Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) says accounts without a bank verification number (BVN) or national identification number (NIN) will be restricted from March 1, 2024.

In a circular on Friday, CBN said a “Post No Debit or Credit” will be placed on funded accounts without BVN or NIN on March 1, 2024.

CBN said it has also amended the regulatory framework for BVN operations and watch-list for the Nigerian banking industry to strengthen the know-your-customer (KYC) procedures in financial institutions.

“As part of its effort in promoting financial system stability, it becomes necessary to strengthen the Know Your Customer (KYC) procedures in financial institutions under the purview of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN),” CBN said.

“Accordingly, the CBN hereby issues an amendment to Section 1.5.3 of the Regulatory Framework for Bank Verification Number (BVN) Operations and Watch-List for the Nigerian Banking Industry (The Guidelines).”

CBN said part of the amendment includes mandatory BVN and NIN for all tier-1 bank accounts and wallets for individuals.

Also, the apex bank said it remains mandatory for tiers two and three accounts and wallets for individual accounts to have BVN and NIN.

In the circular, CBN said the process for account opening would commence by “electronically retrieving BVN or NIN-related information from the NIBSS’ BVN or NIMC’s NIN databases and for same to become the primary information for onboarding of new customers”.

The amendment also requires all existing customer accounts and wallets for individuals with validated BVN to be profiled in the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS) industry customer account database (ICAD) immediately and within 24 hours of opening accounts and wallets.

“Effective immediately, no new Tier 1 accounts and wallets should be opened without BVN or NIN,” CBN said.

“For ALL existing Tier1 accounts/wallets without BVN or NIN: Effective immediately, any unfunded account/wallet shall be placed on “Post No Debit or Credit” until the new process is satisfied.

“Effective March 1, 2024, all funded accounts or wallets shall be placed on “Post No Debit or Credit” and no further transactions permitted.

CBN said all BVN or NIN attached to all accounts and wallets must be electronically revalidated by January 31, 2024.

The Cable

A member of the House of Representatives, Yusuf Galambi, has accused President Bola Tinubu of presenting ’empty’ boxes supposedly containing the 2024 budget to the joint session of the National Assembly.

Galambi, a member of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) representing Gwaram federal constituency of Jigawa State, made the allegation during an interview with BBC Hausa Service on Friday.

The lawmaker, in the interview, said Tinubu read out his budget speech including proposals for sectors but did not give the lawmakers the documents as was the tradition by previous presidents.

The president, on Wednesday, presented the N27.5 trillion proposed budget for 2024 to the joint session of the National Assembly co-chaired by the Senate President, Godswill Akpabio, and the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Abbas Tajudeen.

Christened ‘Budget of Renewed Rope’. the proposal was designed to address economic growth, human capital development, poverty reduction and insecurity, according to Mr Tinubu.

Procedurally, after reading his budget speech, Tinubu laid two boxes containing the budget documents on the table in front of the presiding officers.

The boxes had the colour of the Nigerian national flag of green-white-green.

Both chambers read the budget for the first time on Wednesday shortly after Tinubu presented it.

They also passed the document for a second reading on Friday after two days of debate and subsequently referred it to their committees on appropriation.

Empty boxes

Galambi said the boxes Tinubu ‘bowed’ and kept for the lawmakers were empty.

“The president read out to us his speech on the proposed budget but we’ve not seen the document to work on.

“Of course, he read the estimates for the various sectors. But as it has always been the tradition, a document is always presented (to the lawmakers) but he (Tinubu) didn’t do that,” he said.

When the BBC reporter insisted that the president was seen laying the “document”, Galambi said when the lawmakers checked they couldn’t find anything in the boxes laid by Tinubu.

“We’ve checked but there was nothing inside. We checked it. In the history of the National Assembly, this was the first time such a thing happened.

“The constitution has made it clear (that a document must be presented) but this time, it was only a reading on paper. They didn’t provide the document for us to go through and see what is proposed for each sector. Maybe they’ll bring it later,” Galambi said.

The opposition lawmaker, who was first elected into the House in 2007, said the decision by Tinubu to present empty boxes surprised the lawmakers because “we never expected it even in our wildest dreams.”

Galambi accused the president of deceit.

“If he (Tinubu) was not ready, if the budget proposal was not ready to be presented, he shouldn’t have come and said he was done. We could have given him more time, why the haste? Why would he come and read something and even say he has kept it (document) when it’s empty,” he said.

Cover up

The lawmaker alleged that the leaders of the National Assembly are covering up Tinubu’s act.

“They (leaders of the National Assembly) don’t want anyone to talk about it. Maybe they were not informed or were possibly aware of what was planned and they decided not to inform us,” he said.

When contacted, Senior Special Assistant to the President on Print Media, Abdulaziz Abdulaziz, said the allegation was aimed at misleading the public.

“It’s a nonsensical allegation aimed to mislead. The president is never expected to present the whole haul of heavy documents. What happened at the laying is like the presentation of dummy cheques at award ceremonies. The real thing always follows,” Abdulaziz said in a WhatsApp message sent to PREMIUM TIMES on Friday.

PT

As from February next year, passengers arriving into the country would not have any business with immigration personnel at the nation’s international airports, Minister of Interior, Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo has disclosed.

This follows the pending inauguration of e-gate with the first consignment being expected to be installed at the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja.

He also disclosed that there are no backlogs of passports at the moment, saying the Nigerian Immigration Service (NIS), acting on his directive, had cleared the backlogs of 204,232 passports and another 50,000 within two weeks and five days respectively.

Tunji-Ojo disclosed these on Friday at the Murtala Muhammed International Airport (MMIA) during the opening of the newly renovated e-arrival wing of the airport undertaken by Shell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC).

The minister said with the e-gate, contact with an immigration officer would have been completely eradicated at the airports.

According to him, this would be achieved with advanced passengers’ information and pre-profiling by immigration officers as it is done abroad.

In addition, he stated that the automation of the passport process which would commence before the end of this month would enable passport applicants to upload their documents online which would be verified while the applicants would be sent an email to come and receive the passport.

However, he stated that the e-gate is the crux of the reform aimed at facilitating passengers’ processing at the airport.

He said, “By February once you are in Nigeria and you are coming into the country, you have no business with an immigration officer unless you are a person of interest, you are of security concern. What we are doing is to make sure that we have Advanced Passengers’ Information and once we have that, we have your record before you come, immigration can do what we call pre-profiling as it is done abroad and once you come into Nigeria as a Nigerian, just tab your passport, look into the cameras, once you are good, you go. You don’t need an Immigration Officer to affect your life.”

He commended the NIS Controller General, Carol Wura-Ola Adepoju and the retiring Deputy Controller-General in charge of Passports, DCG Saadat Hassan for ensuring the clearance of the backlogs in record times.

He said, “When I was appointed, I called both of them, the acting CG then and DCG Passports and I said it is unacceptable for Nigerians to see a passport as a privilege, it is a right and never again in the history of this country will any Nigerian right be seen as a privilege.

“I asked them how long will it take them, they said, ‘Oga give us one month’, I said no. If you can’t do it in two weeks, just submit your resignation letters, you are out and sincerely, 204,332 backlogs were cleared immediately.

“And it would interest you, they did this without us as a government putting in a dime extra. We didn’t buy anything, we didn’t put in a Kobo and they cleared it. And within the two weeks we had another backlog of over 50,000 and at the end of the day within five days, we cleared the 50,000 and I told them never again must there be backlogs in Nigeria.

“And I can tell you as of today, by the grace of God, we don’t have backlogs. We are bringing a reform that would make Nigerians get their passports within 96 hours. From your date of biometric enrolment you should not wait for more than 96 hours before you get your passport, that is the dream, it is ultimate target, it is doable because by the time we automate the process, this is 2023, this is not 1993, why must you need to change your name? A woman gets married, she wants to get a passport, because her surname has changed, she needs to leave Kaura Namoda or Port Harcourt to Immigration Headquarters in Abuja… the risk of road, the economy, the discomfort, the inconvenience all these things will have to stop.

“We have said going forward, all you need to do, you make your application, you upload all your supporting documents, we have our investigative unit that investigates the genuineness of these documents and once they are confirmed, we will send you an email to go to the nearest immigration office to obtain your passport. Why must Nigerians travel kilometre for the sake of passports?

“We have also made sure that before the end of this December, the only reason to go to an Immigration Office would be only for your fingerprint, not for your picture, not for you to carry any supporting document, upload all these things online, this is the era of technology.”

The minister commended his Aviation and Aerospace Development Counterpart, Festus Keyamo for his support in actualising the proposed e-gate.

Managing Director of the Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria (FAAN), Mall. Muhammad Kabir represented by the Director of Airports Operations, Mukhtar Muye said the renovation of the e-arrival “signifies more than just an upgrade of our facilities,” adding, “It is a symbol of progress, a beacon of our nation’s growth, and a clear indication of our commitment to seamless passage of passengers through our airport facilities.”

“It is a step towards making Nigeria a key player in the global aviation industry,” he added.

According to the MD, the MMIA is not just a gateway to Nigeria, but a hub to sub-Saharan Africa as a whole.

“With these innovations, we are sure that every traveller, whether Nigerian or international, will experience the warmth, efficiency, and spirit of excellence that our country embodies,” he added.

Daily Trust

The muck from incessant rain sloshes around Nestor N’Guessan’s feet as he points to a plot of cocoa trees ravaged by rot on his farm in Ivory Coast.

The 52-year-old grower can’t save those plants from black pod disease, so he’s focusing efforts on quarantining whatever healthy ones he has left. The soakings of recent months mean fewer pods on his trees, with some supporting just a handful of cocoa buds.

“I had to create a boundary to prevent the rest of the plantation from being contaminated,” he said while pruning the healthy thicket. “Yields are low. The weather hasn’t helped us.”

It’s a climate crisis playing out across Ivory Coast and Ghana, the heavyweights of cocoa, with consequences for global food inflation and the cost-of-living squeeze. Too much rain is lowering output and delaying harvests, with the resulting shortfall catapulting wholesale prices in New York to their highest in 46 years.

The total precipitation in West Africa since the rainy season started May 1 has been more than double the 30-year average, according to Maxar Technologies Inc. The damage to yields is compounded by growers’ long struggle over pay, leaving them little money to pour back into their plots.

This is the main harvest period, and the constant deluge turns dirt roads into impassable swamps, knocks flowers off before they bud and fosters breeding of a fungal infection that turns rugby ball-sized pods into black mush.

Ghana’s output is expected to be the lowest in 13 years, and Ivory Coast’s the smallest in seven, based on totals provided by traders and exporters. Together, the countries produce about 60% of the world’s beans, according to the International Cocoa Organization.

The most-active futures are trading at the highest since 1977 in New York, soaring past $4,200 a ton. At that price, you could buy about 50 barrels of oil.

“This is a bull market, and it hasn’t peaked yet,” said Fuad Mohammed Abubakar, head of government-affiliated Ghana Cocoa Marketing Co. (UK) Ltd., which sells and exports premium cocoa. “More risks lie ahead.”

With sugar also reaching a decade high, consumers likely will spend morefor their chocolate bars, cookies and hot cocoa as Christmas approaches. The US Department of Agriculture forecasts prices for sugar and sweets rising 8.9% this year and another 5.6% next year, outpacing total food inflation.

Citing higher supply costs, Mondelez International Inc., maker of Toblerone bars and Oreo cookies, will raise some prices next year, Chief Executive Officer Dirk Van de Put told Bloomberg Television on Nov. 6. Nestle SA, owner of Haagen-Dazs ice cream and Quality Street candies, said it will do the same.

It would be logical to conclude that farmers benefit from the bounty, but in reality they’re not — even with the $400-a-ton premium tacked onto the market price as the living income differential.

The cocoa markets in Ivory Coast and Ghana are strictly controlled by the governments, and regulators typically sell beans to foreign buyers at least 12 months in advance.

That means the money being paid to farmers for this season’s crop was locked in about a year ago, when futures were about $2,500 a ton.

“At current farmgate prices, farmers aren’t incentivized to go into the farms,” said Mahmoud Khayat, senior trader at Ivory Cocoa Products, a bean processing company. “If prices were high, he would swim to get the cocoa.”

Right now, growers are waiting on the government’s negotiations for next season with top buyers such as Barry Callebaut AG, Cargill Inc. and Olam International Ltd. The sides are in a standoff, with the companies holding off purchases because they want a discount, according to people familiar with the matter.

Typically, there would be a push to plant more seedlings to capitalize on the boom, but many growers are prisoners to the rain and can’t afford to hire more hands, use more fertilizer or buy the necessary chemicals to ward off black pod.

The soil on Samuel Addo’s 12-acre plot in Suhum district, Ghana — about 65 kilometers (40 miles) north of the capital, Accra — has a sandy consistency, making it a bit more difficult to grow cocoa even in the best conditions.

After a heavy downpour, nearly every tree sprouted a pod that was either rotting or turning black. The only way to tame the spread is for Addo to spray his buds, called cherelles, every two weeks, but that expense is out of reach.

“It’s never attacked my farm this bad since I started farming cocoa,” Addo, 52, said. “What I’m earning is not enough to invest back into the farm.”

The El Nino weather pattern could trigger more hardship ahead as dry conditions typically set in across West Africa. Global output hasn’t met demand for the past two seasons, and it’s expected to stay that way for several more years, Abubakar said.

“The supply response will not be instant,” he said. “It will take time for higher prices to boost production.”

Plus, deforestation regulations coming from the European Union — a major hub for West Africa's crop — are likely to escalate costs as beans are tracked through the supply chain.

At this time of the year, processing plants in San Pedro, Ivory Coast’s main export hub, should be running at full tilt to clean, fumigate and pack the beans into 65-kilogram (143-pound) jute bags ready for shipment.

Yet total port arrivals in the season that started Oct. 1 total 479,449 tons, compared with an estimated 707,200 tons a year ago. That’s a 32% drop.

The dearth of supply forced Societe Ivoirienne de Transformation de Produits Agricoles, which can process more than 1,500 tons a day, to idle one of its machines the day a Bloomberg reporter visited.

The exporter is receiving about 20 cargo trucks daily, compared with about 24-26 trucks a year ago. The artery to the cocoa basket — a rugged road to begin with — is now pocked by holes brimming with rainwater, making the journey even more treacherous.

The National Federation of Dockers, which represents workers in Ivory Coast’s main ports, said this season has been abnormal. During a recent week, it counted 29 trucks in San Pedro and 32 in Abidjan, compared with 70 and 61, respectively, a year earlier.

“The flow of cocoa harvest arrivals is very low,” the federation said in an email. “Members who are usually very busy unloading cocoa bags from trucks have been redeployed to other jobs.”

The challenging climate and low pay are prompting some farmers to give up their beans in favor of other commodities, notably rubber and gold.

N’Guessan’s farm in Soubre, Ivory Coast’s cocoa heartland, is about a seven-hour drive from Abidjan. In recent years, vast rubber plantations sprung up around him to satisfy demand for tires, hoses and other products.

Rubber trees need less maintenance, and Ivory Coast is now the top producer in Africa.

“Many planters have abandoned cocoa,” he said.

In Ghana, the lure is gold. Artisanal mining accounts for about a third of the country’s output, and farmers talk about companies persistently offering them large sums of money to give up their land.

A ride through the nation’s cocoa belt finds many plantations replaced by what are known locally as galamsey.

“There is a myth that cocoa farms are often sitting on gold-rich stones,” grower Michael Acheampong said, looking at the mine next door. “Some farmers cannot resist the allure of quick money.”

The Cote d’Ivoire-Ghana Cocoa Initiative was created by both nations to dim that luster. The cartel’s purpose is to raise prices paid to farmers, saying they haven’t covered the costs of production or guaranteed a living wage for decades, Executive Secretary Alex Assanvo said.

“If farmers see high prices today and a lower price is given to them, how do we see farmers continue growing cocoa?” he said.

Bloomberg

Israel’s war with Hamas resumes with airstrikes in Gaza after a weeklong truce ends

Israel’s war with Hamas erupted again Friday, as airstrikes hit houses and buildings in the Gaza Strip minutes after a weeklong truce expired. Health authorities in the besieged territory reported dozens of Palestinians killed and Israel dropped leaflets over Gaza City and southern parts of the enclave, urging civilians to flee to avoid the fighting.

Militants in Gaza resumed firing rockets into Israel, and fighting broke out between Israel and Hezbollah militants operating along its northern border with Lebanon.

The resumption of the war threatens to compound the suffering in Gaza. Some 2 million people -- almost its entire population -- are crammed into the territory’s south, where Israel urged people to relocate at the war’s start and has since vowed to extend its ground assault. Unable to go into northern Gaza or neighboring Egypt, their only escape is to move around within the 85-square-mile area (220 square kilometers).

Renewed hostilities also heighten concerns for about 140 hostages still held captive by Hamas and other militants, after more than 100 were freed during the truce. For families of remaining hostages, the truce’s collapse was a blow to hopes their loved ones could be the next out after days of seeing others freed. The Israeli army said Friday it had confirmed the deaths of four more hostages, bringing the total known dead to seven.

Qatar, which has served as a mediator along with Egypt, said negotiators were still trying for a deal to restore the cease-fire. Israel and Hamas traded blame for ending the truce.

A day earlier, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged Israeli officials to do more to protect Palestinian civilians as they seek to destroy Hamas. Blinken met Friday with Arab foreign ministers at global climate talks in Dubai.

It was not clear to what extent Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will heed the appeals of the United States, Israel’s most important ally.

Netanyahu’s office said Friday that Israel “is committed to achieving the goals of the war,” including releasing the hostages and eliminating Hamas, which has ruled Gaza since 2007.

In response to the U.S. calls, the Israeli military released an online map dividing the Gaza Strip into hundreds of numbered, haphazardly drawn parcels. It asked residents to learn the number of their location in case of an eventual evacuation. The map did not designate safe areas to evacuate to, and it was not clear how easily Palestinians could access it.

Hours into the renewed bombardment, Gaza’s Health Ministry said 178 people were killed and dozens wounded. Israel said it struck more than 200 Hamas targets.

Up until the truce began, more than 13,300 Palestinians were killed in Israel’s assault, roughly two-thirds of them women and minors, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, which does not differentiate between civilians and combatants.

The toll is likely much higher, as officials have only sporadically updated the count since Nov. 11. The ministry says thousands more people are feared dead under the rubble.

The war began after the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas and other militants, who killed about 1,200 people, mostly civilians, in southern Israel and took around 240 people captive. The New York Times reported Israel’s military was aware of Hamas’ plan to attack Israeli soil over a year before the devastating operation.

RETURN TO BATTLE

About an hour before the cease-fire was to expire early Friday, Israel said it intercepted a volley of rockets fired from Gaza. Minutes after it expired, the military announced a resumption of combat operations, and strikes soon began.

In leaflets dropped in southern Gaza, Israel urged people to leave homes east of Khan Younis, warning that the southern town was now a “dangerous battle zone.” Other leaflets warned residents of several neighborhoods in Gaza City in the north to move south.

Hundreds of thousands of people fled northern Gaza to Khan Younis and other parts of the south earlier in the war, part of an extraordinary mass exodus that has left three-quarters of the population displaced and facing widespread shortages of food, water and other supplies.

No trucks carrying aid entered Gaza from Egypt on Friday, Palestinians authorities at the Rafah crossing said, after an increased flow of supplies during the truce.

The International Rescue Committee, an aid group operating in Gaza, warned the return of fighting will “wipe out even the minimal relief” provided by the truce and “prove catastrophic for Palestinian civilians.”

In Washington, U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that Israel blocked trucks from crossing into Gaza Friday but that at the request of the U.S. government, it would allow some aid to enter. Kirby said the U.S. would continue to push to increase the assistance of aid into Gaza at least up to the level of goods that entered during the pause.

In Khan Younis, residents frantically searched for survivors in the rubble of a building hit by a strike. “We are women and children here. We have nothing,” said Fatima Nshasi, a relative of a family in the building, as women sobbed nearby. “We were going with life as usual, hoping the truce would be extended.”

Strikes also hit near Gaza City and in the central Gaza refugee camp of Maghazi, where rescuers clawed through the rubble of a large building. A foot stuck out of the tangle of concrete and wiring.

Israel says it is targeting Hamas operatives and blames civilian casualties on the militants, accusing them of operating in residential neighborhoods. Israel says 77 of its soldiers have been killed in the ground offensive in northern Gaza. It claims to have killed thousands of militants, without providing evidence.

Hamas said it fired volleys of rockets from Gaza toward Israeli cities. White smoke trails could be seen over the Israeli town of Sderot on the border with northern Gaza after Israel’s missile protection systems activated.

In Lebanon, Hezbollah said Friday its fighters fired on a group of Israeli soldiers along the border, its first attack since the truce went into effect.

Israel said a number of launches from Lebanon targeted military posts near the border, and others were directed toward the town of Kiryat Shmona but were intercepted. The military responded with artillery. One Hezbollah fighter and his mother were killed when their home was hit, security officials said.

HOSTAGES’ FAMILIES GRIEVE END OF TRUCE

The end of the truce hit families of remaining hostages especially hard.

Meirav Svirsky told Israel’s Channel 12 that a released hostage relayed a message to her from her 38-year-old brother, Itai, who is still held hostage, confirming he is alive. “His body is healthy but his mental state isn’t great,” she said. Meirav and Itai’s parents were killed on Oct. 7.

“They haven’t spoken about releasing the men, and they returned to fighting without exhausting the possibilities,” said Meirav, adding that she thinks “the state is responsible” for the fate of her brother. “From my perspective, every day when there is fighting in Gaza is putting him at risk.”

Netanyahu has been under intense pressure from hostages’ families to bring them home. But his far-right governing partners have also pushed him to continue the war until Hamas is destroyed.

Netanyahu said Hamas had violated the terms of the truce. “It has not met its obligation to release all of the women hostages today and has launched rockets at Israeli citizens,” he said in a statement.

Hamas blamed Israel, saying it had rejected all offers Hamas made to release more hostages and bodies of the dead. Senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan told The Associated Press in Beirut that Hamas rejected an Israeli list of 10 female hostages to release because they were soldiers seized at military posts.

Hamas was expected to set a higher price for releasing Israeli soldiers and male hostages, and negotiations for an extension grew tougher with few women and children hostages remaining in Gaza.

During the truce, which began Nov. 24, Hamas and other militants in Gaza released more than 100 hostages — 81 Israelis and 24 from other nationalities, mainly Thais. Israel freed 240 Palestinians from its prisons. Virtually all from both sides were women and children.

AP

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine has lost up to 300,000 soldiers – ex-Zelensky aide

Ukraine has lost up to 300,000 soldiers during its conflict with Russia, Aleksey Arestovich, a former aide to President Vladimir Zelensky, has claimed.

Arestovich made the revelation on Friday while speaking to journalist Yulia Latynina via video link. The former presidential aide was addressing the recent admission made by top Ukrainian MP David Arakhamia, who said the Istanbul talks between Moscow and Kiev were derailed by then-UK PM Boris Johnson, who urged Ukraine to “just continue fighting” instead of attempting to reach a deal with Russia.

“I was a member of the Istanbul negotiating team, but even I don’t know how it happened that we decided to break off the Istanbul [talks],”Arestovich stated.

The initiatives floated during the Istanbul talks were actually “very good,” he admitted, claiming that Ukraine’s neutrality and its non-alignment with NATO was a “red line” for Moscow.

Refusing to negotiate, however, has only resulted in heavy casualties, while its prospects to join NATO still remain dubious, he suggested.

“Where is NATO? Does it accept us or not? And will it accept us? ... Then the 200 thousand [Ukrainian servicemen] or whatever, 300 thousand, would still be alive,” the ex-aide said.

The remarks come as Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu revealed Moscow’s latest estimates on Kiev’s casualties. Speaking during a ministerial meeting on Friday, Shoigu claimed that the Ukrainian military has lost more than 125,000 troops and around 16,000 military hardware pieces since the beginning of its botched counteroffensive, which started in early June. The country’s efforts, as well as Western aid, have not yielded any tangible result, the minister added.

“The total mobilization in Ukraine, delivery of Western arms, and deployment of strategic reserves by the Ukrainian command have not changed the situation on the battlefield,” Shoigu explained. “Those desperate actions simply increased the losses of the Ukrainian armed forces.”

In recent weeks, top Ukrainian officials admitted the counteroffensive had failed to reach the desired outcome, and they seemed to shift blame for the failure on each other. Early in November, for instance, Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s top general, said the battlefield situation had reached a“stalemate,” with Kiev unlikely to achieve a breakthrough unless it received a wonder-weapon of sorts.

The assessment has been vehemently rejected by Zelensky, who insisted the counteroffensive was still making progress. In an interview with AP published on Friday, however, Zelensky finally admitted that it had failed, stating that he considers the fact that his country’s troops are not retreating at the moment a “satisfying” enough result.

** Zelensky accepts counter-offensve has failed

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky considers the fact that Kiev’s troops are currently not retreating as a good result in itself, according to an interview published by AP on Friday. He and his allies had previously criticized the country's military leadership for describing the situation a “stalemate.”

The new comments stand in stark contrast to bellicose predictions from Kiev ahead of its much hyped summer counter offensive, which included pledges to quickly retake Crimea.

Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s top general, used the term in early November, triggering a barrage of criticism from senior civilian officials and a rebuke from the president, who urged generals not to involve themselves in politics.

“Look, we are not backing down, I am satisfied,” he was quoted as saying, when asked about the outcome of the counteroffensive, which Kiev launched in early June. AP described the operation as being “powered by tens of billions of dollars in Western military aid, including heavy weaponry,” yet not forging “the expected breakthroughs.”

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu on Friday estimated Ukrainian losses in the last six months as surpassing 125,000 people and 16,000 pieces of heavy weaponry. Kiev’s forces have failed to change the battlefield situation, despite total mobilization, deployment of strategic reserves, and supplies of Western arms, he claimed.

The Ukrainian president blamed the shortage of Western aid for the lackluster result, but acknowledged that Kiev also has problems with manpower.

“There is not enough power to achieve the desired results faster. But this does not mean that we should give up,” he told the news agency.

Discussing whether the static front line put pressure on him to negotiate a peace deal with Russia, Zelensky said: “I don’t feel it yet.”

There is a legal prohibition in Ukraine against talks with Russia as long as President Vladimir Putin remains in office. Kiev and its Western backers have been pushing the so-called “Zelensky peace formula” as the only possible basis for a negotiated resolution. Moscow dismissed the proposal right after it was unveiled last year, calling it detached from reality.

Some security policy experts, including ex-NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen and ex-Supreme Allied Commander Europe James Stavridis, have suggested that the conflict should be frozen. Ukraine would then be granted a limited membership in the US-led military bloc, with mutual defense clauses applying only to territories under Kiev’s control, the idea goes.

However, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba rejected such a proposal when asked about it on the sidelines of the NATO-Ukraine Council meeting in Brussels on Wednesday. He also denied that there was a “stalemate” on the battlefield.

Zelensky appeared to justify his reassessment of the situation by the official arrival of winter on Friday, declaring a “new phase” in the fighting.

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine conducts new attack on Russian railway deep in Siberia - source

Ukraine's domestic spy agency has detonated explosives on a Russian railway line deep in Siberia, the second attack this week on military supply routes in the area, a Ukrainian source told Reuters on Friday.

The incidents appear to show Kyiv's readiness and ability to conduct sabotage attacks deep inside Russia and disrupt Russian logistics far from the front lines of Moscow's 21-month-old war in Ukraine.

The source, who declined to be identified, said the explosives were detonated as a freight train crossed the Chertov Bridge in Siberia's Buryatia region, which borders Mongolia and is thousands of kilometres from Ukraine.

The train had been using a backup railway line after an attack on a nearby tunnel a day earlier caused trains to be diverted, the source said.

Baza, a Russian media outlet with security sources, said diesel fuel tanks had ignited on a train using the backup route and that six goods wagons had caught fire. It reported no casualties and said the cause of the explosions was unknown.

The Ukrainian source, who said both operations were conducted by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), gave a similar assessment of the damage, citing Russian Telegram channels.

Reuters could not independently verify the accounts or assess whether the route is used for military supplies. Russian Railways declined to comment on the latest incident. The regional branch of Russia's Investigative Committee did not immediately respond to a written request for comment.

The Ukrainian source said on Thursday the SBU had detonated explosives in the earlier attack as a cargo train moved through the Severomuysky tunnel in Buryatia.

Russian investigators have concluded that train was blown up in a "terrorist act" by unidentified individuals, the Moscow-based Kommersant newspaper cited unnamed sources as saying.

Russian Railways, the state company that operates the vast rail network, said traffic had been diverted along a new route after the first attack, slightly increasing journey times but not interrupting transport.

The Ukrainian source said the second attack had anticipated the diversion of rail traffic and targeted the backup route at Chertov Bridge, which is on Russia's Baikal-Amur Mainline traversing Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East.

Russia's Trans-Siberian Railway is widely seen as more important for Russian freight transport than the Baikal-Amur Mainline.

A Russian industry source who declined to be identified said the backup route was functioning and being used by trains carrying freight on Friday afternoon.

** Ukrainian official predicts Kyiv airport soon to reopen

Ukraine has become progressively stronger over the past year and will soon be able to reopen Kyiv's international airport, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's chief of staff said on Friday.

Andriy Yermak made the pledge while addressing diplomats at Boryspil International Airport outside the capital.

"This return to the elements of peace is possible because Ukraine has grown stronger," Yermak told the diplomats in remarks posted on Zelenskiy's website.

"We are now capable of providing security for this site. Thanks to our defence forces and our friends, your countries. I am certain that the symbolic boarding cards that you were given when you came in today will soon turn into real ones."

Yermak's deputy, Andriy Sybiga, told the gathering that the airport was the first major site to be closed in Ukraine as Russian troops poured over the border on Feb. 24, 2022 and would be the first to be reopened once conditions permitted.

Yermak had invited the diplomats to discuss elements of Zelenskiy's 10-point peace plan, which calls for a withdrawal of Russian troops, recognition of Ukraine's 1991 borders and the establishment of a tribunal to examine war crimes.

A Vietnamese man who had been suffering from severe headaches and even loss of vision over the last five months recently learned that he had a pair of chopsticks stuck in his skull.

The unnamed man was recently admitted to the Cuba Friendship Hospital in the city of Dong Hoi, Vietnam’s Quang Binh province, after complaining of constant headaches, vision loss, and fluid discharge from his nose. When asked, the man revealed no possible cause for these symptoms, but a CT scan showed a tension pneumocephalus, the intracranial equivalent of a pneumothorax, as well as two foreign objects protruding from his nose into his brain. Upon thorough examination, the objects were identified as broken chopsticks.

Asked how the chopsticks might have found their way into his skull, the 35-year-old patient was initially as baffled as his doctors, but he later remembered an incident he had been involved in five months prior that could help explain his situation. While out drinking one night, the man got into a physical altercation and ended up in the emergency room. However, doctors there just patched him up and sent him on his way. Now, he assumes the other man stuck the chopsticks into his skull, through the nose, but he doesn’t remember actually happening.

After considering all the options, the medical team decided to perform endoscopic surgery through the nose, combined with microsurgery to close the patient’s cranial fistula and remove the pair of broken chopsticks. According to doctor Nguyen Van Man, Head of the Department of Neurosurgery at Cuba Friendship Hospital, choosing the optimal surgical method is critical to avoid leaving the patient with sequelae.

The 35-year-old man’s condition is stable and he has been discharged from the hospital.

Getting chopsticks stuck in your skull is apparently not as rare as you’d think. Just a couple of years ago, we wrote about a similar case in Taiwan where a woman ended up with chopsticks piercing her brain after an altercation with her sister.

Oddity Central

Emotional quotient, or EQ, is the ability to perceive, manage, control or communicate emotions.

People with a high EQ often enjoy better interactions not only with friends and family, but strangers, as well, says Matt Abrahams, a Stanford University lecturer in organizational behavior. Abrahams specializes in interpersonal communication.

"A lot of small talk is about empathy and being able to connect with the other person, and people with high EQ are able to do that better," he says.

Here are three things people with a high EQ do that make them better at small talk.

1. They validate the other person

They listen and then respond in a way that makes the other person feel understood. And they don't relate the conversation back to their own experience.

"They'll use paraphrasing or follow-up questions to demonstrate 'I heard you and I value what you said,'" Abrahams says.

If a person is talking about their recent vacation, someone with a high EQ will inquire about specifics or say "tell me more." Someone with a lower EQ might start talking about their own trips.

They'll use paraphrasing or follow-up questions to demonstrate "I heard you and I value what you said."

Matt Abrahams

Stanford University Lecturer

2. They mirror the other person

Mirroring refers to the unconscious act of imitating someone else's behavior in social interactions.

A person with high EQ might match the tone of voice or facial expression of the person they are having a conversation with.

3. They use open nonverbal language

Body language can also help convey that you are interested and listening.

"People who have a higher EQ are more open in their posture, they are nodding more," Abrahams says.

They also give more "backchannel" responses, like "uh-huh" and "I see."

"People with high EQ are better at understanding what's important to other people," Abrahams says.

During small talk with a stranger, this proves to be a huge asset.

CNBC

OPEC+ handed Nigeria a 2024 oil output target lower than Africa's largest oil producer had hoped for while lowering Angola's target, according to a statement from the group of oil-producing countries.

The move follows a meeting in June where OPEC+ agreed a complex deal that revised production targets for several members.

OPEC had tasked three consultancies - IHS, Rystad Energy and Wood Mackenzie - with verifying production figures for Nigeria, Angola and Congo.

Based on that it has given Nigeria a 2024 target of 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd), Angola one of 1.11 million bpd and Congo a target of 277,000 bpd, OPEC+ said in the statement.

In June it had been agreed, pending the assessments by the consultancies, that Angola could produce 1.28 million bpd and Nigeria 1.38 mln bpd and possibly as much as 1.58 million bpd.

Both have failed to meet previous quotas hurt by underinvestment and security issues.

Congo's target for 2024 is roughly in line with what was agreed in June.

NIGERIA 'OPTIMISTIC'

Disagreements over African output quotas was cited by sources as a reason OPEC+ postponed an in-person OPEC+ meeting sceheduled for Nov. 26 until Thursday.

Angola on Thursday was unhappy with its 2024 output target and does not plan to stick to it, Bloomberg reported.

Nigerian output has been in decline for years, but has picked up in recent months helped by more production offshore, which is less prone to security problems, two analysts told Reuters.

Still, Nigeria's own targets of hitting 2 million bpd in crude and condensate output next year are more optimistic than realistic, they said.

According to Rystad's calculations, under its base case scenario Nigeria can expect to see crude output rise to 1.5 million bpd next year assuming no further disruptions.

FGE analyst James Forbes said that the country's maximum crude output this year has been about 1.51 million bpd, so this is likely what they can achieve if all streams were to operate at maximum capacity.

"However, most of Nigeria's fields are mature and declining so it is unlikely this would happen," he said.

Reuters

For the first time since Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine on February 24th 2022, he looks as if he could win. Russia’s president has put his country on a war footing and strengthened his grip on power. He has procured military supplies abroad and is helping turn the global south against America. Crucially, he is undermining the conviction in the West that Ukraine can—and must—emerge from the war as a thriving European democracy.

The West could do a lot more to frustrate Putin. If it chose, it could deploy industrial and financial resources that dwarf Russia’s. However, fatalism, complacency and a shocking lack of strategic vision are getting in the way, especially in Europe. For its own sake as well as Ukraine’s, the West urgently needs to shake off its lethargy.

The reason a Putin victory is possible is that winning is about endurance rather than capturing territory. Neither army is in a position to drive out the other from the land they currently control. Ukraine’s counter-offensive has stalled. Russia is losing over 900 men a day in the battle to take Avdiivka, a city in the Donbas region. This is a defenders’ war, and it could last many years.

However, the battlefield shapes politics. Momentum affects morale. If Ukraine retreats, dissent in Kyiv will grow louder. So will voices in the West saying that sending Ukraine money and weapons is a waste. In 2024 at least, Russia will be in a stronger position to fight, because it will have more drones and artillery shells, because its army has developed successful electronic-warfare tactics against some Ukrainian weapons and because Putin will tolerate horrific casualties among his own men.

Increasing foreign support partly explains Russia’s edge on the battlefield. Putin has obtained drones from Iran and shells from North Korea. He has worked to convince much of the global south that it has no great stake in what happens to Ukraine. Turkey and Kazakhstan have become channels for goods that feed the Russian war machine. A Western scheme to limit Russian oil revenues by capping the price for its crude at $60 a barrel has failed because a parallel trading structure has emerged beyond the reach of the West. The price of Urals crude from Russia is $64, up nearly 10% since the start of 2023.

Putin is also winning because he has strengthened his position at home. He now tells Russians, absurdly, that they are locked in a struggle for survival against the West. Ordinary Russians may not like the war, but they have become used to it. The elite have tightened their grip on the economy and are making plenty of money. Putin can afford to pay a lifetime’s wages to the families of those who fight and die.

Faced with all this, no wonder the mood in Kyiv is darker. Politics has returned, as people jostle for influence. Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, and Valery Zaluzhny, its most senior general, have fallen out. Internal polling suggests that corruption scandals and worries about Ukraine’s future have dented Zelensky’s standing with voters.

Western governments insist they are as committed to Ukraine as ever. But polls around the world suggest that many doubt it. In America the Biden administration is struggling to make Congress release funding worth over $60bn. Next year’s election campaign will soon get in the way. If Donald Trump is elected president, having promised peace in short order, America could suddenly stop supplying weapons altogether.

Europe should be preparing for that dire possibility—and for American help to slow, whoever is in the White House. Instead, European leaders are carrying on as if munificent Joe Biden will always be in charge. The European Union has promised Ukraine €50bn ($56bn), but the money is being held up by Hungary and, possibly, a budgetary mess in Germany. In December the EU should signal that it is ready to start talks for Ukraine’s membership. But many believe that the process will be intentionally strung out because enlargement is hard and threatens vested interests. Italy’s prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, was recorded (during a prank call) saying that Europe is weary. You would think a Trump presidency would galvanise support for Ukraine, as Europe took responsibility for its own defence. One leader privately predicts that support will in fact fragment.

That would be a disaster. By 2025 the strain of running a war may start to catch up with Putin. Russians may increasingly resent the forced mobilisations, inflation and diversion of social spending to the army. Yet simply hoping that his regime collapses makes no sense. He could remain in power for years and if he does, he will threaten war because that is his excuse for domestic repression and his own people’s suffering. He has blighted his country’s prospects by isolating it from Europe and driving its most enterprising people into exile. Without war, the hollowness of his rule would be on full display.

Europe must, therefore, plan for Putin as the main long-term threat to its security. Russia will rearm. It will have combat experience. Planning for Europe’s defence should be designed to prevent Putin from sensing weakness on its flank—especially if he doubts a President Trump’s willingness to fight should a NATO country be attacked.

The best way to deter Putin would be for Europe to demonstrate its resolve by showing right now that it is fully committed to a thriving, democratic, westward-looking Ukraine. Weapons matter, especially air defences and long-range missiles to strike at Russian supply lines, which is why it is crucial for America to approve the latest tranche of aid. Because arsenals are already depleted, more work needs to go into increasing the capacity of Western arms-makers. Sanctions could be targeted more effectively to split the regime from the elite.

Political action in Europe is essential, too (see Charlemagne). Putin will attack Ukraine’s cities and subvert its society to sabotage the country’s transformation into a Western democracy. In response Europe should be redoubling its efforts to ensure that Ukraine progresses, with the promise of money and EU accession. European leaders have not acknowledged the size of the task—indeed, too many seem to shrink from it. That is folly. They should heed Leon Trotsky: they may not be interested in war, but war is interested in them.