RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE
Biden prepares for Ukraine failure – Politico
US President Joe Biden’s administration is “quietly preparing for the possibility”that Ukraine’s much-heralded offensive doesn’t deliver the “total victory” Kiev wanted, Politico reported on Monday, citing several anonymous officials.
While the US government’s public support for Ukraine is “unwavering,” officials have expressed fears in private that the White House could be caught in a crossfire of criticism should the attack fall short of expectations, the outlet said. The ‘hawks’ would claim the US and its allies had not given Ukraine enough weapons and ammunition, while the ‘doves’ would see it as proof that Kiev can’t win.
“If Ukraine can’t gain dramatically on the battlefield, the question inevitably arises as to whether it is time for a negotiated stop to the fighting,” Richard Haass, the president of the Council on Foreign Relations, told Politico. “It’s expensive, we’re running low on munitions, we’ve got other contingencies around the world to prepare for.”
One official, who requested anonymity, said the US had “surged” weapons and equipment to Ukraine and “nearly completed” all that Kiev had asked for. But behind closed doors, the US is “worried about what Ukraine can accomplish.”
The US military believes the conflict has bogged down in a trench war, with neither side able to advance very far or very fast. Politico originally reported that Ukraine had suffered 100,000 troops killed, but later changed that to refer to total casualties, including the wounded. The outlet also noted that Kiev’s forces have gone through “historic amounts of ammunition and weaponry,” and that “even the West’s prodigious output” has been unable to meet their needs.
The Pentagon now doubts that Ukraine can achieve its objective of reaching Crimea, though the US military still hopes it could “hamper” the Russian supply lines.
A negotiated truce would be sold to both the Western and Ukrainian public as a temporary ceasefire, “leaving the door open for Ukraine to regain more of its territory at a future date,” some US officials told Politico. This has been done before, with the 2015 Minsk Agreement – according to recent admissions by the German and French leaders at the time – though the outlet did not bring that up.
US officials also proposed to sweeten the deal with “NATO-like security guarantees” to Kiev, more money from the EU, and even more weapons for the Ukrainian military, while “re-engaging China” to push Russia into negotiating.
** Ukrainian commander laments state of army – El Pais
Kiev needs more troops, ammunition and equipment to continue its military conflict with Moscow, Ukrainian Brigadier General Sergey Melnik told Spain’s El Pais in an interview published on Monday. Ukraine has already lost most of its professional soldiers as the conflict drags on, he admitted.
“The problem is that we have a lack of people and equipment,” said the general, who commands troops near the Russian border in Kharkov Region. “Professional soldiers… are already exhausted, injured or recovering. Or… dead,” he added.
Melnik said Kiev is now relying on “people without military experience,” who first need to be trained and have an “adequate [level of] preparation to face the enemy.” According to El Pais, the general also “stressed several times during the interview” that Ukraine needs more air-defense systems, citing the threat posed by Russian aircraft.
He also admitted that Kiev’s forces would need to gain massive superiority in manpower and firepower if they are to have any hope of succeeding with a planned counteroffensive. Ukraine will need “four to six times” as many troops as Moscow has fielded in its ongoing military campaign if it is to break through the defenses built by the Russian forces in their current positions, he told El Pais.
He claimed that Ukraine has “enough weapons” to launch the expected offensive but said the more weapons Kiev’s troops get from the West, the better.
Earlier in April, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denis Shmigal told The Hill that the much-touted Ukrainian counteroffensive may not get underway until summer. He also called on Kiev’s Western backers to provide it with more weapons, including fighter jets. He also said Ukraine needed “more artillery, ammunition” and missiles.
Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal and New York Times reported that the US and other Western nations are struggling to meet Ukraine’s demands and are “falling short” of supplying Kiev with enough military equipment and ammunition.
A retired US Army colonel and former Pentagon adviser, Douglas Macgregor, also said this month that Russia was “winning” the fight in Ukraine as Kiev does not have enough resources for a successful offensive.
WESTERN PERSPECTIVE
Ukraine attacks Russia's main naval base in Crimea with exploding sea drones
The Russian governor of the largest city in Crimea says that Ukrainian forces attacked Russia's main naval base in the region using exploding sea drones on Monday morning.
Mikhail Razvozhayev, the Moscow-appointed governor of Sevastopol in Crimea, said on Telegram Monday morning that the attack on the naval base in Sevastopol started at 3:30 a.m. He said that Russian forces destroyed one sea drone and that a second drone exploded on its own.
No one was injured in the attack, Razvozhayev said, adding that the incident happened in the harbor off of Sevastopol and that the drones didn't make their way into Streletskaya Bay.
He said the blast from the drone's explosion broke windows on four residential buildings, and he ordered Vice-Governor Evgeny Sergeevich Gorlov to manage the damage.
"Now the city is quiet," Razvozhayev said. "But all forces and services are in a state of combat readiness."
Ukrainian officials have not commented on the attack, though Reuters reportedthat Ukraine doesn't usually claim responsibility for attacks on Sevastopol, which is internationally recognized as part of Ukraine but was annexed along with the rest of the Crimean peninsula by Russia in 2014.
Russian officials have accused Ukraine of carrying out multiple attacks on Sevastopol since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
In July, Russia claimed a drone attack on its Black Sea fleet headquarters in Sevastopol injured six people. At the time, Ukraine denied responsibility for the attack.
** Visiting Ukraine, Estonian PM backs Kyiv over EU and NATO bids
Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas supported Kyiv's calls for accession to the NATO military alliance "as soon as conditions allow" during a visit to Ukraine on Monday.
Kallas, whose country is a member of NATO and the European Union, had talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in the northwestern city of Zhytomyr and signed a joint declaration with him condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
"We agree that a strong, independent and prosperous Ukraine, as part of the Euro-Atlantic family and as a member of the EU and NATO, is essential for the future of European security," the joint declaration said.
"In the context of the NATO Vilnius Summit (in July), we agree to work together to establish a path that will help bring Ukraine closer to NATO membership and pave the way for Ukraine to join NATO as soon as conditions allow."
Zelenskiy thanked Estonia for its defence support, but also reiterated demands for rapid deliveries of more weapons from Western allies "so that we can speed up the end of this war".
People's lives depended on the speed and implementation of decisions on weapons and ammunition, he added later in his nightly video address. "I am grateful to Estonia for its willingness to facilitiate relevant communication with other partners," he added.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said after talks in Kyiv last week that Ukraine's rightful place was in the military alliance but did not say when it might be able to join.
"A positive political decision is needed by the alliance on Ukraine's accession," Zelenskiy said after meeting Kallas.
Russia has said weapons supplies to Ukraine by NATO countries are dragging out the conflict and raising the possibility of a further escalation. It regards Ukrainian accession to NATO as a threat to its own security.
RT/Business Insider/Reuters
