Israel's demining near Golan signals wider front against Hezbollah, sources say

In a sign Israel may expand its ground operations against Hezbollah while bolstering its own defences, its troops have cleared landmines and established new barriers on the frontier between the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and a demilitarised strip bordering Syria, security sources and analysts said.

The move suggests Israel may seek to strike Hezbollah for the first time from further east along Lebanon's border, at the same time creating a secure area from which it can freely reconnoitre the armed group and prevent infiltration, the sources said.

While demining activity has been reported, sources who spoke to Reuters - including a Syrian soldier stationed in south Syria, a Lebanese security official and a U.N. peacekeeping official - revealed additional unreported details that showed Israel was moving the fence separating the DMZ towards the Syrian side and digging more fortifications in the area.

Military action involving raids from the Israeli-occupied Golan and possibly from the demilitarised zone that separates it from Syrian territory could widen the conflict pitting Israel against Hezbollah and its ally Hamas that has already drawn in Iran and risks sucking in the U.S.

Israel has been trading fire with Tehran-backed Hezbollah since the group began launching missiles across Lebanon's border in support of Hamas after its deadly attack on southern Israel triggered Israel's military campaign on Gaza.

Now, in addition to Israeli aerial strikes that have caused Hezbollah significant damage in the past month, the group is under Israeli ground assault from the south and faces Israeli naval shelling from the Mediterranean to the west.

By extending its front in the east, Israel could tighten its squeeze on Hezbollah's arms supply routes, some of which cut across Syria, Lebanon's eastern neighbour and an ally of Iran.

Navvar Saban, a conflict analyst at the Istanbul-based Harmoon Center, said the operations in the Golan, a hilly, 1,200 square km (460 square mile) plateau that also overlooks Lebanon and borders Jordan, appeared to be an attempt to "prepare the groundwork" for a broader offensive in Lebanon.

"Everything happening in Syria is to serve Israel's strategy in Lebanon - hitting supply routes, hitting warehouses, hitting people linked to the supply lines to Hezbollah," he said.

Israel's mine removal and engineering works have accelerated in recent weeks, according to a Syrian intelligence officer, a Syrian soldier positioned in southern Syria, and three senior Lebanese security sources who spoke to Reuters for this story.

FORTIFICATIONS

Israeli tanks have at times briefly entered Syrian territory east of the U.N.-monitored buffer zone to lend security support to bulldozers setting up what appeared to be a new security fence in the demilitarized area, according to the soldier and a regional intelligence source.

The sources said the demining had intensified as Israel began ground incursions on Oct. 1 to fight Hezbollah along the mountainous terrain separating northern Israel from southern Lebanon around 20 km (12 miles) to the west.

In the same period, Israel has ramped up strikes on Syria, including its capital and the border with Lebanon, and Russian military units -- stationed in Syria's south in support of Syrian troops there -- have withdrawn from at least one observation post overlooking the demilitarised area, the two Syrian sources and one of the Lebanese sources said.

All of the sources spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss their monitoring of Israel's military operations in the Golan, most of which was seized by Israel from Syria in 1967.

The Syrian soldier stationed in the south said Israel was pushing the fence separating the occupied Golan and the demilitarised zone (DMZ) further out and erecting their own fortifications near Syria "so there would not be any infiltration in the event this front flares up."

The soldier said Israel appeared to be creating "a buffer zone" in the DMZ. A second senior Lebanese security source told Reuters that Israeli troops had dug a new trench near the DMZ in October.

One senior Lebanese security source said the demining operations could allow Israeli troops to "encircle" Hezbollah from the east.

The DMZ has been home for the last five decades to the U.N. Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF), mandated to oversee disengagement of Israeli and Syrian forces after a 1973 war.

A U.N. peacekeeping official in New York said that UNDOF had "recently observed some construction activity being carried out by Israeli military forces in the vicinity of the area of separation," but did not have further details.

RUSSIA LEAVES OVERLOOK POINT

Asked about the demining, the Israeli military said it "does not comment on operational plans" and it "is currently fighting against the terrorist organization Hezbollah in order to allow for the safe return of northern residents to their homes."

UNDOF, Russia, and Syria did not respond to requests for comment by Reuters.

A report to the U.N. Security Council on the activities of UNDOF, dated Sept. 24 and seen by Reuters on Oct. 4, cited violations on both sides of the demilitarized zone.

Russian troops, meanwhile, have left the Tal Hara outpost, the highest point in Syria's southern Daraa governorate and a strategic overlook point, according to the two Syrian sources and one of the Lebanese sources.

The Russians had left because of understandings with the Israelis to prevent a clash, a Syrian military officer said.

Syrian authorities, whose country is part of Iran's 'Axis of Resistance', have sought to remain out of the fray since regional tensions soared after Hamas's Oct. 7 assault last year.

Reuters reported in January that Assad had been discouraged from taking any action in support of Hamas after he received threats from Israel. Hezbollah too had "steered away" from building up any forces in the Syrian-held Golan.

Syria's army has not made additional deployments, the Syrian military intelligence officer told Reuters.

A Syrian army officer said that on Tuesday morning Syrian army commanders ordered Syrian paramilitary groups to pull back from the southern Quneitra area in the Golan within 24 hours.

Fighters from Iraqi armed groups backed by Iran had also been ordered to withdraw from areas in the southern Quneitra countryside after seeing Israeli tanks in the zone, according to two sources from the groups.

The Iraqi fighters were told not to engage the Israeli forces directly, the sources said.

Reuters

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Russia’s Su-25 attack aircraft disrupt rotation of Ukrainian forces in Kursk region

Crews of Russia’s Su-25 ground attack aircraft have thwarted the rotation of Ukrainian forces in borderline areas of the Kursk Region, the Russian Defense Ministry said.

"The strike was carried out by aircraft missiles against reconnaissance targets," the ministry said. "According to intelligence reports, the enemy’s armored hardware and manpower were destroyed."

After the use of aviation weapons, the crews performed an anti-missile maneuver, releasing decoy flares, and returned to their airfield of departure.

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Russia launches drone attack on Kyiv, mayor says

Russia launched a drone attack on Kyiv late on Tuesday, top officials in the Ukrainian capital said.

"Stay in shelters," Mayor Vitali Klitschko wrote on the Telegram messaging app. He said drones were headed towards the large Troieshchyna neighbourhood on the outskirts of Kyiv.

Serhiy Popko, head of Kyiv's military administration said on Telegram that air defence units were engaged in repelling the attack.

There was no immediate information about potential damage or injuries.

Kyiv, its surrounding region and the whole eastern half of Ukraine were under air raid alerts from about 1900 GMT.

Tass/Reuters

Restructuring agitators currently pushing for regionalism, as opposed to the 2014 Confab Resolutions of "States as federating units", are either ignorant of the history of regionalism, driven by prebendalist or internal colonialistic or separatist motives. This will set Nigeria back in the quest for representative democracy for every one of its 371 ethnicities regardless of size, without which the country will continue to be destabilized and unable to act as a nation. Some actually see regionalism as a step towards the fulfilment of their separatist dreams to opt out of Nigeria.

The British used regionalism to put a knife to what held the country together as an indigenous African civilization and ever since then, things permanently fell apart as the center no longer held. To place the Southern Protectorate made up of Original African civilization at a demographic, geographic and political disadvantage, they shaved the top of the core of the Original African civilization, and added it to the Northern Protectorate.

If the colonists had stopped at wrongly adding the upper Original African civilization, Middlebelt, to the Northern region, eventually due to the demographic and political disadvantages, a united Southern Protectorate/region would have fought to get back their civilizational land and peoples from the Northern Protectorate. This would have naturally swayed political power to the indigenous African civilization that are 70% of Nigeria's population, so in April 1939 the colonists further broke the Southern Protectorate into two regions - East and West.

This administrative violence was to promote regional Pan Tribalistic perspectives that broke up the Nigeria Youth Movement and NCNC pushing for independence. Shortly afterwards, the British introduced the 1946 Richards Constitution based on regional governments, which gave birth to prebendalism, a political system that the elites used their cultural identity for economic and political profit from the center for themselves, friends and family. The elites only used their cultural identity as a badge and sense of entitlement, and didn't care about its content as they even fought against the constitutionalization of their traditional institutions, in what was essentially a class war between the neocolonial and traditional elites.

The Prebendalist system was a Paw in the bottle trick used to capture monkeys, whereby a nut is placed in a bottle which the monkey can only remove with its fists clenched around the nut that can't come out of the bottle, and therefore captured. The lure of Prebendalist benefits prevented the Southern elite from uniting on a civilizational level as done throughout the world, and even in the Afroasiatic Northern Protectorate civilization.

Before the advent of Europeans from 1415, the Original African civilization was a continuum of dialects, with common genetic and cultural origins, that spread from Southern Nigeria to Southern Africa. For nearly 100,000 years, before any other race was created, the Original African civilization had slowly evolved from a theocracy based on African Spiritual Sciences, to monarchial dynasties. The monarchs at the core were called Obas in Yoruba/Edo lands and due to slight dialect change Obis in Igboland.

With the 1861 colonization of Lagos, their first colony, the British in order to blur the people’s cultural identity and interrelationships, immediately set out to start a process known as epistemicide, which is the act of denigration and bastardization of traditional knowledge systems that held collective history and philosophy, the main thread that tied the people together as a civilization. They commissioned a freed and indoctrinated slave to break up the continuum of dialects, using a single dialect as a regional standard language and tribe, which created distinct languages that appeared distant and unrelated. For example, Oyo dialect became standard Yoruba while Onitsha dialect became Igbo, despite the fact that they slowly evolved into each other as you go along villages. Using different rules of translation, like Oka becoming Awka, the languages appeared to be unrelated. The new dialect turned standard languages were popularized and institutionalized by making sure that they became the official language in the colonial schools, churches and colonial institutions.

Not only did the new colonial social constructs have their own regions for direct access to the center of the unitary state for Prebendalist benefits, their regions had some minorities that they could also internally colonize. In the Western region, there were the Edo minorities that eventually fought for its own region, while in the East, there were the Niger Deltan minorities which the Igbos could colonize but who eventually fought for their own Deltan/South South States. The alluring nut of regionalism prevented the unity of the indigenous African civilization to challenge the Northern Afro-Arabic civilization and their mutual European colonists.

Post independence, the unwieldy regions of internal colonizers came into conflict, as the Northern region of Afro-Arabic civilizational imperialists, who had been unjustly strengthened with the Middlebelt of Indigenous African ethnicities, attempted to takeover the country by backing the division of the Western region, which was done by jailing its political leadership Obafemi Awolowo and removing the civilizational leader Ooni of Ife as the Governor. The Igbo dominated Eastern region overthrew the Northern Afro-Arabic civilizational leadership in control of the center, and later tried to secede. Seeing how the three major groups were unfairly pulling apart the federation of over 370 ethnicities, the regions were broken down to twelve states.

Nevertheless, the regionally inspired Prebendalist political culture was further ingrained into political consciousness. The initial Yoruba-Igbo-Hausa-Fulani tribal regions of internal colonization were challenged and broken up, as bigger ethnicities of the 370 minorities agitated for their own states. The resultant 36 states were categorized into six regions, with part of the Middlebelt called North Central region, while the core North was divided into Northeast region with indigenous African minorities, and Northwest also with indigenous African minorities. To the South, the Delta minorities were called the South South region, while Yorubas had the Southwest region and Igbos the Southeast region.

The regionalism continued to pit Southern tribal political elites against each other in their struggle for Prebendalist benefits, to the disadvantage of the Original African civilization that became susceptible to divide and rule by the Northern Afro-Arabic civilization.  Since the Afro-Arabic civilization didn't undergo the colonial epistemicide of its civilizational links based on Islam, the Northern Afro-Arabic civilization could unite their North East and North West regions, unlike the three Southern regions that could unite civilizationally for collective aspirations.

The Confab built a rapport between the South and Middlebelt civilization based on their collective aspirations of self determination for every group within a loose federation. Initially Southwest Yorubas pushed for regionalism, regardless of the fact that fellow Yorubas will be trapped in the North Central region, while Igbos wanted regions redrawn to give them access to the coast and realign Igbos in the South South region to the Southeast region. At the negotiating table, the South and Middlebelt ethnicites whose numbers couldn't make up a region and didn't want to return to Wazobia regional hegemony insisted on states as federating units.

Though the individual ethnicities of Deltan and Middlebelt couldn't make up a tribal region, their combined numbers were greater than those of the individual big three, so in order to achieve the two thirds quorum required to change the constitution an agreement was reached. However, as bad habits are hard to kick, the three big groups with their paws in the bottle around the Prebendalist regionalism nut thave regressed back into regionalism, which means no progress will be made.

Some regional activists can clearly see that it would be near impossible to make state politicians give up their states to regional control which their fathers had fought to gain freedom from regional hegemons. Most disheartening is that though they mouth self determination for all groups over their culture and economics, they want to throw small groups under the bus of hegemonic regionalism. At the end of which nothing will be achieved without 24 states for the two thirds quorum required to change the constitution.

** Justice J Faloye is the author of The Blackworld Evolution to Revolution, President ASHE Foundation think tank, and Afenifere National Publicity Secretary.

Bernard Marr

In the ever-evolving landscape of artificial intelligence, three powerful forces are reshaping our world: predictive, prescriptive, and generative AI. These technologies are not just buzzwords; they're the driving forces behind some of the most exciting innovations in business, healthcare, and creative industries. But what exactly are they, and how are they changing the game? Let's dive in and demystify these AI powerhouses.

Predictive AI: The Crystal Ball Of The Digital Age

Imagine having a crystal ball that could peer into the future, revealing valuable insights about what's to come. That's essentially what predictive AI does, minus the mystical hocus-pocus. This type of AI uses historical data and machine learning algorithms to forecast future outcomes with remarkable accuracy.

Take weather forecasting, for instance. Predictive AI analyzes vast amounts of meteorological data to predict weather patterns days or even weeks in advance. But its applications go far beyond telling you whether to pack an umbrella. In the business world, predictive AI is a game-changer. Retail giants use it to anticipate consumer trends and stock their shelves accordingly. Financial institutions employ it to detect fraudulent transactions before they happen. Healthcare providers leverage predictive AI to identify patients at risk of developing certain conditions, enabling early intervention and potentially saving lives.

The power of predictive AI lies in its ability to uncover patterns and correlations that might be invisible to the human eye. It's like having a tireless analyst working around the clock, sifting through mountains of data to extract actionable insights. However, it's important to remember that predictive AI is not infallible. It's based on historical data and patterns, which means it has a propensity to perpetuate biases from the training data, and it can struggle with unprecedented events or rapid changes in behavior.

Prescriptive AI: The Digital Decision-Maker

If predictive AI is the crystal ball, then prescriptive AI is the wise sage telling you what to do with that knowledge. Prescriptive AI takes the insights generated by predictive models and goes a step further, recommending specific actions to achieve desired outcomes.

Think of it as your personal AI strategist. In the world of logistics, prescriptive AI can analyze traffic patterns, weather conditions, and delivery schedules to optimize routes for delivery trucks, saving time and fuel. In healthcare, it can recommend personalized treatment plans based on a patient's genetic makeup, lifestyle, and medical history.

One of the most exciting applications of prescriptive AI is in autonomous vehicles, where it is used to make split-second decisions on the road, navigate traffic, avoid obstacles, and adapt to changing conditions in real-time.

The beauty of prescriptive AI lies in its ability to consider multiple variables and potential outcomes simultaneously, something the human brain often struggles with. It can weigh pros and cons, calculate risks, and suggest the best course of action in complex scenarios. Nonetheless, it's crucial to remember that prescriptive AI is a tool to aid decision-making, not replace human judgment entirely. The final decision should always involve human oversight, especially in high-stakes situations.

Generative AI: The Digital Artist And Innovator

Now, let's turn our attention to the newest kid on the AI block: generative AI. If predictive AI is about forecasting the future and prescriptive AI is about making decisions, generative AI is all about creating something entirely new.

Generative AI uses machine learning models to produce original content, be it text, images, music, or even code. It's the technology behind chatbots like ChatGPT, Google Gemini and Claude that can engage in human-like conversations, and AI-generated artworks and deepfakes that have been making headlines.

But generative AI isn't just about creating digital art or witty chatbot responses. It's revolutionizing product design, allowing engineers to input parameters and generate thousands of potential designs in minutes. In the pharmaceutical industry, it's being used to discover new drug compounds by generating and evaluating molecular structures. Writers and marketers are using it to brainstorm ideas and create content at unprecedented speeds.

One of the most fascinating aspects of generative AI is its ability to combine ideas in novel ways, potentially leading to innovations that humans might never have conceived. It's like having a tireless brainstorming partner with access to the sum of human knowledge.

But as with all AIs, there are challenges and important ethical questions. As these systems become more advanced, we'll need to grapple with issues of originality, copyright, and the very nature of creativity itself. There's also the potential for misuse, such as generating convincing fake news or deepfake videos.

The AI Trifecta: A Powerful Combination

While each of these AI types is powerful in its own right, their true potential lies in how they can work together, something we refer to as hybrid AI. Imagine a business that uses predictive AI to forecast market trends, prescriptive AI to develop strategies to capitalize on those trends, and generative AI to create the products or content needed to execute those strategies. This AI trifecta could revolutionize entire industries, driving innovation and efficiency to new heights.

Navigating The AI-Powered Future

As we stand on the brink of this AI revolution, it's clear that predictive, prescriptive, and generative AI will play increasingly important roles in our lives and businesses. They offer unprecedented capabilities to forecast, decide, and create, opening up new possibilities in every field, from healthcare to entertainment.

However, as with any powerful technology, these AI types come with both opportunities and challenges. As we harness their potential, we must also be mindful of their limitations and ethical implications. The key lies in viewing AI not as a replacement for human intelligence but as a powerful tool to augment and enhance our own capabilities.

In this AI-powered future, those who can effectively leverage these technologies – understanding their strengths, limitations, and interplay – will be best positioned to thrive. So, whether you're a business leader, a healthcare professional, or simply a curious individual, now is the time to familiarize yourself with these AI powerhouses. The future is here, and it's being shaped by predictive, prescriptive, and generative AI.

Forbes

The introduction of a bill in the Nigerian House of Representatives seeking to establish the “Bola Ahmed Tinubu Federal University of Nigerian Languages” is an unfortunate reminder of the National Assembly’s growing detachment from public sentiment and intellectual rigor. This ill-conceived move, spearheaded by Deputy Speaker Benjamin Kalu and his fellow backers, signals a blatant disregard for both the needs of the Nigerian people and the integrity of the country’s higher education system.

At the heart of this bill is the alarming question: what exactly qualifies President Bola Tinubu for such an honor? Naming an institution after an individual is typically reserved for those who have made extraordinary contributions in the relevant field. In this case, the proposed university is meant to promote the study of Nigeria’s indigenous languages and cultures. Tinubu, however, is neither a polyglot in local languages nor a cultural figure of note. He is not known for championing the preservation or promotion of Nigeria’s linguistic heritage. The choice to name this university after him smacks of opportunism and serves as a troubling example of how far the legislative branch is willing to go to foster a dangerous cult of personality around the president.

This bill comes at a time when existing universities across Nigeria are underfunded and struggling. The proliferation of new federal universities has been driven by the shallow ambitions of legislators seeking “federal presence” in their constituencies, without consideration for whether these institutions can actually function effectively. Instead of tackling the structural issues that plague Nigerian universities—poor funding, inadequate facilities, and brain drain—the National Assembly seems more interested in hollow gestures that flatter the executive branch. The establishment of yet another university, under the guise of honoring a president who has barely spent 17 months in office, is an affront to reason and a gross misallocation of resources.

Worse still is the symbolism behind the bill. It is not enough that Tinubu is the president—he must also be immortalized with a university dedicated to preserving Nigerian languages, an area where he has no notable expertise or accomplishments. What this bill truly reflects is the legislative branch’s eagerness to curry favor with the president, to the point of undermining the very principles of merit and intellectual achievement that should define the country’s academic institutions.

Let us be clear: if a university must be established in honor of President Tinubu, it should reflect his real contributions. Perhaps a university devoted to the study of “winning elections the Nigerian way” would be more fitting. After all, Tinubu has distinguished himself in the fine art of political maneuvering, electoral gymnastics, result sheet calligraphy, and advanced studies in “go-to-court” triumphalism. At least then we'd be acknowledging his true legacy.

The Nigerian people deserve better from their legislators. Rather than elevating individuals with hollow honors, the legislators should be focusing on tangible improvements in education, healthcare, and the economy—areas where Nigeria is in dire need of reform. The fact that such a bill even passed the first reading in the House of Representatives speaks volumes about the intellectual poverty that currently pervades the National Assembly. It is a disheartening reminder that, for too many of the lawmakers, sycophancy trumps service.

In an era where Nigeria is grappling with unprecedented economic challenges, widespread hunger, and policy failures, the last thing the country needs is another vanity project that serves no purpose other than to inflate the ego of the ruling class. If the National Assembly truly cared about honoring contributions to Nigerian society, they would focus their energies on meaningful reforms, not on perpetuating a cult of personality that further alienates them from the people they claim to represent.

Let this bill die the death it deserves!

The national electricity grid collapsed on Monday, leading to a nationwide blackout.

According to a statement on X by Abuja Electricity Distribution Company (AEDC), the national grid collapsed at 6:58pm.

AEDC said a system failure at the national grid affected the power supply from its franchise area.

“Please be informed that the power outage being experienced is due to a system failure from the national grid at 6:58pm today, affecting the power supply to our franchise areas,” the company said.

“Rest assured, we are working with the relevant stakeholders to restore power as soon as the grid is stabilised. Thank you for your understanding.”

Also, in a statement by Enugu Electricity Distribution Company (EEDC), Emeka Ezeh, head of corporate communications, said the company is unable to provide power to its customers in Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu, and Imo states.

“The Enugu Electricity Distribution Company PLC (EEDC) wishes to inform her esteemed customers of a general system collapse that occurred at 18:48 hours today, 14th October, 2024,” Ezeh said.

“This has resulted in the loss of supply currently being experienced across EEDC network.

“Consequently, due to this development, all our interface TCN stations are out of supply, and we are unable to provide services to our customers in Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu, and Imo States.

“We are on standby awaiting detailed information of the collapse and restoration of supply from the National Control Centre (NCC), Osogbo.”

‘WORKING WITH STAKEHOLDERS TO RESTORE POWER’

On its part, Eko ElectricityDistributionCompany (EKEDC) also said the company is working with stakeholders to restore.

“Kindly be informed there was a system collapse at 18:48hrs which has resulted to a loss of power supply across our network,” EKEDC said.

“We are currently working with our partners as we hope for speedy restoration of the grid. We will keep you updated as soon as power supply is restored.”

The national electricity grid has collapsed six times in 2024.

On August 5, various distribution companies (DisCos) said their feeders became inactive, resulting in widespread blackouts across the country.

Similarly, Nigeria recorded the fourth system failure at the national grid on July 6.

Also, the national grid collapsed on April 15, March 28 and February 4.

On May 1, the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) said the number of system collapses has declined by 76.47 percent in five years.

Ndidi Mbah, TCN’s spokesperson, said the country recorded 20 system collapses from 2020 till May 1, compared to the 85 grid disturbances between 2015 to 2019.

TCN said it had deployed a digital system called generation dip/loss detection system (GLDS) to swiftly detect and respond to sudden drops in power generation.

The Cable

Oil prices slid 3% in early Asian trade on Tuesday after a media report said Israel is willing not to strike Iranian oil targets, which eased fears of a supply disruption, and after OPEC lowered its outlook for global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025.

Both benchmarks plunged 3% in early trade on Tuesday, following a 2% drop on Monday. Brent crude futures were down $2.27 at $75.19 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures fell $2.22 to $71.60 per barrel as of 0127 GMT.

Prices have fallen about $4 this week, nearly wiping out cumulative gains made in the seven sessions up to last Friday when investors were concerned about supply risks as Israel planned to retaliate against a missile attack from Iran.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has told the U.S. that Israel is willing to strike Iranian military targets and not nuclear or oil ones, the Washington Post reported on Monday.

OPEC on Monday cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 and also lowered its projection for next year.

"This is the third straight monthly downgrade, suggesting its previously optimistic forecasts have further to retreat," analysts at ANZ Research said in a note on Tuesday.

"It (Iraq) is still not making any progress in the extra cuts it promised to compensate for over production," ANZ said.

Also weighing on prices was a decline in crude shipments to the world's largest oil importer China for the first nine months of the year, with data showing imports fell nearly 3% from last year.

China accounted for the bulk of the 2024 downgrade by OPEC, as it trimmed its growth forecast for the country to 580,000 barrels per day (bpd) from 650,000 bpd.

Deflationary pressures in China worsened in September, according to official data released on Saturday. A press conference the same day left investors guessing about the overall size of a stimulus package to revive the fortunes of the world's second-largest economy.

Reuters

Nigerian independent producer Belemaoil Producing has resumed operations at its oil block Oil Mining Lease 55 after a three-year shutdown as a result of damage to the facility caused by theft, it said on Monday.

Belemaoil acquired OML 55, located about 40 km west of the Bonny oil export terminal in a swamp to shallow water area, from Chevron Corp in February 2015.

Operations at OML 55 were halted in 2021 due to rampant oil theft from its delivery line to the Bonny terminal, a Belemaoil spokesperson said in a statement.

According to the company, the block contains five oilfields that produce about 14,000 barrels per day and more than 70 million standard cubic feet of gas per day.

The arrival of the first floating oil storage vessel at OML 55 on Oct. 6 marked "a major milestone in the company's efforts to restart production", the spokesperson said.

Nigeria, Africa's top oil producer, is trying to boost crude output which has fallen in recent years due to large-scale theft and sabotage that have forced oil majors to exit onshore drilling to focus on deepwater production.

Reuters

Israeli strike in northern Lebanon kills at least 21 people

An Israeli airstrike hit an apartment building in northern Lebanon on Monday, killing at least 21 people, according to the Lebanese Red Cross.

The Israeli military did not immediately comment and the target was not clear. The strike hit a small apartment building in the village of Aito, which is part of the country’s Christian heartland in the north and far from the Hezbollah militant group’s main areas of influence in the south and east.

Rescue workers in Aito searched through the rubble of the building as ambulances stood by to receive the bodies of victims. Nearby buildings and cars were damaged in the strike.

The strike came a day after a Hezbollah drone attack on an army basein northern Israel killed four soldiers — all of them 19 years old — and severely wounded seven others in the deadliest strike by the militant group since Israel launched its ground invasion of Lebanon nearly two weeks ago.

On Monday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the army base and soldiers wounded in the attack, vowing “we will continue to strike Hezbollah without compassion in every part of Lebanon, including in Beirut.”

Sixty-one people were wounded in Sunday’s attack. Hezbollah has fired thousands of rockets, missiles and drones into Israel over the past year, killing more than 60 people, although Israel says most have been intercepted by its air defense systems or hit open areas.

In Lebanon, some 2,300 people have been killed by Israeli strikes since last October, according to the country’s Health Ministry. More than three-quarters of the deaths occurred in the past month.

Hezbollah, an ally of Hamas, has vowed to keep up its attacks on Israel until there is a cease-fire in Gaza. Israel has said its campaign against Hezbollah is aimed at stopping those attacks so displaced Israelis can feel safe returning to their homes near the Lebanese border.

A strike and an inferno in a Gaza hospital courtyard

Earlier on Monday, an Israeli airstrike on a hospital courtyard in the Gaza Strip killed at least four people and triggered a fire that swept through a tent camp for people displaced by the war, leaving more than two dozen with severe burns.

The Israeli military said the strike in Gaza targeted militants hiding among civilians, without providing evidence. In recent months it has repeatedly struck crowded shelters and tent camps, alleging that Hamas fighters were using them as staging grounds for attacks.

Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital in the central city of Deir al-Balah was already struggling to treat a large number of wounded from an earlier strike on a school-turned-shelter that killed at least 20 people when the early morning airstrike hit and fire engulfed many of the tents.

Several secondary explosions could be heard after the initial strike, but it was not immediately clear if they were caused by weapons or fuel tanks.

Hospital records showed that four people were killed and 40 wounded. Twenty-five people were transferred to Nasser Hospital in southern Gaza after suffering severe burns, according to Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital.

The Biden administration called the strike on Al Aqsa Martyr’s Hospital “deeply disturbing” and said it has expressed concerns about it to the Israeli government.

“Israel has a responsibility to do more to avoid civilian casualties — and what happened here is horrifying, even if Hamas was operating near the hospital in an attempt to use civilians as human shields,” the White House National Security Council said in a statement.

The war began when Hamas attacked southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, while Palestinian militants abducted around 250 hostages. Around 100 are still being held inside Gaza, a third of whom are believed to be dead.

Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed over 42,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, which does not say how many were fighters but says women and children make up more than half the fatalities. Around 90% of Gaza’s population of 2.3 million people have been displaced by the war, often multiple times, and large areas of the coastal territory have been completely destroyed.

Israeli rights groups warn of forced transfer in northern Gaza

Israel has ordered the entire remaining population of the northern third of Gaza, estimated at around 400,000 people, to evacuate to the south and has not allowed any food to enter the north since the start of the month. Hundreds of thousands of people from the north heeded Israeli evacuation orders at the start of the war and have not been allowed to return.

That has raised fears among Palestinians that Israel intends to implement a plan devised by former generals in which it would order all civilians out of northern Gaza and label anyone remaining there a combatant — a surrender-or-starve strategy that rights groups say would violate international law.

The plan has been presented to the Israeli government, but it’s unclear whether it has been adopted. The military says it has not received such orders.

Israeli rights groups on Monday called on the international community to prevent Israel from carrying out the plan, saying there are “alarming signs” that Israel is beginning to implement it.

The statement, signed by B’Tselem, Gisha, Yesh Din and Physicians for Human Rights-Israel, warned that states “have an obligation to prevent the crimes of starvation and forcible transfer.”

On Monday, the Israeli military said it allowed 30 trucks carrying flour and food into north Gaza. COGAT, the Israeli military body that oversees aid distribution in Gaza, said the trucks entered northern Gaza through the Erez crossing.

AP

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine holds new online conference on peace, calls for revised security system

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's chief of staff called on Monday for a new international security system to preclude future instances of armed aggression, as he addressed an online conference on securing peace following Russia's invasion.

Andriy Yermak said 66 countries and international organisations had taken part in the conference, devoted to one point of the president's peace plan on ending the more than 2 1/2-year-old war with Russia. The discussions focused on future instances of escalation and aggression.

Zelenskiy planned to present to parliament this week a "victory plan" - a follow-up to the peace plan he drew up in late 2022 calling for the withdrawal of Russian troops and the restoration of Ukraine's 1991 borders.

That plan formed the basis of a "peace summit" held in Switzerland in June.

Yermak, writing on Zelenskiy's website, said existing security systems "had been unable to propose active means to rule out Russian aggression" and its world-wide consequences.

"We need a renewed security architecture based on international law and the strengthening of Ukraine's own defence capabilities," he wrote. "This system should cover not only a military component, but also sanctions, financial support, investments and broad cooperation in various fields."

Yermak did not say which countries took part in the conference, one of a series in preparation for world-wide summits and intended to draw support from countries in the Global South, particularly Africa and Asia.

Zelenskiy has said he wants to hold a new "world summit" before the end of 2024. Russia was uninvited to the Swiss gathering, dismissed its discussions as irrelevant and said it would attend no such meeting in the future.

Zelenskiy discussed his victory plan last week with leaders of Ukraine's European allies and pressed for permission to use Western long-range weapons against Russian targets.

Few details of the plan have been disclosed. Zelenskiy says it seeks to strengthen Ukraine "both geopolitically and on the battlefield" before any kind of dialogue with Russia.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine’s battlefield situation ‘critical’ – ex-NATO official

Ukraine will soon have to abandon the key Donbass city of Pokrovsk as its defenses slowly crumble under Russian attacks, General Harald Kujat, a former chief of staff of the German armed forces and chairman of the NATO Military Committee, believes.

In an interview with journalist and podcaster Flavio von Witzleben on Sunday, Kujat, who chaired the NATO Military Committee between 2002 and 2005, suggested that Ukraine’s plan to divert Russian units away from Donbass via its Kursk incursion has failed because Russia has not had to curtail its offensive in the region.

“Ukraine originally intended… that the Russians would pull combat troops back [to Kursk Region], but this has now turned out to be to its own detriment because the Russians are now tying up the urgently needed Ukrainian reserves that are now missing in Donbass,” he said, describing the Kursk offensive as an “all-in action.” 

As a result, Russia is slowly advancing in Donbass at a pace consistent with the desire to minimize losses, Kujat believes. Russia has made gains near Pokrovsk, Kujat noted, describing the city, located some 50km northwest of Donetsk, as “of crucial importance” due to its logistical significance.

“Ukraine is still holding its position but it is only a matter of time before this city falls… The situation of the Ukrainian armed forces is critical and it is becoming more and more critical day by day and this is despite the massive material and financial support from the West,” he said.

In light of this, the conflict is on a “downward trend” for Ukraine, Kujat said, adding that this trajectory has clearly accelerated. “If there is no political agreement… there Ukraine will suffer a military defeat,”the general projected.

As fighting rages on the outskirts of Pokrovsk, Ukrainian officials have repeatedly described the situation there as “difficult.” Several Western media outlets have also warned that the loss of Pokrovsk will not only hamper the Ukrainian military’s logistics in Donbass, but will also deal a severe blow to the country’s economy, as the area serves as a key source of coal for its steel and iron industries.

The Russian military has been making gains in Donbass in recent weeks, liberating dozens of settlements, including the key stronghold of Ugledar in the southern section of the front.

Both Donetsk and Lugansk Regions in Donbass overwhelmingly voted to join Russia in referendums in the autumn of 2022, along with two other former Ukrainian territories.

Reuters/RT