Thursday, 02 March 2023 06:02

What to know after Day 371 of Russia-Ukraine war

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WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

US seeks allies' backing for possible China sanctions over Ukraine war

The United States is sounding out close allies about the possibility of imposing new sanctions on China if Beijing provides military support to Russia for its war in Ukraine, according to four U.S. officials and other sources.

The consultations, which are still at a preliminary stage, are intended to drum up support from a range of countries, especially those in the wealthy Group of 7 (G7), to coordinate support for any possible restrictions.

It was not clear what specific sanctions Washington will propose. The conversations have not been previously disclosed.

The U.S. Treasury Department, a lead agency on the imposition of sanctions, declined to comment.

Washington and its allies have said in recent weeks that China was considering providing weapons to Russia, which Beijing denies. Aides to U.S. President Joe Biden have not publicly provided evidence.

They have also warned China directly against doing so, including in meetings between Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping as well as during a Feb. 18 in-person meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi on the sidelines of a global security conference in Munich.

The Biden administration's initial steps to counter Chinese support for Russia have included informal outreach at the staff and diplomatic levels, including the Treasury Department, sources familiar with the matter said.

They said officials were laying the groundwork for potential action against Beijing with the core group of countries that were most supportive of sanctions imposed on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine a year ago.

Asked about the consultations, a White House National Security Council spokesperson said Russia's war made it difficult for China with Europe and others.

"It's a distraction for China and a potential blow to their international relationships they do not need nor should they want," the spokesperson said.

INTELLIGENCE

One official from a country consulted by Washington said that they had only seen scant intelligence backing up the claims about China considering possible military assistance to Russia. A U.S. official, however, said they were providing detailed accounts of the intelligence to allies.

China's role in the Russia-Ukraine war is expected to be among the topics when Biden meets with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the White House on Friday. Before that in New Delhi on Wednesday and Thursday, the war will be discussed by foreign ministers from dozens of countries, including Russia, China and the United States.

Last week China issued a 12-point paper calling for a comprehensive ceasefire that was met with scepticism in the West.

The initial outreach by Washington on sanctions has not yet led to broad agreement on any specific measures, the sources said.

One source said the administration wanted to first raise the idea of coordinated sanctions and "take pulses" in the event that any shipments are detected to Russia from China, which declared a "no limits" partnership shortly before the invasion on Feb. 24 last year.

"On the G7 front, I think there is real awareness," a second source said, but added that detailed measures focused on China were not yet in place.

COULD CHINA TILT CONFLICT?

The Ukraine conflict has settled into grinding trench warfare. With Russia running low on munitions, Ukraine and its supporters fear that supplies from China could tilt the conflict to Russia's advantage.

As part of a related diplomatic push, Washington won language in a Feb. 24 G7 statement to mark the war's first anniversary that called on "third-countries" to "cease providing material support to Russia's war, or face severe costs."

Though the statement did not mention China by name, the U.S. imposed new penalties on people and companies accused of helping Russia evade sanctions. The measures included export curbs on companies in China and elsewhere that will block them from buying items, such as semiconductors.

"We've tried to signal very clearly, both in private in Munich, and then publicly, our concerns," Daniel Kritenbrink, the top U.S. diplomat for East Asia, told Congress this week. "We've talked about the implications and the consequences if they were to do so. And we also know that many of our like-minded partners share those concerns."

Among the challenges the United States faces in putting sanctions on China, the world's second-biggest economy, is its thorough integration in the major economies of Europe and Asia, complicating the talks. U.S. allies from Germany to South Korea are reticent to alienate China.

Anthony Ruggiero, a sanctions expert under former President Donald Trump, said the Biden administration does have scope for economically restricting private actors within China and that doing so could deter the government and banks from providing further support.

"Then the administration can send messages to China in public and in private, with the latter being more explicit, that the U.S. will escalate the sanctions to include targeting Chinese banks with the full range of available options," said Ruggiero, now with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies group.

Washington should make China choose between access to the U.S. financial system or aiding Russia's war, Ruggiero said, citing the sanctions approach to Iran and North Korea.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Germany’s army cannot defend the country – Defense minister

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius claimed on Monday that the country’s army isn’t prepared to protect the nation against military aggression. The minister made the remarks during a meeting with fellow members of the Social Democratic Party (SPD).

“We have no armed forces that are capable of defending [the country], that is, capable of defending [it] against an offensive, brutally waged aggressive war,”Pistorius said.

The minister said the Bundeswehr is understaffed and under-equipped after decades of neglect from the federal government. Pistorius added that Germany would have to invest much more in its military in order to be up to NATO standards.

Lieutenant General Alfons Mais, the commander and highest ranking officer of the German army, told the DPA press agency on Sunday that the €100 billion previously promised by Chancellor Olaf Scholz would not be enough to make the country’s armed forces battle ready. He further added that “the army that I have the duty to lead is more or less bare.” 

Further remarks about the Bundeswehr’s lack of combat readiness came from the chairman of the German Armed Forces Association, Colonel Andre Wustner, who claimed in an interview on Sunday to Bild that of the approximately 300 Leopard 2 tanks in stock, “only 30% are currently operational.”

Despite this assessment, Germany has been providing extensive support to Ukraine in the conflict with Russia, sometimes at the expense of its own defense capabilities. Armin Papperger, CEO of Rheinmetall, the country's top military contractor, told the Pioneer podcast on Tuesday that the government transferred to Ukraine two state-of-the-art air defense systems that were meant to protect the German capital.

Berlin’s continued weapon shipments to Ukraine have also been met with protest among Germans. Die Linke (Left Party) organized a rally on Saturday calling for Scholz to stop arming Kiev that organizers claimed was attended by around 50,000 people.

Moscow has voiced its stance over Western arms deliveries to Kiev on numerous occasions. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in a February interview to the Rossiya 24 TV channel that if longer-range weapons are supplied to Kiev, Ukrainian forces will have to be pushed back further from Russian territories in response.

** Russian forces strike Ukrainian formation in DPR

Russian forces struck the deployment site of a Ukrainian Neo-Nazi formation in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) over the past day during the special military operation in Ukraine, Defense Ministry Spokesman Lieutenant General Igor Konashenkov reported on Wednesday.

"In the area of the settlement of Shchurovo in the Donetsk People’s Republic, the temporary deployment site of militants from a Neo-Nazi formation was struck," the spokesman said.

In the past 24 hours, operational/tactical aircraft, missile troops and artillery of the Russian group of forces struck 97 Ukrainian artillery units at firing positions, manpower and military equipment in 173 areas, the general said.

Russian forces struck Ukrainian army units in the Kupyansk area, eliminating 90 enemy troops and three subversive groups over the past day, Konashenkov reported.

"In the Kupyansk area, assault and army aviation, artillery and heavy flamethrower systems from the western battlegroup struck the enemy units in areas near the settlements of Dvurechnaya and Sinkovka in the Kharkov Region. In addition, three Ukrainian subversive/reconnaissance groups were eliminated near the communities of Novosyolovskoye in the Lugansk People’s Republic and Timkovka in the Kharkov Region," the spokesman said.

The strikes eliminated enemy manpower and equipment, the general said.

"The enemy’s losses totaled as many as 90 Ukrainian personnel, three pickup trucks and a D-30 howitzer," Konashenkov reported.

Russian forces struck Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Krasny Liman area, eliminating over 150 enemy troops in the past day, he said.

"Units and artillery of the battlegroup Center inflicted damage on the Ukrainian army personnel and equipment in areas near the settlements of Stelmakhovka and Chervonopopovka in the Lugansk People’s Republic and Yampolovka in the Donetsk People’s Republic in their active operations in the Krasny Liman area," the spokesman said.

"Over 150 Ukrainian personnel, four armored combat vehicles, a Msta-B howitzer and a D-30 howitzer were destroyed in that area in the past 24 hours," the general specified.

Russian forces eliminated roughly 190 Ukrainian troops in their advance in the Donetsk area over the past day, Konashenkov reported.

"In the Donetsk area, units and artillery of the southern battlegroup eliminated as many as 190 Ukrainian personnel, two armored combat vehicles, 16 motor vehicles and also D-20 and D-30 howitzers in their active operations in the past 24 hours," the spokesman said.

Russian forces obliterated an ammunition depot of the Ukrainian army’s 110th mechanized brigade in the area of the settlement of Ocheretino and struck a fuel storage facility of the Ukrainian army’s 36th marine infantry brigade near the community of Novosyolovka Pervaya in the Donetsk People’s Republic, the general added.

Russian forces struck Ukrainian army units near Ugledar in the Donetsk People’s Republic and several communities in the Zaporozhye Region over the past day, Konashenkov reported.

"In the southern Donetsk and Zaporozhye areas, artillery of the battlegroup East inflicted damage by firepower on the Ukrainian army units in areas near the settlements of Ugledar and Nikolskoye in the Donetsk People’s Republic, Chervonoye, Novodanilovka and Shcherbaki in the Zaporozhye Region," the spokesman said.

The Ukrainian military lost "as many as 80 personnel, one tank, four armored combat vehicles and a D-30 howitzer" in those areas in the past 24 hours, the general specified.

Russian forces eliminated over 80 Ukrainian troops in the Kherson area over the past day, Konashenkov reported.

"In the Kherson area, as many as 85 Ukrainian personnel, one tank, three armored combat vehicles, 12 motor vehicles and two Akatsiya self-propelled howitzers were destroyed in the past 24 hours as a result of artillery fire," the spokesman said.

In addition, Russian forces wiped out an ammunition depot of the Ukrainian army’s 123rd territorial defense brigade near the settlement of Aleksandrovka in the Kherson Region, the general added.

Russian forces thwarted the Kiev regime’s massive drone attack on Crimean facilities, Konashenkov reported.

"The Kiev regime’s attempt to carry out a massive drone attack against facilities of the Crimean Peninsula was thwarted. Six Ukrainian strike drones were downed by air defense systems. Another four Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were disabled by electronic warfare systems. There are no casualties or damage on the ground," the spokesman said.

Russian combat aircraft shot down a Ukrainian Air Force Su-24 frontline bomber in an aerial battle over the past day, Konashenkov reported.

"Aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces shot down a Ukrainian Air Force Su-24 plane in an aerial battle near the settlement of Druzhkovka in the Donetsk People’s Republic," the spokesman said.

Russian air defense forces shot down 15 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles over the past day, Konashenkov reported.

"In the past 24 hours, air defense capabilities shot down 15 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in areas near the settlements of Novaya Zburyevka and Golaya Pristan in the Kherson Region, Semyonovka in the Zaporozhye Region, Kremennaya, Rubezhnoye and Krasnorechenskoye in the Lugansk People’s Republic, Novoandreyevka in the Donetsk People’s Republic and Liman Vtoroy in the Kharkov Region," the spokesman said.

In all, the Russian Armed Forces have destroyed 391 Ukrainian warplanes, 211 helicopters, 3,281 unmanned aerial vehicles, 406 surface-to-air missile systems, 8,086 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,045 multiple rocket launchers, 4,240 field artillery guns and mortars and 8,621 special military motor vehicles since the beginning of the special military operation in Ukraine, Konashenkov reported.

 

 

Reuters/RT/TASS

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