WESTERN PERSPECTIVE
Factbox: Kremlin drone incident: What do we know?
Here's a look at what we know about the alleged overnight drone attack on the Kremlin, and the questions it raises.
WHAT HAPPENED?
Two of the numerous videos published on Russian social media channels show two objects flying on the same trajectory towards one of the highest points in the Kremlin complex, the dome of the Senate, with the clock on the nearby Spassky Tower showing 2:27 and 2:43 in the early hours of Wednesday. The first seemed to be destroyed with little more than a puff of smoke, the second appeared to leave blazing wreckage on the dome. Reuters checks on time and location indicated that the videos could be authentic.
WHAT IS RUSSIA SAYING?
Russia called the incident a terrorist attack and an attempt to assassinate President Vladimir Putin, for which it said it reserved the right to retaliate.
Western security analysts dismissed the idea that the attack was meant to kill Putin, given that the drones appeared to have been aimed at a highly visible point of the huge, walled Kremlin citadel, rather than any residential quarters, and that Putin often works from elsewhere. His office said he was not there at the time.
WHAT DOES UKRAINE SAY?
Ukraine denied responsibility. "We don't attack Putin, or Moscow, we fight on our territory," President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told a press conference in Helsinki.
WOULD UKRAINE BE ABLE TO MOUNT SUCH A STRIKE?
Possibly. Ukraine appears to have mounted drone strikes deep inside Russia and Russian-annexed Crimea on many previous occasions, including twice last December on an air base for Russian strategic bomber planes. It typically has not claimed responsibility for such actions, although Ukrainian officials have often celebrated them.
IF IT WAS UKRAINE, WHAT WOULD THAT MEAN?
Ukraine has frequently surprised Moscow with its military prowess, staging attacks far beyond the front lines, but a hit on the symbolic centre of Russian power would be its most audacious act to date.
"If we presume it was a Ukrainian attack, consider it a performative strike, a demonstration of capability and a declaration of intent: 'don't think Moscow is safe', Russia specialist and security analyst Mark Galeotti wrote on Twitter.
Some commentators described it as a humiliation for Russia, drawing comparison with a 1987 incident when a young West German pilot, Mathias Rust, evaded Soviet air defences and landed a small plane on Red Square.
COULD IT BE A RUSSIAN 'FALSE FLAG' OPERATION?
Some Western analysts said it was possible that Russia might have staged the incident itself in order to pin the blame on Kyiv and justify some kind of crushing response. The aim could be "to make Ukraine look reckless, either to weaken Western support or try to shore up Russian domestic support", said Phillips O'Brien of the University of St Andrews.
James Nixey of London's Chatham House think tank said that, if it was a "false flag" operation, "it reeks of desperation ... And it's a high-risk strategy likely to be exposed".
WHAT WILL THE U.S. MAKE OF IT?
The Biden administration has poured cash and weapons into Ukraine to help it defend against Russia's invasion, but would likely be nervous of the unpredictable consequences that any Ukrainian attack on the Russian capital could entail. The White House said it had not been able to verify the Russian claim of a Ukrainian attack, and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Russian assertions should be taken with a "very large shaker of salt".
WHAT IS THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE TIMING?
The incident comes at a moment of high tension and a potential turning point in the war, as Ukraine prepares to mount a long-anticipated counter-offensive.
Perhaps more immediately, it coincides with preparations for Russia's Victory Day holiday on May 9, marked with a military parade across Red Square, under the Kremlin walls.
Some of the videos of the incident showed spectator stands that had already been put up for the parade, directly over the wall from the Senate. Security for the parade had already been tightened.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
The statement from Putin's office pointed to a significant response. Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said it was time to "physically eliminate Zelenskiy and his clique", and parliament speaker Vyacheslav Volodin called for the use of "weapons capable of stopping and destroying the Kyiv terrorist regime".
Western analysts questioned how far it was possible for Russia to escalate, given the death and destruction it has already inflicted on Ukraine with mass missile strikes.
Matthew Ford, associate professor at the Swedish Defence University, said further strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure would be less effective now that spring has arrived, and that disruption to grain supplies would hurt Russia's own allies. He also questioned whether Russia was capable of taking out Zelenskiy. "The closest they got was last spring. How they could pull it off now - that seems very unlikely," he said in a telephone interview.
** Explosions heard in Kyiv, other Ukrainian cities - authorities
Explosions were heard in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv and other cities in the early hours of Thursday morning, officials and media outlets said, with some local authorities reporting that anti-aircraft defences were at work.
Russia has regularly bombarded Ukraine since October last year, striking at a variety of targets. The latest blasts were reported less than 24 hours after Kyiv said 21 people died in a Russian strike on the city of Kherson.
"Air defences are working in the Kyiv region," the regional military administration said on Telegram. Reuters eyewitnesses in the city said there had been at least one loud blast.
Ukrainian public broadcaster Suspilne reported explosions in the southern city of Zaporizhzhia. Yuri Malashko, the head of the Zaporizhzhia regional military administration, said on Telegram that anti-aircraft defences were at work.
Local media also reported blasts in the Black Sea port of Odesa. Air alerts have been sounded in most of the eastern half of the country, according to an official government map.
RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE
Ex-Russian president urges ‘physical removal’ of Zelensky
Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev drew a comparison between Ukraine and Nazi Germany on Wednesday, after two drones targeted the Kremlin. The vice-chair of the national security council urged Moscow to retaliate against President Vladimir Zelensky.
“After today’s terrorist act, there are no options left but the physical removal of Zelensky and his clique,” Medvedev wrote on Telegram.
“We don’t need him to sign [their] unconditional surrender. Hitler, as it is known, didn’t sign his either. There will always be someone like Admiral Doenitz to sit in as president,” he added, in reference to the Nazi officer who officially replaced Hitler after he committed suicide in April 1945 and presided over Germany’s capitulation.
Medvedev’s ire was provoked by last night’s drone attack on Moscow, which Russia blamed on Ukraine. Two UAVs exploded over the Kremlin and the Russian Senate, with authorities saying they were brought down by air defenses. There were no injuries or reports of damage.
Russian President Vladimir Putin was not in the Kremlin at the time, working from another residence instead.
“We consider this a premeditated terrorist action and an attempt against the Russian president,” the Kremlin said in a statement after the incident, adding that “Russia reserves the right to retaliate in a manner, place and time of its choosing.” City authorities in Moscow and St. Petersburg have already responded by imposing a ban on drone flights.
Medvedev was president of Russia between 2008 and 2012, and then prime minister until 2020. Currently, he serves as the deputy chair of the national security council, which is formally chaired by Putin. Despite his prior reputation as a moderate liberal, he has been far more hawkish on Ukraine than the official Kremlin.
Last week, for example, Medvedev advocated “mass destruction of personnel and military equipment” and a “maximum military defeat” of Kiev once the much-hyped Ukrainian counteroffensive begins, arguing that the “Nazi regime in Kiev”must be “completely dismantled” and “former Ukraine” entirely demilitarized.
Kiev has officially denied having anything to do with the drones. Zelensky insisted that Ukraine fights on its own territory and has no weapons to reach Moscow. His aide, Mikhail Podoliak, insisted Ukraine was fighting “an exclusively defensive war” and claimed the Kremlin attack was the work of “local resistance forces” in Russia. The Ukrainian postal service has already released a stamp design showing the Kremlin in flames, however, just as they did after the Crimean Bridge bombing last October – also denied by Zelensky and his government.
** Ukrainian counteroffensive has started – Wagner boss
Head of the private military company Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said on Wednesday that the Ukrainian forces had begun their counterattack in Artyomovsk (known in Ukrainian as Bakhmut) and are threatening to overwhelm his undersupplied troops.
Wagner forces advanced more than 200 meters on Wednesday, sustaining 116 fatalities and leaving less than three square kilometers of the Donbass city in Ukrainian possession, Prigozhin said in an audio clip shared online.
However the PMCs leader then announced that the Ukrainian military has “...begun its counterattack,” with “...unlimited manpower and ammunition.”
Meanwhile, he painted a dire picture of Wagner’s own situation, saying “ammunition shortages are acute” and his troops have enough rounds remaining “for just a few days.”
The Russian Defense Ministry is refusing to issue artillery ammunition to Wagner, “ignoring our every request,” Prigozhin claimed.
Wagner forces have been at the forefront of street fighting in Artyomovsk, known by Ukrainians as Bakhmut, a key rail and road junction in Donbass. Kiev has funneled tens of thousands of soldiers to the city, even as Wagner and other Russian troops established fire control over all the supply roads, leaving the Ukrainians half surrounded.
Reuters/RT
