RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE
Russia to cut oil production in response to Western sanctions
Russia will voluntarily reduce oil production in March by 500,000 barrels per day as it halts sales to buyers complying with a Western-imposed price cap, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Novak announced on Friday.
Novak said the move should help restore market relations shattered by the price ceiling, which he branded “illegal.”
“Russia believes that the mechanism of price caps on Russian oil and petroleum products is an intervention in market relations and an extension of destructive energy policies of the collective West,” the deputy PM said in a statement.
The EU and the G7 nations introduced a price cap on Russian supplies on February 5, setting a limit of $100 per barrel for diesel, jet fuel and gasoline coming from Russia, and a $45 per barrel for other oil products that trade below the crude price, such as fuel oil used in industry. Fuel exports priced over these limits will be barred from insurance and shipping services from companies located in Western countries. The caps follow a previously introduced $60-per-barrel price ceiling on Russian crude oil.
Russia has repeatedly warned of potential output cuts since the EU and G7 began discussing capping the price of Russian exports. Economists say the production reduction, which is the equivalent of about 5% of January’s output, may trigger volatility on the oil market, which has taken in its stride the EU ban on seaborne imports of Russian oil.
Russia is currently able to sell “all volumes of oil produced” to foreign markets, Novak said, adding that “we will act based on how the market situation is developing,” when making further decisions.
There are concerns that Moscow’s decision will deepen the 2 million barrel-a-day supply curbs announced late last year by OPEC+, which Russia leads along with Saudi Arabia.
An analyst at UBS Group, Giovanni Staunovo, told Bloomberg that in the short term there is nobody to fill the supply gap created by the Russian cuts.
Crude prices jumped on the news, with the international benchmark Brent rising more than 2% to $86.60 a barrel as 13:00 GMT on Friday.
** Wagner boss estimates how long Ukraine conflict will last
The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine will likely continue for up to three more years, depending on the goals Moscow actually pursues in it, Wagner private military group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin has said. The businessman made the remarks in an exclusive interview with Semyon Pegov of the independent WarGonzo project on Friday.
“If we need to cover the DPR and LPR, then we need to work for at least another year and a half or two,” Prigozhin stated, referring to the territories of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, which were recently incorporated into Russia.
Should Russia seek to “go toward the Dnepr,” a major river separating Ukraine into roughly two halves, the conflict will last even longer and drag on for up to three more years, Prigozhin suggested. At the same time, the founder of the private military group noted that in any conflict, the destruction of the enemy’s army must be the priority, rather than a desire to seize territories from the adversary.
Prigozhin also revealed, apparently jokingly, that should Moscow also seek to reach all across Europe toward the English Channel, he already has a perfect plan for such an endeavor. To achieve that goal, everyone in Russia must drop any leisure activity, put on their “working suits,” and work tirelessly. Some spoils of the campaign, however, including “France, Italy, Bulgaria and something else,” should be ceded afterwards to Ukrainians, since they are set to “suffer here with us”much more.
Founded in 2014, Wagner has mainly operated as a security contractor in Africa and the Middle East until now. The precise details of its deployments have not been made public, while Prigozhin denied his ties to the group and its very existence until last year.
The group has been an active participant in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, scoring several victories against the Ukrainian troops. The achievements have also earned the company wide international attention, with the US declaring Wagner a “transnational criminal organization” last month.
** US okays Ukrainian forces’ strikes on Crimea
The US authorities have no objections to Ukrainian strikes against targets on the territory of Ukraine, including Crimea, which Washington considers a part of Ukraine, US Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Celeste Wallander said, speaking at an event at the Washington-based Center for a New American Security.
"The United States supports Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty over its internationally recognized borders, and that includes Crimea," she said, when asked whether Washington supported Ukraine's ‘return of Crimea’ or the Ukrainian strikes on Russian targets on the peninsula with weapons supplied to Kiev by the West, "Ukraine has the right to defend every inch of its territory <...> as you know, we [the US] don't have objections and do not seek to limit Ukrainian military operations to achieve their objectives."
Eight years ago, against the backdrop of a coup in Ukraine the authorities of Crimea and Sevastopol held a referendum on reunification with Russia on March 16, 2014. Over 80% of those eligible to vote took part in it, 96.7% and 95.6% of the respective residents voted for reunification with Russia. On March 18, 2014, the Russian President signed an agreement on the admission of the Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol to the Russian Federation, and on March 21, the document was ratified by the Federal Assembly. Despite the convincing results of the referendum, Kiev refused to recognize Crimea as part of Russia.
WESTERN PERSPECTIVE
Russia hits Ukraine power grid and gains ground in east; Biden to visit Poland
Russian missiles hit power facilities on Friday across Ukraine, where President Volodymyr Zelenskiy returned from a tour of Western capitals and Ukrainian officials said a long-awaited Russian offensive was underway in the east.
Ukraine's armed forces said in an evening update that Russian forces fired more than 100 missiles throughout the country and staged 12 air and 20 shelling attacks. The Facebook post said 61 cruise missiles were destroyed.
Energy Minister German Galushchenko said Russia had hit power facilities in six regions with missiles and drones, causing blackouts across most of Ukraine.
In Washington, the White House said President Joe Biden would travel to Polandfrom Feb. 20-22 to show support for Kyiv ahead of the first anniversary of Russia's invasion on Feb. 24 and make clear additional security assistance and aid will be coming from the United States.
"The president will make it very clear that the United States will continue to stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes," said John Kirby, spokesperson for the White House National Security Council.
International Monetary Fund staff will meet with Ukrainian officials in Warsaw next week, a source familiar with the plans said on Friday, as Ukraine presses for a multi-billion dollar borrowing program to cover its funding needs given Russia's war.
Global ratings agency Moody's on Friday downgraded Ukraine's sovereign ratingto Ca as it expects the war with Russia to create long-lasting challenges for the country. Moody's website said the rating means debt obligations are "likely in, or very near, default."
The latest Russian attacks came as Zelenskiy ended a tour of European allies where he was enthusiastically received but secured no public promises of the fighter jets he sought.
"London, Paris, Brussels - everywhere I spoke these past few days about how to strengthen our soldiers. There are very important understandings and we received good signals," he said in his nightly video address.
"This concerns long-range missiles and tanks and the next level of our cooperation - fighter aircraft."
Russia has repeatedly attacked civilian infrastructure far from the front lines, leaving millions of Ukrainians without power, heat or water for days at a time in the middle of winter.
The barrages have often followed Ukrainian diplomatic or battlefield advances.
Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said 10 Russian missiles had been shot down over the capital after sirens blared during the morning rush hour and weary civilians took shelter.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said Ukraine was without 44% of nuclear generation and 75% of thermal power capacity.
"This is a deliberate targeting of infrastructure that keeps Ukrainians alive in winter," U.S. State Department deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel said. Russia denies targeting civilians and says it targets Kyiv's war effort.
Ukraine has been bracing for a new Russian offensive, believing that after months of reverses President Vladimir Putin wants to tout a battlefield success before the anniversary of his Feb. 24 invasion. Ukrainian governors in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk said that thrust had begun.
Putin will give his delayed annual showcase address to parliament on Feb. 21, the date last year when he recognised as independent the parts of Donetsk and Luhansk that were controlled by Russian-backed separatists, a prelude to invading.
The complete capture of those provinces, among four Russia subsequently claimed to have annexed, would let Putin assert that one of his main priorities had been achieved.
RUSSIAN ADVANCES
Moscow's main recent focus has been Bakhmut, a small city from which most of the pre-war population of around 70,000 has fled, and the Ukranian military said it and surrounding areas had come under fresh tank, mortar and artillery fire.
After months of static artillery battles both sides call the "meat grinder", Russian forces have begun to encircle the city. Their troops include the Wagner private army that has recruited tens of thousands of convicts with a promise of pardons.
Russia's regular army is now also able to deploy many of the 300,000 or more men enlisted in a forced mobilisation late last year.
Britain's Defence Ministry said Wagner forces appeared to have advanced 2 to 3 kilometres (1 to 2 miles) around the north of Bakhmut since Tuesday - a rapid push in a battle where front lines have barely moved for months.
It said they were now threatening the main western access road to Bakhmut although a Ukrainian military analyst said supplies were still getting through.
Britain also said Russian forces had made some advances near Vuhledar, a Ukrainian-held bastion that has been a linchpin between the southern and eastern fronts, but the limited Russian gains there had likely come at a high cost, including at least 30 armoured vehicles abandoned in one failed assault.
Ukrainian positions in Vuhledar have held since the war started and this week's assault has been branded as a costly fiasco by some pro-war Russian military bloggers. Grey Zone, a semi-official Wagner channel on Telegram, said "a disaster is unfolding around Vuhledar, and it is unfolding again and again".
Reuters could not verify the battlefield reports.
Ukraine plans its own major military counteroffensive in the coming months to reclaim more of the nearly one fifth of Ukrainian territory that Russia occupies.
But it appears likely to wait until it has received at least some of the new weapons, including hundreds of battle tanks and armoured vehicles, promised lately by the West.
RT/TASS/Reuters
