Battered Hamas confounds Israel's bid to declare victory

Senior figures in Israel's government have said it is closing in on its war aims of defeating Hamas militarily and the return of hostages seized on Oct. 7. But Hamas' survival as a guerrilla force and its sway in Gaza may overshadow any deal.

After nine months of pummelling by one of the most powerful militaries in the Middle East, Hamas is much weakened from the force that carried out the cross-border attack on Israel on Oct. 7.

Early in the war, Hamas propaganda videos showed well-drilled fighters in body armour and battle fatigues, their torsos wrapped with ammunition belts. Now, small groups of insurgents in T-shirts and trainers stage hit-and-run attacks in Gaza's bombed-out streets, the videos show.

Reuters spoke with three sources with knowledge of Hamas tactics, two former Hamas militants, three Palestinian officials, two Israeli military sources and an Israeli defence official to shed light on the group's losses and its strategy.

Two Israeli and two Palestinian sources told Reuters that a communications network built by Hamas before the war has been heavily damaged. That has left its command fragmented and reliant on messages delivered in person to avoid Israeli surveillance, the Palestinian sources said.

One Palestinian source with knowledge of Hamas military tactics said personnel losses and the destruction of the communications network meant centralised decision-making had collapsed. Much of the vast tunnel network beneath Gaza has also been destroyed or compromised, the Israeli military has said.

But the guerrilla tactics adopted by Hamas cells in recent weeks are simply aimed at ensuring the group survives, ties down Israeli forces and inflicts losses, according to another Palestinian source with knowledge of Hamas military tactics.

Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, speaking to soldiers in the city of Rafah in southern Gaza, said on Tuesday that Israel was close to defeating Hamas militarily, according to a statement from his office.

"We're eliminating Hamas as a military organisation," Gallant told the troops. "We're creating a situation that will allow us to make a deal to free our hostages."

Hamas seized around 250 hostages during the Oct. 7 attack and killed 1,200 people, according to Israeli tallies. Hamas and other militants are still holding 115 hostages, around a third of whom have been declared dead in absentia by Israeli authorities.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, addressing the U.S. Congress on Wednesday during a trip to Washington, pledged the hostages would be released soon and laid out a post-war vision of a "demilitarized and deradicalised Gaza" led by Palestinians who do not seek to destroy Israel.

Hamas dismissed Netanyahu's comments as "pure lies" and accused the Israeli leader of thwarting negotiations to end the war and reach a ceasefire deal to release the hostages - outlined by U.S. President Joe Biden in May and mediated by Egypt and Qatar.

Netanyahu, who met with Biden on Thursday, has said that victory will only be achieved when the military and governing capabilities of Hamas are eliminated and Gaza poses no further threat to Israel.

Hamas' founding charter in 1987 called for the destruction of Israel and it subsequently directed suicide bombings in Israeli cities and, with Iran's help, built an arsenal of rockets that it has launched into Israel in frequent conflicts.

'VERY FAR' FROM DESTROYING HAMAS

Hamas has insisted that, despite losses, its command structure remains in place, even if weakened.

Senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri told Reuters that Israel's accounts exaggerate the extent of its losses: "Facts on the ground are completely different," he said.

In a statement on July 16 to mark nine months of that war, Israel's military said that it has killed or apprehended at least 14,000 Hamas fighters out of the estimated 30,000 to 40,000 fighters that the group had at the start of the conflict.

By comparison, Israel says just 326 of its soldiers have been killed in Gaza since the start of the ground offensive - just above the roughly 300 killed in a single day during Hamas' Oct. 7 attack.

Crucially, the IDF has also said it had eliminated half of the leadership of Hamas' military wing, the Al-Qassam brigades, and it was pursuing Hamas' top leaders as part of its aim of dismantling the group's capabilities.

An Israeli airstrike on July 13 in a humanitarian area in southern Gaza targetted Hamas' military chief Mohammed Deif, who Israel says masterminded the Oct. 7 attack. The Gaza health ministry said at least 90 Palestinians were killed in the strike.

The Israeli military's chief spokesman, Daniel Hagari, said on July 19 there were increasing signs Deif was killed alongside another senior Hamas commander Rafa Salame, who Israeli officials believe was sitting next to him at the time and was also killed.

Palestinian sources have confirmed the deaths of several leading Hamas military commanders. They include Ayman Nofal, and Ahmed Al-Ghandour, both members of the Higher Military Council, the top decision-making body of Hamas' armed wing. Saleh Al-Arouri, the deputy chief of Hamas, was also killed in Lebanon.

Yet Hamas fighters have drawn Israeli forces back into battle in the same areas of Gaza again and again, such as this week's fighting in Khan Younis, preventing the declaration of victory Netanyahu says he is determined to secure.

Michael Milshtein, a former Israeli military intelligence officer who leads Palestinian studies at Tel Aviv-based Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, said Israel would need more boots on the ground across more areas of Gaza to achieve its aim of eliminating Hamas.

"We are very far from the goal of destroying Hamas' government and military capacities. We are really not close to that," Milshtein said. He noted, however, that a purely military victory would in any case ignore the group's social, political and economic influence.

"We're continuing to treat an enemy who is multi-dimensional in its behaviour as a military threat only."

The IDF did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Israel called up around 300,000 reservists to mount its assault on Gaza, its largest mobilisation in decades. It began releasing them around four months later.

MOP-UP OPERATIONS

Israel's military response to Oct. 7 has turned Gaza into a chaotic wasteland. More than 39,000 people have been killed, according to Palestinian figures.

Hamas' armed wing began the war with 24 battalions. An Israeli military source told Reuters on July 11 that four remaining battalions in Gaza's southern Rafah area, where Israel has focused its most recent offensive, are "close to being dismantled."

To achieve the government's war aims, the Israel Defence Forces planned a three-tier offensive encompassing an initial aerial campaign, followed by a ground offensive and a final phase of mopping up operations.

Most of Gaza has been in phase 3 for around six months. Once the Israeli forces have stamped out Hamas' remaining battalions in Rafah, then all of Gaza will essentially be in phase 3, according to Israeli officials.

Hamas' missile and rocket arsenal, once put at 15,000 to 30,000 has also been heavily depleted. Israel's military estimates 13,000 at least have been fired. It has also seized caches of projectiles as it has swept almost every city in Gaza.

Kobi Michael, of Tel Aviv University's Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), said Hamas was no longer an institutionalised army divided into conventional military units, with weapons manufacturing, training, intelligence and air, naval and cyber forces.

"We need to carry on until Hamas has no ability to rebuild," Michael said, suggesting the Israeli military would need to have access to Gaza even after the war to carry out operations against any remaining militant cells.

"The groundwork is being laid now for the IDF to operate in a similar way to the way it does in the West Bank. We are not there yet," he said.

But one source close to Hamas said the group has been preparing for years for a scenario where it would need to shift to guerrilla-style tactics to survive a conflict with Israel.

Key operations - including a foundry to make bombs and other weapons - were still operational, the source said. New recruits were also constantly joining Hamas' military wing, while the switch to guerrilla tactics had allowed the group to contain its losses, according to another source familiar with Hamas' tactics.

The network of tunnels, even after sections have been destroyed or compromised by Israeli forces, continue to hamper Israel's goal of eliminating Hamas, experts and two sources close to Hamas says.

"They show up from one shaft, destroy a tank, or prepare an ambush for another before they disappear until they reappear at another shaft," said a former Hamas militant familiar with the group's operations.

Some new tunnels, sources close to the group say, are being dug by hand. Reuters was unable to verify this independently.

An Israeli military official on Monday told Reuters that while a lot of Hamas military infrastructure, including tunnels, has been destroyed there was still much more to be done.

Reuters

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Kremlin names barriers to Ukraine peace talks

Russia is open to peace talks with Kiev but there are numerous issues that must first be resolved, including Vladimir Zelensky’s status and Ukrainian law, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said at a press briefing on Thursday.

According to the spokesman, a number of points need to be clarified before negotiations can become possible.

“First, we need to understand how ready the Ukrainian side is and whether the Ukrainian side has permission for [peace talks] from its backers. So far, we are seeing very different statements,” Peskov stated, referring to Kiev’s Western sponsors and their outspoken reluctance to engage in talks with Russia.

The spokesman also reiterated that Moscow considers Zelensky’s legitimacy as head of state to be void, considering his term ended in May and elections were not held due to martial law. Russian President Vladimir Putin previously said that Zelensky’s legitimacy matters with regard to a potential peace treaty, since crucial documents must be signed with legitimate authorities.

Peskov added that another obstacle is the decree banning negotiations between Kiev and the current leadership in Moscow, signed by Zelensky in 2022. The Kremlin spokesman noted that as “these prohibitions still apply,” it makes the possibility of talks difficult from a legal point of view.

“But from a practical point of view, we are open to achieving our goals through negotiations,” Peskov emphasized. There are various options for launching the peace process and Russia is actively considering them, he added.

Ukraine’s rhetoric on peace talks has shifted in recent weeks. While Zelensky was previously adamant that he would not negotiate with Putin, earlier this week he signaled he wanted the diplomatic process to begin sooner rather than later. In order to do this, Zelensky said there is “no difference” regarding who he engages with, “Putin or not.”

Following a meeting this week between Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba and his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said Kiev’s representative had made it clear that “Ukraine is ready and willing to engage in dialogue and negotiations with Russia.”

It is unclear, however, if Ukraine would be willing to change the conditions it previously set in Zelensky’s ‘peace formula’, which demands that Moscow withdraw its troops from all territory claimed by Kiev. Russia has dismissed the plan as detached from reality. Putin voiced his own peace proposal last month, saying he was ready to start talks once Kiev commits to neutral status and cedes its claims to all five former Ukrainian regions that have chosen to join Russia. His overture was rejected by Zelensky as an “ultimatum.”

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Pentagon finds another $2 billion of accounting errors for Ukraine aid

The Pentagon has found $2 billion worth of additional errors in its calculations for ammunition, missiles and other equipment sent to Ukraine, increasing the improperly valued material to a total of $8.2 billion, a U.S. government report revealed on Thursday.

The U.S. Department of Defense has faced challenges in accurately valuing defense articles sent to Ukraine due to unclear accounting definitions, a new Government Accountability Office report showed.

In 2023, the Pentagon said staff used "replacement value" instead of "depreciated value" to tabulate the billions in materials sent to Ukraine. The $6.2 billion error created a path for billions more to be sent to Kyiv.

The Pentagon told the GAO that since then, $2 billion more in overstatements have been found. As a result, an additional $2 billion worth of arms can be sent to Ukraine to cover the amount of aid approved by the Biden administration.

The GAO said a vague definition of value in the Foreign Assistance Act and the absence of specific valuation guidance for Presidential Drawdown Authority have led to inconsistencies in the reported value of military aid.

In one example cited in the GAO report, 10 vehicles were valued at $7,050,000 when the supporting documentation showed they should have been valued at zero, their net book value.

The GAO has recommended that Congress clarify the definition of value in the context of defense articles under Presidential Drawdown Authority.

Additionally, the GAO has issued seven recommendations to the Defense Department, urging it to update its guidance to include a PDA-specific valuation section and develop component-specific valuation procedures. The department said it has concurred with all recommendations and outlined actions to address these issues.

RT/Reuters

Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, is not a stranger to adversity or its more sinister cousin, sabotage.

One of the bitterest battles he has fought in the last 25 years – the cement war – was against his kinsman and founder of BUA Group, Abdulsamad Rabiu. Folks close to both men have tried to patch them up, but the embers are still smouldering.

Dangote’s face-off with the Kogi State Government under former Governor Yahaya Bello over rights and royalties from Dangote Cement, Obajana, for the local community, was a skirmish compared to the cement war with Rabiu.

Wealth and comfort can be strange bedfellows, often mutually exclusive in the quest to conquer one mountain after the other. Dangote knows this only too well. And nowhere has the lesson been more evident than his pursuit to own a refinery.

Just like that?

I told this story before in an article in May 2023. In the twilight of the Obasanjo administration, the government sold off two of Nigeria’s moribund refineries – Port Harcourt and Kaduna – to Blue Star, a Dangote-led consortium. Blue Star paid $670 million for the plants and walked away, thinking the deal was done. It wasn’t.

In 2007, the government of Umaru Musa Yar’Adua capitulated. It refunded Dangote under pressure from labour unions and vested interests in the refineries on the excuse that the assets were “national patrimony” that should not be sold, “just like that!” It didn’t matter that at the time of sale, both refineries produced less than 20 percent of capacity without hope or promise of improvement.

Dangote took his money and walked away, bruised but unbowed. Six years later, he announced plans to build a private refinery, first in Ogun State, and later, he moved it to Lagos with a capacity of 650,000 bpd – over 200,000 more than the installed capacity of Nigeria’s four refineries combined.

Single train revenge

Dangote’s single-train refinery, originally estimated to cost $12 billion but finished at around $20 billion, is now at the centre of another storm. It’s not about International Oil Companies (IOCs) he accused of trying to undermine him. It’s the more deadly variety of wars: the one from within.

The regulators, particularly the head of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), Farouk Ahmed, said in a television interview in the State House with the NNPC Group CEO, Mele Kyari, present, that Dangote Refinery was making products with unsafe Sulphur levels, and also trying to monopolise the industry.

Ahmed can raise valid safety concerns as a regulator and call out a monopoly. The Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) provides safety standards and a price reflexive framework to prevent a monopoly. Under the Act, the regulator is empowered to act in the interest of consumers and fair play.

Sulfurous things and backstory

Ahmed didn’t say precisely what the tolerable Sulphur level was or provide evidence that Dangote was trying to become a monopoly. Instead, he contradicted himself by mentioning at least two other refineries, Waltersmith and Aradel, operating at different capacities. If this were a chat in a beer parlour, it would be pardonable.

But to think that the head of a regulatory agency would levy an accusation of unsafe Sulphur levels and offer no response when he was told that neither his agency nor the NNPC had a laboratory is scary. I’m not sure why Kyari stood beside him, grinning. Or why the State House posted the video on its official handle.

But the whole show leaves a bitter, corrosive aftertaste of sulfurous proportions.

Dangote has been accused of many things. He has been accused of feeding off government indulgences, from waivers to tax breaks and preferential forex allocations, even though he was not the only beneficiary. Even the 20 percent stake in the Dangote Refinery, which we are now told the government paid only 7.2 percent, left many questions about that transaction needing to be answered.

On another front, some have accused Dangote of hedging his bet poorly in the 2023 election that brought President Bola Tinubu to power, unlike his adversary, Rabiu, who appears to have hit the bull’s eye.

Unkindest cut

But none of these charges is as unkind as those of Ahmed, who, if shame still means anything, should not have uttered the first letter of the “S-word,” never mind the phrase “Sulphur levels.” I’m not sure he can find his way to a viable lab owned by NMDPRA or NNPC because there isn’t one. The regulators rely on third-party labs in Lagos, such as GMO, Sewort, SGS, and others, to vet its imported petroleum products.

Yet, Ahmed chooses to publicly discredit, without proof, products that we are told have been repeatedly ordered by TotalEnergies and BP, among others.

In response to a question from a LEADERSHIP reporter on Tuesday about whether NNPC has a lab, the corporation said, “NNPC conducts rigorous testing on all its products to ensure they meet global safety and quality standards,” adding that NMDPRA can provide verified data through regular official reports. What does that mean in English?

A regulator’s record

And Kyari seemed pleased with this scandalous drama even though NNPC, which he superintends, has spent about $25 billion in turnaround maintenance of moribund refineries in the last 25 years, plus the recent $1.5 billion spent on his watch for more turnaround. One of the subsidiaries, PHRC, employed 487 new staff four years ago and paid N23 billion in salaries without producing one litre of petrol.

All that consumers are asking for, after losing a significant part of the battle for price, is the availability of petroleum products. God knows what they are getting under the current monopolistic system, which permits NNPC to play around with import licences, are long queues, contaminated products, and a regulator mockingly claiming to be a public company.

Suppose Dangote Refinery is in breach of any regulations; what steps have the regulators taken to call the refinery to order or help them overcome, except if they claim there was evidence of a malicious default? Our officials spend hundreds of thousands of dollars touring the world for foreign investors only to chew local investors with a microphone in a fit of what? Rage, sabotage, indiscretion or stupidity?

Feuding parties

The closed-door meeting among the feuding parties, which Tinubu ordered on Monday, may keep them on a leash for a while, but it hardly addresses the underlying issues. If products from the Dangote Refinery currently exceed the Sulphur levels – as Dangote had also said on a different occasion – why can’t the regulator work with the refinery to fix it without a scandalous press conference?

And is the talk about monopoly a fear-induced trope? How can Ahmed even speak of a monopoly when supply is hardly available, and the current distortionist-in-chief is NNPC, the sole importer of petrol and sole awarder of import licences for diesel?

It doesn’t smell good. Dangote Refinery is only 45 percent complete – the entire plant? Yet, Kyari and Ahmed joined former President Muhammadu Buhari in commissioning the plant last year? Seriously?

After years of working with petrol importers in his former life as the chief executive of PPMC, Ahmed is struggling with his new role as a regulator. He deserves public sympathy and can get it without being a retailer of beer parlour gossip or a bagman for vested interests.

** Ishiekwene is Editor-In-Chief of LEADERSHIP and author of the new book Writing for Media and Monetising It

Kalon Gutierrez

Key Takeaways

• For founders, the need for strong advisors early is more pronounced now than ever — given that an increasing number are being funded at notably early stages of their careers.
• A winning advisory team needs to have a combination of capability, applicability and future flexibility.
• To support this team, founders must institute an incentivizing compensation package, proper goal setting and regular communication cycles.

For founders, building the right team is critical to lasting success. But the right one isn't always what we assume it to be, and choosing wrong can prove detrimental at best to a start-up and ruinous at worst. In fact, in his 2021 Harvard Business Review article "Why Start-Ups Fail," Tom Eisenmann, Howard H. Stevenson Professor of Business Administration, notes that "a broad set of stakeholders, including employees, strategic partners and investors, all can play a role in a venture's downfall." Put more bluntly, a "dream team" may end up being a wolf in sheep's clothing.

A critical component of this group should be a war chest of related experience, along with a high degree of self-awareness, emotional intelligence and on-the-ground maturity. Strong advisors will also integrate well with the cultural and leadership dynamics of a start-up — keeping it consistent with founders' visions — and provide a non-biased and knowing perspective when offering direction on integral decisions.

For founders, the need for strong advisors early is more pronounced today than it was even five years ago. A quick look at Forbes 30 Under 30 Venture Capital 2024 makes it clear that many founders are now being funded at notably early stages of their careers, without a host of prior ownership cycles to reference. And there's much on the line: According to Carta, the median early-stage seed check from venture capital firms in 2023 was $3.1 million, requiring greater founder-led financial responsibility earlier. Products, meanwhile, are continuing to become more specialized and complex, requiring a heightened level of subject matter expertise. All of this can increase the progress-based burn rate while shortening the time horizon for success.

All these dynamics make it even more imperative for founders to identify and hire advisory boards early on, and when they do, they must get it right.

Here are key ways of attracting, hiring and retaining the best.

1. Understand the puzzle and identify missing pieces

Every company is unique, with its own strengths and weaknesses. A 20-year-old founder may sport a high level of intelligence yet lack a track record of creating multiple companies and the necessary years of subject-matter-related development. An industry veteran, meanwhile, may be less in touch with next-gen consumer behavior. As a founder, it's vital to assess your company's early-stage landscape — identify areas of strength (the same qualities that likely led others to invest in you), spot the gaps, and hire advisors with particular relevant expertise to address them.

2. Develop an advisor-specific compensation system

A founder's inclination may be to formalize an advisory team only when a company is big enough or far enough along and instead be inclined to form an informal team of familiar colleagues early on who offer services and support free of charge. While this may buy time and save money/dilution in the short term, the reality is that it will ultimately amount to a lower value-added during a critical period of early development. A better move is to create an advisory compensation system — from the start — so that a team feels truly invested in the company and, in turn, can be held accountable. That can include a percentage equity grant and associated timeline (usually one to two years). The amount to grant depends on two factors: the value-add of the advisor (time and expertise) and the stage of the company (the earlier on, the higher the grant).

3. Create a mutually agreed-upon goals list

As a founder, the more clarity you provide to an advisor, the more empowered they will be to add value. So, before signing an agreement, you and a prospective candidate(s) should create a set of goals and expectations. The latter can include an estimated number of hours dedicated per month, required percentage of attendance at meetings and general availability for advice and reference calls. Outlining goals will be more akin to a high-level job description or a position overview. It will also identify critical areas where a candidate plans to add value, along with a map of how they intend to execute accordingly.

4. Introduce advisory team members to each other and communicate frequently

Once your team is identified and hired, it's essential to then host a meeting that allows members to get to know each other. The more each person feels a part, the more they will operate with investment. In addition, it's important to remember that the sum is greater than its parts: a multi-member brain trust usually results in members devising better solutions than if they worked independently.

Also, provide regimented communication cycles (with updates) that offer realistic assessments of the current state of company endeavors. Sugarcoating a challenging experience will only hinder an advisory team from adding critical value.

5. Continue to evaluate your team, and don't hesitate to make changes

As founders, we can become emotionally attached to advisors; after all, they are mentors, advocates and stewards who helped raise and nurture our "baby." But as that infant grows, needs naturally change. A company may increase in size, pivot product category, or align with a new partnership vertical. Some advisors may be capable of growing with you throughout, but others will not, so they need to be assessed on a regimented basis. The right team is not always simply the available one.

As we view today's founder through a 21st-century lens, we are reminded that no one founding person or group of people can do it all. That doesn't change the market demand and associated expectations, however. With make-or-break nearly always on the line, a properly established advisory team is often a foundational ingredient to lasting success, provided it's built the right way.

Entrepreneur

The Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) reported that foreign transactions totaling N540.48 billion were recorded between January and June 2024. This represents a significant increase from the N145.08 billion reported during the first half (H1) of 2023.

In its 'Domestic & Foreign Portfolio Investment' report released on Wednesday, NGX highlighted that foreign investors liquidated more portfolio investments in the capital market than they purchased over the six months under review.

The report detailed that out of the total foreign transactions, N311.41 billion worth of portfolio investments were liquidated in H1 2024, compared to a foreign outflow of N73.06 billion in the same period in 2023. Foreign investment inflows amounted to N229.07 billion in H1 2024, up from N72.02 billion in the corresponding period last year.

NGX also noted that domestic investors accounted for N2.06 trillion in total transactions during H1 2024, bringing the combined value of domestic and foreign transactions to N2.60 trillion by the end of June.

The report further revealed that domestic investors represented 79.25 percent of the total transactions in H1 2024, down from 90 percent in the same period last year. Conversely, foreign transactions comprised 20.75 percent of the total in H1 2024, up from 10 percent in H1 2023.

Monthly Transaction Drop

The NGX reported a slight decrease in total transactions from N355.38 billion (about $239.56 million) in May to N354.55 billion (about $241.06 million) in June, a marginal decline of 0.23 percent. Comparing June 2024 to June 2023, total transactions decreased by 12.83 percent from N406.75 billion.

In June 2024, domestic investor transactions surpassed those of foreign investors by approximately 54 percent.

Market Performance Over the Last Decade

The NGX provided a summary of market performance over the past 17 years, indicating that domestic transactions decreased by 10.94 percent from N3.556 trillion in 2007 to N3.167 trillion in 2023. Foreign transactions also dropped by 33.28 percent from N616 billion to N411 billion during the same period. In 2023, domestic transactions accounted for about 89 percent of the total, while foreign transactions made up about 11 percent.

Institutional vs. Retail Investors

Analyzing month-on-month data, the NGX reported that domestic institutional investors (58 percent) outperformed retail investors (42 percent) by 16 percent. Between May and June 2024, retail transactions increased by 0.43 percent from N113.53 billion to N114.02 billion. The institutional composition of the domestic market saw a significant rise of 34.68 percent, from N117.57 billion in May to N158.34 billion in June.

The report from the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) reveals significant insights into the behaviour of foreign portfolio investors in the Nigerian capital market during the first half (H1) of 2024. Here are the key points and their implications:

Foreign Liquidations Outpace Purchases

The report underscores that foreign investors liquidated N311.41 billion worth of portfolio investments in H1 2024. This liquidation figure is markedly higher than the N73.06 billion recorded in the same period in 2023. This significant increase in liquidations suggests a few potential factors:

1. Market Sentiment: Increased liquidations indicate growing apprehension or negative sentiment among foreign investors towards the Nigerian market. This could be due to economic, political, or regulatory uncertainties that make the market less attractive.

2. Profit-Taking: Foreign investors might be liquidating their holdings to realize profits, especially given the good performance of the market and fear of volatility in the near future.

3. Global Economic Conditions: Broader global economic conditions, such as rising interest rates in developed markets or geopolitical tensions, might be influencing investors to pull out from emerging markets like Nigeria.

Increase in Foreign Investment Inflows

Despite the high liquidation levels, foreign investment inflows also saw a substantial increase, amounting to N229.07 billion in H1 2024, up from N72.02 billion in H1 2023. This dual movement of significant inflows and outflows highlights a dynamic investment environment:

1. Attraction to New Opportunities: The substantial inflows indicate that foreign investors still find attractive opportunities within the Nigerian market. This could be due to specific sectors showing robust growth or favorable valuations of Nigerian assets.

2. Short-Term Trading Strategies: The simultaneous high levels of inflows and outflows suggests that foreign investors are engaging in short-term trading strategies. This behaviour may have been driven by volatility in the market, where investors buy and sell quickly to capitalize on price movements.

3. Sector-Specific Investments: Certain sectors might be attracting more foreign capital due to their growth potential or resilience. For example, investments in technology, consumer goods, or financial services seem to be driving the inflows, even as investments in other sectors see liquidation.

Comparative Perspective

Comparing the data from H1 2024 with H1 2023 provides a perspective on the trends and shifts in foreign investment behavior:

Magnitude of Change: The liquidation of N311.41 billion compared to N73.06 billion in the previous year represents a more than fourfold increase. Similarly, inflows increasing from N72.02 billion to N229.07 billion shows a strong tripling of investment inflows.

Market Dynamics: These figures highlight the heightened activity and volatility in the Nigerian capital market. The significant differences year-on-year suggest that 2024 has been a year of notable changes and possibly market corrections or responses to external factors.

Implications for the Nigerian Market

The high level of foreign portfolio liquidations, coupled with substantial inflows, has several implications for the Nigerian capital market:

1. Market Stability: Large-scale liquidations can lead to market instability and volatility. The NGX and market regulators need to monitor these trends closely to ensure that market integrity is maintained.

2. Investor Confidence: The substantial inflows indicate that despite the high liquidations, investor confidence in the Nigerian market has not waned entirely. However, maintaining and improving this confidence requires addressing the factors leading to high liquidations.

3. Policy Measures: To attract and retain foreign investments, Nigerian policymakers might need to introduce measures that enhance market stability, improve the investment climate, and address any underlying economic or political uncertainties.

4. Diversification and Growth:  The inflows suggest that there are still growth opportunities within the Nigerian market that are attractive to foreign investors. Focusing on sectors with high growth potential and fostering a conducive environment for these sectors can help sustain and enhance foreign investment levels.

In summary, while the high level of portfolio investment liquidations by foreign investors in H1 2024 raises concerns about market stability and investor sentiment, the concurrent significant inflows indicate that opportunities within the Nigerian market continue to attract foreign capital. Balancing these dynamics will be crucial for the sustained growth and stability of the Nigerian capital market.

On Tuesday, the senate and house of representatives passed the new minimum wage bill.

The bill scaled first, second and third readings — all within an hour — in the upper and lower legislative chambers.

The legislation amended two key issues in the National Minimum Wage Act 2019, increasing the minimum wage from N30,000 to N70,000 and shortening the review period from five to three years.

Speaking at plenary after the bill was passed, Godswill Akpabio, the senate president, claimed that Nigerians can no longer pay any domestic worker below N70,000.

“The bill says that if you are a tailor and you employ an additional hand, you cannot pay the person below N70,000. If you are a mother and you have a newborn child and you want to bring in a housemaid to look after your child, you cannot pay that housemaid below N70,000,” Akpabio said.

“It is not maximum wage. It applies to all and sundry. If you bring in a driver, if you bring in a gateman — you cannot pay that gateman below N70,000. So, I am very delighted that this has been passed and we now look forward to employers of labour going ahead to improve on what has been set as a benchmark for all and sundry to follow.

“So, I congratulate the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), I congratulate all Nigerians, and I congratulate the senate and the national assembly in general for this epoch-making legislation which has even reduced the time of negotiation from five years to three years in view of the soaring effect of foodstuff. It is now necessary that we review it every three years instead of five years.”

Akapbio’s remarks have elicited a series of reactions on social media, especially on X, with many questioning his claim.

“This is a joke of the highest order. You might want to check some of the laws governing minimum wage,” Tohluh Briggs said in the comment section.

“Really? What happened? What changed?” Philemon Kuza asked.

WHAT IS MINIMUM WAGE?

The minimum wage is the least amount that employers are obligated to pay their employees. It is established by the National Minimum Wage Act to ensure that workers earn a basic standard of living and to prevent unfair treatment.

The current minimum wage in the country is N30,000 per month. The rate was previously reviewed every five years to reflect changes in living costs and economic conditions. It was last reviewed in 2019 during former President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration.

On June 3, Nigeria’s economy came to a standstill as labour unions staged a nationwide strike over the wage dispute.

The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) initially demanded N494,000, citing inflation and worsening economic conditions.

Following intense negotiations with federal government representatives, the unions scaled down their demand to N250,000.

On July 11, President Bola Tinubu met with labour leaders over the matter.

After further negotiations on July 18, the unions agreed to the N70,000 proposed by the president.

VERIFYING AKPABIO’S CLAIM 

To verify Akpabio’s claim, TheCable reviewed the National Minimum Wage Act 2019 to determine who is obligated to pay the minimum wage and who is exempted.

Section 3 (1) of the act states that every employer shall pay the national minimum wage to every worker under his or her establishment.

According to the law, any agreement for the payment of wages less than the national minimum wage is void.

But there are exceptions.

Section 4 of the act stipulates that the minimum wage requirement does not apply to employers with fewer than 25 employees.

According to the law, an establishment with the following employees is exempted from the minimum wage:
(a) part-time basis,
(b) commission or piece-rate;
(c) establishment employing less than 25 persons;
(d) workers in seasonal employment like agriculture; and
(e) any person employed in a vessel or aircraft to which the laws regulating merchant shipping or civil aviation apply.

VERDICT

Based on the National Minimum Wage Act 2019, Akpabio’s claim that any employer who hires a maid or gatekeeper will pay N70,000 minimum wage is false.

The law mandates employers with more than 25 workers to pay the minimum wage.

The Cable

Meta Platforms said on Wednesday it had removed about 63,000 accounts in Nigeria that attempted to engage in financial sexual extortion scams mostly aimed at adult men in the United States.

Nigerian online fraudsters, known as "Yahoo boys," are notorious for scams that range from passing themselves off as people in financial need or Nigerian princes offering an outstanding return on an investment.

Meta said in a statement the 63,000 accounts were on Instagram, adding that it had also removed 7,200 Facebook accounts, pages and groups dedicated to providing tips on scamming people.

The company also took down a smaller coordinated network of around 2,500 that were linked to a group of around 20 individuals.

In sexual extortion, or "sextortion", people are threatened with the release of compromising photos, either real or faked, if they do not pay to stop them.

The majority of the scammers' attempts were unsuccessful and although mostly targeting adults, there were also attempts against minors, which Meta reported to the U.S. National Center for Missing and Exploited Children.

Meta representatives said this was not the first time they had disrupted such networks, but added they were disclosing the current operation to "drive awareness."

The social media giant has been on the defense in recent years as governments, including legislators in the United States where Meta is based, ramp up pressure on it to address concerns that its executives have ignored evidence that its services harm children.

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In a hearing earlier this year, one U.S. lawmaker accused Meta Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg and other social media leaders of having "blood on their hands" for failing to protect children from escalating threats of sexual predation on their platforms.

The U.S. Surgeon General has also called for a warning label to be added to social media apps as a reminder of those harms.

Nigeria's scammers became known as "419 scams" after the section of the national penal code that dealt - ineffectively - with fraud.

As economic hardships worsen in the country of more than 200 million people, online scams have grown, with those behind them operating from university dormitories, shanty suburbs or affluent neighbourhoods.

Meta said some accounts were providing tips for conducting scams.

"Their efforts included offering to sell scripts and guides to use when scamming people, and sharing links to collections of photos to use when populating fake accounts," it said.

Reuters

Israeli forces recover bodies of four hostages from Gaza, military says

Israeli forces recovered on Wednesday the bodies of four hostages killed in Hamas' Oct. 7 attack and held in Gaza since then, the Israeli military said.

Maya Goren, a 56-year-old kindergarden teacher was killed during the attack on her kibbutz, Nir Oz, according to Israeli Army Radio, one of the communities worst-hit in the deadly Hamas attack through southern Israel that triggered the devastating war in Gaza.

The three other hostages were a reserve soldier and two conscript soldiers who were killed in combat during the Oct. 7 attack, the military said.

Their bodies were retrieved from the area of Khan Younis in southern Gaza, where Israeli forces launched new raids this week.

The four were among the 120 hostages still held in Gaza, around a third of whom Israel has declared dead in absentia based on forensic findings, intelligence, interrogations of captured militants, videos and testimonies of released hostages.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in an address to the U.S. Congress on Wednesday, said his government was actively engaged in intensive efforts to release the remaining hostages and that he was confident those efforts would succeed.

An Israeli delegation would take part in talks to secure a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release - mediated by The United States, Egypt and Qatar - next week, an Israeli official said on Wednesday.

Hamas wants a ceasefire agreement to end the war in Gaza. However, Netanyahu says the war cannot end before Hamas is defeated.

Reuters

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Kremlin says Ukraine's signal on talks appears to be in unison with Russia's position

The Kremlin said on Wednesday that Ukraine's signal on talks with Moscow appeared to be in unison with Russia's own position, but that more details were needed.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Kyiv was ready for talks with Russia if Moscow was prepared to negotiate in good faith, though he said that Ukraine has seen no sign of that.

"The message itself can be said to be in unison with our position," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters when asked about Kuleba's remark, adding that clarification was needed on the details.

"You know that the Russian side has never refused to negotiate, has always maintained its openness to the negotiation process, but details are important here that you and I do not yet know."

Reuters reported in February that Russian President Vladimir Putin's suggestion of a ceasefire in Ukraine to freeze the war was rejected by the United States after contacts between intermediaries.

Putin is ready to halt the war in Ukraine with a negotiated ceasefire but the Kremlin chief is prepared to fight on if Kyiv and the West do not respond, Reuters reported in May.

Putin in June said Russia would end the war in Ukraine only if Kyiv agreed to drop its NATO ambitions and hand over the entirety of four provinces claimed by Moscow, demands Kyiv swiftly rejected as tantamount to surrender.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Russian missile blows up Ukrainian military HQ

Russia has conducted a powerful missile strike on a Ukrainian military headquarters in Donbass, the Defense Ministry in Moscow has said, releasing footage of the attack.

In a statement on Wednesday, the ministry said Moscow’s forces had destroyed the command-and-control center of the Ukrainian 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade in Krasny Lyman. The town lies around 30km northeast of the strategic regional city Slavyansk, an important logistics hub which is now in the rear of the front line.

The strike was conducted with an Iskander-M short-range ballistic missile and destroyed the personnel inside the HQ, as well as two drone command-and control vehicles, ten UAVs, more than 300 FPV drones, an antenna mast device, and three all-terrain vehicles, according to Russian officials. 

The video released by the ministry shows aerial footage of several houses in the settlement, one of which is seen being struck by a rocket, sending a shockwave in all directions and a plume of smoke into the air. The roof of one of the buildings – which the ministry said was the drone control station – was set ablaze and several Ukrainian military vehicles can be seen pulling up beside it.

Russia routinely uses hypersonic Iskander missiles – which can carry a 700kg payload up to 500km – to pound Ukrainian targets, including those far from the front line. Earlier this week, the Defense Ministry released a video purporting to show a successful missile strike on a facility in Kharkov Region, which it said housed Western “instructors and mercenaries,”around 50 of whom were killed in the attack.

Russia has repeatedly warned that it considers foreign military personnel and equipment used by Ukraine to be “legitimate targets.” At the same time, Moscow maintains that it only targets military facilities and not civilians.

Reuters/RT