WESTERN PERSPECTIVE
US general cautions against writing Russia's army off in Ukraine: 'It is bigger today than it was at the beginning of the conflict'
A top US general has issued a warning that despite significant losses in Ukraine, Russia's ground forces are bigger than they were at the start of the 2022 invasion, a sobering assessment of the country's military capabilities.
"The Russian ground force has been degenerated somewhat by this conflict, although it is bigger today than it was at the beginning of the conflict," Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the commander of US European Command, told the House Armed Services Committee on Wednesday.
"The air force has lost very little. They've lost 80 planes — they have another 1,000 fighters and fighter-bombers. The Navy has lost one ship," he added.
Earlier in the hearing, Cavoli said: "Much of the Russian military has not been affected negatively by this conflict."
He added that its undersea forces were increasingly emboldened in the Atlantic.
Russia has also continued to combine this military power with cyberattacks and manipulation of the global energy supply, Cavoli said.
Estimates in a US military-intelligence leak earlier this month indicated that more than twice as many Russians had been killed in the conflict as Ukrainians — up to 43,000, compared with up to 17,500.
The date of that assessment is unclear, and Insider is unable to confirm the accuracy of the numbers, which are lower than previous assessments by the Center for Strategic and International Studies and UK military intelligence.
A February assessment by the International Institute for Strategic Studies said Russia had lost about 40% of its prewar stock of battle tanks, while a report in The Economist suggested that its demand for tanks was outstripping its ability to replenish them by a factor of 10.
Cavoli also told US lawmakers that "staying the course" in terms of support for Ukraine was "very important," adding that the US had delivered enough weapons for an anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive to be carried out.
In December, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu signaled that he wanted to grow the Russian armed forces to 1.5 million personnel in 2023, including 695,000 contract soldiers, the Russian news outlet RBC reported.
Since the start of this year, the Kremlin has moved to make conscription less easy to avoid, with many Russians awaiting an expected second mobilization.
** NATO: Ukraine allies sent 1,550 combat vehicles, 230 tanks
NATO allies and partner countries have delivered more than 98% of the combat vehicles promised to Ukraine during Russia’s invasion and war, the military alliance’s chief said Thursday, giving Kyiv a bigger punch as it contemplates launching a counteroffensive.
Along with more than 1,550 armored vehicles, 230 tanks and other equipment, Ukraine’s allies have sent “vast amounts of ammunition” and also trained and equipped more than nine new Ukrainian brigades, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said.
More than 30,000 troops are estimated to make up the new brigades. Some NATO partner countries, such as Sweden and Australia, have also provided armored vehicles.
“This will put Ukraine in a strong position to continue to retake occupied territory,” Stoltenberg told reporters in Brussels.
His comments came a day after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he and Chinese leader Xi Jinping held a “long and meaningful” phone call in their first known contact since Russia’s full-scale invasion more than a year ago.
Though Zelenskyy said he was encouraged by Wednesday’s call and Western officials welcomed Xi’s move, it didn’t appear to improve peace prospects.
Russia and Ukraine are far apart in their terms for peace, and Beijing — while looking to position itself as a global diplomatic power — has refused to criticize Moscow’s invasion. The Chinese government sees Russia as a diplomatic ally in opposing U.S. influence in global affairs, and Xi visited Moscow last month.
Stoltenberg said the 31 NATO allies were committed to shoring up Ukraine’s military, adding that taking back land the Kremlin’s forces occupied would give Kyiv a stronger negotiating position if peace talks occur.
Ukrainian officials said China’s overture was encouraging. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal on Thursday described the call between Xi and Zelenskyy as “very productive.”
“I’m convinced it is a good beginning for our relations in the future,″ Shmyhal said after visiting Pope Francis at the Vatican.
But the Kremlin’s response was lukewarm.
Asked if the call could help end the fighting, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters: “We are ready to welcome anything that could lead to the termination of the conflict in Ukraine and the achievement of all the goals set by Russia.”
Peskov said the conversation between the Chinese and Ukrainian leaders was “the sovereign business of those countries and the issue of their bilateral dialogue.”
With battlefield positions in Ukraine largely static in what’s become a war of attrition, Russian forces have kept up their bombardment of Ukrainian areas, often hitting apartment buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
At least seven civilians were killed and 33 were injured between Wednesday and Thursday, Ukraine’s presidential office said Thursday.
They included one person killed and 23 wounded, including a child, when four Kalibr cruise missiles hit the southern city of Mykolaiv, a regional official said. The governor of Mykolaiv province, Vitalii Kim, said 22 multi-story buildings, 12 private houses and other residential buildings were damaged.
Kalibr missiles are launched from ships or submarines. The ones that hit Mykolaiv were fired from the Black Sea, according to Ukraine’s Operational Command South.
In other developments:
— Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree allowing the deportation from annexed Ukrainian territories of residents who refuse to become Russian citizens. Starting in July of next year, Russia will consider such residents to be foreigners who can be expelled from territory that Russian authorities consider to be Russian. Putin annexed four Ukrainian regions last September, building on his 2014 annexation of Crimea. Many countries have condemned the moves as illegal.
— Putin, who has often dwelt on history and his interpretation of it to advance his policy views, ordered his government on Thursday to prepare public studies about what he calls his “special military operation” in Ukraine. The effort is to include museums, adding to an announcement by one of his ministers that new school textbooks discussing the military operation are to be introduced in September.
— The head of Russia’s mercenary Wagner Group repeated claims that the Russian military is withholding ammunition from his soldiers, who are leading the fight in the eastern city of Bakhmut, the war’s bloodiest battle. In social media posts, Yevgeny Prigozhin said without providing specifics that “a criminal group did not give us ammunition,” forcing his fighters to do whatever they can with a “minimal quantity of ammunition.” Prigozhin claimed ammunition stockpiles are withheld because of “treason” by Russian officials, whom he described as “thugs.”
RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE
Kremlin reacts to ‘Putin drone assassination’ claim
Responding to claims that Ukraine had attempted to assassinate Russian President Vladimir Putin by drone, his spokesman Dmitry Peskov brushed them off on Thursday as “yellow fabrications.”
“No, we are not familiar with these reports,” Peskov told reporters. “There are many such ‘yellow fabrications’ these days. There’s no reason to pay them any mind.”
On Wednesday, the German tabloid Bild published a story titled ‘17 kilos of explosives were supposed to kill Putin’, claiming that the Ukrainian drone that crashed near Moscow on Sunday had targeted the Russian president himself, and that the Russian authorities were trying to cover it up.
Bild quoted Ukrainian activist Yuri Romanenko, who claimed the Ukrainian intelligence sent the drone to target Putin during his visit to the Rudnevo industrial park outside Moscow. The drone allegedly passed through the Russian air defenses undetected and crashed “not far” from the target location. The German outlet described Romanenko as someone with “close ties” to Kiev’s intelligence services.
The crash of the UJ-22 drone on Sunday was widely reported in Russian media, however. The UAV was found in the Bogorodsky district, about 30 kilometers from Moscow’s eastern outskirts and some 20 km from Rudnevo. It had 30 blocks of C4 explosive, about 17 kilograms, on board. Three more drones, all of the smaller quadcopter variety, were discovered near the Russian capital on Monday.
The same day, Ukraine’s propaganda service Euromaidan PR tweeted out a video purporting to show footage of Moscow taken by Ukrainian drones, taking responsibility for the quadcopters and leaving a threatening message, “We are closer than you think.”
The platform’s Community Notes quickly fact-checked the claim, however, revealing that the drone footage actually came from an old YouTube video.
Putin’s planned visit to Rudnevo at some point this week was mentioned by Russian media on Sunday. The president arrived at the industrial park on Thursday, spending over an hour in a meeting with thirty officials and representatives of Russia’s aerospace industry. Putin called drone aviation a field of “critical importance” for economic sovereignty, in which Russia should strive to not merely keep pace with the competition, but be “a step ahead.” He also discussed the importance of mass production of Russian UAVs.
** Russian assault teams capture four urban areas in Artyomovsk
Russian assault teams captured four urban areas in Artyomovsk and paratroopers provided support and immobilized enemy forces on the city’s outskirts over the past day during the special military operation in Ukraine, Defense Ministry Spokesman Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov reported on Thursday.
"In the Donetsk direction, the assault teams captured four areas in the northwestern, western and southwestern parts of the city of Artyomovsk. Airborne Force units are immobilizing the enemy on the city’s northern and southern outskirts and rendering support to the assault teams’ operations," the spokesman said.
Aircraft and artillery of the Russian battlegroup South struck the Ukrainian army units in areas near the settlements of Stupochki, Chasov Yar and Kalinina, the general said.
"Aircraft flew four sorties and the battlegroup’s artillery accomplished 59 firing objectives in that area in the past 24 hours," Konashenkov reported.
Russian forces eliminate 110 Ukrainian troops in Kupyansk area
Russian forces destroyed roughly 110 Ukrainian troops in the Kupyansk area over the past day, he said.
"In the Kupyansk direction, operational/tactical and army aviation and artillery of the western battlegroup struck the enemy units near the settlements of Dvurechnaya, Figolevka, Yagodnoye, Pershotravnevoye and Tabayevka in the Kharkov Region. As many as 110 Ukrainian personnel, two armored combat vehicles, three motor vehicles and a Grad multiple rocket launcher were destroyed in that direction in the past 24 hours," the general said.
Russian forces neutralize four Ukrainian subversive groups in Kupyansk area
Russian forces neutralized four Ukrainian subversive groups in the Lugansk People’s Republic and the Kharkov Region in the Kupyansk direction over the past day, Konashenkov reported.
"In areas near the settlements of Novosyolovskoye in the Lugansk People’s Republic, Olshana and Krakhmalnoye in the Kharkov Region, the activity of four Ukrainian subversive/reconnaissance groups was thwarted," the spokesman said.
Russian forces eliminate over 70 Ukrainian troops in Krasny Liman area
Russian forces destroyed over 70 Ukrainian troops and a Gvozdika motorized artillery gun in the Krasny Liman area over the past day, Konashenkov reported.
"In the Krasny Liman direction, assault aircraft and artillery of the battlegroup Center struck the Ukrainian army units near the settlements of Torskoye in the Donetsk People’s Republic, Chervonopopovka and Chervonaya Dibrova in the Lugansk People’s Republic," the spokesman said.
The strikes eliminated over 70 Ukrainian personnel, an armored combat vehicle, two motor vehicles, a D-30 howitzer and a Gvozdika motorized artillery system, the general specified.
Russian forces destroy over 400 Ukrainian troops, mercenaries in Donetsk advance
Russian forces destroyed over 400 Ukrainian troops and mercenaries in their advance in the Donetsk area over the past day, Konashenkov reported.
"Over 400 Ukrainian personnel and mercenaries, two infantry fighting vehicles, six armored combat vehicles, four motor vehicles, D-20 and D-30 howitzers and a Gvozdika motorized artillery gun were destroyed," the spokesman said.
Near the settlement of Novgorodskoye in the Donetsk People’s Republic, Russian forces destroyed an AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery radar of the Ukrainian army, the general said.
Russian forces destroy 60 Ukrainian troops in southern Donetsk, Zaporozhye areas
Russian forces destroyed roughly 60 Ukrainian troops and a US-made M777 artillery system in the southern Donetsk and Zaporozhye areas over the past day, Konashenkov reported.
In the southern Donetsk and Zaporozhye directions, operational/tactical and army aviation aircraft and artillery of the battlegroup East struck the Ukrainian army units in areas near the settlements of Ugledar, Nikolskoye and Novomikhailovka in the Donetsk People’s Republic, the spokesman specified.
"The enemy’s losses in those directions in the past 24 hours amounted to 60 Ukrainian personnel, an armored personnel carrier, a Tor-M1 anti-aircraft missile launcher, three motor vehicles and a US-made M777 artillery system," the general said.
Russian forces destroy 30 Ukrainian troops, German anti-aircraft gun in Kherson area
Russian forces destroyed roughly 30 Ukrainian troops, four S-300 surface-to-air missile launchers and a German-made Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft gun in the Kherson area over the past day, Konashenkov reported.
"In the Kherson direction, as many as 30 Ukrainian personnel, four Ukrainian S-300 surface-to-air missile launchers, a German-made Gepard motorized anti-aircraft gun, two motor vehicles and two D-30 howitzers were destroyed as a result of artillery fire," the spokesman said.
Russia’s precision strike thwarts Kiev reserves’ advance to combat area
Russian forces delivered a strike by precision weapons against the deployment sites of the Ukrainian army’s reserves over the past day, Konashenkov reported.
"Last night, long-range seaborne precision weapons delivered a concentrated strike on the deployment sites of the enemy’s reserves. The goal of the strike was achieved. All the designated targets were struck. The strike thwarted the advance by Ukrainian marine infantry units to the areas of combat operations," the spokesman said.
Russian forces wipe out Ukrainian ammo depots in DPR
Russian forces destroyed Ukrainian ammunition depots in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) over the past day, Konashenkov reported.
"In areas near the settlements of Vodyanoye and the Uglesborochnaya railway station in the Donetsk People’s Republic, the ammunition depots of the Ukrainian army’s 72nd mechanized brigade were obliterated," the spokesman said.
Russian forces destroy two Ukrainian radars in DPR
Russian forces destroyed two Ukrainian radar stations in the Donetsk People’s Republic over the past day, Konashenkov reported.
"In the area of the settlement of Kamyshevakha in the Donetsk People’s Republic, two Ukrainian P-18 and ST-68 air target detection and tracking radars were destroyed," the spokesman said.
Russia’s Aerospace Forces down Ukrainian Su-24 frontline bomber in DPR
Russian fighter aircraft shot down a Ukrainian Su-24 frontline bomber in the Donetsk People’s Republic over the past day, Konashenkov reported.
"Fighter aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces shot down a Ukrainian Air Force Su-24 plane near the settlement of Lipovka in the Donetsk People’s Republic," the spokesman said.
Russian forces strike three command posts
Russian forces struck three Ukrainian command posts over the past day, Konashenkov reported.
"In areas near the settlements of Cherkesskoye in the Kherson Region, Avdeyevka and Serebryanka in the Donetsk People’s Republic, the command/observation posts of units from the Ukrainian army’s special operations forces South, 110th mechanized and 58th motorized infantry brigades were struck," the spokesman said.
Operational/tactical and army aviation aircraft, missile troops and artillery of the Russian group of forces struck 78 Ukrainian artillery units at firing positions, manpower and equipment in 109 areas, the general reported.
Russian air defenses intercept four US-made HIMARS rockets
Russian air defense forces intercepted four rockets of the US-made HIMARS multiple launch rocket system and shot down 21 Ukrainian combat drones over the past day, Konashenkov reported.
"During the last 24-hour period, air defense capabilities intercepted four rockets of the HIMARS multiple launch rocket system. In addition, they shot down 21 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in areas near the settlements of Spornoye, Kirillovka and Vasilyevka in the Donetsk People’s Republic, Lugovskoye, Novoye and Mayachka in the Zaporozhye Region, Zhovtnevoye in the Kharkov Region, Korsunka in the Kherson Region and Kremennaya in the Lugansk People’s Republic," the spokesman said.
In total, the Russian Armed Forces have destroyed 413 Ukrainian combat aircraft, 228 helicopters, 3,882 unmanned aerial vehicles, 421 anti-aircraft missile systems, 8,878 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,095 multiple rocket launchers, 4,671 field artillery guns and mortars and 9,805 special military motor vehicles since the beginning of the special military operation in Ukraine, Konashenkov reported.
Business Insider/AP/RT/TASS
