government spending. There is a widespread perception that funds generated through taxation are often not spent in ways that directly benefit the populace. Wasteful spending, corruption, and a lack of transparency in the use of public funds have left many Nigerians skeptical about the benefits of paying higher taxes. Increasing VAT would take money out of the hands of struggling citizens and businesses and place it in the coffers of governments at the three tiers that have often failed to provide essential public goods such as healthcare, education, and infrastructure.

Finally, while international bodies such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have recommended raising VAT, their perspective is often based on macroeconomic indicators rather than the lived realities of the Nigerian people. It is important to tailor fiscal policies to the specific context of the country, especially during periods of economic hardship. Raising taxes without addressing the structural inefficiencies and waste in government spending only increases the burden on ordinary Nigerians without providing a corresponding improvement in public services.

In conclusion, increasing VAT from 7.5% to 10% at this time is a misguided policy that risks deepening the economic challenges already faced by millions of Nigerians. Instead of imposing higher taxes, the government should focus on policies that promote economic growth, job creation, and poverty alleviation. A more equitable tax system, higher collection efficiency, combined with greater fiscal responsibility, would be a better approach to navigating Nigeria through this difficult period. The government must prioritize the needs of its citizens over short-term revenue gains if it is to build a sustainable and inclusive economy for now and the future.

Oxfam Nigeria, a non-profit organization, has revealed that 99% of Nigeria’s wealthiest individuals either evade or avoid paying taxes, exacerbating the country’s economic inequality while millions of Nigerians struggle to survive. The findings were presented in two reports titled “Income and Wealth Inequality in Nigeria: Trends and Drivers” and “Taxing the Rich: Fair Tax Monitor,” released on Tuesday. These reports, produced in collaboration with Tax Justice Network Africa and the Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre (CISLAC), cover a decade of data.

Despite being Africa’s fourth-largest economy, Nigeria’s economic growth has disproportionately benefited a small elite, leaving millions in poverty. The Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) and John Bean Technologies Corporation (JBT) confirmed that only 40 of Nigeria’s wealthiest individuals complied with tax regulations, representing a compliance rate of just 0.035%. This suggests that over 99% of the country’s wealthiest citizens evade or avoid paying taxes.

Oxfam reported that Nigeria ranks among the countries with the highest income inequality in sub-Saharan Africa, with a wealth Gini coefficient of 35.1. This places Nigeria 11th out of 16 West African nations, underscoring the widening gap between the rich and the poor. Approximately 133 million Nigerians, or about 70% of the population, are struggling with hunger, with women and girls disproportionately affected, making up 63% of the food-insecure population. Rural areas are also severely underserved, with less than 40% of households having access to electricity, further limiting educational and healthcare access.

Impact on Women and Girls

Oxfam highlighted that women and girls bear a heavier burden of poverty. Women’s literacy rate is 35%, compared to 59.5% for men. Limited access to education, land ownership, and economic opportunities leaves women disproportionately disadvantaged.

The reports suggest that a progressive wealth tax could generate over $7.5 billion annually, enough to double the government’s health budget or reduce out-of-pocket healthcare costs for households by 40%. This additional revenue could ease financial burdens on millions of Nigerians.

Oxfam also pointed out that Nigeria is nearing bankruptcy, with some states like Sokoto experiencing an 87% poverty rate, in stark contrast to Lagos, where only 4.5% live below the poverty line. Nigeria’s rising debt means that a significant portion of the national budget is spent on loan repayments, diverting resources from essential public services.

Call for Progressive Taxation

John Makina, Oxfam’s country director, expressed alarm at the situation, noting that while millions of Nigerians struggle to afford basic necessities, the super-rich continue to grow their wealth without paying fair taxes. He attributed this to complex tax laws and a lack of transparency, which prevent Nigeria from raising the revenue needed to invest in social protections and reduce inequality.

Oxfam recommended several measures to address the widening economic divide. These include adopting progressive taxation, increasing social sector spending to at least 10% of the national budget, and investing in human capital development through education, healthcare, and job creation. Additionally, the organization urged the government to support smallholder farmers, reform agriculture, and collaborate with civil society to promote gender equality and hold officials accountable.

Analysis:

Oxfam’s report underscores the dire consequences of income inequality in Nigeria, highlighting how tax evasion by the country’s wealthiest citizens exacerbates poverty and limits economic development. The findings reveal a systemic failure to enforce tax laws, with the wealthiest few evading their responsibilities while the majority of the population bears the brunt of economic hardship. The report suggests that Nigeria’s economic growth has been concentrated in the hands of a small elite, leaving millions trapped in poverty.

The wealth Gini coefficient of 35.1, along with the high percentage of the population facing hunger, illustrates how economic inequality has deepened in Nigeria. This inequality is further worsened by gender disparities, as women and girls face greater economic and social disadvantages due to lower literacy rates, limited access to land, and fewer opportunities for economic advancement.

The report’s call for a progressive wealth tax highlights a potential solution to Nigeria’s revenue shortfall. A 1% tax on high-net-worth individuals could generate billions of dollars annually, helping fund crucial social programs such as healthcare and education. By adopting progressive taxation, Nigeria could reduce its reliance on external borrowing and use its domestic resources more effectively to tackle poverty and inequality.

Oxfam’s recommendations to support smallholder farmers and reform agricultural policies are also critical, as these sectors provide livelihoods for much of Nigeria’s rural population. Strengthening access to credit, land, and infrastructure for small-scale farmers could help boost agricultural productivity and provide a pathway out of poverty for millions.

However, without strong political will and improved governance, implementing these measures will be challenging. Corruption, complex tax laws, and lack of transparency have long plagued Nigeria’s tax system, preventing the country from raising adequate revenue to address its socio-economic challenges. If these issues are not addressed, Nigeria’s wealth gap will likely continue to grow, further entrenching inequality and economic stagnation.

Nigeria’s inflation rate climbed to 32.70% in September 2024, up from 32.15% in the previous month, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks changes in the prices of goods and services, revealed a 5.98% increase year-on-year, significantly higher than the 26.72% rate recorded in September 2023.

The rise in inflation is largely attributed to higher prices across a range of items in the national goods and services basket compared to August 2024. Month-on-month, inflation edged up to 2.52%, compared to 2.22% in August.

Food Inflation continues to be a major driver, surging to 37.77% year-on-year, a sharp increase from 30.64% in September 2023. The steep rise in food prices was driven by significant price hikes in staples such as guinea corn, rice, maize, beans (classified under bread and cereals), yam, water yam, and cassava (potatoes and tubers). Other items such as coffee, tea, cocoa products (including Lipton and Milo), and cooking oils also saw notable price increases. Month-on-month, food inflation rose to 2.64% in September, compared to 2.37% in August.

Core Inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural and energy prices, surged to 27.43% year-on-year, up from 21.84% in September 2023. The NBS attributed the rise in core inflation to increases in costs for housing rents, intercity transportation, medical services, and other essential services. Month-on-month, core inflation was slightly lower at 2.10% in September, down from 2.27% in August.

Analysis:

The rise in inflation to 32.70% in September 2024 reflects the intensifying pressure on Nigeria’s economy. This persistent inflationary trend, particularly in food prices, signals deepening challenges in supply chain dynamics and agricultural production, compounded by external factors such as global commodity prices and local disruptions.

Food inflation at 37.77% year-on-year is especially concerning, as it directly impacts the most vulnerable populations. The surge in staples like grains, yams, and oils signals difficulties in domestic agricultural production, possibly due to poor harvests, rising input costs, or transportation bottlenecks. This sharp rise also suggests that imported inflation is playing a role, as many of these items are either partially imported or depend on foreign supply chains for inputs like fertilizers.

Core inflation at 27.43% year-on-year highlights broader economic challenges beyond food prices. Rising rents and transportation costs indicate that inflation is being driven by both demand-pull (increased demand for housing and transport) and cost-push (higher production and operational costs) factors. The mention of medical services and consultation fees as inflationary contributors points to a health sector also feeling the strain of rising costs, making essential services less accessible.

Nigeria’s inflation challenge stems from a complex mix of structural issues, including reliance on imports, foreign exchange volatility, and inefficient domestic production. Policies addressing agricultural productivity, transportation infrastructure, and currency stabilization are critical to alleviating these pressures in the medium to long term. However, in the short term, Nigerians are likely to continue facing rising living costs, which could exacerbate socioeconomic tensions.

The naira has been listed as one of the worst-performing currencies in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2024, according to the latest Africa’s Pulsereport by the World Bank. As of August 2024, the naira had depreciated by approximately 43% year-to-date, placing it alongside the Ethiopian birr and South Sudanese pound as the region’s weakest currencies.

Several factors contributed to the naira’s depreciation, including a surge in demand for U.S. dollars in the parallel market, limited inflows of foreign currency, and delays in foreign exchange disbursements by Nigeria’s central bank. These issues have persisted despite reforms in the foreign exchange market, such as the liberalization of the official exchange rate in June 2023.

The World Bank highlighted that demand for dollars by financial institutions, money managers, and non-financial entities has exacerbated the naira’s decline. The lack of sufficient dollar inflows and slow distribution of foreign exchange to currency bureaus have further weakened the currency. While the Nigerian government introduced some market reforms, these efforts have not been enough to stabilize the naira.

The report also pointed out that the naira’s depreciation has contributed to rising domestic prices, particularly for imported goods, which has further worsened inflationary pressures on Nigerian consumers. In contrast, some African currencies that struggled in 2023, such as the Kenyan shilling and South African rand, have shown signs of recovery in 2024. The Kenyan shilling, for example, strengthened by 21% by the end of August 2024, making it one of the best-performing currencies in the region.

Despite a brief 5.69% recovery against the dollar on Monday, October 14, when the exchange rate improved from N1,641.27/$1 to N1,552.92/$1, the overall foreign exchange turnover decreased sharply by 44.27%, from $616.73 million to $343.71 million.

Looking ahead, the World Bank offered a cautious outlook on Nigeria’s economic growth, projecting a 3.3% expansion in 2024, with a slight improvement to 3.6% in 2025–2026. The report noted that inflation, which peaked at 34.2% in June 2024, had started to decelerate, reaching 32.2% in August. However, following the Nigerian government’s removal of fuel subsidies in mid-2023, gasoline prices surged, leading to increased inflationary pressures. By September 2024, gasoline prices had risen an additional 40-45%, which may cause inflation to climb again in the coming months.

Analysis:

The World Bank’s assessment of the naira’s performance paints a grim picture of Nigeria’s currency and broader economic conditions. The naira’s 43% depreciation year-to-date reflects deep-rooted structural issues in the country’s foreign exchange system and economic management. The Nigerian central bank’s inability to ensure adequate dollar inflows and the overwhelming demand for foreign currency in the parallel market highlight the country’s ongoing foreign exchange crisis.

Despite the government’s decision to liberalize the exchange rate in mid-2023, intended to ease pressure on the naira, the impact has been negligible. Dollar shortages and delays in foreign exchange disbursements have meant that financial institutions and non-financial actors alike continue to seek dollars in the black market, driving further depreciation. This situation has resulted in increased import costs, adding to the country’s already sky-high inflation, and making essential goods unaffordable for ordinary Nigerians.

Inflationary pressures have been further exacerbated by the government’s removal of fuel subsidies in 2023. Although the policy was aimed at reducing the fiscal burden of subsidies, it caused a dramatic rise in petrol prices—initially tripling and later increasing by up to 45% in 2024. These price hikes have triggered higher transportation and logistics costs, making everyday goods even more expensive. The resulting inflationary spiral, particularly in the context of stagnant wages, continues to erode the purchasing power of Nigerians.

While the World Bank projects modest GDP growth of 3.3% in 2024, these gains will likely be overshadowed by persistent inflation and currency depreciation, both of which disproportionately impact the poor and vulnerable. The removal of fuel subsidies was a necessary step in improving fiscal stability, but without accompanying policies to cushion the effects on consumers, it has worsened the economic plight of the average Nigerian.

The report also contrasts the naira’s performance with that of other African currencies, like the Kenyan shilling and South African rand, which have shown resilience and recovery. This juxtaposition underscores Nigeria’s failure to implement effective monetary policies that could stabilize the naira and protect its economy from external shocks.

In conclusion, the depreciation of the naira signals a broader economic failure, driven by foreign exchange mismanagement, delayed reforms, and weak fiscal policy. Without significant improvements in foreign exchange regulation, increased dollar inflows, and policies to alleviate inflationary pressures, Nigeria’s economic struggles will persist. For millions of Nigerians, the weakened naira means higher living costs, greater hardship, and fewer opportunities for growth in an already challenging economic environment. The government must take bold, effective steps to stabilize the currency and mitigate the impact of inflation on its people.

Israel's demining near Golan signals wider front against Hezbollah, sources say

In a sign Israel may expand its ground operations against Hezbollah while bolstering its own defences, its troops have cleared landmines and established new barriers on the frontier between the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and a demilitarised strip bordering Syria, security sources and analysts said.

The move suggests Israel may seek to strike Hezbollah for the first time from further east along Lebanon's border, at the same time creating a secure area from which it can freely reconnoitre the armed group and prevent infiltration, the sources said.

While demining activity has been reported, sources who spoke to Reuters - including a Syrian soldier stationed in south Syria, a Lebanese security official and a U.N. peacekeeping official - revealed additional unreported details that showed Israel was moving the fence separating the DMZ towards the Syrian side and digging more fortifications in the area.

Military action involving raids from the Israeli-occupied Golan and possibly from the demilitarised zone that separates it from Syrian territory could widen the conflict pitting Israel against Hezbollah and its ally Hamas that has already drawn in Iran and risks sucking in the U.S.

Israel has been trading fire with Tehran-backed Hezbollah since the group began launching missiles across Lebanon's border in support of Hamas after its deadly attack on southern Israel triggered Israel's military campaign on Gaza.

Now, in addition to Israeli aerial strikes that have caused Hezbollah significant damage in the past month, the group is under Israeli ground assault from the south and faces Israeli naval shelling from the Mediterranean to the west.

By extending its front in the east, Israel could tighten its squeeze on Hezbollah's arms supply routes, some of which cut across Syria, Lebanon's eastern neighbour and an ally of Iran.

Navvar Saban, a conflict analyst at the Istanbul-based Harmoon Center, said the operations in the Golan, a hilly, 1,200 square km (460 square mile) plateau that also overlooks Lebanon and borders Jordan, appeared to be an attempt to "prepare the groundwork" for a broader offensive in Lebanon.

"Everything happening in Syria is to serve Israel's strategy in Lebanon - hitting supply routes, hitting warehouses, hitting people linked to the supply lines to Hezbollah," he said.

Israel's mine removal and engineering works have accelerated in recent weeks, according to a Syrian intelligence officer, a Syrian soldier positioned in southern Syria, and three senior Lebanese security sources who spoke to Reuters for this story.

FORTIFICATIONS

Israeli tanks have at times briefly entered Syrian territory east of the U.N.-monitored buffer zone to lend security support to bulldozers setting up what appeared to be a new security fence in the demilitarized area, according to the soldier and a regional intelligence source.

The sources said the demining had intensified as Israel began ground incursions on Oct. 1 to fight Hezbollah along the mountainous terrain separating northern Israel from southern Lebanon around 20 km (12 miles) to the west.

In the same period, Israel has ramped up strikes on Syria, including its capital and the border with Lebanon, and Russian military units -- stationed in Syria's south in support of Syrian troops there -- have withdrawn from at least one observation post overlooking the demilitarised area, the two Syrian sources and one of the Lebanese sources said.

All of the sources spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss their monitoring of Israel's military operations in the Golan, most of which was seized by Israel from Syria in 1967.

The Syrian soldier stationed in the south said Israel was pushing the fence separating the occupied Golan and the demilitarised zone (DMZ) further out and erecting their own fortifications near Syria "so there would not be any infiltration in the event this front flares up."

The soldier said Israel appeared to be creating "a buffer zone" in the DMZ. A second senior Lebanese security source told Reuters that Israeli troops had dug a new trench near the DMZ in October.

One senior Lebanese security source said the demining operations could allow Israeli troops to "encircle" Hezbollah from the east.

The DMZ has been home for the last five decades to the U.N. Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF), mandated to oversee disengagement of Israeli and Syrian forces after a 1973 war.

A U.N. peacekeeping official in New York said that UNDOF had "recently observed some construction activity being carried out by Israeli military forces in the vicinity of the area of separation," but did not have further details.

RUSSIA LEAVES OVERLOOK POINT

Asked about the demining, the Israeli military said it "does not comment on operational plans" and it "is currently fighting against the terrorist organization Hezbollah in order to allow for the safe return of northern residents to their homes."

UNDOF, Russia, and Syria did not respond to requests for comment by Reuters.

A report to the U.N. Security Council on the activities of UNDOF, dated Sept. 24 and seen by Reuters on Oct. 4, cited violations on both sides of the demilitarized zone.

Russian troops, meanwhile, have left the Tal Hara outpost, the highest point in Syria's southern Daraa governorate and a strategic overlook point, according to the two Syrian sources and one of the Lebanese sources.

The Russians had left because of understandings with the Israelis to prevent a clash, a Syrian military officer said.

Syrian authorities, whose country is part of Iran's 'Axis of Resistance', have sought to remain out of the fray since regional tensions soared after Hamas's Oct. 7 assault last year.

Reuters reported in January that Assad had been discouraged from taking any action in support of Hamas after he received threats from Israel. Hezbollah too had "steered away" from building up any forces in the Syrian-held Golan.

Syria's army has not made additional deployments, the Syrian military intelligence officer told Reuters.

A Syrian army officer said that on Tuesday morning Syrian army commanders ordered Syrian paramilitary groups to pull back from the southern Quneitra area in the Golan within 24 hours.

Fighters from Iraqi armed groups backed by Iran had also been ordered to withdraw from areas in the southern Quneitra countryside after seeing Israeli tanks in the zone, according to two sources from the groups.

The Iraqi fighters were told not to engage the Israeli forces directly, the sources said.

Reuters

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Russia’s Su-25 attack aircraft disrupt rotation of Ukrainian forces in Kursk region

Crews of Russia’s Su-25 ground attack aircraft have thwarted the rotation of Ukrainian forces in borderline areas of the Kursk Region, the Russian Defense Ministry said.

"The strike was carried out by aircraft missiles against reconnaissance targets," the ministry said. "According to intelligence reports, the enemy’s armored hardware and manpower were destroyed."

After the use of aviation weapons, the crews performed an anti-missile maneuver, releasing decoy flares, and returned to their airfield of departure.

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Russia launches drone attack on Kyiv, mayor says

Russia launched a drone attack on Kyiv late on Tuesday, top officials in the Ukrainian capital said.

"Stay in shelters," Mayor Vitali Klitschko wrote on the Telegram messaging app. He said drones were headed towards the large Troieshchyna neighbourhood on the outskirts of Kyiv.

Serhiy Popko, head of Kyiv's military administration said on Telegram that air defence units were engaged in repelling the attack.

There was no immediate information about potential damage or injuries.

Kyiv, its surrounding region and the whole eastern half of Ukraine were under air raid alerts from about 1900 GMT.

Tass/Reuters

Restructuring agitators currently pushing for regionalism, as opposed to the 2014 Confab Resolutions of "States as federating units", are either ignorant of the history of regionalism, driven by prebendalist or internal colonialistic or separatist motives. This will set Nigeria back in the quest for representative democracy for every one of its 371 ethnicities regardless of size, without which the country will continue to be destabilized and unable to act as a nation. Some actually see regionalism as a step towards the fulfilment of their separatist dreams to opt out of Nigeria.

The British used regionalism to put a knife to what held the country together as an indigenous African civilization and ever since then, things permanently fell apart as the center no longer held. To place the Southern Protectorate made up of Original African civilization at a demographic, geographic and political disadvantage, they shaved the top of the core of the Original African civilization, and added it to the Northern Protectorate.

If the colonists had stopped at wrongly adding the upper Original African civilization, Middlebelt, to the Northern region, eventually due to the demographic and political disadvantages, a united Southern Protectorate/region would have fought to get back their civilizational land and peoples from the Northern Protectorate. This would have naturally swayed political power to the indigenous African civilization that are 70% of Nigeria's population, so in April 1939 the colonists further broke the Southern Protectorate into two regions - East and West.

This administrative violence was to promote regional Pan Tribalistic perspectives that broke up the Nigeria Youth Movement and NCNC pushing for independence. Shortly afterwards, the British introduced the 1946 Richards Constitution based on regional governments, which gave birth to prebendalism, a political system that the elites used their cultural identity for economic and political profit from the center for themselves, friends and family. The elites only used their cultural identity as a badge and sense of entitlement, and didn't care about its content as they even fought against the constitutionalization of their traditional institutions, in what was essentially a class war between the neocolonial and traditional elites.

The Prebendalist system was a Paw in the bottle trick used to capture monkeys, whereby a nut is placed in a bottle which the monkey can only remove with its fists clenched around the nut that can't come out of the bottle, and therefore captured. The lure of Prebendalist benefits prevented the Southern elite from uniting on a civilizational level as done throughout the world, and even in the Afroasiatic Northern Protectorate civilization.

Before the advent of Europeans from 1415, the Original African civilization was a continuum of dialects, with common genetic and cultural origins, that spread from Southern Nigeria to Southern Africa. For nearly 100,000 years, before any other race was created, the Original African civilization had slowly evolved from a theocracy based on African Spiritual Sciences, to monarchial dynasties. The monarchs at the core were called Obas in Yoruba/Edo lands and due to slight dialect change Obis in Igboland.

With the 1861 colonization of Lagos, their first colony, the British in order to blur the people’s cultural identity and interrelationships, immediately set out to start a process known as epistemicide, which is the act of denigration and bastardization of traditional knowledge systems that held collective history and philosophy, the main thread that tied the people together as a civilization. They commissioned a freed and indoctrinated slave to break up the continuum of dialects, using a single dialect as a regional standard language and tribe, which created distinct languages that appeared distant and unrelated. For example, Oyo dialect became standard Yoruba while Onitsha dialect became Igbo, despite the fact that they slowly evolved into each other as you go along villages. Using different rules of translation, like Oka becoming Awka, the languages appeared to be unrelated. The new dialect turned standard languages were popularized and institutionalized by making sure that they became the official language in the colonial schools, churches and colonial institutions.

Not only did the new colonial social constructs have their own regions for direct access to the center of the unitary state for Prebendalist benefits, their regions had some minorities that they could also internally colonize. In the Western region, there were the Edo minorities that eventually fought for its own region, while in the East, there were the Niger Deltan minorities which the Igbos could colonize but who eventually fought for their own Deltan/South South States. The alluring nut of regionalism prevented the unity of the indigenous African civilization to challenge the Northern Afro-Arabic civilization and their mutual European colonists.

Post independence, the unwieldy regions of internal colonizers came into conflict, as the Northern region of Afro-Arabic civilizational imperialists, who had been unjustly strengthened with the Middlebelt of Indigenous African ethnicities, attempted to takeover the country by backing the division of the Western region, which was done by jailing its political leadership Obafemi Awolowo and removing the civilizational leader Ooni of Ife as the Governor. The Igbo dominated Eastern region overthrew the Northern Afro-Arabic civilizational leadership in control of the center, and later tried to secede. Seeing how the three major groups were unfairly pulling apart the federation of over 370 ethnicities, the regions were broken down to twelve states.

Nevertheless, the regionally inspired Prebendalist political culture was further ingrained into political consciousness. The initial Yoruba-Igbo-Hausa-Fulani tribal regions of internal colonization were challenged and broken up, as bigger ethnicities of the 370 minorities agitated for their own states. The resultant 36 states were categorized into six regions, with part of the Middlebelt called North Central region, while the core North was divided into Northeast region with indigenous African minorities, and Northwest also with indigenous African minorities. To the South, the Delta minorities were called the South South region, while Yorubas had the Southwest region and Igbos the Southeast region.

The regionalism continued to pit Southern tribal political elites against each other in their struggle for Prebendalist benefits, to the disadvantage of the Original African civilization that became susceptible to divide and rule by the Northern Afro-Arabic civilization.  Since the Afro-Arabic civilization didn't undergo the colonial epistemicide of its civilizational links based on Islam, the Northern Afro-Arabic civilization could unite their North East and North West regions, unlike the three Southern regions that could unite civilizationally for collective aspirations.

The Confab built a rapport between the South and Middlebelt civilization based on their collective aspirations of self determination for every group within a loose federation. Initially Southwest Yorubas pushed for regionalism, regardless of the fact that fellow Yorubas will be trapped in the North Central region, while Igbos wanted regions redrawn to give them access to the coast and realign Igbos in the South South region to the Southeast region. At the negotiating table, the South and Middlebelt ethnicites whose numbers couldn't make up a region and didn't want to return to Wazobia regional hegemony insisted on states as federating units.

Though the individual ethnicities of Deltan and Middlebelt couldn't make up a tribal region, their combined numbers were greater than those of the individual big three, so in order to achieve the two thirds quorum required to change the constitution an agreement was reached. However, as bad habits are hard to kick, the three big groups with their paws in the bottle around the Prebendalist regionalism nut thave regressed back into regionalism, which means no progress will be made.

Some regional activists can clearly see that it would be near impossible to make state politicians give up their states to regional control which their fathers had fought to gain freedom from regional hegemons. Most disheartening is that though they mouth self determination for all groups over their culture and economics, they want to throw small groups under the bus of hegemonic regionalism. At the end of which nothing will be achieved without 24 states for the two thirds quorum required to change the constitution.

** Justice J Faloye is the author of The Blackworld Evolution to Revolution, President ASHE Foundation think tank, and Afenifere National Publicity Secretary.