African lawmakers and observers should not be surprised that Kenya, one of the region’s most stable democracies, has erupted in deadly “cost of living” protests. They should be asking why it has taken so long for them to happen, and where on the continent the next explosion could take place.
At the core of these demonstrations is the fact that too many Africans have reached a stage where they are barely able to survive on their meager earnings and are ready to strike out at leaders seen as corrupt, uncaring and out of touch with the reality of ordinary people’s struggles.
At least 23 people were killed in widespread protests after President William Ruto’s government tried to proceed with a controversial finance bill that would introduce a tax on internet data, fuel, bank transfers, eggs, sanitary napkins and disposable diapers, and numerous other services. Ruto has now withdrawn the bill.
Only arrogance could have made Ruto and his colleagues fail to see the unrest coming. In July 2023, six people died in anti-government protests following the passing of tax reforms in the “Kenya Finance Bill 2023.” Over the past year, social media chatter has indicated opposition to any austerity measures. How a different outcome was expected just a year later boggles the mind.
Ruto’s finance bill was aimed at cutting the country’s budget deficit and borrowing. Many other African countries face similar challenges of high debt and poor revenue while pressure for infrastructural development and social welfare programs intensifies. For political leaders, it’s worth remembering that in March 2023 South Africa’s radical Economic Freedom Fighters party led cost-of-living marches across the country while its associates and other opposition leaders led similar marches in Kenya, Nigeria and Tunisia. South Africa’s army was deployed to keep a lid on those demonstrations. In Liberia, the cost-of-living crisis — accompanied by protests over more than a year — led to the electoral defeat of George Weah, the previous president, last October.
Many African economies have shown little or no growth since the Covid-19 pandemic; meanwhile youth unemployment is at record levels, inflation has exploded, and corruption and conspicuous consumption by political elites is a major area of discontent.
Take Nigeria, where the naira’s value dropped 70% against the US dollar in the past year. The country’s inflation rate climbed to a 28-year high in May, with consumer prices rising an annual 33.95%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. In March, food trucks were attacked and seven people killed in a stampede to get rice.
South Africa, like Kenya, faces crippling national debt (74% debt-to-GDP ratio), a weakening currency, and significant increases in the cost of living. Youth unemployment has averaged 56% in the decade between 2013 and 2024, while wealth inequality is consistently among the highest in the world.
Youth dissatisfaction is particularly important. Kenya’s revolt is not led by Raila Odinga, the opposition leader, as happened last year, but by a disparate grouping of social media-savvy young people organizing on TikTok and other platforms. The 2020 #EndSARS protests in Nigeria against the police were fueled by youth anger and fueled by social media. Tactics driving Kenya’s “7 Days of Rage” this week are similar, but more sophisticated. At least 12 influencers and bloggers have been arrested or have disappeared, raising concerns of a government clampdown on influencers. Internet connectivity was throttled.
Kenya’s president Ruto has called the protests “treasonous” and described them as an “existential threat.” He is wrong. The people on the streets of Nairobi and virtually every town and city in Kenya are patriots driven to the edge of starvation. They see no creative solutions by politicians to their suffering except swingeing austerity measures. This is a cry for help, and it is emanating from communities across the continent. Leaders can opt to brand protesters as traitors, or find ways to resolve the real threat for the continent — rampant price increases.
Leaders need to be believable and relatable. Part of the crisis in Kenya is that Ruto has been accused numerous times of living the high life, including hiring private jets to fly overseas and flashing expensive watches, while life for the poorest in his country has become precarious. Even though the president is correct in wanting to slash debt, poor Kenyans are more likely to buy the story that it will all be funneled to corrupt politicians’ pockets.
Such skepticism is what one hears increasingly in Johannesburg, Lagos and other capitals. The events in Kenya this week should serve as a cautionary tale for leaders elsewhere not to try and ram through political and economic programs that are not balanced with deep reflection about their impact on the young and the poor.
Bloomberg
