RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

West ‘quietly shifting’ Ukraine strategy – Politico

The US and the EU have abandoned their objective of “total victory” of Ukraine over Russia in favor of a negotiated settlement that might cede some territory to Moscow, Politico reported on Wednesday citing several anonymous insiders.

Publicly, both the White House and the Pentagon insist there has been no official change in policy. Two unnamed US administration officials – including a White House spokesman – and an European diplomat have told Politico’s Michael Hirsh otherwise.

American and European officials are now “discussing the redeployment” of Ukrainian troops away from the “mostly failed” counteroffensive and into a defensive posture, according to Hirsh’s sources.

Hirsh also highlighted that US President Joe Biden used to promise to support Ukraine for “as long as it takes,” but is now saying “as long as we can” instead. With the additional aid funding stuck in Congress, the US government is pushing for “rapidly resurrecting” Ukraine’s own military industry.

The anonymous White House spokesman told Politico that negotiations have always been the US endgame in Ukraine, and that all the aid to Kiev has been intended to give it “the strongest hand possible when that comes.”

According to Politico, Biden wants a ceasefire in both Ukraine and the Middle East, as his endorsement of Israel’s offensive in Gaza is “costing him support” among the progressive Democrats, and he wants to “avoid bad headlines in an election year.”

Biden “can’t appear to be handing the advantage” to Russia after spending almost two years proclaiming its full backing of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky’s objective of total victory, Hirsh noted. 

The White House “can’t back down publicly because of the political risk”to Biden, said a congressional official described as familiar with the administration’s thinking, who acknowledged that discussions about peace talks “are starting.”

Last week, the New York Times reported that Moscow might be willing to accept a ceasefire freezing the current frontline. The Kremlin dismissed the story as “incorrect” while Kiev denounced the US newspaper of record as working for Russia.

What the White House fears now is that Russia may not be willing to negotiate until after the November 2024 election, while its forces might go on the offensive in the spring, according to Hirsh.

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

US to provide up to $250 mln in arms, equipment to Ukraine -Blinken

The U.S. will provide up to $250 million in arms and equipment to Ukraine in the final package of aid this year to help Kyiv in its war with Russia, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Wednesday.

President Joe Biden has asked Congress to provide another $61 billion in aid to Ukraine, but Republicans are refusing to approve the assistance without an agreement with Democrats to tighten security along the U.S.-Mexico border.

The White House has warned that without the additional appropriation U.S. aid will run out by the end of the year for Ukraine's fight to retake territory occupied by Russian forces since it invaded in February 2022.

Blinken said the latest aid package included air defense munitions, additional ammunition for high-mobility artillery rocket systems, artillery ammunition, anti-armor munitions and over 15 million rounds of ammunition.

Congress has approved more than $110 billion for Ukraine since Russia's invasion, but it has not approved any funds since Republicans took control of the House of Representatives from Democrats in January 2023.

RT/Reuters

For eight years, Bronnie Ware was an in-home caregiver who looked after people who were dying. Her clients knew they were severely ill, and most were in the last three to 12 weeks of their lives.

But Ware gradually realized that the most important role she was playing was not physical, but emotional. She was there to listen, and she catalogued those intimate reflections her book, “The Top Five Regrets of the Dying.”

In their last days, many of her patients shared with her their regrets. The most common answer, according to Ware, was: “I wish I had the courage to live a life true to myself, not the life others expected of me.”

“It is very important to try and honor at least some of your dreams along the way before it is too late,” she writes. “Health brings a freedom very few realize, until they no longer have it.”

As a psychologist, this is something I see all the time with my patients. I always tell them that to boost my happiness and stop the clock on regret, I work on developing an appreciation for time.

Why time is the most valuable resource we have

In the daily grind, it’s easy to fall out of alignment with what is most important to you.

But living with an awareness of our own mortality fundamentally changes what we value and how we choose to use our time. It unmasks the frivolous, empty pursuits our culture often validates.

Does the response to your social media post really matter? Does it matter what car you drive? Does it matter that a friend group boxes you out of their social circle? If they let you in, do you really want to spend your precious time with them?

Fully embracing the fact that we are not going to live forever brings our values into sharp focus. When the dermatologist tells you she wants to biopsy an irregular-shaped mark because it looks precancerous, you are likely are not thinking about the high-achieving image you have carefully constructed to present to your colleagues.

Once you recognize that time is the most precious of all commodities, there will no longer be a disconnect between the choices you want to make and the choices you actually make.

What will you regret at the end of your life?

You don’t need to wait and then look back and wish you had done things differently. You can start with a clean slate today. Simply ask yourself what you regret at this exact moment.

If you wish you were more present for your two-year-old daughter, you are likely going to have that same regret four decades from now. If you regret opting for the comfort and familiarity of your current job rather than reaching for the stars, you will likely have a similar regret down the road.

The big difference between now and then is that you have the ability to do something about it today.

Here’s another simple exercise that I love: When you say goodbye to someone, say it as if you might not ever see them again. Say goodbye in a way that you demonstrate the gratitude you have for the time you have spent together.

Start with one person today. Tomorrow, two. Work your way until it becomes part of your everyday routine.

** Michael Gervais is a high-performance psychologist and author

CNBC

Ondo State Governor, Rotimi Akeredolu, is dead.

Sources said the governor died on Wednesday at 67.

A chieftain of the ruling All Progressives Congress in the state said arrangements were being concluded to swear in his deputy, Lucky Aiyedatiwa.

The state government has yet to speak on the matter.

Efforts to get confirmation from the Alagbaka Government House proved abortive as of the time of filing this report.

When contacted, the Chief Press Secretary to the governor, Richard Olabode, did not take his calls nor respond to text messages sent to his phone by one of our correspondents.

Also, the state Commissioner for Information and Orientation, Mrs Bamidele Ademola-Olateju, did not take her calls when our correspondent contacted her on the matter.

Punch

Ghali Umar Na’Abba, a former speaker of the house of representatives, is dead. He was aged 65. 

The 4th speaker of Nigeria’s green chamber died at the National Hospital in Abuja around 3 am on Wednesday.

Na’Abba was born on September 27, 1958 in Tudun Wada, Kano state.

He was speaker of the house representatives, as a member of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), from 1999 to 2003.

He obtained a bachelor’s degree in Political Science from the Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria in 1979 and completed a postgraduate programme on Leadership and Good Governance at the Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University in the US in 2004. 

He lost his re-election bid to the house in 2003 after falling out with the presidency. As house speaker, Na’Abba was a constant thorn in the flesh of Olusegun Obasanjo, who was Nigeria’s president from 1999 to 2007.

In 2014, Na’Abba defected from the PDP to the All Progressives Congress (APC) and remained a political and public commentator until his passing.

The Cable

The special investigator panel on the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and related entities has summoned Babatunde Lemo, chairman of Titan Trust Bank (TTB), over the institution’s acquisition of Union Bank of Nigeria (UBN).

In a letter dated December 24, 2023, and signed by Eloho Okpoziakpo, head of operations at the office of the special investigator team, Cornelius Vink and Rahul Savara, the major shareholders in TTB, were also invited.

The letter, addressed to Lemo by Jim Obazee, head of the special investigator team, said the invited officials must present themselves by 2 pm on December 28, 2023, to the Department of Force Intelligence (DFI).

The panel’s recent report had disclosed how Godwin Emefiele, the former CBN governor, allegedly used two Dubai-based companies (Luxis International and Magna International) to set up Titan Trust Bank (TTB) as proxies for the acquisition of UBN.

Denying the claims, TTB said the transaction followed due process and met all regulatory requirements, including that of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the CBN.

‘OFFENSIVE DEFENCE’

But emphasising its findings, the probe panel labelled the bank’s rebuttal as an “offensive defence”.

Following TTB’s denial, the special investigator team said Lemo discussed with Obazee as well as sent an email “wherein you tried to provide clarification on your reaction to the report on TTB”.

“The defence seems contrary to the statements, made under caution, by the persons connected with these transactions, including your good self, before the Special Investigator at the Department of State Service (DSS) in August 2023,” the letter reads. 

According to a letter dated August 28, 2023, addressed to Vink, UBN’s managing director (MD), and TTB’s MD, the special investigator team had requested requisite documents regarding the two Dubai-based companies.

The panel further said details of the companies should include documentation “that led to the licensing of Titan Trust Bank and the acquisition of controlling shareholding of Union Bank of Nigeria by these entities”.

The panel also requested the companies’ proof of funds, internationally verifiable bank statements (from incorporation of the entities to date), and the shareholder that gave interest-free loans to the two entities separately (names, nationality, source of the fund, proof of such funds, bank statements).

Also, the special investigator team requested information regarding the entities’ relationship with Emefiele, Lemo, Andrew Ojei, and others.

However, in its response to the panel’s letter on September 1, 2023, UBN requested that “we submit the documents/information requested for in printed and electronic formats for ease of your review and analysis”.

The bank also said Vink and Savara would be unavailable for the meeting, noting that “they will be available for the meeting as soon as they are in Nigeria which we hope will be soon”.

‘TTB SUGGESTED VINK, SAVARA CLARIFY INVOLVEMENT IN THE COMPANY’

According to the special investigator team, based on earlier discussions with the entities, TTB suggested that Savara and Vink be invited to provide clarification on their share ownership and given seven days to make such clarification — “failure which they will forfeit their shares to the federal government”.

The special investigator team said it was shocked at the bank’s request with regard to the two shareholders, who were given the opportunity to appear before the panel since August 28, 2023, according to the letter.

The panel said instead of honouring the invitation and providing the requested documents, UBN informed the special investigator in its letter that “Mr. Cornelius Vink was out of the country on medical grounds” and that both “Messrs Vink and Savara will be available for the meeting as soon as they are in Nigeria which will be soon”. 

Until the defence in the public domain, the special investigator team said it has “neither heard from them nor received the requested documents”.

“Accordingly, you are hereby invited to come along with Messrs Cornelius Vink and Mr. Rahul Savara to meet with the Team of Special Investigators by 2pm on 28th December 2023 at the Department of Force Intelligence DFI), Opposite Nigeria Police Force Headquarters, Shehu Shagari Way, Area 11, Garki, Abuja; without fail or excuse,” the panel said.

“Please inform them to come along with all the documents/information requested from them by the letter to Mr. Cornelius Vink dated 28th August 2023 (attached herewith as Appendix 1). You will also be required to make additional statements to your earlier statement on that day.

“Kindly note that if Messrs Cornelius Vink and Rahul Savara refused to attend this meeting and provide/defend the requested documents/information, it will be construed that they have decided to forfeit their purported shareholdings in TTB and Union Bank of Nigeria; irrespective of which vehicle that they are using to own the purported shares.

The panel warned that if Lemo also refuses to attend the meeting to provide additional statement to his earlier statement made in August 2023, “it will be construed that you misled the Nigerian public with your reaction” in the newspapers “which has gained wide publicity in both electronic and print media”. 

The invitation, according to the special investigator team, is to further ensure that it is beyond reasonable doubt, “the federal government has given the company a fair hearing”.

The Cable

Mother-of-three Grace Godwin was preparing food on Christmas Eve when her husband burst into the kitchen and ordered her and the children to run and take cover in the bush after gunmen were spotted in a nearby village.

Soon they heard gunfire, starting an hours-long attack by suspected nomadic herders who rampaged through 15 villages in central Plateau state on Sunday, killing at least 140 people with guns and machetes, officials, police and residents said.

It was the bloodiest violence since 2018 when more than 200 people were killed in Nigeria's central region where clashes between herders and farmers are common.

"We returned at 6 the next morning and found that houses had been burnt and people killed. There are still people missing," Godwin said by phone.

"There is no one in Mayanga (village), women and children have all fled."

It was not immediately clear what triggered Sunday's attacks but violence in the region, known as the "Middle Belt", is often characterised as ethno-religious - chiefly Muslim Fulani herdsmen clashing with mainly Christian farmers.

But experts and politicians say climate change and expanding agriculture are creating competition for land, pushing farmers and herders into conflict.

Nomadic cattle herders are from northern Nigeria, which is getting drier and becoming more prone to drought and floods. That is forcing them to trek further south, where farmers are increasing production as the population rapidly expands.

That means less land for nomads and their cattle, supporting the view among local people that the conflict is based on the availability of resources rather than ethnic or religious differences.

"These attacks have been recurring. They want to drive us out of our ancestral land but we will continue to resist these assaults," said Magit Macham, who had returned from the state capital Jos to celebrate Christmas with his family.

Macham was chatting to his brother outside his house when the sputtering sound of a petrol generator was interrupted by gunshots. His brother was hit by a bullet in the leg but Macham dragged him into the bush where they hid for the night.

"We were taken unawares and those that could run ran into the bush. A good number of those that couldn't were caught and killed with machetes," he said.

Plateau governor called the violence "unprovoked" and police said several houses, cars and motorcycles were burnt.

President Bola Tinubu, who has yet to spell out how he intends to tackle widespread insecurity, described the attacks as "primitive and cruel" and directed police to track down those responsible.

Reuters

Governor of Plateau State, Celeb Mutfwang says no fewer than 64 communities in the state have been displaced by terrorists who are occupying the areas and some schools.

Speaking on the recent attacks in the state, Mutfwang highlighted the immense burden placed on the state by the continuous displacement of citizens due to terrorist activities.

He told Channels TV on Tuesday that they celebrated Christmas with heavy heart with not less than 17 communities attacked.

He said, “When people are dislocated from their villages and they have to run for shelter, now we are struggling to provide shelter for these people that have been displaced and dislocated from their communities.

“If they stay away from those communities for a sustained period of time, the terrorists would come in. As I am talking to you today (Tuesday), in Riyom Local Government, in Barikin Ladi Local Government, schools have been occupied by these terrorists for a number of years now.

“We have not less than 64 communities that have been displaced and their lands have been taken over by these terrorists.”

Furthermore, the Governor condemned the perceived inaction under the previous administration, stating that residents felt the terrorists were given official government backing.

He emphasized that the current occupation of schools did not happen overnight, with some having been seized for as long as five years.

“Under the last regime the feeling among people in Plateau State particularly the victims of these terrorists attacks is that it looks as if the terrorists were given official government backing to be able to terrorise them because little or nothing was done to repel those attacks.

“I can tell you these schools that are being occupied, it didn’t just start now, some of those schools have been occupied in the last three, four, five years.

“Children therefore in those schools have not been able to go to school, they have to relocate, we even have primary health care centres abandoned because of these terrorists which means that our health care system is put in jeopardy, what do we need to do? I think this is where the president needs to come in,” he added.

Daily Trust

Israeli military says Gaza ground offensive has expanded into urban refugee camps

Israeli forces on Tuesday expanded their ground offensive into urban refugee camps in central Gaza after bombarding the crowded Palestinian communities and ordering residents to evacuate. Gaza’s main telecom provider announced another “complete interruption” of services in the besieged territory.

The military’s announcement of the new battle zone threatens further destruction in a war that Israel says will last for “many months” as it vows to crush the ruling Hamas militant group after its Oct. 7 attack. Israeli forces have been engaged in heavy urban fighting in northern Gaza and the southern city of Khan Younis, driving Palestinians into ever-smaller areas in search of refuge.

The U.S. said Israel’s minister for strategic affairs, Ron Dermer, was meeting with Secretary of State Antony Blinken and national security adviser Jake Sullivan to discuss topics including transitioning to a different phase of the war to maximize focus on high-value Hamas targets, improving the humanitarian situation, and planning for governance and security in Gaza after the war.

Despite U.S. calls for Israel to curb civilian casualties and international pressure for a cease-fire, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the military was deepening the fighting.

“We say to the Hamas terrorists: We see you and we will get to you,” Netanyahu said.

Israel’s offensive is one of the most devastating military campaigns in recent history. More than 20,900 Palestinians, two-thirds women and children, have been killed, according to the Health Ministry in Gaza, whose count doesn’t differentiate between civilians and combatants. The agency said 240 people were killed over the past 24 hours.

The U.N. human rights office said the continued bombardment of middle Gaza had claimed more than 100 Palestinian lives since Christmas Eve. The office noted that Israel had ordered some residents to move there.

Israel said it would no longer grant automatic visas to U.N. employees and accused the world body of being “complicit partners” in Hamas’ tactics. Government spokesman Eylon Levy said Israel would consider visa requests case by case. That could further limit aid efforts in Gaza.

Residents of central Gaza described shelling and airstrikes shaking the Nuseirat, Maghazi and Bureij camps. The built-up towns hold Palestinians driven from their homes in what is now Israel during the 1948 war, along with their descendants.

“The bombing was very intense,” Radwan Abu Sheitta said by phone from Bureij.

The Israeli military ordered residents to evacuate a belt of territory the width of central Gaza, urging them to move to nearby Deir al-Balah. The U.N. humanitarian office said the area ordered evacuated was home to nearly 90,000 people before the war and now shelters more than 61,000 displaced people, mostly from the north.

The military later said it was operating in Bureij and asserted that it had located a Hamas training camp.

The telecom outage announced by Paltel follows similar outages through much of the war. NetBlocks, a group that tracks internet outages, confirmed that network connectivity in Gaza was disrupted again and “likely to leave most residents offline.”

Senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan said several countries had sent proposals to resolve the conflict following news of an Egyptian proposal that would include a transitional Palestinian government in Gaza and the occupied West Bank. He did not offer details of the proposals.

REGIONAL SPILLOVER

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Israel faces a “multi-arena war” on seven fronts — Gaza and the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran. “We have responded and acted already on six of these,” he told the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee.

Iranian-backed militia groups around the region have stepped up attacks in support of Hamas.

Iranian-backed militias in Iraq carried out a drone strike on a U.S. base in Irbil on Monday, wounding three American service members, according to U.S. officials. In response, U.S. warplanes hit three locations in Iraq connected to a main militia, Kataib Hezbollah.

Almost daily, Hezbollah and Israel exchange missiles, airstrikes and shelling across the Israeli-Lebanese border. On Tuesday, Israel’s military said Hezbollah struck a Greek Orthodox church in northern Israel with a missile, wounding two Israeli Christians, and fired again on arriving soldiers, wounding nine.

“Hezbollah is risking the stability of the region for the sake of Hamas,” said Israel’s military spokesman, Daniel Hagari.

In the Red Sea, attacks by Houthi rebels in Yemen against commercial ships have disrupted trade and prompted a U.S.-led multinational naval operation to protect shipping routes. The Israeli military said a fighter jet on Tuesday shot down a “hostile aerial target” above the Red Sea that the military asserted was on its way to Israeli territory.

The USS Laboon, a Navy destroyer, and American fighter jets shot down 12 drones, three anti-ship ballistic missiles and two land-attack cruise missiles in the southern Red Sea that were fired by the Yemen-based Houthis over a 10-hour period Tuesday, according to the Pentagon. U.S. Central Command said there was no damage to ships in the area or reported injuries.

A MASS GRAVE

More than 85% of Gaza’s 2.3 million people have been driven from their homes. U.N. officials say a quarter of the territory’s population is starving under Israel’s siege, which allows in a trickle of food, water, fuel, medicine and other supplies. Last week, the U.N. Security Council called for immediately speeding up aid deliveries, but there has been little sign of change.

In an area Israel had declared a safe zone, a strike hit a home in Mawasi, a rural area in the southern province of Khan Younis. One woman was killed and at least eight were wounded, according to a cameraman working for The Associated Press at the nearby hospital.

In response, Israel’s military said that it wouldn’t refrain from operating in safe zones, “if it identifies terrorist organization activity threatening the security of Israel.”

Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack in southern Israel killed around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and took about 240 others hostage. Israel aims to free the more than 100 hostages who remain in captivity.

President Joe Biden and Qatar’s ruling emir, Amir Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani, spoke on Tuesday, discussing the urgent effort to secure the release of all remaining hostages held by Hamas, including American citizens. The leaders also discussed the ongoing efforts to facilitate increased and sustained flows of life-saving access to humanitarian aid into Gaza.

Israel blames Hamas for the high civilian death toll in Gaza, citing militants’ use of crowded residential areas and tunnels. Israel says it has killed thousands of militants, without presenting evidence.

At the Kerem Shalom border crossing, U.N. and Gazan medical workers unloaded a truck carrying about 80 unidentified bodies that had been held by Israeli forces in northern Gaza. They were buried in a mass grave.

Medical workers called the odors unbearable. “We cannot open this container in a neighborhood where people live,” Marwan al-Hams, health emergency committee director in Rafah, told the AP. He said the health and justice ministries would investigate the bodies for possible “war crimes.”

The Israeli military announced the deaths of two more soldiers, bringing the total killed since the ground offensive began to 161.

AP

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine strikes Russian naval landing warship, Moscow admits damage

Ukraine struck a large Russian landing warship in Crimea with cruise missiles in an overnight attack that killed at least one person and could hinder any Russian attempt to seize more Ukrainian territory along the Black Sea coast.

The Russian defence ministry, cited by the Interfax news agency, said Ukraine had used air-launched missiles to attack the Crimean port of Feodosia and that the Novocherkassk large landing ship had been damaged.

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu had briefed President Vladimir Putin in detail about the attack, the Kremlin said. Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 in a move Kyiv and the West condemned as an illegal seizure.

Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat said he thought it would be hard for the Novocherkassk - which can carry tanks and armoured vehicles and be used to land troops ashore - to re-enter service.

"We can see how powerful the explosion was, what the detonation was like. After that, it’s very hard for a ship to survive, because this was not a rocket, this is the detonation of munitions," he told Radio Free Europe.

Ukraine had used cruise missiles in the attack, without specifying what kind, Ihnat said. Both Britain and France have supplied Kyiv with such missiles.

Russia has hinted it may try to seize more Ukrainian territory along the Black Sea coast. Putin earlier this month said that Odessa, the headquarters of Ukraine's own navy, was "a Russian city."

Footage posted on Russian news outlets on Telegram, purportedly from the port, showed powerful explosions detonating and fires burning.

Unverified social media videos purporting to capture the strike showed a vast explosion and ballooning flames lighting up the night sky. An unverified daytime photograph, which Ukrainian bloggers claimed showed the ship's remains, depicted a charred, elongated clump of debris emerging out of the water by a dock.

Sergei Aksyonov, the Russian-installed governor of Crimea, said on Telegram that one person had been killed. The RIA news agency said four people had been injured.

Although a Ukrainian counteroffensive has made little in the way of battlefield gains and the Russian military has regained the initiative in several places, Ukraine has been able to launch a series of attacks on Crimea, the headquarters of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, inflicting serious damage.

Previous attacks have targeted ships in dry docks, warships moored in the main port of Sevastopol, airfields, the main Black Sea Fleet HQ building, and the bridge which connects southern Russia to Crimea.

Throughout the war, Russia has used its fleet to impede Ukraine's access to the Black Sea, the main export route for the agriculture and steel exports that formed a significant chunk of the country's economy.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy quipped on Telegram that his air force had added to Russia's submarine fleet by damaging the landing ship.

"There will not be a single peaceful place for the occupiers in Ukraine," Zelenskiy wrote.

The Ukrainian air force said its pilots had attacked Feodosia at about 0230 (0030 GMT), destroying the Novocherkassk.

"And the fleet in Russia is getting smaller and smaller! Thanks to the Air Force pilots and everyone involved for the filigree work!" the commander of Ukraine's air force, Mykola Oleshchuk, said on Telegram.

Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin adviser, said on Telegram it was obvious that Russia would not release detailed information about the attack at a time of war, but said Russia needed to do more to protect its assets in Crimea.

"It's clear that Crimea's air defence systems must be strengthened. And it is clear that it (Ukraine) needs to be deprived of the opportunity to hit Russia," Markov said.

Feodosia, which has a population of around 69,000 people, lies on the southern coast of the Crimean Peninsula.

** Russian forces shell Kherson rail station, one policeman dead -Ukraine interior minister

Russian forces shelled the railway station in the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson on Tuesday as a train was set to evacuate residents, killing one policeman and injuring four people, Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said.

Klymenko said about 140 civilians had been at the station in the early evening and quick action by police to direct them away saved many lives.

"Thanks to the clear actions of the police, everyone was successfully taken to safe places," Klymenko said on Telegram. "Unfortunately, a police lieutenant from the Kirovohrad region lost his life due to the shelling. ... Two more police officers are in the hospital with shrapnel wounds."

Two civilians were also being treated for shrapnel wounds.

Kherson was captured by Russian forces in the first days of the February 2022 invasion but retaken by Ukrainian forces a little more than a year ago. It is under constant attack from Russian forces entrenched in new positions on the east bank of the Dnipro River, with shelling very heavy in recent days.

Video posted on social media showed debris and shattered building materials in different areas of the station.

Ukrainian railways said evacuees were taken from the station by bus northwest to the town of Mykolaiv, which has been subject to fewer Russian attacks. Delayed trains were rescheduled.

The general prosecutor's office said Russian shelling had struck other infrastructure sites and dwellings in the city.

Roman Mrochko, head of Kherson's military administration, had earlier reported a series of Russian attacks using different weapons. Four people were injured.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Zaluzhny concedes Ukrainian forces pulled out of Maryinka

Ukrainian troops have retreated from the town of Maryinka in the Donetsk People's Republic, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny said at a televised news conference.

"Ukrainian troops have withdrawn. In some places they have entrenched themselves in the vicinity of Maryinka, and in other places - a little further away," he said.

Zaluzhy also said that "the city of Maryinka no longer exists".

On Monday, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu told Russian President Vladimir Putin that the Russian Armed Forces liberated Marinka in the Donetsk People's Republic, which means they drove Ukrainian artillery further away from Donetsk and made it possible to improve the city’s defenses against strikes. According to Shoigu, over the past nine years, Ukraine turned the town, located five kilometers from Donetsk, into a powerful fortification with underground passages. It was "cracked open thanks to the decisive actions of our servicemen," he said.

Reuters/Tass

It is part metaphor, part myth and part history. Thomas Hobbes thought life there was nasty, brutish and short. John Locke disagreed, proclaiming that it was where people first learnt how to own things. Jean-Jacques Rousseau described it as the place where people were born free, before they became ensnared in chains. Robert Nozick thought that people were so desperate to escape it, there was an inevitable result: the creation of a state.

Ideas about the “state of nature”—how people lived before politics organised itself into governments—have held the attention of philosophers for centuries. Discovering whether it played out as imagined was nigh-on impossible. And yet thinking about what people would do without a government helped answer profound questions. What are the limits of political power? Is the modern state something that citizens would freely choose?

Now, after all this theorising, three economists think they have some empirical answers. According to Robert Allen of New York University, Abu Dhabi, Leander Heldring of Northwestern University and Mattia Bertazzini of the University of Nottingham, the key to understanding the emergence of modern politics is not a metaphor, but the constantly shifting courses of ancient rivers in Iraq. The first states, they argue in a paper published in the American Economic Review, were glued together not as shelters from violence, as Hobbes believed, but by economics.

The banks of the Tigris and the Euphrates, Iraq’s two longest rivers, are home to some of the world’s oldest settlements. Mesopotamia, which 5,000 years ago refined the first known system of writing, earned the area the reputation of “the cradle of civilisation”. The paths of these rivers shift, as floods and droughts cause their beds to flood. When a shift came, some ancient farmers were left without water for their crops.

Allen and his co-authors investigate whether the timing of changes to a river’s course had anything to do with when the number and size of settlements grew. They do so by looking at the effect of the first recorded shift in 2,850BC. This presented farmers with something close to the choice imagined by philosophers when theorising about the state of nature. Those left behind by the river could revert to nomadism. Or they could band together to build irrigation systems to ferry water from distant rivers.

A philosophical question is therefore transformed into something akin to a laboratory experiment, only one set thousands of years ago and extending hundreds of miles across. Moreover, the results of the experiment are clear. A 5km-by-5km square in the basin left behind by a river was 14% more likely to have a settlement, marked by a public building such as a temple or marketplace, 150 years after the shift than in the 50 years before it. Each square was 12% more likely to have a built canal, a form of artificial irrigation that made farming far from rivers possible. Five new cities were created, and only three abandoned. Esnunna, one city along a new tributary of the river, became much bigger.

This, Allen and his co-authors say, is evidence that that the fist states were formed by farmers co-operating for economic reasons. A canal network would have been too large a cost for any to bear alone. But by spreading the cost, the construction was worth it for each. Such decisions were momentous. They represent some of the earliest examples of governments providing infrastructure in return for taxes, and thus the genesis of the earliest states.

The authors then divide centuries of thinking on the origins of states into two camps. The first, which they say ranges from Daron Acemoglu, an influential economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, to Karl Marx, supposes that states ultimately emerge from a process of social bargaining. The rich and high-status seize power for personal gain, and periodically dole out services, such as a road, school or police force, in order to keep populations on board. But if this had been the case in Mesopotamia then it would have been in the areas that a river shifted towards that settlements would have formed. After all, they developed richer and more fertile farmland, yielding a bigger tax take.

That Mesopotamian farmers seem to have chosen to band together as the river shifted away lends support to the second camp. Philosophers in this group, who include Locke and Rousseau, contend that governments emerged when people chose to co-ordinate themselves, swapping their freedom to do whatever they wanted for a state that mediates disputes and provides a degree of safety. Allen and his co-authors analyse only Mesopotamian Iraq, but they argue that their results ought to apply more generally to other fledgling states. Governments, in other words, are chosen rather than foisted upon their citizens.

Meandering path

This is quite the landgrab by economists, seizing terrain that is more commonly occupied by political theorists. The study is not flawless. Perhaps an unknown conquest explains the spread of settlements in the period under consideration. Maybe the authors are wrong and the pattern does not hold elsewhere. There were already six cities and many more settlements in the Mesopotamian Valley before its rivers really began to move, and some had existed for a thousand years. The authors insist that they are only interested in how new governments form, but there is a chance they have in fact captured older ones spreading.

The paper is nevertheless bold and valuable. Philosophers have sought for centuries to explain why states emerge. Too little time has been spent considering whether economic factors might have been at play. Although transforming the state of nature into a specific time and place means losing some of its complexity, doing so opens the door to the sort of experiment that could only have been imagined by earlier philosophers. If Hobbes or Locke could have studied something approximating the state of nature about which they were theorising, they surely would have tried.

The Economist