WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukrainian troops battle exhaustion as war drags into second winter

Istoryk, a 26-year-old soldier in eastern Ukraine, finally managed to fall asleep one morning, exhausted from the relentless battles against Russian forces in the pinewood forests near Kreminna.

His rest was cut short just an hour later when a fresh firefight broke out, forcing the senior combat medic back into action in a fierce and lengthy exchange.

"We had a firefight for over 20 hours," said Istoryk, identified by his military call sign. "Non-stop fighting, assaults, evacuations, and you know, I managed it," he told a Reuters reporter visiting his position on Thursday.

"And we all managed it. We aren't very fresh, and right now we need to find strength."

His description of recent clashes, and the fatigue that he and his unit are experiencing, underscore the huge strain that the war, now in its 21st month, is putting on Ukraine's limited resources and on its troops.

The soldiers also know that Russia has a far bigger army and more weapons and ammunition, raising the uncomfortable question of how Ukraine can ever repel the invaders once and for all in Europe's bloodiest conflict since World War Two.

Ukraine's commander-in-chief, Valery Zaluzhnyi, described a "stalemate" on the battlefield in an interview published this week, adding that a protracted, attritional war would favour Russia and could threaten the very state.

Only new capabilities, including more supplies from Western allies as well as locally produced drones, would tip the balance back in Kyiv's favour, Zaluzhnyi said.

The highly respected general's stark assessment coincides with the advent of seasonal rains, which makes it harder to advance over muddy ground, and follows a summer counteroffensive which has liberated far less territory than Kyiv had hoped.

For those in the trenches, while exhaustion is unavoidable, motivation remains strong.

Istoryk, speaking in a broad west Ukrainian accent, recounts his grim experiences with a winning smile.

Asked whether he could continue to fight for another year, or even two, he replied: "I think so. For sure."

FALTERING OFFENSIVE

Istoryk serves in a rifles battalion of the 67th Mechanised Brigade in the Serebryanskyi forest in the Luhansk region. Most of the province is occupied by the Russians.

The ground around the road to the trenches is dotted with craters from incoming shells, and charred trees have snapped in half from the explosions.

Fighting of this kind is raging along the frontlines running from the border with Russia's Belgorod region in the northeast all the way to the Black Sea in the south.

Istoryk said Russia had taken "huge" losses in the area; five Ukrainian soldiers in an evacuation team were also killed by recent shelling nearby, he added.

Reuters could not independently verify his account of casualties, but tens of thousands of troops have died in battle over 20 months of a conflict that shows no sign of ending.

Having focused on defence earlier in the year, Ukraine launched a counteroffensive in June in a bid to wrest back the initiative and cut Russia's supply lines by thrusting south towards the Sea of Azov.

Five months on, that objective remains a distant dream - Ukrainian forces are some 80-90 km from the coast, and extensive Russian defences have so far largely held firm.

More dramatic advances are still possible; last year Russian forces swiftly retreated from positions in Kherson region in early November. But offensive operations could be stymied by muddy conditions.

"It's one thing to run 300 metres to an enemy position in June, and totally another when you are up to your knees in mud, warm clothes, protective gear, a backpack with spare clothes," Colonel Oleksandr Popov, an artillery reconnaissance brigade commander whose units also operate in the area, told Reuters this week.

The drone pilots from his brigade appeared less tired than those in infantry units nearby.

Michael Kofman, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the conflict had reached a "transitional phase" where both sides hold the initiative in different parts of the front.

"Overall, Ukraine's offensive in the south has either culminated or is about to," he said.

ARTILLERY WARFARE

Key battles along the front stretching nearly 1,000 km (620 miles) are raging around the eastern cities of Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Kupiansk, while two main thrusts are taking place in the south - one near Orikhiv and another south of Velyka Novosilka.

Artillery would remain a key weapon in the winter, according to Popov, adding that it was more effective when targets were more static and bare trees provided little camouflage for troops on the ground, something that affected both sides.

While the colonel noted a near three-fold drop in the number of Russian artillery strikes in the Lyman sector of the front last month when compared to October 2022, some experts said that both sides had limited stocks of ammunition.

"My sense is that the artillery advantage that Ukraine had for much of its offensive is now going to recede, and that Ukraine's ammunition availability is going to be constrained," said Kofman.

"Russia will also be forced to conserve ammunition, but will now increasingly benefit from the influx of supply coming from North Korea."

Away from the battlefield, Ukraine has sought to knock out Russian air defences, aircraft and naval assets using long-range missiles supplied by the West, hoping that such attacks make it harder for the enemy to support frontline troops.

Russia, meanwhile, has kept up its bombardment of Ukraine using drones and missiles in what it says is a targeted military campaign but which has killed thousands of civilians and knocked out infrastructure vital for heating, power and transport.

Back in the forests around Lyman, Zakhid, a 26-year-old officer, said the next phase of the war would be tough and a true test of character for the military.

"We're exhausted, they're exhausted. But there are more of them, and they have more equipment."

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Putin explains why he ordered military operation in Ukraine

Russia had no option but to launch its military operation against Ukraine in February 2022, President Vladimir Putin said at a meeting with the country’s Civic Chamber on Friday. The Russian leader reaffirmed his belief that the decision was the right one, despite the difficulties resulting from it.

“We had no other choice,” Putin replied when asked if he would make the same decision again, knowing what the consequences would be. He added that “removing the assault rifle covers” must never be done lightly, but said he had reached the conclusion that military action against Ukraine was unavoidable.

“Why? Because we had already been attacked,” the Russian leader stated, without elaborating.

Putin has repeatedly explained the reasons for Moscow’s military campaign, citing Ukraine’s NATO aspirations and the looming prospect of the US-led military bloc expanding even closer to Russia’s borders as major sources of concern.

He has also stressed the need to protect the people of Donbass and end the nearly eight-year conflict that had raged between local rebels and Kiev’s forces. This was coupled with the increasingly nationalist stance of the Kiev government and its treatment of the Russian-speaking population, with Putin previously explaining the need to “denazify” Ukraine.

At the annual Victory Day Parade in May 2022, Putin described Moscow’s operation in Ukraine as a “preemptive” one, again maintaining that it was “the only right decision.” “Russia gave a preemptive rebuff to aggression,”the president insisted at the time, arguing the move had been “forced” but was the only correct decision that a “sovereign” and “independent”country could have taken.

Kiev has repeatedly claimed that Russian actions were “completely unprovoked.” The US and its allies in Europe and elsewhere have also pinned the blame for the conflict squarely on Moscow, while providing Ukraine with massive military and financial assistance.

** US House speaker refuses to meet Ukrainian lobbyists – WaPo

US House Speaker Mike Johnson has turned down a request to meet senior faith leaders from Ukraine, the Washington Post reported on Monday. The group of pro-President Vladimir Zelensky figures is currently touring the US in a bid to convince Americans that Kiev is not threatening religious freedom.

The group is led by Bishop Ivan Rusin of the Ukrainian Evangelical Church and includes Muslim, Catholic and Jewish leaders, as well as members of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OCU) – a government-approved institution designed to replace the traditional Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC), which the Kiev parliament voted to ban last month.

While Rusin has held meetings with American evangelical leaders and Republican lawmakers, an organizer for the delegation told the Washington Post this week that House Speaker Mike Johnson rejected a request to meet with the bishop and his colleagues.

Johnson – who voted against military aid for Ukraine last year but remains open to funding Kiev in future – did not provide an explanation for turning down the request. 

Speaking to the Post, Rusin insisted that Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky is not restricting religious liberty in Ukraine, and that Russian forces are jailing pastors and destroying churches in the Russian regions of Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson, and Zaporozhye.

“Our pastors have been imprisoned in the occupied places, so for us, it’s clear that we will be at least imprisoned [if Russia wins],” he said.

However, American conservatives are unconvinced. “Is it easier to be a Christian in Ukraine or Russia?” former Fox News host Tucker Carlson asked at a Christian summit in Ohio in September. “One of those countries just arrested a bunch of priests and shut down churches with political police and the army. It wasn't Russia.”

In March, Zelensky’s government ordered the expulsion of monks from the Kiev-Pechersk Lavra, one of the country’s oldest monasteries. Agents stormed the premises in August when UOC monks refused to leave.

Authorities in Kiev ordered the confiscation of 74 church properties in the Ukrainian capital in September, with many of the seized temples – including several churches inside the Pechersk Lavra – being turned over to the government-backed OCU.

The US State Department, which produces an annual “religious freedom” report, has never commented on Kiev’s campaign against the UOC. Amid the Kiev-Moscow schism, the Republican Party establishment has also sided with the OCU, with former Vice President Mike Pence telling Carlson in July that “very small elements” of the UOC had been “held to account”for “advancing the Russian cause.”

“I sincerely wonder how a Christian leader could support the arrest of Christians for having different views,” Carlson replied. “That’s an attack on religious liberty and we’re funding it.”

Reuters/RT