WESTERN PERSPECTIVE
A third Russian airfield was set ablaze by a drone strike, a day after Ukraine demonstrated an apparent new ability to penetrate hundreds of kilometres into Russia with attacks on two air bases.
FIGHTING
* Ukraine's military intelligence chief said Russia had enough high-precision missiles to conduct several more big air strikes on Ukraine before it runs out of stocks.
* Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said Ukraine was continuing to shell the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Ukraine denies shelling the Russian-controlled facility.
* Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy visited troops close to front lines in the eastern Donbas region to mark the country's Armed Forces Day.
* Russia and Ukraine said they exchanged 60 prisoners of war on each side in the latest such swap.
* Opposition representatives from five Russian regional councils urged President Vladimir Putin to end the partial military mobilisation he announced in September to boost Moscow's invasion force in Ukraine.
ANALYSIS
* Twin strikes on air bases deep inside Russian territory have dealt Moscow a major reputational blow and raised questions about why its defences failed, analysts said, as attention turned to the use of drones in the war between neighbours.
* Ukrainians astonished the world - and themselves - in 2022, withstanding an all-out military assault by a superpower meant to crush them within days. Now, with the war's first winter setting in, it is Russia that is on the defensive, drafting in hundreds of thousands of reservists to protect remaining occupied territory - about a fifth of Ukraine.
ENERGY
* About half the region surrounding the Ukrainian capital will remain without electricity for the coming days after the latest Russian missile strikes on power facilities, the Kyiv regional governor said.
* Western powers' leverage over Russia has increased with their $60-a-barrel price cap on Russian crude oil, a U.S. Treasury official told Reuters.
DIPLOMACY
* Hungary vetoed an 18-billion-euro ($19 bln) loan to Ukraine from the European Union as its row with the bloc over democratic backsliding rumbled on and the other 26 member states delayed a decision on releasing billions of aid to Budapest.
* The United States and Russia accused each other of not being interested in Ukraine peace talks as calls grow at the United Nations for a ceasefire and diplomacy to end the war started by Moscow's invasion nine months ago.
RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE
The subject of security guarantees can be raised again if the West is serious about it, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov told reporters on Tuesday. Until then, he added, Moscow will continue to respond appropriately to any further NATO expansion.
Talks could begin “when they confirm that they are ready for some kind of more sensible and balanced dialogue in terms of interests,” Ryabkov said.
“If and when we hear that the West really has an interest in this, we will return to the topic,” the diplomat added. “But, as in the situation with the dialogue on strategic stability, which was unilaterally interrupted by the United States, we are not chasing anyone and we are not asking anyone for anything.”
His comments came after French President Emmanuel Macron said on Saturday – fresh from a visit to Washington – that NATO should be prepared to offer Russia security guarantees as part of any upcoming talks on ending the conflict in Ukraine.
Russia sent a set of security proposals to NATO and the US in December 2021, with Ryabkov playing a key role in the talks. Among other things, Moscow demanded the withdrawal of NATO’s offensive weapons from its borders and guarantees that Ukraine would never join the bloc.
In January, the US and NATO refused, saying they would only be interested in strategic arms control talks. Since the conflict in Ukraine escalated in February, the bloc has also moved to expand to Sweden and Finland.
Ryabkov said this would receive a “corresponding response” from Russia. “Do the countries who wish to join NATO need that? Why? This is ultimately a question for them to address. We will draw conclusions for ourselves, as we have done so far.”
The “strategic stability” Ryabkov mentioned was a reference to the abortive talks between Russia and the US in Cairo last month, dealing with an impasse over New START. Moscow suspended its participation in the treaty inspections mechanism in August, saying the US sanctions gave Washington an unfair advantage by preventing Russian inspectors from doing their work. Further talks on the treaty are not possible so long as the US continues arming Ukraine, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said last month.
** The US government does not encourage Kiev troops to strike the territory of Russia, but will continue to provide Ukraine with the military assistance it needs to defend itself, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters after the US-Australian negotiations in Washington on Tuesday.
In his words, Washington "neither encouraged nor enabled the Ukrainians to strike inside of Russia."
However, he added that the United States and its allies were determined to provide the Kiev government with "the equipment that they need to defend themselves, to defend their territory, to defend their freedom."
** Some 47% of Americans believe their government should push Ukraine to reach a peace agreement with Russia as soon as possible, rather than committing to backing Kiev for “as long as it takes,” according to the results of a poll conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.
An equal percentage of Americans told pollsters they believed either Moscow (26%) or Kiev (26%) was currently “winning” the conflict, with a plurality (46%) instead arguing neither country was coming out ahead.
This has apparently affected the tolerance of Americans for continued blank-check funding to the government in Kiev. While 58% of respondents in July said Washington should back Ukraine for “as long as it takes,” that figure has declined to 48% as of last month. The percentage calling for Kiev to sit down for peace talks has correspondingly increased from 38% to 47% since July.
In general, those who believed Ukraine was winning the war were more willing to both support the government in Kiev on a long-term basis and endure personal misfortunes like higher food and gas prices.
A majority of Americans supported maintaining the status quo with regard to sending weapons to Ukraine (65%), and about the same backed consistent levels of economic aid (66%). Accepting Ukrainian refugees (73%) and applying sanctions against Russia (75%) were the policies that enjoyed the broadest base of support among poll respondents.
Just over a quarter (27%) said they believed the US should intervene militarily to turn the tide in the conflict and end the war as soon as possible, while 29% said Washington should gradually withdraw its support for its eastern European ally.
Republicans were more likely to express willingness to cut off funding to Ukraine, with 43% stating that a gradual withdrawal of finances was the best way forward. However, a plurality of independents (39%) and a narrow majority of Democrats (53%) still believe the US should continue its support for President Vladimir Zelensky’s government indefinitely.
Since Republicans regained control of the House of Representatives in November's midterm elections, the party has vowed to rein in spending on Ukraine, arguing Americans have bigger problems at home – specifically inflation, the cost of living crisis, and record levels of illegal immigration at the southern border.
Reuters/RT/TASS
