Immediarely preceding this piece are the summaries for the Nigerian Presidential election results for 2007, 2011 and 2015. In the absence of pertinent data, politics in Nigeria is often reduced to tall tales and decorated half-truths. Bola Tinubu's ventilations at Abeokuta fully exemplified this.
While Tinubu was arrogantly boasting at Abeokuta, lost on him was the irony that Buhari was not the only one who had suffered defeat in previous Presidential elections.
In 2007, Buhari very significantly outperformed the combination of Tinubu and Atiku. In fact, despite the fact that Buhari spent very little money, Buhari garnered over 6 million votes while the combined political forces of Tinubu with Atiku garnered less than 3 million votes!
Four years later in 2011, Tinubu gave his much vaunted political clout to Nuhu Ribadu. This time, Buhari garnered about 12 million votes while Ribadu, with the full wind of Tinubu behind him got about 2 million votes.
For God's sake by what Arithmetic, Algebraic or Calculus model should Tinubu be given more credit than Buhari for the victory of APC in 2015? Do the figures matter? What is all this nonsense about a Midas touch being attributed to Bola Tinubu in Presidenrial electoral contests?
I try to laugh in Yoruba, but Oduduwa prevents the laughter from coming. The progenitor insists that we must leave the ridiculous for the sublime!
It is true that a synergy of Buhari with the ACN yielded victory for Buhari in 2015. But have we forgotten so soon that the APC was far more than a coalescence of two parties? Did the APC not include a sizeable portion of the PDP? In any case, does the credit go to Tinubu alone? The tragedy of half-truths rarely resides in the profligacy of their falsehood; it always resides in the subtle but very toxic diffraction of truth. What are the salient facts?
Buhari lost the Presidential election in 2003, 2007 and 2007. Aisha Buhari has been quoted as saying that electoral victory eluded her husband until he collaborated with Tinubu. Very correct! But Aisha Buhari forgot to remind us that the record of losses for Bola Tinubu's party is worse, going further back to 1999! If Tinubu's magic failed to foster success with Olu Falae, Atiku Abukakar and Nuhu Ribadu, why does he arrogate the APC sucess in 2015 principally to himself?
The fact of Nigeria's electoral history remains that in every election in which Buhari participated against Tinubu's party, Buhari's party left Tinubu's party reeling in the dust with a victory margin of ratio 2 to 1 in 2007 and more than 4 to 1 in 2011. When the Yorubas say _kí ni làlà koko fẹ̀nfẹ̀_, they mean the same as when the Americans ask "where is the beef"?!
Here is a sombre reality check for all of us. Members of any ethnicity cannot, by themselves alone, win the Nigerian Presidency. Buhari learnt that lesson. Tinubu must get down from his high horse to learn the same.
I listened most carefully to Senator Shettima's credit to Tinubu's contribution to the success of Buhari. He simply was looking at one side of a coin! The evidence is incontrovertible that Buhari easily won the highest vote in 2015. The ACN contributed the requirement of geographical spread. Presidency is won by scoring the highest votes plus having 25% of the votes in 24 States. Buhari had 25% in 26 states. If you subtract the six Southwest states, Buhari still had 25% in 20 states. In other words, the ACN wing of APC was needed only to contribute 25% in four SW states.
Does Tinubu alone get the credit for all those? In the absence of Tinubu, might a combination of Bisi Akande, Lagun Oyinlola, Isiaka Adeleke and Rauf Aregbesola not have garnered 25% of Osun States in 2015? Without Tinubu, did Ajimobi not get far more than 25% of Oyo votes in 2007 when he did not use Tinubu's party to seek a Gubernatorial mandate? Ajimobi by far outperformed Tinubu's party in Oyo State that year. Without Tinubu, Amosun came second in Ogun in 2007. He outperformed Tinubu's party in Ogun!
When the Yorubas say that “Ẹnìkan kii jẹ́ awa dé” they reckon that the success of a collective effort must not be attributed to just one individual.
Lastly, Olusegun Obasanjo conclusively showed in 1999 that a Yoruba could be elected President despite being defeated in Yoruba States. Much earlier, Awolowo conversely showed that an overwhelming victory in Yorùbá states does not guarantee victory in a coutry-wide Presidential contestation.
- Adeyeye, a retired professor of history, is a former senator