Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has started clearing the foreign exchange (FX) forwards backlog in banks.

Payment commenced on Wednesday, a source in the apex bank said while confirming the development.

On September 22, Wale Edun, the finance minister and coordinating minister of the economy, said the overdue forward payments were behind the depreciation of the naira.

Edun said settling the forex backlog would increase FX supply in the foreign exchange market and strengthen the local currency against the dollar.

The naira, on Tuesday, depreciated to N1,185 per dollar at the FX parallel market and strengthened to N786 at the official window.

Olayemi Cardoso, CBN governor, on September 26, said the apex bank was working on settling the $7 billion FX backlog. The finance minister later said Nigeria is expecting to receive $10 billion to ease liquidity in the FX market.

‘CITI BANK, KEYSTONE BANK HAVE RECEIVED PAYMENTS’

Commenting on the development, Charles Abuede, the chief economist and researcher at Cowry Asset Management Limited, said the settlement by the CBN is a positive move for the Nigerian economy, the FX market, the value of the naira, and the country’s gross external reserves.

He told TheCable that more than 10 banks — including Stanbic IBTC, Citi Bank, Standard Chartered — have received payments.

“Based on available information, over 10 banks such as Citi (got 100%), StanChart (80%), Stanbic (75%), UBA, Heritage, Keystone, Signature, Parallex, Greenwich Merchant, etc, have been settled by the CBN and more are counting,” the economist said.

“In recent days, there has been a gradual increase in the gross external reserves, which is a positive sign for dollar inflow and provides some relief for the naira.

“Additionally, we anticipate that this move will lead to a more favorable interaction of the local currency in the foreign exchange market, aligning with the exchange rate movements between the naira and the U.S. dollar, where the Naira has been appreciating in various FX segments.

“Furthermore, this step is expected to improve Nigeria’s credit ratings from international rating agencies.

“In September, the Russel FTSE announced its intentions to downgrade Nigeria’s index to ‘unclassified’ due to the rising FX backlogs and the challenges faced by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) in repatriating their incomes and dividends to their home countries, primarily caused by CBN’s liquidity issues.”

Abuede said the FX backlogs had led to rating companies downgrading Nigeria’s status in the business community — one of such being MSCI revealing plans to reclassify Nigeria’s indexes from frontier to ‘Standalone’ status by February of 2024 due to the unsettled forex.

The Cable

A Nigerian Navy patrol in collaboration with the Maritime Component of Operation AWATSE has discovered two punctured points along the NNPCL pipeline in Lagos.

Base Information Officer of the NNS Beecroft, H. A. Collins, disclosed this in a statement on Thursday.

Ms Collins, sub-lieutenant, said the discovery was made on 1 November between ATLAS COVE and Ijegun.

She said the NNS Beecroft patrol team responded to credible intelligence leading to the discovery of the punctured points.

She stated that the points were being utilised by saboteurs to connect hoses and pumping machines to siphon huge quantities of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), conveyed along the pipeline thereby posing a significant threat to the nation’s product availability as well as economic well-being of Nigerians.

Collins said following the discovery of the punctured points, the NNPCL has been alerted, and immediate repairs are underway to stall losses.

She added that simultaneously, efforts are ongoing to detect and rectify other potential vulnerabilities along the pipeline, ensuring a comprehensive approach to deter future illicit activities.

PT

Pressure rises on Israel to pause fighting and ease siege as battles intensify near Gaza City

Israeli troops battling Hamas militants encircled Gaza City on Thursday, the military said, as the Palestinian death toll rose above 9,000. U.S. and Arab leaders raised pressure on Israel to ease its siege of Gaza and at least briefly halt its attacks in order to aid civilians.

Nearly four weeks after Hamas’ deadly rampage in Israel sparked the war, U.S Secretary of State Antony Blinken was heading to the region for talks Friday in Israel and Jordan following President Joe Biden’s suggestion for a humanitarian “pause” in the fighting. The aim would be to let in aid for Palestinians and let out more foreign nationals and wounded. Around 800 people left over the past two days.

Israel did not immediately respond to Biden’s suggestion. But Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has previously ruled out a cease-fire, said Thursday: “We are advancing … Nothing will stop us.” He vowed to destroy Hamas rule in the Gaza Strip.

An airstrike Thursday smashed a residential building to rubble in the Bureij refugee camp several miles south of Gaza City.

One boy, his face covered in blood, cried as workers dug him out of the dirt and wreckage. Others rushed wounded men and women, covered in dust, away on stretchers or wrapped in blankets. At a nearby hospital, doctors tried to stanch the flow of blood from the head of a child laid out on the floor.

At least 15 people were killed, Gaza’s Civil Defense spokesperson said, and residents said dozens more were believed buried. The strike took place in the southern zone where Israel has told residents of the north to flee, but which has also faced repeated bombardment.

Blinken’s visit will unfold as Arab countries, including those allied with the U.S. and at peace with Israel, have expressed mounting unease with the war. Jordan recalled its ambassador from Israel and told Israel’s envoy to remain out of the country until there’s a halt to the war and the “humanitarian catastrophe.”

A flurry of heavy explosions raised clouds of smoke over Gaza City on Thursday. Al Jazeera television, which continues to broadcast from the city, said Israeli airstrikes were hitting an area of apartment towers in the Tel al-Hawa neighborhood.

The barrage hit around 100 meters (yards) from Al-Quds Hospital, the Palestinian Red Crescent Society said in post on X. It said there were deaths and injuries but gave no more details.

There was no immediate comment by the Israeli military on the strikes. Israel says it targets Hamas fighters and infrastructure and that the group endangers civilians by operating among them and in tunnels under civilian areas.

BLINKEN’S NEW FORAY

The U.S. has pledged unwavering support for Israel after Hamas militants killed hundreds of men, women and children on Oct. 7 and took some 240 people captive.

But the Biden administration has pushed for Israel to let more aid into Gaza amid growing alarm in the region over the destruction and humanitarian crisis in the tiny Mediterranean enclave.

More than 3,700 Palestinian children have been killed in 25 days of fighting — more than six times the 560 children that the U.N. has reported killed in 19 months of war in Ukraine as of Oct. 8. Bombardment has driven more than half the territory’s 2.3 million people from their homes. Food, water and fuel are running low under Israel’s siege, and overwhelmed hospitals warn they are on the verge of collapse.

Israel has allowed more than 260 trucks carrying food and medicine through the crossing, but aid workers say it’s not nearly enough. Israeli authorities have refused to allow fuel in, saying Hamas is hoarding fuel for military use and would steal new supplies.

White House national security spokesman John Kirby said the U.S. was not advocating for a general cease-fire but a “temporary, localized” pause.

In a sign that Israel might be feeling the international pressure, the military put out a late-night statement, in English, insisting it did not want civilians to be harmed.

“I want to make something very clear,” military spokesman Brig. Gen. Daniel Hagari said in a recorded video. “Israel is at war with Hamas. Israel is not at war with the civilians in Gaza.”

Israel and the U.S. seem to have no clear plan for what would come next if Hamas rule in Gaza is brought down — a key question on Blinken’s agenda on his upcoming visit, according to the State Department.

Earlier in the week, Blinken suggested that the Palestinian Authority govern Gaza. Hamas drove the authority’s forces out of Gaza in its 2007 takeover of the territory. The authority now holds limited powers in some parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank.

MOVING ON GAZA CITY

Military officials said Israeli forces had completely encircled Gaza City, a densely packed cluster of neighborhoods that Israel says is the center of Hamas military infrastructure and includes a vast network of underground tunnels, bunkers and command centers.

Israeli forces are “fighting in a built-up, dense, complex area,” said the military’s chief of staff, Herzi Halevy.

Hagari said Israeli forces were in “face to face” battles with militants, calling in airstrikes and shelling when needed. He said they were inflicting heavy losses on Hamas fighters and destroying their infrastructure with engineering equipment.

Casualties on both sides are expected to rise as Israeli troops advance toward the dense residential neighborhoods of Gaza City.

On Thursday, Israeli planes dropped leaflets warning residents to immediately evacuate the Shati refugee camp, which borders Gaza City’s center.

“Time is up,” the leaflets read, warning that strikes “with crushing force” against Hamas fighters were coming.

Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians remain in the path of fighting in northern Gaza, despite Israel’s repeated calls for them to evacuate. Many have crowded into U.N. facilities, hoping for safety.

Four U.N. schools-turned-shelter in northern Gaza and Bureij were hit in the past day, killing 24 people, according to Philippe Lazzarini, general-secretary of the U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees, known as UNRWA.

At least 9,061 Palestinians have been killed in the war, mostly women and minors, and more than 32,000 people have been wounded, the Gaza Health Ministry said Thursday, without providing a breakdown between civilians and fighters. The death toll is without precedent in decades of Israeli-Palestinian violence.

Over 1,400 people have died on the Israeli side, mainly civilians killed during Hamas’ initial attack, also an unprecedented figure.

Nineteen Israeli soldiers have been killed in Gaza since the start of the ground operation. A suspected militant shot to death an Israeli reserve soldier driving near a West Bank settlement Thursday, the military and medics said.

Rocket fire from Gaza into Israel, and daily skirmishes between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah militants, have disrupted life for millions of Israelis and forced an estimated 250,000 to evacuate border towns.

Rockets fired from Lebanon injured two people when they hit the northern Israeli town of Kiryat Shmona, medical services said. Hamas said earlier on Thursday it fired 12 rockets from Lebanon.

Hezbollah attacked Israeli positions in the north with drones, mortar fire and suicide drones. The Israeli military said it retaliated with warplanes and helicopter gunships. Four Lebanese civilians were killed, state media there said.

Four Palestinians, including three teenagers, were shot dead Thursday in different parts of the occupied West Bank, the Palestinian Health Ministry said. More than 130 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank since the start of the war, mainly in violent protests and gunbattles during Israeli arrest raids.

MORE DEPARTURES FROM GAZA

On Thursday, 342 Palestinians with foreign passports, 21 injured in the fighting and an additional 21 companions left Gaza through the Rafah crossing into Egypt, according to Wael Abu Omar, a spokesman for the Palestinian Crossings Authority.

At least 335 people with foreign passports, and 76 injured and their companions, were evacuated Wednesday, he said.

U.S. officials said 79 Americans were among those who have gotten out. The U.S. has said it is trying to evacuate 400 Americans with their families.

Egypt has said it will not accept an influx of Palestinian refugees, fearing Israel will not allow them to return to Gaza after the war.

AP

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

US imposes sweeping new sanctions targeting Russia over war in Ukraine

The United States on Thursday imposed sweeping new measures against Moscow over the war in Ukraine, targeting Russia's future energy capabilities, sanctions evasion and a suicide drone that has been a menace to Ukrainian troops and equipment, among others, in sanctions on hundreds of people and entities.

The latest measures target a major entity involved in the development, operation and ownership of a massive project in Siberia known as Arctic-2 LNG, the State Department said in a statement. The project expected to ship chilled natural gas, known as liquefied natural gas to global markets.

Washington also targeted the KUB-BLA and Lancet suicide drones being used by the Russian military in Ukraine, designating a network it accused of procuring items in support of their production as well as the creator and designer of the drones.

The Biden administration on Thursday added a dozen Russian companies to a trade blacklist for supporting Russia's military with drones that could be used to aid in Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, the Commerce Department said in a statement.

The U.S. also cracked down on sanctions evasion in the United Arab Emirates, Turkey and China, as the Treasury Department said companies based in the countries continue to send high priority dual-use goods to Russia, including components Moscow relies on for its weapons systems.

Seven Russia-based banks and dozens of industrial firms were also hit with sanctions by the Treasury Department, including Gazpromneft Catalytic Systems LLC, which Treasury said manufactures chemical agents for advanced oil refining in Russia.

The Kremlin said on Thursday ahead of the action that it expected the West to impose ever tougher sanctions on it over the war, but that there was a growing sense that such penalties hurt Western interests while Russia's economy was adapting well.

LNG, LANCET DRONE

With the sanctions on limited liability company Arctic LNG 2, and previous measures imposed on the project in September, the U.S. is trying to target Russia's upcoming energy production, similar to how it targeted its future deep-sea, shale and Arctic oil production after Moscow's invasion of Crimea in 2014. All of these hard-to-produce projects depend on Western technology.

The U.S., itself a large LNG producer that exports to Europe, is also trying to reduce Russia's LNG shipments to Europe, which has only banned Russian gas sent via pipeline.

Arctic-2 LNG has been expecting to start exporting soon and it is uncertain how much Russian LNG would be blocked by the new measures. The largest Russian LNG producer Novatek said in September it would start shipments from Arctic-2 LNG early next year.

The United States, European Union and other Western nations have imposed rafts of sanctions on Moscow following its invasion of Ukraine, including targeting Russian banks and President Vladimir Putin, as the partners seek to hold Russia to account for the conflict that has killed thousands and reduced cities to rubble.

"We will continue to use the tools at our disposal to raise the cost for Russia of waging this war and promote accountability for its atrocities and abuses in Ukraine," U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement.

Thursday's action marks the first measures Washington has taken directly targeting the Lancet drone, an angular grey tube with two sets of four wings that has been an increasing threat on Ukraine's frontlines, according to Ukrainian solders.

Washington targeted limited liability company ZALA Aero, a Russia-based manufacturer the State Department said designs, manufactures and sells loitering munition and suicide drones to the Russian Ministry of Defense, as well as A Level Aerosystems CST, a Russia-based entity manufacturing and selling drones under the ZALA brand.

The owner of the companies, Aleksandr Zakharov, was also targeted, as were his wife, daughter and sons, and companies they own. The State Department said Zakharov is the creator and designer of the drones.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy hailed the measures in his nightly video address as "just what is needed."

"And every sanctions decision must work in full, so that there is no chance for Russia to bypass them."

Zelenskiy's chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, welcomed sanctions tied to the Lancet drone.

"I am very pleased that...restrictions are being tightened against companies associated with the military-industrial complex of the Russian Federation...,"Yermak said on Telegram.

SANCTIONS EVASION

Washington has stepped up diplomatic pressure on countries and private companies globally to ensure enforcement of the barrage of sanctions it has unleashed on Moscow.

Among those designated on Thursday were Turkish and UAE firms, including companies that sent high-priority goods to Russia and firms that have shipped aviation parts and equipment.

Three Chinese entities - two that the Treasury said have conducted hundreds of shipments of electro-optical equipment, cameras and other items, and one that has shipped radar components to Russia-based firms - were also targeted.

The State Department also imposed sanctions on multiple defense-related entities and procurement companies in the UAE.

Construction companies, Russian officials and a metals and mining company implementing a project to develop the largest titanium ore deposit in the world located in Russia were also hit with sanctions.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Public support for Ukraine falling in US – Gallup

Public support for sending aid to Ukraine is continuing to decline in the US, with a new Gallup poll suggesting that many Americans are growing tired of Washington shipping billions of dollars in financial assistance to Kiev.

According to the survey published on Thursday, 41% of respondents said they believe the US government is doing “too much” to help Ukraine. This marks a increase of 12 points in the sentiment since a previous poll was conducted in June.

Meanwhile, the number of people who think the US is doing “the right amount” saw a drop from 43% in June to just 33% in the latest survey. Only a quarter of respondents said Washington’s current level of support for Ukraine was “not enough.”

When asked whether the US should provide financial assistance to Ukraine for “as long as Ukraine requests it” or if there should be a time limit, a total of 61% of respondents said they  believed US aid to Kiev should be limited.

The Gallup poll also found that support for Ukraine was more or less split along party lines, with Republicans and Independents being less likely to support continued assistance to Kiev.

Last month, another survey conducted by Reuters-Ipsos also found that a growing number of Americans were opposed to supplying additional military aid to Ukraine, with even Democratic support seeing a sharp decline in the past several months.

The poll found that only 41% of respondents felt Washington should continue to provide weapons to Ukraine. In June, that number stood at 65%. Among Democrats, support for military aid stood at 52% in the October poll, compared to 81% in June when Kiev’s forces launched their much-touted counteroffensive that was expected to be a turning point in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

As Kiev ultimately failed to make any significant gains in the several-months-long campaign, instead suffering enormous casualties, support for continued US aid for Ukraine has also diminished among lawmakers. 

In early October, Republican senators even threatened a complete government shutdown unless billions in aid for Ukraine was dropped from a government spending bill.

President Joe Biden has since been attempting to find a workaround to the issue and trying to convince GOP lawmakers to approve a $105 billion spending package intended to cover the security needs of Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, comparing the Ukraine conflict to World War II and arguing that “patriotic American workers are building the arsenal of democracy and serving the cause of freedom.” 

Meanwhile, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu stated on Wednesday that, despite continued shipments of NATO weapons, “the Kiev regime is losing” and failing to advance on the front lines, suffering high battlefield losses and decreasing morale among its troops.

Reuters/RT

Former vice president and presidential candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubakar, said on Monday that Nigeria was the bigger loser in last week’s decision by the Supreme Court to uphold the election of President Bola Tinubu. That was a convenient exaggeration to hide his misery.

But it was unnecessary. After unsuccessfully contesting to be president six times, it would have been human for him to admit that this loss, on what might well be his last attempt, was difficult to bear. He didn’t need to frame it as a national tragedy, because quite frankly, it wasn’t.

It’s the tragedy of the political elite enabled by the choices made by politicians, including members of Abubakar’s PDP, which also used to be Labour Party candidate Peter Obi’s home.

Even if Abubakar or Obi had won the 2023 presidential election, it would have been almost impossible to overturn. It just happened that they were at the receiving end.

Transmission and forgery tourism

Yet, the pursuit of redress need not be frustratingly difficult and complicated. If, for example, the National Assembly had made Section 60 of the Electoral Act on the electronic transmission of results compulsory, and not discretionary whatever the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) might have said later, it would have had no option but to comply. 

The commission waffled because the law is not binding. Its non-compliance undermined the integrity of the system and opened the door to self-help, a point acknowledged in the judgment of the Supreme Court.

Another obvious source of distress for Abubakar and Obi, particularly Abubakar, was that the court refused to admit and consider the pleading that Tinubu’s certificate from the Chicago State University (CSU) purportedly filed as part of his documents to INEC, was forged. 

After losing the first round of legal challenge at the tribunal, Abubakar’s counsel mounted a vigorous attempt at a US court to obtain Tinubu’s certificate  and succeeded in spite of inexplicable efforts by the president’s team to block them. 

Armed with the deposition from the US court, Abubakar went to the Supreme Court believing that he had eventually found the smoking gun. But there were at least two major problems which serious lawyers from other parts of the world watching the live Supreme Court proceedings on October 24 would have been embarrassed to see. 

One, the deposition filed by Abubakar’s lawyers did not comply with the rules of evidence in a Nigerian court, which make the certification of such documents by the issuing courts or authorities mandatory. Instead, the Supreme Court said, the certification of the document was done in the chambers of Abubakar’s lawyers. This negligence – to have either the US court or CSU certify the deposition alleging forgery – handed a loophole to a legal system notorious for its embarrassing fastidiousness to technicalities. 

Heart of the matter

But that was only a part of the coup de grace. Two, the case lost its way even before it reached the tribunal, which in the presidential election, is the court of appeal. 

The whole point of the contest was not whether a forgery had been committed, though it may have been material at an earlier stage. The point was whether Abubakar’s lawyers could prove that the presidential election on February 25 had been so significantly rigged that Tinubu could not have won it. 

And to do that Atiku didn’t need to go the US, except if he was doing so as Rauf Aregbesola’s lawyers did in Osun State in Rauf Aregbesola & 2 Ors vs. Olagunsoye Oyinlola & 2 Ors (2011) 9 NWLR Pt. 1253 Pg. 582, where the team used forensic help from abroad to make its case. 

It was the inability of Abubakar’s legal team to meet this herculean challenge that forced them on a forgery tourism – a sexier, far less complicated route, which regrettably, often ends in a heartbreak.

In the few cases where the Supreme Court has overturned the election of governors – never those of presidents – the decisions, especially in the cases of Rotimi Chibuike Amaechi vs. INEC & 2 Ors S.C. 252/2007; Peter Obi vs. INEC & 2 Ors S.C. 123/2007 NGSC 50; and Senator Hope Uzodinma & APC vs. Rt Hon. Emeka Ihedioha & 2 Ors S.C.1462/2019, have been mainly on technical grounds. In a presidential election, however, the petitioner is faced with a different, higher level of tyranny. 

He will have to prove in court, within 180 days, that elections in a substantial number of the 176,846 polling units scattered in some of the country’s remotest villages and involving an estimated 187 million odd ballots had been rigged. And this would happen in a court barely equipped or prepared for such a grind.

Moving Olympus

On top of that, the petitioner would also have to climb this evidential Kilimanjaro when the defendant is already at the peak of it, ensconced in office and exercising the full powers of incumbency. 

In the face of such odds, Abubakar’s legal team desperately grasped at two straws – the allegation that Tinubu forged his certificate, and the claim that he ought not to have been declared winner because he failed to get 25 percent of the votes in Abuja, the federal capital.

On a good day, it’s improbable that any of Abubakar’s or Obi’s lawyers would say, with a straight face, that they believe that the constitution created Abuja as an enclave of super voters. Even for a constitution widely criticised for its clutter, it would be taking a malicious lack of clarity too far to suggest that the writers meant that Abuja voters were greater than the rest of us. 

Not even in the US, famous for its “federational” oddities does the capital, Washington DC, hold an electoral veto vote over the other states. In fact, the whole point of the Electoral College is to equalise the states. Nigerian courts have also made this point repeatedly. But obviously, the election petition industry will stop at nothing to reinvent its growth, expansion and prosperity.

Some have used the scathing valedictory address by retired Supreme Court judge, Musa Dattijo Muhammad, delivered the day after the court’s judgment as evidence of lost hope in the judiciary. That’s exaggerated, and hardly supported by the jurisprudential philosophy of His Lordship. His call for introspection was the right one, but his record is a cautionary tale for those inclined to take his latter-day pseudo-radicalism as gospel.

Way forward

There are three things that could minimise this regular cycle of bitter election combats, which take a toll on everyone, except those for whom the combats have become a cash cow. 

One, cut down the layers of litigation. In the presidential election, for example, the Supreme Court should be the first and last court. It used to be so here. And it is still so in Ghana and Kenya. In Kenya, after complaints have been made and investigated by the election management body, any party that is not satisfied goes to the Supreme Court, which has two weeks to dispose of the case.

Two, shift the burden of proof to INEC. Again, Kenya provides a good example. The election board in that country receives petitions, if the intra-party mechanism fails to settle them. It also investigates complaints fairly transparently, even though members of the board are appointed by the president but confirmed by the legislature. In Nigeria, the election board is sometimes the playground of politicians, and is frequently accused of impeding petitioners’ access to election records. 

And three, election petitions should be disposed of before swearing in. Once a winner has been declared and sworn in, a petitioner faces a near-impossible task of over-turning the result.

Since Abubakar has said he is not going anywhere, he would do well to mobilise his party to ensure that whether it is him or someone else in 2027, the party’s candidate would be spared his current misery. And it would also be in the enlightened self-interest of the ruling party to join him in fixing the broken system.

** Ishiekwene is Editor-In-Chief of LEADERSHIP

We all have to communicate with people on a daily basis, so it's inevitable that we'll occasionally be put off, if not downright offended, by the things we hear. But consider the possibility that sometimes you may be guilty of rubbing people the wrong way.

As a public speaking trainer, I always urge people to think carefully about their listeners before speaking. It's impossible to evaluate every word ahead of time, but it's helpful to be aware of phrases or attitudes that keep us from communicating effectively. 

Here are seven rude phrases that people with poor speech etiquette always use — and what to say instead:

1. "Do you want to ...?"

This phrase is great when you're offering someone a choice ("Do you want to go to lunch with me?"). But as a way of delivering orders ("Do you want to take the trash?"), its indirect fake-politeness comes across as belittling.

What to say instead: State your request directly. It's courteous to broach a request by asking, "Will you do me a favor?" After all, people generally like to pitch in. But they don't like to feel manipulated.

2. "Here's the thing ..."

This phrase insists that whatever follows will be the final, authoritative take on the subject at hand. Even when used inadvertently, it can sound a bit self-important. Truly authoritative people don't tend to waste time on throat-clearing statements.

What to say instead: If you're offering an opinion, consider prefacing your remarks with "I think ..." These two words remove any suggestion that you're pompously issuing a declaration. 

3. "Right?"  

In recent years, it's become normalized for this pushy rhetorical nudge to follow questions, especially in interviews with athletes and politicians ("This is the most important stretch of the season, right?" or "We've never seen a circumstance like this, right?")

At best, it's a useless bit of filler. But it can also feel like a manipulative insistence upon agreement.

What to say instead:  If you want someone's opinion, ask for it in a neutral way, rather than demanding confirmation: "I can't think of a more critical moment for the team. Can you?"

4. "Well, figure out a way." 

This phrase is a conversation ender. It's mean! While it's important to delegate, leadership demands that if an employee needs help or tries to communicate about a roadblock, your job is to help them work through it — not to insult them. 

What to say instead: Warmer language and an open approach will always encourage better exploration of solutions. A simple shift might be to say: "Well, let's talk about it and figure out a way."

5. "It is what it is."

In my experience, this phrase is usually used as shorthand for "stop complaining." If someone is asking for sympathy or assistance, you may or may not wish (or have time) to help them, but at least be kind about ending the conversation.

What to say instead: Try offering a bit of curiosity and empathy. You don't need to be phony or overly demonstrative. But saying something as simple as, "That's tough. I'm sorry you're going through that," can make a difference by allowing the other person to feel heard.

6. "Obviously ..."

This word subtly or not-so-subtly conveys that anyone disagreeing with the speaker is wrong. Even if you don't realize it, using it can make you seem arrogant.

What to say instead: Skip it altogether and remember that silence can be a beautiful thing. The most effective speakers know that proving your superiority or correctness is a waste of time and wins you no friends.

7. "If you want my honest opinion ..." (or, "I was just joking.")

First of all, did anyone ask for your opinion? If so, they probably don't expect or need a rude response masquerading as honesty. 

What to say instead: People want help, support and solutions. Saying "maybe" instead of offering your "honest opinion" is a perfectly fine preface. Saying "sorry" if a rude comment falls flat is far more productive than a faux-diplomatic justification for spite.

** John Bowe is a speech trainer, award-winning journalist, and author of "I Have Something to Say: Mastering the Art of Public Speaking in an Age of Disconnection."

CNBC

Failure to supply crude oil to domestic refineries, including the multi-billion dollar Dangote Refinery, has stalled the production of refined petroleum products at the facilities.

This is also as the 650,000 barrels per day Dangote refinery in Lagos missed the October production projection it had earlier set.

The October production target miss made it the second time in 2023 that Dangote Refinery would raise hopes of Africa, especially Nigeria, of a possible end to petrol importation.

Failure to begin production means that Nigeria will continue to rely on fuel importation.

It was gathered on Wednesday that amid Nigeria’s continued imports of refined petroleum products, its domestic refineries that would have helped refine the commodities were being starved of crude oil.

About five more modular refineries are ready to commence production of refined petroleum products but cannot produce the commodities because of the unavailability of crude oil, according to industry sources.

Also, industry sources stated that the Dangote Refinery in Lekki, Lagos, had yet to receive the required volumes of crude oil needed to produce refined products.

On September 20, 2023, The PUNCH reported that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery was importing crude oil and expected its first cargo in about two weeks, according to the Executive Director, Dangote Group, Devakumar Edwin.

The report stated that though the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited trades crude oil on behalf of Nigeria, in an interview with S&P Global Commodity Insights at the time, Edwin revealed that the NNPCL had committed its crude to other entities.

The Dangote refinery boss did not disclose the other entities receiving the oil company’s crude, but the NNPCL had earlier disclosed in August that it had entered into a $3bn crude oil-for-loan deal with African Export-Import Bank.

The deal allowed the company to pledge future oil production to the bank as repayments for the loan.

Also, Edwin pointed out that the importation of crude by the Dangote refinery was temporary, as the firm would receive supply from NNPCL from November.

Edwin went ahead to state that the firm would begin the production of up to 370,000 barrels per day of crude that would give rise to Automotive Gas Oil, popularly called diesel, and jet fuel in October 2023.

For petrol, the Dangote Group’s boss said the plant would produce it by November 30, 2023.

He said, “Right now, we are ready to receive crude. We are just waiting for the first vessel. And so as soon as it comes in, we can start.”

However, despite the promise to begin production in October, there seemed to be no traces of diesel refining from the facility in October.

The facility was initially billed to begin refining in August, as announced by the President of Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, at the inauguration of the Ibeju-Lekki facility in May.

“Your excellencies, distinguished guests, our first product will be in the market before the end of July or beginning of August this year,” Dangote had said.

However, it was gathered on Wednesday that the crude oil supply situation to the plant had not improved, as the NNPCL was still finding it tough to provide the crude oil required for the Dangote refinery to commence the production of refined products.

Sources at the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission and Federal Ministry of Petroleum Resources confirmed this in Abuja on Wednesday.

“Officials from the Dangote Refinery visited the NUPRC recently to complain about the lack of crude oil required by the plant and why it would be odd for the company to be importing crude when Nigeria produces the commodity,” one of the sources, who pleaded not to be named due to lack of authorisation, stated.

Efforts to get the reaction of the Dangote refinery were unsuccessful, as two spokespersons for the firm did not answer calls to their mobile phones. They also did not respond to text messages sent to them on the matter.

Although the Federal Government blamed the development on Nigeria’s low oil output, operators of domestic refineries raised concerns about the lack of feedstock (crude) for their refineries and how this was stalling the take-off of these plants.

Operators of the modular refineries confirmed on Wednesday that International Oil Companies preferred exporting the commodity to earn dollars, to the detriment of domestic refiners.

The NUPRC had on Saturday announced that more domestic refineries had issued notice to commence the production of refined petroleum products.

It also announced its readiness to enforce domestic crude oil supply obligations that would ensure the availability of crude to indigenous refiners.

Senior officials from the Federal Ministry of Petroleum Resources, the NUPRC, and the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria further confirmed that the number of local refineries set to commence production was about five.

Modular refinery operators under the aegis of CORAN revealed that feedstock supply had remained a severe bottleneck.

They also told one of our correspondents that the three modular refineries currently in operation hardly have adequate volumes of crude.

CORAN is a registered association of modular and conventional refinery companies in Nigeria. Modular refineries are simplified refineries that require significantly less capital investment than traditional full-scale refineries.

Modular refineries ready

Confirming the readiness of domestic refineries, Secretary of CORAN, Olusegun Ilori, said about five modular refineries were ready.

It was gathered that Aradel Holdings and OPAC modular refineries were among the plants ready to refine crude. Operators of the plants requested not to name their refineries at the moment.

Ilori stated, “We have a good number of our members that are ready to produce refined petroleum products, but the major problem limiting them, which is stopping their financiers, is the issue of guaranteed feedstock.

“That is, where are they going to get crude oil to refine? The Petroleum Industry Act has come, and it states that there must be a domestic supply of crude for those who want to refine.

“As I speak with you, we have about five or six more companies coming onboard and are ready to begin production. This is aside from the four modular refineries that are already producing. The four of them are facing a limited supply of crude,” Ilori stated.

Duport Edo Refinery, Walter Smith Refinery, and Niger Delta Refinery are among the modular refineries that are currently in operation. The facilities produce diesel but in limited volumes due to inadequate feedstock.

On why domestic refineries were being starved of crude, Ilori said, “It is because many of those producing the crude want to export it to earn dollars. Also, Nigeria still needs to meet the crude oil production quota approved by OPEC for export.

“So most crude oil producers don’t want to sell to local refiners because some are owing banks and have projected how to export the commodity to clear their debts.”

He however said, “There is a circular from the NUPRC that is now being distributed to oil companies, mandating crude oil production firms to give domestic refineries a particular percentage for local refining.”

This was earlier confirmed by the NUPRC on Saturday when it stated that it was taking steps to ensure the provision of crude oil to domestic refineries.

“As more private refineries indicate readiness to commence production soon in Nigeria, the NUPRC is taking all the necessary steps within the prescriptions of the Petroleum Industry Act (2021) to ensure adequate and consistent supply of feedstock to operators,” the regulator stated, as it cautioned that there would be consequences for sabotaging the process.

Low production

Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, also confirmed the lack of crude to domestic refiners, noting that Nigeria’s inability to meet its crude oil production quota approved by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries was the major limiting factor.

Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries in its World Oil Outlook, launched in Saudi Arabia this month, projected the establishment of new modular refineries in Nigeria would complement the Dangote refinery to lift crude oil sales in Africa.

The Outlook says Africa will see a medium-term distillation capacity of 1.2 million barrels daily due to the upcoming 650,000-capacity Dangote Refinery, which is projected to boost Nigeria’s capacity.

FG comments

In a voice note sent to one of our correspondents by the media aide to the petroleum minister (oil), on the issue, the minister confirmed that domestic refineries were not getting enough crude, but stated that the government was working hard to address this.

“Today, we have cases where we have modular refineries that can refine products, but they have no crude because our production is down. So if we don’t get the upstream right, the midstream and downstream will also not be successful.

“So all our efforts, first of all, should ensure that we resolve the problems bedevilling the upstream sector. Since we came, we have engaged the IOCs (international oil companies), and they told us their concerns.

“I’m sure you heard a short while ago when the IOCs, NNPCL, being coordinated by the Ministry of Petroleum and local content, signed an MoU that there should be timelines instead of allowing the contractual cycle in the sector to take forever.

“And so the era of doing something for two years, what could be done in one month, is gone. It is one of the innovations we have brought to the sector,” Lokpobiri stated.

He, however, noted that since the current administration came on board, “we are steadily increasing production.

“When we were sworn in, the President told me, ‘Lokpobiri, the sole mandate is to go and ensure that you grow our production.’

“And how do we grow our production? If we don’t grow our production, which is upstream, the midstream and downstream will also not be successful.”

The minister said efforts were being intensified to ensure that the modular refineries get crude oil and produce refined white products to keep the country wet.

Nigeria has been producing far below the about 1.8 million barrels per day of crude oil production approved by OPEC. For instance, figures from the NUPRC showed that Nigeria’s crude oil was 1.35mbpd in September 2023.

Findings showed that Nigeria’s crude oil production (excluding condensates) was precisely 1,346,562 barrels per day in September, higher than the 1,181,133 bpd produced in August.

Data from the NUPRC further indicated that in January, February and March, the country’s oil outputs were 1,266,659bpd, 1,292,240bpd, and 1,266,737bpd, respectively.

In April, May, June and July, Nigeria produced 1,004,392bpd; 1,189,332bpd; 1,260,928bpd; and 1,089,089bpd, respectively. All the above crude oil production figures showed that Nigeria’s output was still lower than the OPEC quota.

Punch

Local crude oil producers in Nigeria are demanding to be paid with United States dollars as the currency of their operations by local refiners in Nigeria.

The producers made the demand at a meeting with the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), convened to activate local domestic crude supply obligation.

Section 109 of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) introduces the obligation by the oil industry in Nigeria and stipulates that the supply of crude oil to the domestic market shall be on a willing supplier and willing buyer basis.

The volume of crude oil that oil-producing companies shall dedicate to the domestic crude supply obligation shall be based on an allocation system determined by the NUPRC.

Speaking at the meeting, Oluwadare Agbelese of Watersmith said: “A broader discussion needs to be held with the NMDPRA and the CBN to ensure that off-takers have priority access to forex so that they can pay for the product in a competitive manner  just like the operators would if they were selling to external off-takers.”

Also raising other concerns, Tunde Akinpelu from Aiteo sought to know whether the local refiners have the flexibility on their crude oil appetite. Adding that, “Kaduna refinery does not process all the product sleeves that we have in Nigeria. So in Port Harcourt and Warri.”

Another stakeholder, Abdalla Buba  talked about allowing some time for adjustment in the transition from the pre-PIA regime to  the PIA regime.

Responding to the concerns raised, Chief Executive of the NUPRC, Gbenga Komolafe, said any company that fails to respond to a request for production within a specified period is liable to pay an administrative fine of $10,000 to the NUPRC and shall not be granted an export permit.

He said the move by the commission is in a bid to ensure domestic sufficiency, adding that the nation’s inability to meet it’s domestic refining obligation has impacted negatively on the  state of the economy given the numbers that are rolled out in terms of under-recovery.

Komolafe said: ‘It behooves us as an industry to find a way to make Nigeria a net exporter of refined product. It is important that we engage the industry as we are trying to implement this important provision of the PIA, which is the domestic crude oil obligation.

“The domestic crude oil obligation refers to the requirement imposed by the government on oil producers to allocate a certain portion of their crude oil production for domestic consumption. What we are trying to do in effect as a commission is to begin the enforcement of this critical provision of the PIA.

“There are now firm attempts to  step up domestic refining with some modular refineries.  We now also have the largest refinery in Africa, the Dangote refinery. We have received a request from the refinery to guarantee fixed stock and we believe as a nation, it will be a shame if we cannot meet the fixed stock of the refinery.”

In furtherance of the latest move, The NUPRC has written to the producers to furnish them with copies of the committed agreement for the commission to distill the available barrels that are not committed.

Speaking on the concerns around dollar payment terms, Komolafe said the law already envisages a willing buyer, willing seller situation. “The currency of purchase will either be in naira or in dollars. The parties will sit and agree to a purchase agreement and the currency of the transaction.

“We will also escalate to other stakeholders to see how domestic refiners will be able to meet their obligation.”

Speaking on the implementation mechanism, he said; “we are conscious of the fact that every refinery is configured to take a specific type. We will collate that data and factor obligation in respect to the compactable crude type.

Daily Trust

Nigeria’s foreign debt is expected to rise further to about $51 billion, following President Bola Tinubu’s request to the Senate, seeking approval to borrow additional $7.8 billion and €100million, as part of  his 2022-2024 borrowing plan.

Some financial analysts have debunked the official reasons given for the borrowing, claiming it was rather meant as a bridging loan to cushion the country’s current balance of payment crisis.

Nigeria’s foreign debt as at June 2023, was put at $43.2 billion, while domestic debt is put at N54.1 trillion, bringing public debt to N113.4 trillion.

With the presidential request for new borrowing, coupled with the depreciation of the naira, the total public debt is forecast to reach N130 trillion.

The President in a letter addressed to the Senate yesterday, explained that the request was anchored on an approval given by President Muhammadu Buhari-led administration, after a Federal Executive Council, FEC, meeting early in May 2023.

Senate President Godswill Akpabio, read Tinubu’s request during plenary.

Tinubu’s letter reads: “The Senate may wish to note that the past administration approved the 2022 – 2024 borrowing plan at the Federal Executive Council which was held on the 15th day of May 2023.

“The projects cut across all sectors with specific emphasis on infrastructure, agriculture, health, education, water supply, security and employment as well as financial management reforms, among others.

“The facility of the projects and programmes under the borrowing plan is $7,864,508,559 dollars and then in Euro 100 million euros respectively.

“The Senate is invited to note that following the removal of fuel subsidy and its impact on the economy in the country, African Development Bank, AfDB, and the World Bank Group, WBG, have indicated interest to assist the country in mitigating the economic shores and recent reforms with a sum of $1 billion and $2 billion respectively, in addition to the Federal Executive Council approved 2022-2024 external borrowing plan.

“Consequently, the required approval is in the sum of $7,864,508,559 dollars and in terms of euro, 1000 million euros.

“I would like to underscore the fact that the projects and programmes borrowing plans were selected based on positive technical economic evaluations as well as the expected contribution to the social economic development of the country, including employment generation, skills acquisitions , supporting the emergence of more entrepreneurs, poverty reduction and food security to improve the livelihood of an average Nigerian.

“The projects and programmes will be implemented in all the 36 states of the federation and the federal capital territory “In view of the present economic realities facing the country, it has become imperative that the resolve to using the external borrowing to breach the financing gap which will be applied to key infrastructure projects including power, railway, health, among others.

“Given the nature of this facilities and the need to consolidate the country to normalcy, it has become exigent to request the Senate’s consideration and approval of the 2022- 2024 external borrowing plan to enable the government deliver its responsibilities to Nigerians through expeditious disbursement and efficient projects implementation.”

World Bank commits $11bn to Nigeria in 3 years

Meanwhile, the World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, Shubham Chaudhuri, yesterday, said the bank has committed over $11 billion in the past three years to Nigeria’s governments at both the federal and the sub-national levels.

Chaudhuri stated this while giving his goodwill message at the opening of a three-day cabinet retreat for ministers, presidential aides, permanent secretaries and top government functionaries, at the State House Conference Centre, Abuja.

Chaudhuri, assured Tinubu of the bank’s support in his administration’s challenging task of lifting millions of Nigerians out of poverty and making lives better for everyone.

He said Nigeria is at a critical juncture to either continue muddling through business as usual with the risk of things falling apart or have the courage to chart a new course, to take bold steps to finally see Nigeria rise to its true potential.

He said, “I hope that through what we’ve been able to do that we will be able to continue supporting you, as you realize this enormously important task.

“Although we are at the World Bank, we’re a development organisation and over the last three and a half, four years that I’ve been here, our board has committed over $11 billion in financing for the government, and our financing is meant to go to governments at both the federal and at the sub national levels. So we’re here to support your programmes, we take guidance from you.  

“But even though we have the World Bank in our name, I hope you will think of us as more than a bank. I mean, I really hope that we will be able to earn your trust that we have something more to offer in the nature of solutions to help you think through and then implement the priorities, the focus areas that you’ve laid out by bringing in ideas and experience.

“Financing is only part of the solution. It’s really the ideas and the vision. So you have my commitment. I and the team, the entire World Bank across the globe, we’re here to support you on that. And I would also like to say that I feel particularly privileged to have been here in Nigeria these last four years, especially in the last few months at this critical juncture where Nigeria faced critical choice whether to continue muddling through business as usual with the risk of things falling apart growing by the day or have the courage to chart a new course, to take bold steps to really finally see Nigeria rise to its true potential.”

Vanguard

Nigerian stocks rose the most in nearly four months and hit a record high on Wednesday, driven by strong earnings releases from banks and some manufacturers including Dangote Cement.

The All Share Index rose 1.9% at 2.30 p.m in Lagos, the most since July 10, to 70,581.76, the highest on record, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The Nigerian index outperformed the MSCI Emerging Markets Europe, Middle East and Africa Index, which advanced 0.6%.

Earnings from banks have been solid, alongside reports from manufacturers including Dangote Cement, Tunde Abidoye, a securities analyst at investment bank FBNQuest in Lagos, said by phone.

The banking index was up 2.2% to 732.24 points, the highest since Oct 2008. The index is up 75% this year and is heading for its best performance in at least 10 years.

“The interest-rate environment and revaluation gains are positive for the banking stocks and are helping the index,” Abidoye said.

Nigeria’s biggest lenders have seen their third-quarter earnings more than double, boosted by foreign-exchange revaluation gains. Zenith Bank, the country’s second-biggest bank by assets, reported net income for the nine-month period of 433.9 billion naira, compared with 174.23 billion naira a year earlier. UBA Plc’s net income of 442 billion naira was nearly 400% higher compared with the previous year.

Dangote Cement, Nigeria’s second-biggest firm by market value, also saw net earnings jump 44% from a year earlier, driven by double-digit increases in prices of the building material. The company’s shares are up 5.8% in the last five days and 26% year-to-date.

Leadership Change

Stocks have rallied since President Bola Tinubu’s government scrapped costly fuel subsidies and devalued the naira, rising 38% year-to-date in local currency. However, a 42% devaluation of the naira means that they are down 22% year-to-date in dollar returns, making it one of the worst-performing equity markets globally.

Gains in local currency have been driven mainly by local investors looking to protect their savings against soaring inflation, which quickened to 27% in September, and the weakening naira. Foreign investors sold a net 7.9 billion naira ($9.86 million) of Nigerian stocks in September, according to the Lagos-based Nigerian Exchange.

Airtel Africa Plc led gains on Wednesday, advancing 10%, the most in about 22 months. The firm’s share price traded at 1,694.10 naira, the highest since Oct. 14, with trading volume at about 11 times the 20-day average.

“More banks are going to be releasing results, so it’s a trend that should continue,” Abidoye said. “The pace can only be weakened by the non-financial companies that are affected by naira devaluation and seeing higher finance costs that have affected their financials.”

Bloomberg