Wednesday, 13 December 2023 04:33

With 10 short words, Warren Buffett explains the simple success strategy most people never notice

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They call him the Oracle of Omaha, and sure enough, thousands descended on the Cornhusker State to hear what Warren Buffett had to say at the annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting.

There's a lot to pull out of it, but Buffett, 92, has a way with words sometimes, and when he was asked at one point what the future looks like for investors, he had such a pithy answer that I think people will be repeating it among his other Buffett-isms for a while to come.

Are we running out of opportunities?

The exchange went like this:

  • Buffett was asked about the rise of disruptive technologies and productivity, along with how it might affect investor strategy.
  • Buffett's second-in-command, Charlie Munger, 99, jumped in to answer, with a fairly pessimistic answer – basically that since there are so many value investors out there that they're each going to have to be satisfied with a smaller piece of the pie: "Get used to making less."
  • Then, Buffett got his say, and he disagreed a bit with Munger.

Keep in mind, they were talking about value investing here, but I think the comments Buffett offered cover more than that. Here's part of what he had to say:

"I would argue that that's going to be plenty of opportunities. ... [T]ech doesn't make any difference. ...

What gives you opportunities, is other people doing dumb things. And I would say that while the 58 years we've been running Berkshire, I would say there's been a great increase in the number of people doing dumb things."

"What gives you opportunity is other people doing dumb things"

I love this 10-word quote. Again, Buffett was answering in the context of investing, and he used the example of companies being motivated by short-term thinking that attracts investment and pumps up share price, as opposed to long-term thinking that actually creates value.

"I mean, that is a world made to order for anybody that's trying to think about what you do that work over five or 10 or 20 years," he added.

But, this advice really does make sense in so many other areas in business and in life. Maybe we want to be a little bit nicer and not refer to other people's decisions as "dumb," and instead, "limiting decisions," but the idea is the same.

When you start looking at things that way, you can see that letting other people do the hard parts and the pioneering – so that you can pick up on what they've done, and do more – is a really great way to look for opportunities.

A few examples – two business, one in another part of life, just to illustrate:

  • You see a competitor that has done a very good job of catering to the budget buyer in your industry, but that makes it hard – or maybe just too much work – to cater to higher end customers. Their limiting decision; your opportunity.
  • You're an employee of a local firm, and your boss turns down your idea of building a social media and review strategy to get more clients. You think it's just a matter of complacency. Could you go out on your own, or to a competing firm, and put your idea into practice? Their limiting decision; your opportunity.
  • You're playing in a recreational soccer league, but there are so many good players that it's hard to get time on the field, and the coaches or organizers don't want to change. Could you attract some other teammates and form a new team? Their limiting decision; your opportunity.

Pretty good opportunities

It feels widely applicable, doesn't it? 

Of course Buffett also spoke about a few other things, like the state of Berkshire Hathaway, which reported net income of $35.5 billion for the first quarter, up from $5.58 billion last year. So that's a good amount of opportunity, and it's a number people will focus on in the short-term.

It's the pithy long-term thinking that winds up being remembered years later.

Bottom line: It's OK to do dumb things sometimes. Just pay attention to the opportunities you can see when other people do dumb things, too.

 

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