WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine strikes Russian strategic bomber airfield, triggering huge blast

Ukraine struck a major Russian strategic bomber airfield on Thursday with drones, triggering a huge blast and fire about 700 km (435 miles) from the front lines of the war, Russian and Ukrainian officials said.

Videos verified by Reuters showed a huge blast spreading out from the airfield, wrecking nearby cottages. Russia's defence ministry said air defences had shot down 132 Ukrainian drones over Russian regions.

Other verified videos showed a giant plume of smoke rising into the dawn sky and an intense fire.

The base in Engels, which dates back to Soviet times, hosts Russia's Tupolev Tu-160 nuclear-capable heavy strategic bombers, known unofficially as White Swans.

Roman Busargin, governor of Saratov, said there had been a Ukrainian drone attack on the city of Engels that had left an airfield on fire, and that nearby residents had been evacuated. He did not specifically mention the Engels base, but it is the main airfield in the area.

Ukraine's defence ministry said its forces had struck the airfield and triggered secondary detonations of ammunition. Kyiv said Russia had used the Engels base to carry out strikes on Ukraine.

Ten people were injured in the attack, local officials said. Some local residents expressed surprise at finding various parts of Ukrainian drones in their gardens. The Shot Telegram channel said that Ukraine struck with PD-2 and Liutyi drones.

Engels district head Maxim Leonov said that a local state of emergency had been declared but gave few details. Reuters was unable to independently confirm what had taken place at the airfield.

Ukraine has conducted previous attacks on the Engels air base dating back to December 2022. In January it claimed to have struck an oil depot serving the base, causing a huge fire that took five days to put out.

A Ukrainian security source said at the time that a drone attack had struck a storage facility holding guided bombs and missiles at the Engels base.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Russian forces strike military train with Ukrainian ammo, armament over past day

Russian forces struck a military train with ammunition and armament for the Ukrainian army over the past day in the special military operation in Ukraine, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported on Thursday.

"Operational/tactical aircraft, attack unmanned aerial vehicles, missile troops and artillery of the Russian groups of forces struck military airfield infrastructure facilities, control posts and storage sites of unmanned aerial vehicles, a military train with ammunition and armament of the Ukrainian army, military hardware and materiel warehouses and massed enemy manpower and equipment in 153 areas," the ministry said in a statement.

Russia’s Battlegroup North inflicts 150 casualties on Ukrainian army in Belgorod area

Russia’s Battlegroup North inflicted roughly 150 casualties on Ukrainian troops and destroyed four enemy tanks in its area of responsibility in the Belgorod direction over the past day, the ministry reported.

"In the Belgorod direction, Battlegroup North units inflicted losses on formations of two mechanized brigades and two assault regiments of the Ukrainian army in areas near the settlements of Malaya Rybitsa, Ugroyedy and Stepok in the Sumy Region," the ministry said.

The Ukrainian army lost an estimated 150 personnel, four tanks, 19 armored combat vehicles, including four infantry fighting vehicles, 12 motor vehicles, a Grad multiple rocket launcher and two artillery guns in that frontline area over the last 24 hours, it specified.

In addition, Russian forces destroyed an ammunition depot of the Ukrainian army, it said.

Russia’s Battlegroup West inflicts over 240 casualties on Ukrainian army in past day

Russia’s Battlegroup West inflicted more than 240 casualties on Ukrainian troops and destroyed five enemy artillery guns in its area of responsibility over the past day, the ministry reported.

"Battlegroup West units improved their tactical position and inflicted losses among manpower and equipment of three mechanized brigades, an assault brigade of the Ukrainian army, a territorial defense brigade and a National Guard brigade in areas near the settlements of Tishchenkovka, Kondrashovka, Kupyansk, Novosergeyevka and Katerinovka in the Kharkov Region," the ministry said.

The Ukrainian army lost more than 240 personnel, six motor vehicles and five field artillery guns in that frontline area over the last 24 hours, it specified.

"An electronic warfare station and two ammunition depots were destroyed," the ministry said.

Russia’s Battlegroup South inflicts 180 casualties on Ukrainian army over past day

Russia’s Battlegroup South inflicted roughly 180 casualties on Ukrainian troops and destroyed two US-made armored personnel carriers in its area of responsibility over the past day, the ministry reported.

"Battlegroup South units gained better lines and positions and inflicted losses on formations of five mechanized brigades, an airmobile brigade of the Ukrainian army, two territorial defense brigades and three National Guard brigades in areas near the settlements of Seversk, Dronovka, Slavyansk, Chasov Yar, Konstantinovka, Ivanopolye and Shcherbinovka in the Donetsk People’s Republic," the ministry said.

The Ukrainian army lost an estimated 180 personnel, three armored combat vehicles, including two US-made M113 armored personnel carriers, three motor vehicles, a British-made 155mm FH70 howitzer and an ammunition depot in that frontline area over the last 24 hours, it specified.

Russia’s Battlegroup Center inflicts over 495 casualties on Ukrainian army in past day

Russia’s Battlegroup Center inflicted more than 495 casualties on Ukrainian troops and destroyed three enemy armored fighting vehicles in its area of responsibility over the past day, the ministry reported.

"Battlegroup Center units improved their frontline positions and inflicted losses on formations of a mechanized brigade, a jaeger brigade, an assault brigade, two assault regiments of the Ukrainian army, a marine infantry brigade and two National Guard brigades in areas near the settlements of Sukhaya Balka, Ulyanovka, Dimitrov, Krasnoarmeisk, Zverevo, Sribnoye and Alekseyevka in the Donetsk People’s Republic," the ministry said.

The Ukrainian army lost more than 495 personnel, three armored combat vehicles, including two US-made MaxxPro armored vehicles, two pickup trucks and three field artillery guns in that frontline area over the last 24 hours, it specified.

Russia’s Battlegroup East inflicts 165 casualties on Ukrainian army in past day

Russia’s Battlegroup East inflicted roughly 165 casualties on Ukrainian troops and destroyed four enemy artillery guns in its area of responsibility over the past day, the ministry reported.

"Battlegroup East units kept advancing deep into the enemy’s defenses and inflicted losses on formations of three mechanized brigades, a jaeger brigade and an airmobile brigade of the Ukrainian army in areas near the settlements of Bogatyr, Fyodorovka, Vesyoloye and Voskresenka in the Donetsk People’s Republic," the ministry said.

The Ukrainian army lost an estimated 165 personnel, an armored combat vehicle, two motor vehicles and four field artillery guns, among them a Swedish-made 155mm Archer self-propelled artillery system in that frontline area over the last 24 hours, it specified.

Russia’s Battlegroup Dnepr destroys 90 Ukrainian troops in past day

Russia’s Battlegroup Dnepr destroyed roughly 90 Ukrainian troops and three enemy jamming stations in its area of responsibility over the past day, the ministry reported.

"Battlegroup Dnepr units improved their tactical position and inflicted damage on manpower and equipment of a mountain assault brigade, four coastal defense brigades of the Ukrainian army and two territorial defense brigades in areas near the settlements of Malaya Tokmachka and Lobkovoye in the Zaporozhye Region, Tokarevka, Nikolskoye and Antonovka in the Kherson Region," the ministry said.

"As many as 90 personnel, eight motor vehicles, three field artillery guns, among them two US-made 155mm M777 howitzers and three electronic warfare stations were destroyed," it said.

Russian air defenses down 225 Ukrainian UAVs, five JDAM smart bombs over past day

Russian air defense forces shot down 225 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and five JDAM smart bombs over the past day, the ministry reported.

"Air defense systems shot down five JDAM guided aerial bombs and a rocket of the HIMARS multiple launch rocket system of US manufacture and 225 fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles," the ministry said.

Overall, the Russian Armed Forces have destroyed 658 Ukrainian warplanes, 283 helicopters, 47,578 unmanned aerial vehicles, 601 surface-to-air missile systems, 22,374 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,530 multiple rocket launchers, 22,752 field artillery guns and mortars and 33,083 special military motor vehicles since the start of the special military operation, the ministry reported.

Reuters/Tass

President Bola Tinubu’s proclamation of emergency rule in Rivers State on Tuesday surprised me for reasons different from those for which he has been severely criticised.

The mildest criticism is that Tinubu’s failure to call the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, to order was responsible for the crisis. The more severe criticisms range from accusations that the president has subverted constitutional rule to charges of potential destabilisation at the behest of Wike.

A common point of agreement is that a civilian president should never have to declare emergency rule. That is the ideal. But Rivers State before Tuesday presented a dire and complicated situation that stretched idealism to its elastic limits.

Chaos in slow motion

It's convenient, especially for those who promoted and profited from the crisis, to pretend otherwise. Still, after the 27 state lawmakers loyal to Wike issued an impeachment notice, the outcome, if Governor Siminalayi Fubara had been impeached, might have been far worse for the state than can be contemplated under emergency rule. The proclamation was an unsolicited stitch in time.

If oil pipelines were already being blown up and militants deploying as the impeachment notice reached Fubara, what would have happened if the process had carried through? Rivers State has been chaos in slow motion for nearly two years, the only thriving business in the state being the politics of those who support Fubara and those who are against Wike.

The Supreme Court's judgment invalidated the budget passed by Fubara and nullified the local government election. It affirmed the position of the 27 lawmakers, making Fubara’s government a lame duck. Emergency rule saved the governor from gunpoint, created a pause for the people to get their lives back, and made room for Wike and Fubara to stop and reflect. It’s a messy situation, but the counterfactual could have been worse.

Between Wike and Fubara

Popular media has framed Fubara as the victim of a grasping, unforgiving godfather, which suits his comportment. But during this inconvenient pause, it might be helpful for the governor to reflect on what he might have done differently, something that pressure by those egging him on for their narrow, selfish reasons might not have given him the space to do.

In the public imagination, control of the state’s “political structure” is at the heart of the dispute between Fubara and Wike. Whether that is so, whether it’s about who the“authentic” party leader is, or it is more than what the public knows, Fubara and Wike know. We can only guess. But they both know.

Open war

The open war started after Fubara’s swearing-in when the governor wanted to install his candidate as speaker in the House of Assembly but failed. What was the point of demolishing the State House of Assembly complex built for hundreds of millions of naira with taxpayers’ money in December 2023 simply on the suspicion that the lawmakers were planning to impeach him there? Why did the governor think it was right to convene four of 31 lawmakers in his office to present the appropriation bill and then go on to implement it?

And why, after the peace deal brokered in Abuja, was it difficult for him to be his own man, free himself as the hostage of opportunistic local politicians and self-appointed opinion leaders and implement the decisions reached instead of caving into busybodies in the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) whose primary interest is to continue the unfinished war of the 2022 Convention by other means?

Atiku No 2.

The PDP leadership and their cousins in Labour have never forgiven Wike for supporting Tinubu’s election. They have been quite loud in condemning the state of emergency. That’s their job as opposition. However, if the PDP is letting its testosterone rush get into its head and impair memory, we may need to remind the party how we got here.

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has been quite vocal in condemning emergency rule in Rivers State. In his earnestness, he has forgotten that the government in which he was the Number Two man had a shambolic record of infidelity to constitutional rule. And that is saying it nicely.

One can argue that President Olusegun Obasanjo’s proclamation of emergency rule in Plateau State in 2004, though controversial, was inevitable because of the horrific deaths caused by the sectarian violence, which led to reprisals in other states. Yet, former Governor Joshua Dariye’s suspected links to the crisis made his suspension inevitable.

Bayelsa playbook

Atiku could not have forgotten that when his boss did it again in Ekiti State two years later, it was mainly to facilitate Obasanjo’s hijack of the state for his political convenience after lawmakers claimed to have impeached the governor. Fayose had become a thorn in his side, and he vowed to remove him by all means, fair and foul.

Atiku may argue that he had been estranged from the government then and could not bear vicarious liability. However, he remained a part of the government until the end and must endure its glory and shame.

Or perhaps he would have preferred the impeachment of Fubara from Obasanjo’s Bayelsa playbook? In that case, instead of an emergency rule, Tinubu would have provided a haven where the majority 27 lawmakers would have met under heavy security protection to remove the governor, as Obasanjo did under slightly different circumstances, in the case of former Governor Diepreye Alamieyeseigha.

Amaechi’s forgotten diary

Former Rivers State Governor Rotimi Amaechi, a longstanding foe of Wike, also weighed in, condemning the “power grab's illegality.” He has a right to intervene and speak his mind. However, since he called the proclamation “an affront” to the rule of law and a power grab, it might be helpful to remind him of a typical, but by no means isolated, example from his record as governor.

In 2013, when the position of chief judge in Rivers State was vacant, Amaechi appointed and swore in the President of the Customary Court of Appeal, Justice Peter Agumagu, against decency and the provisions of law. He joined issues with the National Judicial Commission (NJC), which was at its wit’s end to restrain him and keep him on the path of common sense. The state judiciary reeled under Amaechi’s blatant affront for one year, something he now conveniently forgets.

Apples and oranges

Parallels have been drawn between the state of emergency in Rivers State and the one in 1962 during the Western Region crisis, especially as the latter was believed to have led the country down the slippery slope that eventually ended in the removal of the Tafawa Balewa government and the Civil War.

The underlying currents may be similar – local politics gone rogue – but the consequences or potential consequences are not. Constitutional lawyers can debate the legal triggers because of the lack of clarity in Section 305 of the 1999 Constitution, compared with the 1960 Constitution, a pre-Republican document that gave the prime minister more expansive powers.

While the emergency rule in the Western Region was mainly an opportunistic intervention by the federal government to undermine the Obafemi Awolowo-led opposition, the emergency in Rivers State was an inevitable step to prevent a potential descent into chaos, where the governor was not an innocent bystander.

Water in the coconut

Since 1999, two administrations – Mohammadu Buhari’s and Umaru Yar’Adua’s being the only exceptions – have proclaimed emergency rule. Apart from 2013, when President Goodluck Jonathan left the governors of the three affected states in place because they had no link to the crises in their states, complicity has affected the scope of the application of emergency rule.

When Obasanjo threatened an emergency in Lagos, Tinubu said it was unacceptable because he was doing his best as governor to tackle the sectarian clashes in a small part of the state then. In Rivers, the governor is a part of the problem.

Those opposed to the proclamation should say how to leave Fubara in place and extract the water of peace from the coconut of Rivers State without breaking the shell on the head of the people.

** Ishiekwene is Editor-in-Chief of LEADERSHIP and author of the book Writing for Media and Monetising It.

The United States and its allies launched their global war on terror in the wake of the September 11, 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center.

With the world still reeling and rescue operations at the site of the collapsed twin towers still ongoing, George W. Bush stood before the nation to deliver an historic address.

'Our enemy is a radical network of terrorists, and every government that supports them,' President Bush declared. 

'Our war on terror begins with al Qaeda, but it does not end there. It will not end until every terrorist group of global reach has been found, stopped and defeated,' he said, telling Americans to expect 'a lengthy campaign unlike any other we have ever seen'.

Now, more than 23 years on from that fateful speech, this campaign still has no end in sight and the battlefield looks very different.

For years the US and its allies fought terror groups as though they were an adversarial state that could be defeated like any other army - with invasions, airstrikes and men on the ground.

But this conflict only served to fuel the expansion of terror networks which, thanks to the advancement of digital tools and advent of AI, are now so adept at cross-border communication and recruitment that no amount of bombs or bullets can stop them. 

Today, individuals can be radicalised in a matter of weeks and are able to plan and launch terror attacks in total isolation without triggering suspicion.

What's more, the average age of terror suspects is declining rapidly. Now, one in five terror suspects in the UK are legally classified as children. 

According to the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) - a comprehensive study by the Institute for Economics & Peace analysing the impact of terrorism on 163 countries - terror attacks jumped by 63% in the West from 2023-2024 and seven Western countries now rank among the top 50 nations worst affected by terrorism. 

A new era of radicalisation 

The process by which individuals become radicalised to the point where they are prepared to carry out a terror attack has undergone a seismic shift in the last two decades. 

In 2002 - the year after the US launched the global war on terror - it took an average of 16 months from first exposure to extremist content for an individual to commit a terrorist act, according to the GTI's research. 

By 2015, this timeline had shrunk by 40%, and today, radicalisation can occur in just a few weeks.

The shocking speed with which someone can now become exposed to radical ideologies, become indoctrinated and prepare a violent act makes it incredibly difficult for authorities to intervene. 

This phenomenon is largely attributed to the ever-growing array of digital tools available to terrorist groups and the rise of artificial intelligence-powered propaganda.

Unlike traditional radicalisation methods, which relied on terror networks developing regular physical or telephone and email contact with their recruits, extremist groups can now operate almost entirely online. 

End-to-end encryption (E2EE) messaging platforms such as Telegram, Rocket Chat and anonymous dark web forums mean that extremist networks can make contact with potential recruits and direct them to 'Darknet' sites.

These are internet networks that can only be accessed with specialised software, described by researchers as a 'virtual safe haven' for terrorists and potential recruits to access propaganda, instructions and tools to better plan and carry out attacks. 

Meanwhile, terrorist groups are increasingly leveraging AI-generated content to automate and scale their propaganda operations, dramatically reducing the timeline for radicalisation and making the experience more immersive for their targets. 

A 2021 report published by the UN Office of Counter Terrorism (UNCCT) found that extremist groups were harnessing AI-powered deepfaketechnology and AI-generated text and video content to distribute highly engaging propaganda. 

Now, extremist groups are even said to be using automated AI chatbots, often within E2EE messaging platforms, to micro-target vulnerable individuals, creating fully personalised radicalisation programmes. 

Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K), seen as one of the most capable terror groups, now harnesses these tools to produce propaganda in over 10 languages, including Pashto, Dari, Arabic, Urdu, Farsi, Uzbek, Tajik, English, Russian and Turkish, according to the GTI. 

Rafaello Pantucci, former director of international security studies at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), described the E2EE platforms and the Darknet as 'the beating heart of the online terror threat' where recruits can become radicalised and access all the information to plan an attack without ever making direct contact with their recruiters.

The UNCCT's Malicious Use of AI report concludes that law enforcement agencies and terror groups are now locked in a digital arms race, with extremists adapting to evade surveillance tools designed to monitor and analyse radicalisation patterns online, even in encrypted networks. 

Youth terror and the rise of 'lone wolf' attacks 

The scope and scale of extremist groups' use of digital tools and AI to bolster their propaganda and recruitment efforts has given rise to a pair of extremely unsettling trends.

Firstly, the average age of people conducting terror attacks or who are arrested on terror charges has decreased significantly in recent years - particularly in Europe. 

In 2024, nearly two-thirds of ISIS-linked arrests in Europe involved teenagers, according to GTI's research. 

In the UK alone, one in five terror suspects is under 18 and one in five people arrested on terror charges in Europe is legally classified as a child.

These horrifying statistics tally with researchconducted last year by Dr. Peter Neumann, head of the renowned International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation headquartered at King's College London. 

Neumann recorded the age of almost 60 jihadist terror suspects arrested in Western Europe from October 2023 to June 2024, and found 64 percent were between 13 and 19 years old.

'For almost all of them, there was clear evidence that their radicalisation took place primarily or even exclusively online,' Neumann said. 

'What was an exception ten years ago has now become the norm,' he added, declaring we are now living in the age of 'TikTok jihadists' - teenagers who become radicalised online and commit terror acts without any offline influence. 

The last-minute cancellation of pop music megastar Taylor Swift's concerts in Vienna last year constitutes a clear example of the threat posed by teenage terrorists and online radicalisation patterns, Neumann said. 

In that instance, a 15-year-old Syrian boy living in Frankfurt managed to radicalise a 19-year-old man living in Vienna after the pair met on a radical Islamist forum.

The pair exchanged messages in a private encrypted chat, and within weeks the 19-year-old ha recruited a 17-year-old accomplice and planned to drive a car laden with explosives into the entrance of the stadium in Vienna. 

Authorities narrowly managed to avert what would have been a horrendous attack. 

The declining age of terror suspects in Europe goes hand in hand with the rise of so-called 'lone wolf' terrorism. 

The GTI concludes that young terrorists acting alone are now three times more likely to successfully carry out an attack compared to group-based conspirators. 

Unlike traditional terrorist cells, these young extremists often operate in isolation thanks to the ease with which they can be radicalised, the robust network of online support and the access to information and tools required to plan their own attacks. 

This is because many of them have no direct links to known terror organisations and lack a prior criminal history, thereby enabling them to operate under the radar of intelligence agencies and avoid pre-emptive intervention. 

The perpetrators are not just Islamic extremists - far-right, far-left and anarchistic lone wolves are also responsible for committing lethal attacks.

In fact, researchers and counter-terror chiefs now warn that it is becoming increasingly difficult to identify one clear ideology or motivating factor driving the actions and behaviours of terror suspects.

A 2023 study by the George Washington University's Program on Extremism found that many radicalised individuals do not adhere to one strict set of extremist beliefs. 

Rather, they cobble together their own ideas from a wide range of online sources including social media content, videos, blogs, forums and private chats to create what Omar Haijawi-Pirchner, head of the Austrian intelligence service, has described as 'more a fantasy of violence than ideology'.

The UK's 'Prevent' initiative that aims to identify and support individuals at risk of being drawn into terrorism warned of a spike in referrals of individuals classified as having a 'mixed, unstable or unclear ideology' as early as 2020. 

This is yet another factor that makes it more difficult for authorities to effectively identify terror suspects and intervene before it is too late. 

'For over five years now Counter Terrorism Policing has been warning about the number of children and young people in our casework and investigations,' Counter Terrorism Policing Deputy Assistant Commissioner Vicki Evans said.

'While this trend cannot be reversed by law enforcement alone, we must continue to work with our partners to stop young people, no matter their age, from causing harm to the public.' 

Increased terror threats in the West

The countries worst affected by terrorism are located primarily in the Middle East and Africa.

Burkina Faso, Pakistan, Syria, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Somalia, Israel, Afghanistan and Cameroon were the 10 countries that suffered the greatest impact in 2024, according to the GTI. 

But last year also saw a significant increase in terror attacks in the Western world, reversing a general decline since 2014. 

The number of terrorist incidents in Europe doubled, rising from 34 attacks in 2023 to 67 in 2024. 

France and the UK have emerged as particular hotspots, now ranking fifth and sixth among the most affected European nations, with the rate of terror-related arrests in Britain at a five-year high. 

The most recent data from the Home Office revealed that the British Counter Terror Police made 248 arrests in 2024 alone - the highest number of arrests in a single year since 2019.

At least three late-stage attacks were prevented at the last minute, according to the Counter Terrorism Police, with 43 large-scale attacks prevented since 2017.

Meanwhile, Germany (27th), the US (34th), France (40th), the UK (41st), Australia (46th), Canada (48th), and Sweden (50th) all feature in the list of the 50 worst-hit nations globally. 

Sweden saw eight attacks in 2024, its highest number since 2017, and Australia recorded five - the most in its history. 

Perhaps most alarming is the fact that six Western countries that had previously recorded no terrorist attacks in the past five years reported multiple incidents in 2024. 

The increasing number of lone-wolf attacks and the difficulties intelligence and law enforcement agencies face in combatting online radicalisation and the increasing 'decentralisation' of terrorism are believed to account for much of this increase.

The threat from such lone wolves cannot be understated - the GTI report found that 93% of all fatal terrorist attacks in the West over the past five years were carried out by lone actors.

But geopolitical tensions and spillover from global conflicts are also playing a role. 

For example, Hamas' October 7, 2023 attacks on Israel and the resulting Gaza war triggered a notable rise in Islamic extremist terror incidents as well as anti-Semitic and Islamophobic hate crimes.

Daily Mail

The Attorney-General of the Federation (AGF) and Minister of Justice, Lateef Fagbemi, has said that the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike, had no role in the political crisis that led to President Bola Tinubu’s declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers State.

Addressing State House correspondents in Abuja, Fagbemi also confirmed that the state’s federal allocations—previously withheld—would be released if requested by Vice Admiral Ibok Ibas (retd.), the newly appointed sole administrator of the state.

He justified the emergency rule, stating that it was necessary to prevent further chaos, accusing the suspended governor, Siminalayi Fubara, of inciting militants to sabotage oil pipelines.

Wike Not Involved in Rivers Crisis

Dismissing claims that Wike played a part in the crisis, Fagbemi said:

“Was he the one who ordered the demolition of the House of Assembly? Did he advise the governor not to seek legislative approval for his budget or commissioner nominees? The Supreme Court’s findings did not mention the FCT minister.”

He urged the public to review the court’s ruling, emphasizing that the crisis stemmed from Fubara’s actions, not external interference.

Supreme Court’s Findings Against Fubara

Tracing the origins of the crisis, Fagbemi stated that Rivers’ governance had been unstable since late 2023. He accused Fubara of dismantling the legislative process by demolishing the House of Assembly and sidelining lawmakers.

“The Supreme Court found multiple constitutional breaches by the governor. He unilaterally relocated a handful of lawmakers to the Government House, effectively paralyzing legislative functions,” he said.

Fagbemi added that Fubara’s actions, including disregarding the Assembly’s oversight role, led to governance failure, prompting the President’s intervention.

Allegations of Sabotage and Security Concerns

The AGF also accused Fubara of emboldening militants:

“The governor signaled to them, implying he would let them know when to act. A week later, oil pipelines were vandalized. He neither condemned nor distanced himself from these acts.”

Fagbemi highlighted that oil production had risen from 900,000 to 1.5 million barrels per day under Tinubu’s administration, increasing state revenues. He warned that attacks on oil infrastructure harm the entire nation, not just Rivers State.

Justification for Emergency Rule

Defending Tinubu’s decision, Fagbemi argued that the President acted responsibly to prevent further deterioration:

“If he had waited another day, the situation could have worsened. As Commander-in-Chief, he had to act to safeguard lives and infrastructure.”

He also dismissed concerns about the removal of the governor and legislature, insisting that their actions necessitated strong measures:

“This crisis wasn’t about securing pipelines alone—it was about restoring governance. The President’s decision was based on Supreme Court rulings and the inability of state leaders to create a stable environment.”

Warning to Other States

Fagbemi described the emergency rule as a warning to other states, asserting that the federal government would take similar action against any state where governance collapses:

“This is about Nigeria, not individuals. Rivers is today’s focus, but any state undermining democracy should take note. If such crises arise elsewhere, stronger actions may follow.”

He concluded by urging the National Assembly to approve the emergency declaration, emphasizing that the decision was made in the interest of national stability.

The political crisis in Rivers State has escalated following President Bola Tinubu’s declaration of a state of emergency and the suspension of Governor Siminalayi Fubara, his deputy, Ngozi Odu, and members of the State House of Assembly. The move, announced on Tuesday, March 18, 2025, has drawn widespread condemnation from political leaders, civil society, and entertainment figures, who have described it as an unconstitutional overreach and a threat to democracy.

PDP Governors Forum: Emergency Rule is an Attack on Democracy

The Peoples Democratic Party Governors’ Forum (PDPGF) has criticized the suspension of democratic rule in Rivers State, calling it a premeditated attack on the state and opposition parties. In a statement issued by its Chairman, Bala Mohammed, the PDPGF expressed solidarity with Governor Fubara and the people of Rivers State, describing the situation as a “dangerous course of action” that threatens Nigeria’s democracy.

Mohammed accused President Tinubu of enabling the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, in the crisis, stating, “He has become a law unto himself because he was playing out your script.” The PDPGF warned that the emergency rule could exacerbate national crises, deepen mistrust, and undermine economic stability and national cohesion.

Rotimi Amaechi: Tinubu’s Action is Unconstitutional

Former Rivers State Governor and ex-Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi, also condemned the emergency declaration, calling it a “dangerous affront” to the Nigerian Constitution. In a statement on Wednesday, Amaechi argued that the suspension of elected officials violates Section 188 of the Constitution, which outlines the legal process for removing a governor.

Amaechi accused unnamed forces of orchestrating a “brazen attempt at power grab” in Rivers State and urged the National Assembly and state governors to reject the move. He warned that the declaration sets a dangerous precedent and risks plunging Nigeria into totalitarianism.

Nollywood Stars Defend Fubara, Condemn Federal Overreach

Nollywood actress Ibinabo Fiberesima and Labour Party Chair Hilda Dokubo have also spoken out against the emergency rule, defending Governor Fubara and calling for peace in Rivers State. Fiberesima criticized the heavy security presence in the state, stating, “We have finally found peace, and today you come out and see army personnel driving around like something is going on. This is not right.”

Dokubo accused the federal government of attempting to seize control of Rivers State’s economic resources, describing the crisis as a “battle for its economic soul.” She praised Fubara’s administration for improving governance, including paying civil servants’ 13th-month salaries and constructing roads in riverine communities.

Labour Unions: Emergency Rule Sets a Dangerous Precedent

The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and the Trade Union Congress of Nigeria (TUC) have joined the chorus of condemnation, calling the emergency declaration a “direct assault on democracy.” In a joint statement, NLC President Joe Ajaero and TUC President Festus Osifo urged President Tinubu to revoke the declaration, warning that it erodes constitutional governance and threatens the autonomy of subnational governments.

The labour unions emphasized that no democratic society can thrive where elected leaders are arbitrarily removed, and they called on Tinubu to respect constitutional limits and act in the interest of national stability.

Background: A Prolonged Power Struggle

The crisis in Rivers State stems from a power struggle between Governor Fubara and factions loyal to former Governor Nyesom Wike. Tensions escalated after the Supreme Court affirmed the Martin Amaewhule-led faction of the Rivers House of Assembly, which is seen as aligned with Wike. The Assembly subsequently served Fubara and his deputy with a notice of alleged misconducts.

President Tinubu cited “disturbing incidents,” including pipeline vandalism and explosions, as justification for the emergency rule. He appointed retired Vice Admiral Ibok-Ete Ibas as the sole administrator of Rivers State for six months. However, critics argue that the move is politically motivated and violates constitutional provisions.

Conclusion: A Growing Backlash

The emergency declaration has sparked a national debate, with supporters viewing it as a necessary security measure and critics warning of federal overreach and political motives. As the crisis unfolds, calls for the restoration of democratic governance in Rivers State continue to grow, with many urging President Tinubu to reverse his decision and uphold the rule of law.

The Dangote Refinery announced Wednesday it has temporarily suspended the sale of petroleum products in naira, a decision that has already sent ripples through Nigeria's oil market with private depot prices jumping to N900 per liter from below N850.

In its statement, the $20 billion Lekki-based refinery explained the suspension was "necessary to avoid a mismatch between our sales proceeds and our crude oil purchase obligations, which are currently denominated in U.S. dollars." The company emphasized that "sales of petroleum products in naira have exceeded the value of naira-denominated crude we have received," forcing them to "temporarily adjust our sales currency to align with our crude procurement currency."

The development comes as negotiations between Dangote and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) for a renewal of the naira-for-crude deal appear to have stalled. Sources close to the matter attribute the breakdown to NNPC's inability to provide sufficient crude oil due to extensive forward sales of production to international financial institutions.

The naira-for-crude policy, which officially began on October 1, 2024, following approval by the Federal Executive Council, allowed local refineries to purchase crude oil in naira. This arrangement had enabled the Dangote refinery to repeatedly lower fuel prices in recent months, forcing NNPC to follow suit despite margin pressures.

NNPC spokesman Olufemi Soneye neither confirmed nor denied claims about halting the deal but stated the company "remains committed to supplying crude for local refining based on mutually agreed terms and conditions." He noted that NNPC has supplied 48 million barrels of crude to Dangote since October, while adding that local refineries collectively produce less than 50 percent of national consumption.

Industry stakeholders have expressed concern about the potential consequences. Hammed Fashola, National Vice President of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), warned that marketers will now need to source dollars to purchase from Dangote, potentially placing "pressure on the naira" and causing it to "lose the stability it had gained lately."

Within hours of Dangote's announcement, private depot owners began raising their prices, with several facilities including Bovas, Aipec, Menj, and Integrated suspending petrol sales entirely. Chipet depot increased its price to N900 per liter from N835, while others like Rainoil, Wosbab, Pinnacle, MRS Tincan and Nipco also implemented price hikes.

The Crude Oil Refinery-owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) has characterized the development as "the latest ploy to frustrate the Dangote refinery and bring back the full importation of refined petroleum products." Eche Idoko, CORAN's National Publicity Secretary, warned that reverting to full imports would cause the naira to "struggle again" and lead to higher petrol prices.

Dangote refuted claims that the suspension was related to ticketing fraud, calling such reports "malicious falsehood" and assuring that their "systems are robust" with "no fraud issues." The company pledged to "promptly resume petroleum product sales in naira" as soon as they receive "an allocation of naira-denominated crude cargoes from NNPC."

Olatide Jeremiah, CEO of petroleumprice.ng, warned that "fuel pump prices might hit N1000/Liter in the coming days" if Dangote and NNPC cannot reach an agreement within 48 hours. He called on regulators to enforce Section 109 of the Petroleum Industry Act, which stipulates that local refineries should have "unhindered access to crude."

On Tuesday, Finance Minister Wale Edun met with Aliko Dangote, reportedly to discuss challenges with the naira-for-crude arrangement. Industry observers suggest that discontinuing the deal could be aimed at reducing the growing influence of the Dangote refinery, which some downstream players have accused of monopolistic tendencies.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Bandits suspected to be armed herders have struck again in Ondo State following the fresh killing of five more farmers.

The farmers were killed in the early hours of Wednesday after the armed herders invaded a farming settlement in Aba Oyinbo, Akure North Local Council Area of the state.

The latest killing comes about two weeks after over 20 farmers were murdered during a midnight invasion of four communities in Ala Elefosan.

Meanwhile, residents of the state, angered by the development, stormed the Governor’s Office, lamenting the government’s inability to stop the incessant attacks and killings.

The protesters, who shut down the Governor’s Office, also barricaded roads in the state, leaving commuters and motorists stranded.

The Guardian

After airstrikes, Israel says it has launched new ground operation in Gaza

The Israeli military said on Wednesday its forces resumed ground operations in the central and southern Gaza Strip, as a second day of airstrikes killed at least 48 Palestinians, according to local health workers.

The renewed ground operations came a day after more than 400 Palestinians were killed in airstrikes in one of the deadliest episodes since the beginning of the conflict in October 2023, shattering a ceasefire that has largely held since January.

The Israeli military said its operations extended Israel's control over the Netzarim Corridor, which bisects Gaza, and were a "focused" manoeuvre aimed at creating a partial buffer zone between the north and the south of the enclave.

The Palestinian militant group Hamas said the ground operation and the incursion into the Netzarim Corridor were a "new and dangerous violation" of the two-month-old ceasefire agreement. In a statement, the group reaffirmed its commitment to the deal and called on mediators to "assume their responsibilities".

The United Nations said a strike killed a foreign staffer and wounded five workers at a U.N. site in central Gaza City on Wednesday. Gaza's health ministry attributed the strike to Israel, but Israel denied this, saying it hit a Hamas site where it detected preparations for firing into Israeli territory.

Jorge Moreira da Silva, executive director of the U.N. Office for Project Services, said: "Israel knew that this was a U.N. premises, that people were living, staying and working there, it is a compound. It is a very well-known place."

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for a full investigation and condemned all attacks on U.N. personnel. In a statement he said the strike brought to at least 280 the number of U.N. colleagues killed in Gaza since October 7, 2023.

In Sofia, the foreign ministry said a Bulgarian working for the U.N. died on Wednesday in Gaza, citing preliminary information.

US SAYS 'BRIDGE' PROPOSAL ON THE TABLE

Yosef Levi Sfari, Israel's ambassador to Sofia, offered condolences for the Bulgarian citizen's death and said in a social media post that the incident was being investigated. But he added that an initial examination found "no connection" to Israeli military activity.

Israel, which has vowed to eradicate Hamas, said on Tuesday that its latest onslaught in Gaza was "just the beginning".

The U.S. State Department blamed Hamas for the resumption of hostilities and said there was still a U.S.-crafted "bridge" proposal on the table to extend the ceasefire and bring about the release of hostages held by the group in Gaza.

"The opportunity is still there, but it’s closing fast," a State Department spokesperson said, adding that Hamas' response was "totally unacceptable" and that the U.S. stood with Israel.

In the latest violence, local health workers said an Israeli airstrike killed four people and wounded 10 others in a house in the northern Gaza Strip town of Beit Hanoun, where the army renewed evacuation orders to residents earlier on Wednesday.

In Beit Lahiya, an Israeli airstrike killed 24 people at a mourning tent, medics said.

Israel and Hamas accuse each other of breaching the truce, which had offered a respite for Gaza's 2.3 million residents after 17 months of warreduced the enclave to rubble and forced most of its population to evacuate multiple times.

The Israeli campaign has killed more than 49,000 people in Gaza, Palestinian health authorities say, and caused a humanitarian crisis with shortages of food, fuel and water.

Israel has accused Hamas of using Palestinian civilians as human shields. Hamas denies this and accuses Israel of indiscriminate bombings.

The war - the most devastating episode in decades of Israel-Palestinian conflict - was triggered by a Hamas-led attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, in which gunmen killed some 1,200 people and took about 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.

PROTESTS IN ISRAEL

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's decision to resume bombardments has triggered protests in Israel as 59 hostages are still held in Gaza, with 24 of them believed to be still alive.

A coalition of hostage families and Netanyahu critics has regrouped and accuses the prime minister of using the war for political ends.

Palestinian medics said Israeli tank shelling on the main north-south Salahuddin Road in Gaza killed one Palestinian and wounded others while medics and witnesses said the Israeli operations there deterred people and vehicles from using the road.

Hamas spokesperson Abdel-Latif Al-Qanoua told Reuters the effect of closing the Salahuddin Road was a "total coup" against the three-phase ceasefire agreement and a tightening of the blockade on Gaza.

He said the group would welcome any proposal "as long as it is based on launching negotiation on the second phase and a complete end to the war in Gaza".

Earlier on Wednesday, the Israeli army dropped leaflets in the northern and southern Gaza Strip, once again ordering residents to evacuate their homes.

Defence Minister Israel Katz said in a video statement that if the hostages were not released, "Israel will act with force you have not yet seen".

The renewed violence was condemned by some Western nations, including France and Germany, as well as Qatar and Egypt, which had been acting as mediators in the ceasefire negotiations.

Jordan's King Abdullah called for the ceasefire to be restored and for aid flows to resume. "Israel's resumption of attacks on Gaza is an extremely dangerous step," he said on a visit to Paris for talks with French President Emmanuel Macron.

Reuters

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Trump, Zelenskiy pledge in phone call to work for end to war in Ukraine

U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy agreed on Wednesday to work together to end Russia's war with Ukraine, in what the White House described as a "fantastic" one-hour phone call.

In their first conversation since an Oval Office shouting match on February 28, Zelenskiy thanked Trump for U.S. support and the two leaders agreed that technical teams would meet in Saudi Arabia in the coming days.

Zelenskiy asked Trump for more air defence support to protect his country against Russian attacks and the U.S. president said he would help locate the necessary military equipment in Europe, the White House said.

Trump briefed Zelenskiy on his phone call on Tuesday with Vladimir Putin, in which the Russian president rejected a proposed full 30-day ceasefire sought by Trump that Ukraine said it would be prepared to accept, but agreed to pause attacks on energy infrastructure.

That narrowly defined pause appeared in doubt on Wednesday, however, with Moscow saying Ukraine hit an oil depot in southern Russia while Kyiv said Russia had struck hospitals and homes, and knocked out power to some railways.

Still, the two sides carried out a prisoner exchange, each releasing 175 troops in a deal facilitated by the United Arab Emirates. Moscow said it freed an additional 22 wounded Ukrainians as a goodwill gesture.

Zelenskiy, describing his conversation with Trump as "positive, very substantive and frank," said he had confirmed Kyiv's readiness to halt strikes on Russian infrastructure and to accept an unconditional frontline ceasefire as the U.S. proposed earlier.

"One of the first steps toward fully ending the war could be ending strikes on energy and other civilian infrastructure. I supported this step, and Ukraine confirmed that we are ready to implement it," he said on social media.

Later, the Ukrainian president told reporters in a video call that Trump understands Kyiv will not recognize occupied land as Russian.

Zelenskiy said the Russian strikes, which he said were carried out since Trump's call with Putin, showed that Russia was not ready for peace. He said the U.S. should be in charge of monitoring any ceasefire, adding a halt to infrastructure attacks could be quickly established.

The Kremlin said it had called off planned attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, including by shooting down seven of Russia's own drones heading towards Ukraine. It accused Kyiv of failing to call off its own attacks in what it called an attempt to sabotage the agreement.

Trump suggested to Zelenskiy the U.S. could help run, and possibly own, Ukraine’s nuclear power plants, according to a statement by the U.S. administration. Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region, has been shut down since Russian troops occupied it in 2022.

Zelenskiy said Ukraine has begun talks with the U.S. about its possible involvement in restoring the Zaporizhzhia plant.

EUROPEANS WARY

Trump has long promised to end Europe's deadliest conflict since World War Two. But his outreach to Putin has unnerved European allies, who fear it heralds a fundamental shift after 80 years in which defending Europe from Russian expansionism was the core mission of U.S. foreign policy.

Some European leaders said Putin's rejection of Trump's proposed full truce was proof Moscow was not seeking peace. The offer to temporarily stop attacking Ukrainian energy facilities counted for "nothing" and Trump would have to win greater concessions, Germany's defence minister said.

"Putin is playing a game here and I'm sure that the American president won't be able to sit and watch for much longer," Boris Pistorius told German broadcaster ZDF.

The EU's foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said she would present a proposal to European leaders in Brussels on Thursday to provide Ukraine with 2 million rounds of large-calibre artillery ammunition, according to a letter seen by Reuters.

SCORES OF ATTACKS

For most of the past three years, Russia has relentlessly attacked Ukraine's power grid, arguing that civilian infrastructure is a legitimate target because it facilitates Kyiv's fighting capabilities. Ukrainians say such attacks have subsided in recent months.

Kyiv has steadily developed capabilities to mount long-range attacks into Russia, frequently using drones to target distant oil and gas sites, which it says provide fuel for Russia's troops and income to fund the war.

In the attacks overnight, Ukrainian regional authorities said Russian drones damaged two hospitals in the northeastern Sumy region, causing no injuries but forcing the evacuation of patients and staff.

Near Kyiv, a 60-year-old man was injured and airstrikes hit homes and businesses in the Bucha district north of the capital. Attacks damaged power systems for railways in Dnipropetrovsk in the south on Wednesday, the state railway said.

Authorities in the southern Russian region of Krasnodar said a Ukrainian drone attack caused a fire at an oil depot near the village of Kavkazskaya. No one was injured.

The depot is a rail terminal for Russian oil supplies to a pipeline linking Kazakhstan to the Black Sea. A representative of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium operator said oil flows were stable. Two industry sources said the attack could reduce Russian supplies to the pipeline.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Putin, Trump trust each other – Kremlin

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart, Donald Trump, trust each other, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said regarding the two leaders’ phone conversation on Tuesday.

During the call, which lasted more than two hours, the two heads of state discussed the resolution of the Ukraine conflict, with Putin responding positively to a 30-day ceasefire proposed earlier by Trump and agreeing to halt attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure as an initial step in that direction. On top of that, the Russian and US presidents reportedly discussed the situation in the Middle East.

Speaking to Russian media on Wednesday, Peskov stated, “I can say with a high degree of confidence that Presidents Putin and Trump understand each other well, trust each other, and intend to proceed step-by-step along the path of normalizing Russian-US relations.”

According to the Kremlin spokesman, “both today and tomorrow, there will be additional arrangements of concrete dates for next contacts as well as the makeup [of the delegations].” He promised to reveal more details once Moscow and Washington have agreed on these specifics.

Peskov told reporters that given the legacy left behind by the previous administration in Washington, getting relations back on track is a labor-intensive task. However, the two presidents’ “strong will” provides grounds for optimism, the official stated.

According to Peskov, the two presidents discussed Western weapons deliveries to Ukraine, which will “top the agenda of any contacts” on resolving the conflict. However, given its sensitivity, the issue will not be discussed publicly for the time being, the official stressed.

President Putin also conveyed some other “nuances in the context of a potential ceasefire”to his US colleague, the Kremlin spokesman revealed.

Peskov concluded that Moscow is “closely watching whether the Kiev regime will heed the strong determination of the Russian and US presidents to do everything possible” to settle the conflict peacefully.

According to the Kremlin’s readout of the March 18 call, Putin “immediately” ordered Russian troops to halt attacks on Ukraine’s energy sites following the conversation, and also responded “favorably” to the maritime truce proposal, with specific details to be worked out in further talks.

Commenting on the talks in a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump wrote that the peace process “is now in full force and effect.”

Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky stated on Tuesday that he supports a maritime ceasefire and a moratorium on strikes against energy facilities, pending further details from the US.

Reuters/RT

Following the protracted political crisis in Rivers State, President Bola Tinubu declared a state of emergency on Tuesday. He suspended the embattled Governor Siminalayi Fubara, his deputy, Ngozi Odu, and all the members of the House of Assembly for six months. He also selected Vice Admiral Ibokette Ibas (rtd) as administrator to take charge of Rivers State’s affairs pending the suspension period. It is a crazy situation that culminates the months of crisis that has made Rivers State a centre of chaos and endless political sabre-rattling. Expectedly, there has been a legal debate about the constitutionality of the President’s actions and what is at stake for his political ambitions in the seemingly unending crisis. For the next couple of weeks, we can be very assured that we will be subjected to endless analysis of this development on various media platforms. The interpreters of all maladies will turn this development over and over, scrutinising it to death.

As military vans full of armed operatives head toward the Rivers State Government House in Port Harcourt following the President’s pronouncement, some of us are uneasy at this turn of events. One can only imagine what the spectacle of a military takeover even at a mere state level will mean for Nigeria’s fragile democracy. If armed personnel can be brought in to resolve the embattled Rivers State crisis, how many steps before people begin to make another plausible association between a military resolution at the federal level too? Yes, the Rivers crisis is overdue for a resolution, but a state of emergency and an appointment of a uniformed officer seems imprudent.

Unlike the previous instances where a state of emergency was declared, we had just passed a moment in our national life where people experiencing severe hardships made some rather loud and feverish calls for a military takeover. It was just this time last year. Those who dared voice out their desire to see the army return to power were scolded for their deliriousness. They said the military has no business in government anymore forever, and we should learn to stop casting nostalgic glances back to the time men in jackboots sashayed freely on the Nigerian political stage. A mere one year later, and it seems the possibility of them returning is not foreclosed.

In August, some 90 people were arrested because they had carried Russian flags during their demonstrations against strangulating economic hardship, and some misguided ones among them wanted a coup. In November, they were taken to trial although the authorities had to drop the charges of treason against them following the outcry that saw 30 minors among them being charged to court. These are all very recent developments where the present government demonstrated a high level of intolerance against any suggestion of military solutions to any of the crises facing Nigeria. Those who were looking for a coup might have been guilty of presuming that the military had anything better to offer Nigeria, but their agitation against a government that had grown too malicious against its own people was coming from nowhere.

During that protest, the police Inspector General Kayode Egbetokun swore that the demonstrations and the call for a military takeover were financed by some sponsors from “outside the country” and they must arrest those carrying flags to be able to get to the sponsors. He was so sure that “the sponsors of these protests, some of them, have a clear motive to subvert the government of the day; we are not going to allow that; we will defend our democracy”. The same government that promised to defend democracy against interlopers is using the military to subvert a fractious democracy in Rivers State. Do not get me wrong, even though I think the Rivers State crisis has reached a point where something needed to give, the sudden show of resolve on Tinubu’s part starkly contradicts the ethos of a democracy that corrects itself without the intervention of men in fatigues, which this administration has tried to project.

In October, Presidential Aide Bayo Onanuga went on a rampage against a media house that dared to give a voice to the agitation of Nigerians who were looking for a military solution to Nigeria’s economic crisis. Onanuga had said, “It is unacceptable…to incite calls for military intervention based on transient difficulties.” Why is it suddenly acceptable for soldiers to take over the Rivers Government House? Have they concluded that what is going on in that region is more than “transient difficulties”?

The second thing that comes to the fore is Tinubu’s record on a president’s declaring a state of emergency. Again, this is another instance where the bad faith politics that Tinubu has played for years catches up with him. Like his pre-presidency commentary on fuel subsidies and several other economic policies, Tinubu is once again being revealed as a blowhard with many opinions but very few moral convictions. Now that he is in power, his doublemindedness is being manifested when he takes the very actions for which he condemns his predecessors. From his poor record on human rights to the subversion of the ideals of democracy, Tinubu’s presidency has revealed him to be a man whose loudest pronouncements on issues were never more than cynically exploiting situations. For a man who once said that a state of emergency in Lagos would “kill” democracy, he has sure come a very long way.

In 2013 when former President Goodluck Jonathan declared a state of emergency in Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa, Tinubu condemned him saying it was a ploy to manipulate the 2015 election. Just 12 years later, the same Tinubu would go on to state in his speech about a state of emergency that the latest security reports made available to me show that between yesterday and today, there have been disturbing incidents of vandalisation of pipelines by some militant without the governor taking any action to curtail them….With all these and many more, no good and responsible President will stand by and allow the grave situation to continue without taking remedial steps prescribed by the Constitution to address the situation in the state, which no doubt requires extraordinary measures to restore good governance, peace, order and security.

So how did he move from reading Jonathan’s action as a ruse of self-perpetuation to now seeing a state of emergency as what a “good and responsible” president should do in a bad situation? It is tempting to think that he has evolved ideologically and politically, and that experience has taught him practical politics, but I am more inclined to believe he was just a loudmouth who never cared about Nigeria. His politics is, and has always been, self-serving. That is why, no matter where his heart might lie in this Rivers issue, it will be virtually impossible for him to convince anyone of his righteousness. His intervention in Rivers State is far more self-evidently about 2027 politics than his projection on Jonathan. Given how much the Rivers electoral figures tilted against him in 2023, he cannot risk losing that state again.

Yes, the politics of partisanship that makes people question the actions of a leader they did not vote for will definitely be at play in the cynicism that will greet Tinubu’s declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers, but that will not exhaust the reason people will read meanings in his action. It will also be because this man spent his political opposition years blowing ashes into gusts of wind to taint his opponents. Now that the wind of fate has suddenly reversed direction, he is accumulating the same dust and his true self is being revealed. The same measure with which he judged others is being used to find him wanting.

Punch