WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukrainian group says more than 30,000 troops have died in Russia's invasion

A Ukrainian civic group said it has confirmed the deaths of nearly 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers since Russia's February 2022 invasion by using open sources, and puts the total toll at more than 30,000.

Kyiv treats its losses as a state secret and officials say disclosing the figure could harm its war effort. A report in August by the New York Times, citing anonymous U.S. officials, put the Ukrainian death toll at close to 70,000.

Writing in the Ukrainian journal Tyzhden, historian Yaroslav Tynchenko and volunteer Herman Shapovalenko said Shapovalenko's Book of Memory project had confirmed 24,500 combat and non-combat deaths using open sources.

The real figure was likely higher, they added, noting that many of the 15,000 troops listed as missing were likely dead.

Reuters could not independently verify the figures.

"Obviously, the 24,500 names are not the final number of dead (deceased), but by our assessment it is no less than 70%," the authors wrote. "That is, the real number of dead (deceased) in combat and non-combat situations is more than 30,000 people."

Applying a 1:3 ratio, the authors also estimated that up to 100,000 troops had been wounded.

A spokesman for Ukraine's defence ministry told Reuters he could not comment on the figures.

The Book of Memory project, which has tracked Ukraine's war dead since Russia's first invasion in 2014, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Tynchenko, in a message through his employer, the National Military History Museum of Ukraine, declined to comment on the article.

The article, published late on Tuesday, comes as Ukraine increasingly faces the prospect of fighting a long war with Russia.

Ukraine's top general wrote in the Economist earlier this month that the conflict was becoming static and attritional. A Ukrainian counteroffensive launched in June has made only incremental gains in the south and east.

The authors of the Tyzhden article said it was crucial to balance various estimates reported in Western media, which they described as given to "manipulation", with verifiable data.

"Should we talk about this topic in Ukraine during the war? We believe so, but only in terms of concrete data and open and trustworthy sources," they wrote.

Russia has also not disclosed the number of its war dead.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

West sees Ukraine conflict lasting five more years – media

A growing number of Western leaders have reportedly conceded that the Russia-Ukraine conflict may drag on for another five years, stuck in a “stalemate” that neither side is capable of shattering.

The crisis has already strained the West’s military capacity amid struggles to produce enough artillery shells, the magazine said, and the Israel-Hamas war creates further stress. 

“As time goes on, there will be trade-offs as certain key systems are diverted to Israel,” Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, wrote last month. “A few systems that Ukraine needs for its counteroffensive may not be available in the numbers that Ukraine would like.”

Ukraine’s top general, Valery Zaluzhny, raised eyebrows when he told The Economist earlier this month that the conflict with Russia had reached a stalemate. Although officials in US President Joe Biden’s administration were troubled by Zaluzhny’s candor, they agreed with his assessment, the New York Times reported last week.

The Ukraine crisis has revealed how “meager” Western armories are, The Economist claimed. Even as the US ramps up its output of 155mm artillery shells, its production in 2025 will be lower than Russia’s in 2024, the magazine added. If the overlapping conflicts in Ukraine and Israel both drag on, Washington and its allies would be hard-pressed to cope with another crisis.

“If the war in Ukraine stays an open sore in Europe and the Middle East remains ablaze, the West will struggle gravely should another serious crisis erupt,” the outlet warned. “One risk is that adversaries simply capitalize on chaos elsewhere for their own ends. If America were bogged down in a Pacific war, for instance, Iran would surely feel more confident of getting away with a dash for nuclear weapons.”

The magazine called the situation a “new world disorder” and suggested that Russia and China see “opportunities” in the growing threats. “Even more worrying is the prospect of active collusion. European military planners give weight to the possibility that Russia might conduct menacing maneuvers during a crisis over Taiwan in order to divert American attention and tie down its allies, preventing them from lending a hand in Asia.”

Concentrations of crises have occurred in past eras, The Economist said, “but America and its allies cannot intervene as easily or cheaply as they once did.” That’s partly because the Ukraine crisis has “cemented” the partnership between Russia and China, and the two countries are working more closely together, according to the magazine.

Reuters/RT