An accident waiting to happen? Perhaps. What is certain is that unless a quick resolution is found, the Aregbesola-Tinubu fall-out will deliver industrial-scale carnage. Hints of that have already manifested, with Aregbesola peeling off his dansiki or agbada, so to speak, to launch the first public offensive via a stream of words that cannot be filed under praise and worship.
The riposte to that, as claimed by those in Osun, particularly Aregbesola partisans, was a rain of bullets on the Interior Minister's convoy. This feels different, very different, because Bola Tinubu and Aregbesola, publicly at least, have always sung from the same hymn sheet. They know each other so well and I presume will be familiar with the menace each side carries. It will be make for gripping viewing; pure box office. Allegations, of the debilitating variety, will be swapped on daily basis and we most likely will hear some of the things they'd done together.
The trophy, of course, is the Osun Governor's seat currently occupied by Gboyega Oyetola, Tinubu's nephew. The incumbent, Chief of Staff to Aregbesola in the latter's days as governor, is known to have taken a digger and hammer to his predecessor's policies/legacies in near-total repudiation of those things he was part of. It is no ideological war or one for bettering the lives of the traumatized people of the state.
This will hit differently for Tinubu. He may have dealt, successfully, with loyal lieutenants freeing themselves from what they view as his chokehold, but I don't think those ones had the profile of wiry and goateed former governor. Notably, he has the distraction of his presidential bid, which is inviting as much support as derision, the latter on account of being perceived as doddering and feeble with critics also alleging brittle bladder and rectal health.
But he is a battle-hardened politician. Is he bullet-proof? We'll see. Aregbesola is no slouch. He's been around the turf, learning, designing and/or abetting the chicanery that has made Tinubu a juggernaut, the reason I find his rejection of godfatherism an unfunny joke.
The run-in to the APC governorship primaries, with the estranged allies backing different horses, will put bums on seats and lift them off like a real cup final. Those invested in either of the sides are sure to develop the oral compulsive habit of biting their nails down to the cuticles. Those who don't are just going to watch for thrills and materials to discuss over beer and pepper soup.
