WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Russia warns ships in Black Sea, Ukraine to create temporary grains export route

Russia warned that ships sailing to Ukraine's Black Sea ports from Thursday will be seen as potential military targets, days after its withdrawal from a safe-passage deal that threatens to worsen global food supplies.

Ukraine said on Wednesday it was establishing a temporary shipping route via Romania, one of the neighbouring Black Sea countries.

"Its goal is to facilitate the unblocking of international shipping in the north-western part of the Black Sea," Vasyl Shkurakov, Ukraine's acting minister for communities, territories and infrastructure development, said in a letter to U.N. shipping agency, the International Shipping Organization.

The year-old pact brokered by the United Nations and Turkey to provide safe passage for cargo ships from the war zone ended after Russia's withdrawal on Monday. The last ship left Ukraine on Sunday.

Ukraine and Russia are among the world's top grain exporters. U.S. wheat futures jumped 8.5% on Wednesday, their biggest daily gain since days after Russia's Feb. 24, 2022, invasion of Ukraine.

Russia's Defence Ministry said flag states of ships travelling to Ukrainian ports would be considered parties to the conflict on the Ukrainian side from midnight Moscow time (2100 GMT on Wednesday).

Russia attacked the Odesa region on Monday and Tuesday nights. Grains terminals and an industrial facility, warehouses, shopping malls, residential and administrative buildings and cars were damaged on Tuesday night, Ukrainian officials said.

Ukraine's southern military command said Russia had used supersonic missiles, including the Kh-22 that was designed to take out aircraft carriers, to hit Odesa's port infrastructure.

The Odesa region's three ports were the only ones operating in Ukraine during the war under the grain deal that allowed Ukrainian grain exports safely through a Russian blockade of ports.

"In the ports that were attacked there was about a million tonnes of food stored," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in his nightly address on Wednesday. "It is precisely that amount that should already have been delivered to consumer countries in Africa and Asia.

"In the terminal damaged the most from Russian terror tonight, 60,000 tonnes of agricultural products were stored, intended for shipment to China," he said.

U.S. officials have information indicating Russia laid additional sea mines in the approaches to Ukrainian ports, said White House National Security Council spokesperson Adam Hodge.

"We believe that this is a coordinated effort to justify any attacks against civilian ships in the Black Sea and lay blame on Ukraine for these attacks," he said.

There was no immediate response from Russia on the U.S. assertion.

Russian President Vladimir Putin accused Western countries of "perverting" the U.N.-backed deal formally called the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

The International Monetary Fund on Wednesday said Russia's exit from the deal threatens to worsen global food insecurity and could increase food prices, especially in poor countries.

Putin said Russia would immediately return to the pact if all its conditions for doing so were met for rules to be eased for its own exports of food and fertiliser. Western countries call that an attempt to use leverage over food supplies to force a weakening in financial sanctions, which still allow Russia to sell food.

NO LETUP IN FIGHTING

Ukrainian officials reported no letup in fighting in areas of eastern and southern Ukraine where the army is pressing on with a counteroffensive it began in June to try to reclaim territory occupied by Russian forces. The Russians have dug into a heavily-fortified front line.

Valery Shershen, spokesperson for the southern front, told national television that Ukrainian forces advanced in two areas in order to reach ports on the Sea of Azov and sever the land bridge created by Russian forces between the east and Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula annexed by Moscow in 2014.

Reuters could not independently verify the battlefield reports of either side.

In Washington, the Pentagon announced additional security assistance for Ukraine, totalling about $1.3 billion, with the package including air defence capabilities and munitions.

In Brussels, European Union foreign ministers are expected to discuss a proposal on Thursday to spend up to 20 billion euros ($22.4 billion) on weapons, ammunition and other military aid for Ukraine over four years.

** Fire at military base in Crimea forces evacuation of more than 2,000

A fire that broke out at the military training grounds in the Kirovske district on the Crimean Peninsula has forced the evacuation of more than 2,000 people and a closure of nearby highway, the Moscow-backed governor of Crimea said on Wednesday.

"It is planned to temporarily evacuate residents of four settlements - this is more than 2,000 people," Russian-installed Governor Sergei Aksyonov of Crimea said on the Telegram messaging app.

There was no reason given for the fire, which also forced the partial closure of the major Tavridy Highway.

Russia's Telegram channels linked to Russian security services and Ukrainian media reported that an ammunition depot was on fire at the base after Ukrainian overnight air attack.

Reuters could not independently verify the reports. There was no immediate comment from Ukraine.

Serhiy Bratchuk, spokesperson for the Odesa military administration in Ukraine posted two videos of a fire in an uninhabited area, saying, "Enemy ammunition depot. Staryi Krym."

Staryi Krym is a small historical town in the Kirovske district of Crimea. Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine in 2014.

Social media videos and photos showed big flames and a smoky fire in an uninhabited area, broken by series of detonations. Some Telegram channels said that by 0730 local time (0430 GMT), the fire was going on for about three hours, still not being contained.

The fire comes two days after a blast damaged a bridge linking Russia to the Crimean Peninsula on Monday that Moscow blamed on Ukraine and for which President Vladimir Putin vowed retaliation.

Overnight, Russia launched an air attack on the Ukrainian port of Odesa for a second night in row. Ukraine's military also said that a drone attack at Kyiv was successfully repelled early on Wednesday.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Failure of Ukraine's counteroffensive may lead to West's 'devastating defeat' — UK expert

The Kiev government, backed by the West may, be forced to agree to make territorial concessions to Russia, which would mean their "devastating defeat," an expert of the London-based Civitas think tank, Robert Clark, wrote in an opinion piece for The Daily Telegraph.

"If Kiev fails in its battlefield endeavors to split that land bridge, and retake much of its own territory by winter, then vocal calls of territorial concessions for marginal political outcomes will likely become far more prevalent - not just in Ukraine but likely from western capitals, as so-called "war-fatigue" begins to bite, international stockpiles of equipment and ammunition wither and politicians begin to worry about domestic budgets ahead of national elections," Clark said, adding that "governments across the west must be prepared for the grim prospect of territorial concessions."

In his opinion, the "long-planned counter-offensive, now in its second month, has run into several problems - not least that Kiev is still waiting for approximately half of the western military equipment promised earlier in the year."

"It is incredibly tough going for the Ukrainians," the expert continued. "This grueling endeavor was always going to take longer than the occasionally impatient international audience was prepared to wait for."

The analyst added that "the variable that isn’t on their [Ukrainian] side is time."

"The fighting will begin to grind to a cold halt as the freezing winter saps troops’ ability to conduct high-intensity warfare. This will only give Russia more time to further build up its defences, as it did last winter," Clark wrote. "By this point in the West, meanwhile, all eyes will be on the upcoming US election, with more political attention diverted by the UK’s general election. Kiev knows it has a shortened window of opportunity to capitalize on its battlefield initiative and take back as much ground as it can."

** Defense firm delivers new batch of T-90M, T-72B3M main battle tanks to Russian troops

The Uralvagonzavod defense manufacturer (part of the state tech corporation Rostec) delivered a new batch of advanced T-90M Proryv (Breakthrough) and upgraded T-72B3M main battle tanks to Russian troops, the Industry and Trade Ministry announced on Tuesday.

"Defense enterprises timely meet the needs of our Armed Forces for advanced and reliable hardware. This work is controlled by the Russian Government’s Coordination Council. Enterprises have gained a good pace. In particular, Uralvagonzavod has boosted output more than threefold over the past year and has now delivered the next batch of T-90M Proryv and upgraded T-72B3M tanks to Russian troops. This armor is especially in demand in fulfilling objectives in the zone of the special military operation," the statement reads.

Uralvagonzavod qualitatively and timely fulfils the tasks set by the state in providing the army with reliable military hardware, Uralvagonzavod CEO Alexander Potapov said.

"This is proven by invariably good assessments of Uralvagonzavod’s armor given by the military participating in the special military operation," the chief executive said.

T-72B3M and T-90M Proryv main battle tanks

The upgraded T-72B3M tank features new protection that considerably enhances its survivability and the efficiency of employing this armor both in a combined arms battle and in a combat environment with the massive use of anti-tank weapons.

The upgraded T-72B3 tank is also outfitted with a new fire control system that features an automatic process of preparations for fire and considerably raises fire accuracy. The tank is equipped with a 1,000 hp high-power engine.

The T-72B3M is an upgraded version of the T-72B3 tank that has received a new sight system with a digital display and a rear view video camera. The tank’s armor has been reinforced with Relikt reactive armor side plates. The tank has also received a new 125mm cannon with the enhanced barrel life, a new R-168-25U-2 Akveduk ultra-short-wave radio station, new fire-fighting equipment and a Sosna-U multi-channel gunner sight.

The T-90M Proryv is the most advanced armored vehicle in the family of T-90 main battle tanks and most of all fit for modern warfare thanks to its all-round armor protection, top-notch all-weather highly automated fire control and enhanced survivability.

The tank has received a fundamentally new turret differing from the serial-produced combat module and a more powerful 1,130 hp engine. The Proryv is outfitted with a 125mm tank cannon that can fire new powerful munitions and also missiles capable of wiping out enemy tanks from a range of 5 km.

The new multichannel sight enables the tank to employ its armaments at any time of the day or night. In addition, the option of exchanging data with other combat vehicles in real time has been one of the upgraded tank’s major advantages.

Reuters/Tass