WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukrainian troops battle exhaustion as war drags into second winter

Istoryk, a 26-year-old soldier in eastern Ukraine, finally managed to fall asleep one morning, exhausted from the relentless battles against Russian forces in the pinewood forests near Kreminna.

His rest was cut short just an hour later when a fresh firefight broke out, forcing the senior combat medic back into action in a fierce and lengthy exchange.

"We had a firefight for over 20 hours," said Istoryk, identified by his military call sign. "Non-stop fighting, assaults, evacuations, and you know, I managed it," he told a Reuters reporter visiting his position on Thursday.

"And we all managed it. We aren't very fresh, and right now we need to find strength."

His description of recent clashes, and the fatigue that he and his unit are experiencing, underscore the huge strain that the war, now in its 21st month, is putting on Ukraine's limited resources and on its troops.

The soldiers also know that Russia has a far bigger army and more weapons and ammunition, raising the uncomfortable question of how Ukraine can ever repel the invaders once and for all in Europe's bloodiest conflict since World War Two.

Ukraine's commander-in-chief, Valery Zaluzhnyi, described a "stalemate" on the battlefield in an interview published this week, adding that a protracted, attritional war would favour Russia and could threaten the very state.

Only new capabilities, including more supplies from Western allies as well as locally produced drones, would tip the balance back in Kyiv's favour, Zaluzhnyi said.

The highly respected general's stark assessment coincides with the advent of seasonal rains, which makes it harder to advance over muddy ground, and follows a summer counteroffensive which has liberated far less territory than Kyiv had hoped.

For those in the trenches, while exhaustion is unavoidable, motivation remains strong.

Istoryk, speaking in a broad west Ukrainian accent, recounts his grim experiences with a winning smile.

Asked whether he could continue to fight for another year, or even two, he replied: "I think so. For sure."

FALTERING OFFENSIVE

Istoryk serves in a rifles battalion of the 67th Mechanised Brigade in the Serebryanskyi forest in the Luhansk region. Most of the province is occupied by the Russians.

The ground around the road to the trenches is dotted with craters from incoming shells, and charred trees have snapped in half from the explosions.

Fighting of this kind is raging along the frontlines running from the border with Russia's Belgorod region in the northeast all the way to the Black Sea in the south.

Istoryk said Russia had taken "huge" losses in the area; five Ukrainian soldiers in an evacuation team were also killed by recent shelling nearby, he added.

Reuters could not independently verify his account of casualties, but tens of thousands of troops have died in battle over 20 months of a conflict that shows no sign of ending.

Having focused on defence earlier in the year, Ukraine launched a counteroffensive in June in a bid to wrest back the initiative and cut Russia's supply lines by thrusting south towards the Sea of Azov.

Five months on, that objective remains a distant dream - Ukrainian forces are some 80-90 km from the coast, and extensive Russian defences have so far largely held firm.

More dramatic advances are still possible; last year Russian forces swiftly retreated from positions in Kherson region in early November. But offensive operations could be stymied by muddy conditions.

"It's one thing to run 300 metres to an enemy position in June, and totally another when you are up to your knees in mud, warm clothes, protective gear, a backpack with spare clothes," Colonel Oleksandr Popov, an artillery reconnaissance brigade commander whose units also operate in the area, told Reuters this week.

The drone pilots from his brigade appeared less tired than those in infantry units nearby.

Michael Kofman, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the conflict had reached a "transitional phase" where both sides hold the initiative in different parts of the front.

"Overall, Ukraine's offensive in the south has either culminated or is about to," he said.

ARTILLERY WARFARE

Key battles along the front stretching nearly 1,000 km (620 miles) are raging around the eastern cities of Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Kupiansk, while two main thrusts are taking place in the south - one near Orikhiv and another south of Velyka Novosilka.

Artillery would remain a key weapon in the winter, according to Popov, adding that it was more effective when targets were more static and bare trees provided little camouflage for troops on the ground, something that affected both sides.

While the colonel noted a near three-fold drop in the number of Russian artillery strikes in the Lyman sector of the front last month when compared to October 2022, some experts said that both sides had limited stocks of ammunition.

"My sense is that the artillery advantage that Ukraine had for much of its offensive is now going to recede, and that Ukraine's ammunition availability is going to be constrained," said Kofman.

"Russia will also be forced to conserve ammunition, but will now increasingly benefit from the influx of supply coming from North Korea."

Away from the battlefield, Ukraine has sought to knock out Russian air defences, aircraft and naval assets using long-range missiles supplied by the West, hoping that such attacks make it harder for the enemy to support frontline troops.

Russia, meanwhile, has kept up its bombardment of Ukraine using drones and missiles in what it says is a targeted military campaign but which has killed thousands of civilians and knocked out infrastructure vital for heating, power and transport.

Back in the forests around Lyman, Zakhid, a 26-year-old officer, said the next phase of the war would be tough and a true test of character for the military.

"We're exhausted, they're exhausted. But there are more of them, and they have more equipment."

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Putin explains why he ordered military operation in Ukraine

Russia had no option but to launch its military operation against Ukraine in February 2022, President Vladimir Putin said at a meeting with the country’s Civic Chamber on Friday. The Russian leader reaffirmed his belief that the decision was the right one, despite the difficulties resulting from it.

“We had no other choice,” Putin replied when asked if he would make the same decision again, knowing what the consequences would be. He added that “removing the assault rifle covers” must never be done lightly, but said he had reached the conclusion that military action against Ukraine was unavoidable.

“Why? Because we had already been attacked,” the Russian leader stated, without elaborating.

Putin has repeatedly explained the reasons for Moscow’s military campaign, citing Ukraine’s NATO aspirations and the looming prospect of the US-led military bloc expanding even closer to Russia’s borders as major sources of concern.

He has also stressed the need to protect the people of Donbass and end the nearly eight-year conflict that had raged between local rebels and Kiev’s forces. This was coupled with the increasingly nationalist stance of the Kiev government and its treatment of the Russian-speaking population, with Putin previously explaining the need to “denazify” Ukraine.

At the annual Victory Day Parade in May 2022, Putin described Moscow’s operation in Ukraine as a “preemptive” one, again maintaining that it was “the only right decision.” “Russia gave a preemptive rebuff to aggression,”the president insisted at the time, arguing the move had been “forced” but was the only correct decision that a “sovereign” and “independent”country could have taken.

Kiev has repeatedly claimed that Russian actions were “completely unprovoked.” The US and its allies in Europe and elsewhere have also pinned the blame for the conflict squarely on Moscow, while providing Ukraine with massive military and financial assistance.

** US House speaker refuses to meet Ukrainian lobbyists – WaPo

US House Speaker Mike Johnson has turned down a request to meet senior faith leaders from Ukraine, the Washington Post reported on Monday. The group of pro-President Vladimir Zelensky figures is currently touring the US in a bid to convince Americans that Kiev is not threatening religious freedom.

The group is led by Bishop Ivan Rusin of the Ukrainian Evangelical Church and includes Muslim, Catholic and Jewish leaders, as well as members of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OCU) – a government-approved institution designed to replace the traditional Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC), which the Kiev parliament voted to ban last month.

While Rusin has held meetings with American evangelical leaders and Republican lawmakers, an organizer for the delegation told the Washington Post this week that House Speaker Mike Johnson rejected a request to meet with the bishop and his colleagues.

Johnson – who voted against military aid for Ukraine last year but remains open to funding Kiev in future – did not provide an explanation for turning down the request. 

Speaking to the Post, Rusin insisted that Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky is not restricting religious liberty in Ukraine, and that Russian forces are jailing pastors and destroying churches in the Russian regions of Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson, and Zaporozhye.

“Our pastors have been imprisoned in the occupied places, so for us, it’s clear that we will be at least imprisoned [if Russia wins],” he said.

However, American conservatives are unconvinced. “Is it easier to be a Christian in Ukraine or Russia?” former Fox News host Tucker Carlson asked at a Christian summit in Ohio in September. “One of those countries just arrested a bunch of priests and shut down churches with political police and the army. It wasn't Russia.”

In March, Zelensky’s government ordered the expulsion of monks from the Kiev-Pechersk Lavra, one of the country’s oldest monasteries. Agents stormed the premises in August when UOC monks refused to leave.

Authorities in Kiev ordered the confiscation of 74 church properties in the Ukrainian capital in September, with many of the seized temples – including several churches inside the Pechersk Lavra – being turned over to the government-backed OCU.

The US State Department, which produces an annual “religious freedom” report, has never commented on Kiev’s campaign against the UOC. Amid the Kiev-Moscow schism, the Republican Party establishment has also sided with the OCU, with former Vice President Mike Pence telling Carlson in July that “very small elements” of the UOC had been “held to account”for “advancing the Russian cause.”

“I sincerely wonder how a Christian leader could support the arrest of Christians for having different views,” Carlson replied. “That’s an attack on religious liberty and we’re funding it.”

Reuters/RT

Mai Watanabe, a young self-proclaimed dating scammer, was arrested for selling how-to guides on defrauding ‘sugar daddies’ through paid dating.

25-year-old Watanabe, who hails from Nagoya, Japan, was arrested in August for selling a number of dating scam manuals to her social media followers. featuring titles like ‘Textbook for Sugar Babies: The Right Profile and Magical Words to Make Men Pay,’ these books went into great detail about the right way to approach vulnerable middle-aged men and get as much money from them as possible. One of these controversial guidebooks taught readers to tell their sugar daddies that they had had an unhappy childhood, in order to gain their sympathy and open their pockets. Other tactics included lying that they were unable to work due to ill health and that they urgently needed help to pay rent.

According to sources from the Naka Police Department, Watanabe started selling her scamming manuals last year, for prices between 10,000 yen ($67) and 20,000 yen ($134), with private lessons available for an additional fee. Japanese media reported that the young woman managed to sell around 2,000 copies of her books before being arrested.

Police started investigating Watanabe after arresting a 20-year-old woman who they believe managed to swindle a total of 10.65 million yen ($72,000) from two men in Aichi Prefecture using tactics from Watanabe’s books. The author, who goes by “Itadakijoshi Riri-chan (Riri the Sugar Baby),” online, admitted to the allegations, saying she knew that she was helping her customers commit fraud.

But just how good of a sugar daddy swindler was Mai Watanabe? One would have to consider themselves an expert in order to sell a manual on the practice, right? Well, it turns out that the 25-year-old woman was a seasoned ‘papa katsu’ (paid dating) master. In September, Japanese newspaper The Mainichi reported that she had been accused of swindling 27 million yen (approximately $182,500) from a 50-year-old man by telling him that she had borrowed money from an acquaintance to open her own apparel shop and that she was going to have to sell her body at a brothel to pay them back.

Last month, The Mainichi published new accusations against Mai Watanabe, this time from a 54-year-old man who claimed to have transferred a total of roughly 117 million yen (about $780,000) to Riri the Sugar Baby.

Oddity Central

Actions may speak louder than words, but words still matter — a lot. People can get easily offended, and if you rush around like most folks, it’s easy to say the wrong thing in the wrong way.

As a public speaking expert, one thing I focus on is teaching good speech manners. There are nine phrases in particular that instantly show appreciation and respect.

If you use any of them every day, you have better etiquette skills than most people:

1. “What I’m hearing you say is ...”

People don’t expect you to agree with everything they say. But they do want to know they’ve been heard and understood.

Use this phrase to clear your mind and confirm that you did consider their words before responding. If they spoke in a vague way the first time, you’ll give them a chance to focus their thoughts and contribute more meaningfully to the conversation. 

2. “You may be right.”

This phrase helps pave the way for disagreement, as in: “You might be right, but let’s experiment with this new idea this time.”

It’s also helpful for responding to off-topic comments and remarks from hyperactive colleagues who talk too much. No one likes to be negated, and a simple affirmation allows conversations to proceed without disharmony. 

3. “You were right, I was wrong.”

This phrase is a gold star of conversational selflessness for two reasons:

1. It’s impossible to say these words unless you mean them.
2. They’re music to people’s ears.

It is a great tool for defusing tension, clearing the slate, and earning respect. Surrender your ego to win the bigger fight for more productive, authentic relationships.

4. “Thank you for doing this ...”  

Old-school, elegant and simple. In a world where gratitude, respect and acknowledgement are hard to come by, it pays to be generous with praise.

If you want to encourage good behavior, force yourself to acknowledge it when you see it.

5. “I’ll leave you to it.”

Sometimes the hardest and most helpful thing you can do is overcome your impulse to control.

If someone is chopping carrots (rather than landing a plane), offer this simple gesture of trust — especially if your first thought is that you have a better technique. Say it like you mean it, and do it with a smile.

6. “Can you help me with something?”

No one likes to be barked at or ordered around, but most of us enjoy being asked for help.

Note the difference between saying, “Take out the garbage,” versus, “Hey, I’m overwhelmed. Can I ask you to help me by taking out the garbage?”

7. “Your [hair/shirt/tie, etc.] looks so nice today!”

Don’t lie, but do look for the good. People like compliments, even when they act like they don’t.

We’re all aging, we’re all stressed, we all worry that we forgot something about our appearance. It’s nice to hear that we did something right once in a while.

8. “That’s interesting.”

Even the melodic, prosodic flow of these words demands a slow-down, a bow to the speaker of sorts, before the conversation continues. It’s an acknowledgement that something was said, heard and considered.

9. Say nothing at all.

When someone says something rude or ignorant and you’re dying to lash back, remember the power of “I’m rubber and you’re glue.” Be rubber. Take a deep breath. Chalk the words up as somebody else’s issue and walk away.

CNBC

Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has started clearing the foreign exchange (FX) forwards backlog in banks.

Payment commenced on Wednesday, a source in the apex bank said while confirming the development.

On September 22, Wale Edun, the finance minister and coordinating minister of the economy, said the overdue forward payments were behind the depreciation of the naira.

Edun said settling the forex backlog would increase FX supply in the foreign exchange market and strengthen the local currency against the dollar.

The naira, on Tuesday, depreciated to N1,185 per dollar at the FX parallel market and strengthened to N786 at the official window.

Olayemi Cardoso, CBN governor, on September 26, said the apex bank was working on settling the $7 billion FX backlog. The finance minister later said Nigeria is expecting to receive $10 billion to ease liquidity in the FX market.

‘CITI BANK, KEYSTONE BANK HAVE RECEIVED PAYMENTS’

Commenting on the development, Charles Abuede, the chief economist and researcher at Cowry Asset Management Limited, said the settlement by the CBN is a positive move for the Nigerian economy, the FX market, the value of the naira, and the country’s gross external reserves.

He told TheCable that more than 10 banks — including Stanbic IBTC, Citi Bank, Standard Chartered — have received payments.

“Based on available information, over 10 banks such as Citi (got 100%), StanChart (80%), Stanbic (75%), UBA, Heritage, Keystone, Signature, Parallex, Greenwich Merchant, etc, have been settled by the CBN and more are counting,” the economist said.

“In recent days, there has been a gradual increase in the gross external reserves, which is a positive sign for dollar inflow and provides some relief for the naira.

“Additionally, we anticipate that this move will lead to a more favorable interaction of the local currency in the foreign exchange market, aligning with the exchange rate movements between the naira and the U.S. dollar, where the Naira has been appreciating in various FX segments.

“Furthermore, this step is expected to improve Nigeria’s credit ratings from international rating agencies.

“In September, the Russel FTSE announced its intentions to downgrade Nigeria’s index to ‘unclassified’ due to the rising FX backlogs and the challenges faced by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) in repatriating their incomes and dividends to their home countries, primarily caused by CBN’s liquidity issues.”

Abuede said the FX backlogs had led to rating companies downgrading Nigeria’s status in the business community — one of such being MSCI revealing plans to reclassify Nigeria’s indexes from frontier to ‘Standalone’ status by February of 2024 due to the unsettled forex.

The Cable

A Nigerian Navy patrol in collaboration with the Maritime Component of Operation AWATSE has discovered two punctured points along the NNPCL pipeline in Lagos.

Base Information Officer of the NNS Beecroft, H. A. Collins, disclosed this in a statement on Thursday.

Ms Collins, sub-lieutenant, said the discovery was made on 1 November between ATLAS COVE and Ijegun.

She said the NNS Beecroft patrol team responded to credible intelligence leading to the discovery of the punctured points.

She stated that the points were being utilised by saboteurs to connect hoses and pumping machines to siphon huge quantities of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), conveyed along the pipeline thereby posing a significant threat to the nation’s product availability as well as economic well-being of Nigerians.

Collins said following the discovery of the punctured points, the NNPCL has been alerted, and immediate repairs are underway to stall losses.

She added that simultaneously, efforts are ongoing to detect and rectify other potential vulnerabilities along the pipeline, ensuring a comprehensive approach to deter future illicit activities.

PT

Pressure rises on Israel to pause fighting and ease siege as battles intensify near Gaza City

Israeli troops battling Hamas militants encircled Gaza City on Thursday, the military said, as the Palestinian death toll rose above 9,000. U.S. and Arab leaders raised pressure on Israel to ease its siege of Gaza and at least briefly halt its attacks in order to aid civilians.

Nearly four weeks after Hamas’ deadly rampage in Israel sparked the war, U.S Secretary of State Antony Blinken was heading to the region for talks Friday in Israel and Jordan following President Joe Biden’s suggestion for a humanitarian “pause” in the fighting. The aim would be to let in aid for Palestinians and let out more foreign nationals and wounded. Around 800 people left over the past two days.

Israel did not immediately respond to Biden’s suggestion. But Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has previously ruled out a cease-fire, said Thursday: “We are advancing … Nothing will stop us.” He vowed to destroy Hamas rule in the Gaza Strip.

An airstrike Thursday smashed a residential building to rubble in the Bureij refugee camp several miles south of Gaza City.

One boy, his face covered in blood, cried as workers dug him out of the dirt and wreckage. Others rushed wounded men and women, covered in dust, away on stretchers or wrapped in blankets. At a nearby hospital, doctors tried to stanch the flow of blood from the head of a child laid out on the floor.

At least 15 people were killed, Gaza’s Civil Defense spokesperson said, and residents said dozens more were believed buried. The strike took place in the southern zone where Israel has told residents of the north to flee, but which has also faced repeated bombardment.

Blinken’s visit will unfold as Arab countries, including those allied with the U.S. and at peace with Israel, have expressed mounting unease with the war. Jordan recalled its ambassador from Israel and told Israel’s envoy to remain out of the country until there’s a halt to the war and the “humanitarian catastrophe.”

A flurry of heavy explosions raised clouds of smoke over Gaza City on Thursday. Al Jazeera television, which continues to broadcast from the city, said Israeli airstrikes were hitting an area of apartment towers in the Tel al-Hawa neighborhood.

The barrage hit around 100 meters (yards) from Al-Quds Hospital, the Palestinian Red Crescent Society said in post on X. It said there were deaths and injuries but gave no more details.

There was no immediate comment by the Israeli military on the strikes. Israel says it targets Hamas fighters and infrastructure and that the group endangers civilians by operating among them and in tunnels under civilian areas.

BLINKEN’S NEW FORAY

The U.S. has pledged unwavering support for Israel after Hamas militants killed hundreds of men, women and children on Oct. 7 and took some 240 people captive.

But the Biden administration has pushed for Israel to let more aid into Gaza amid growing alarm in the region over the destruction and humanitarian crisis in the tiny Mediterranean enclave.

More than 3,700 Palestinian children have been killed in 25 days of fighting — more than six times the 560 children that the U.N. has reported killed in 19 months of war in Ukraine as of Oct. 8. Bombardment has driven more than half the territory’s 2.3 million people from their homes. Food, water and fuel are running low under Israel’s siege, and overwhelmed hospitals warn they are on the verge of collapse.

Israel has allowed more than 260 trucks carrying food and medicine through the crossing, but aid workers say it’s not nearly enough. Israeli authorities have refused to allow fuel in, saying Hamas is hoarding fuel for military use and would steal new supplies.

White House national security spokesman John Kirby said the U.S. was not advocating for a general cease-fire but a “temporary, localized” pause.

In a sign that Israel might be feeling the international pressure, the military put out a late-night statement, in English, insisting it did not want civilians to be harmed.

“I want to make something very clear,” military spokesman Brig. Gen. Daniel Hagari said in a recorded video. “Israel is at war with Hamas. Israel is not at war with the civilians in Gaza.”

Israel and the U.S. seem to have no clear plan for what would come next if Hamas rule in Gaza is brought down — a key question on Blinken’s agenda on his upcoming visit, according to the State Department.

Earlier in the week, Blinken suggested that the Palestinian Authority govern Gaza. Hamas drove the authority’s forces out of Gaza in its 2007 takeover of the territory. The authority now holds limited powers in some parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank.

MOVING ON GAZA CITY

Military officials said Israeli forces had completely encircled Gaza City, a densely packed cluster of neighborhoods that Israel says is the center of Hamas military infrastructure and includes a vast network of underground tunnels, bunkers and command centers.

Israeli forces are “fighting in a built-up, dense, complex area,” said the military’s chief of staff, Herzi Halevy.

Hagari said Israeli forces were in “face to face” battles with militants, calling in airstrikes and shelling when needed. He said they were inflicting heavy losses on Hamas fighters and destroying their infrastructure with engineering equipment.

Casualties on both sides are expected to rise as Israeli troops advance toward the dense residential neighborhoods of Gaza City.

On Thursday, Israeli planes dropped leaflets warning residents to immediately evacuate the Shati refugee camp, which borders Gaza City’s center.

“Time is up,” the leaflets read, warning that strikes “with crushing force” against Hamas fighters were coming.

Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians remain in the path of fighting in northern Gaza, despite Israel’s repeated calls for them to evacuate. Many have crowded into U.N. facilities, hoping for safety.

Four U.N. schools-turned-shelter in northern Gaza and Bureij were hit in the past day, killing 24 people, according to Philippe Lazzarini, general-secretary of the U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees, known as UNRWA.

At least 9,061 Palestinians have been killed in the war, mostly women and minors, and more than 32,000 people have been wounded, the Gaza Health Ministry said Thursday, without providing a breakdown between civilians and fighters. The death toll is without precedent in decades of Israeli-Palestinian violence.

Over 1,400 people have died on the Israeli side, mainly civilians killed during Hamas’ initial attack, also an unprecedented figure.

Nineteen Israeli soldiers have been killed in Gaza since the start of the ground operation. A suspected militant shot to death an Israeli reserve soldier driving near a West Bank settlement Thursday, the military and medics said.

Rocket fire from Gaza into Israel, and daily skirmishes between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah militants, have disrupted life for millions of Israelis and forced an estimated 250,000 to evacuate border towns.

Rockets fired from Lebanon injured two people when they hit the northern Israeli town of Kiryat Shmona, medical services said. Hamas said earlier on Thursday it fired 12 rockets from Lebanon.

Hezbollah attacked Israeli positions in the north with drones, mortar fire and suicide drones. The Israeli military said it retaliated with warplanes and helicopter gunships. Four Lebanese civilians were killed, state media there said.

Four Palestinians, including three teenagers, were shot dead Thursday in different parts of the occupied West Bank, the Palestinian Health Ministry said. More than 130 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank since the start of the war, mainly in violent protests and gunbattles during Israeli arrest raids.

MORE DEPARTURES FROM GAZA

On Thursday, 342 Palestinians with foreign passports, 21 injured in the fighting and an additional 21 companions left Gaza through the Rafah crossing into Egypt, according to Wael Abu Omar, a spokesman for the Palestinian Crossings Authority.

At least 335 people with foreign passports, and 76 injured and their companions, were evacuated Wednesday, he said.

U.S. officials said 79 Americans were among those who have gotten out. The U.S. has said it is trying to evacuate 400 Americans with their families.

Egypt has said it will not accept an influx of Palestinian refugees, fearing Israel will not allow them to return to Gaza after the war.

AP

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

US imposes sweeping new sanctions targeting Russia over war in Ukraine

The United States on Thursday imposed sweeping new measures against Moscow over the war in Ukraine, targeting Russia's future energy capabilities, sanctions evasion and a suicide drone that has been a menace to Ukrainian troops and equipment, among others, in sanctions on hundreds of people and entities.

The latest measures target a major entity involved in the development, operation and ownership of a massive project in Siberia known as Arctic-2 LNG, the State Department said in a statement. The project expected to ship chilled natural gas, known as liquefied natural gas to global markets.

Washington also targeted the KUB-BLA and Lancet suicide drones being used by the Russian military in Ukraine, designating a network it accused of procuring items in support of their production as well as the creator and designer of the drones.

The Biden administration on Thursday added a dozen Russian companies to a trade blacklist for supporting Russia's military with drones that could be used to aid in Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, the Commerce Department said in a statement.

The U.S. also cracked down on sanctions evasion in the United Arab Emirates, Turkey and China, as the Treasury Department said companies based in the countries continue to send high priority dual-use goods to Russia, including components Moscow relies on for its weapons systems.

Seven Russia-based banks and dozens of industrial firms were also hit with sanctions by the Treasury Department, including Gazpromneft Catalytic Systems LLC, which Treasury said manufactures chemical agents for advanced oil refining in Russia.

The Kremlin said on Thursday ahead of the action that it expected the West to impose ever tougher sanctions on it over the war, but that there was a growing sense that such penalties hurt Western interests while Russia's economy was adapting well.

LNG, LANCET DRONE

With the sanctions on limited liability company Arctic LNG 2, and previous measures imposed on the project in September, the U.S. is trying to target Russia's upcoming energy production, similar to how it targeted its future deep-sea, shale and Arctic oil production after Moscow's invasion of Crimea in 2014. All of these hard-to-produce projects depend on Western technology.

The U.S., itself a large LNG producer that exports to Europe, is also trying to reduce Russia's LNG shipments to Europe, which has only banned Russian gas sent via pipeline.

Arctic-2 LNG has been expecting to start exporting soon and it is uncertain how much Russian LNG would be blocked by the new measures. The largest Russian LNG producer Novatek said in September it would start shipments from Arctic-2 LNG early next year.

The United States, European Union and other Western nations have imposed rafts of sanctions on Moscow following its invasion of Ukraine, including targeting Russian banks and President Vladimir Putin, as the partners seek to hold Russia to account for the conflict that has killed thousands and reduced cities to rubble.

"We will continue to use the tools at our disposal to raise the cost for Russia of waging this war and promote accountability for its atrocities and abuses in Ukraine," U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement.

Thursday's action marks the first measures Washington has taken directly targeting the Lancet drone, an angular grey tube with two sets of four wings that has been an increasing threat on Ukraine's frontlines, according to Ukrainian solders.

Washington targeted limited liability company ZALA Aero, a Russia-based manufacturer the State Department said designs, manufactures and sells loitering munition and suicide drones to the Russian Ministry of Defense, as well as A Level Aerosystems CST, a Russia-based entity manufacturing and selling drones under the ZALA brand.

The owner of the companies, Aleksandr Zakharov, was also targeted, as were his wife, daughter and sons, and companies they own. The State Department said Zakharov is the creator and designer of the drones.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy hailed the measures in his nightly video address as "just what is needed."

"And every sanctions decision must work in full, so that there is no chance for Russia to bypass them."

Zelenskiy's chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, welcomed sanctions tied to the Lancet drone.

"I am very pleased that...restrictions are being tightened against companies associated with the military-industrial complex of the Russian Federation...,"Yermak said on Telegram.

SANCTIONS EVASION

Washington has stepped up diplomatic pressure on countries and private companies globally to ensure enforcement of the barrage of sanctions it has unleashed on Moscow.

Among those designated on Thursday were Turkish and UAE firms, including companies that sent high-priority goods to Russia and firms that have shipped aviation parts and equipment.

Three Chinese entities - two that the Treasury said have conducted hundreds of shipments of electro-optical equipment, cameras and other items, and one that has shipped radar components to Russia-based firms - were also targeted.

The State Department also imposed sanctions on multiple defense-related entities and procurement companies in the UAE.

Construction companies, Russian officials and a metals and mining company implementing a project to develop the largest titanium ore deposit in the world located in Russia were also hit with sanctions.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Public support for Ukraine falling in US – Gallup

Public support for sending aid to Ukraine is continuing to decline in the US, with a new Gallup poll suggesting that many Americans are growing tired of Washington shipping billions of dollars in financial assistance to Kiev.

According to the survey published on Thursday, 41% of respondents said they believe the US government is doing “too much” to help Ukraine. This marks a increase of 12 points in the sentiment since a previous poll was conducted in June.

Meanwhile, the number of people who think the US is doing “the right amount” saw a drop from 43% in June to just 33% in the latest survey. Only a quarter of respondents said Washington’s current level of support for Ukraine was “not enough.”

When asked whether the US should provide financial assistance to Ukraine for “as long as Ukraine requests it” or if there should be a time limit, a total of 61% of respondents said they  believed US aid to Kiev should be limited.

The Gallup poll also found that support for Ukraine was more or less split along party lines, with Republicans and Independents being less likely to support continued assistance to Kiev.

Last month, another survey conducted by Reuters-Ipsos also found that a growing number of Americans were opposed to supplying additional military aid to Ukraine, with even Democratic support seeing a sharp decline in the past several months.

The poll found that only 41% of respondents felt Washington should continue to provide weapons to Ukraine. In June, that number stood at 65%. Among Democrats, support for military aid stood at 52% in the October poll, compared to 81% in June when Kiev’s forces launched their much-touted counteroffensive that was expected to be a turning point in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

As Kiev ultimately failed to make any significant gains in the several-months-long campaign, instead suffering enormous casualties, support for continued US aid for Ukraine has also diminished among lawmakers. 

In early October, Republican senators even threatened a complete government shutdown unless billions in aid for Ukraine was dropped from a government spending bill.

President Joe Biden has since been attempting to find a workaround to the issue and trying to convince GOP lawmakers to approve a $105 billion spending package intended to cover the security needs of Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, comparing the Ukraine conflict to World War II and arguing that “patriotic American workers are building the arsenal of democracy and serving the cause of freedom.” 

Meanwhile, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu stated on Wednesday that, despite continued shipments of NATO weapons, “the Kiev regime is losing” and failing to advance on the front lines, suffering high battlefield losses and decreasing morale among its troops.

Reuters/RT

Former vice president and presidential candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubakar, said on Monday that Nigeria was the bigger loser in last week’s decision by the Supreme Court to uphold the election of President Bola Tinubu. That was a convenient exaggeration to hide his misery.

But it was unnecessary. After unsuccessfully contesting to be president six times, it would have been human for him to admit that this loss, on what might well be his last attempt, was difficult to bear. He didn’t need to frame it as a national tragedy, because quite frankly, it wasn’t.

It’s the tragedy of the political elite enabled by the choices made by politicians, including members of Abubakar’s PDP, which also used to be Labour Party candidate Peter Obi’s home.

Even if Abubakar or Obi had won the 2023 presidential election, it would have been almost impossible to overturn. It just happened that they were at the receiving end.

Transmission and forgery tourism

Yet, the pursuit of redress need not be frustratingly difficult and complicated. If, for example, the National Assembly had made Section 60 of the Electoral Act on the electronic transmission of results compulsory, and not discretionary whatever the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) might have said later, it would have had no option but to comply. 

The commission waffled because the law is not binding. Its non-compliance undermined the integrity of the system and opened the door to self-help, a point acknowledged in the judgment of the Supreme Court.

Another obvious source of distress for Abubakar and Obi, particularly Abubakar, was that the court refused to admit and consider the pleading that Tinubu’s certificate from the Chicago State University (CSU) purportedly filed as part of his documents to INEC, was forged. 

After losing the first round of legal challenge at the tribunal, Abubakar’s counsel mounted a vigorous attempt at a US court to obtain Tinubu’s certificate  and succeeded in spite of inexplicable efforts by the president’s team to block them. 

Armed with the deposition from the US court, Abubakar went to the Supreme Court believing that he had eventually found the smoking gun. But there were at least two major problems which serious lawyers from other parts of the world watching the live Supreme Court proceedings on October 24 would have been embarrassed to see. 

One, the deposition filed by Abubakar’s lawyers did not comply with the rules of evidence in a Nigerian court, which make the certification of such documents by the issuing courts or authorities mandatory. Instead, the Supreme Court said, the certification of the document was done in the chambers of Abubakar’s lawyers. This negligence – to have either the US court or CSU certify the deposition alleging forgery – handed a loophole to a legal system notorious for its embarrassing fastidiousness to technicalities. 

Heart of the matter

But that was only a part of the coup de grace. Two, the case lost its way even before it reached the tribunal, which in the presidential election, is the court of appeal. 

The whole point of the contest was not whether a forgery had been committed, though it may have been material at an earlier stage. The point was whether Abubakar’s lawyers could prove that the presidential election on February 25 had been so significantly rigged that Tinubu could not have won it. 

And to do that Atiku didn’t need to go the US, except if he was doing so as Rauf Aregbesola’s lawyers did in Osun State in Rauf Aregbesola & 2 Ors vs. Olagunsoye Oyinlola & 2 Ors (2011) 9 NWLR Pt. 1253 Pg. 582, where the team used forensic help from abroad to make its case. 

It was the inability of Abubakar’s legal team to meet this herculean challenge that forced them on a forgery tourism – a sexier, far less complicated route, which regrettably, often ends in a heartbreak.

In the few cases where the Supreme Court has overturned the election of governors – never those of presidents – the decisions, especially in the cases of Rotimi Chibuike Amaechi vs. INEC & 2 Ors S.C. 252/2007; Peter Obi vs. INEC & 2 Ors S.C. 123/2007 NGSC 50; and Senator Hope Uzodinma & APC vs. Rt Hon. Emeka Ihedioha & 2 Ors S.C.1462/2019, have been mainly on technical grounds. In a presidential election, however, the petitioner is faced with a different, higher level of tyranny. 

He will have to prove in court, within 180 days, that elections in a substantial number of the 176,846 polling units scattered in some of the country’s remotest villages and involving an estimated 187 million odd ballots had been rigged. And this would happen in a court barely equipped or prepared for such a grind.

Moving Olympus

On top of that, the petitioner would also have to climb this evidential Kilimanjaro when the defendant is already at the peak of it, ensconced in office and exercising the full powers of incumbency. 

In the face of such odds, Abubakar’s legal team desperately grasped at two straws – the allegation that Tinubu forged his certificate, and the claim that he ought not to have been declared winner because he failed to get 25 percent of the votes in Abuja, the federal capital.

On a good day, it’s improbable that any of Abubakar’s or Obi’s lawyers would say, with a straight face, that they believe that the constitution created Abuja as an enclave of super voters. Even for a constitution widely criticised for its clutter, it would be taking a malicious lack of clarity too far to suggest that the writers meant that Abuja voters were greater than the rest of us. 

Not even in the US, famous for its “federational” oddities does the capital, Washington DC, hold an electoral veto vote over the other states. In fact, the whole point of the Electoral College is to equalise the states. Nigerian courts have also made this point repeatedly. But obviously, the election petition industry will stop at nothing to reinvent its growth, expansion and prosperity.

Some have used the scathing valedictory address by retired Supreme Court judge, Musa Dattijo Muhammad, delivered the day after the court’s judgment as evidence of lost hope in the judiciary. That’s exaggerated, and hardly supported by the jurisprudential philosophy of His Lordship. His call for introspection was the right one, but his record is a cautionary tale for those inclined to take his latter-day pseudo-radicalism as gospel.

Way forward

There are three things that could minimise this regular cycle of bitter election combats, which take a toll on everyone, except those for whom the combats have become a cash cow. 

One, cut down the layers of litigation. In the presidential election, for example, the Supreme Court should be the first and last court. It used to be so here. And it is still so in Ghana and Kenya. In Kenya, after complaints have been made and investigated by the election management body, any party that is not satisfied goes to the Supreme Court, which has two weeks to dispose of the case.

Two, shift the burden of proof to INEC. Again, Kenya provides a good example. The election board in that country receives petitions, if the intra-party mechanism fails to settle them. It also investigates complaints fairly transparently, even though members of the board are appointed by the president but confirmed by the legislature. In Nigeria, the election board is sometimes the playground of politicians, and is frequently accused of impeding petitioners’ access to election records. 

And three, election petitions should be disposed of before swearing in. Once a winner has been declared and sworn in, a petitioner faces a near-impossible task of over-turning the result.

Since Abubakar has said he is not going anywhere, he would do well to mobilise his party to ensure that whether it is him or someone else in 2027, the party’s candidate would be spared his current misery. And it would also be in the enlightened self-interest of the ruling party to join him in fixing the broken system.

** Ishiekwene is Editor-In-Chief of LEADERSHIP

We all have to communicate with people on a daily basis, so it's inevitable that we'll occasionally be put off, if not downright offended, by the things we hear. But consider the possibility that sometimes you may be guilty of rubbing people the wrong way.

As a public speaking trainer, I always urge people to think carefully about their listeners before speaking. It's impossible to evaluate every word ahead of time, but it's helpful to be aware of phrases or attitudes that keep us from communicating effectively. 

Here are seven rude phrases that people with poor speech etiquette always use — and what to say instead:

1. "Do you want to ...?"

This phrase is great when you're offering someone a choice ("Do you want to go to lunch with me?"). But as a way of delivering orders ("Do you want to take the trash?"), its indirect fake-politeness comes across as belittling.

What to say instead: State your request directly. It's courteous to broach a request by asking, "Will you do me a favor?" After all, people generally like to pitch in. But they don't like to feel manipulated.

2. "Here's the thing ..."

This phrase insists that whatever follows will be the final, authoritative take on the subject at hand. Even when used inadvertently, it can sound a bit self-important. Truly authoritative people don't tend to waste time on throat-clearing statements.

What to say instead: If you're offering an opinion, consider prefacing your remarks with "I think ..." These two words remove any suggestion that you're pompously issuing a declaration. 

3. "Right?"  

In recent years, it's become normalized for this pushy rhetorical nudge to follow questions, especially in interviews with athletes and politicians ("This is the most important stretch of the season, right?" or "We've never seen a circumstance like this, right?")

At best, it's a useless bit of filler. But it can also feel like a manipulative insistence upon agreement.

What to say instead:  If you want someone's opinion, ask for it in a neutral way, rather than demanding confirmation: "I can't think of a more critical moment for the team. Can you?"

4. "Well, figure out a way." 

This phrase is a conversation ender. It's mean! While it's important to delegate, leadership demands that if an employee needs help or tries to communicate about a roadblock, your job is to help them work through it — not to insult them. 

What to say instead: Warmer language and an open approach will always encourage better exploration of solutions. A simple shift might be to say: "Well, let's talk about it and figure out a way."

5. "It is what it is."

In my experience, this phrase is usually used as shorthand for "stop complaining." If someone is asking for sympathy or assistance, you may or may not wish (or have time) to help them, but at least be kind about ending the conversation.

What to say instead: Try offering a bit of curiosity and empathy. You don't need to be phony or overly demonstrative. But saying something as simple as, "That's tough. I'm sorry you're going through that," can make a difference by allowing the other person to feel heard.

6. "Obviously ..."

This word subtly or not-so-subtly conveys that anyone disagreeing with the speaker is wrong. Even if you don't realize it, using it can make you seem arrogant.

What to say instead: Skip it altogether and remember that silence can be a beautiful thing. The most effective speakers know that proving your superiority or correctness is a waste of time and wins you no friends.

7. "If you want my honest opinion ..." (or, "I was just joking.")

First of all, did anyone ask for your opinion? If so, they probably don't expect or need a rude response masquerading as honesty. 

What to say instead: People want help, support and solutions. Saying "maybe" instead of offering your "honest opinion" is a perfectly fine preface. Saying "sorry" if a rude comment falls flat is far more productive than a faux-diplomatic justification for spite.

** John Bowe is a speech trainer, award-winning journalist, and author of "I Have Something to Say: Mastering the Art of Public Speaking in an Age of Disconnection."

CNBC

Failure to supply crude oil to domestic refineries, including the multi-billion dollar Dangote Refinery, has stalled the production of refined petroleum products at the facilities.

This is also as the 650,000 barrels per day Dangote refinery in Lagos missed the October production projection it had earlier set.

The October production target miss made it the second time in 2023 that Dangote Refinery would raise hopes of Africa, especially Nigeria, of a possible end to petrol importation.

Failure to begin production means that Nigeria will continue to rely on fuel importation.

It was gathered on Wednesday that amid Nigeria’s continued imports of refined petroleum products, its domestic refineries that would have helped refine the commodities were being starved of crude oil.

About five more modular refineries are ready to commence production of refined petroleum products but cannot produce the commodities because of the unavailability of crude oil, according to industry sources.

Also, industry sources stated that the Dangote Refinery in Lekki, Lagos, had yet to receive the required volumes of crude oil needed to produce refined products.

On September 20, 2023, The PUNCH reported that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery was importing crude oil and expected its first cargo in about two weeks, according to the Executive Director, Dangote Group, Devakumar Edwin.

The report stated that though the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited trades crude oil on behalf of Nigeria, in an interview with S&P Global Commodity Insights at the time, Edwin revealed that the NNPCL had committed its crude to other entities.

The Dangote refinery boss did not disclose the other entities receiving the oil company’s crude, but the NNPCL had earlier disclosed in August that it had entered into a $3bn crude oil-for-loan deal with African Export-Import Bank.

The deal allowed the company to pledge future oil production to the bank as repayments for the loan.

Also, Edwin pointed out that the importation of crude by the Dangote refinery was temporary, as the firm would receive supply from NNPCL from November.

Edwin went ahead to state that the firm would begin the production of up to 370,000 barrels per day of crude that would give rise to Automotive Gas Oil, popularly called diesel, and jet fuel in October 2023.

For petrol, the Dangote Group’s boss said the plant would produce it by November 30, 2023.

He said, “Right now, we are ready to receive crude. We are just waiting for the first vessel. And so as soon as it comes in, we can start.”

However, despite the promise to begin production in October, there seemed to be no traces of diesel refining from the facility in October.

The facility was initially billed to begin refining in August, as announced by the President of Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, at the inauguration of the Ibeju-Lekki facility in May.

“Your excellencies, distinguished guests, our first product will be in the market before the end of July or beginning of August this year,” Dangote had said.

However, it was gathered on Wednesday that the crude oil supply situation to the plant had not improved, as the NNPCL was still finding it tough to provide the crude oil required for the Dangote refinery to commence the production of refined products.

Sources at the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission and Federal Ministry of Petroleum Resources confirmed this in Abuja on Wednesday.

“Officials from the Dangote Refinery visited the NUPRC recently to complain about the lack of crude oil required by the plant and why it would be odd for the company to be importing crude when Nigeria produces the commodity,” one of the sources, who pleaded not to be named due to lack of authorisation, stated.

Efforts to get the reaction of the Dangote refinery were unsuccessful, as two spokespersons for the firm did not answer calls to their mobile phones. They also did not respond to text messages sent to them on the matter.

Although the Federal Government blamed the development on Nigeria’s low oil output, operators of domestic refineries raised concerns about the lack of feedstock (crude) for their refineries and how this was stalling the take-off of these plants.

Operators of the modular refineries confirmed on Wednesday that International Oil Companies preferred exporting the commodity to earn dollars, to the detriment of domestic refiners.

The NUPRC had on Saturday announced that more domestic refineries had issued notice to commence the production of refined petroleum products.

It also announced its readiness to enforce domestic crude oil supply obligations that would ensure the availability of crude to indigenous refiners.

Senior officials from the Federal Ministry of Petroleum Resources, the NUPRC, and the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria further confirmed that the number of local refineries set to commence production was about five.

Modular refinery operators under the aegis of CORAN revealed that feedstock supply had remained a severe bottleneck.

They also told one of our correspondents that the three modular refineries currently in operation hardly have adequate volumes of crude.

CORAN is a registered association of modular and conventional refinery companies in Nigeria. Modular refineries are simplified refineries that require significantly less capital investment than traditional full-scale refineries.

Modular refineries ready

Confirming the readiness of domestic refineries, Secretary of CORAN, Olusegun Ilori, said about five modular refineries were ready.

It was gathered that Aradel Holdings and OPAC modular refineries were among the plants ready to refine crude. Operators of the plants requested not to name their refineries at the moment.

Ilori stated, “We have a good number of our members that are ready to produce refined petroleum products, but the major problem limiting them, which is stopping their financiers, is the issue of guaranteed feedstock.

“That is, where are they going to get crude oil to refine? The Petroleum Industry Act has come, and it states that there must be a domestic supply of crude for those who want to refine.

“As I speak with you, we have about five or six more companies coming onboard and are ready to begin production. This is aside from the four modular refineries that are already producing. The four of them are facing a limited supply of crude,” Ilori stated.

Duport Edo Refinery, Walter Smith Refinery, and Niger Delta Refinery are among the modular refineries that are currently in operation. The facilities produce diesel but in limited volumes due to inadequate feedstock.

On why domestic refineries were being starved of crude, Ilori said, “It is because many of those producing the crude want to export it to earn dollars. Also, Nigeria still needs to meet the crude oil production quota approved by OPEC for export.

“So most crude oil producers don’t want to sell to local refiners because some are owing banks and have projected how to export the commodity to clear their debts.”

He however said, “There is a circular from the NUPRC that is now being distributed to oil companies, mandating crude oil production firms to give domestic refineries a particular percentage for local refining.”

This was earlier confirmed by the NUPRC on Saturday when it stated that it was taking steps to ensure the provision of crude oil to domestic refineries.

“As more private refineries indicate readiness to commence production soon in Nigeria, the NUPRC is taking all the necessary steps within the prescriptions of the Petroleum Industry Act (2021) to ensure adequate and consistent supply of feedstock to operators,” the regulator stated, as it cautioned that there would be consequences for sabotaging the process.

Low production

Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, also confirmed the lack of crude to domestic refiners, noting that Nigeria’s inability to meet its crude oil production quota approved by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries was the major limiting factor.

Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries in its World Oil Outlook, launched in Saudi Arabia this month, projected the establishment of new modular refineries in Nigeria would complement the Dangote refinery to lift crude oil sales in Africa.

The Outlook says Africa will see a medium-term distillation capacity of 1.2 million barrels daily due to the upcoming 650,000-capacity Dangote Refinery, which is projected to boost Nigeria’s capacity.

FG comments

In a voice note sent to one of our correspondents by the media aide to the petroleum minister (oil), on the issue, the minister confirmed that domestic refineries were not getting enough crude, but stated that the government was working hard to address this.

“Today, we have cases where we have modular refineries that can refine products, but they have no crude because our production is down. So if we don’t get the upstream right, the midstream and downstream will also not be successful.

“So all our efforts, first of all, should ensure that we resolve the problems bedevilling the upstream sector. Since we came, we have engaged the IOCs (international oil companies), and they told us their concerns.

“I’m sure you heard a short while ago when the IOCs, NNPCL, being coordinated by the Ministry of Petroleum and local content, signed an MoU that there should be timelines instead of allowing the contractual cycle in the sector to take forever.

“And so the era of doing something for two years, what could be done in one month, is gone. It is one of the innovations we have brought to the sector,” Lokpobiri stated.

He, however, noted that since the current administration came on board, “we are steadily increasing production.

“When we were sworn in, the President told me, ‘Lokpobiri, the sole mandate is to go and ensure that you grow our production.’

“And how do we grow our production? If we don’t grow our production, which is upstream, the midstream and downstream will also not be successful.”

The minister said efforts were being intensified to ensure that the modular refineries get crude oil and produce refined white products to keep the country wet.

Nigeria has been producing far below the about 1.8 million barrels per day of crude oil production approved by OPEC. For instance, figures from the NUPRC showed that Nigeria’s crude oil was 1.35mbpd in September 2023.

Findings showed that Nigeria’s crude oil production (excluding condensates) was precisely 1,346,562 barrels per day in September, higher than the 1,181,133 bpd produced in August.

Data from the NUPRC further indicated that in January, February and March, the country’s oil outputs were 1,266,659bpd, 1,292,240bpd, and 1,266,737bpd, respectively.

In April, May, June and July, Nigeria produced 1,004,392bpd; 1,189,332bpd; 1,260,928bpd; and 1,089,089bpd, respectively. All the above crude oil production figures showed that Nigeria’s output was still lower than the OPEC quota.

Punch