WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine battles to shape 'starting positions' for any war talks after Trump return

As Donald Trump's election win brings the prospect of talks to end Russia's war in Ukraine closer, Kyiv is battling to put itself in the strongest position for any negotiations, including by securing more arms and holding out on the battlefield.

A senior Ukrainian official said the next four to five months would be pivotal, signalling how Trump's return to the White House is focusing minds in Kyiv on a possible end game in the war. Trump, who will be sworn in as U.S. president on Jan. 20, has said he will end the war quickly but has not said how.

"This winter is a critical point ... I hope the war is drawing to an end. Right now we will define the positions for both sides on negotiations, the starting positions," the official told Reuters, requesting anonymity to discuss sensitive security issues.

Officials are waiting to see who Trump picks for his top security and defence jobs for clues on how he will shape Ukraine policy. He has ruled out ex-secretary of state Mike Pompeo, seen in Kyiv as pro-Ukrainian.

Russia is advancing at its fastest rate since 2022 despite taking heavy losses, and Ukraine said last week it had clashed with some of an estimated 11,000 North Korean troops deployed to Russia's Kursk region.

Stretched by manpower shortages, Ukrainian forces have lost some of the ground they captured in an August incursion into Kursk that President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said could serve as a bargaining chip.

Ukraine's hobbled energy system is keeping the lights on for now as winter sets in, but the threat of another big Russian attack on the grid remains.

Drones attack Kyiv almost nightly although Russia may not want to alienate the incoming Trump team by destroying the system.

After holding what he said was an "excellent" phone call with Trump late on Wednesday, Zelenskiy said the next day that he was convinced a rapid end to the war would mean Kyiv accepting big concessions.

"If it's just fast, it means losses for Ukraine. I just don't yet understand how this could be in any other way. Maybe we do not know something, do not see," Zelenskiy said.

He also criticised talk of a ceasefire without Ukraine first receiving robust security guarantees that would prevent Russia launching an even bigger offensive later on.

"It's a very scary challenge for our citizens: first a ceasefire, then we'll see. Who are you? Are your children dying?" Zelenskiy said in comments apparently aimed at Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who had proposed a ceasefire.

BLEAK MOOD

The Kyiv official said it felt "less likely" after Trump's victory that there would be a NATO invitation for Ukraine and acknowledged there was a risk Trump would scale back aid.

"I hope the Biden administration will try to avoid this risk by accelerating the speed of (its) help," the official said.

The Kremlin said on Friday that President Vladimir Putin was ready to discuss Ukraine with Trump, but that this did not mean Moscow's war demands had changed.

Putin set out his terms for an end to the war in June: Ukraine would have to drop its NATO ambitions and withdraw its troops from all of the territory of four regions claimed by Russia, something Kyiv sees as akin to capitulation.

Ukraine's public is sceptical Russia is interested in talks, but its central demand if they happen is for Ukraine to receive proper security guarantees, said Anton Grushetskyi, executive director of the KIIS pollster.

Ukrainians leaned towards wanting Democrat Kamala Harris to win the election, but frustration at the reluctance of outgoing President Joe Biden's administration to increase support meant they were increasingly open to a gamble on Trump, he said.

"People are very disappointed that behind the very strong words of the Biden administration the real steps were much weaker, especially over the last year," he said.

Trying to strengthen his hand in September, Zelenskiy outlined a "victory plan" to Biden, reiterating his request for permission to strike military targets deeper in Russia, receive a NATO invitation and obtain more potent weapons.

The plan, he said, was needed to compel Russia to the negotiating table in good faith. There has been little sign of a breakthrough on any of the plan's five points.

"The mood in Ukraine is pretty bleak. You can see the increasing frustration in Zelenskiy's recent remarks," a senior Kyiv-based diplomatic source said.

The Ukrainian official voiced scepticism that Biden would supply something significant to Ukraine, such as lifting the restriction on long-range strikes.

"Who is Biden now? He lost a lot of credibility. I hope he will be brave enough to do something. But I don't have big hopes. It would be great. We are very grateful for his help. He did a lot, much more than we expected," the official said.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Witnesses describe alleged Ukrainian war crimes in Donbass city

Ukrainian troops were given carte blanche to harass and commit crimes against the Russian-speaking population in the southern Donbass city of Ugledar, a Moscow-backed investigative mission has alleged.

Human rights defender Maksim Grigoriev, who chairs an international body investigating suspected crimes of the Ukrainian government, previewed on Monday a new report which focuses on the events in Ugledar. Russian troops liberated the town in early October, allowing civilian access to its remaining residents.

Witnesses said they had faced mistreatment since the armed coup in Kiev in 2014. One woman explained how she could not receive justice for her son, who was killed in a fight with a Ukrainian volunteer battalion member in 2016.

The woman said her son had been a large, strong man who had been stabbed to death after trying to defend local girls from a group of drunken troops from the Aidar unit. The criminal case was clear-cut and resulted in a conviction, but the sentence allowed the killer to be released on parole, Grigoriev said. The perpetrator reportedly did not see the inside of a prison cell.

The case exemplified the bias against the Russian-speaking population which was facilitated by the government in Kiev, the investigator said. It also helps explain the scale of criminality which Ugledar residents have endured in recent years amid open hostility between Russia and Ukraine, he added.

Among other things, the Ukrainian military had a strategy of forcing people out of the city by shelling it and claiming that the attacks were coming from the Russian side, Grigoriev said. Some residents said they personally saw such attacks.

“The [town’s] mayor reported in 2022 that there was nobody here, even though there were some 3,000 people left,” one witness said. “They [Ukrainian troops] were riding outside of Ugledar… and firing at it with mortars to incite panic and make people leave as fast as possible.”

Another man said he witnessed a foreign reporter on a guided tour. It came during a lull, so a Ukrainian soldier accompanying the woman gave an order on his radio: “It’s too quiet, make some noise.” Firing started immediately, scaring the journalist and causing her to run for her life, the man recalled.

Ugledar was subjected to “total looting” by the Ukrainians, Grigoriev claimed. Some homes were stripped down, with faucets, electric sockets and even wall tiling taken by marauders, according to witnesses.

Stolen goods were allegedly moved to other places and sold, sometimes marketed as “goods from Donbass” – a euphemism to designate their criminal origin.

Reuters/RT