Nigeria’s three main political parties – the All Progressives Congress (APC), the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and the Labour Party (LP) – are in turmoil. They have been infested by little foxes that threaten to damage and, potentially, destroy them.

I know that discipline is not a virtue of political parties in a presidential system. In Nigeria’s own version, however, indiscipline governs everything. 

Whether the political parties are winning or losing – of course, it is worse when they’re losing – politicians never forget that the party is simply a convenient tool, serviceable only when it can help them get to power, but certainly dispensable immediately afterwards.

See what is happening in the PDP, the party which lost its way after 16 years in power. The same forces led by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar that snatched defeat, not once, from the jaws of victory, are still determined to bury what is left of the sick party alive.

To be fair, Abubakar has paid his dues. He has done so with the generosity of a rolling stone, gathering moss from PDP to the Action Congress of Nigeria (AC), then to n-PDP, and from there to APC, and back again to PDP. At each point, never failing to leave a mark in pursuit of the prophecy of a marabout about 26 years ago that he would one day become Nigeria’s president.

Ambition, what price?

Ambition is not a crime. For a man of Abubakar’s political accomplishments, however, not knowing when to stop is a bad thing. He not only abandoned the PDP for years, he worked against it openly by running against the party as the AC presidential candidate in 2007. It was bad enough for him to abandon the PDP and return to it to fight for a presidential ticket at a most ill-advised and inauspicious time.

But what is worse was for him to take a front-row seat at the party’s National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting in Abuja last week, plotting if not to run again as president, then to decide who runs the party. While this was happening, one of the party’s altar boys, Emeka Ihedioha, was resigning with a heavy heart from the PDP, perhaps casting one eye at his grandfather, Abubakar, the remaining dinosaur among the founding fathers present at the Abuja NEC meeting.

It was one meeting Abubakar should not have attended – or if it was inevitable, he should have come at least shedding crocodile tears in remorse for his role in how the party snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in the 2023 general elections. But he came, as we say, with his full chest.

Accuser and accused 

I looked at the press photos from the event twice to believe he was actually the one sitting there in the front row at the NEC meeting. As if that was not heartbreaking enough, some folks – governors/landlords of the party –lined up behind him, asking not for him to account, but that the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, NyesomWike, who sustained the party while Abubakar was in exile, should be disciplined for “anti-party activities.”

Wike has his problems, but they do not include political prostitution. Or trashing the party’s constitution (as Abubakar did) which clearly provided that it was not the North’s turn to field a presidential candidate. When will the PDP learn?

Humpty Dumpty

I’m told that after separate meetings with Abubakar and Wike by the PDP governors (four of whom appear to be leaning towards Abubakar, seven for Wike and two undecided) the party is considering setting up a reconciliation committee headed by former Senate President Bukola Saraki, to mend Humpty Dumpty.

I wish Saraki luck in his task of doing what all the king’s horses and all the king’s men have failed to do. But as surely as six follows seven, the record of all known attempts to settle intra-party conflicts by indulging the hubris of the instigator have ended in futility. There’s not much time left before the party’s congresses in June and all the drama at the Abuja NEC was about control of the party ahead of that congress. 

With Umar Damagum still in the chair as acting Chairman – the last thing that Abubakar wanted before the NEC meeting – the former vice president’s grip is more tenuous than it ever was and his relevance in decline.

Proxy wars 

The PDP can, however, take comfort that it’s not alone in keeping the foxes out of its garden. Even the ruling APC and Labour are having torrid times of their own. APC Chairman, Abdullahi Ganduje, has been fending off petitions and attacks from his state, Kano, by persons who not only want him out, but also want him tried on charges ranging from bribery to diversion of funds, misappropriation and criminal breach of trust.

What is happening in Kano is a continuation by other means of the long-running war between NNPP leader, Rabiu Kwankwaso, and his former deputy-turned-adversary, Ganduje. Of course, APC members in Ganduje’s Kano ward are being used against him in this proxy war, but his real foe is Kwankwaso.

There has been talk of party members in the North Central eyeing Ganduje’s chair. But party insiders insist that the main issues remain the potential return of Kwankwaso to the APC and who between him and Ganduje has more strategic value for 2027. 

Musical chairs 

Party chairmanship is perhaps the ficklest of positions. Ganduje is the sixth APC chairman in 10 years and three national election cycles, while its older cousin, the PDP, has produced 18 in 25 years, with only two – Barnabas Gemade and Ahmadu Ali – completing their tenure. Even Labour, just one-year-old, cannot keep one chairman safe.

Ganduje knows he is on a hot seat, held only at the pleasure of the president, as we have seen from the days of President Olusegun Obasanjo. Changing Ganduje is hardly President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s problem. His headache is whether with the North’s growing unease about his administration, he can find someone else to replace Ganduje that he can trust. 

Tinubu can also hardly ignore the anti-Nasir El-Rufai stirrings in Kaduna, which not a few have suggested may have been instigated by Abuja. There’s a double imperative for Tinubu first to secure Kano, the North West’s vote bank; and also, to keep El-Rufai, an influential politician in the region, on a leash. The jury is out on who, between Kwankwaso and Ganduje, would be the better battering ram.

The leper and the milk 

The party chairman is like a leper. He may not be able to drink the milk that nourishes his appointor’s position, but he sure can spill it. And the perfect fit, often, is someone with something around their neck, which if they ever forget, can be used to constantly remind them of their vulnerability. Since Kwankwaso and Ganduje cannot possibly sit in a room without a referee in protective gear, a middle ground is out of the question. Tinubu will have to choose who to work with between the two. 

While he is at it, party administration will continue to drift and Ganduje’s authority will continue to ebb. 

Labour in vain 

But again, this is not significantly different from what is happening in Labour, where two factions of the party – one headed by Julius Abure and the other by Lamidi Apapa – have brought the party to its knees, raising speculations of the possible exit of the party’s presidential candidate, Peter Obi.

With the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) taking a stand against Abure and splitting the party’s executive right down the middle, it won’t be long before Obi decides whether he can save this ship or risk drowning with it.

The moment of decision for the parties may seem far off, if you count three years until the next general elections. But in politics it is not the years before the next election that count; it is the events that shape those years. And those events are lining up at a speed that suggests that if the campaign for 2027 has not started already, it might be upon us sooner than later.

** Ishiekwene is Editor-In-Chief of LEADERSHIP

Key Takeaways

• Small businesses could significantly improve their odds by starting the right business at the right time and taking the right steps.
• Don't rush the following steps. They set the foundation for beating the odds and growing a great business.

There is no such thing as the perfect time to start a business. I know. Growing up in a family business, I always thought I would love to own my own business, but I was waiting for the perfect time. Then, I got fired from my job in broadcasting and had to decide what to do. Was I ready to take on being a business owner? Did I have enough experience? Where would the start-up funding come from? Did I want to own one, or was I just enamored with the American dream of being a business owner?

The hard truth is that most people have no business starting a business because they have unrealistic expectations and have not done the hard work to ensure its success. The statistics bear that out. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "20% of new businesses fail during the first two years, 45% during the first five years, and 65% during the first ten years."

I have been in business for more than 35 years, which puts me in the category of only 25% of the companies that make it 15 years or more. Am I clever or lucky? Or a little of both? I believe that small businesses could significantly improve their odds by starting the right business at the right time and taking the right steps.

The right business

Ideally, there are two things to consider. First, the type of business. The right business for one person is very different than the right business for another. In my case, broadcasting experience was a great foundation for starting a media production company. I had worked for several television stations in a variety of roles, so I understood both the production aspects, what might be compared to operations in other businesses, and the financial considerations.

When you start a business in an industry where you know you have an edge, you see the opportunities and the pitfalls. You can become a recognized leader faster than someone who is just getting started. You also may have recognition or awards that give you instant credibility. In my case, I have won over thirty broadcast awards, indicating that I was a seasoned professional.

One side note: I know people who have been very successful in starting businesses without a specific background in the product or service. These are, however, well-educated businesspeople who can successfully lead an operation and have found others with the skills and understanding of the industry. Being a franchisee is another way to get started because the franchise owner has put the products, systems and training in place to jumpstart ownership.

The second thing to consider is the business owner's passion and commitment level. Even knowledgeable and prepared individuals must work hard during the first few years to set the foundation. Business owners know that means missing family events, long hours, and plowing money back into the operation instead of putting it in their pockets. If you have a passion for business, it is easy to stick it out. If you don't, resentment builds, and the business suffers.

The right time

You might think that timing is about the age at which you start a business. It is not. Entrepreneurs start businesses at all ages. Over the years, we have seen many young people and their parents on Shark Tank trying to find an investor for their businesses. One might argue that the business is really the parent's idea, but not always.

At the other end of the scale, there are encore entrepreneurs. These are successful business owners who sold their businesses and could not sit still or who left corporate America and struck out on their own late in life. Of course, many of those who are starting businesses are millennials and Gen Zers. The right time is at any age.

What's more important is whether or not the product or service is ready for the market and in demand. Media production as an industry has been consistently in demand since I started but was even more popular during and after the pandemic as people needed to communicate but did not want to travel or meet in person. Many side hustles have soared in popularity, and there is still room for new entities. But others have crowded fields. It's important to look at the competition and see how your offer measures up. Is it different, a better value, or more convenient?

One last thing to consider: Sometimes, you are so far ahead of the market that you need to do more than just sell; you need to educate and create demand. Think about it. Things like computers, meatless burgers and even kitty litter changed or created an entirely new industry. Timing here is tricky. Get in too early, and it takes huge resources to get noticed. Too late, and you can't catch up.

The right steps

Benjamin Franklin said it best, "If you fail to plan, you plan to fail." To be successful, you need to take the right planning steps. You need to do the tedious work of creating a business plan. This is the roadmap for how to start, operate and grow the business. There are lots of different templates and resources to create a plan, whether you are starting a traditional business or a lean start-up. Just pick one that meets your needs. You also must find and surround yourself with a great team of advisors, including a business attorney, financial professional, insurance and risk management team and more.

Don't rush these steps. They set the foundation for beating the odds and growing a great business.

Entrepreneur

Some disgruntled politicians and citizens often wish that the army takes over after shambolic elections or economic mismanagement. Army coups swept out post independence democracies across Africa, and ruled for decades until it became obvious that they had no business with politics and governance. Since returning to democracy, we have been in search of the right political systems and economic ideologies to bring prosperity to our people, but the current political class has no solutions of how to attain the prosperity of the industrialized world.

George Washington, the largest slave owner became a soldier to protect the local slave economy from British colonialists, while Alexander Hamilton, a soldier, is the acknowledged father of USA big business. Following the mid 1800s railroad boom, the iron merchants turned to building skyscrapers with the surplus iron, before finally using it to build armoured plates for the Navy and armoured vehicles. The First World War caused widespread public discontent that the USA had been dragged into what was essentially a European Colonial War, and led to the 1934 Gerald Nye Senate Committee Hearings that showed that the Navy/Army were the main salesmen of arms makers that dragged the USA into war to sell their munitions.

In what is known as Peace Dividends, the production plants of war goods incorporated producing consumer goods, producing consumer cars alongside armoured vehicles, radios with radar, etc, which brought a long period of prosperity and employment by what was aptly named the Industrial Military complex.

Not only in USA has the military been at the economic foundation of nations, as the British Empire was built on the efficiency of turning slave ships into battleships. This was known as Mercantilism whereby nations used their army to back their businessmen to takeover natural and human resources.

In actual fact, the prosperity of Eurasian empires dating back to Babylon was based on war economics.

At the end of the 350 year slave based economy came colonization that led to the First World War, and the start of the Industrial military complex of turning war goods into consumer goods, followed by the Second World War when production facilities of fighter jets were adapted for passenger jets and air travel, before the Cold War and its military intelligence became computer technology and the internet, which is the current economic growth driver.

California, currently the world's fifth largest economy, was a desert that first attracted people during the short-lived 1848 Gold Rush, whose fortunes were turned around by the airborne military industrial complex. Its clear skies and huge expanse of land was conducive to testing of airplanes and siting of huge factories that employed millions of people. Its Peace Dividend was Hollywood. With the advent of computer technology, the military industrial complex built the Silicon Valley which also worked with Hollywood, its Chief marketer. In time, California became the most populous and richest USA state with a GDP of nearly $4 trillion. Texas also became second richest due to its abundant oil and the relocation of the military industrial complex facilities there.

The most pronounced use of the army to build an industrial military complex is the Peoples Liberation Army, which built the Chinese railways that stimulated industrialization to liberate their people from poverty. So did South Korea's General Park Chung Hee. Unfortunately unlike other races, African national armies evolved from slave/colonial armies used to suppress their peoples, and after independence used to protect neocolonial interests. Nigeria's army originated from the 1863 Lieutenant John Hawley Glover's Constabulary Force, largely composed of freed Hausa slaves, primarily established to protect the Royal Niger Company and push British colonialism. After the defeat of Benin Empire, it was consolidated in 1900 into the Royal West African Frontier Force (RWAFF), before finally becoming the Nigerian Army in 1956. Despite becoming national armies in Nigeria and Ghana, senior military were set up to protect Western neocolonial interests and sometimes overthrow their national democratic governments.

Due to their misconceptions, the armies never saw themselves as the liberators of their peoples, especially by building their own industrial military complexes that would not only make them truly independent but provide employment and prosperity. Initially the Nigerian army bought its arms from about 13 different nations.

However, in 1964 the Nigerian army set up the Defense Industries Corporation of Nigeria, which became more functional with the 1967 Civil War, assembling other nations weaponry like AK 47. Over time, it produced more weapons and even started building furniture for the civilian populations. So one wonders that if it knew that it could make profit from consumer sales, why not develop the whole industrial military complex?

Coloniality of knowledge robs us of the philosophical foundations of what the army and industrial complex is about.

Olusegun Obasanjo, then military leader, probably the most pro-development head of state, went about Operation Feed the Nation, instead of Operation Industrialize the Nation, which should have been done through the army. As a politician, he established Transcorp as a massive investment vehicle to build an industrial complex, but it takes more than investment, and requires political will which civilians can't summon.

Part of the military’s mandate is simply to lay economic foundations, and the first step had been taken with the establishment of DICON. Since defense industries needs consumer industries to share overheads, the army should present plans of how to lay iron rails across Nigeria in record time like the Peoples Liberation Army. Unless we don't want our army to be self sufficient would politicians obstruct them.

At present, only China can build railways and unfortunately our political class is tied to the West that would sabotage Chinese involvement. Left to the politicians, we will wait another generation through nepotistic contracts. The Army is the most disciplined and technically skilled institution that can carry out the task of laying our railway foundations for industrialization, which it will then protect from internal and external saboteurs with weapons that it makes.

The extant two North-South railways will become a grid by laying three East-West railways - Lagos-Calabar, Ilorin-Yola and Sokoto-Maiduguri in three years. Government and public institutions are not good managers of business, so once the infrastructure are built it must be privatized, and either the army builds the rest to fill up the 9 box grid or the privatized companies and state governments can build the feeder routes to every corner. Railways provide the highest return on investment of USA industries at 50.93%, and could bring close to $100b annually to Nigeria, in addition to the fact that it has the highest income and employment multiplier effects across the economy. For every Naira or person employed in the railway it stimulates N20 and 20 new jobs in agriculture, car manufacturing and other heavy manufacturing, logistics, freighting and other new sectors. Being the largest contraption of Iron and Chemicals, it will multiply tenfold the combined contribution of a mere 1.6% that iron and steel, plastic and rubber, and electrical and electronics currently make to the economy.

Since President Bola Tinubu's hands are tied by the West from doing business with China, especially on economic liberating infrastructure, the army should leave chasing terrorists and bandits to the politicians that should restructure, decentralize and specialize the police force, and instead focus on building an industrial military complex through Defense Industries Corporation (DICON) with plan for 10,000 kilometers of railways to employ millions and liberate us from poverty.

** Justice Faloye, President ASHE Foundation, Afenifere Deputy Publicity Secretary, is an Economist and author of The Blackworld Evolution to Revolution.

German authorities announced on Wednesday the apprehension of 11 suspected members of a Nigerian mafia faction linked to a widespread dating scam.

The group, known as the Black Axe gang, was found to be engaged in various criminal activities internationally, with a focus on romance scams and money laundering in Germany, according to Bavarian police.

Describing the dating scam as a "modern form of marriage fraud," law enforcement officials revealed that the fraudsters utilized false identities to feign intentions of marriage and subsequently extorted money from their victims under false pretenses.

The funds obtained were then funneled back to Nigeria through financial intermediaries, employing a commodity-based money laundering scheme that involved purchasing and sending goods to Nigeria, often under the guise of charitable contributions.

Bavarian authorities received around 450 reports of romance scams in 2023 alone, resulting in damages amounting to 5.3 million euros ($5.7 million).

The arrested suspects, all Nigerian nationals aged between 29 and 53, were detained in nationwide raids on Tuesday, during which law enforcement officers raided 19 properties, including homes and asylum shelters.

According to police statements, the Black Axe gang operated under strict hierarchical structures with leadership based in Nigeria, exerting significant influence over politics and public administrations in the country. Their global operations spanned human trafficking, fraud, money laundering, prostitution, and drug trafficking.

The gang operated under the guise of the Neo Black Movement of Africa, presenting itself as a charitable organization to conceal its criminal activities.

This crackdown on the Black Axe gang marks the first of its kind in Germany, signaling a significant effort by law enforcement to combat organized crime networks operating within the country's borders.

On Wednesday, the naira experienced a depreciation to N1,300 per dollar in the parallel section of the foreign exchange (FX) market, marking a 3.17 percent decline from the N1,260 recorded on April 22.

Currency traders, operating as bureau de change (BDC) operators, set the buying rate at N1,260 and the selling price at N1,300, maintaining a profit margin of N40.

Meanwhile, at the official window, the naira dropped to N1,308.52 against the dollar, reflecting a 0.64 percent decrease from the N1,300.15 traded on April 23.

According to data from the FMDQ Exchange, the naira reached a low of N1,367 and a high of N1,098. Despite this, the official window rate remains N8.52 lower than that of the parallel market.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) recently adjusted the FX rate for dollar allocations to BDC operators, selling $10,000 at the rate of N1,021/$ to each BDC. This move follows previous adjustments, including the sale of FX at N1,101/$ on April 8, compared to N1,251 offered to parallel market operators on March 25 and N1,301 announced on February 27.

In response to a recent runway incident involving Dana Air, the Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA) has suspended the airline's Air Operators Certificate (AOC).

The incident occurred as a Dana Air plane, arriving from Abuja, veered off the runway at Lagos airport and into a nearby field.

Fortunately, all 83 passengers and crew members disembarked safely, prompting emergency responders and regulatory agencies to swiftly initiate an investigation into the cause of the incident.

Pending the outcome of the investigation led by the Nigerian Safety and Investigation Bureau, the NCAA has announced a thorough audit of Dana Air's operations. Acting Director Chris Najomo, in a letter, outlined the suspension of Dana Air's AOC, effective April 24, 2024, in accordance with the provisions of the Civil Aviation Act 2022.

This suspension facilitates a comprehensive safety and economic audit as mandated by regulations. The safety audit will entail an examination of Dana Air's organization, procedures, personnel, and aircraft, while the economic audit will assess the airline's financial stability to ensure continued safe flight operations.

The NCAA's proactive stance underscores its unwavering dedication to aviation safety and regulatory adherence, with a primary focus on passenger well-being and the preservation of industry standards.

The Kaduna State House of Assembly has requested the Ministry of Finance, Kaduna State to submit comprehensive details of all financial transactions during the tenure of former Governor Nasir El-Rufai, who governed the state from 2015 to 2023.

The demand comes in connection with an ongoing investigation into the finances, loans, and projects awarded under El-Rufai's two-term administration.

Governor Uba Sani, El-Rufai's successor, alleged that he inherited a significant debt burden, which has impacted the state's ability to pay workers' salaries.

Following Sani's allegations, the State Assembly agreed to probe El-Rufai's administration, leading to the inauguration of a fact-finding committee.

The Assembly's Clerk, Sakinatu Idris, wrote to the Finance Commissioner, requesting memorandum and documents related to financial transactions spanning from May 2015 to May 2023.

The letter directed the ministry to provide details to the fact-finding committee, including total loans approved by the Kaduna State House of Assembly, accounts into which loans were lodged and drawn, state executive council minutes, payments to contractors, salary reports, Kaduna State Development and Investment Promotion Agency (KADRIS) reports, modalities for contract payments, sales of government properties, and related documents.

The Ministry of Finance has been instructed to submit thirty copies of the requested documents to the Clerk's office by April 25, 2024, to facilitate the investigation.

ISRAEL’S REPORTS

IDF: On Tuesday, a number of launches were identified crossing from Lebanese territory that fell in open areas in the area of Shomera.

In response, an IAF aircraft struck the launcher in the Tayr Harfa area, from which the launches were fired. Additionally, a Hezbollah military compound from which terrorists were operating in the area was also struck.

Overnight, IAF fighter jets struck terror infrastructure in the area of Markaba, a military compound in the Ayta ash Shab area and a Hezbollah observation post in the area of Marwahin.

Furthermore, IDF artillery opened fire to remove a threat in the areas of Chihine and Kfarchouba.

Attached is a video of the strikes: https://bit.ly/4bapi6q

** IDF: The IDF precisely struck Hamas launchers located in a humanitarian zone in southern Gaza and continues to operate in the central Gaza corridor

Overnight, following intelligence reports and operational identification, IAF fighter jets targted two Hamas launch posts in southern Gaza. The launch posts were loaded with rockets and were struck before any launches were fired toward Israel. The strike was conducted after taking precautions to mitigate harm to civilians.

The IDF continues to operate in the central Gaza corridor and over the past day, eliminated terrorists and destroyed terror infrastructure.

In one of the strikes, terrorists were identified in proximity to the troops and were eliminated by IDF tank fire.

As part of the activity, fighter jets struck military targets.

Throughout the past day, IAF fighter jets and aircraft struck over 50 targets. Furthermore, an IAF aircraft struck an operational tunnel shaft and additional terror infrastructure in the central Gaza Strip.

Attached are aerial photos of the launchers located in the humanitarian area: https://IDFANC.activetrail.biz/ANC24042024156633399784151

Attached is a video of IDF strikes in the Gaza Strip: https://bit.ly/44kNQrq

Attached are photos of IDF operational activity in the Gaza Strip: https://IDFANC.activetrail.biz/ANC24042024546323939

** IDF: The IDF struck dozens of terror targets in southern Lebanon

A short while ago, IDF fighter jets and artillery struck approximately 40 Hezbollah terror targets in the area of Ayta ash Shab in southern Lebanon, including storage facilities, weaponry, terror infrastructures, and additional targets used by the Hezbollah terrorist organization in the area.

The Hezbollah terrorist organization extensively uses the area of Ayta ash Shab for terrorist purposes and has established dozens of terror means and infrastructures in the area in order to attack Israeli civilians and soldiers within the state of Israel.

Attached is a video of the strikes: https://bit.ly/4bbDHzd

HAMAS’ REPORTS

In the name of God, the most gracious, the most merciful

Press Statement

While we appreciate all the Arab countries, which we consider incubators of our people and supportive of our cause, we deny what was published by the Lebanese newspaper Al-Liwaa yesterday, Tuesday, April 23, 2024, about the movement’s request to move to Syria, as the movement did not request that from sister Syria or from anyone else.

Jihad Taha

Spokesman for the Islamic Resistance Movement Hamas

Al-Arya'a: Shawwal 15, 1445 AH

Corresponding to: April 24, 2024 AD

** Violent clashes between the resistance and the occupation army north of Nuseirat, and an occupation helicopter opened fire in the vicinity of the place.

** Hezbollah:

In support of our steadfast Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip and in support of their brave and honorable resistance, and as part of the response to the Israeli enemy’s attacks on the steadfast southern villages and civilian homes, specifically the horrific massacre in Hanin, we targeted the “Shomera” settlement, the occupied Lebanese town of Tarbikha, with dozens of Katyusha rockets.

** Hezbollah: In support of our steadfast Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip and in support of their brave and honorable resistance, and as part of the response to the Israeli attacks on the steadfast southern villages and civilian homes, specifically the massacre in Hanin, our fighters targeted a building in which enemy soldiers were present in the “Avivim” settlement with weapons. The occasion left them dead and wounded. ‏

** Hezbollah: At 4:40 pm on Wednesday, April 24, 2024, the Mujahideen of the Islamic Resistance targeted the Ruwaisat Al-Alam site in the occupied Lebanese hills of Kafr Shuba with missile weapons and hit it directly.

** Al-Aqsa Brigades: Our fighters were able to control two Zionist drones while they were carrying out intelligence missions in the skies of Khan Yunis.

#Al-Aqsa Flood

Israel Defense Forces/Hamas Brigade al-Qassam

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

The US quietly shipped long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine

The United States in recent weeks secretly shipped long-range missiles to Ukraine for use in its battle to fight off Russian invaders, and Ukraine has now used them twice, a U.S. official said on Wednesday.

The missiles were contained in a $300 million military aid package for Ukraine that U.S. President Joe Biden approved on March 12, said the U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity. The official would not say how many of the missiles were sent.

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan, at a briefing for reporters, confirmed that a "significant number" of the missiles had been sent to Ukraine and said "we will send more."

He said Ukraine has committed to only use the weapons inside Ukraine, not in Russia.

Some of the missiles were contained in a $1 billion weapons package for Ukraine that President Joe Biden approved on Wednesday, Sullivan said.

The missiles were used for the first time in the early hours of April 17, launched against a Russian airfield in Crimea that was about 165 km (103 miles) from the Ukrainian front lines, the official said.

The official said Ukraine used the weapon a second time overnight against Russian forces in southeastern Ukraine.

Whether to send the Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) with a range up to 300 km was a subject of debate within the Biden administration for months. Mid-range ATACMS were supplied last September.

The Pentagon initially opposed the long-range missile deployment, fearing the loss of the missiles from the American stockpile would hurt U.S. military readiness. There were also concerns that Ukraine would use them to attack targets deep inside Russia.

Russia's use of North Korean-supplied long-range ballistic missiles against Ukraine in December and January, despite U.S. public and private warnings not to do so, led to a change in heart, the U.S. official said.

Also a factor in U.S. decision-making was Russia's targeting of Ukraine's critical infrastructure, the official said.

"We warned Russia about those things," the official said. "They renewed their targeting."

In late January the U.S. military found a way to satisfy their concerns about military readiness, which enabled the administration to move forward. They began acquiring new missiles coming off the Lockheed-Martin production line.

Biden met with his national security team in mid-February and agreed to accept the unanimous recommendation of his advisers to send the missiles to Ukraine. Involved in the discussion were national security adviser Jake Sullivan, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman C.Q. Brown.

The challenge at that point was to figure out how to pay for the missiles. The United States had exhausted all of its funding options and congressional gridlock stymied further aid.

An opportunity arose in March, when several Pentagon contracts came in under bid. Biden was able to use the difference to send $300 million in assistance to Ukraine.

Biden told his team to include the long-range ATACMS in this funding package, but to do so secretly in order to maintain operational security and the element of surprise for Ukraine, the official said.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Russian troops wipe out Ukrainian UAV production workshop over past day

Russian troops destroyed an UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) production workshop of the Ukrainian army over the past day in the special military operation in Ukraine, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported on Wednesday.

"Operational/tactical aircraft, missile troops and artillery of the Russian groups of forces destroyed a P-18 panoramic view radar station, an UAV production workshop and a fuel storage facility of the Ukrainian army and struck enemy manpower and military hardware in 117 areas," the ministry said in a statement.

Ukraine’s army suffers 470 casualties in Donetsk area over past day

The Ukrainian army lost roughly 470 troops in battles with Russian forces in the Donetsk area over the past day, the ministry reported.

"The enemy’s losses amounted to 470 personnel, an armored combat vehicle and nine motor vehicles. In counterbattery fire, Russian troops destroyed two 155mm M777 howitzers and a 105mm M119 artillery gun of US manufacture, two 152mm Msta-B howitzers, a 152mm D-20 howitzer, a 122mm Gvozdika motorized artillery system and a BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launcher," the ministry said.

In addition, Russian troops wiped out three field ammunition depots and two Nota electronic warfare stations of the Ukrainian army, it specified.

Reuters/RT

As Kyiv's forces struggle, fewer than half of Ukrainians believe the country could return to its pre-2014 borders.

Kyiv, Ukraine – Natalya Brovko doesn’t believe that Ukraine will be whole again.

In recent months, Ukrainian forces have been slowly retreating in the eastern Donbas region amid excruciating losses, and top brass warn that the front line may burst open because of dire shortages of ammunition and manpower.

“With all these retreats, I don’t see how we can even get back what we lost,” the 37-year-old mother of two told Al Jazeera.

“I was scared two years ago and now I am scared again,” she said, remembering when Russian forces tried to seize Kyiv and occupied sizeable chunks of four regions in Ukraine’s east and south.

For the first time since the war began in February 2022, fewer than half – 45 percent – of Ukrainians believe that their nation could return to its borders before the 2014 annexation of Crimea, according to a survey by Rating, an independent pollster, released in early April.

A year ago, the figure was 74 percent, Rating said.

At the time, Ukraine was riding high on the success of its counteroffensive in the fall of 2022, when daring manoeuvring forced Russian forces to hastily retreat from most of the northeastern Kharkiv region.

Months earlier, Moscow withdrew its forces from around Kyiv and all of northern Ukraine, and many Ukrainians and observers were confident that Ukrainian forces would swiftly reach the Sea of Azov to bisect Russia’s land bridge between Donbas, where Moscow-backed separatists carved out one of two “People’s republics” in 2014, and Crimea.

But the counteroffensive’s failure filled Ukrainians with pessimism – especially in Russian-occupied areas.

“No one is coming to the rescue, there’s no way we can become part of Ukraine again,” Halyna, who lives in the town of Henichesk in the southern region of Kherson that has been occupied since March 2022, told Al Jazeera.

The perspective of returning Crimea and the Donbas after a decade of separation seems especially impossible – only seven percent of those polled believe in the reconquest.

The pessimism is a combination of several factors.

After more than two years of the conflict, tens of thousands of Ukrainian servicemen have been killed or wounded, millions of civilians fled abroad or to safer areas, and the economy nosedived.

And while Russia ups the ante on the front lines and with almost daily shelling of civilian areas, the public is divided about Ukraine’s new mobilisation law adopted earlier this month, after months of revisions and hundreds of amendments.

There are also concerns about the stability of Western financial and military aid. While new United States weapons could be on the way to Ukraine soon, it took US officials months to finally pass an aid package.

“With all of this in the background, the poll results are quite logical,” Kyiv-based analyst Igar Tyshkevich told Al Jazeera. “But it doesn’t mean they would remain at this level.”

Moscow strives to create an “instability zone” by striking Ukrainian energy infrastructure as blackouts and power shortages affect the economy and raise prices, he said.

Meanwhile, wider, indiscriminate drone and missile attacks on large cities such as Kharkiv in the east and Odesa in the south trigger the flight of civilians to more protected areas in central and western Ukraine.

Russia’s aim is to “create a situation when domestic political pressure grows,” Tyshkevich said.

But some people in border areas are holding up.

“It looks like everyone has gotten used to daily shelling,” said Mykola Akhbash, a police officer in the eastern town of Pokrovsk, that stands just 60km (37 miles) from occupied Avdiivka.

Although some civilians are leaving, “there’s no massive exodus”, he told Al Jazeera.

“Usually, more massive departures begin after a missile hits residential areas. But that doesn’t happen often,” he said. “Although we expect more frequent shelling.”

US ‘double standard?’

Russia has switched to pinpointed strikes on energy infrastructure deep within Ukraine, while its elite forces are being massed to move towards the strategic town of Chasiv Yar in the east.

It is also recalling former mercenaries with the Wagner private army who relocated to central Africa after the August 2023 death of their leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, said Lieutenant General Ihor Romanenko, the former deputy chief of Ukraine’s General Staff of Armed Forces.

In comparison, “the way we amass resources and reserves is difficult and complicated”, Romanenko told Al Jazeera.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is intensifying strikes on Russian oil refineries, military plants and airfields in annexed Crimea and in western Russia, including sites that are more than 1,000 kilometres (621 miles) from the border.

The strikes on oil refineries contradict recommendations from Washington amid fears of oil prices going up – a decision Romanenko dismissed as a “double standard” given the bill to provide $60bn aid to Ukraine was stalled in Congress for months.

“Shall we just watch the way they behave with such hypocrisy, with double standards, and welcome their suggestions?” he said.

Meanwhile, Washington is reluctant to provide Ukraine with fighter jets and missiles.

That, in turn, makes the task of reconquering Russian-occupied areas “complicated and divided in stages” that would include diplomatic efforts, Romanenko added.

He compared the situation with the way Croatia regained the areas it lost during its war for independence between 1991 and 1995.

Return of Crimea ‘absolutely unrealistic’

But foreign observers are far less optimistic.

The return of Crimea “is absolutely unrealistic”, said Nikolay Mitrokhin of Germany’s Bremen University.

Before the failure of Ukraine’s counteroffensive last summer there was a chance to return the annexed peninsula had Ukrainian forces reached the Azov Sea and started shelling the Crimean bridge and the Kerch Strait that divides the Azov and Black seas, he said.

“But now it’s hardly real to penetrate Russian defence farther than the takeover of the Kinburn peninsula,” a fish-shaped area in the southern Mykolaiv and Kherson regions, he told Al Jazeera.

The Kremlin invested billions of dollars in Crimea’s infrastructure and military bases – and cracked down on pro-Ukrainian residents who largely fled to mainland Ukraine.

The situation in the Donbas looks even more desperate, even though Moscow spent significantly less money there and the annexed part of the region is depopulated and destitute after severing economic ties with Kyiv-controlled areas.

“In Donbas, such breakthroughs were not real even last year,” Mitrokhin said.

The best one can expect from Ukrainian forces this year is to prevent the Russian siege of the towns of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk in the northern part of Kyiv-controlled part of Donbas, he said.

In theory, Ukrainian forces have a chance to break through the northern Luhansk region for about 100 kilometres (62 miles) towards the Russian border, he said.

“But it’s meaningless from the military and strategic viewpoints, because it will cost many victims and resources, but will not make northern Luhansk fit for peaceful life even with a truce and the freezing of the conflict,” he said.

Al Jazeera