RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE
Simple logic indicates that only a Russian victory in Ukraine would prevent a nuclear world war, former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said on Tuesday, addressing calls from the West that Moscow must not be allowed to win.
“Follow the simple formal logic,” Medvedev argued on Telegram. “If Russia can’t win, then apparently Ukraine must. Ukraine’s war objective, as named by the Kiev regime, is the return of all territories previously belonging to it – that is, their separation from Russia.”
This, Medvedev explained, would qualify as a threat to the territorial integrity of Russia and therefore “a direct reason for applying Clause 19” of the Russian state doctrine on nuclear deterrence – referring to the circumstances in which the use of atomic weapons by Moscow would be warranted.
“So tell me, who is then pushing for nuclear war? What is this, if not directly provoking a world war with the use of atomic weapons? Let’s call things by their proper name,” Medvedev wrote.
Medvedev currently serves as deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council. Before that, he was the Russian prime minister (2012-2020) and president (2008-2012). He has been outspoken on social networks since the escalation of hostilities in Ukraine.
Russia sent troops into Ukraine on February 24, citing Kiev’s failure to implement the Minsk agreements, designed to give the regions of Donetsk and Lugansk special status within the Ukrainian state. The protocols, brokered by Germany and France, were first signed in 2014. Former Ukrainian president Pyotr Poroshenko has since admitted that Kiev’s main goal was to use the ceasefire to buy time and “create powerful armed forces.”
In February 2022, the Kremlin recognized the Donbass republics as independent states and demanded that Ukraine officially declare itself a neutral country that will never join any Western military bloc. Kiev insists the Russian offensive was completely unprovoked.
*Kiev should provide “real guarantees” that it would not use the Black Sea corridor created as part of an Istanbul grain deal in its military activities, Russian President Vladimir Putin told Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in a phone conversation on Tuesday. The two were discussing the circumstances that could convince Moscow to return to its own commitments under the agreement.
Russia indefinitely suspended its participation in the deal last week following a massive drone attack on its naval base in the Crimean port city of Sevastopol. Some of the naval drones launched by Kiev allegedly used the Black Sea grain corridor’s security zone to close in on their targets, according to the Russian military.
“It is necessary to conduct a detailed investigation of … this incident, as well as to get real guarantees from Kiev that it would rigorously abide by the Istanbul agreements, including the non-use of the humanitarian corridor for military purposes,” the Russian president said, according to the Kremlin’s press release.
Russia would only consider re-opening this corridor if that happened, Putin added. He also pointed out that the part of the deal that involved lifting restrictions on Russia’s own agricultural and fertilizer exports had never been implemented.
The corridor was touted as a way to secure food supplies to the neediest nations as a matter of priority. But this goal has not been reached in the three months since the agreement was established, Putin noted. Moscow is now ready to supply African nations with “large volumes” of grain and fertilizers out of its own stocks for free, the president confirmed.
The Russian military closed the Black Sea grain corridor on Monday, arguing that its security could not be guaranteed while Kiev used it for military purposes. Moscow had previously blamed Ukraine and UK Navy specialists for the attack on Sevastopol. London has dismissed the accusation.
The Russian Defense Ministry said that the corridor would stay closed at least until all the circumstances of the attack were established. Russia has also repeatedly said that it has not left the deal entirely but only suspended its own commitments under the agreement.
In the wake of Moscow’s decision, the UN insisted that “food must flow”regardless of the circumstances. Civilian vessels “can never be a military target or held hostage,” the UN coordinator for the Black Sea grain initiative, Amir Abdulla, said.
WESTERN PERSPECTIVE
The world must respond firmly to any Russian attempts to disrupt Ukraine's grain export corridor, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said, as more ships were loading despite Moscow suspending its participation in a U.N.-brokered deal.
One of the global consequences of Russia's war on its neighbour has been food shortages and a cost of living crisis in many countries, and a deal brokered by the United Nations and Turkey on July 22 had provided safe passage for vessels carrying grain and other fertiliser exports.
Russia withdrew from the accord over the weekend, saying it could not guarantee safety for civilian ships because of an attack on its Black Sea fleet.
In a late Tuesday night video address, Zelenskiy said ships were still moving out of Ukrainian ports with cargoes thanks to the work of Turkey and the United Nations.
"But a reliable and long-term defence is needed for the grain corridor," Zelenskiy said.
"Russia must clearly be made aware that it will receive a tough response from the world to any steps to disrupt our food exports," Zelenskiy said. "At issue here clearly are the lives of tens of millions of people."
The grains deal aimed to help avert famine in poorer countries by injecting more wheat, sunflower oil and fertilizer into world markets and to ease a dramatic rise in prices. It targeted the pre-war level of 5 million metric tonnes exported from Ukraine each month.
The U.N. coordinator for grain and fertiliser exports under the accord said on Twitter on Tuesday that he expects loaded ships to leave Ukrainian ports on Thursday. Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov said on Twitter that eight vessels were expected to pass through the corridor on Thursday.
Having spoken to his Russian counterpart twice in as many days, Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar hoped the deal would continue, adding that he expected a response from Russia "today and tomorrow".
POWER CUTS
Russia fired missiles at Ukrainian cities including the capital Kyiv in what President Vladimir Putin called retaliation for an attack on Russia's Black Sea Fleet over the weekend. Ukraine said it shot most of those missiles down, but some had hit power stations, knocking out electricity and water supplies.
Nine regions were experiencing power cuts.
"We will do everything we can to provide power and heat for the coming winter," Zelenskiy said. "But we must understand that Russia will do everything it can to destroy normal life."
The United States denounced the attacks, saying about 100 missiles had been fired on Monday and Tuesday targeting water and energy supplies.
"With temperatures dropping, these Russian attacks aimed at exacerbating human suffering are particularly heinous," State Department spokesperson Ned Price told reporters at a daily briefing. Russia denies targeting civilians.
KHERSON EVACUATIONS
Russia told civilians on Tuesday to leave an area along the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in the Ukrainian province of Kherson, a major extension of an evacuation order that Kyiv says amounts to the forced depopulation of occupied territory.
Russia had previously ordered civilians out of a pocket it controls on the west bank of the river, where Ukrainian forces have been advancing for weeks with the aim of capturing the city of Kherson, the first city that Russian forces took control over after invading Ukraine on Feb. 24.
Russian-installed officials said on Tuesday they were extending that order to a 15-km (9-mile) buffer zone along the east bank too. Ukraine says the evacuations include forced deportations from occupied territory, a war crime.
The mouth of the Dnipro has become one of the most consequential frontlines in the war.
Seven towns on the east bank would be evacuated, comprising the main populated settlements along that stretch of the river, Vladimir Saldo, Russian-installed head of occupied Kherson province, said in a video message.
Russian-installed authorities in the Kherson region also said an obligatory evacuation of Kakhovka district, close to the Nova Kakhovka hydroelectric station, was to begin on Nov. 6.
Moscow has accused Kyiv of planning to use a so-called "dirty bomb" to spread radiation, or to blow up a dam to flood towns and villages in Kherson province. Kyiv says accusations it would use such tactics on its own territory are absurd, but that Russia might be planning such actions itself to blame Ukraine.
In the city of Bakhmut, a target of Russia's armed forces in their slow advance through the eastern Donetsk region, some residents were refusing to leave as fighting intensified.
"Only the strongest stayed," said Lyubov Kovalenko, a 65-year-old retiree. "Let’s put it this way, the poor ones. Everyone is wearing whatever clothing we have left."
Rodion Miroshnik, "ambassador" of the neighbouring Russian-occupied region of Luhansk, said Russian troops and their allies had repelled Ukrainian attacks on the towns of Kreminna and Bilohorivka.
Moscow describes its actions in Ukraine as a "special military operations to demilitarise and "denazify" its neighbour. Ukraine and Western nations have dismissed this as a baseless pretext for invasion.
RT/Reuters
