WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine is now struggling to cling on, not to win

“After 970 days of war,” said Lloyd Austin, America’s defence secretary, visiting Kyiv on October 21st, “Putin has not achieved one single strategic objective.” And Mr Austin offered confidence: “Moscow will never prevail in Ukraine.” In private, however, his colleagues in the Pentagon, Western officials and many Ukrainian commanders are increasingly worried about the direction of the war and Ukraine’s ability to hold back Russian advances over the next six months.

Ukrainian forces have managed to hold on to Pokrovsk, an embattled town in the eastern Donbas region—an embarrassment for Mr Putin. But elsewhere along the front, Russia is slicing its way through Ukrainian defences. In Kupiansk in the north, its troops have cut Ukrainian formations in two at the Oskil river. In Chasiv Yar in the east, they have crossed the main Siverskyi Donets canal, after six months of trying. Farther south, Russian troops have taken high ground in and around Vuhledar, and they are moving in on Kurakhove from two directions. In Kursk, inside Russia, Ukraine has lost around half the territory it seized earlier this year.

The problem is not so much the loss of territory, which is limited and has come at enormous cost to Russia—600,000 dead and wounded since the start of the war, on American estimates, and 57,000 dead this year to October alone, according to Ukrainian intelligence. It is the steady erosion in the size and quality of Ukraine’s forces. Ukrainian units are under-strength and overstretched, worn thin by heavy casualties. Despite a new mobilisation law that took effect in May, the army, outside a handful of brigades, has struggled to recruit enough replacements, with young men reluctant to sign up to tours of duty that are at best indefinite and, at worst, one-way missions. Western partners are privately urging Ukraine’s leaders to lower the mobilisation age floor from 25 to increase the potential pool of recruits. But political sensitivities and fears over an already alarming demographic crisis stand in the way of any change.

In a recent essay, Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute, a think-tank in London, identifies several reasons for Ukraine’s declining fortunes. One is a shortfall in its air-defence interceptors, allowing Russian reconnaissance drones to establish what he calls “continuous and dense surveillance”. These in turn cue up ballistic-missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian artillery in the rear and glide bombs against troops at the front, allowing Russia to make slow but steady advances in small units, often using motorcycles because tanks are too easy to spot. Ukraine’s limited stock of shells—Russia currently has a two-to-one advantage in shellfire, according to Ivan Havrilyuk, Ukraine’s deputy defence minister—as well as tanks and armoured vehicles compounds that problem. The less firepower and armour are available, the greater the reliance on infantry and the greater the casualties.

Russia is not without its own serious problems. Next year it will spend a third of its national budget on defence, starving the civilian economy in the process. Inflation is perhaps double the official annual rate of more than 8%. In 2025 ordinary Russian families will begin to feel the economic pain for the first time, says a European intelligence official, adding that there are early signs of war fatigue among those closely connected to the conflict, such as mothers and other family members.

On the battlefield, Russia still relies on crude tactics that result in massive casualties. The decision to borrow thousands of North Korean troops, who are thought to be bound for the Kursk front, shows that Russian units are also stretched. Russia’s general staff and defence ministry have put “heavy pressure” on the Kremlin to mobilise more men, says the European official. “Russia now doesn’t have sufficient forces to mass,” says a senior NATO official. “If they achieved a breakthrough they could not exploit it.” There is little short-term risk of Russian troops streaming west to Dnipro or Odessa.

But the crisis in Russia’s war economy is likely to play out over a longer period. Russia’s defence industry depends in part on the refurbishment of Soviet-era stocks, which are getting low in critical areas such as armoured vehicles. It is nonetheless far outperforming Western production lines. The EU claims to be making more than 1m shells per year; Russia is making three times as many, and is also boosted by supplies from North Korea and Iran. “I just don’t know we can produce enough, give enough,” says a person familiar with the flow of American aid, though a recent $800m commitment to boost Ukraine’s indigenous drone production is welcome. “We have no more to give them without taking serious risks in other places.” On manpower, too, Russia remains solvent. Its army is recruiting around 30,000 men per month, says the NATO official. That is less than government targets, but is still enough to cover even the gargantuan losses of recent months.

Russia cannot fight for ever. But the worry among American, European and Ukrainian officials is that Ukraine’s breaking point will come first. “Moscow seems to be wagering that it can achieve its objectives in the Donbas next year,” writes Mr Watling, “and impose a rate of casualties and material degradation on the Ukrainian military high enough that it will no longer be capable of preventing further advances.” That, he warns, would give Russia leverage in any negotiations that follow.

The gloomy mood is evident in a shift in America’s language. Senior officials like Mr Austin still strike a confident note, promising that Ukraine will win. Those involved in the guts of planning in the Pentagon say that, in practice, the ambitions of early 2023—a Ukrainian force that could take back its territory or shock Russia into talks through a well-crafted armoured punch—have given way to a narrow focus on preventing defeat. “At this point we are thinking more and more about how Ukraine can survive,” says a person involved in that planning.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Russian forces liberate Voznesenka community in Donbass region over past day

Russian forces liberated the community of Voznesenka in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) over the past 24 hours in the special military operation in Ukraine, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported on Thursday.

"Battlegroup Center units kept advancing deep into the enemy’s defenses and liberated the settlement of Voznesenka in the Donetsk People’s Republic," the ministry said in a statement.

Russia’s Battlegroup North inflicts 80 casualties on Ukrainian army in Kharkov area

Russia’s Battlegroup North inflicted roughly 80 casualties on Ukrainian troops and destroyed two enemy armored vehicles in its area of responsibility in the Kharkov Region over the past 24 hours, the ministry reported.

"Battlegroup North units inflicted losses in the Kharkov direction on formations of the Ukrainian army’s 71st jaeger, 113th and 120th territorial defense brigades in areas near the settlements of Volchansk and Liptsy in the Kharkov Region," the ministry said.

The Ukrainian army’s losses in that frontline area over the past 24 hours amounted to 80 personnel, two armored combat vehicles and seven motor vehicles, it specified.

Russia’s Battlegroup West inflicts 570 casualties on Ukrainian army over past day

Russia’s Battlegroup West inflicted roughly 570 casualties on Ukrainian troops and destroyed three enemy ammunition depots in its area of responsibility over the past day, the ministry reported.

"Battlegroup West units improved their tactical position and struck manpower and equipment of the Ukrainian army’s 14th, 60th and 116th mechanized, 25th air assault, 119th and 241st territorial defense and 1st National Guard brigades near Terny in the Donetsk People’s Republic, Zagryzovo, Lozovaya, Boguslavka, Kovsharovka and Petropavlovka in the Kharkov Region and in the area of the Serebryanka forestry. They repelled two counterattacks by formations of the Ukrainian army’s 14th and 28th mechanized brigades," the ministry said.

The Ukrainian army’s losses in that frontline area over the past 24 hours amounted to 570 personnel, an infantry fighting vehicle, a US-made M113 armored personnel carrier, seven motor vehicles, two 122mm D-30 howitzers, four Anklav-N and Kvertus electronic warfare stations and a Plastun radio-electronic surveillance station, it specified.

In addition, Russian forces destroyed three field ammunition depots of the Ukrainian army, it said.

Russia’s Battlegroup South inflicts 655 casualties on Ukrainian troops over past day

Russia’s Battlegroup South inflicted roughly 655 casualties on Ukrainian troops and destroyed three enemy tanks in its area of responsibility over the past day, the ministry reported.

"Battlegroup South units improved their frontline positions and inflicted casualties on formations of the Ukrainian army’s 30th, 33rd, 56th and 81st mechanized, 56th motorized infantry, 46th airmobile, 79th air assault and 116th territorial defense brigades near the settlements of Zaliznyanskoye, Druzhkovka, Dyleyevka, Orekhovo-Vasilevka, Reznikovka, Kurakhovo, Annovka and Seversk in the Donetsk People’s Republic," the ministry said.

The Ukrainian army lost 655 personnel, three tanks, an infantry fighting vehicle, an armored personnel carrier, 13 motor vehicles, a British-made 155mm Braveheart self-propelled artillery system, a Polish-manufactured 155mm Krab self-propelled artillery system, a 155mm M777 howitzer and a 105mm M119 artillery gun of US manufacture, two 122mm D-30 howitzers and a Croatian-made RAK-SA-12 multiple rocket launcher, it specified.

In addition, Russian forces destroyed two Anklav-N electronic warfare stations, a Plastun radio-electronic surveillance station and two ammunition depots of the Ukrainian army, it said.

Russia’s Battlegroup Center inflicts over 485 casualties on Ukrainian army in past day

Russia’s Battlegroup Center inflicted more than 485 casualties on Ukrainian troops and destroyed a German-made combat vehicle in its area of responsibility over the past day, the ministry reported.

Battlegroup Center units "inflicted losses on manpower and equipment of the Ukrainian army’s 33rd, 53rd, 100th and 109th mechanized, 95th air assault, 5th mountain assault, 142nd infantry and 101st territorial defense brigades near the settlements of Zelyonoye Pole, Leonidovka, Druzhba, Dzerzhinsk, Sukhaya Balka and Dimitrov in the Donetsk People’s Republic. They repelled 11 counterattacks by formations of the Ukrainian army’s 53rd and 117th mechanized and 152nd jaeger brigades, 49th and 425th assault battalions, 35th and 38th marine infantry brigades," the ministry said.

The Ukrainian army’s losses in that frontline area over the past 24 hours amounted to more than 485 personnel, a German-made Marder infantry fighting vehicle, five Kozak armored combat vehicles, a Turkish-made Kirpi armored fighting vehicle, five motor vehicles, a US-made 155mm M777 howitzer, a 152mm D-20 howitzer, two 152mm Msta-B howitzers, a 122mm Gvozdika motorized artillery system and two 122mm D-30 howitzers, it specified.

Russia’s Battlegroup East inflicts 145 casualties on Ukrainian army over past day

Russia’s Battlegroup East repulsed two Ukrainian army counterattacks and inflicted roughly 145 casualties on enemy troops in its area of responsibility over the past day, the ministry reported.

"Battlegroup East units improved their frontline positions and inflicted casualties on formations of the Ukrainian army’s 128th mountain assault, 127th and 128th territorial defense brigades near the settlements of Velikaya Novosyolka and Oktyabr in the Donetsk People’s Republic and Temirovka in the Zaporozhye Region. They repulsed two counterattacks by assault groups of the 123rd territorial defense brigade," the ministry said.

The Ukrainian army lost as many as 145 personnel, a tank, three armored combat vehicles and six motor vehicles in that frontline area over the past 24 hours, it specified.

The Economist/Tass

One year ago, on November 15, 2023, the Nigerian Guild of Editors (NGE) invited me to speak on “Nigerian Media, Sustainability and Existential Threats by Big Tech.” Being asked again this year is a privilege, but I won’t be surprised if this is my last invitation.

Perhaps I won’t need to come as a presenter next time. A learning machine, Anaba possibly, might be here to do the job. This may sound incredible, but increasingly, with improvements in infotech and biotech, it seems that what AI cannot do does not exist.

In its most basic definition, generative artificial intelligence (AI) refers to computer systems capable of performing complex tasks that, historically, only humans could perform. Journalists, for example, used to think of themselves as the masters of storytelling in a hurry and God’s gift to the world as gatekeepers. We’re humbler now.

Luddites’ nightmare

The widespread use of AI is causing anxiety among journalists and other professionals, especially the Luddites. Recently, I wanted to redecorate my apartment. I asked a furniture company in Abuja to recommend an interior decorator. The two recommended insisted on a pre-inspection deposit of 100k, which I wasn’t prepared to pay.

I went to ChatGPT and imputed a description of my apartment with measurements, asking for a photo design. I got it in minutes, complete with a floor plan and car park design. ChatGPT even asked if I needed optional designs! Midjourney or AR would give far more incredibly splendid options!

According to Digital News Project 2024, “Journalism, Media, and Technology Trends and Predictions 2024” by Nic Newman, apart from rising costs and declining revenues, 300 digital leaders from more than 50 countries/territories also expressed significant concerns about using AI for backend news automation and experimental internet interfaces, including AR and VR glasses, lapel pins, and other wearable devices.

What’s AI up to?

Let us look briefly at two recent examples of the use of AI in storytelling, one in North America and the other in Europe, that have resonated in many parts of the world.

In Mexico, Grupo Formula, the country’s leading broadcasting group with 2.3m YouTube subscribers, created three avatars—NAT, SOFI, and MAX—three robotic journalists who generate content in entertainment, sports, and politics for the company’s social media handles.

The group’s director of technology and AI infrastructure told the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism, “The news stories that NAT, SOFI and others present are small stories and very focused towards young people who don’t connect well with the old-style newscast. We are looking to connect with these young people using technology.” Grupo Formula’s subsidiary, TV OAI, is the first news channel in Latin America powered 100 percent by AI.

More recently, a Polish radio station, Radio Krakow, announced the relaunch of OFF Radio, the first experiment in Poland where AI-driven characterstake on the role of traditional journalists.

In response to concerns about the increasing role of automation in the physical and cognitive spheres, Yuval Harari said in his book 21 Lessons for the 21st Century, “It would be madness to block automation… to protect human jobs. After all, what we ultimately ought to protect is humans – not jobs.” I agree.

What opportunities exist?

What opportunities does AI present, and how might journalists use them for storytelling? a). Streamlined content production: AI tools can significantly streamline content production, allowing journalists to focus on the creative aspects rather than time-consuming tasks and drudgery.

For example, algorithms can assist in generating ideas or first drafts; b). Personalisation of content: Algorithms can analyse user preferences and behaviours to create bespoke narratives with individual audiences; c). Enhanced engagement: AI can create immersive and interactive storytelling experiences.

For example, games and multimedia stories that adapt based on user decisions can attract individuals who may not typically engage with traditional forms of storytelling; c). Creation of new opportunities: The fusion of AI and human effort can create new possibilities previously challenging to imagine.

One good example is the collaborative effort involving 400 journalists from 80 countries sifting through 11 million documents and 2.6 terabytes of data during the Panama Papers investigation; d). Generative AI can repurpose chaos: In an article entitled “AI news that’s fit to print,” Zach Seward wrote, “Faced with the chaotic, messy reality of everyday life, LLMs (Large Language Models), are useful tools for summarising text, fetching information, understanding data, and creating structure…but always with human oversight.” This article also shares some of AI’s best and worst use cases.

Challenges of AI use

Ethical concerns in AI storytelling include the potential for generative models to create misleading information, such as fake stories or images that blur the line between reality and fabrication. The Cambridge Analytica case and Covid-19 are good examples. Concerns about legal liability and privacy protection have also been expressed.

Other concerns include quality, coherence and creativity, originality, fairness and bias, and adaptability to genre and audience.

Limits and success stories:

AI is a work in progress. Again, from Seward’s article, we could use lessons from some excellent and ugly examples of its application even in countries where automated storytelling appears to be well-established already. First, the nasty experiences:

CNET and the tech error soup: Last January, CNET, a tech website, published financial advisory stories on short-term saving instruments, how to manage and close bank accounts, and other topics. Although the byline said the stories were written by the platform’s “Money Staff,” they were not. Language machines wrote them, but the massive errors (described as moments of hallucinations) exposed the site! Actual staff members saved the day by cleaning up the copies.

Sports Illustrated’s Street Spin: The Street, a publication from the stable of Sports Illustrated, published a raft of bot-generated stories and made matters worse by curating and attaching fake author identities to the stories. The spin didn’t end well.

Good news

But there have been good experiences, as well:

Modelling for pattern or image recognition machines has proved valuable when analysing large data caches. Media houses such as Buzzfeed Newsand The Wall Street Journal have used AI to establish significant trends in otherwise desperate and solitary occurrences or patterns.

Examples range from the Mauritius Leaks, which involved 200k highly technical documents, to the story on the miles of dangerous lead cables around New Jersey streets that posed severe public health risks to residents. Zach Seward also documents a few other examples in his piece entitled “AI news that’s fit to print.”

Where is the Nigerian storyteller?

Farooq Kperogi and I collaborated on an academic paper for the Journal of Applied Journalism and Media Studies entitled “Light in a Digital Blackhole: Exploration of Emergent Artificial Intelligence Journalism in Nigeria.”

The study found that social media and the rise of citizen journalists have changed the landscape and accelerated the mainstream adoption of automated journalism.

More media houses use tools, including social media integration software like Echobox, Hootsuite, Revive, and Dlvrit, to drive audience and revenue goals. The election watchdog Yiaga Africa collaborates with some TV stations to collate and analyse election results using AI tools. Automated fact-checking systems, drones, and language management tools are also being deployed.

While costs and infrastructure remain significant barriers to adoption, attitudinal differences between younger journalists and the older, more established ones were also noticed, with newsrooms embracing more diversity in age cohorts and educational backgrounds.

Job losses? What jobs?

Our study did not justify the fear of imminent job losses among Nigerian journalists. However, the impact of the disruption on readership/audiences and revenues due to economic reasons and changing demographics is undeniable.

It would be good if anxiety about job losses led to greater introspection, retooling, and adoption of technologies and practices that improve journalism, especially the core business of storytelling.

If the destination is uncertain, the least we can hope for is that we are in good company, human or otherwise. And it won’t matter if the chatbot delivers this lecture next year!

** Ishiekwene is the Editor-In-Chief of LEADERSHIP and the author of Writing for Media and Monetising It. This modified version of AI-Generated Storytelling: Opportunities and Challenges was based on my presentation at the 20th Annual Conference of the NGE on November 8.

Melody Wilding

Why do decision-makers at work really choose one person for a role over another? What actually makes them trust someone’s judgment? How do they decide in practice who to tap for important opportunities?

For the last 12 years, I’ve coached top performers at some of the world’s largest and most competitive Fortune 500 companies. As a result, I’ve been a trusted advisor to executives, C-suite leaders, and hiring managers who’ve confided in me their answers to all these questions. 

Over time I’ve seen that technical expertise gets you far, but your ability to communicate persuasively determines whether your opinion is actively sought out or you have to fight to get your voice heard. 

I’ve watched this play out across different industries and ranks. The ability to influence others can set you up for success. And vice versa. Take the smart subject matter expert who can’t translate their work into the language of decision-makers, for example, or the skilled but inarticulate manager who gets passed over for promotion.

Your impact and advancement at workdepends on your ability to persuade others.

Becoming persuasive doesn’t mean resorting to manipulation, mind games, or politicking. In fact, the most powerful communicators I’ve worked with are thoughtful professionals who’ve learned to leverage their perceptiveness strategically. They understand psychology: how people think, what drives their choices, and how to present ideas to get seen, heard, and paid. 

The good news is that persuasive communication is a learnable skill. Here are my three favorite strategies to get started. Pick one to try today, and watch how differently people respond to your contributions.

1. Lead with your bottom line

Decision-makers are busy and overwhelmed. When you take too long to get to your point, you risk losing their attention, and you may inadvertently signal that you don’t have a good handle on your own message.

Contrast this with someone who can articulate their key point in a few crisp sentences. That level of clarity suggests expertise and confidence.

To be more persuasive, start with your conclusion, request, or recommendation, then follow with supporting evidence as needed. This might sound like: 

• “I recommend pushing the product launch to September. The three factors driving this are ….”
• “We need to consider redesigning our app’s navigation by Q3 to stop losing users. The data shows ….”
• “Can you review this report by Thursday? I need your input specifically on X and Y.”

Before your next meeting, write down your main “take-home” message in one to two clear sentences. That constraint forces you to filter out the fluff and focus on the information that matters. 

2. Sell your idea as a way to solve specific problems

Persuasive communicators have mastered the art of translation. They reframe their messages through the lens of their audience’s needs.

People in power don’t just want clever solutions. They want good ideas that speak directly to their pressures, pain points, and priorities. Make that connection and you’ll gain a competitive edge. 

For example, instead of saying, “This new system will improve data processing efficiency by 40%,” you might say, “This solution will help you deliver quarterly reports three days faster, giving you more time to prepare for board meetings.” 

Even when you need to defer or push back, the same principle applies. Jazz up a simple “I’ll get back to you,” by saying instead, “I want to make sure I give you the most useful answer for your quarterly planning. Can I have until Friday to gather the specific data you’ll need?”

3. Speak with authority

Small shifts in your word choice can dramatically change how your message lands, especially with senior stakeholders.

Consider the difference between saying “I think we should …” versus “In my experience …” One signals uncertainty, the other expertise.

Or how about “I’m trying to …” versus “We’re implementing …”? The first suggests struggle, the second implies purposeful action.

Look for opportunities to swap weak verbs with more powerful ones. For example: 

• “Had to” can become “decided to,” “chose to,” or “opted to” 
• “Helped” could be replaced with “guided,” “directed,” “led,” “advised,” or “oversaw”

Don’t get caught up in fancy words or corporate jargon. This is about choosing more precise language that reflects the scale and scope of your actions. 

CNBC

The federal government spent $3.57 billion servicing the country’s foreign debt in the first nine months of 2024.

According to data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) report on international payment statistics, the federal government debt service increased by 39.7 percent from the $2.56 billion spent during the same period in 2023.

The data showed that the highest monthly debt servicing payment in 2024 occurred in May, amounting to $854.36 million, while the highest monthly expenditure in 2023 was $641.69 million recorded in July.

A monthly breakdown of international debt figures for 2024 showed that in January, debt servicing cost was $560.51 million – up by 389 percent compared to $112.34 million recorded in January 2023.

In February, there was a decline of 1.8 percent, with payments reducing from $288.54 million in 2023 to $283.21 million in 2024.

The CBN data showed that in March payments also dropped 31.04 percent from $400.47 million in 2023 to $276.16 million in 2024.

However, April debt payments rose to $215.20 million in 2024 compared to $92.85 million in 2023.

The highest payment was recorded in May 2024, with the federal government spending $854.36 million to service debt — indicating a 286.52 percent increase compared to $221.05 million recorded in May 2023.  

In June 2024, debt payments declined to $50.82 million – down from $54.35 million in the same month in 2023.

Also, data showed that July 2024 recorded a 15.48 percent drop, with payments reducing to $542.5 million compared to $641.6 million in July last year.

In August, there was another decline of 9.69 percent, as $279.9 million was paid compared to $309.9 million in the same month in 2023.

However, September 2024 saw a 17.49 percent increase, with payments rising to $515.81 million from $439.06 million in September last year.

Nigeria’s debt management has been a cause of concern. 

In the second quarter (Q2) of 2024, the Debt Management Office (DMO) said Nigeria’s public debt rose to N134 trillion – up by 10 percent from N121.67 trillion in Q1 2024.

While domestic debt rose to N71.22 trillion ($48.44 million) in June 2024, foreign or external debt stood at N63.07 trillion ($42.90 million) in June 2024.

The Cable

Nigeria's state oil firm, NNPC Ltd said on Wednesday one of its subsidiaries has agreed to supply 100 million standard cubic feet of gas per day to the Dangote oil refinery for the next 10 years.

Financial details were not disclosed.

Under the agreement, NNPC Gas Marketing Limited will supply the refinery built by Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote in Lagos with natural gas for power generation and feedstock. The contract has options for renewal and additional supply.

NNPC, Africa's biggest oil producer, is seeking to promote domestic gas consumption for industrial growth.

Reuters

The Nigerian Railway Corporation (NRC) has announced an increase in its Abuja-Kaduna train services from four to six trips daily, running from Monday to Friday.

This expansion is aimed at meeting the growing demand for train services on the route.

The acting Managing Director of the NRC, Ben Iloanusi, confirmed the development in a statement issued on Wednesday in Lagos.

The statement, signed by Yakub Mohmood, Deputy Director of Public Relations at the NRC, highlighted the corporation’s commitment to improving customer satisfaction and addressing complaints of ticket racketeering.

“The Nigerian Railway Corporation (NRC) has increased the number of train services from four to six services from Monday to Friday on its Abuja-Kaduna route. 

The statement from the NRC highlighted that a five-month analysis showed a 22% increase in new passengers registering on the ticket platform for the Abuja-Kaduna route. This growth, it noted, reflects a significant rise in the number of Nigerians opting for train services as a preferred mode of transportation due to its comfort, reliability, and safety.

More insight  

The report further noted that the Acting Managing Director added that similar increases in passenger demand have been observed on other routes, such as Lagos-Ibadan, Warri-Itakpe, and Port Harcourt-Aba.

He disclosed that efforts are underway to enhance services along these routes as part of the NRC’s long-term strategy.

Iloanusi assured the public of the corporation’s ongoing efforts to tackle ticket racketeering and improve efficiency. Senior management personnel will maintain an increased presence across train service routes to ensure smooth operations.

He encouraged passengers to use the NRC’s online ticketing platform to benefit from the increased services and avoid patronizing ticket racketeers.

Nairametrics

Israel presses airstrikes as Beirut awaits truce ideas

Israeli airstrikes pounded Beirut's Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs for a second consecutive day on Wednesday, as Lebanon waited to hear Washington's latest ceasefire proposals after a U.S. official expressed hope a truce could be reached.

More than seven weeks since Israel went on the offensive against Iran-backed Hezbollah, mid-morning airstrikes levelled half a dozen buildings in the Beirut suburb known as Dahiyeh and killed eight people in Dawhit Aramoun, a village south of the capital. The dead included three women and three children, Lebanon's health ministry said.

"They used to hit Dahiyeh at night, now they are doing it in daytime. Things are intensifying day after day," said Hassan Moussa, 40, speaking in Beirut, adding that Israeli airstrikes had also widened to areas such as Aramoun.

Israel launched a major air and ground offensive against the heavily armed Hezbollah in late September after nearly a year of cross-border conflict fought in parallel with the Gaza war.

The Israeli military said its air force had destroyed nine Hezbollah weapons storage facilities and command centres in strikes in the Beirut area, and that Hezbollah fired 40 projectiles into Israel on Wednesday. Six Israeli soldiers had been killed in combat in southern Lebanon, the military said.

It said a heavy barrage of rockets was fired later in the day from Lebanon at Israel, where sirens sounded in the central areas. There were no immediate reports of any damage or casualties from that attack.

White House envoy Amos Hochstein, the U.S. official who has led several fruitless attempts to broker a ceasefire over the last year, told Axios that he thought "there is a shot" at a truce in Lebanon soon. "I am hopeful we can get it."

His comments point to a last-ditch bid by the outgoing administration of U.S. President Joe Biden to secure a Lebanon ceasefire as diplomacy to end the Gaza war appears adrift, with mediator Qatar having suspended its role.

The United States and other world powers say a ceasefire in Lebanon must be based on U.N. Security Council resolution 1701 which ended a war between the sides in 2006. The resolution demands that the areas of south Lebanon near the Israeli border be free of any weapons other than those of the Lebanese state.

Israel long complained it was never implemented, pointing to Hezbollah weapons and fighters at the border. Lebanon in turn accused Israel of violating the resolution, with Israeli warplanes regularly violating its airspace.

Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a political ally of Hezbollah and endorsed by it to negotiate, was quoted as saying that Lebanon was awaiting concrete ceasefire proposals and had not been informed officially of any new ideas.

"What is on the table is only Resolution 1701 and its provisions, which must be implemented and adhered to by both sides, not by the Lebanese side alone," Berri, who helped negotiate the 2006 truce, told Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper.

Israel wants the right to intervene itself to enforce any ceasefire if it deems it necessary, noting the presence of U.N. peacekeepers in south Lebanon had not stopped Hezbollah from building forces in the area.

ISRAELI WARNING

There were no immediate reports of casualties in Wednesday's Israeli strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs, which residents have been largely evacuated.

The Israeli military earlier issued a statement on social media saying it would act soon against targets in the area, warning residents they were located near Hezbollah facilities.

Tuesday's Israeli airstrikes, also carried out mid-morning, flattened around a dozen buildings in Dahiyeh.

Hezbollah said it used drones to attack Tel Aviv's Hakirya military base for the first time. There was no immediate comment from the Israeli military on Hezbollah's statement and no sirens were reported by the military in Tel Aviv.

On Monday, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said there had been "a certain progress" in ceasefire talks over Lebanon, though the main challenge would be enforcement.

Israel's new Defence Minister Israel Katz said there would be no ceasefire or arrangement in Lebanon that did not include Israel's right to enforce and act on its own against Hezbollah.

Several diplomats said it would be all but impossible to get Hezbollah or Lebanon to accept any proposal that included this demand.

Since hostilities erupted a year ago, Israeli attacks have killed at least 3,365 people in Lebanon, the majority in the last seven weeks, according to the Lebanese health ministry. Its figures do not distinguish between civilians and combatants.

Hezbollah attacks have killed about 100 civilians and soldiers in northern Israel, the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and southern Lebanon over the last year, according to Israel.

A Hezbollah attack on Tuesday killed two people in the city of Nahariya in northern Israel. Hezbollah later claimed responsibility for a drone attack that it said was aimed at a military base east of Nahariya.

Reuters

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine could have nuclear weapon in months – report

Ukraine could feasibly raid the country’s nuclear reactors to develop crude atomic weapons if the US cuts off military aid, a briefing paper prepared for the Ministry of Defense has advised.

The Times reported on Wednesday that its authors at the National Institute for Strategic Studies believe 

“creating a simple atomic bomb, as the United States did within the framework of the Manhattan Project, would not be a difficult task 80 years later.”

Published by the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies, the report claims that “creating a simple atomic bomb, as the United States did within the framework of the Manhattan Project, would not be a difficult task 80 years later.”

While Ukraine cannot enrich Uranium – a process vital for building modern nuclear weapons, its nine operating nuclear reactors contain an estimated seven tons of plutonium, its authors claimed. This could be used to build bombs similar to the ‘Fat Man’ device dropped on Nagasaki by the US in 1945, they wrote.

While a Ukrainian ‘Fat Man’ would only be a tenth as powerful as the device that leveled Nagasaki, the amount of plutonium in the country’s reactors “is sufficient for hundreds of warheads with a tactical yield of several kilotons,” they argued.

“That would be enough to destroy an entire Russian airbase or concentrated military, industrial or logistics installations. The exact nuclear yield would be unpredictable because it would use different isotopes of plutonium,” author Aleksey Yizhak explained.

Excerpts from the paper were published by The Times on Wednesday. According to the British newspaper, the report has been shared with Ukraine’s deputy defense minister, and will be presented at a conference attended by the country’s defense and strategic industries ministers on Wednesday.

Russia’s nuclear doctrine allows for the use of such weapons in the event of a first nuclear strike on its territory or infrastructure, or if the existence of the Russian state is threatened by either nuclear or conventional weapons. Earlier this year, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that Moscow should have the right to consider the nuclear option if it is attacked by a non-nuclear state that is backed by one that possesses such weaponry.

The threat of Russian nuclear retaliation has prevented NATO from intervening directly in the Ukraine conflict, the outgoing chief of the bloc’s military committee, Admiral Rob Bauer, said at a summit on Sunday.

Speaking to The Times, Yizhak downplayed the threat of nuclear war. “I was surprised by the reverence the United States has for Russia’s nuclear threat. It may have cost us the war,” he said. “They treat nuclear weapons as some kind of God. So perhaps it is also time for us to pray to this God.”

Last month, Zelensky declared that Ukraine would attempt to acquire nuclear weapons if it is denied NATO membership, although he later walked these comments back. “Russia will not allow this to happen, no matter what,” Putin said in response.

In a statement on Thursday, Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Georgy Tikhy said that Kiev was “not developing and not seeking to develop nuclear weapons.”

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Russia stages first missile attack on Kyiv since August, Ukraine says

Blasts boomed across Kyiv on Wednesday morning after officials said Russia launched its first missile attack on the Ukrainian capital since August, forcing elderly women and small children to take shelter in an underground metro station.

Ukrainians have been waiting for a big missile attack for months, worried that it could deal a new blow to the hobbled energy system and cause long blackouts as winter sets in.

Air defences intercepted two incoming cruise missiles, two ballistic missiles and 37 drones across the country, the air force said. No casualties or major damage were reported in Kyiv.

"Putin is launching a missile attack on Kyiv right now," Andriy Yermak, the head of the president's office, wrote on Telegram.

Falling debris came down in the region outside Kyiv, injuring a 48-year-old man and causing a fire at a warehouse, the head of Kyiv region's administration said.

Kyiv has faced Russian drone attacks almost nightly for weeks. City mayor Vitali Klitschko said a drone was still flying over central Kyiv in the morning.

"Explosions in the city. Air defence forces are working. Stay in shelters!" the Kyiv city administration wrote on Telegram.

Around 100 residents took shelter in the central metro station Universitet, including small children sleeping on yoga mats and elderly women sitting on fold-out chairs.

Some complained of a lack of sleep from the regular drone attacks, which trigger the air raid alert that sounds across the city and buzzes on phones.

"The mornings are totally ruined. I started college in September and every morning has been ruined by the bloody Russians. I cannot sleep, cannot think and I drink energy drinks all the time," said Mykyta, a teenager hugging his dog in the metro.

MASSIVE ATTACK

Russia targeted Ukrainian power facilities with strikes earlier this year, causing blackouts. The situation has since improved, but officials believe the Kremlin may plan to attack the grid again soon.

Andrii Kovalenko, a senior official at the National Security and Defence Council, warned that Russia was ready to conduct another "massive" attack and had accumulated a large number of cruise missiles.

After Wednesday's strike, power grid operator Ukrenergo said it would limit electricity supply for businesses due to "significantly" lower power imports and lower generation.

The last time restrictions on power supplies were imposed on both businesses and households was after a big Russian missile and drone attack in late August.

It was unclear whether the new restrictions were linked to the latest attack. Ukraine's largest private power generator and distributor DTEK said the restrictions would apply to Kyiv, the surrounding region and the regions of Odesa, Dnipro and Donetsk.

Despite regular drone attacks, Russia has not struck Kyiv with missiles since Aug. 26 when it launched a massive attack across the country that officials said deployed more than 200 drones and missiles. That attack killed seven people, Ukraine said.

RT/Reuters

Each fall, a telephone call from Stockholm launches one or a few scholars to international fame with the bestowal of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences – a process that Irving Wallace dramatized in his 1962 potboiler The Prize.

This year, the call went to three figures who are already well-known, the economists Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and the political scientist James A. Robinson of the University of Chicago. The three were recognized for their “studies of how institutions are formed and affect prosperity,” and in an interesting twist, the award comes exactly 15 years after the committee conferred it on Elinor Ostrom for her own work on institutions, particularly “for her analysis of economic governance, especially the commons.”

Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson (or AJR, as they are known) won the award primarily for their research into the role of colonialism in determining the economic fate of nations. Prominent social-science projects from Max Weber’s The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism to Jared Diamond’s Gun, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies have long sought to explain the “great divergence” between Europe and its wealthy offshoots and the rest of the world. While AJR had the same goal, they pursued it in a new way, by asking why societies that were once relatively rich are now relatively poor, and vice versa.

In an influential 2002 paper, “Reversal of Fortune: Geography and Institutions in the Making of the Modern World Income Distribution,” AJR conclude that the key determinant of future growth is whether a country has “inclusive institutions” that allow economic gains to be shared broadly, as opposed to “extractive institutions” that siphon wealth to a narrow elite.

Whether a colonial power bequeathed inclusive or extractive institutions depended on various environmental and other factors. For example, in their most widely cited paper, “The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development,” AJR argue that the most effective predictor of future economic growth was how hospitable the terrain was for European settlers. The colonizers invested in good institutions in regions where their own chances of survival were higher – namely, the New World colonies of North America, Australia, and New Zealand.

AJR’s scholarship is sophisticated and innovative, and I, for one, appreciate their focus on institutions. They have continued the tradition pioneered by the Nobel laureate economist Douglass North in his magnum opus, Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance. Their prescriptions, however, are not new. Conventional “law and economics” theories and the Washington Consensus have long emphasized the importance of the rule of law in underwriting growth.

By contrast, Ostrom’s work on community-led institutional solutions genuinely broke new ground. She fundamentally altered our understanding of the role played by “polycentric institutions” that go beyond the dichotomies of market and state. Until she undertook her ground-breaking work (summarized in Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action), it was widely assumed that common property – including critical ecological configurations like forests, water systems, fisheries, and the global atmosphere – was inherently inefficient.

Ostrom’s extensive empirical investigations into self-organized systems – from water-management in California to irrigation in Nepal – demonstrated that this is not always the case. And her lab experiments showed that people are more willing to enforce mutually agreed rules than previously thought.

Most critically, Ostrom’s work examined the variables that correlate with, or create conditions for, cooperation to solve collective-action problems, showing (contrary to Garett Hardin’s classic work) that the challenges associated with the commons need not end in tragedy. By demonstrating that the success of institutions depends heavily on participants’ engagement with, and investments in, them, she pointed toward an alternative explanation for AJR’s results.

Recall AJR’s argument that countries where Western institutions were imposed, but where Europeans also settled in large numbers and thrived, later experienced the most rapid and robust growth. As I argue in a recent paper, the source of these societies’ success may not have been their inherent institutional superiority, but rather their inhabitants’ relative psychological familiarity with those institutions. After all, the cognitive and contextual mismatch between institutions and their surrounding environment has long been understood to play a part in the difficulties surrounding “legal transplantation” (importing legal codes from elsewhere).

In Wallace’s novel, the protagonist, poignantly, wins the Nobel Prize in Literature for a book called The Perfect State. While we wait for that ideal institution to be devised, we remain stubbornly reliant on flawed people to prop up our institutions. Fortunately, Ostrom showed that this is possible. As we celebrate AJR’s contributions, let us not forget Ostrom’s. While Acemoglu and Johnson’s bestseller Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty illuminates one path to prosperity, Ostrom’s scholarship shows that there could be many.

Project Syndicate

Melissa Houston

In business, setbacks and failures are inevitable. Every successful entrepreneur can share stories of moments they stumbled or faced rejection, obstacles, or outright failure. But here’s the truth: setbacks don't define the end of your journey; they are simply chapters in your story. If harnessed correctly, failures can be the stepping stones to your success.

Here’s how to transform your setbacks into valuable lessons:

1. Accept and Embrace Failure as a Learning Opportunity

Many entrepreneurs feel immense pressure to be perfect and avoid failure. However, failure is often the best teacher. When you experience a setback, the first step is to accept it and look for the lesson within it. Analyze what went wrong and consider what you could have done differently. Embrace the experience, as each mistake is a stepping stone to greater wisdom. This shift in perspective will allow you to reframe failure as a growth opportunity.

Key Takeaway: Develop a habit of conducting post-mortem assessments after setbacks. Ask yourself, “What can I learn from this?” and “How can I apply this lesson to my next venture?”

2. Refocus on Your Mission and Vision

When you experience a setback, it’s easy to get disheartened and lose sight of why you started. Return to your "why." Why did you start this business in the first place? What impact do you want to make? Reaffirming your mission and vision can help you stay grounded and remind you that setbacks are temporary obstacles on your long-term journey. Realigning with your purpose can reignite your passion and motivate you to keep moving forward.

Key Takeaway: Write down your mission and vision statements. Refer to them whenever you face a setback to stay focused on the bigger picture.

3. Adapt and Pivot When Necessary

Setbacks often indicate that something in your business strategy needs adjustment. Perhaps there is a product-market misalignment, or your marketing efforts aren’t resonating with your audience. Be willing to adapt and pivot. Some of the world’s most successful companies started with one idea, hit multiple roadblocks, and then pivoted into an entirely new direction that ultimately led to their success.

Key Takeaway: Evaluate what’s not working in your business model and explore new directions that align with your market’s needs. Flexibility is often the key to resilience.

4. Strengthen Your Skills and Knowledge

Failures and setbacks often expose gaps in knowledge or skill. Use this as an opportunity to grow by seeking new information or acquiring skills that can make you more resilient. Whether it’s learning about financial management, sales strategies, or mastering digital marketing, the more equipped you are, the better you’ll be at navigating challenges in the future.

Key Takeaway: Identify areas for improvement and invest in education or mentorship to fill those gaps. Business is a journey of constant learning, and setbacks reveal what you need to master next.

5. Build a Support System and Seek Mentorship

Resilient entrepreneurs know they don’t have to go through difficult times alone. A strong support system is invaluable, whether it’s a network of peers, mentors, or coaches. Surrounding yourself with people who have experienced similar struggles can provide guidance and encouragement when you need it most. Their insights can help you see challenges in a new light and discover strategies for moving forward.

Key Takeaway: Build a network of mentors, peers, and advisors who can support you through challenges. Join industry groups or networkingcommunities to find others who can help you stay motivated.

6. Set New Goals and Take Action

Failures can derail you if you let them, but they can also propel you to set new goals. Reevaluate your objectives and set clear, actionable goals that can guide you forward. Start small if necessary. Taking even the smallest steps toward improvement can build your confidence and keep your momentum strong.

Key Takeaway: Use setbacks as a motivator to redefine your goals. By setting and achieving small objectives, you can start building a new path to success.

7. Develop a Resilient Mindset

In the end, your mindset will be your biggest asset in overcoming setbacks. A resilient mindset will help you bounce back, take ownership of your mistakes, and continue pushing forward. Remind yourself that setbacks are part of the journey, and every successful entrepreneur has overcome them. Cultivating a growth mindset means seeing every failure as part of your success journey rather than a sign to give up.

Key Takeaway: Practice resilience by focusing on self-care, staying positive, and embracing challenges as opportunities for growth. Remember, a setback is not the end—it's a setup for a comeback.

The bottom line is that turning setbacks into success requires a proactive approach, a strong support network, and a resilient mindset. When you embrace failures as learning opportunities, stay committed to your mission, and keep moving forward with determination, you are already on the path to success.

Remember, every failure brings you closer to your goals if you’re willing to learn and adapt. Your business journey may be filled with challenges, but each setback holds the potential to shape you into a stronger, wiser, and more successful entrepreneur.

Forbes