WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Zelenskiy says some European leaders have promised aircraft

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday he had heard from several European Union leaders at a summit that they were ready to provide Kyiv with aircraft, hinting at what would be one of the biggest shifts yet in Western support for Ukraine.

Zelenskiy gave no further details about the pledges, and there was no immediate confirmation from any European countries. But his remarks came amid signs during a European tour that countries were edging closer to lifting one of the main taboos in military aid for Kyiv since Russia's invasion last year.

"Europe will be with us until our victory. I've heard it from a number of European leaders...about the readiness to give us the necessary weapons and support, including the aircraft," Zelenskiy told a news conference.

"I have a number of bilaterals now, we are going to raise the issue of the fighter jets and other aircraft," he said.

Zelenskiy's chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, posted on social media that the question of long-range weaponry and fighter jets for Ukraine "has been resolved" and details would follow. He later edited the post to make it less certain, changing the wording to say the issue "may be resolved".

Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak told Ukrainian TV: "We are holding talks, they are very intense. We will soon have a logistical understanding of when, where and how we can receive the instruments (aircraft and long-range weaponry) in addition to the armoured equipment."

Western countries that have provided Ukraine with arms have so far refused to send fighter jets or long-range weapons capable of striking deep inside Russia.

But the mood has appeared to have begun to shift during Zelenskiy's European tour, which began on Wednesday with a meeting in London with Britain's Rishi Sunak and dinner in Paris with France's Emmanuel Macron and Germany's Olaf Scholz.

Sunak promised to train Ukrainian pilots to fly advanced NATO fighter jets. He stopped short of offering to supply the planes, but said nothing was off the table.

Zelenskiy said that some of what he had been promised in Paris by Macron and Scholz was still secret.

"There are certain agreements which are not public, but which are positive. I don't want to prepare the Russian Federation, which is constantly threatening us with new aggressions," he said.

Nevertheless, Zelenskiy said in an interview with Germany's Spiegel magazine that Ukraine's relationship with the country goes up and down and he was "constantly having to convince" Scholz to help Ukraine for the sake of Europe.

Addressing the summit of the 27 leaders of EU countries, Zelenskiy called for tighter sanctions on Moscow and punishment for Russian leaders responsible for starting the war.

"I am grateful to all of you who are helping, grateful to everyone who understands how much Ukraine right now needs these possibilities. We need artillery guns, shells for them, modern tanks, long-range missiles, modern aircraft," he said.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said it would be Ukrainians who suffered if Britain or other Western countries supplied fighter jets to Kyiv, and that the line between indirect and direct Western involvement in the war was disappearing.

Such actions "lead to an escalation of tension, prolong the conflict and make the conflict more and more painful for Ukraine," Peskov said.

Summit chair Charles Michel said the EU needed to provide "maximum" support for Ukraine. "We understand that the coming weeks and months will be of decisive importance.

"Artillery, munitions, defence systems (...) you have told us exactly what you need and what you need now," Michel added.

Zelenskiy, making only his second trip outside Ukraine since the invasion following a visit to Washington in December, received a standing ovation in the European Parliament from lawmakers, some in blue and yellow Ukrainian colours.

In his speech he thanked Europeans for taking in millions of refugees - "helping our people, our ordinary citizens, our resettled people here" - and for calling on their own leaders for more support for Ukraine.

QUEST FOR EU MEMBERSHIP TALKS

Ukraine submitted its application to join the EU days after Russia launched its full-scale invasion last year, and now wants formal membership talks to start within months. A Ukrainian official said Kyiv was "absolutely sure the decision to start accession negotiations can be taken this year".

Some EU member states want to give Ukraine the morale boost that would come with opening the talks swiftly. But others are more cautious, stressing that would-be members must meet hurdles such as cracking down on corruption before talks can begin.

Russian forces have been advancing in recent weeks for the first time in half a year, fortified with tens of thousands of freshly mobilised recruits, in relentless winter battles that both sides describe as some of the bloodiest of the war.

Kyiv says it expects Moscow to broaden that offensive with a big push as the invasion's Feb. 24 anniversary approaches.

Russia said it had destroyed four Ukrainian artillery depots in the Donetsk region. Ukraine's military said that over past 24 hours, Russian troops maintained offensives in the regions of Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Novopavlivka and Vuhledar.

Serhiy Haidai, Ukraine's governor of the mostly Russian-occupied eastern Luhansk province, described a major new Russian assault around Kreminna, along a northern stretch of the eastern front. "So far they have had no significant success, our defence forces are holding firmly there," he told Ukrainian television.

Reuters could not immediately verify the battlefield accounts.

Russia launched the war it calls a "special military operation" to combat what it describes as a security threat from Ukraine's ties to the West. Ukraine and the West say Russia's invasion is an unprovoked land grab.

** taly bristles over Zelenskiy dinner snub in Paris

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni criticised France and Germany on Thursday after she was not invited to a dinner in Paris with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, adding to friction between the European Union allies.

French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met Zelenskiy on Wednesday evening ahead of an EU summit on Thursday.

But unlike last year, when the then-Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi worked hand-in-hand with Macron and Scholz on Ukraine, Meloni was left out in the cold.

Speaking to reporters as she arrived at the Brussels summit, Meloni, who took office last October, said she thought the snub was "inappropriate".

"I think our strength in this fight is unity," she added.

She later met Zelenskiy on the sidelines of the EU meeting.

Asked about her comments, Macron said he thought Wednesday's dinner had been fitting.

"As you know, Germany and France have had a special role on the Ukraine question for eight years," he told reporters, referring to joint mediation by the two countries that tried, and failed, to prevent conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

However, things were different when Draghi, a former president of the European Central Bank, was prime minister. Draghi travelled with Macron and Scholz to Kyiv by train last June and played a leading role with them in shaping EU opposition to Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.

Meloni has pledged to maintain the same pro-Ukraine stance, despite the misgivings of some of her coalition allies, telling reporters on Thursday that providing help to Kyiv was the best way to bring about peace.

Underscoring her willingness to support Kyiv, Italy and France finalised technical talks last week for the joint delivery of a SAMP/T-MAMBA air defence system to Ukraine in spring of this year.

However, Meloni's brand of nationalist politics has put her at odds with both Macron and Scholz on an array of other issues and the close ties that Draghi forged with Paris and Berlin seem a distant memory.

Paris last November accused Meloni's new government of breaking a bond of trust and breaching international laws by refusing to take in migrants saved by a charity rescue ship. The boat eventually docked in France instead.

Earlier this week, French and German ministers flew to Washington together to discuss contested U.S. subsidies with their U.S. counterparts, excluding Italy, which is the second-largest manufacturer in the European Union after Germany.

** SpaceX curbed Ukraine's use of Starlink internet for drones

SpaceX has taken steps to prevent Ukraine's military from using the company's Starlink satellite internet service for controlling drones in the region during the country's war with Russia, SpaceX's president said Wednesday.

SpaceX's Starlink satellite internet service, which has provided Ukraine's military with broadband communications in its defense against Russia's military, was "never never meant to be weaponized," Gwynne Shotwell, SpaceX's president and chief operating officer, said during a conference in Washington, D.C.

"However, Ukrainians have leveraged it in ways that were unintentional and not part of any agreement," she said.

Speaking later with reporters, Shotwell referred to reports that the Ukrainian military had used the Starlink service to control drones.

Ukraine has made effective use of unmanned aircraft for spotting enemy positions, targeting long-range fires and dropping bombs.

"There are things that we can do to limit their ability to do that," she said, referring to Starlink's use with drones. "There are things that we can do, and have done."

Using Starlink with drones went beyond the scope of an agreement SpaceX has with the Ukrainian government, Shotwell said, adding the contract was intended for humanitarian purposes such as providing broadband internet to hospitals, banks and families affected by Russia's invasion.

"We know the military is using them for comms, and that's ok," she said. "But our intent was never to have them use it for offensive purposes."

SpaceX has privately shipped truckloads of Starlink terminals to Ukraine, allowing the country's military to communicate by plugging them in and connecting them with the nearly 4,000 satellites SpaceX has launched into low-Earth orbit so far.

Governments including the United States and France have paid for other shipments of Starlink terminals on top of those funded privately by SpaceX.

Russia has attempted to jam Starlink signals in the region, though SpaceX countered by hardening the service's software, Elon Musk, the company's chief executive, has said.

Asked if SpaceX had anticipated Starlink's use for offensive purposes in Ukraine when deciding to ship terminals into conflict zones, Shotwell said: "We didn't think about it. I didn't think about it. Our starlink team may have, I don't know. But we learned pretty quickly."

Starlink had suffered services outages in Ukraine late last year, for reasons SpaceX did not explain.

Asked if those outages were related to SpaceX’s efforts to curb offensive use of Starlink, Shotwell said: “I don’t want to answer it because I’m not sure I know the answer.”

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

** Hostilities in Ukraine have been going on since 2014, Russia seeks to end them — Putin

Russia did not begin hostilities in Ukraine, but it is trying to stop them, as hostilities have been going on since 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin said during a meeting with aviation industry representatives Thursday.

"I would like to say it one more time: we did not start any hostilities, we are trying to end them. These hostilities were started by Ukrainian nationalists and those who supported them in 2014, when the coup took place; that is how it all began, the events in Crimea and in Donbass followed after that," the head of state said.

Putin pointed out that Kiev started the war against Donbass in 2014, and, in violation of all agreements and obligations, effectively blockaded the Donbass regions.

"Heavy military vehicles were used against them, major military operations were carried out against them," the head of state noted. "This is when they started the war. It lasted for eight years and aimed to exterminate the people who live there and feel themselves tied to Russia, Russian culture and the Russian language by blood. How long could we have kept tolerating it?"

The President also thanked the participants of the meeting for their support of the special military operation.

** Ukraine’s entry to NATO would spell world war, Hungary warns

The Hungarian government does not back Ukraine’s aspiration to join NATO and makes Kiev’s potential entry to the EU contingent on protecting the rights of Ukraine’s national minorities, Minister of the Prime Minister’s Office Gergely Gulyas told reporters Thursday.

Answering a question regarding Ukraine’s desire to join NATO, he noted that any country can file a membership application.

"However, right now, Ukraine’s immediate accession to NATO would mean world war," Gulyas cautioned.

Speaking about the prospects of Ukraine’s EU membership, he underscored that Kiev must ensure progress in protecting the rights of national minorities - particularly, Ukraine’s Hungarians in the Trans-Carpathian Region - if it wants Budapest to endorse its membership application. So far, legislation on education and the national language, adopted in Ukraine, "does not comply with European norms." "Progress has to be made" on these issues, the Hungarian official emphasized.

** Much-hyped tanks for Ukraine in short supply

NATO members have developed “sudden misgivings” about sending tanks to Ukraine because they don’t seem to have any to spare, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday. Finland, which pressured Germany to approve exports of Leopard 2 tanks, may only be able to send “a few” of its own – and most likely not until it formally joins the US-led military bloc.

This has left Berlin as the only major supplier of tanks to Kiev, something Chancellor Olaf Scholz had been keen to avoid, the Journal noted. 

There are more than 2,000 Leopard 2 tanks in the stocks of various European NATO armies, but only Berlin and Warsaw have committed to sending any. Germany and Poland have promised about 14 apiece. Warsaw will also throw in 60 of its modified T-72s, while Berlin is buying up almost 190 decommissioned Leopard 1s for refurbishment, some of which may need to be cannibalized for parts.

In a December interview, Ukraine’s top general asked for 300 tanks right away. Canada has promised four tanks, while Portugal wants to send three.

“The fact that there are so few operational battle tanks and that they are so incompatible with each other should be taken as an alarm signal in Europe,” Nico Lange, a former German defense official who is now a senior fellow at the Munich Security Conference, told the Journal.

The Netherlands and Denmark will not send any of their tanks, but agreed to help Germany fund the purchase and refurbishment of around 100 older Leopard 1 models, which were retired 20 years ago and are currently in various states of disrepair. 

Denmark only has 44 Leopards and the Dutch operate 18 that are on lease from Germany, noted Minna Alander of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. Finland faces a different “limitation” due to its own need to protect the country’s long border with Russia, she added.

Finland will be “part of the Leopard 2 cooperation in some way,” an anonymous senior official told the Journal, but declined to give any details. Helsinki has “signaled” it would “most likely” avoid tank deliveries until it officially joins NATO, according to a senior bloc official, likewise unnamed. Even then, it may only be able to spare a few of its 240 operational tanks.

The UK has promised 14 of its Challenger 2 tanks, saying they ought to be delivered by the end of March. The US pledged 31 Abrams tanks as well, but getting them to Ukraine might take up to two years. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has already moved on, demanding fighter jets on his trip to London, Paris and Brussels.

The US and its allies have spent over $120 billion to prop up the Kiev government over the past year, while insisting they are not a party to the conflict. Moscow has warned them that supplying Ukraine with weapons only prolongs the fighting and risks direct confrontation.

** Zelensky takes credit for derailing Minsk agreements

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky personally refused to implement the 2015 Minsk agreements – a roadmap for peace in the east of the country, which was co-sponsored by Germany and France.

He made the admission during an interview with Der Spiegel published on Thursday as he continues his tour across Europe.

Zelensky said he viewed the agreements as a “concession” on Ukraine’s part, and never once actually sought to implement them. Instead, they were merely used to exchange prisoners with the two breakaway Donbass republics.

The president claimed he openly told that to then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Emmanuel Macron, and Russian President Vladimir Putin back in 2019, with all of them acting “surprised.”

“But as for Minsk as a whole, I told Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel: ‘We cannot implement it like this,’” Zelensky stated. “I told [Putin] the same as the other two. They were surprised and said: ‘If we had known beforehand that you would change the meaning of our meeting, then there would have been problems even before the summit.’”

The Minsk agreements, originally brokered in 2014 and further expanded in 2015, envisioned a roadmap for reconciliation between Ukraine and the Donbass republics of Donetsk and Lugansk. The two regions rebelled against the country’s new authorities in the aftermath of the 2014 Maidan coup in Kiev, which ousted democratically elected President Viktor Yanukovich.

Ukraine’s failure to implement the agreement, which would have seen the breakaway territories reintegrated with the country but retain a special status, ultimately led to the ongoing conflict.

Since the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, multiple politicians have taken credit for the failure of the Minsk agreements, admitting they were merely a ruse to give Ukraine time to build up its military. Former Ukrainian president Pyotr Poroshenko was the first to admit last year that Kiev never intended to abide by them and used the deal to “create powerful armed forces.”

Merkel and another original signatory of the Minsk agreements, former French president Francois Hollande, have also since confirmed that this was actually the true goal of the deal.

Moscow considers these admissions to be evidence that the negotiations were conducted in bad faith and that the Ukrainian government and its backers had always intended for the Minsk agreements to flop and for the Donbass crisis to be resolved by force. Russia claims that its military campaign in Ukraine, launched last February, preempted an offensive planned by Kiev with NATO’s help. Ukraine, Germany, and France “lied to the people of Donbass, as they had a terrible fate planned for them, which Russia prevented,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said back in January.

“Germany, France and Ukraine were playing a swindle game with the Minsk agreements. Now is payback time,” he stated at the time.

Reuters/RT/TASS