RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE
Zelensky reveals cause of counteroffensive failure
Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky attributed the delay and lackluster results of his military’s much-hyped counteroffensive to insufficient weapons and training from Kiev’s Western allies in an interview with CNN’s Fareed Zakaria on Sunday.
“We did have plans to start [the counteroffensive] in spring. But we didn’t, because, frankly, we had not enough munitions and armaments and not enough brigades properly trained in these weapons,” Zelensky explained, adding that holding the training outside Ukraine further contributed to the delays.
It was this delay, he said, that allowed Russia to “mine all our lands and build several lines of defense,” forcing upon the Ukrainian military “a slower pace of our counteroffensive actions.”
“We don’t want to lose our people, our personnel,” Zelensky said, adding, “our servicemen didn’t want to lose equipment because of that.”
Zelensky gave similar excuses at the Aspen Security Forum on Friday, explaining that Ukraine had wanted to launch the counteroffensive in the spring but decided against it due to a lack of ammunition and training. However, he implied that victory was imminent as soon as the military finished removing the mines that Western stinginess had allowed Russia the time to plant.
While Pentagon officials have stressed that it is too early to write the counteroffensive off as a “failure,” the US has refused to supply Ukraine with long-range ATACMS or F-16s, explaining with regard to the latter that there simply is no time or money to train the Ukrainians to fly and maintain the aircraft in time to make a difference in the conflict.
Even the Western media has acknowledged the counteroffensive’s lackluster performance. The New York Times reported earlier this month that Ukraine’s military had lost 20% of its weapons in the first two weeks of the operation alone, losses Zelensky also blamed on the insufficient generosity of his Western allies. The Financial Times and Washington Post have both reported this month that the West and US, respectively, are concerned about Ukraine’s lack of progress in the counteroffensive they had promised would deal a decisive blow to Moscow.
While NATO has pledged to prop up Ukraine’s military for “as long as it takes” to defeat Russia, the alliance stopped short of inviting Kiev to join during its summit in Vilnius earlier this month. This incensed Zelensky, who called the bloc’s behavior “unprecedented and absurd.”
Ukraine has received a massive amount of military aid from NATO members in the last 18 months, with $46.6 billion coming from the US alone. However, Kiev’s allies are running critically low on ammunition, while the publics in Western countries are questioning the wisdom of what is increasingly seen as an open-ended proxy war with a nuclear power.
** Demining Ukraine will take 757 years – WaPo
The conflict with Russia has turned Ukraine into the “most mined country”in the world, the Washington Post reported on Saturday, citing data from the nation’s government and several non-governmental humanitarian mine clearance groups.
Almost one-third of Ukraine’s territory has been affected by heavy fighting and will likely require intense demining operations, the media outlet said, adding that over 67,000 square miles (173,529 square kilometers) have been contaminated with unexploded ordnance, according to Slovakia-based think tank GLOBSEC. That’s more than the size of Florida and roughly equivalent to Uruguay.
“The sheer quantity of ordnance in Ukraine is just unprecedented in the last 30 years. There’s nothing like it,” Greg Crowther, the director of programs at British NGO Mines Advisory Group, told the Washington Post.
According to UN data, almost 300 civilians, including 22 children, died in Ukraine in incidents linked to unexploded ordnance between February 2022 and July 2023, the Post reported. Mines and other unexploded munitions also resulted in 632 civilian injuries over the same period, it added.
Both sides of the conflict actively use mines in their operations, the media outlet noted. The US also contributed to the mining of Ukrainian territory by supplying Kiev with 155-millimeter artillery rounds that create temporary minefields, although their submunitions are technically supposed to self-destruct, the Washington Post reported. Another US-made ordnance that was sent into Ukraine was the M21 anti-tank mine, which does not self-destruct, it added.
Washington’s decision to provide Kiev with US-made “cluster munitions, which are known to scatter duds that fail to explode, can only add to the danger,” the media outlet said.
According to some estimates, it could take 757 years to clear all of the unexploded ordnance scattered around the country, even if 500 demining teams were tasked with the mission, the Washington Post reported. World Bank estimates show that the cost of these operations could reach $37.4 billion in just the next ten years, it added.
Washington has so far committed just around $95 million to demining operations in Ukraine, according to a 2023 State Department report.
On Friday, UN Under Secretary General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo warned the UN Security Council that huge swathes of Ukrainian territory have been covered in mines and cluster bombs that will “continue to pose danger to civilians for years to come.”
Earlier this week, Russia’s ambassador to the US, Anatoly Antonov, blasted Washington for turning Ukraine into a “burial ground” for lethal waste.
** West knew Ukraine wasn't ready for counteroffensive – WSJ
Western military officials knew earlier this year that Ukraine lacked the supplies and training necessary to launch a successful counteroffensive against Russian forces, but allowed Kiev to launch its disastrous operation regardless, the Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday.
Nearly two months since it began, Ukraine’s counteroffensive remains stalled. By attempting to advance through Russian minefields without air support or adequate anti-air weapons, the Ukrainian military has lost 26,000 men and more than 3,000 pieces of hardware, according to the latest figures from Moscow. In return, Ukraine has captured only a handful of hamlets and villages, while failing to penetrate Russia’s multi-layered network of defensive trenches and emplacements.
The US and its allies knew that such an outcome was inevitable, according to the Wall Street Journal. Citing leaked Pentagon documents, the newspaper claimed that US military analysts counted a “tiny number” of Ukrainian weapons capable of hitting Russian aircraft, and determined that Kiev would face an “inability to prevent Russian air superiority.”
“America would never attempt to defeat a prepared defense without air superiority, but [the Ukrainians] don’t have air superiority,” John Nagl, a retired US Army lieutenant colonel, told the paper. “It’s impossible to overstate how important air superiority is for fighting a ground fight at a reasonable cost in casualties.”
In public, American officials told a different story. “We believe that the Ukrainians will meet with success in this counteroffensive,” White House national security advisor Jake Sullivan told CNN on the eve of the operation. Several months earlier, Dan Rice, an Iraq War veteran who now serves as an adviser to the Ukrainian armed forces, declared that the counteroffensive would “shock the world” with its success.
European leaders were similarly optimistic. Polish President Andrzej Duda, who has been one of Kiev’s most fervent backers, announced in early June that the operation would lead to “the ousting of Russian military forces from all occupied territories.”
Western officials have since downgraded their expectations, and are privately “alarmed” at the lack of results on the battlefield, according to recent media reports. Western governments are therefore at a crossroads, and will soon need to decide whether to commit the massive amounts of arms, equipment, and money necessary to support Kiev in a longer conflict, the Wall Street Journal explained, citing anonymous diplomats.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has described Ukraine’s counteroffensive as “suicidal.” In a public address on Friday, he pointed out that despite the“colossal amounts of resources,” and “thousands of foreign mercenaries and advisers” that Kiev has received from the West, its counteroffensive has still resulted in failure.
WESTERN PERSPECTIVE
Ukraine has recaptured 50% of the territory that Russia seized, Blinken says
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that while Ukraine has recaptured half the territory that Russia initially seized in its invasion, Kyiv faced "a very hard fight" to win back more.
"It's already taken back about 50% of what was initially seized," Blinken said in an interview with CNN on Sunday.
"These are still relatively early days of the counteroffensive. It is tough," he said, adding: "It will not play out over the next week or two. We're still looking I think at several months."
Late last month, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was quoted as saying that the counteroffensive's progress against Russian forces was "slower than desired."
Ukraine has recaptured some villages in the south and territory around the ruined city of Bakhmut in the east, but has not had a major breakthrough against heavily defended Russian lines.
When asked if Ukraine will get U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets, Blinken said he believed it would. "And the important focus is on making sure that when they do, they’re properly trained, they’re able to maintain the planes, and use them in a smart way."
A coalition of 11 nations will start training Ukrainian pilots to fly the F-16 fighter jets in August in Denmark, and a training center will be set up in Romania.
Ukraine has long appealed for the Lockheed Martin-made (LMT.N) F-16s, but U.S. National Security adviser Jake Sullivan, said last month there was no final decision on Washington sending the aircraft. U.S. officials have estimated it would take at least 18 months for training and delivery of the planes.
The United States has given Ukraine more than $41 billion in military aid since Russia invaded in February 2022.
RT/Reuters
