Senior Hezbollah official survives Israeli assassination attempt, sources say

A senior Hezbollah official eluded an Israeli assassination attempt on Thursday in Beirut, three security sources said, as Israeli strikes there killed 22 people and the U.N. said its peacekeepers in southern Lebanon were in growing danger.

Wafiq Safa, who heads Hezbollah's liaison and coordination unit responsible for working with Lebanese security agencies, was targeted by Israel on Thursday night but survived, the security sources said.

Earlier on Thursday, a Lebanese security source told Reuters that Israeli airstrikes on central Beirut targeted at least one senior official in Iran-backed Hezbollah.

The Israeli strikes hit a densely packed residential neighbourhood of apartment buildings and small shops in the heart of Beirut. Israel had not previously struck the area, which is removed from Beirut's southern suburbs where Hezbollah's headquarters have been repeatedly bombed by Israel.

Israel did not issue evacuation warnings ahead of the strikes on Thursday, which were the deadliest attack on central Beirut since the beginning of the hostilities.

The number of casualties rose quickly, and as midnight approached the Lebanese Health Ministry reported 22 people killed and 117 wounded. Among the dead was a family of eight, including three children, who had evacuated from the south, according to a security source.

Reuters witnesses said at least one strike hit near a gas station and a thick column of smoke was visible. A large fire blazed in the background as rescue workers searched the rubble for survivors, according to video broadcast by Hezbollah’s al-Manar television.

There was no immediate comment on the incident by Israel.

After Israel killed a series of high-ranking Hezbollah officials in recent weeks, including top leader Hassan Nasrallah, Safa was among the few surviving senior figures as the group's upper echelons struggled to reorganise.

The attempt to kill Safa, whose role merges security and political affairs, marked a widening of Israel's targets among Hezbollah officials, which previously focused on the group’s military commanders and top leaders.

Safa, whom Middle East media reports said was born in 1960, oversaw negotiations that led to a 2008 deal in which Hezbollah exchanged the bodies of Israeli soldiers captured in 2006 for Lebanese prisoners in Israel. The 2006 incident triggered a 34-day war with Israel.

Reuters also reported that in 2021 Safa warned the judge investigating Beirut's catastrophic 2020 port explosion, who sought to question several politicians allied with Hezbollah, that Hezbollah would remove him from the probe.

The Israeli military issued a new evacuation warning on Thursday night for Beirut's southern suburbs including specific buildings. Earlier in the day, Israel warned Lebanese civilians not to return to homes in the south to avoid harm from fighting.

PEACEKEEPERS 'IN JEOPARDY'

The United Nations' peacekeeping force in Lebanon, UNIFIL, said two of its personnel were injured when an Israeli tank fired at a watchtower on Thursday at the force's main headquarters in Ras al-Naqoura, hitting the tower and causing the peacekeepers to fall. There were no casualties in two other incidents, a U.N. source said.

The two peacekeepers were from Indonesia's contingent and were in good condition after being treated for light injuries, Indonesia Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi said in a statement.

The safety of more than 10,400 U.N. peacekeepers in Lebanon is "increasingly in jeopardy" and operations have virtually halted since late September, U.N. peacekeeping chief Jean-Pierre Lacroix told the Security Council. That coincides with Israel's escalation of its conflict with Lebanon.

UNIFIL called attacks on peacekeepers "a grave violation of international humanitarian law."

The White House said the U.S. was deeply concerned by reports that Israeli forces fired on U.N. positions and was pressing Israel for details.

Israel's military said in a statement its troops operated in the Naqoura area, "next to a UNIFIL base."

"Accordingly, the IDF instructed the UN forces in the area to remain in protected spaces, following which the forces opened fire in the area," Israel's statement said, adding it maintains routine communication with UNIFIL.

The peacekeepers are determined to remain at their posts despite Israeli attacks and orders by Israel's military to leave, the force's spokesperson Andrea Tenenti said.

Hezbollah said it had fired a missile salvo at Israeli forces on Thursday as they were trying to pull casualties out of the Ras al-Naqoura area, and they were directly hit.

In New York, Israel's U.N. Ambassador Danny Danon said Israel recommends UNIFIL relocate 5 km (3 miles) north "to avoid danger as fighting intensifies".

Danon said attacking Hezbollah was necessary so 70,000 displaced Israelis could return to homes in northern Israel.

The conflict erupted one year ago when Hezbollah opened fire in support of Palestinian militant group Hamas at the start of the Gaza war. It has intensified dramatically in recent weeks, with Israel bombing Beirut's southern suburbs, the south and the Bekaa Valley, before sending in ground forces.

The Middle East remains on high alert for further escalation in the region, awaiting Israel's response to an Iranian missile strike on Oct. 1.

Israeli strikes have killed at least 2,169 people in Lebanon over the last year, the Lebanese government said in its daily update. The majority have been killed since Sept. 27, when Israel expanded its military campaign. The toll does not distinguish between civilians and combatants.

Hezbollah cross-border fire at Israel has killed 53 people over the same period, more than half of them civilians, according to Israeli authorities.

Reuters

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Russia strikes US-made Patriot battery – MOD

Russian forces have destroyed elements of a US-made Patriot long-range air defense system in Ukraine’s Dnepropetrovsk Region, the Defense Ministry in Moscow reported on Wednesday.

The Russian military released footage of the purported strike, showing a Patriot battery it claims was stationed near the settlement of Pashena Balka, roughly 20km southwest of the regional capital, Dnepr. The battery included four missile launchers, the associated radar set, and an engagement control station, according to the ministry.

Footage shows the deployment of two interceptor missiles by the launchers, which the report said had been fired by Ukrainian forces in response to incoming Russian Iskander missiles.

Explosions are then seen in the location of the radar and control stations, and one of the launchers. The ministry claimed that all three were fully destroyed, while another launcher was damaged.

Patriot weapon systems are highly expensive, reportedly costing over $1 billion per battery, and roughly $4 million per missile. Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky has claimed that his nation needs as many as 25 batteries for protection.

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukrainian journalist dies in Russian detention, officials say

A Ukrainian journalist who wrote first-hand accounts of life under Russian occupation has died in Russian detention, officials said on Thursday.

Viktoria Roshchyna, who turned 28 this month, provided freelance reports for Ukrainian media outlets Ukrainska Pravda and Hromadske Radio and for U.S.-funded Radio Liberty.

Roshchyna wrote vivid accounts of life in Crimea after Russia annexed the peninsula from Ukraine in 2014 and areas of eastern Ukraine seized by Russian-funded separatists.

She also documented the nearly three-month defence of the port of Mariupol after Moscow launched its February 2022 full-scale invasion.

At least 17 journalists have been killed while reporting on the war, according to international organisations.

Roshchyna was initially held for 10 days in southern Ukraine after the invasion and had embarked on a new trip into occupied regions when she disappeared in August 2023. Russian officials acknowledged last May that she was being held.

Her death was announced on television by Petro Yatsenko, press officer for the body serving the interests of prisoners of war. The circumstances of her death were not yet known, he said.

A spokesperson for Ukraine's HUR Intelligence Directorate, Andriy Yusov, told public broadcaster Suspilne that Roshchyna had been on a list of prisoners due to be exchanged. She had been due to be transferred to Moscow from detention in the southern city of Taganrog, he said.

RT/Reuters

When the Israeli-Hamas war started one year ago, it didn’t look like it would last long. 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s promise to avenge the deaths of over 1,200 Israelis killed and dozens taken hostage by Hamas on October 7 at a music concert left little doubt it was going to be a bloody phase. But how long, ugly or bloody, it would take for Netanyahu to kill the last Hamas, which was his minimum condition for peace, was hard to tell.

Unfortunately, with over 42,000 killed in Gaza, including women, children, UN workers and journalists, over 1500 Israelis killed and the fate of 101 hostages unknown, the last Hamas is still at large. The war has spread to Lebanon, and Iran is enmeshed.

War coming?

The regional conflict the world had tried to prevent is upon us, and with less restraint and increasing provocation, talk about another world war that sounded farfetched only months ago now seems probable. 

The war may not yet be on Africa’s doorstep, but the continent has not been an onlooker. There have been widespread pro-Palestinian protests in South Africa, increasing domestic pressure on President Cyril Ramaphosa’s government. Art was weaponised in Cape Town flats, with some residents deploying murals and graffiti in Palestinian flag colours. 

South Africa’s case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) has been perhaps one of the most audacious jurisprudential efforts to hold Israel to account. Since South Africa dragged Israel to the ICJ last December and obtained a ruling to stop Israel from potentially genocidal acts, Africa’s involvement in the war by other means has become more salient.

By deciding to drag Israel, South Africa risked bilateral relations of R876 billion in trade. Still, it counted it as a fair price not just to assuage domestic pressure but also as a matter of conviction for ties that run deep and to honour its own historical experience.

Beyond South Africa

Israel has managed to ignore the court and taken advantage of the U.S., blindsided by weak leadership and the November 5 presidential election, to ramp up attacks in the region. With no let-up in the Russia-Ukraine war and the supply chain problems it has created, the escalation in the Israel-Hamas war has forced African countries to brace up.

Egypt has been on edge because of the impact refugee spillover and possible military action could have on its fragile economy, never mind the potential influx of militant Palestinian jihadists. It has resisted suggestions for refugees to camp in Sinai. 

In August, Algerian President Abdelmajid Tebboune promised to send troops to Gaza. Yet, the president and Hamas leaders knew that was only a political statement – Cairo would never grant passage that could potentially bring the war home.

In Ghana, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and Kenya, the sentiment is pro-Israel, particularly in Kenya. Shortly after the outbreak of the war, President William Ruto tweeted that Kenya stood side by side with Israel and condemned the October 7 attack outright. 

One year later, Kenya’s position has not changed, which some have argued is partly informed by the robust economic ties with Tel Aviv, especially in agriculture and the security challenge that al-Shabaab poses to Kenya. 

The authorities believe whatever weakens Hamas weakens al-Shabaab, a terror group that staged more than 10 attacks last June/July alone in eastern Kenya, killing 30 security officers. In Israel’s pursuit of the last Hamas, Kenya feels obliged to take more than a passing interest because a defeated Hamas means less oxygen for its radical sympathisers elsewhere, including al-Shabaab.  

Giant asleep

Nigeria, the continent’s largest economy and its most populous, has offered a muted, somewhat confused response to the Israeli-Hamas war. The official line, worn for use after decades of lip service and repeated at this year’s UNGA, is a two-state solution. That’s also the official position of the African Union (AU). However, the precarious, almost 50-50 Muslim-Christian population leaves the Nigerian government walking on eggshells in Israeli-Palestinian matters. 

It is cautious not to offend the predominantly Muslim North and potentially spark deadly pro-Palestinian sectarian protests. It is also careful not to offend Christian sensibilities in the South, especially a growing evangelical population that considers itself a part of New Testament Israel. 

Over the years, Nigeria has cooled from a radical supporter of liberation struggles on the continent and elsewhere to a somewhat insular patron. It has been subdued by its internal problems of insecurity and economic hardship.

It’s not certain how the Nigerian government would respond to Israel’s current two-pronged war in pursuit of Hamas and Hezbollah, with Iran in the mix. But an escalation might, among other things, affect oil prices, Nigeria’s mainstay, and complicate the already fraught domestic petrol product market. 

Experts have said a repeat of the oil market chaos caused by the Middle East crisis of 1973-74 is unlikely. However, with a far larger population and a barely competitive economy, today’s Nigeria is far from the conditions that made it benefit from the Middle East chaos five decades ago. 

More migration headache

Yet, the price Africa is paying is beyond the reading of its vital economic signs. Of the thousands caught up in Lebanon, the new epicentre of the conflict, many are African migrant workers. Following the escalation of the conflict, the Kenyan government has asked approximately 26,000 nationals in Lebanon to get help if they need to evacuate. 

The governments of Ethiopia (another African country with a significant migrant population in Lebanon), Uganda, Nigeria and South Africa are watching closely in a phase that may worsen the already complicated global migration and humanitarian crisis.

What started as the hunt for the last Hamas a year ago has grown into the pursuit of the last Hezbollah, and now, it seems, to their last supporters as well. However, as I wrote in a previous article, history teaches that war against an idea is unwinnable. Israel’s existence is proof enough if Netanyahu and the remnant hardliners in his cabinet cared to learn.

Untested leverage

Unlike in the 1970s, when few African countries had diplomatic ties with Israel, the country’s footprint on the continent has grown to the point where 44 of 54 countries have recognised Israel’s statehood. 

It’s fair to argue that Netanyahu only listens to Netanyahu. Yet, for whatever it is worth, the continent does not have to wait to pay a much higher price for this war before closing ranks and leveraging its closer ties to pressure Israel to accept a ceasefire. Except, of course, if the closer relationship means nothing. 

** Ishiekwene is Editor-In-Chief of LEADERSHIP and author of the book Writing for Media and Monetising It.

Benjamin Laker

Leaders who demonstrate high emotional intelligence (EI) are often praised for their ability to empathize, communicate, and navigate complex interpersonal dynamics. But like any powerful tool, emotional intelligence can be misused.

While EI can foster trust, collaboration, and a positive work environment, it can also be weaponized to manipulate, control, and exploit teams. When wielded by the wrong hands, emotional intelligence turns toxic, creating an environment where manipulation masquerades as care and control hides behind the guise of connection. The question is: how do you tell the difference between authentic leadership and emotional exploitation?

Emotional Intelligence as a Double-Edged Sword

At its core, emotional intelligence involves the ability to understand, manage, and influence emotions—both one’s own and those of others. It includes empathy, self-awareness, and the ability to build strong interpersonal relationships. When used ethically, emotional intelligence helps leaders connect with their teams, foster collaboration, and create an environment of psychological safety.

However, the same skills that make emotionally intelligent leaders effective can also make them dangerous if they are used to manipulate rather than uplift. Leaders who are skilled in reading emotions and social dynamics can exploit these abilities to gain power, suppress dissent, and manipulate outcomes to their advantage. By appearing caring and supportive, these leaders can disarm their teams, making it difficult for employees to recognize the toxic behavior until the damage is already done.

When emotional intelligence is used unethically, it becomes a tool for control rather than empowerment. Instead of fostering open dialogue and mutual trust, these leaders manipulate emotions to serve their own interests, creating a work environment that feels suffocating rather than supportive.

The Manipulation Behind the Mask

Toxic leaders who misuse emotional intelligence often hide their manipulation behind a façade of empathy and concern. They may seem approachable, ask probing questions about employees’ personal lives, and appear invested in their well-being. But underneath the surface, this concern is often self-serving. These leaders use emotional intelligence as a way to gather personal information that they can later exploit, or to create a false sense of intimacy that keeps employees loyal and compliant.

A common tactic is to use empathy to gain leverage over employees. Toxic leaders may feign understanding or sympathy, only to weaponize the emotions of their team members for their own benefit. For example, a leader might use an employee’s personal struggles or vulnerabilities against them, manipulating their fears or insecurities to ensure they don’t speak up or challenge authority. This kind of emotional manipulation erodes trust over time, leaving employees feeling confused, isolated, and trapped.

These leaders are also skilled at controlling team dynamics through emotional cues. They may shift their tone from warm and supportive to cold and distant as a way of punishing employees who don’t meet their expectations or question their authority. By controlling access to their approval, toxic leaders create a power imbalance, forcing employees to work harder to earn favor or avoid disapproval.

The Fine Line Between Authentic and Toxic Leadership

Spotting the difference between authentic emotional intelligence and its toxic counterpart can be difficult, especially when manipulative leaders are skilled at hiding their true intentions. However, there are several red flags that can help employees distinguish between genuine leadership and emotionally exploitative behavior.

1. Inconsistent Behavior: Authentic leaders are consistent in their behavior, demonstrating empathy and support regardless of the circumstances. In contrast, toxic leaders often display erratic emotional responses, offering support only when it serves their purpose and withdrawing it when it doesn’t. If a leader seems caring one moment and manipulative the next, this inconsistency is a warning sign.

2. Emotional Weaponization: Authentic leaders use emotional intelligence to create an environment where employees feel safe, respected, and valued. Toxic leaders, on the other hand, use emotions as a weapon—exploiting vulnerabilities, guilt-tripping, or emotionally blackmailing employees into compliance. If you notice that your emotions are being manipulated to serve someone else’s agenda, it’s a sign of toxic leadership.

3. Controlling Relationships: Authentic leaders build relationships based on trust and mutual respect. They empower their teams to take ownership of their work and feel confident in their abilities. Toxic leaders, by contrast, use emotional intelligence to control relationships, keeping employees dependent on their approval and maintaining power over them. If a leader’s approval feels conditional or manipulative, this is a red flag.

4. Lack of Transparency: Authentic leaders are transparent and open in their communication. They encourage dialogue, admit mistakes, and value honest feedback. In contrast, toxic leaders often hide behind vague emotional cues, making it difficult for employees to understand where they stand. If your leader avoids direct communication and instead relies on emotional manipulation, this is a sign of toxic behavior.

5. The Absence of Psychological Safety: One of the hallmarks of authentic leadership is the creation of psychological safety—an environment where employees feel comfortable expressing themselves without fear of judgment or retribution. Toxic leaders use emotional intelligence to create the opposite environment, where employees are afraid to speak up or challenge authority. If you feel anxious about expressing your thoughts or concerns, this lack of safety is a clear indicator of toxic leadership.

The Impact of Toxic Emotional Intelligence

When leaders misuse emotional intelligence to manipulate and control their teams, the effects can be devastating. Toxic emotional intelligence erodes trust, stifles creativity, and damages employee morale. Over time, employees may begin to feel emotionally exhausted, confused, and disconnected from their work. This can lead to burnout, high turnover, and a toxic workplace culture where fear and manipulation replace collaboration and innovation.

In addition to the personal impact on employees, toxic emotional intelligence can harm the organization as a whole. When leaders prioritize control over empowerment, the team’s ability to innovate and adapt is compromised. Employees become more focused on managing their leader’s emotions than on doing their best work, leading to decreased productivity and creativity. Over time, this creates a stagnant environment where growth and development are stifled.

How to Protect Yourself from Toxic Leadership

If you suspect that your leader is using emotional intelligence to manipulate or control you, it’s important to take steps to protect yourself. The first step is recognizing the behavior for what it is—manipulation, not genuine care. Once you’ve identified the toxic behavior, set clear boundaries around your emotional and professional interactions with the leader. Limit the personal information you share, and focus on keeping your interactions professional and direct.

It’s also essential to seek support from colleagues or mentors who can provide perspective and help you navigate the situation. Toxic leaders often isolate their employees, so finding a trusted support system can help you regain clarity and confidence. If the manipulation continues, it may be necessary to escalate the issue to HR or higher management, especially if the toxic behavior is affecting your well-being or performance.

Striking the Balance: Emotional Intelligence with Integrity

Emotional intelligence is a powerful tool, but like any tool, its value depends on how it’s used. Authentic leaders use EI to build trust, foster collaboration, and empower their teams. They are genuinely invested in the well-being of their employees and lead with integrity, using their emotional skills to create a positive, supportive work environment.

The difference between authentic leadership and toxic behavior comes down to intent. Authentic leaders use emotional intelligence to uplift others, while toxic leaders use it to manipulate and control. By recognizing the red flags and setting boundaries, employees can protect themselves from toxic leadership and seek out environments where emotional intelligence is used ethically and responsibly.

Forbes

It was anguish, yesterday, as the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, NNPCL, raised the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), also known as petrol, by 15 per cent across the country.

The development confirmed earlier reports that plans were underway to fully deregulate the sector and that subsidy would no longer apply from this week.

However, the complete deregulation effect, yesterday, pushed the price of the product to N1,030 per litre, from N897 per litre in Abuja, while the price rose to N998 per litre, from N855 per litre in Lagos.

Checks by our correspondent indicated that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery price also increased by 8.8 per cent to N977 per litre, from N898 per litre, yesterday.

The latest price increase makes it the second time the petrol price has been hiked in the past month.
This showed that the pump price of petrol has risen by more than 411 per cent since President Bola Tinubu came into office in May 2023.

Specifically, from N195 per litre before the President assumed office on May 29th, 2023, the price of the product was increased to N448 (Lagos) and N460 (Abuja) in May 31, 2024; N557 (Lagos) and N617 (Abuja) in September 2024; N610 (Lagos) and N897 (Abuja) in September 2024 before the latest increase to N998 (Lagos) and N1,030 (Abuja) in October 2024.

The latest increase, which came against expectations that the crude-for-Naira deal between the Federal Government and Dangote Refinery might lead to a reduction in the pump price beginning from October 1, 2024 has left many citizens, especially motorists, in anger.

Checks by our correspondents around Abuja yesterday showed that other marketers have also adjusted their pump price upward, with major marketers selling at N1,040 per litre from N926 sold previously. Independent marketers also raised their price to N1,150 per litre.

When our correspondent visited the NNPC Retail mega station in Abuja where the price increase had been effected, shocked motorists lamented the continuing hardship in the country.

“It’s beyond belief. I have been in the queue for almost an hour and I didn’t know they had increased the price. Tinubu is not concerned about our suffering”, a taxi driver, Usman Abah, lamented.

He condemned the lack of information by NNPCL before the price increase was implemented, adding “they are taking us for granted. At the time I joined the queue, I assumed the price was still N897 per litre. I am in shock and confused.”

At a Conoil outlet, opposite the NNPC Towers in the Central Area, Abuja, consumers watched in horror as the pump price was changed in their presence from N926 per litre to N1,040 per litre.
Close by, at the TotalEnergies outlet, the station continued selling at the old price of N926 per litre.

We’re seeing complete deregulation — marketers

Reacting, the Managing Director, 11 Plc (formerly Mobil Oil Nigeria Plc), Adetunji Oyebanji, said: “I believe the price of PMS has finally been deregulated, and subsidy has finally been eliminated.

‘’Henceforth, the price of PMS will be determined by market dynamics. This is inevitable as the government could no longer bear the burden of the subsidy.

“A good measure the government has taken to mitigate the development is the sale of crude oil to local refineries in Naira at a fixed exchange rate. This will protect consumers from the negative impact of the fluctuations in exchange rates.

‘’The fact that the crude will be refined in local refineries will also save the cost of transporting crude to offshore refineries and transporting refined products back to Nigeria.

“Without these two factors, prices would have been higher. Another thing will be that the incentive to smuggle petrol from Nigeria to our neighbouring countries will be greatly reduced. Henceforth, prices can change at any time, depending on market dynamics.

“Customers will make informed choices about where to buy. Operators will need to improve on safety, customer service, and accurate measurement to retain customers. This is also the time for consumers to consider alternative sources of powering their vehicles like CNG.

“The era of full competition has come to Nigeria. With time, things will settle down, and people will make informed choices. The government should invest in mass transportation, especially with CNG buses.
“Greater incentives should be given in terms of duty waivers on conversion kits and other CNG equipment and vehicles.”

However, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, IPMAN, has lamented that it costs over N50 million to load a truck of petrol.

According to the Public Relations Officer, IPMAN, Chinedu Ukadike, several independent marketers have shut down operations due to the high cost of capital required to run the business.
Ukadike, however, pointed out that the full deregulation of petrol prices and withdrawal of NNPC Limited as the sole off-taker of petrol from Dangote Refinery will open opportunities for competition among marketers.

“We are ready to compete. We have our tank farm now in Calabar and we’re ready to compete and face the challenges that come from operating in a deregulated sector. We also have plans to acquire more tank farms in other parts of the country”, he declared.

It’s an aberration — NLC

Reacting to the fresh price hike yesterday, the Nigeria Labour Congress, NLC, demanded for immediate reversal, saying NNPC fixing fuel prices in a so-called deregulated sector was an aberration.

NLC asked the Federal Government, led by Tinubu, to immediately reverse the latest hike in petrol prices, arguing that previous increases did not produce any positive results, but only made people poorer.

In a statement by its President, Joe Ajaero, the NLC contended that following the logic of market forces, it was an aberration that a private company, NNPCL, was the one fixing prices and projecting itself as a hegemonic monopoly.

The statement, titled “What next after increase in pump price?” read: “We are dismayed by the latest increase in the pump price of petrol. It looks like the only thing this government is known for is the increase in the pump price of petrol without commensurate capacity of Nigerians or mitigatory measures.

“Even following the logic of market forces, we find it an aberration that a private company, NNPCL, is the one fixing prices and projecting itself as a hegemonic monopoly. We challenge the government to go to the drawing board and present us with a blueprint for inclusive economic growth and national development, instead of this spasmodic ad-hocism and palliative policy.

“It needs no stating the fact that the latest wave of increase has grossly altered the calculations of Nigerians once again at a time they were reluctantly coming to terms with their new realities. It will further deepen poverty as production capacities dip, and more jobs lost, with multi-dimensional negative effects.

“In light of this, we urge the government to immediately reverse this price hike as previous increases did not produce any good results. People only got poorer. But more fundamentally, the government should be bold enough to tell Nigerians in advance the destination it wants to take the country.”

Latest increase regrettably ill-timed — CPPE

On his part, the Chief Executive Officer, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, CPPE, Muda Yusuf, said: “The latest increase in petrol price is regrettably ill-timed and does not reckon with the prevailing difficult economic conditions.

‘’It is important to stress that social, economic and political considerations matter in policy choices. Commercial considerations should not completely override these considerations. There is always a place for political economy in the interest of the vulnerable segments of society.

“The Nigerian economy is not ripe for full-blown deregulation and market principles on all fronts. The social cost of such policy choices is typically very high. This is an economy with very weak social safety nets. Over one hundred million people are wallowing in various variants of poverty.

“There is also the issue of policy sequencing. The present administration has presented an Economic Stabilisation Bill to the national assembly. The bill is expected to bring some relief to citizens and businesses. It would have been better to allow the proposed mitigating measures to be activated and gain traction before coming up with the petrol price hike.

“What the economy needs at this time are measures to ease current economic and social challenges; not policies that would aggravate them.

“It is desirable at this time to urgently cut import duties and taxes by a minimum of 25% on all industrial raw materials, passenger buses of 18 seats and above and cars of 2000cc engine capacity and below.

‘’The customs duty exchange rate should be fixed at a maximum of N1,000/dollar to reduce the current prohibitive cost of imports. Relevant legislation should be amended to that effect. This is without prejudice to fiscal policy measures contained in the Economic Stabilisation Plan.

“The government must be ready to trade off some revenue in the current situation. There is a need to seek to achieve the maximisation of the welfare function for citizens and the productivity function for businesses. The government should not be too fixated on revenue maximisation.”

FG insensitive to the suffering of Nigerians— Udoma

In her own response, Charity Udoma, a rights activist, said: “Increment of pump price of PMS at this time is most unfortunate, senseless and proof that government is insensitive to the suffering of its citizens.

The government just wakes up and makes irrational decisions without wide expert consultations and consideration for the citizens.

“It will only lead to a higher inflation rate in the country which will further lead to increases in cost of transportation, price of foods and other commodities, which will also impact negatively on access to medicals, etc.

‘’It will lead to increase in crime rate and general insecurity, hunger, poverty, poor health increasing sicknesses and high mortality rate.

The insensitivity of the government to the sufferings of Nigerians at this time is most unfortunate and only tends to increase untold hardship on Nigerians which is most uncalled for right now. How can we be suffering amid abundance?”

Untold hardship for workers coming — NCMDLCA

Reacting to the development, Lucky Amiwero, National President, National Council of Managing Director of Licensed Customs Agents, NCMDLCA, said before the latest increase in the pump price of petrol, a lot of people working within and around the ports found it difficult to come to work.

Amiwero stated that with this new price of petrol, a lot more people would stop coming to work as Nigerians would face more hardship.

He explained that fuel is the critical factor that is killing the economy because of the way the government has handled the commodity.

He said: “It is that critical factor that has held the economy down, a lot of people cannot go to work when you go to Abuja now, you cannot move around because of the issue of fuel. In Lagos, it is the same thing.

“It is a high factor that is destroying the common man; a lot of people cannot go to work. If you go to the ports now, you find that the ports are virtually empty. Even when you have jobs to do in the ports, you find it difficult to leave your place and go to the port.

“You increase the fuel price, increased electricity tariff, floated the Naira, everything is increased. The cost of fuel is now at par with electricity.

“Nigeria cannot be exploring crude and producing fuel and you now politicize the fuel.”

Impact’ll be severe on businesses -—ASBON

President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria, ASBON, Femi Egbesola, said the impact of the hike would be severe on businesses, trigger price increases and reverse the recent easing in inflation.

His words: “While we understand the complex factors that can influence fuel prices, such as global oil market dynamics and exchange rate fluctuations, we are troubled by the lack of prior notice and clear explanations provided by the government and the NNPCL regarding this development.

“The timing of this price hike is particularly concerning; as it has the potential to further exacerbate the impact on businesses and consumers, especially the vulnerable segments of the population and those on fixed incomes, who are still adjusting to the recent increase in the national minimum wage.

“At this point, the current administration should realise that a steep price hike is bound to trigger widespread price increases, potentially reversing the recent easing in the Nigerian economy.

“The immediate impact of the hike in petrol price on businesses will be severe, with fuel prices affecting supply and logistics, power generation, transportation, and factory operations.

“The cost of doing business will skyrocket, prices of goods will rise, and some firms may shut down due to low demand in the face of weakening consumer purchasing power. Of course, this will be followed by job losses.”

It will further erode citizens’ purchasing power —NECA, analysts

Reacting, the Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association, NECA, said, among others, this new increase will further distort the cash flow potential of many, erode further the real value of the minimum wage and likely increase in general cost of living.

The Director-General of NECA, Adewale-Smatt Oyerinde, said: “The announced increase in the price of petrol, notwithstanding the justification has the potential to further erode the purchasing power of Nigerians while putting more pressure on both organized and unorganized businesses.

“There is no gainsaying that petrol remains the predominant source of energy for many sectors, including transportation and household uses. Thus, this new increase will further distort the cash flow potential of many, further erode the real value of the minimum wage and a likely increase in the general cost of living.”

Also reacting to the fuel price increase, Clifford Egbomeade, Economy Analyst and Communications Expert, said: “One immediate consequence of this price hike will be the increased cost of living. Transportation and logistics, which rely heavily on fuel, will see a surge in costs, driving up the prices of goods and services across the country. This will put additional financial pressure on Nigerians, particularly those already struggling with inflation and rising expenses. For many, the increased fuel cost means higher expenses in their daily lives, from commuting to food purchases, further stretching household budgets.

“Industries that depend on fuel, such as manufacturing, agriculture, and logistics, are also set to feel the impact. Higher operational costs may lead to reduced output, layoffs, or even business closures in extreme cases. For small and medium-sized enterprises and SMEs, this rise in fuel prices could be crippling, particularly in a country where the cost of doing business is already high due to other factors like inadequate power supply.

“Moreover, the broader economic impact cannot be ignored. As the price of essential goods rises due to increased transportation and production costs, inflation is expected to accelerate. This will worsen the economic challenges many Nigerians are already facing, deepening the disparity between income levels and living standards. While the move towards deregulation may foster market competition in the long term, in the short term, the country is likely to experience significant economic disruption.

The public’s response to the increase has already been marked by frustration and long queues at filling stations, signalling growing discontent. This could have political ramifications, as pressure mounts on the government to either provide immediate relief or risk facing protests and unrest. The situation reflects the delicate balance between pursuing economic reforms and managing the social consequences of those changes.”

In the same vein, Analysyt & Executive Vice Chairamn at Highcap Securities Limited, David Adonri said: “There was hearsay yesterday that the government was trying to reduce the price of fuel and to my greatest shock, today the opposite is happening. It is another recipe for a hike in the inflation rate.”

Nigerians being pushed to the wall—ASSBIFI

On his part, the President of the Association of Senior Staff of Banks, Insurance and Financial Institutions, ASSBIFI, Olusoji Oluwole, warned that Nigerians were very angry and being pushed to a boiling point by the increase.

He said: “The sudden increase in petrol pump price is shocking and highly insensitive. This is especially so when a government that has spent one year negotiating a poor minimum wage that has not been implemented is quick to continuously increase fuel prices multiple times.

“This action is capable of creating an avoidable crisis that can lead to anarchy if not well thought out. Nigerians are angry and are being pushed to a point that even organized pressure groups will be unable to stem any reactions.”

FUEL INCREASE 2023 — 2024
Lagos/Abuja
N195/N200 (Before Tinubu came in)
N448/N460 (May 31, 2024)
N557/N617 (September 2024)
N855/N897(September 2024)
N998/N1,030 (October 2024)

Vanguard

The Federal Government, under the leadership of President Bola Tinubu, has secured loans worth $6.45bn from the World Bank in just 16 months.

The amount increased to the new figure following the recent approval of three new loans totalling $1.57bn from the World Bank for various projects in Nigeria and is expected to increase further in the coming months.

This was as the international lender approved no fewer than 36 loan requests to the Federal Government, amounting to a substantial total of $24.088bn within five years.

These approvals, aimed at financing various development projects nationwide, arrive alongside increasing concerns about the country’s escalating debt profile, prompting questions about the sustainability of these financial commitments and their potential long-term effects on the economy.

Some of the projects under Tinubu include loans for power ($750 million), women empowerment ($500 million), girl’s education ($700 million), renewable energy ($750 million), economic stabilization reforms ($1.5 billion) and resource mobilization reforms ($750 million),

For many Nigerians, long years of infrastructure decay and increased unemployment have triggered an increased feeling of bitterness whenever they hear the government’s intention to borrow.

Although some of them realistically agree that resources are thin, considering an outsized population; however, they believe the past borrowings have not been justified.

However, according to an analysis of documents obtained from the international lender website on Tuesday, the international lender has maintained an annual credit approval to the nation since 2020.

A cursory look showed that the lender approved 15 loan requests worth $6.36bn in 2020. Some of these projects include the Nigeria Rural Access and Agricultural Marketing Project with an approved project commitment of $510m, The Nigeria Digital Identification for Development project ($430m), and $750m for the Nigeria SATAN additional financing for COVID-19 response, amongst others.

In 2021, the loan requests were reduced to six projects worth $3.2bn while the nation, under the administration of former president Mohammadu Buhari, secured loans worth $1.26bn in 2022 for six projects.

For instance, a $500m loan request was approved for a livestock productivity and resilience support project on March 18, 2022.  Another loan of $750m was approved under the Nigeria: State Action on Business Enabling Reforms Program in the same year.

Also, $3.9m was secured for the Umbrella organisation to support Nigeria for women’s projects.

However, in 2023, the loan request increased to $2.7bn to implement four projects, namely $750m for Nigeria- AF power sector recovery performance-based operation, $500m for Nigeria for Women Program Scale-up projects and $750m for the Nigeria Distributed Access through Renewable Energy scale-up project.

Similarly, the bank has approved $3.82bn already in 2024 for five projects, which include a grant of $70 million.

This means that the loan amount was $3.75bn so far in 2024, with more credit facilities expected before the end of the current year

The World Bank has approved a series of loans to Nigeria, strategically targeting critical sectors such as economic reforms, resource mobilization, adolescent girls’ education, and renewable energy expansion.

Recall that on June 13, the World Bank announced the approval of two loan projects aimed at bolstering Nigeria’s economic stability and supporting its vulnerable populations.

According to a statement from the bank, the combined package, totalling $2.25bn, comprises the $1.5bn Nigeria Reforms for Economic Stabilization to Enable Transformation Development Policy Financing Program and the $750m Nigeria Accelerating Resource Mobilization Reforms Program-for-Results.

Already, the international lender has received $751.88m of the $1.5bn under the Nigeria Reforms for Economic Stabilisation to Enable Transformation.

The World Bank is expected to approve another loan request worth $500m by December 16, 2024, for the Rural Access and Agricultural Marketing Project – Scale Up project.

According to a statement released last week announcing the latest approval, the international lender said the credit facilities will help the government strengthen human capital through better health for women, children and adolescents.

It added that the approved projects would also help build resilience to the effects of climate change, such as floods and drought, by improving dam safety and irrigation.

The statement read, “The World Bank has today approved three operations for a total of $1.57bn to support the Government of Nigeria in strengthening human capital through better health for women, children and adolescents and building resilience to the effects of climate change such as floods and droughts through improving dam safety and irrigation.”

The international lender stated that this new financing includes $500m for addressing governance issues that constrain the delivery of education and health, $570m for the Primary Healthcare Provision Strengthening Programme and $500m for the Sustainable Power and Irrigation for Nigeria Project.

“The HOPE-GOV and HOPE-PHC programmes combined will support the Government of Nigeria to improve service delivery in the basic education and primary healthcare sectors which are critical towards improving Nigeria’s human capital outcomes.

“The SPIN project will support the improvement of dams’ safety and management of water resources for hydropower and irrigation in selected areas of Nigeria.

“The HOPE-GOV Programme will support Nigeria to address underlying governance weaknesses in the systems and procedures of government in two key human development sectors,” it noted.

The approval, made on September 26, 2024, highlights the World Bank’s commitment to strengthening Nigeria’s human capital and building resilience in the face of climate threats.

Data from the external debt stock report of the Debt Management Office shows that Nigeria owes the World Bank a total of $15.59 billion as of March 31, 2024.

Nigeria’s debt servicing expenses reached N6.04tn in the first half of 2024, marking a sharp increase of 68.8 per cent from the N3.58tn recorded during the same period in 2023, the latest data from the Central Bank of Nigeria showed.

This sharp rise in debt service obligations, likely driven by naira devaluation for foreign debt repayments, reflects the growing burden on the government as debt repayment consumes a significant portion of its financial resources.

Punch

Biden, Netanyahu speak, Israel vows lethal retaliation against Iran

U.S. President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had a call on Wednesday amid tensions with Iran, while Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant promised an Israeli strike against Iran will be "lethal, precise and surprising."

The 30-minute call was the first known chat for Biden and Netanyahu since August and coincides with a sharp escalation of Israel's conflict with Iran and the Iran-backed Lebanese Hezbollah, but with no sign of an imminent ceasefire to end the conflict with Iran-backed Hamas in Gaza.

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The call was "direct and very productive," White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters, while acknowledging the two leaders have disagreements and are open about them.

The Middle East has been on edge awaiting Israel's response to a missile attack last week that Tehran carried out in retaliation for Israel's military escalation in Lebanon. The Iranian attack ultimately killed no one in Israel.

After describing Iran's Oct. 1 missile attack as a failure, Gallant said in a video issued by his office after the Biden-Netanyahu call had ended: "Whoever attacks us will be hurt and will pay a price. Our attack will be deadly, precise and above all surprising, they will not understand what happened and how it happened, they will see the results."

Netanyahu has promised that arch-foe Iran will pay for its missile attack, while Tehran has said any retaliation would be met with vast destruction, raising fears of a wider war in the oil-producing region which could draw in the United States.

The United States has said it supports Israel going after Iran-backed targets like Hezbollah and Hamas but has tried, unsuccessfully, to stem rising conflict, to broker a ceasefire in Gaza and to persuade Israel to curb rocket attacks on residential areas that have killed thousands of people.

Relations between Biden and Netanyahu have been tense, strained over the Israeli leader’s handling of the war in Gaza and the conflict with Hezbollah. Israel has said it will pursue its military operations until Israelis are safe.

In "War," a book out next week, journalist Bob Woodward reports that Biden regularly accused Netanyahu of having no strategy, and shouted "Bibi, what the fuck?" at him in July, after Israeli strikes near Beirut and in Iran.

Asked about the book, one U.S. official familiar with the two leaders' past interactions said Biden has used sharp, direct, unfiltered and colorful language both with and about Netanyahu while in office.

Wednesday's call was "a positive call, and we appreciate the support of the U.S.," Israel's U.N. Ambassador Danny Danon told reporters.

"And as we stated earlier, Israel will retaliate for the attack ... We will choose the locations. It will be painful for the Iranian regime," Danon said.

Gallant canceled a Wednesday visit to the Pentagon, the Pentagon said. Gallant said in a statement he had postponed the visit at Netanyahu's request until after the prime minister spoke with Biden.

Tensions have increased in recent weeks as U.S. officials were repeatedly blindsided by Israeli actions, according to a person familiar with the matter. These included Israel's killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and the detonation of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah members in Lebanon that Israel has neither confirmed nor denied carrying out.

Israel has also been slow to share details of its planning for retaliation against Iran's ballistic missile attack, the person said.

Biden said last Friday he would think about alternatives to striking Iranian oil fields if he were in Israel's shoes, adding he thought Israel had not concluded how to respond to Iran. Last week, he also said he would not support Israel striking Iranian nuclear sites.

ELECTION ISSUE

Biden has been hit by sharp criticism from international partners as well as members of his own Democratic Party over his inability to use leverage, including the U.S. role as Israel’s chief arms supplier, to curb Netanyahu's attacks.

By extension, Kamala Harris, Biden's vice president and the Democrats' presidential candidate in the Nov. 5 election, has been challenged to defend the administration's policy on the campaign trail. Harris joined the call with Biden and Netanyahu, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Some Arab American voters in Michigan are backing independent candidate Jill Stein, a move that could cost Harris the battleground state and perhaps the White House in a race with Republican former President Donald Trump that opinion polls show to be very tight.

Harris is trailing Trump in Michigan with 47% of voters to his 50%, new Quinnipiac University polling showed on Wednesday. In a Sept. 18 poll, Harris held 50% of the vote and Trump 45%.

Israel and Netanyahu in particular have faced widespread condemnationover the nearly 42,000 Palestinians killed in the Gaza war, according to the Palestinian health ministry in Hamas-ruled Gaza, and the deaths of over 2,000 people in Lebanon.

Israel says it is defending itself after Hamas militants attacked southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies, and from attacks by other militants including Hezbollah who support Hamas.

Reuters

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine is receiving chemical weapons from the West – Moscow

The collective West has been facilitating the supply of banned toxic chemicals to Kiev to be used as chemical weaponry on the frontlines, the Russian Embassy in the UK has said.

The mission made the remarks on Tuesday, responding to a new round of sanctions imposed by London. The restrictions target Russia’s Radiological Chemical and Biological Defense Forces (RChBZ) and its head, Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, with the British government accusing Moscow of “flagrant violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC).”

The mission strongly rejected the accusations, pointing out that Moscow destroyed its chemical arsenal years ago, with the process overseen by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW).

“Russia strictly adheres to the norms of international law, including the provisions of the Geneva Conventions and the Chemical Weapons Convention. There are no chemical weapons in the arsenals of our Armed Forces, which has been confirmed by international inspections,” the mission said.

In reality, London’s accusations were intended to divert attention from the numerous instances of use of chemical weapons by Kiev’s forces during the conflict against Moscow, the embassy suggested.

“By groundlessly accusing Russia, they are keeping silent confirmed facts of the use of prohibited toxic substances and chemical agents by the Kiev regime forces,” it stated, accusing the collective West of facilitating the supply of such toxins to Ukrainian troops.

The new British restrictions and the exchange of accusations come a day after General Kirillov accused Kiev of making extensive preparations for “false flag attacks aimed at accusing Russia of using toxic substances during the special military operation.” The ‘proof’ resulting from the false flag operations would then be provided to OPCW officials.

Kirillov said Moscow had registered some 400 cases in which Ukraine had used riot-control chemical agents. While used in policing, such agents qualify as chemical weapons in warfare and, therefore, are prohibited.

The general also accused Ukraine of deploying chemical weapons disguised as smoke bombs during its ongoing incursion into Russia’s Kursk Region. The munitions were used in the Russian town of Sudzha in August, with more than 20 people exposed to the toxins during the attack.

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukrainian drone strikes another arms depot inside Russia, officials say

A Ukrainian drone struck an important arms depot inside Russia, the Ukraine military said Wednesday, three weeks after another drone blasted a major Russian armory and three days after a drone smashed into a key oil terminal in Russia-occupied Crimea.

The Tuesday night strike targeted an arsenal in Russia’s Bryansk border region where missiles and artillery munitions were stored, including some that had been delivered by North Korea, a Ukrainian General Staff statement said.

Hugely powerful glide bombs that have terrorized civilian areas of Ukraine and bludgeoned Ukrainian army defenses were also kept at the arsenal, located 115 kilometers (70 miles) from the Ukrainian border, and some of the ammunition was stored in the open, it said.

“Striking such arsenals creates serious logistical problems for the Russian army, thus significantly reducing (its) offensive capabilities,” the statement said.

Russia is expending enormous amounts of ammunition as it makes its advantage in artillery shells felt on the battlefield in a war of attrition that is approaching its 1,000-day milestone next month.

Its slow but relentless drive deeper into Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region is stretching Ukraine’s resources just as some of Kyiv’s key Western partners are being distracted by domestic concerns and Middle East wars.

Ukraine is building up its own arms industry, and authorities have identified drones as an important aspect of that.

“Among the key areas identified are drones for our army, and this should be a supply that not only constantly increases in volume, but also evolves and develops in line with the demands of war,” Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a video address late Tuesday about weapons production.

The Russian military has also improved its drones’ capabilities and expanded their use.

Russian drones targeted Ukraine’s southern Odesa region for the third night in a row on Tuesday, injuring five people, regional Gov. Oleh Kiper said.

However, Ukraine’s air defenses have proved resilient against drones. The Ukrainian air force said Wednesday it shot down 21 out of 22 drones that Russia launched over three Ukrainian regions.

RT/AP

When one of the Afenifere chieftains who had gone to commiserate with Pastor Enoch Adeboye over the death of the son reported that the man showed them a video of Sunday Igboho insulting him, it occurred to me how much this big man of God is affected by public opinion. Otherwise, why would someone like Adeboye care about the opinion of someone like Igboho that he would justify his politics? Some people’s criticism of you should always fly beneath the radar of your notice. For Adeboye to pay attention to critics, to the point of even singling out an acerbic individual, something has shifted in the social culture.

For a society that lacks a culture of accountability, the internet has made imperviousness to the critics harder. So much has the internet shrunk the social distance that the influential class must now deal with a plebian public whose existence they would not have been aware of before the age of Web 2.0. From the political class who will send the police after you over social media comments, to Nobel Laureates and even megachurch pastors, the internet has bent the hierarchical relations of power between the big man and the small fries. The radicalism the internet allows is both the anarchist’s ideal universe and the conservative’s nightmare. No one is spared criticism or ridicule in the internet’s court of public opinion.

Someone like Adeboye has greatly suffered on the internet and in many cases, his own words were parsed to convict him. Things pastors used to say within the confines of their churches now hit the internet and make them sound unreasonable.

Take, for example, the story Adeboye told of the billionaires in his church who paid “hefty” tithes and demanded a monthly account of how the money was being spent. He said he did not find a biblical justification for their request, and those people suffered severe repercussions for daring to challenge him. A story like that tells you so much about Nigeria’s culture of underdevelopment. The RCCG churches in the USA, do they not give regular account to their congregation? If the IRS demands to see their accounts, will Adeboye tell them there is no basis for giving in to such request? Their society is organised, and their God is not so shady that he would destroy people for making reasonable requests.

Adeboye’s recent admission of doctrinal error over tithes is another victory for the internet. Daddy Freeze (Ifedayo Olarinde), who galvanised other disgruntled elements over the issue of tithes should be proud of what he has achieved. When he began to claim the doctrine of tithe as preached in the contemporary Pentecostal church was unbiblical, hardly any famous Pentecostal pastor did not demystify himself just to attack him—a mere individual. Yet, no matter how much they spun it, nobody who has read the Bible or history books properly would ever agree that tithes can buy you eternity or a good life. That is a transactional gospel, tantamount to the Catholic Church’s selling indulgences in the Middle Ages.

By publicly apologising, Adeboye joins the league of famous prosperity gospel preachers like Benny Hinn and Creflo Dollar who have also admitted their errors over tithes. Except that Adeboye’s apology came across as a non-apology. He could have stopped at saying he was wrong, but no, he still dug further by saying “ten percent was for beginners” and people should “give violently” (what does that even mean?). He could have stayed focused and stopped putting percentages on people’s money.

It would be setting the bar too low to applaud Adeboye for making the minimum effort of apologising. Merely saying “sorry” is the easy part. The real test of Adeboye’s remorse and integrity on this matter would be him dedicating himself to undoing the structures that the wrong doctrines have created within the RCCG and across denominations where people have looked up to him. The doctrinal and administrative mechanisms for milking people of their money must also be systematically dismantled. He must actively preach against a religion where the things of God have become commodities to be purchased, and where worship means nothing without money.

Through the legitimacy tithe sermons like Adeboye’s provide, some preachers have run amok with a transactional gospel that sometimes even puts Adeboye up as the quintessence of the truth of such theology. Even some preachers whose sons have become ministers actively carry on with the same doctrine of give! give! give! as if that is all there is to religion.

Things are so bad in some Pentecostal churches that preachers now claim that Adam was sent out of the garden because he did not pay tithes, or that Job faced tribulations because of tithes. By what theological permutation does one even arrive at such a twisted conclusion? Some of these preachers forget that some of us can read the Bible for ourselves, and we have access to a wide variety of literature written by erudite people against which we can crosscheck their preaching. Like the Berean church, we can study to discern and reject nonsense. Thanks to social media, we can also broadcast our dissent.

Let me preempt those about to tell us to mind our business because tithe and Adeboye’s doctrinal errancy are a family affair. First, you are mistaken because there is something called “a matter of public interest.” Look it up on Google. A society where your preachers teach that God punishes people for asking a pastor to give account is one where politicians too will adopt the same standard. Second, tithes and the religious relationship they spawn are transactions of faith. The people who seek refuge from a troubled world in the church give in good faith; the tithe-hustling pastors who manipulate them into giving what they cannot legitimately afford confront them with bad faith. Society itself is built on the infrastructure of faith; whether you are a believer or not, we all have the collective responsibility to ensure that people’s faith in certain institutions are not abused. Looking away from the abuse of faith in religious institution is one step away from looking away from similar abuses in the integrity of healthcare, banking, educational, and other social systems.

Finally, I must restate that the issue at stake is not whether people should give to churches. Worldwide, non-profit organizations rely on public donations to run. Personally, I would not mind giving to my former university, but nobody has ever asked. As far as I know, no Vice Chancellor has taken the initiative to create a scheme that allows regular donations from alumni. The result is that outside churches that have created such a structure, our part of the world hardly makes public donations. What we do is more at a personal level rather than institutional. It is a culture that has both its good sides and its shortcomings.

If you belong to a church or similar community, you should give to support them. Churches need regular donations to operate. Many local churches have social welfare projects, and their efforts are why society has not broken down entirely in this Tinubu economy. Their efforts might be invisible to the public, but they have helped families pay house rent and school fees, sent food items, and even paid hospital bills. All these they do in addition to other moral support they provide. Initiatives like that deserve support, and whoever is led to give to support should do so. What is unacceptable is making exaggerated promises to get more money out of people. No, God will not make you billionaires because you paid tithe. And no, your life is not guaranteed because you paid tithe. Pastors who espouse that logic are no different from money ritualists.

Punch

Mark Travers

Mental models are cognitive frameworks or representations that help individuals understand and interpret the world around them. They are the mental shortcuts or simplified versions of reality that people use to process information, make decisions and solve problems. Mental models influence how we perceive situations, predict outcomes and decide on courses of action.

Here are two essential mental models for making intelligent decisions and how to use them effectively.

1. Probabilistic Thinking

Probabilistic thinking is a mental model that involves making decisions based on the likelihood of various outcomes rather than certainty. Instead of thinking in absolute terms (e.g., something will or will not happen), probabilistic thinking assesses the probability or chance of different scenarios occurring. It involves:

• Assessing likelihoods. Estimating the probability of various outcomes based on available data or past experiences.
• Considering multiple scenarios. Evaluating several possible futures rather than focusing on a single expected result.
• Weighing risks and benefits. Making decisions by comparing the potential gains and losses of different actions, accounting for their likelihood.
• Avoiding certainty bias. Recognizing that few things are guaranteed and embracing uncertainty as a part of decision-making.

For instance, a manager estimates a 70% chance of completing a challenging project on time but acknowledges a 30% risk of delays due to potential issues. By evaluating these probabilities, the manager chooses to proceed with the project while implementing contingency plans, such as reallocating resources or adjusting timelines, to mitigate risks and increase the likelihood of success.

Even after years of studying probability, individuals struggle to apply probabilistic thinking in real-life situations, suggests a 2023 studypublished in the International Journal of Studies in Education and Science. It reveals that people often struggle with correctly applying probabilistic reasoning in uncertain situations, leading to errors such as:

• Overconfidence. Participants often relied on their previous experiences without critically analyzing all possibilities. They assumed that they had equal chances of winning or making the right choice without considering the actual probabilities.
• Habitual decision-making. Many decisions were made based on habit or past experiences rather than a rational evaluation of the options available. This led them to make choices without assessing the consequences of each possibility.
• Equiprobability fallacy. Participants exhibited a common misconception that all random events or outcomes have an equal probability of occurring, even when this was not the case.
• Difficulty in analyzing probabilities. Participants struggled to identify and evaluate all possible outcomes in uncertain situations, which affected their ability to make informed decisions.

The study suggests a cross-examination approach that involves using targeted, critical questions to assess and challenge individuals’ reasoning and decision-making processes. It requires participants to explain and justify their choices in uncertain situations, often prompting them to reconsider their initial assumptions and explore all possible outcomes.

2. Second-Order Thinking

Second-order thinking is a mental model that involves looking beyond the immediate effects of a decision to consider its longer-term and indirect consequences. Instead of just asking, “what will happen if I do this?” it also asks, “and then what?”

This approach helps anticipate potential ripple effects, make more intelligent, strategic decisions that others might overlook and avoid unintended consequences. It involves:

• Assessing long-term impacts and avoiding short-term traps.Assessing how a decision will affect future outcomes and scenarios over time and focusing on choosing options that may not provide immediate rewards but may lead to better long-term results.
• Recognizing chain reactions.Understanding that one action can set off a chain of interconnected events or outcomes.
• System interactions. Considering how various elements within a system will respond and interact with each other due to a decision.

When it comes to decision-making, choose options that not only have immediate benefits (first-order effects) but also continue to provide positive outcomes when you consider the long-term and indirect consequences (second-order and third-order effects).

In other words, a good decision remains beneficial even when you think through its future impacts and ripple effects over time. For instance, hiring unsuitable employees may solve immediate staffing needs (first-order effect), but it can lead to significant long-term issues.

Poor hires often result in lower productivity, reduced team morale and increased turnover, which disrupts business operations (second-order effect). Over time, this can damage the company’s reputation, making it harder to attract top talent and increasing hiring and training costs (third-order effect). Ultimately, these compounded issues can hinder the company’s growth and profitability in the long term.

By integrating these mental models into your daily decision-making, you’ll not only make more intelligent choices but also develop a deeper understanding of the complexities behind each decision and what it entails.

Forbes