WESTERN PERSPECTIVE
Biden, Putin display their alliances with Ukraine war backdrop
U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin bolstered their respective alliances with NATO and China, days before the first anniversary of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.
Global tensions between superpowers were highlighted on a day of diplomacy in Warsaw and Moscow on Wednesday. Biden promised that the United States "will defend literally every inch of NATO", the military alliance that includes some Eastern European countries bordering Russia.
Putin said Chinese leader Xi Jinping would visit Russia, saying relations had reached "new frontiers." Washington is concerned Beijing could provide material support for Moscow's war in Ukraine, which began on Feb. 24 last year and has become the biggest land conflict in Europe since World War Two.
The war has displaced millions, left Ukrainian cities, towns and villages in ruins and disrupted the global economy.
Putin, in an address to mark Thursday's Defender of the Fatherland public holiday, said Russia will continue to pay increased attention to boosting its nuclear forcesand will begin mass deliveries of Zirkon sea-launched hypersonic missiles. Russia is due to begin military exercises with China in South Africa on Friday and has sent a frigate equipped with the hypersonic missiles.
Russia would also keep equipping its armed forces with advanced equipment and is boosting production of conventional weapons, Putin said in the remarks issued by the Kremlin early on Thursday.
On Wednesday, Putin welcomed China's top diplomat, Wang Yi, to the Kremlin, and Wang also met separately with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. TASS news agency quoted Wang as saying China would "firmly adhere to an objective and impartial position and play a constructive role in the political settlement of the crisis".
Lavrov and Wang had not discussed a reported Chinese peace plan, the Russian foreign ministry said.
The relationship between China and Russia, Wang said through an interpreter, was not directed against any third party but in a clear jab at the United States he said the countries would "not succumb to pressure from third parties."
EASTERN FLANK OF NATO
In Warsaw, Biden met with leaders of nine Eastern European countries that during the Cold War were either aligned with Moscow or part of the former Soviet Union. Some of them now are among the strongest supporters of military aid to Ukraine.
"As NATO's eastern flank, you are the front line of our collective defence. You know better than anyone what is at stake in this conflict. Not just for Ukraine, but for the freedom of democracies throughout Europe and around the world," Biden said.
The Kremlin says it regards NATO, which could soon expand to include Sweden and Finland, as an existential threat to Russia. On his trip this week, which included a visit to the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, Biden rejected Russia's contention that the West wants to control or destroy it.
Meanwhile, at a meeting on Wednesday of the 193-member United Nations General Assembly to mark the Ukraine war's anniversary, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres denounced Russia's invasion as a violation of the founding U.N. Charter and international law and called out Moscow's threats about possible use of nuclear weapons.
In two speeches last September Putin indicated that he would, if needed, use nuclear weapons to defend Russia.
"We have heard implicit threats to use nuclear weapons. The so-called tactical use of nuclear weapons is utterly unacceptable. It is high time to step back from the brink," Guterres said.
Putin suspended the New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) on nuclear arms control with the United States on Tuesday, accusing Washington of turning the war into a global conflict by arming Ukraine.
Moscow would stick to agreed limits on nuclear missiles and keep informing the United States about changes in its deployments, a senior Russian defence ministry official said.
Biden said in an ABC News interview that he saw no change in Moscow's nuclear posture and did not think Putin's remarks meant Russia was thinking of using nuclear weapons.
Asked about Russia's suspension of participation in New START, Biden called it "a big mistake" but said, "I don't read into that that he's thinking of using nuclear weapons or anything like that."
BATTLEFIELD
Russia, trying to secure full control of two eastern provinces forming Ukraine's Donbas industrial region, has launched repeated assaults. Russian troops managed to break through Ukrainian defences near the town of Kreminna on Tuesday but were pushed back and lost some of their heavy equipment, a senior Ukrainian official said on Wednesday.
Kreminna is about 70 km (43.5 miles) north of Bakhmut, focus of the fiercest Russian attacks.
Russia controls around a fifth of Ukraine a year after starting what it called a "special military operation" to protect Russian security. Ukraine and its Western allies have described the invasion as an imperial-style land grab.
RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE
Poll reveals Russians' support for Putin up sharply in all areas over past year
Pollsters have noted significant growth in all the main indicators characterizing Russians' attitudes toward President Vladimir Putin and other institutions of power over the past year, head of the political analysis division of the Russian Public Opinion Research Center Mikhail Mamonov said.
"The effect of consolidation around the leader remains. Over the past year, we have recorded a significant increase in all the main indicators of attitudes toward the president. First of all, this is the trust indicator: it stood at 78% by the end of 2022, which is 13 percentage points higher compared to 2021 (65%) - that's a lot, an insane amount," Mamonov said on Wednesday during a roundtable discussion at the Expert Institute for Social Research, commenting on the poll results conducted over the year among 1,600 adults aged 18 and over.
According to his information, the increase in the annual average of the president's approval in 2022 was 15 percentage points (75% vs. 60% in 2021). "The biggest dynamic was seen in the legitimacy indicator, which we assess through the attitude towards the actions in whose interests the government works, the majority or the minority. About 73% of respondents now say that the president acts in the interests of the majority, which is a 20-point increase (53% in 2021). This is a lot," Mamonov said.
According to him, the polls also show an increase in the legitimacy of all government bodies. "This applies to the federal authorities, the government, the State Duma, the Federation Council, and regional authorities. The level of support and approval of the activities of these institutions has increased significantly. This allows us to talk about the growth of stability of the system, about the strengthening of its legitimacy as a whole," Mamonov stressed.
According to him, 54% of respondents say that "the country's top leaders have a long-term development strategy." Mamonov points out that the polls were conducted before President Putin's State of the Nation Address to the Federal Assembly, so "this number will increase now, since the public has heard the answers to some of the questions it has been interested in."
** Russian crude exports soar ahead of output cut
Shipments of Russian seaborne crude surged last week as buyers rushed to fill up stocks days before the world’s third largest producer is due to slash oil output, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday.
Exports from Russia’s Baltic, Black Sea, Arctic, and Pacific terminals jumped by 26% compared to the previous week, reaching a total of 25.2 million tons of crude or 3.6 million barrels a day in the seven days to February 17.
Earlier this month, Moscow announced it would voluntarily reduce oil production in March by 500,000 barrels per day, as it halts sales to buyers that comply with a Western-imposed price ceiling. Numerous Western analysts interpreted the move as unavoidable and a forced decision, although the flow data indicate that Russia’s oil output cut was rather a policy of choice, Bloomberg claimed.
Large volumes of crude, including oil that previously went to Poland and Germany by pipelines, were shipped from Russian ports on European tankers.
According to Bloomberg data, volumes of oil destined for China, India, and Türkiye – nations that have not joined Western sanctions – and cargos that have not yet shown their endpoint reached 3.19 million barrels a day in the four weeks to February 17, representing the highest amount recorded since the outlet began tracking the shipments at the start of 2022.
Observations show that most of the cargoes currently identified as ‘Unknown Asia’, now carrying the equivalent of 603,000 barrels a day, will end up in India. Vessels categorized as ‘Other Unknown’, running at 813,000 barrels a day in the four weeks to February 17, could eventually emerge in Türkiye.
The outlet said that an increasing number of crude cargoes are being transferred from one ship to another in the Mediterranean for onward journeys to Asia.
Seaborne oil exports to European countries excluding Türkiye surged to 125,000 barrels a day in the 28 days to February 17, with Bulgaria the only European destination as it secured an exemption from Western sanctions until 2024.
An EU embargo on seaborne Russian crude went into effect on December 5 along with a $60 price cap on oil exports as part of the sixth package of Ukraine-related sanctions imposed on Moscow. The Russian government has forbidden any oil deals under the price cap scheme.
