WESTERN PERSPECTIVE
New Russian offensive underway in Ukraine, says NATO
The eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut was facing heavy artillery fire as the NATO chief backed reports from local officials that a major new Russian offensive had begun, days before the first anniversary of Moscow's invasion.
Ukrainian defenders, who have already held out for months, were braced for new ground attacks, Ukrainian military officials said on Monday.
Positions in Bakhmut have been fortified and only people with a military role were being allowed in, while any civilians who still wanted to leave the city would have to brave the incoming fire, a deputy battalion commander said on Monday.
Bakhmut is a prime objective for Russian President Vladimir Putin, and its capture would give Russia a new foothold in the Donetsk region and a rare victory after months of setbacks.
The Donetsk and Luhansk regions make up the Donbas, Ukraine's industrial heartland, now partially occupied by Russia which wants full control.
"We see how they are sending more troops, more weapons, more capabilities," NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters in Brussels, saying it was the start of a new offensive.
The Russian assault on Bakhmut has been spearheaded by mercenaries of the Wagner group, who have made small but steady gains. The renewed Russian bombardments made the situation there even more acute.
"The city, the city's suburbs, the entire perimeter, and essentially the entire Bakhmut direction and Kostyantynivka are under crazy, chaotic shelling," Volodymyr Nazarenko, deputy commander of Ukraine's Svoboda battalion, said on Monday.
The Russian defence ministry said its troops had pushed forward a few kilometres along the frontlines, without specifying where.
The Ukrainian military reported Russian shelling all along the frontline and said 16 settlements had been bombarded near Bakhmut. It said that over the past day, its forces had repelled attacks near Bakhmut as well as assaults in the Kharkiv, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia regions.
"Thank you to every one of our soldiers who are preventing the occupiers from encircling Bakhmut... and who are holding our key positions at the front," President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in his evening address.
Reuters was not able to independently verify the battlefield reports.
NATO TO DISCUSS FURTHER AID
The United Nations' human rights office said on Monday it had recorded 7,199 civilian deaths and 11,756 wounded since Russia's Feb. 24 invasion, mostly from shelling and missile and air strikes. However, it believed the actual figure was far higher.
Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, in what it calls a "special military operation" to "denazify" the country and protect Russian speakers. Western leaders say it was nothing more than a land grab.
Moldova's president accused Russia on Monday of planning to use foreign saboteurs to bring down her leadership and use it in the war against Ukraine.
Zelenskiy said last week his country had uncovered a Russian intelligence plan "for the destruction of Moldova." Days later the government of the country, bordering Ukraine and Romania, resigned.
Russia denied last year wanting to intervene in Moldova after authorities in Transdniestria, a breakaway region that has survived for three decades with support from Moscow, said they had been targeted by a series of attacks.
White House national security spokesperson John Kirby on Monday said reports of the plot had not been independently confirmed but were "deeply concerning" and "certainly not outside the bounds of Russian behaviour."
With Ukraine desperate for more weapons, defence ministers from several NATO countries allied to Kyiv will meet in Germany on Tuesday to discuss possible further military aid.
On the eve of the meeting, Ukraine's top general and the most senior U.S. Army commander in Europe discussed military aid and training in a telephone conversation. Ukraine says it needs fighter jets and long-range missiles.
Stoltenberg said he expected the issue of aircraft to be discussed, but that Ukraine needed support on the ground now.
A NATO source said it would increase targets for the stockpiling of ammunition as Kyiv was burning through shells much faster than Western countries can produce.
Western capitals will lay out additional pledges of ammunition and air defence equipment for Ukraine on Tuesday, officials told the FT.
Training of Ukrainian forces on the Leopard 2 and other modern battle tanks that are to boost the country's defence is underway in several European countries, including Poland, Britain and Germany.
** Kremlin moves to rein in Russian mercenary boss Prigozhin
His private army is pushing hard to give Russia a battlefield win in Ukraine, but mounting evidence suggests the Kremlin has moved to curb what it sees as the excessive political clout of Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of Russia's Wagner mercenary group.
Prigozhin, a 61-year-old ex-convict, has grabbed headlines in recent months over his bloody role in Ukraine and is sometimes portrayed in the West as a real-life James Bond villain.
Shaven-headed and fond of coarse language, he has made a splash in Russian-language media too where he has revelled in being sanctioned by the West, publicly insulted Russia's top military brass, tried to parlay battlefield success into Kremlin favour, and detailed his recruitment of tens of thousands of convicts for his private army.
His profile became so prominent that allies and analysts began speculating he was angling for an official job or career in politics.
There is growing evidence now though that the Kremlin has moved to nip such speculation in the bud, ordering Prigozhin to halt his public criticism of the defence ministry while advising state media to stop mentioning him or Wagner by name.
Prigozhin confirmed last week he had also been stripped of the right to recruit convicts from prisons - a key pillar of his nascent political influence and one which has helped his forces make small but steady gains in eastern Ukraine where they appear to be inching closer to capturing the city of Bakhmut.
Olga Romanova, director of a prisoner rights group, said the Ministry of Defence had taken over convict recruitment earlier this year. The ministry has not confirmed that.
"The position of the (Kremlin) political bloc is not to let him into politics. They are a little afraid of him and find him an inconvenient person," Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin adviser who remains close to the authorities, told Reuters.
POLITICAL PLAYER?
Tatiana Stanovaya, a veteran Kremlin scholar, wrote in a paper for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace that, while Prigozhin's downfall did not appear imminent, his ties with the presidential administration were starting to crack.
"The domestic policy overseers don't like his political demagogy, his attacks on official institutions, or his attempts to troll Putin's staff by threatening to form a political party, which would be a headache for everyone in the Kremlin," she wrote.
"He hasn't just become a public figure; he is visibly transforming into a full-fledged politician with his own views."
According to Markov, the Kremlin has got a promise from Prigozhin that he would not create his own political movement or join a parliamentary party unless asked to do so by the Kremlin.
"(The message) is we will give you military resources, but do not get involved in politics for now," said Markov.
Prigozhin told a Russian interviewer on Friday that he had "zero" political ambitions.
Markov, who described Prigozhin as extremely confrontational, said he believed Putin had told Prigozhin to halt public criticism of the top brass at a St Petersburg meeting around Jan. 14.
Markov said he did not know full details of who said what at the meeting and Reuters was not able to confirm the accuracy of his assertion.
Prigozhin has since moderated his criticism and made a point on Friday in a rare interview of looking into the camera to say he wasn't criticising anyone.
The St Petersburg meeting, which did not appear on the Kremlin website, was confirmed by at least one other attendee who posted about it on social media. The Kremlin says it does not comment on private meetings.
The Kremlin did not immediately reply to a request for comment about whether and why it had reined in Prigozhin, but on Saturday, Grey Zone, an influential social media channel associated with Wagner, published what looked like a leaked guidance document for state media from the Kremlin.
It advised recipients to stop mentioning Prigozhin or Wagner and suggested generic phrases to describe his forces instead.
Reuters could not verify the document and state media are not allowed to share such guidance notes.
'HIS STAR HAS DIMMED'
Prigozhin, in comments on Monday, said it looked like Russian media mentions of Wagner had fallen recently, something he blamed on unnamed "losers" trying to damage his group.
Markov, who has written about Prigozhin a lot in a mostly positive light, said he was among those to have been requested not to promote the mercenary leader.
"They underlined that 'we don't ban you but it's better not to do it'," he said.
Dmitri Alperovitch, the Russian-born chairman of U.S. think-tank Silverado Policy Accelerator, said he felt Prigozhin's room for manoeuvre was shrinking.
"Prigozhin's star has dimmed. He had overreached in his criticism of the military and other elites," Alperovitch wrote on Twitter. "Now his wings are getting clipped."
After years of denials, Prigozhin stepped out of the shadows in September to admit he had founded Wagner in 2014.
By then, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, something Moscow calls a special military operation, had gone badly wrong for the top brass, with a chaotic retreat from Kyiv followed by a rout in the north-eastern Kharkiv region, and an impending forced retreat from the southern city of Kherson.
The wealthy catering tycoon quickly put himself at the heart of a frenzied public relations campaign and, through social media, state TV and feature films, promoted his private army as an elite fighting force who could work military alchemy.
He cast himself as a ruthlessly efficient patriotic operator and Russia's top brass as incompetent and out-of-touch.
Prigozhin, whose mercenaries are active in Africa and the Middle East, suggested last week that he and his men could one day disappear as fast as they appeared, something his many enemies may doubt.
"When we are no longer needed, we will pack up and go back to Africa," he said.
** Dutch F-35s intercept three Russian military aircraft near Poland - Netherlands' defence ministry
Two Dutch F-35 fighters intercepted a formation of three Russian military aircraft near Poland and escorted them out, the Netherlands' defence ministry said in a statement late on Monday.
"The then unknown aircraft approached the Polish NATO area of responsibility from Kaliningrad," according to Reuters' translation of the ministry's statement.
Kaliningrad is a Russian Baltic coast enclave located between NATO and European Union members Poland and Lithuania.
"After identification, it turned out to be three aircraft: a Russian IL-20M Coot-A that was escorted by two Su-27 Flankers. The Dutch F-35s escorted the formation from a distance and handed over the escort to NATO partners."
The Il-20M Coot-A is NATO's reporting name for the Russian Ilyushin Il-20M reconnaissance aircraft while the Su-27 Flankers are NATO's reporting name for the Sukhoi Su-28 fighter aircraft.
Russia's defence ministry did not immediately respond to Reuters' request for a comment.
The Netherlands' defence ministry said that eight Dutch F-35s are stationed in Poland for February and March.
RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE
NATO launches new ‘surveillance’ network
NATO will launch a new “virtual network” comprising national and commercial satellites, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg revealed in a press conference on Monday ahead of a meeting of NATO defense ministers.
“This will improve our intelligence and surveillance. And support NATO missions and operations,” he said, adding that it would allow for “better navigation, communication, and early warning of missile launches.”
The move comes several months after the Russian Foreign Ministry warned that Western commercial satellites being used in the Ukraine conflict are valid military targets.
Stoltenberg acknowledged that the new network – as well as the much-needed replenishment of member nations’ weapons stores after a year of fighting in Ukraine – would require increased military spending from those nations. The day’s meeting would thus include discussions of how to “maintain and step up defense spending across the alliance,” he said.
In addition to “stand[ing] with Ukraine for as long as it takes,” he hinted at an expansion of NATO’s efforts in Eastern Europe, explaining that “ministers will also address how to step up our practical support for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia and Moldova,” whom he called “valued partners which face Russian threats.”
While none of the three named countries are NATO members, the bloc has encouraged them to cozy up to it as the conflict in Ukraine drags on. Moldova received EU candidate status in June, Bosnia in December, and Georgia applied for EU membership in March, though none have officially applied for NATO membership.
Russia has adamantly opposed NATO expansion, viewing the military alliance’s efforts to encroach on its borders and place missiles on its western flank as a direct threat. Moscow has sought a promise from Kiev that it will never join the bloc, though such a pledge has not been forthcoming.
** NATO wants to ramp up output of munitions to supply Kiev, is engaged with producers
The number of munitions spent by Ukraine and supplied to Ukraine is many times higher than NATO countries are able to produce, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said at a news conference on Monday.
He said NATO is closely engaged with defense contractors to ramp up production of ammunition quickly and the matter will come up for discussion when the alliance’s defense ministers will gather for a meeting in Brussels on February 14-15.
"The current rate of Ukraine’s ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production," he said, adding that, for example, the waiting time for large-caliber ammunition has increased from 12 to 28 months.
"Orders placed today would only be delivered two-and-a-half years later," he said.
Stoltenberg also described the current stage of the conflict in Ukraine as a "race of logistics".
"Speed will save lives," he said, urging NATO members to provide arms to Ukraine as swiftly as possible.
The secretary general conceded the problem exists, but said it could be solved.
"Even when you have a factory running, you can have more shifts. You can even work during weekends," he said. "Yes, we have a problem. But problems are there to be solved <…> We have strategies to solve it both in the short term and also longer term."
Stoltenberg also emphasized NATO member countries should step up their purchases of ammunition, adding that the US and France were already moving in that direction.
"In the short run, the industry can increase production by having more shifts, by using existing production facilities more. But really to have a significant increase, they need to invest and build new plans," he said.
** Russian troops liberate another DPR community in Donetsk advance
Russian forces liberated the community of Krasnaya Gora in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) over the past day during the special military operation in Ukraine, Defense Ministry Spokesman Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov reported on Monday.
"In the Donetsk direction, volunteers of assault units with the fire support of missile troops and artillery of the southern battlegroup liberated the settlement of Krasnaya Gora in the Donetsk People’s Republic," the spokesman said.
Russian artillery inflicted damage on Ukrainian army units in the Kupyansk area, eliminating over 30 enemy troops in the past day, Konashenkov reported.
"In the Kupyansk direction, artillery of the western battlegroup inflicted damage on Ukrainian army units in areas near the settlements of Dvurechnaya, Krakhmalnoye, Gryanikovka and Timkovka in the Kharkov Region, and also Novosyolovskoye in the Lugansk People’s Republic," the spokesman said.
The strikes eliminated enemy manpower and equipment, the general said.
"Over 30 Ukrainian personnel, two armored combat vehicles, three motor vehicles and a D-20 howitzer were destroyed in that area in the past 24 hours," Konashenkov reported.
Russian forces destroyed over 80 Ukrainian troops and a D-30 howitzer in the Krasny Liman area in the past day, Konashenkov reported.
"In the Krasny Liman direction, over 80 Ukrainian personnel, three armored combat vehicles and a D-30 howitzer were destroyed as a result of artillery and heavy flamethrower fire by the battlegroup Center in areas near the settlements of Yampolovka in the Donetsk People’s Republic, Chervonaya Dibrova, Chervonopopovka, Kuzmino and Stelmakhovka in the Lugansk People’s Republic," the spokesman said.
Russian forces eliminated over 150 Ukrainian troops in the Donetsk area in the past day, Konashenkov reported.
"The enemy’s losses in the past 24 hours totaled over 150 Ukrainian servicemen, four armored combat vehicles, six pickup trucks and two D-30 howitzers," the spokesman said.
Russian forces eliminated over 60 Ukrainian troops in the southern Donetsk area in the past day, Konashenkov reported.
"In the southern Donetsk direction, artillery of the battlegroup East inflicted damage on amassed Ukrainian manpower and military equipment in the areas of the settlements of Prechistovka and Ugledar in the Donetsk People’s Republic," the spokesman said.
In the past 24 hours, Russian forces destroyed "over 60 Ukrainian troops, three armored combat vehicles, four pickup trucks, a D-20 howitzer and two D-30 howitzers," the general specified.
Russian forces destroyed two Ukrainian Grad multiple launch rocket systems and two Gvozdika self-propelled howitzers in the Kherson area over the past day, Konashenkov reported.
"In the Kherson direction, two Grad multiple rocket launchers and two Gvozdika self-propelled howitzers were destroyed in counter-battery fire in the past 24 hours," the spokesman said.
Russian forces struck the Ukrainian army’s equipment repair base near Slavyansk in the Donetsk People’s Republic over the past day, Konashenkov reported.
"In the area of the city of Slavyansk in the Donetsk People’s Republic, the armaments and military equipment repair and recovery base of the Ukrainian army’s 95th air assault brigade was struck," the spokesman said.
In the past 24 hours, Russian forces hit 82 Ukrainian artillery units at firing positions, manpower and military hardware in 126 areas, the general specified.
Russian air defense forces shot down nine Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles and six HIMARS rockets over the past day, Konashenkov reported.
"In the past 24 hours, air defense capabilities shot down six rockets of the HIMARS multiple launch rocket system, and also destroyed nine Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in areas near the settlements of Kremennaya, Chervonopopovka, Zhovtnevoye and Golikovo in the Lugansk People’s Republic, Petrovskoye in the Zaporozhye Region, Sagi, Katerinovka and Marinskoye in the Kherson Region," the spokesman said.
In all, the Russian Armed Forces have destroyed 384 Ukrainian combat aircraft, 207 helicopters, 3,114 unmanned aerial vehicles, 404 surface-to-air missile systems, 7,852 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,017 multiple rocket launchers, 4,082 field artillery guns and mortars and 8,363 special military motor vehicles since the beginning of the special military operation in Ukraine, Konashenkov reported.
Reuters/RT/TASS
