WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Russian general Surovikin was sympathetic towards Wagner rebellion, US officials say

General Sergei Surovikin, deputy commander of Russia's military operations in Ukraine, was sympathetic to mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin's weekend rebellion, U.S. officials said on Wednesday, though it was unclear if he actively supported it.

Prigozhin startled the world by leading an armed revolt on Saturday that brought his Wagner Group fighters from the Ukrainian border to within 200 kilometers (125 miles) of Moscow before he abruptly called off the uprising.

Three officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that Surovikin had been in support of Prigozhin but Western intelligence did not know with certainty if he had helped the rebellion in any way.

As the rebellion began, Surovikin publicly urged fighters of the Wagner private militia to give up their opposition to the military leadership and return to their bases.

"I urge you to stop," Surovikin had said in a video posted on Telegram messaging app, his right hand resting on a rifle.

The New York Times reported on Tuesday that Surovikin had advance knowledge that Prigozhin was planning a rebellion.

The Kremlin, asked on Wednesday about the report, said there would be "a lot of speculation" in the aftermath of the events.

Surovikin, nicknamed "General Armageddon" by the Russian media for his reputed ruthlessness, is a veteran of wars in Chechnya and Syria who has been decorated by President Vladimir Putin.

In October, Surovikin was put in charge of the military campaign in Ukraine but was moved into a deputy role earlier this year after Russia's limited success in the invasion.

Prigozhin, a one-time Putin ally, in recent months has carried out an increasingly bitter feud with Moscow, including publicly saying his troops were not being provided enough weapons by the Russian ministry of defense.

U.S. officials and Western officials said Prigozhin had been stockpiling weaponry ahead of the mutiny attempt. The U.S. officials suggested he must have believed he had enough firepower and sympathy within the Russian military to carry out his uprising.

Still, a Western diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Prigozhin ultimately miscalculated by believing that his loyalty to Putin, his usefulness to the Kremlin and his support among Russian military officials would be enough to insulate him from consequences.

Putin initially vowed to crush the mutiny, comparing it to the wartime turmoil that ushered in the revolutions of 1917 and then a civil war, but hours later a deal was clinched to allow Prigozhin and some of his fighters to go to Belarus.

**EU leaders to debate Russia mutiny, pledge support for Ukraine

European Union leaders will on Thursday debate the repercussions of the aborted mutiny in Russia as they pledge further support for Ukraine in its war against Moscow's invasion.

At a summit in Brussels, the leaders will also talk with NATO boss Jens Stoltenberg and discuss what role the EU could play in Western commitments to bolster Ukraine's security.

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said the leaders were certain to discuss Saturday's dramatic abandoned mutiny by the Wagner mercenary group, even though it is not on the agenda of the summit or mentioned in drafts of its written conclusions.

"It will definitely come up," she told reporters in Brussels on the eve of the two-day summit, a regular gathering that will also discuss migration, relations with China and other issues.

Like several other EU leaders, Kallas said the mutiny showed cracks appearing in Russia's leadership. She said she had seen different views on how the mutiny could affect the Ukraine war and the risk Russia poses to the West.

The West should not be swayed and continue to support Ukraine and bolster its own defences, Kallas said.

Charles Michel, the president of the European Council of EU leaders, struck a similar note.

"Ever more in these circumstances, we will reassert our commitment to support Ukraine for as long as it takes, including through sustainable financial and military assistance," he wrote in a letter inviting leaders to the summit.

SECURITY PACKAGE

The nature of that assistance will also be on the table in Brussels as Western countries work on a package of long-term assurances to provide weapons, equipment, ammunition, training and other military aid to Kyiv.

A draft of the summit conclusions said EU countries were ready to contribute to future security commitments to Ukraine, to "help Ukraine defend itself in the long term, deter acts of aggression and resist destabilisation efforts."

Diplomats said the text had been proposed by France, a champion of a greater military and security role for the EU.

Diplomats from some countries said they wanted more details and were concerned the idea may conflict with efforts involving the United States and NATO on long-term commitments to Ukraine.

“There are many questions for many member states,” said a diplomat from one EU country.

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Countries including the U.S., Britain, France and Germany are discussing such measures ahead of a NATO summit next month in Vilnius, Lithuania, where Ukraine's long-term security will be a major theme.

France has insisted any EU contribution would dovetail with those made by others and build on existing EU initiatives.

These include the European Peace Facility, a fund that reimburses EU members for military donations to Kyiv, and a training mission for Ukrainian soldiers.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Only 11% of Russians back call to use nuclear weapons – survey

The absolute majority of people in Russia oppose the idea of Moscow using nuclear weapons against Ukraine in the ongoing conflict, according to a fresh poll conducted by the media outlet RTVI and the Russian Field polling agency. Almost three quarters of respondents (74%) said that a nuclear option is “unacceptable” regardless of the situation on the battlefield, RTVI reported on Wednesday.

Only 10% of Russians said the use of nuclear weapons was “acceptable” at any moment, while another 5% said such a step could only be made in the face of a real risk of defeat. Some five percent of respondents provided no clear answer to this question.

Men, middle-aged and older Russians appeared to be more supportive of a nuclear option, according to the survey. Respondents with higher education and those perceiving the ongoing conflict as a potential threat to their personal security tend to oppose it.

Meanwhile, a majority of Russians expressed their readiness to aid the Russian forces fighting on the frontlines. According to the survey, 61% of respondents said they were ready to do so and almost 40% told the surveyors they had already provided some aid to the military at least once, through various aid and support programs. Almost 30% also collected clothes and various useful items for the soldiers.

The issue of a potential nuclear strike has briefly come into the spotlight in Russia after political scientist Sergey Karaganov raised such a possibility in an opinion piece.

In the article titled ‘A Difficult But Necessary Decision’, Karaganov argued that Russia could escalate to using nuclear weapons against European countries supporting Ukraine, in order to force the US and its allies to back off from a wider conflict with Russia and thus prevent a global nuclear war and World War 3.

In mid-June, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that even discussing of the issue lowers the threshold for a potential nuclear arms use. Under the current official doctrine, Russia will only utilize its atomic arsenal if faced with an existential threat, the president said at that time, adding that he also did not believe in using tactical, low-yield nuclear weapons as a deterrent.

** Russian Battlegroup Center hits eight area of concentration of Ukrainian troops

Warplanes of Russia’s Battlegroup Center delivered airstrikes on eight areas of the deployment of Ukrainian troops and artillery, the battlegroup’s spokesman Alexander Savchuk told TASS on Thursday.

"Su-25 fighter jets of the Battlegroup Center delivered rocket strikes on eight areas where Ukrainian manpower and artillery were concentrated. Apart from that, crews of Su-34 warplanes delivered strikes on two enemy centers of temporary deployment, one stronghold, and a communications point," he said.

According to the spokesman, a Fury drone was shot down from a Tor-M1 air defense system in the Krasny Liman area. Apart from that, in his words, the enemy artillery and mortar positions were hit by Russian forces in the course of counterbattery activities. "Enemy armored combat vehicles, an armored infantry carrier and five pickup trucks, as well as manpower were hit by artillery," Savchuk said.

Reuters/RT/Tass