In his inaugural address one year ago, President Bola Tinubu championed unity and promised to remodel the economy to bring about growth and development through job creation, food security and ending extreme poverty.

As Tinubu begins his second year as president, most Nigerians score him very low on the economy, according to results from a new national Africa Polling Institute (API) poll.

At least 84 percent of respondents expressed sadness with the current state of affairs in the country under Tinubu while 81 per cent said that the president is driving the country in the wrong direction.

One such Nigerian dissatisfied with Tinubu’s performance is Abubakar Ibrahim, a development worker in the Nigerian capital and former supporter of the president.

Ibrahim told PREMIUM TIMES that he was no longer happy to have voted for Tinubu and remains sceptical of how much he can achieve. Ibrahim, 31, sees Tinubu’s first year as one of “ups and downs.”

“The biggest problem that continues to face us is inflation and in turn the cost of living crisis. Unfortunately, these are problems induced by the president’s policies,” Ibrahim said.

The latest API national survey brings to light a stark reality, said Bell Ihua, the API’s executive director. “Hunger, poverty, and dissatisfaction are the harsh realities of Tinubu’s one year in office.”

In terms of the biggest challenges facing the country under Tinubu’s stewardship, 36 per cent of respondents said hunger, 28 per cent identified with inability to meet basic needs and 13 per cent said unemployment. This is followed by heightened insecurity (9 per cent) and poor electricity supply (5 per cent).

Similarly, about 74 per cent of respondents affirmed that their economic situation has deteriorated over the last year, compared to 20 per cent who said their economic situation had remained the same and a meagre 5 per cent who said it had improved.

“The impact of the cost of living crisis we are in is weighing heavily on me,” Muhammad Sani, a resident of Kano State, told PREMIUM TIMES. “The prices of goods have more than doubled under this administration. There are basic things we can’t afford now as a family and that has impacted our living standard negatively.”

In terms of the job performance of Tinubu, 78 per cent of respondents said he has performed abysmally, with 49 per cent rating him “Very Poor” and 29 per cent “Poor.”

Methodology

The national survey was administered between the 1st and 18th of May to elicit citizens’ opinions and assessments of Tinubu’s first year in office.

The researchers said they applied a stratified random sampling method, ensuring representation from all nationwide demographic groups. A total of 3,996 randomly selected Nigerians aged 18 years and above were interviewed in the 36 states and Abuja, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country.

The researchers said they visited three local government areas (LGAs) in each of the 36 states, covering the 108 senatorial districts in the country, as well as the urban, semi-urban, and rural residents. In the FCT, the API visited the six area councils to meet respondents.

“With a sample of this size, we can say with 95 per cent confidence that the results are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3 per cent,” Ihua said, adding, “For scholars, researchers, practitioners, and policymakers who wish to undertake further statistical analysis of our data, the raw data for this national survey can be purchased on our website.”

PT

The Federal Government has withdrawn the three-count terrorism charge against Bello Bodejo, the President of Miyetti Allah Kautal Hore. Bodejo was arrested at the Miyetti Allah office in Karu Local Government Area of Nasarawa State after unveiling a vigilante group.

The government had accused Bodejo of establishing an ethnic militia in Nasarawa State and being involved in activities detrimental to national security and public safety. The charges included providing material support, assistance, and transportation for acts of terrorism, as specified under Sections 29, 2(3)(g)(xii), 12(a), and 13(2)(b) of the Terrorism (Prevention and Prohibition) Act, 2022.

Bodejo had been in the custody of the Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) since January 23, with the trial court approving his detention on March 22. On May 27, the court denied his bail but ordered an accelerated hearing of the charges.

However, at the commencement of the hearing yesterday, Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Lateef Fagbemi, applied to withdraw the charges. A lawyer from the AGF’s office, Mrs. Aderonke Imana, made an oral application for the withdrawal.

Bodejo’s legal team, led by Ahmed Raji, did not oppose the withdrawal and thanked the AGF for his "magnanimous gesture." In a brief ruling, the trial judge, Inyang Ekwo, discharged Bodejo from the allegations.

Israel seizes Gaza's entire border with Egypt, presses with raids into Rafah

Israeli forces have taken control of a buffer zone along the border between the Gaza Strip and Egypt, the country's military said on Wednesday, giving Israel effective authority over the Palestinian territory's entire land border.

Israel also continued deadly raids on Rafah in southern Gaza despite an order from the International Court of Justice to end attacks on the city, where half of Gaza's 2.3 million people had previously taken refuge.

In a televised briefing, chief military spokesperson Daniel Hagari said Israeli forces had gained "operational" control over the "Philadelphi Corridor", using the Israeli military's code name for the 14 km-long (9 mile) corridor along the Gaza Strip's only border with Egypt.

"The Philadelphi Corridor served as an oxygen line for Hamas, which it regularly used to smuggle weapons into the area of the Gaza Strip," Hagari said. Hamas is the armed Palestinian group that governs the blockaded territory.

Hagari did not spell out what "operational" control referred to but an Israeli military official earlier said there were Israeli "boots on the ground" along parts of the corridor.

The border with Egypt along the southern edge was the Gaza Strip's only land border that Israel had not controlled directly.

Earlier on Wednesday, Israel sent tanks on raids into Rafah. They had moved into the heart of Rafah for the first time on Tuesday despite an order from the top United Nations court to immediately halt the assault on the city.

The World Court said Israel had not explained how it would keep evacuees from Rafah safe and provide food, water and medicine. Its ruling also called on Hamas to immediately and unconditionally release hostages taken from Israel on Oct. 7.

Rafah residents said Israeli tanks had pushed into Tel Al-Sultan in the west and Yibna and near Shaboura in the centre before retreating towards a buffer zone on the border with Egypt, rather than staying put as they have in other offensives.

"We received distress calls from residents in Tel Al-Sultan where drones targeted displaced citizens as they moved from areas where they were staying toward the safe areas," the deputy director of ambulance and emergency services in Rafah, Haitham al Hams, said.

Palestinian health officials said 19 civilians had been killed in Israeli airstrikes and shelling across Gaza. Israel accuses Hamas militants of hiding among civilians, something Gaza's ruling Islamist group denies.

Health Minister Majed Abu Raman urged Washington to pressure Israel to open the Rafah crossing to aid, saying there was no indication that Israeli authorities would do so soon and that patients in besieged Gaza were dying for lack of treatment.

Fighting in Gaza will continue throughout 2024 at least, Israel's National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi said, signalling Israel was not ready to end the war as Hamas has demanded as part of a deal to exchange its hostages for Palestinian prisoners.

"The fighting in Rafah is not a pointless war," Hanegbi said, reiterating that Israel aimed to end Hamas rule in Gaza and stop it and its allies attacking Israel.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Israel needed to craft a post-war plan for Gaza or risk lawlessness, chaos and a Hamas comeback in the enclave.

The U.S., Israel's closest ally, reiterated its opposition to a major ground offensive in Rafah on Tuesday while saying it did not believe such an operation was under way.

More than 36,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israel's Gaza offensive, the enclave's health ministry said.

Israel launched its war after Hamas-led militants attacked southern Israeli communities on Oct. 7, killing around 1,200 people and seizing more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.

CEASEFIRE NEGOTIATIONS STRUGGLE ON

There was no word on Wednesday on developments in the ceasefire and hostage release talks. Hamas has said talks are pointless unless Israel ends its offensive on Rafah.

The armed wing of Hamas and that of allies Islamic Jihad said they confronted invading forces in Rafah with anti-tank rockets and mortar bombs and blew up explosive devices they had planted, resulting in numerous successful hits.

The Israeli military said three Israeli soldiers were killed and three badly wounded. Public broadcaster Kan radio said an explosive device had been set off in a Rafah building.

Palestinian health officials said several people were wounded by Israeli fire and stores of aid were set ablaze in eastern Rafah, where residents said Israeli bombardment had destroyed many homes in an area Israel has ordered evacuated.

Around a million Palestinians who had taken shelter in Rafah at the southern end of the Gaza Strip have now fled after Israeli orders to evacuate, the U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees UNRWA reported on Tuesday.

The Palestine Red Crescent Society (PRCS) said it had evacuated its medical teams from its field hospital in the Al-Mawasi area, a designated civilian evacuation zone, because of continued bombardments.

PRCS said two of its staff were killed when an ambulance was struck while on a mission to rescue people in Rafah. In another Israeli air strike on a house in Gaza City, medics said five other Palestinians were killed.

In the nearby city of Khan Younis, an Israeli air strike killed three people overnight, including Salama Baraka, a former senior Hamas police officer, medics and Hamas media said. Another killed four people, including two children, medics said.

In northern Gaza, Israeli forces shelled Gaza City neighbourhoods and moved deeper into Jabalia, where residents said large residential districts were destroyed.

Malnutrition has become widespread in Gaza as aid deliveries have slowed to a trickle. The U.N., which has warned of famine, said on Wednesday the amount of humanitarian aid entering the enclave has dropped by two-thirds since Israel began its assault on the Rafah region this month.

Reuters

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Soldiers in Ukraine say US-supplied tanks have made them targets for Russian strikes

Ukrainian crews working on US-supplied Abrams tanks have told CNN of a series of the weaknesses and flaws with the armored vehicles, calling into doubt their utility on the war’s ever-changing frontlines. The donation was announced by US President Joe Biden as evidence of the United States’ “enduring and unflagging commitment to Ukraine.”

CNN journalists were the first reporters to see the M1 Abrams in Ukraine, at a location in the country’s east, where around six vehicles were visible, hiding in the foliage.

Crews trained in Germany said the vehicles – the US military’s main $10 million battle tank used in Iraq against Saddam Hussein’s forces and insurgents – lacked armor that could stop modern weapons.

“Its armor is not sufficient for this moment,” said one crew member, callsign Joker. “It doesn’t protect the crew. For real, today this is the war of drones. So now, when the tank rolls out, they always try to hit them.”

His colleague, Dnipro, added they are the “number one target.”

“Without defense, the crew doesn’t survive at the battlefield,” he said.

The crew showed CNN their attempts to affix active armor to one damaged tank. They used plates of plastic explosive that, when hit by a round, detonate and provide a protective counter-blast.

All 31 Abrams deployed to Ukraine are engaged near the frontline in the east, according to officials in the 47th Mechanised Brigade, who took receipt of them all. The Ukrainian request for Abrams, complex and heavy tanks, sparked significant debate in early 2023, as the American vehicle has a complex supply chain. Some versions even run on jet fuel.

Pentagon officials said in April that the Abrams were pulled back from the frontline due to the threat of Russian attack drones, although the 47th said some were still in action, despite the deficiencies that had materialized.

Much of the Ukrainian frontline is now dominated by the use of self-destructing attack drones, tiny and accurate devices that can swarm infantry and even cause significant damage to tanks. The advent of these so called First-Person Vision (FPV) drones, flown by soldiers wearing gaming goggles, has changed the nature of the war, limiting movement and introducing a new element of vulnerability to armored vehicles.

This Ukrainian crew have learned of the Abrams’ limitations the hard way, in pitched battles around the town of Avdiivka, which Russia finally took control of in February. A driver lost a leg when the armor was penetrated. Yet it is not just innovation that is hamstringing the tanks — they appear to have technical issues too.

One, parked under a tree, was almost immobile during CNN’s visit, due to an engine problem, the crew say, despite the vehicle having just been shipped in from Poland. They also complain of how, in rain or fog, condensation can fry the electronics inside the vehicle.

Ammunition is also a problem, like elsewhere on the Ukrainian frontline. They say they seem to have the wrong type for the fight they are in.

“What we have is more for direct tank-to-tank fights, which happens very rarely,” Joker said. “Much more often we work as artillery. You need to take apart a tree-line or a building. We had a case when we fired 17 rounds into a house and it was still standing.”

The Ukrainian crew expressed frustration the tanks were made for a NATO style of warfare, in which air power and artillery prepare the battlefield before tanks and infantry advance. Kyiv has long bemoaned its lack of artillery and air power.

“They would never do it,” Joker said, of NATO soldiers undertaking the same advances they make without air support. He switched to English to mimic a NATO soldier: “‘Call the aviation, call the artillery,’” he said. “We have no aviation and artillery. We have only tank. And it’s the problem.”

A spokesperson for the Ukrainian defense ministry told CNN that “Ukraine is now testing and improving equipment that was not initially prepared for our war.”

“We are asking all countries to support us with equipment of any technical capacity levels. We use all of it accordingly,” the spokesperson added.

Biden’s decision to supply the Abrams came after European allies pledged to send their own battle tanks in early 2023 ahead of Ukraine’s failed summer counteroffensive last year, a step that had been deemed unthinkable months earlier.

Kyiv’s allies have slowly swallowed the red lines of what equipment they once refused to supply. F-16s may arrive in Ukraine in the months ahead. Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukraine’s military commander, on Monday said he had signed initial paperwork to permit France to send military trainers into the country to try and reverse an urgent manpower problem on the frontlines. France’s defense ministry declined to confirm the plan, but said it, and other ideas, had long been under discussion. The move would mark a significant escalation in the West’s involvement in the war, now in its third year.

The Ukrainian defense ministry later appeared to tamp down those expectations, saying in a statement to CNN that it had “started internal paperwork to move forward when the decision is taken.”

For the Abrams crew, each delay in equipment or assistance costs the lives of friends. “I only have one question,” Joker said of US assistance. “Why is this taking so long and (comes) partially? We are losing time. It’s death to us.”

** France and Germany say Ukraine should be able to use their weapons to strike inside Russia

France and Germany said Tuesday that Ukraine should be allowed to use their weapons against targets inside Russia from which Moscow attacks Ukraine.

Speaking at a news conference alongside German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Tuesday, French President Emmanuel Macron outlined that French weapons sent to Ukraine, including long-range missiles, were permitted to target bases inside Russia.

“Ukrainian soil is being attacked from bases in Russia,” Macron said during his visit to Schloss Meseberg in Brandenburg, Germany. “So how do we explain to the Ukrainians that we’re going to have to protect these towns and basically everything we’re seeing around Kharkiv at the moment, if we tell them you are not allowed to hit the point from which the missiles are fired?”

“We think that we should allow them to neutralize the military sites from which the missiles are fired and, basically, the military sites from which Ukraine is attacked,” Macron continued.

Macron added, however, that “we must not allow them to hit other targets in Russia,” including civilian or other military targets.

Germany’s Scholz echoed Macron’s comments and said that Ukraine was allowed to defend itself as long as it respected the conditions given by the countries that supplied the weapons - including the United States - and international law.

“Ukraine has every possibility under international law for what it is doing. That has to be said explicitly,” Scholz said. “I find it strange when some people argue that it should not be allowed to defend itself and take measures that are suitable for this.”

Western allies of Ukraine have long held the policy that donated weapons should be strictly limited to usage inside Ukrainian territory. The issue is a controversial one, with fears from Western leaders that if their weaponry is used to strike inside Russia, it would escalate the violence and trigger a wider war involving NATO.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly asked permission from his allies to expand the usage of the provided weapons to strike inside Russia.

The United States, the largest arms supplier to Ukraine, has previously forbidden Kyiv from firing its weapons inside Russian territory over escalation concerns.

However, in comments that appeared to hint at the possibility of a change in policy, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Wednesday that the US would continue to “adapt and adjust” its support for Ukraine.

“Another hallmark of our support for Ukraine over the last two years has been to adapt as the conditions have changed. Battlefields change. As what Russia does has changed in terms of how it is pursuing its aggression escalation, we’ve adapted and adjusted too. And I am confident we will continue to do that,” he said when asked about the possibility of allowing Ukraine to strike Russian soil.

But Blinken also reiterated that at present the US has not enabled Ukraine to strike beyond its borders into Russia with US weaponry.

“We haven’t encouraged or enabled strikes outside of Ukraine. Ukraine, as I’ve said before, has to make its own decisions about the best way to effectively defend itself. We’re going to make sure that it has the equipment that it needs to do that,” Blinken said.

When pressed on his remarks about adjusting and adapting, he added, “We’re always listening. We’re always learning, and we’re always making determinations about what’s necessary to make sure that Ukraine can effectively continue to defend itself.”

Shift in red lines?

Previous red lines drawn by Western leaders in their support for Ukraine have been crossed, including the provision of tanks, which was agreed in early 2023 to help Ukraine breach enemy defensive lines, and F-16 fighter jets, which European governments agreed to in the summer of 2023 after months of diplomatic pressure.

France has supplied Ukraine with an unknown number of SCALP cruise missiles, according to the French Defense Ministry’s website.

The SCALP missiles have a range of up to 155 kilometers (96 miles) and carry a 400-kilogram (881-pound) high-explosive penetration warhead, according to the Missile Threat project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The SCALP is the equivalent of Britain’s Storm Shadow, which has also been given to Ukraine, and which British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said earlier this month could be used at Kyiv’s discretion.

“In terms of what the Ukrainians do, in our view it is their decision about how to use these weapons, they are defending their country, they were illegally invaded by Putin and they must take those steps,” Cameron said during a visit to Kyiv. “We don’t discuss any caveats that we put on those things. But let’s be absolutely clear: Russia has launched an attack into Ukraine, and Ukraine absolutely has the right to strike back at Russia.”

France has also supplied Ukraine with a range of military weaponry, including Caesar self-propelled howitzers with a range of up to 42 kilometers.

Macron stressed that the French arms are to be used only against targets from which attacks are launched into Ukraine.

“We must not allow them to hit other targets in Russia,” including civilian or other military targets, the French leader said.

But Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed Ukraine could not use the long-range weapons without significant NATO support, and such involvement by the alliance could trigger “a global conflict.”

For instance, “long-range precision weapons cannot be used without space-based reconnaissance,” Putin said Tuesday during a state visit to Uzbekistan.

“Final target selection” or “launch mission” for Western systems need to be made by “highly skilled specialists who rely on this reconnaissance data,” Putin said.

“So, these officials from NATO countries, especially the ones based in Europe, particularly in small European countries, should be fully aware of what is at stake,” he emphasized.

“They should keep in mind that theirs are small and densely populated countries, which is a factor to reckon with before they start talking about striking deep into the Russian territory.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine got a key pledge of support on Tuesday from Belgium, which said it will supply Kyiv with 30 F-16 fighter jets in the next four years, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

The deal was part of a bilateral security agreement signed between the two countries Tuesday in Brussels, according to the Ukrainian leader.

The agreement includes at least $1.06 billion in Belgian military aid to Ukraine this year, with Belgium offering its long-term commitment to support Ukraine over the next 10 years, Zelensky detailed in a post on X. The first F-16 jets from Belgium will be delivered this year.

“The agreement guarantees Belgium’s timely security assistance, modern armored vehicles, equipment to meet Ukraine’s air force and air defense needs, naval security, mine clearance, participation in the artillery ammunition coalition, and military training,” Zelensky said.

The meeting follows a similar agreement between Ukraine and Spain on Monday, with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez announcing a $1.08 billion weapons deal for Ukraine.

Alongside Belgium and Spain, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, Denmark, Finland and Canada have also signed security agreements.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Russian troops destroy first French-made TRF1 howitzer in Ukraine operation

Russian troops destroyed the first French-made TRF1 towed howitzer of the Ukrainian army over the past day in the special military operation in Ukraine, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported on Wednesday.

Russia’s Battlegroup West units gained better ground and inflicted casualties on six Ukrainian army and National Guard brigades in the Kupyansk area where the enemy lost roughly 400 troops over the past day, it specified.

In addition, "the Ukrainian army lost two tanks, 11 motor vehicles, a Polish-manufactured 155mm Krab self-propelled artillery system, a French-made 155mm TRF1 howitzer and two US-made 105mm M119 guns," the ministry said in a statement.

Ukrainian army loses 165 troops in Kharkov area over past day

The Ukrainian army lost roughly 165 troops and two combat vehicles in battles with Russian forces in the Kharkov area over the past day, the ministry reported.

"Battlegroup North units continued advancing deep into the enemy’s defenses and inflicted casualties on manpower and equipment of the Ukrainian army’s 82nd air assault, 3rd tank and 125th territorial defense brigades in areas near the settlements of Liptsy, Volchansk, Vilcha, Neskuchnoye and Malaya Danilovka in the Kharkov Region. In addition, they repulsed four counterattacks by assault groups of the Ukrainian army’s 57th motorized infantry, 71st jaeger and 13th National Guard brigades," the ministry said.

The Ukrainian army’s losses in the Kharkov direction over the past 24 hours amounted to 165 personnel, two infantry fighting vehicles, seven motor vehicles, a 152mm D-20 howitzer, a US-manufactured 155mm Paladin self-propelled artillery gun and two Bukovel-AD electronic warfare stations, it specified.

Russian forces also destroyed a Ukrainian ammunition depot, it said.

Russian troops strike six Ukrainian army brigades in Kupyansk area over past day

Russian troops advanced to better positions and inflicted casualties on six Ukrainian army brigades in the Kupyansk area over the past day, the ministry reported.

"Battlegroup West units took more advantageous positions and inflicted damage on formations of the Ukrainian army’s 14th, 30th, 77th and 116th mechanized, 13th and 31st National Guard brigades in areas near the settlements of Sinkovka in the Kharkov Region, Novosyolovskoye in the Lugansk People’s Republic, Grigorovka and Serebryanka in the Donetsk People’s Republic. They repelled two counterattacks by assault groups of the Ukrainian army’s 43rd mechanized brigade and 3rd border guard squad. The Ukrainian army lost as many as 400 personnel," the ministry said.

Ukrainian army loses 245 troops in Donetsk area over past day

The Ukrainian army lost roughly 245 troops and six ammunition depots in battles with Russian forces in the Donetsk area over the past day, the ministry reported.

"The enemy lost as many as 245 personnel, two tanks, two motor vehicles, a 152mm Giatsint gun and a 122mm D-30 howitzer. Over the past 24 hours, six ammunition depots of the Ukrainian army were destroyed," the ministry said.

Kiev loses 125 troops in south Donetsk area over past day

The Ukrainian army lost roughly 125 troops in battles with Russian forces in the south Donetsk area over the past day, the ministry reported.

"The enemy’s losses amounted to 125 personnel, a tank, two armored combat vehicles and six motor vehicles," the ministry said.

CNN/Tass

This week last year, two things were enthroned in the Nigerian political space. One was the man, Bola Tinubu, who was sworn in as the president. The other was the myth of the man as a headhunter endowed with a unique instinct for sourcing the right talent and an astute administrator. So much was this idea of Tinubu as administrative capacity believed that his supporters were sure he would—to use the language of former Abia state governor Orji Kalu—forward Nigeria to all forwardness. Well, it is one year now, and we might as well start asking how that myth has fared.

Let me digress here to point out that two kinds of people propagated the myth of Tinubu’s governing capacity. In one category are those you might call the Know-No-Betters. These are those who have never seen—let alone lived in—a properly functioning city and therefore have no frame of comparison when they were told Tinubu would build Nigeria as he built Lagos. They could be beguiled by the travesty of Lagos, a city where property value costs a fortune but cannot even boast of something as basic as potable water because that is the height of their experience. Even when they see the seedy sides of Lagos, their desperation for an idol to worship pushes them to willingly blind themselves to reality by eagerly gorging on glossy photoshopped images of Eko Atlantic. When you can self-soothe with the visuals of utopia, dystopia becomes livable.

Then there are the Dishonest-Know-Betters—the people whose lives and livelihoods depend on peddling lies, distortions, sentiments, and blatantly voiced falsehoods. They have experienced functional societies so they know what we have is subpar but they still tell you it is sufficient. Nigeria’s future does not concern them because they have built a safe house elsewhere where they and their children will forever be untainted by the rottenness of the country.

So, how has the myth of Tinubu as a savvy administrator held up? Well, two separate policies might best illustrate how they have conducted themselves in office so far. On May 29, 2023, Tinubu pronounced the three words that immediately unleashed hardship on Nigerians who had already endured hell under the Muhammadu Buhari administration: subsidy is gone. Now, the issue is not that he removed the subsidy—that was already expected—but he was haphazard about such a significant step.

Here is why: about a month after that pronouncement, he announced that he could announce the decision because he was under the influence of some “spirits.” Please think about that for a moment. The President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria made a decision that would affect the lives and livelihood of millions of people, not because he had sat down and worked out a policy agenda with an economic team, but because he was pushed by some voices in his head? Wow!

If it was some “spirits” that took possession of him and forced the words out of his mouth, it means there was no thorough planning to see how the fuel subsidy removal would work, how to mitigate the resultant suffering, and how to assess if their programme was working. Even worse, it means he cannot fully take responsibility for the fallouts of such a programme since it originated from some forces. Whatever pain and hardship you will experience due to his policy decision is not for him to bear. After all, he only acted under some supernatural influence when he pronounced the policy into effect. That too is worth ruminating over: the man some people convinced themselves would turn Nigeria into a Dubai does not plan.

Then came this year when the same administration that told us that the fuel subsidy that helped to attenuate the economic reality was a waste also approved a whopping N90bn to subsidise the hajj pilgrimage. Again, this is worth a reflection: the man saw Nigerians groan in pain from his fuel subsidy removal and grovelled for help, but looked away. They insisted on delivering the hard shocks because the subsidies were supposedly a waste of resources. They offered “palliatives” instead. Their efforts in this direction were so poorly thought-out and poorly organised that they reversed the plan. So, while they had no answer for the pain of the generality of Nigerians and resolutely watched people suffer, they had no qualms catering to a tiny segment of the population embarking on something as privileged as a religious pilgrimage.

What is worse than Tinubu paying N90bn on the hajj this year is that he has to pay it next year, and the year after, and continue like that, especially as his second term election approaches. If he fails to sustain it, the Muslim population whose vote he is targeting through the humongous expense will not forgive him. Worse still, they would have forgotten what he paid in 2024. He has to keep up the spending. Given the Nigerian penchant to turn virtually any initiative into an avenue to siphon public funds, do not be any surprised if that N90bn starts ballooning yearly. You assess the situation he got himself and long-suffering Nigerians into, and wonder how a man who was so mythicized could unravel that quickly. When it came to administering pain and shock, Tinubu was possessed with the spirits of “courage” and “freedom” as he gayly put it. When it came to standing up to religious and ethnic sentiments, his pandering revealed those spirits as “cowardice” and “economic bondage.”

But that is not only where the legion spirits of indecisiveness have possessed the man. First, he took forever to assemble a cabinet even though he won the election in March. He had enough time to decide on a team; he just took it for granted. By the time he unfolded his team, there was initially some confusion over who had made the list. When the final list was unfolded, it was anything but inspiring. Even some of his supporters who had boasted that he knows how to look for the best people were disappointed by how many of those nominated were recycled from the garbage cans of the past administration. To think they even expanded the cabinet just to take some clowns on board.

He signed the Student Loan Act into law, but they later withdrew it with the promise to return. Till now, they are still fumbling through the launch. He recalled ambassadors from their posts, but it turned out that he had no plans in place to replace them. He also proposed the Green Tax but had to reverse it when the introduction turned out to be ill-timed. Then there were the Import Tax Adjustment Levy, Expatriate Tax, and the Cybersecurity Levy that were introduced but needed to be reversed. He will probably go down in history as the president with the most reversed policies in the history of governance at the rate he is going. Even the construction Lagos-Calabar highway, announced with fanfare, had not been fully thought through. Then the blatant and needless lies such as the UAE visa ban and the Maersk affair suggest that they lack any integrity. If they cannot be honest with even the simple things, why should you trust them on the big things?

Plot all of these together, and you come up with a solid picture of a man whose administration lacks coordination and takes decisions based on what their hormones (and some spirits, of course) dictate. Tinubu’s myth as an efficient administrator that has always been propped up with media propaganda and self-serving intellectuals has severely unravelled, revealing an unpleasant picture of the man, the myth, and the mediocrity. To think we are going through this after “16 years of the Peoples Democratic Party” and “eight years of Buhari.” Add the past one year, and you see 25 directionless years. God help somebody!

Punch

As someone in my 30s, it’s tough to read tips for new grads without cringing. Too often, what now seems like obvious, common-sense advice is something that I blissfully ignored in my 20s.

Every once in a while, though, I get a little jolt when I realize that a younger version of me managed to do something right.

That’s how I felt when I read my colleague Cheyenne Devon's recent writeup from a chat with Ramit Sethi, a self-made millionaire and author of “I Will Teach You to Be Rich.” In it, he offers his No. 1 money tip for new grads.

“You’ve got to invest 10% of your salary every year,” Sethi says. “And at the end of the year, increase that by 1%. Do this for as long as you can and you will be a multimillionaire.”

Hey — I did that! Well, more or less. I didn’t exactly launch a career the second I graduated. I spent a few months making ends meet as a cater-waiter while crashing on friends’ couches. Even if I had money to spare, I wouldn’t have known how to invest it.

Luckily, I landed an internship at a financial magazine with a cubicle next to the editor who helped choose mutual funds for the company 401(k). Soon, 10% of my $12-an-hour salary went into the plan.

The key for new grads isn’t necessarily a particular percentage: It’s starting early and staying consistent. You’ll see a lot of quotes touting the “magic” of compounding interest or calling it the eighth wonder of the world. Really, it’s just math. 

You can use this calculator to see just how powerfully that math works in your favor if you start early.

Say you started contributing $300 a month to a workplace retirement account at age 22 and invested for the next 45 years. If your portfolio earned an annualized return of 7%, you’d end up with a balance north of $1.1 million. 

If you invested the same amount and earned the same return, but instead started at age 30, you’d end up with about $632,000. 

If you're graduating this spring, do yourself a favor and get started soon. Your future self will thank you.

CNBC

A year into President Bola Tinubu’s tenure, the infectious optimism of liberty, economic progress, security, and well-being heralding his inauguration on May 29, 2023, has turned to dying embers. In the President’s first year, all Nigerians see is hopelessness, misery, privations, and pain. The despair is evident in the numbers: the cost-of-living crises, hyperinflation, joblessness, and naira depreciation. Amidst the supercilious backslapping in government circles, poverty, and bloodshed are intensifying. Tinubu should retrace his steps in the remaining years of his tenure to bequeath a redoubtable legacy to the country.

Under Tinubu, Nigeria is a harsh contrast to Abraham Lincoln’s “Democracy is the government of the people, by the people, for the people.” Instead, only a tiny band of politicians, their families, and sycophants are laughing all the way to the bank. From his “subsidy is gone” pronouncement on Inauguration Day, which cancelled petrol subsidies, chronic hardship has defined his tenure.

From N187 per litre pre-Tinubu, petrol now sells between N568/l and N800/l. Without well-implemented safety nets, most citizens have found it difficult to cope with the astronomical rise in transportation and food costs. This has heightened poverty. It stood at 46 per cent in 2023 or 104 million citizens, per the World Bank.

Two other policies have combined to bankrupt citizens. The first is the merger of the naira rates through floatation. The second is the cancellation of subsidies for Band A electricity consumers in April. Consequently, the naira has depreciated significantly. It exchanged at N464 per $1 in May 2023, plunged to N1,900/$1 early in 2024 before trading at around N1,500/$1 currently despite a raft of artificial policies to shore up its value. By February, it had lost 68 per cent of its value.

The impact goes beyond Nigeria. Formerly reckoned as Africa’s largest economy, Nigeria has ceded the top three continental slots to South Africa, Egypt, and Algeria respectively. It is now fourth in Africa with a GDP of $252.73 billion on the back of currency depreciation.

From N68 per kilowatt-hour, the tariff for the Band A segment climbed to N225/kWh before dropping to N206.80/kWh in May.

On the monetary policy side, the Central Bank of Nigeria has moved the benchmark interest rate from 18.50 per cent in May 2023 to 26.25 per cent, after three consecutive hikes in 2024.

All this has jacked up prices, though the Tinubu government is yet to implement a wage review. He met the national minimum wage of N30,000 per month. Businesses are complaining about the increased costs of borrowing funds.

In April, inflation spiked to a 28-year high of 33.69 per cent. Food inflation worsened to 40.63 per cent. Imports are priced steeply because of the depreciation of the naira. This is devastating to everyday living. Medicines are out of reach of citizens.

Tinubu, who has fulfilled his lifelong ambition to govern Nigeria, assumed office during the economic downturn. But there was hope initially of a revival after a largely successful eight-year tenure in Lagos State (1999-2007). In truth, that optimism is blowing in the wind.

Under him, governance is not much different from the preceding era of locusts supervised by the clueless Muhammadu Buhari (2015-2023). Abductions and killings are an epidemic. This is reminiscent of the Biafra Civil War (1967-1970).

While 63,111 died in violence on Buhari’s watch, 6,931 were killed in Tinubu’s first 10 months. Beacon Security and Intelligence counted 2,583 killings in the first quarter under Tinubu. SBM Intelligence reported 4,777 abductions when Tinubu assumed office to early May 2023. The worst-hit states are Plateau, Benue, Kaduna, Niger, Zamfara, Kogi, Katsina and Borno.

Beyond regular meetings with the security chiefs, Tinubu seems to have no strategy for taming the violence. His lack of a plan is seen in the rampage by bandits, Islamic terrorists, Fulani herdsmen attacks on farmers, and abductions across the country. Like Buhari, Tinubu ensconces himself in the Aso Rock fortress without identifying with the victims of violence by visiting the scene of the crime. He should show more empathy.

Undoubtedly, state capture has not receded in the past year. It is business as usual for the degenerate political class. Take the National Assembly. To undertake constituency projects – a cesspool of sleaze – ranking senators directly received between N200 million and N500 million in their accounts. This is wasteful, a brazen extortion of the commonwealth. Strangely, Tinubu applauded the lawmakers, saying “your integrity is intact!” It is not; it is state capture.

Nigeria still suffers from massive electricity shortages under Tinubu. The only good aspect is installed capacity, which hit 14,000 megawatts in 2023. It has not affected supply: the sole national grid often collapses if fed more than 4,000MW.

True, Tinubu inherited a hollow economy with a debt stock of N87 trillion (centre alone). The infrastructure is shabby, needing $150 billion annually over 30 years to bridge, per the World Bank. Social services, particularly education and health, are in a shambles.

Undeniably, it is not all bad news. Apart from speedily delivering the rehabilitation of the Third Mainland Bridge, and the Apapa-Oshodi Expressway in Lagos, the 700-kilometre Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway at N15 trillion over seven years is ambitious. Abandoned since conception in 1978, the Tinubu administration is commencing work on the 1,000km Badagry-Sokoto Highway. This is in addition to the 330 federal roads and bridges the President virtually commissioned on Sunday. Combined, these projects are expected to begin an era of infrastructural renewal. Tinubu should ensure that none of them is abandoned.

Regularly, the military scores big against Islamic terrorists in the North-East. This has limited the reach of the insurgents.

The economy is suffering partly because of the importation of petroleum products. This reportedly gulps between 30 and 40 per cent of forex, putting enormous pressure on the naira. With the Dangote Refinery set to commence the production of petrol, the economy is set for a boost. The positive effect of the Dangote Refinery is already being felt in the cost of diesel.

As he embarks on the second year of his four-year term, Tinubu should govern with more compassion. He should cut back on his travels and be there for Nigerians during celebrations and mourning.

The President’s private sector background should quicken the pace of economic growth to reclaim its pride of place on the continent.

Surprisingly, he has not embarked on privatisation. Tinubu should privatise the refineries, the airports, seaports, the Ajaokuta Steel Company, and the railways. This will save the government on running costs and boost foreign direct investment.

The President should redirect focus on security. Without this, farming and business will continue to depress. There is a growing trend of brutality among the security agencies. They are abducting journalists with impunity. This is against the rule of law. Nigeria is no longer under a military regime so Tinubu should rein in their excesses.

His cabinet is bloated. He should have a compact team of performers to reduce the cost of governance.

Tinubu is toeing the path of his predecessors on restructuring. This is ludicrous. It is wishful thinking to believe that Nigeria will make progress without restructuring. The President should make restructuring a priority. It will unleash Nigeria’s productive capacity, rebuild trust in governance, improve security, and de-escalate inter-ethnic tensions.

Punch

President Bola Tinubu is one year in office today. It is a milestone that evokes serious reflections, given the electoral promises of every occupant of that office and the country’s existential challenges that need to be tackled. A juxtaposition of the two extremes in one year of this administration leaves no one in doubt of a chasm that is apparently galling.

The administration has noticed this incongruity, gauged the public mood and decided to make the anniversary low-key – a revelation the Minister of Information, Mohammed Idris, made. As Tinubu marks one year in office, what may easily and cynically come to many minds could be that off-the-cuff and thunderous declaration, “fuel subsidy is gone,” to the cheers of Bretton Woods institutions, the infamous deities of market-driven economy. The liberalisation of the foreign exchange market followed. These two policies sparked a perfect storm for the economy.

Inflation, their ineluctable consequence, has since then become a bull in a china shop. Insecurity, lopsidedness in political appointments, transparency deficits in governance and disregard for the 1999 Constitution, have equally soared to dwarf Tinubu’s eight-point Renewed Hope Agenda.

To be fair, he inherited an economy on the brink of total collapse, which he was desperate to change. For instance, his predecessor spent about N7.83 trillion in eight years on fuel subsidy. Reports of the NNPC Limited to the Federal Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) showed subsidy payments of N1.57 trillion in 2021, and N1.27 trillion spent from January to May 2022. From June 2022 to June 2023, when its termination was originally programmed, N3 trillion was budgeted for it.

These expenditures stirred national curiosity; in fact, an open charge of monumental fraud, as the state oil behemoth, the NNPC, and even Buhari, as the substantive minister of Petroleum, could not give the exact quantity of daily fuel consumption. This context is critical. Therefore, the Augean Stables required cleansing. Tinubu then took the bull by the horns without delay. His major challengers in the election – former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi – were equally unequivocal in their subsidy removal advocacy, if elected.

But where Tinubu got it wrong, some would argue, was in his hastiness, without prior consultations with the organised labour and other stakeholders, over how to mitigate its inevitable searing pains. There was no cabinet in place then and for quite some time thereafter. Having put the cart before the horse, a raft of palliatives was hurriedly unfurled, as the Nigeria Labour Congress bristled for a showdown.

The packages include unleashing Compressed Natural Gas buses to help cushion the effects of skyrocketing transport fares. The vehicles are not on Nigerian roads just yet. Then the bait of having the Port Harcourt refinery commence fuel production in December 2023, which did not happen, while a newer date of April 2024 has turned out to be a chicanery too. The general implementation of palliatives to the people unfolded as mired in corruption at the centre, for which a minister has remained suspended from office till date, without any prosecution many months after. State governors were granted loans of N2.5 billion each for delivering palliatives, but they were no less irresponsive in the execution.

Admittedly, fuel subsidy removal as a policy change has halted the haemorrhaging of the treasury, and seen to the doubling of the monthly distributable revenue to the three tiers of government. In June last year, N1.9 trillion was in the coffers, but only N907 billion was shared. The April 2024 figure was N1.2 trillion. For accountability, the NNPC now remits oil revenue to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). Tinubu did well with the Jim Obazee inquest into the apex bank’s operations prior to his assumption of office.

In less than a year, the President has raised economic diplomacy a notch higher, with his peripatetic overtures to foreign investors, which have taken him to France, UAE, India, Saudi Arabia and other nations. He has cut deals in some cases. But it’s not yet Uhuru until these morph into visible and enduring investments. Investors’ confidence is gradually being restored, with the CBN’s settling of foreign airlines and additional debt obligations.

However, Nigeria’s unhinged fiscal crisis is evident in the administration’s rapacious procurement of foreign and domestic loans, the rash of asphyxiating taxations, and the naira’s steady devaluation. The Senate had, in December 2023, approved $7.8 billion and €100 million as part of the 2024 borrowing plan framework. This was followed by a $3.3 billion loan from Afrieximbank, thereafter a first tranche of $2 billion to mitigate the hardship of fuel subsidy and a more recent second tranche of $2.25 billion from the World Bank, coupled with the African Development Bank’s credit of $1 billion to the country. Locally, a N4 trillion credit line has just been secured to fund the 2024 budget deficit.

It is bemusing that these debt cravings misalign with the Minister of Finance, Wale Edun’s expert view in November last year that “Internationally and locally, we are not in a position to rely on borrowing” in funding deficits. Instead, he advocated inward-looking. There are avalanche of leakages to be plugged. Unrecovered oil revenues of over $100 billion (documented stolen crude of $17 billion inclusive), evasion of taxes and levies by VIPs, solid minerals wealth surrendered to rogue miners, unrestrained crude oil theft, revenues the MDAs generate but fail to remit, etc.

Of serious concern is the imprudent use of improved revenues under Tinubu’s government. Its N90 billion 2024 Hajj subsidy, amid an economic headwind, is a sickening misplacement of priority. Christians would expect a balancing act, which will further bleed the treasury. States still owe salaries and pensions. On Tinubu’s watch, the Vice President’s residence cost some N15 billion to build; and the National Assembly splurged N57.6 billion on Sports Utility Vehicles (SUV) for its members. Yet, our universities are grossly underfunded.

The administration is being chafed at, for embarking on a Lagos-Calabar coastal highway construction of 700 kilometres at a tentative cost of N15 trillion, when scores of existing highways remain death traps. The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) says 367 companies closed as of December 2023. Out of those still in business, 335 are in distress, while N350 billion worth of goods were not sold.

No economy thrives with an encumbered real sector. Nigeria’s unfriendly Ease of Doing Business has multiple taxations and high energy costs as pivots. Aliko Dangote emphasised it at the recent convention of Africa’s CEOs in Kigali, Rwanda, last week, that out of every N100 he makes in cement manufacturing, taxation takes N54. The CEO of TotalEnergies, Patrick Pouyanne, rubbed it in with his disclosure that his company snubbed Nigeria for Angola, in their $6 billion investment because of its policy flip-flops.

Tinubu has not demonstrated statecraft in allowing workers’ salaries to remain the same, one year after his economic policies unleashed the harshest hardship on Nigerians. Edo and Cross River states have offered N70,000 as against the Federal Government’s N57,000 minimum wage proposal last week. The indexations it might have used for the figure mismatch the headline inflation at 33.69 per cent – the highest in 28 years, and April’s food inflation at 40.53 per cent, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The situation is dire for Nigerians, especially for the unemployed, and the over 133 million Nigerians judged in 2022 as being multi-dimensionally poor. A litre of fuel, which sold for N185 a year ago, is currently selling between N750 and N800. Worse is the fact that it is scarce. Mid last year, a 50-kilogramme bag of rice was sold between N42,000 and N50,000. It soared to N90,000 in February, and now it costs N80,000. Besides foodstuffs, the cost of medicines, school fees, and house rents are on the same stratospheric trajectory.

Across a broad spectrum of Nigerians, visceral anger, alongside the din over hunger and suffering, is common. It took the IMF disclosure that subsidies are still being covertly paid on fuel to neuter official denial. This is rank recklessness and duplicity in governance.

Sadly, insecurity has been as eerie as the economy. Banditry and kidnapping are everywhere. The North-West and North-Central remain rivulets of the blood of thousands killed by non-state actors. Farmers, afraid of being killed or kidnapped, can’t farm any more. Tinubu’s recognition of this, perhaps, is the reason for his support of state policing as part of resetting Nigeria’s security Doctrine and Architecture, which he promised.

In a democracy, a president is not above the law. He seems indifferent to this canon with his flagrant violation of Section 14 (3) of the Constitution, which outlaws nepotism and ethnic imbalance in political appointments, in order to promote national unity. His Yoruba ethnic stock is in charge of the Ministry of Finance, Central Bank, Federal Inland Revenue Service, Army, Police, Justice Ministry, Supreme Court, Customs, Immigration, EFCC, Ministry of Power, Office of the Chief of Staff and, Petroleum ministry, which he personally mans. This is certainly not an acceptable way of managing Nigeria’s diversity.

All things considered, the weight of the Constitution that makes the welfare and security of citizens the primary purpose of government, reduces Tinubu’s Renewed Hope mantra to a spectral gambit.

Nigeria’s inability to supply enough crude to Dangote Refinery; oil companies’ resort to the use of badges to ship their crude to export terminals, instead of through oil pipelines as oil theft escalates; the lack of due process in major road contracts; the indulgence of corrupt Customs personnel, while sparing looters of the Humanitarian ministry, are poignant echoes that dim whatever is the glaze of his stewardship so far.

Only a handful of ministers are active. The President needs to review the performance of his team, going forward, and in order to salvage whatever is possible of his dissolving electoral promises to Nigerians.

PT

Nigeria’s democracy clocks a quarter-century today, a long time for a country only five scores and 10. How should we take stock? There is something to cheer about, no doubt, but on the whole, these have been 25 years of missed opportunities and what could have been.

That Nigeria has remained one indivisible nation, despite the centrifugal forces unleashed by conflicting ethno-religious and regional cleavages, is certainly something to cheer. A stretch of 25 long years of unbroken and uninterrupted democracy in Nigeria is surely something to cheer about, too, whatever its many imperfections.  Constitutional development has been slow and frustrating, but ongoing.

The many amendments made to the 1999 Constitution, since it came into effect this day 25 years ago, have combined to make Nigeria more federal. There are more items in the Concurrent List in our constitution today than in 1999. The quality and integrity of our national elections have also improved markedly, culminating in a peaceful election transition between two different parties for the first time in our history in 2015.

Beyond these, there have also been modest improvements in socio-economic development too. Nigeria’s economy is today the largest economy in Africa, with a GDP well above $400 billion. The middle class, previously wholly marginalised, has grown in size, now accounting for about 23% of the population and purchasing power in excess of $28 billion annually. Economic sectors, like the creative industries, banking, telecoms and the digital economy have grown remarkably over the past 25 years, even if still lopsided nationally. Access to education, particularly higher education, has likewise expanded considerably, from less than 40 universities in 1999, for example, to more than 170 today, even though the quality of degrees and other certificates churned out annually remains a serious concern.

Yet, all of these are no more than a story of what could have been. In many big countries like Nigeria, politics is deeply rooted to a clear national philosophy: whether to stay ahead of the world or to catch up with it. In Nigeria, however, our politics still lacks any sense of an underlying higher purpose. Politicians and political parties routinely fight for power by all means but for hardly any identifiable collective mission other than self-aggrandisement or enrichment. Almost no politician or party has articulated a higher purpose for politics or imagined a new vision for Nigeria that citizens can value and follow. The result is largely a politics of empty rhetoric, violence, intimidation and the wanton use of money to get elected, which then throws up leaders at all levels who have little idea about what to do once in office.  

The chief arenas for this purposeless politics in Nigeria are the political parties, in government or in opposition. In many a functional democracy, political parties are the guardian angels, not just of government but of democracy itself. They generate policy ideas, actively identify leadership talent for governing or organising, and campaign to raise funds and votes for a chance to implement those ideas. Nigerian political parties are anything but functional or democratic. It is not just that our parties have been unwilling or unable to develop enduring forms of internal democracy; it is that they are effectively anti-democracy. They have neither the interest nor the capacity for generating sound policy ideas, let alone to actively search for leadership talent that will embody those ideas to win elections or form serious governments.

Whether at the federal, state, local government or ward levels, our political parties are a one-man show—usually the highest bidder—who controls the entire machinery of the party for their own personal or patronage ends. Particularly at the local levels, our political parties are peopled by memberships that are frequently unemployed and uneducated, and lacking political ideology of any kind; they are available for purchase by all bidders during primary elections. This is why the most corrupt and violent elections are those that take place within the political parties, rather than between them. The result is a democracy without democratic politics and a political leadership without vision or meaningful purpose.  

These deficiencies of political leadership are most manifest in economic and security policies. More than half of Nigerians (63% or over 133 million) are “multi-dimensionally poor”, according to the government’s own figures. Yet, no government or party has fashioned out any home-grown and context-sensitive policies for lifting millions of Nigerians out of misery. Instead, since 1999, we have seen only an intensification of externally induced neoliberal economic policies that are designed to gloss over the problem, not seriously tackle it.

From former President Obasanjo’s economic empowerment programme, lifted straight out of the World Bank’s “poverty alleviation strategy” documents, to current President Tinubu’s “remove subsidy from everything” policy, the role of the Nigerian state in economic management has been shrinking, even as poverty has been worsening and the government itself has been expanding and spending an increasingly larger share of the annual budgets on itself.  Of the security of life and property, the less said. Nigeria is now not just almost ungovernable, but effectively ungoverned, except when clamping down on citizens.

Nowhere is this sorry state of affairs in politics and governance more evident than in the states. Nigeria is now effectively a country of 36 emperors and one president, because there is far more democratic accountability at the federal level than in the states, individually or collectively. One evidence of this is the total collapse of the local government system, which for all intents and purposes, has long ceased to be a tier of government in any sense of the term. The state legislatures, which are supposed to ensure checks and balances, are today, worse than rubber stamp legislatures: they are no stamps at all. In the past, even during the military, state executive cabinets were agents of subnational development as commissioners and permanent secretaries contributed to policy formulation and led their implementation within their own ministries or departments. Today, a commissioner in most Nigerian states is worth scarcely higher than the Governor’s Personal Assistant (PA), or worse, within the state’s governing structure.

The airwaves and the newspapers will be filled today with lengthy speeches by leaders at all levels thumping their achievements. But after 25 years of democratic governance, this is the Daily Trust’s independent balance sheet on behalf of Nigerians, and it is only the tip of the iceberg.

The Nigerian economy has faced severe challenges during President Bola Tinubu's first year in office, exacerbating the poor economic legacy left by former President Muhammadu Buhari. Afenifere calls for a better understanding of the economy to address the alarming rates of inflation, Naira devaluation, unemployment, homelessness, and poverty. Key concerns are outlined below:

1. Subsidy Removals and Tax Increases: The belief that removing subsidies and increasing taxes will stimulate economic growth is flawed. Former British Prime Minister Winston Churchill once said, “for a nation to try to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to lift himself up by the handle.” Prosperous nations stimulate their economies with subsidies in energy, agriculture, and transportation. The current policy of subsidy removal and tax increases is contracting the economy, with companies folding due to skyrocketing fuel and electricity costs, leading to inflation and declining real incomes.

2. Interest Rate Hikes: The Tinubu administration's reliance on monetary policy has resulted in raising the Monetary Policy Rate to 26.25% from 18.5% a year earlier, and the Cash Reserve Ratio to 45% from 32.5%. These policies are crowding out productive sectors from accessing loans. The hikes in interest rates are ineffective in curbing inflation because the withheld loans flow to a government that spends recklessly, pumping the funds back into the markets.

3. Energy Costs: Energy is crucial to the economy, and most nations subsidize it. Removing fuel subsidies when the global average for fuel subsidies to GDP is 7.1%, compared to Nigeria's 2%, is illogical. The ratio of all subsidies to government expenditure for over 200 million people is about 25%, which is half the cost of governance enjoyed by just 1% of the population.

4. Local Refining and Electricity: The government's failure to enable local refineries for petrol production and gas for thermal plants should have been addressed with emergency measures. Instead of subsidizing electricity generation and distribution, the government increased electricity costs without significant new investment, thus profiteering on existing stock without boosting productive capacity. High energy costs hinder productivity and employment.

5. Naira Devaluation: Floating the Naira without regulating market speculators and hoarders, in a nation with 90% of its foreign exchange derived from oil and gas, has led to massive devaluation. Government funding should stimulate the economy, not just fund the excessive cost of governance.

6. Foreign Exchange Market Stability: Stability in the foreign exchange market is crucial for domestic price stability and investor confidence. Current policies have led to capital flight, with existing investors not making additional investments and new ones hesitant to enter the market.

7. Import and Debt Misconceptions: Nigeria's import bill is only 16% of GDP, and its debt-to-GDP ratio of 39.8% is below the global acceptable rate of 60%. The main issue is not exporting enough due to theft of crude oil and poor governance. The government’s wastefulness cannot justify punishing the populace with increased taxes.

8. Proper Accounting and Security: The government must ensure accurate accounting of mined resources and strengthen security to protect economic production facilities. Multi-level policing is necessary to secure lives and property, enabling meaningful economic activities.

9. Taxation Policies: The focus on increasing the tax-to-GDP ratio from 6.7% to 18% is misguided. The informal sector, which provides 90% of employment and 60% of income, will suffer from increased taxes without corresponding government social benefits. The current taxation mindset disproportionately affects the poor.

10. Long-term Economic Vision: The administration lacks a vision for long-term economic growth that could provide high-paying jobs. Investing in infrastructure, such as railways, would have significant multiplier effects on the economy, unlike the current emphasis on expensive projects like the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway.

11. Short-term Revenue Solutions: The government must address low revenue by ensuring accountability of oil revenues and investigating the utilization of foreign debts, which rose significantly under the APC with no substantial infrastructure improvement.

At the end of Tinubu's first year, the question remains whether the continued economic stagnation is due to corruption or incompetence. From failing to mine and refine crude oil to unjustified loans and high governance costs, the people bear the consequences. This "monkey work, baboon chop" economic policy must end to prevent further damage to Nigeria's sociopolitical fabric.

Signed:

Justice Faloye,

Publicity Secretary, Afenifere