China has long been touted as a revolutionary when it comes to wind power. Earlier this year, it was reported that the country had begun construction of a wind farm using what were then hailed as the largest turbines ever seen, each with a capacity of 16 megawatts. Now, a new milestone has been reached, with the successful switch-on of a turbine with a rotor diameter over twice the length of a football field.

China Three Gorges Corporation announced that the 16-megawatt MySE 16-260 turbine had been successfully installed at the company’s offshore wind farm near Fujian Province on July 19. The behemoth is 152 meters (500 feet) tall, and each single blade is 123 meters (403 feet) and weighs 54 tons. This means that the sweep of the blades as they rotate covers an area of 50,000 square meters (nearly 540,000 square feet).

It's the first time such a large turbine has been hooked up to a commercial grid.

According to the corporation, just one of these turbines should be able to produce enough electricity to power 36,000 households of three people each for one year. Detailing the impressive green credentials of this technology, they claim that wind-powered domestic electricity could reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 54,000 tons compared with using coal-fired power stations.

The Fuijian offshore wind farm sits in the Taiwan Strait. Gusts of force 7 on the Beaufort scale, classified as “near gales”, are a regular occurrence in these treacherous waters, which is obviously perfect for generating wind power – provided, of course, that your turbines can withstand the weather. Mingyang Smart Energy, who designed the MySE 16-260, were already confident their machine was up to the challenge, stating in a LinkedIn postthat it could handle “extreme wind speeds of 79.8 [meters per second].”

Still, it wasn’t very long at all before these claims were put to the test, in the wake of the devastating typhoon Talim that ravaged East Asia earlier this month. The typhoon threat is ever-present in this region, and the new mega-turbine withstood the onslaught.

Buoyed by the success of this installation, China Three Gorges Corporation is already looking to the future. “In the next step, the 16 [megawatt] unit will be applied in batches in the second phase of the Zhangpu Liuao Offshore Wind Farm Project constructed by China Three Gorges Corporation,” said executive director of the Three Gorges Group Fujian Company Lei Zengjuan.

Whilst China has been leading the way in developing bigger and more powerful turbines, other countries are hot on its heels. Construction is underway on the USA’s Vineyard Wind 1, a massive offshore development that will incorporate 13-megawatt GE Haliade-X turbines. In 2021, Denmark announced a project to build a dedicated artificial island of wind turbines off its coast.

In a world where a push away from fossil fuels is more urgently needed than ever before, any and all advances in renewable energy must surely be good news.

 

IFL Science

How to master being aware of your emotions and the emotions of others.

When it comes to leading yourself and others, emotional intelligence -- the ability to understand and manage our own emotions and understand and influence the emotions of others -- is just as important as IQ, if not more.

Here's why: when you get good at being aware of your emotions and the emotions of others, you can connect on a human level with others much more cohesively to reach solutions faster. A person's IQ, while certainly required in the role of a leader, cannot travel the same road as fast. It needs to partner with EQ.

If you're convinced, mastering your emotional intelligence to become a more effective human being doesn't happen overnight. It takes practice. Here are five things to help you get started.

1. Be curious

Speaking to students at his high school alma mater in 2019, Bill Gatesstressed the critical importance of curiosity as a framework for acquiring knowledge. Gates said that it will help prepare future workers for the immense changes that will take place. Not only is curiosity key to the learning process, but it's also great for overall life satisfaction, according to science. Several research studies suggest curious people have better relationships, connect better, and enjoy socializing more. In fact, other people are more easily attracted and feel socially closer to individuals that display curiosity.

2. Grow from your mistakes

Get into the habit of "failing forward." As you experiment, fail, try again, and learn from your mistakes, accept that it's all part of the process to grow, without any shame attached. We need to redefine failure and making mistakes through new lenses and see it as a critical part of learning a new way of life.

3. Address your blind spots

To raise your emotional intelligence means to acknowledge your blind spots. It may not come from you, so be brave enough to consider that what others speak to you is true. Look at this as an opportunity to address whatever is holding you back. Now you can do something about what others are saying is a problem. Take heart in knowing that this is for your own greater good. It will make you a truly better person in service to others.

4. Hold your tongue in the heat of the moment

A good sign of someone with high EQ happens in conflict. When buttons are pushed and you're tempted to 'stick it to the man,' your best course of action in the heat of an argument may be to hold your tongue. This requires keen self-awareness and self-control (two tenets of EQ), but you'll thank yourself later. Taking this approach doesn't mean you suppress your emotions when being wronged. But it will help you to probe your emotions in any given situation to understand what you're feeling and why before spouting off at the mouth in a fit of anger. This is key for understanding how to appropriately respond, rather than impulsively react to a situation going south. So that when tomorrow comes, you may not feel it necessary to tell someone to go "f" himself (and thankfully save yourself from burning a bridge or, worse, losing your job).

 

Inc

Thousands of protesters supporting a coup in Niger took to the streets on Sunday and attacked the French embassy as West African governments warned of possible military action to restore democratic rule.

Demonstrators in the capital, Niamey, many waving Russian flags, smashed windows at the French embassy and set a perimeter door on fire but never breached the walls of the embassy compound

Protesters filled the Boulevard de la Republique and several other main thoroughfares in the capital, some running, others riding motorcycles, and many packed into vehicles. They blocked cars at traffic circles, backing up traffic on side streets. Some shouted and waved flags, mostly from Niger. 

In a span of several minutes, hundreds of protestors passed us as we watched from a vehicle, before deciding to turn around rather than trying to navigate through the sea of people. The morning also brought another new presence on the streets of Niamey — dozens of police checkpoints.  

Most protestors seemed to support the coup leaders and, for the most part, those who gathered did not seem angry. In fact, many smiled and seemed joyful.

As the demonstrations unfolded in Niger, West African nations held an emergency summit in Nigeria and announced sweeping sanctions on Niger unless President Mohammed Bazoum was released from detention and returned to power

The 15-nation Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) gave the coup leaders one week to reverse their seizure of power or face possible military intervention.

“In the event the authorities’ demands are not met within one week (ECOWAS will) take all measures necessary to restore constitutional order in the Republic of Niger. Such measures may include the use of force,” ECOWAS said in a statement.

ECOWAS said it was suspending all financial transactions with Niger, freezing Niger’s assets in central and commercial banks and imposing a travel ban and asset freeze on military officers involved in the coup. 

The Army officers who lead the coup in Niger said earlier that the ECOWAS bloc was on the verge of orchestrating a military intervention in the country.

Niger has been the anchor for Western counter-terrorism efforts across the turbulent Sahel region, with roughly 1,100 U.S. troops operating drones and training local forces to fight Islamist extremists.

For decades, France ruled Niger as a colonial power until it gained independence in 1960. Paris has retained an influential role since and currently has about 1,500 troops conducting joint operations with local forces against Islamist extremists. A French state-owned firm also operates a uranium mine in the country’s north. 

French President Emmanuel Macron said Sunday that assaults on France and its interests would not be tolerated.

“France calls for an end to the unacceptable violence observed today,” said the French foreign ministry, adding that it had stepped up security at the country’s embassy in Niamey.

France also said it supported the statement from the West African leaders in ECOWAS denouncing the coup.

U.S. officials have condemned the military officers’ seizure of power but have so far avoided using the word “coup.” Under U.S. law, such a declaration would require halting all American aid to the country and the end of all security cooperation with Niger.

U.S. officials told NBC News the situation remained fluid and it was unclear if the coup would hold. But they acknowledged that the strong statement from the ECOWAS summit may have increased tension in Niger.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Saturday warned that economic and security ties between the U.S. and Niger would depend on the release of Bazoum from house arrest and the restoration of “the democratic order in Niger.”

Although U.S. officials say there is no sign Russia was behind the coup, former diplomats and regional experts say Russia’s paramilitary Wagner Group has churned out anti-Western, anti-French propaganda for months that sought to depict Bazoum’s government as puppets of Paris.

Wagner paramilitaries have ties to military juntas in Mali and other countries in the region. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group, which led a brief mutiny in Russia last month, praised the coup in Niger on Thursday, calling it a fight against “colonizers.”

Late Sunday night, the streets of Niamey were quiet, with most people adhering to a nationwide curfew in effect for a fifth night. With President Bazoum still held captive in his presidential residence, no clear path appeared to exist for resolving Niger’s crisis.

 

NBC News

Niger’s military leaders have warned the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) not to send troops to the Republic of Niger.

General Abdourahmane Tchiani, also known as Omar Tchiani, and the chief of Niger’s presidential guard, declared himself leader while the country’s elected president, Mohamed Bazoum, has been held by the military since the coup took place last week.

The military leaders in Niger warned against any military intervention in a statement read on Niger national television.

“The objective of the ECOWAS meeting is to approve a plan of aggression against Niger through an imminent military intervention in Niamey in collaboration with other African countries that are non-members of ECOWAS, and certain Western countries,” Aljazeera quoted the military spokesperson, Amadou Abdramane, to have said.

During the meeting, the regional body issued a seven-day ultimatum to the military junta in Niger to reinstate President Bazoum as democratically elected President or face a range of stiff sanctions.

It also tasked all Chiefs of Defense Staff of the member-states to proceed for an emergency meeting to strategize on effective ways to implement a possible military operation to restore constitutional order in the country.

ECOWAS, which recognised Bazoum as the legitimate President of the nation, threatened to impose land border closures and no-fly zone conditions on Niger Republic should the military coup masterminds fail to heed its ultimatum.

This was the resolution of the Extraordinary Session of the Authority of Heads of State and Government of the ECOWAS, which held on Sunday at the Presidential Villa, Abuja.

 

Daily Trust

Days after General Abdourahamane Tiani declared himself Niger’s new leader, a picture is emerging of the little-known presidential guard commander who overthrew President Mohamed Bazoum last week.

In his announcement on state TV on July 28, Tiani denounced domestic corruption and management of Niger’s security, while pledging to honor international partnerships that have made it a key ally for governments fighting Islamist militants in West Africa.

But democratic backsliding in the country — also one of the world’s top uranium producers — may make it difficult for the United Nations and the West to continue their support. Such a move could open the door for Russia, which has expanded its influence across the region in recent years, partly through the Wagner Group.

While Tiani seems to have the support of all units of the army for now, Niger’s neighbors, the European Union, the US and former colonial power France have all called for the reinstatement of Bazoum — who has yet to step down.

Here are six things we know about Tiani:

1. He is close to former President Mahamadou Issoufou, who appointed Tiani to head the presidential guard in 2011 and promoted him to the rank of general in 2018. Issoufou was an important partner of the West — launching both a landmark deal with the EU to stem the flow of migrants in 2015 and allowing the US to build a drone base to target extremists in Libya and the broader region.

2. His forces repelled a coup attempt in March 2021, when a military unit from a nearby army base tried to seize the presidential palace only 48 hours before Bazoum was set be sworn in. Bazoum’s election marked Niger’s first peaceful, democratic transfer of power since its independence in 1960. Upon taking office, he kept Tiani as the head of the presidential guard, a special unit of about 700 soldiers.

3. In his address, Tiani criticized Bazoum’s security strategy, which he claimed excludes any genuine collaboration with Burkina Faso and Mali, even though the tri-border region between the three countries is a key zone for terrorist activities. He also criticized the release of “terrorist leaders.”

4. Tiani is from the northwestern Tillaberi region near Niger’s border with Mali, which has been at the heart of Islamic State-linked violence for years. At 59, he’s much older than the soldiers who have come to power in neighboring countries in the past three years. The leaders of Mali, Burkina Faso and Chad were all in their 30s when they took control.

5. Before joining Issoufou’s personal security, Tiani led forces in the southern Zinder region near the border with Nigeria and in the northern Agadez region, which for centuries has been a hub for traffickers of migrants, contraband and illicit goods crossing the Sahara Desert. Tiani is “very discreet” and “very close to Issoufou,” former Agadez mayor Rhissa Ag Feltou said by phone.

“He’s someone who knows the system very well. He was part of the system for over a decade,” he said. “Now he turned against it at a time when the country’s suffering. These are difficult times for Niger, maybe the most challenging period in our country’s history.”

6. Tiani, a decorated general, served in UN peacekeeping missions in Ivory Coast, Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The once military attaché for Niger in Germany, received training in France, Morocco and the US before joining the presidential guard. He is associated with modernization of the unit and blocking several coup attempts.

“He points at all the problems; the corruption, the bad governance, the mismanagement of state funds,” Rhissa said. “Can he solve them? That remains to be seen.”

 

Bloomberg

A peacebuilding think tank, Foundation for Peace Professionals also known as PeacePro, has warned the leadership of the African Union (AU) and ECOWAS against military intervention in Niger Republic.

PeacePro also noted that no foreign nation or organization has authority to intervene militarily in any sovereign nation over internal issues.

Executive Director of the group, Abdulrazaq Hamzat, in a statement said it supported the strong position of African Union and ECOWAS on the restoration of democratic order in Niger Republic and all other proposed measures, except military intervention.

He warned that military intervention would turn West Africa into a battle zone between foreign powers and armed dealers.

He stated that no matter the good intentions behind it, the outcome will be catastrophic for the continent.

Hamzat also explained that, no international law permits military intervention in any country, except for peacekeeping operations and should AU and ECOWAS contemplate such intervention, foreign powers may also justify their numerous illegal operations and other future interventions through the same process.

“Military intervention in Niger Republic amounts to digging Africa’s grave and nobody digs his or her own grave,” Hamzat added.

 

Daily Trust

President Bola Tinubu has appointed a Special Investigator to probe the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and Related Entities.

In a letter sighted by Daily Trust, the president named Jim Obazee, former Chief Executive Officer, Financial Reporting Council of Nigeria (FRCN), as the investigator.

The President asked the Special Investigator to investigate CBN and key Government Business Entities (GBEs).

He also said Obazee would report directly to his office.

“In accordance with the fundamental objective set forth in Section 15(5) of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria 1999 (as amended), this administration is, today, continuing the fight against corruption by appointing you as a Special Investigator, to investigate the CBN and Related Entities. This appointment shall be with immediate effect and you are to report directly to my office.”

“The full terms of your engagement as Special Investigator shall be communicated to you in due course but, require that you immediately take steps to ensure the strengthening and probity of key Government Business Entities (GBEs), further block leakages in CBN and related GBEs and provide a comprehensive report on public wealth currently in the hands of corrupt individuals and establishments (whether private or public).

“You are to investigate the CBN and related entities using a suitably experienced, competent and capable team and work with relevant security and anti-corruption agencies to deliver on this assignment. I shall expect a weekly briefing on the progress being made,” the letter read.

The president also sent a copy of his directive suspending Godwin Emefiele as Governor of the CBN on June 9, 2023.

Emefiele has been in DSS custody since then. He was arraigned in court last week and granted bail but the secret police rearrested him.

 

Daily Trust

Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) has said that all customers have the right to a refund when overbilled by their respective distribution companies (DisCos).

The Commission shared this insight via an awareness video on its Twitter handle on Friday, July 28.

The Commission’s website also lists all the rights of electricity customers in the country. The rights are outlined as follows:

• All new electricity connections must be made strictly based on metering before connection. That is, no new customer should be connected by a DisCo without a meter first being installed at the premises.
• All customers have the right to electricity supply in a safe and reliable manner.
• All customers have the right to a properly installed and functional meter.
• All customers have the right to be properly informed and educated about the electricity service.
• All customers have the right to transparent electricity billing.
• All un-metered customers should be issued with electricity bills strictly based on NERC’s estimated billing methodology.
• It is the customer’s right to be notified in writing before any disconnection of electricity service by the DisCo, following NERC’s guidelines.
• All customers have the right to receive a refund for overbilling.
• Customers have the right to file complaints and prompt investigations of complaints regarding electricity supply and other billing issues. They should send all complaints to the nearest business unit of the DisCo serving them.
• If a complaint is not satisfactorily addressed, customers have the right to escalate the issue to the NERC Forum Office within the coverage area of the DisCo. Furthermore, customers have the right to appeal the decision of the NERC Forum Office by writing a petition to the Commission.
• It is the customer’s right to contest any electricity bill.
• Any un-metered customer disputing their estimated bill has the right not to pay the disputed bill. They should only pay the last undisputed bill while the contested bill goes through the dispute resolution process of NERC.
• Finally, it is not the responsibility of electricity customers or communities to buy, replace, or repair electricity transformers, poles, and related equipment used in the supply of electricity.”

Contrary testimonies

Nairametrics recently came across disgruntled customers who have overbilling issues and have reached out to their DisCos, yet there has been no refund.

Imoh Heavens, an estimated billing customer in Port Harcourt, told our correspondent that he has been visiting the Port Harcourt distribution company for a prepaid meter and was told to settle his arrears, which did not make any sense.

He said that sometime in 2022, his district had no power supply for 6 months, yet the DisCo brought bills for that period.

He stated further that he cannot pay for what he did not use. He said:

“These people are sucking us dry; they only provide prepaid meters to the rich people and those living in the estates. Last I heard, the cost of prepaid meters was N140,000 for the 3-phased and N78,000 for the 2-phased.

“How can someone have faith in DisCos and NERC? I have lost faith in them. Are they being regulated? Prior to this time, I was paying N7,000 to N9,000 at most, now it is between N17,000 and N20,000, where will I get the money from?

“I see all kinds of directives but are they being implemented? The other time our transformer got bad, it was a rich resident who replaced it for us, the DisCo does not care.”

Meanwhile, an Ikeja resident, Mrs. Christina Aleyideino said that in August 2022, Ikeja Electricity Distribution Company (Ikeja Electric) suddenly stopped reading post-paid meters calling them obsolete.

Meanwhile, her attempts to get prepaid meter has proved unfruitful.

According to her, the DisCo can send a monthly bill of up to N40,000/month for a family of two people, which is outrageous, considering the level of power consumption that does not tally.

She has made several attempts to make complaints at Ikeja Electric with no success.

She however expressed joy that the National Assembly has taken steps to ensure that overbilling by DisCos is criminalized in the country.

 

Nairametrics

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine reports fierce fighting in northeast

A senior Ukrainian official reported heavy fighting in the northeast of the country on Sunday, with Kyiv's forces holding their lines and making gains in some areas.

Russia's military said it had halted Ukrainian forces in the northeast. The military also said it brought down down three Ukrainian drones which had tried to strike Moscow and damaged a high-rise building reported to house government offices.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy described Sunday as "a good day, a powerful day" at the front, particularly near Bakhmut, where Ukrainian forces say they are retaking ground lost when Russian forces took the city in May.

Ukraine did not directly claim responsibility for the drone attacks but Zelenskiy said the war was "gradually returning to Russia's territory - to its symbolic centres".

Russian forces launched the latest in a series of night-time air attacks, striking what officials said was a "non-residential building" in the northeastern city of Kharkiv. The hit started a fire but there were no reports of casualties.

Zelenskiy reported that the death toll in a Russian strike on a school in the northern town of Sumy on Saturday had risen to two after rescue teams cleared rubble from the site.

Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar said Russian forces were "trying to drive us out" of elevated positions in the northeast occupied by Moscow after its February 2022 invasion, but retaken later by Ukrainian troops.

The Russians' key task, she told national television, was to "divert our forces from the Bakhmut area, where we have a successful offensive".

"They have attacked endlessly this week. But our troops resist the attacks and sometimes push them back with heavy losses," she said.

Maliar said the Russians had suffered "no fewer losses than during the heated battles in Bakhmut", which fell to Russian forces after more than 10 months of fighting.

Ukraine last month launched a counter offensive focusing on a southward campaign to drive a wedge between Russian forces holding territory in the east and the annexed Crimean peninsula, and on winning back ground around Bakhmut.

But fierce fighting has also flared around the Ukrainian -held northeastern towns of Kupiansk and Lyman.

Maliar said Russian forces were also "tenaciously trying to seize back" areas on the southern front taken by Ukraine.

Ukraine, she said, had recaptured 200 sq. km. (77 sq. miles) in the south, but advances were limited by entrenched Russian positions and mines.

Russia's Defence Ministry, in its daily account of military activity, said its forces had spotted and deployed rockets to destroy an аrmoured brigade of Ukrainian troops near Svatove, a key Russian-held town in the northeast.

Russian forces, it said, had also repelled four Ukrainian attacks near the town of Lyman, further south.

The battlefield accounts could not be independently verified.

 

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Russia’s Battlegroup South helicopters destroy tank, two armored personnel carriers

Army aviation helicopter crews destroyed a tank and two armored personnel vehicles, including a US-made M113, in the Donetsk People's Republic settlements of Kleshcheevka and Andreevka near Artemovsk, head of the group’s press center Vadim Astafyev told TASS.

"The aviation forces of the Battlegroup South attacked four points of temporary deployment of Ukrainian Armed Forces units in the Soledar-Artemovsk direction. In addition, the crews of army aviation helicopters destroyed a tank and two armored personnel carriers, one of them a US M113, near the settlements of Kleshcheevka and Andreevka," he stated.

He also added that the artillery of Russia’s Battlegroup South hit an ammunition depot and a launch site for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Krasnoye and Belaya Gora in the Donetsk People's Republic.

"Special forces units of Russia’s Battlegroup South identified and then destroyed by artillery fire three infantry groups with a total strength of up to 14 Ukrainian servicemen, a machine-gun crew, a self-propelled artillery mount, and a mortar in their positions near the settlements of Dyleyevka, Ozaryanovka, Spornoye, Pobeda and Maryinka," he added.

** Russian Navy to receive 30 combat ships this year — Putin

Russia persistently builds up the might of its Navy that will receive 30 combat ships of various classes this year alone, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the Main Naval Parade on the occasion of Russia’s Navy Day on Sunday.

"Today Russia confidently implements its large-scale objectives of the national maritime policy and persistently builds up the might of its Navy. This year alone, 30 warships of various classes will join it," the Russian leader said.

The combat ships that have entered service with the Russian Navy include the missile corvette Merkury named in honor of the Black Sea Fleet’s sailing ship that gained its glory in the 1828-1829 Russo-Turkish War, the head of state pointed out.

"It is good that the tradition of giving its name to Russian Navy ships has been revived. The St. George’s naval flag was raised aboard the new Merkury as a sign of our preserved naval traditions, a symbol of courage, valor and steadfastness of naval sailors," Putin said, stressing that "these qualities are displayed in full today as well."

This year, Russia’s Main Naval Parade on the Neva River and in the Kronshtadt roadstead involved 45 combat ships, gunboats and submarines of the Northern, Pacific, Baltic and Black Sea Fleets and about 3,000 troops.

 

Reuters/Tass

Given all the uncertainty in the world economy today, we have been reminded that for all the authority economics commands, it is still a social science. Many major developments over the past year have departed from the consensus forecast, exposing the limitations of our understanding.

Most notably, many experts and forecasters predicted a recession in the United States this year. But not only have we avoided that (so far); the latest inflation figures have led many sell-side forecasters to write down the probability of a recession happening at all. Suddenly, financial markets are entertaining the idea that policymakers can indeed achieve a soft landing: inflation returns toward its target level (around 2%) without the need for a recession and a sharp increase in unemployment. Equity markets thus are rising, despite remarkably (and perhaps understandably) cautious investor sentiment.

The situation across the Atlantic is also overturning forecasts. Although the United Kingdom’s economy seems to be constantly beleaguered – with GDP growth remaining meager – it nonetheless has avoided a technical recession (defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth). Will the next positive surprise be a sharp reduction in inflation? One issue that pessimists (including the Bank of England) focus on is wage inflation, which summons comparisons to the 1970s wage-price spiral. That episode inaugurated the long era of monetarist orthodoxy, which required that stringent anti-inflation measures take priority over most other economic-policy objectives.

Given the complexity of the UK’s macroeconomic situation, I am still waiting to see if the new optimism sticks. It is worth remembering that, before the pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine, the UK government was a vocal advocate of higher real (inflation-adjusted) wages. Now, its wish is being granted: labor representatives are determined to seek higher nominal wages in response to the sharp, unexpected increases in consumer prices. Policymakers thus should be praying for headline inflation to fall significantly, as that would allow them to claim credit for boosting real wages without the need for an increase in nominal pay.

Another irony, in the UK and some other countries, is the role of monetary growth as a leading indicator of inflationary pressure. Following the large monetary and fiscal stimulus packages rolled out during the pandemic, commentators who focus on the money supply predicted, accurately, that inflation would increase. But many of these commentators had been saying the same thing for the past decade, in response to central banks’ unconventional monetary policies. Their forecasts were wrong until Covid-19 arrived. If they are monetarist true believers, they should be advocating less monetary tightening now that growth in the money supply has slowed.

Between the slight weakening of commodity prices, slower monetary growth, the significant increases in interest rates, and the general stability of long-term inflation expectations, I see good reasons to side, cautiously, with the optimistic camp. But I would hasten to add that central bankers must remain vigilant in guarding against any return to the 1970s.

As always, much will depend on China. After the government abruptly ended its “zero-Covid” policy late last year, growth briefly shot up, and analysts rushed to revise their forecasts. But over the past three months, Chinese economic growth has been disappointing, forcing many to revise their forecasts once again.

Moreover, there is no sign of increased inflation in China, challenging the long-held assumption that China would eventually go from exporting deflation to exporting inflation. True, some might say that the redirection of business and investment away from China will be inflationary; but I have my doubts, considering that some of these moves will be to countries with even lower costs than China. In any case, Chinese policymakers clearly will need to address the weakening of growth and consumption, not to mention other major problems such as rising youth unemployment.

Looking ahead, a major variable to watch will be global commodity prices, which have undergone a surprising reversal since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. But it is not clear why that happened or whether it is sustainable. My own hunch is that there have been larger-than-expected shifts toward efficient energy consumption and a wider adoption of alternatives than what was forecasted. But we will need more time and data to determine whether this is really the case.

For the past two decades, it has been fashionable among academic economists to assume that excess global savings have resulted in a lower natural rate of interest. While I respect many of those who held this view, I was never convinced by it, because I saw low interest rates as a consequence of persistently lower-than-expected inflation, which in turn justified accommodative monetary policies. Perhaps now reality is starting to catch up. If so, the long-term “new normal” would be much more normal indeed. Interest rates, finally, would remain above the actual or desired level of inflation.

 

Project Syndicate