PRESS RELEASE

State of the Nation

We want to seize the opportunity of this major event today to lend our voice to the issues relating to the development of our dear country Nigeria.

It is a critical role of the Church of Jesus Christ within any geographical border to positively impact her system of governance, growth and development, and to clearly contribute towards the delivery of other social outputs that are crucial to nation building.

We thank God for the just concluded election and that Nigeria is on the march again with the new administration to drive the country for better prosperity in the next four years.

But we cannot be oblivious to the facts on the ground which we would like the new leadership to be guided with as it articulates its strategies for the new administration.

Today, it is glaringly observable that, in our beloved nation Nigeria, God’s commandments regarding justice, integrity, humility, love, fairness and equity are being neglected and relegated to the background. This leaves so much room for concern because, as history teaches us, whenever the right religious/moral foundations of a nation are eroded, the glory of such a nation equally follows that pattern.

Of course, vices don’t come without social consequences. In some quarters today, patriotism and due respect for national identities have degenerated into agitations and disillusionment, simply because of real or perceived political injustices, impunity, greed and vain pursuits with which some of our political leaders are glaringly guilty of and we would like the new administration to correct all these anomalies.

2023 Election and Inauguration 

We bless God for the last general election. It was such a crucial one in the history of our dear nation. The issues surrounding it are many and compelling.

We struggled with a Moslem-Moslem ticket which we considered as a slap on the face of the highly and eminently qualified Christians in the nation. We perceived it as a sly way of edging out Christ-based views in governance. It was also apparently seen as a further entrenchment of Islam as a prominent and dominant religion in the nation.

These concerns are founded on past and present blatant infractions on the basic rights of Christians all over the Nation.

Recently, a former governor of Kaduna State, El-Rufai, was carelessly playing to the gallery on this subject when he gleefully referred to what he reportedly termed the “Islamic domination” as a result of the inauguration of the Moslem-Moslem ticket.

I feel like reminding him that anyone that mocks Christ must await his/her spiritual Waterloo, and anyone that ridicules His Body — the Church — must be ready for a just desert sooner than later.

It is worthy of note that the youths also spoke loudly through their votes at a point in the electoral process. Definitely the signs of discontent were quite loud for the wise to note and annotate. 

The inauguration ceremony itself was also held on a background of strong contentions from some sections who felt a great sense of dissatisfaction with the process that set the stage for it.

Albeit, our own take at this stage is that it is time for all parties to bury the hatchet and work together. Let us make this administration work for the collective interest of all Nigerians.

Unity In The Polity

We will all agree that Nigeria’s polity was greatly polarized during the last election. In the history of the nation, no election had a more monstrous effect on the unity of the nation than the last one.

Issues of tribe, religion and other sentiments escalated beyond reason. Tension was heightened and divisions worsened on all sides.

It is quite obvious that key players in the political realm orchestrated these splits, skillfully manipulating and arm-twisting simple minded people in an orchestra of lies and deception.

While these were done to garner some undue advantages, they actually has injured the soul of the nation more. It is our plea that this new administration do the needful in mending fences with all the aggrieved sections of the nation. This is to ensure that true peace prevails in the nation.

Moreover, let’s be reminded that it is within the right of anyone to differ from your political standpoints during the electioneering process. Now that the election period is over, however, we must choose to close ranks as good, responsible and matured Nigerians.

Let’s resist the temptation of playing the games of vendetta in anyway imaginable, keeping in mind that whatever worked for you now could have worked against you if not for the grace of God.

Inclusivity

The last administration created a woeful scene, bedeviled by lopsided appointments and implementation of critical policies in favour of a particular ethnic group.

People from other parts of the nation became mere spectators in a country belonging to every one of us. This injustice was perpetrated with utter disdain for the injured feelings of others.

If Nigeria, in spite of its diversities, is truly a nation where everyone is equal, let this new administration show a clear departure from the past by embracing inclusiveness, irrespective of ethnicity, religion, region or gender.

Rule of Law

Rule of law is a basic principle and a critical bedrock of democracy. In an egalitarian society all should be governed by the same ethics and bound by the same laws. 

No one is above the law, or should be above the law, and governmental decisions must be made by applying across board only known legal and moral principles. 

A situation whereby some are regarded as sacred cows must be abolished. Let the law be applied equally and fairly as it’s done in every sane society.

Subsidy Removal
Since the new administration came in barely two weeks ago, the nation has been engulfed with the issue of fuel subsidy removal and the aftermath effects. 

Fortunately, almost everyone has a clear understanding that the subsidy is not sustainable as only a few rich individuals, as well as some countries bordering Nigeria, have been benefiting from it at our corporate expense.

For instance, I just read that some groups of people were protesting the subsidy removal in faraway Cameroon. Shocking, isn’t it?

It is clearly unsustainable for us as a nation to be spending trillions of Naira in the payment of subsidies.

The fact on the ground also shows that the financial situation of this country is in dire straits and the amount of money we are using to service debt is almost becoming higher than our revenue.

In addition, our exchange rate is not stable and these are determinants of import-driven products.

Meanwhile, we all know that with inflation in the system, the removal of subsidy would further worsen the situation and impose more difficulties on the citizenry.

Whereas we commend government for talking about putting in place some palliative measures. Nevertheless, we hold the view that as the new government is just coming in, it should have had a dialogue with the stakeholders before making such a pronouncement which has since thrown the nation into a frenzy.

There's no doubt that until we produce locally what we consume, every other talk is merely political. And, until we refine petroleum products locally, we cannot make a headway.

Hence, we want to emphasize the need for the Federal Government to bring back the Nation's refineries and create an enabling environment for investment in the refining business sector to thrive.

We also support those advocating for the adoption of the NLNG model in the running of the nation’s refineries when fully revamped and the creation of an enabling environment for the establishment and operation of modular and private refineries. 

We use this medium to commend and to congratulate all the major stakeholders involved in the newly commissioned Dangote Refinery.

We believe that this new refinery will bring a significant impact on the fuel supply dynamics, including easing pressure on the economy, especially when combined with the ongoing revamping of the other refineries in the country.

However, we wish to urge them to be wary of the temptation of monopoly and be mindful of the domino impacts of such business concepts on the generality of Nigerians, especially the poor.
A Review of the National Debt Crisis

Evidently, our beloved nation is in a debt crisis. According to reliable sources, by May 2023, Nigeria’s total public debt stock had increased to N46.25 trillion or $103.11 billion.  

While many are looking for debt relief to keep the repayment at a minimum level to enable us sort out some of our investment needs and compelling current obligations such as expenditures on infrastructure, education and health, it does not provide a sustainable or permanent solution because the amount left unpaid will keep piling up as arrears and gets added to the principal amount making the debt larger.

The bottom line is that we cannot afford to service all of our debt unless we are really prepared to commit to very little investment in our physical and human resources for the next two decades.

We cannot also afford to allow the debt to pile up. So, this means that this administration must search for a permanent workable solution to our debt problem. The search for this solution is therefore a key priority and a vital financial and economic issue for the country, not only for the present generation but also for our yet unborn generations.

While we do not outrightly condemn borrowing, we support the school of thought that borrowed funds should not be used for consumption on recurrent expenditure, but rather channeled into productive ventures and infrastructural development. Nevertheless, we expect to see a different approach to borrowing from the current administration.
The Economy

The current state of our economy is of great concern to us as we had hoped to see steady growth in our GDP, increased access to employment for our teeming population and diversification of the economy, but unfortunately, we are yet to achieve that. 

Poor implementation of both fiscal and monetary policies and policy inconsistencies have continued to militate against our projected growth and development as a Nation.

The nation’s economy is confronted with many serious challenges like structural imbalance, corruption, weak human capital development, inequality, security challenges and excessive dependence on oil for revenue.

High youth unemployment, which was recently highlighted by the International Labour Organization (ILO), underemployment and poor infrastructural facilities are some of the key challenges this new government should tackle with sound and coordinated strategy in consultation with relevant stakeholders.

In our previous address, we have extensively discussed diversification of the economy and this is the time for its implementation as a matter of urgency.

Truth is that revenue from the Oil and Gas sector can no longer sustain us as a Nation, and this is the most auspicious time to shift our attention to the Agricultural sector and other areas like Solid Minerals, Tourism, and Technology.
Insecurity
2023 began with sad tales of the burning of a Catholic Priest in Niger state, kidnap of a DPO in Jos, attack on church worshipers in Katsina community and the abduction of 23 train passengers in Edo State.

These, coupled with news of near daily occurrences of kidnappings along the nation’s highways especially the Lagos- Ibadan Expressway, do not speak well of our dear nation, Nigeria.

Citizens of Southern Kaduna and Benue are gradually becoming extinct due to unending attacks, killings and the resulting displacement.

This growing insecurity in the land is heart-rending and therefore a nightmare to citizens, investors and visitors.

The numerous cases of alleged herdsmen attacks even on farms, organized kidnappings, perennial killings and other associated stories on avoidable waste of human lives and property across Nigeria are unacceptable and condemnable.

Nigerians deserve to be adequately protected by the Government against these monstrous marauders.

The fact that it has become sustained not only suggests an orchestration and a strong organization by those sponsoring the upsurge to spill more innocent Nigerians' blood, but also a clear manifestation of leadership challenge at all levels in the country because security of lives and property remains the essence of any Government.

We therefore expect that the new administration should immediately review the current security strategy, rejig the entire security architecture, provide more funding and shift from a reactionary approach to focusing on intelligence gathering that will proactively help to nip such planned attacks in the bud.
Power Sector Crisis

In spite of the fact that electricity is considered a major determinant of economic development, access to electricity, that is, supply to homes and businesses has remained dismal in Nigeria on the backdrop of a flawed privatization exercise. 

Averaging 4,500 megawatts in the past eight years, Nigerians are looking forward to improved electricity supply.  

It is our earnest hope that the new Electricity Act 2023, which replaces the 2005 Electricity and Power Sector Reform Act will promote private sector investments in the Nigerian power sector and break the monopoly of the nation’s electricity generation, transmission and distribution.

If the act really means that the entire process has been decentralized, then we can expect the best for both private and commercial consumers of energy.

The focus on clean, renewable and alternative sources of power generation should also be strengthened and made accessible to all classes of people in the society.

We pray earnestly that the Tinubu led administration will see to the implementation of this Act in a manner that the benefits can be credited to the well-being of our people.

War Against Corruption

Reports of numerous probe panels instituted especially by the two chambers of the National Assembly and other Agencies of Government have been more entertaining to the public than fighting against corruption.

It is more worrisome and embarrassing where key anti-graft personnels are involved in monumental corrupt practices with damaging consequences to the image of the country, especially in the eyes of potential foreign investors.

Consequently, we expect from this government that henceforth appointments into the top echelon of all Anti- Corruption Agencies like EFCC, ICPC and Code of Conduct Bureau be thorough, painstaking and devoid of any political consideration so that the integrity of those at the helm of affairs shall not be called to question as we have seen in recent times.  

The fight against corruption should not only be fought, but must be seen to be fought with prosecutions and convictions with severe sanctions that will serve as a deterrence to anyone planning to toe such a path.
Education
Education is at the center of building human capital. The latest World Bank research shows that the productivity of 56 percent of the world’s children could be better if they enjoyed complete education and full health.  

For individuals, education raises self-esteem and opens up opportunities for employment and earnings. And, for a country, it helps strengthen institutions within societies, drives long-term economic growth, reduces poverty, and spurs innovation. 

It is our expectation that the new administration will do all it can to equip our youths with the skills to keep learning, adapt to changing realities, and thrive in an increasingly competitive global economy.
Agriculture and the Looming Food Crisis

There is disturbing data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) predicting that about 25.3 million people will face food insecurity across Nigeria between June and August 2023. 

FAO in the statement warned that if actions are not taken to avert the crisis, 4.4 million people in Borno, Adamawa and Yobe States will be severely affected. 

It is a shame that despite our vast arable lands and huge human capital and financial resources, our dear country could be categorized as being unable to feed its citizens.

It is even more laughable that Nigeria is accepting food aids from countries under war situations such as Ukraine.

We expect the government to declare a state of emergency in the Agriculture and Food sector, while establishing farm settlements across all the states of the federation that will convert our teeming unemployed youths into productive ventures to avert the looming food crisis.
Conclusion
In spite of the situations in the nation, we are happy to report that the Church of Jesus Christ is marching on and the forces of hell shall never prevail against it. Amen. 

We will continue to lift up our leaders in prayers as instructed in the Bible in 1 Timothy 2:1-2. It says: “I exhort therefore, that, first of all, supplications, prayers, intercessions, and giving of thanks, be made for all men; For kings, and for all that are in authority; that we may lead a quiet and peaceable life in all godliness and honesty”.

I seize this opportunity to enjoin all Christians and indeed all Nigerians to remain focused and calm, and to support and pray for the success of our political leaders irrespective of our diverse political persuasions so that the plans of the Lord for the prosperity of this nation can see the light of day.

Prayers still work. And it will work for Nigeria in Jesus mighty name. Amen.
** Bishop Taiwo Akinola,
Apostolic Presbyter, CGN Inc.
Pastor-General & President, RCC&T Int’l delivered this address at the New-Wine/Fresh Fire Conference organized by Christ Global Network on Saturday, June 10, 2023, at Rhema Christian Church & Towers, Ota, Ogun State, Nigeria.

 

President Bola Tinubu has suspended Godwin Emefiele as governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

The office of the secretary to the government of the federation (SGF) announced his suspension.

Willie Bassey, director of information, SGF office, in a statement issued on Friday, said the suspension is with immediate effect.

According to the statement, Emefiele is to transfer his responsibilities to the deputy governor, operations directorate.

Folashodun Adebisi Shonubi, the deputy governor, is expected to act as the CBN governor pending the conclusion of an investigation of Emefiele’s office.

“This is sequel to the ongoing investigation of his office and the planned reforms in the financial sector of the economy,” the statement reads.

“Emefiele has been directed to immediately hand over the affairs of his office to the Deputy Governor (Operations Directorate), who will act as the Central Bank Governor pending the conclusion of investigation and the reforms.”

Emefiele was one of the top officials who met with Tinubu on his first day in office as president.

During his inaugural speech, Tinubu said the current 18.5 percent interest rate of the CBN is “too high”.

Tinubu said it needed to be adjusted downwards to encourage investment.

He described the interest rate as “anti-people” and “anti-business”.

“Monetary policy needs thorough house cleaning. The Central Bank must work towards a unified exchange rate. This will direct funds away from arbitrage into meaningful investment in the plant, equipment and jobs that power the real economy,” Tinubu said.

“Interest rates need to be reduced to increase investment and consumer purchasing in ways that sustain the economy at a higher level.”

The president also said his administration will review the Naira redesign policy.

In the build-up to the last general election, members of Tinubu’s party — the All Progressives Congress (APC) — accused Emefiele of using the policy to hurt the chances of the president in the poll.

 

The Cable

President Bola Tinubu has assented to the electricity bill, which empowers states, companies and individuals to generate, transmit, and distribute electricity.

The new electricity law repeals the Electricity and Power Sector Reform Act of 2005 and consolidates the laws relating to the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI).

The senate passed the electricity bill in July 2022 to solve the sector’s challenges.

On the other hand, President Muhammadu Buhari had signed 16 constitutional amendments in 2022, one of which pertains to the devolution of powers (national grid system) – clarifying the powers of the federal government and states to generate, transmit, and distribute electricity.

Consequently, states have been granted constitutional authority to enact laws that allow them to generate, distribute, and transport electricity within its boundaries, including territories formerly covered only by the national grid.

Speaking on the enactment of the new act, Tinubu, during an interactive session with traditional rulers on Friday, said the constitutional amendment permits Nigeria’s 36 states to generate electricity.

‘‘That’s devolution of power and that should be our contribution to the developmental projects you are looking for and we will continue in ways that will help our people,’’ he said.

NEW ELECTRICITY ACT: AN OMNIBUS FOR POST-PRIVATISATION PHASE

Meanwhile, the newly-signed act provides an omnibus and ideal institutional framework for the post-privatisation phase of Nigeria’s power sector in the areas of generation, transmission, distribution, supply, trading, and general use of electricity.

According to the document, the primary objective of the regulation is to create a comprehensive legal and institutional framework to guide the operation of a privatised, contract, and rule-based competitive electricity market in Nigeria.

It also aims to attract, through transformative policy and regulatory measures, private sector investments in the entire power value chain of the NESI.

Additionally, it provides a framework for the improvement of access to electricity in rural, unserved, underserved, peri-urban, and urban areas through the use of conventional sources and renewable energy off-grid and mini-grid solutions.

Under the law, states would be able to issue licenses to private investors who have the ability to operate mini-grids and power plants, but such licenses would not apply to the distribution of electricity between states or internationally.

FUNCTIONS OF NERC

According to the electricity act, until a state has passed its electricity market laws, the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) will continue to regulate electricity business exclusively carried out in those states.

The Electricity Reform Act, 2005, also empowers the NERC to oversee the electricity industry activities, including licencing and regulating persons engaged in the generation, transmission, and system operation.

The new electricity act said NERC would continue this function.

The regulation also states that the commission will promote competition and private sector participation in the post-privatised power sector, “when and where feasible; establish appropriate obligations regarding the provision and use of electricity services”.

 

The Cable

Nigeria's downstream oil regulator has alleged ExxonMobil Corp was involved in the illegal lifting of petroleum products from an offshore terminal, according to a letter of complaint to the petroleum ministry seen by Reuters.

Exxon denied the accusation, saying in an emailed response that its "operations are carried out in full compliance with the law".

Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) said in the letter that Barumk Gas, a shipping vessel, was lifting butane from the ExxonMobil-controlled Bonny River Terminal without its "authorization or participation".

According to the law, the regulator is the only one allowed to have a key to the oil valve and companies need to be accompanied by a member of the regulatory staff to tap the oil.

"The actions of ExxonMobil and Barumk Gas constitute economic sabotage, criminal damage and theft of Nigeria's national resources," NMDPRA Chief Executive Farouk Ahmed said in the letter dated June 8.

He said Barumk Gas should be stopped from sailing out until an investigation was conducted.

Refinitiv data showed Barumk Gas was fully loaded at the Bonny Terminal.

The Petroleum Ministry and NMDPRA did not respond to requests for comment.

In November last year, a Nigerian court charged 26 men with conspiracy to commit a maritime offence and attempting to illegally deal in crude oil after authorities accused their supertanker of sailing in Nigerian waters without authority.

Oil majors in Nigeria have in the past been forced to halt output following the illegal tapping of pipelines.

 

Reuters

Two ad hoc officers of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) on Friday told the Presidential Election Petition Court in Abuja that they were instructed not to give election results sheets to political party agents who refused to sign the documents.

The subpoenaed witnesses – Abidemi Joseph and Grace Ajagbonna – appeared before the five-member panel of the court chaired by Haruna Tsammani to testify in the petition filed by Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) challenging President Bola Tinubu’s victory.

Atiku and Mr Obi are urging the court to overturn Tinubu’s victory. They are alleging electoral malpractices against INEC and the president.

At the resumed hearing of Atiku’s suit Friday, the two subpoenaed witnesses informed the court that they were directed by INEC management not to hand copies of the election results sheets to any party agent who declined to append their signature on the documents.

Abidemi and Ajagbonna were members of the National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) and served as presiding officers for the February presidential and National Assembly elections.

They recalled that during their training as ad hoc staff for the polls, top officials of the electoral umpire gave instructions regarding the signing of results sheets.

Earlier on Thursday, two ad hoc officers of INEC testified that they could not upload the presidential election results on the electoral commission’s IReV portal.

At Friday’s proceedings, Ajagbonna, who was led in her evidence by Chris Uche, Atiku’s lawyer, told the court that she served as a presiding officer in Kogi State during the polls.

She was Atiku’s 14th witness to testify at the court.

Mounting the witness box, Ajogbenna expressed her disappointment in not being able to use the Bimodal Voters Accreditation System (BVAS) device to transmit the results sheet to INEC’s portal.

On her part, Joseph, Atiku’s 15th witness who presented her appointment letter from INEC in evidence, said she served as a presiding officer in Niger state.

She informed the court that the election was hitch-free at her polling unit.

She recalled that all the party agents appended their signatures on the election results sheet.

“I was trained by INEC. It was part of our training that unless party agents signed, we should not give them duplicate copies of the result,” Joseph said, affirming what PDP agents at the polls earlier told the court.

But while being cross-examined by Tinubu’s counsel, Yusuf Alli, Joseph said she did not compel any party agent to sign the results sheet.

While being cross-examined by APC’s lawyer, Lateef Fagbemi, the witness said INEC appointed her as a presiding officer two days before the 25 February election.

Another witness, Obosa Edosa, from Ovia South-West of Edo State, recounted her experience as a presiding officer at the polls.

“I tried to upload the result using the BVAS machine, but it failed. At the end, I took the result to the collation centre.

“Everything went well, apart from the transmission of the results with the BVAS.

“As a Presiding Officer during the election, I performed my duties very well,” Edosa, the 16th witness, narrated.

The witness said she received a phone call to appear as a witness before the court.

In her evidence, Edosa said, “I did the accreditation of voters using the BVAS and the voters’ register. The process went well, and actual voting started afterwards.”

“Afterwards, we sorted and counted the votes and recorded the results in Form EC8A. We entered the figures manually, and after that, I signed, and the party agents signed.”

Objections

Lawyers to the respondents – Tinubu, INEC and APC – objected to the admissibility of the witnesses’ statements on oath.

They promised to articulate their opposition to the admissibility of the statements at the close of arguments in the case.

But Atiku’s lawyer, Uche, prayed the court to dismiss the objections.

Subsequently, the court said it would rule on the objections at the end of the case. It adjourned further hearing in the petition until Saturday.

 

PT

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman privately threatened to harm the American economy after President Joe Biden warned Saudi Arabia of “consequences” for agreeing an oil production cut with Russia, the Washington Post has reported, citing leaked material.

The Biden administration had said it would re-evaluate relations with the kingdom following a decision by Riyadh to slash crude production against the wishes of the US.

The Crown Prince, who is widely referred to as MBS, warned that he would not deal with the US administration anymore if Biden penalized Saudi Arabia. He also promised “major economic consequences for Washington,” the Post reported on Thursday.

The threat was contained in a classified document that was leaked on a Discord server, but it was not clear whether the remark was part of intercepted communications or a message sent privately to the US.

Biden made his dissatisfaction with Riyadh clear last October after the OPEC+ group of major oil producers including Russia agreed to cut production by two million barrels a day. Washington was working to punish Moscow with sanctions on its oil trade over the conflict in Ukraine.

“There’s going to be some consequences for what they’ve done with Russia,” the US president said in an interview with CNN at the time, without specifying any possible measures.

On the campaign trail before his election, Biden vowed to make Saudi Arabia a “pariah” over the Crown Prince’s alleged role in the 2018 murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi, which Riyadh blamed on rogue agents.

This threat never materialized, with White House insiders indicating that the Biden administration had opted against jeopardizing bilateral relations. Under a decades-old arrangement, the US provides security to Saudi Arabia, and in exchange retains access to its oil, which the kingdom trades for dollars, propping it up as a global currency.

A number of top US officials recently traveled to Saudi Arabia, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken. These relations contrast with the reportedly poor personal chemistry between Biden and MBS, who have not met since last July.

The 37-year-old Saudi Crown Prince, who is responsible for the day-to-day affairs of the kingdom in lieu of his father, King Salman, reportedly mocks Biden in private, making fun of his gaffes and mental lapses. Critics of the US president have accused him of caving in to Saudi pressure.

 

RT

China’s plan for an eavesdropping station in Cuba serves as a marker for Beijing’s global power ambitions, planting its spiraling rivalry with the U.S. on America’s doorstep.

The listening post, which will be 100 miles off Florida, would potentially give the Chinese military capabilities to monitor communications across a wide stretch of the southern U.S. 

More important, the facility roots China in a region of economic and geopolitical importance, broadens the playing field as it jostles Washington for influence and turns the tables on an enduring sore point for Beijing—U.S. spying off Chinese shores.

“The symbolism is much bigger,” said Michael Mazarr, an international security specialist at the Rand Corp. “The days of the United States thinking of the China challenge as one limited to the Indo-Pacific, with the U.S. being the one to encroach on the other’s region in security terms, those days are over.”

Beijing has for decades decried what it sees as U.S. intrusiveness for flying surveillance aircraft and sailing military survey vessels and other warships near Chinese shores or through the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, areas China sees as vital for its security. 

China’s defense minister this past weekend blamed the U.S. for recent close encounters between their militaries and urged Washington to retreat. “What’s the point of going there?” asked Gen. Li Shangfu at a regional security conference in Singapore. “In China we always say, ‘Mind your own business.’”

While a Cuba eavesdropping facility will give Beijing the opportunity to engage in tit-for-tat, it is unlikely meant as a bargaining chip. The U.S. isn’t likely to pull back military deployments from China’s periphery, given Washington’s concerns about Beijing’s more assertive posture and American security commitments to allies from Japan to Australia.

Rather, the Cuba post is a sign that China now sees its struggle with the U.S. as global and that it must operate around the world to fend off Washington and protect Chinese interests. China has set up facilities that could service its navy in Asia and the Pacific and is on a global search for basing sites.

China has for many years looked to Cuba, with its Communist government, as a possible entry point to expand influence in Latin America and edge the U.S. aside in a region Washington long considered an American preserve. The Soviet Union, and later Russia, for decades operated a monitoring facility near Havana, setting a precedent. So, security specialists said, China’s listening post, while angering Washington, isn’t apt to cross U.S. red lines.

China over the last 20 years has become an economic player in Latin America, increasing trade and investment in agriculture, energy, mining and other sectors. It has become the top trading partner for many countries in the region, among them Brazil, Argentina and Chile, acquiring political influence along the way. 

The engagement has given Chinese companies access to copper, oil, soybeans and other resources that Beijing deems critical to grow the Chinese economy and underpin widening influence. 

In recent years, the focus has broadened to include materials critical to energy-saving technologies; a Chinese consortium in January won a bid to develop lithium in Bolivia, home to the world’s largest resources of the metal, which is a component of batteries for electric vehicles. 

“China’s engagement in Latin America is about China getting what China needs for its own prosperity,” said R. Evan Ellis, a professor at the U.S. Army War College who tracks Beijing’s relations in the region. In the longer term, Ellis said, “It’s about China preparing for a world where the U.S. or others may meddle in their attempts to do so.” 

Chinese leader Xi Jinping has said that the U.S. is out to contain China as it rises to become a global peer.

At the weekend gathering where Li spoke, he and other Chinese officials warned that the U.S. is attempting to bring the North Atlantic Treaty Organization into Asia to serve as a check on China. With that in mind, according to Chinese officials and foreign-policy specialists, Xi has placed a priority on preparing the Chinese economy to withstand the kind of sanctions and economic pressure the U.S. and its NATO allies have placed on Russia over its war on Ukraine.

The Biden administration has worked assiduously to bolster defense cooperation with allies in China’s region. Assistant Secretary of Defense Ely Ratner on Thursday touted the gains the U.S. has made in expanding access to military facilities and working with countries such as Japan, Australia, India and the Philippines, describing those relationships as “in overdrive.”

“There’s just a very strong demand signal right now for the United States to be playing its traditional stabilizing role,” Mr. Ratner said at a discussion at the Center for New American Security, a Washington think tank. “It’s no secret that China’s assertiveness and coercion have really underscored the importance of working together.”

Washington and Beijing are also preparing for a visit to Beijing by Secretary of State Antony Blinken that could include a meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, according to officials on both sides. Mr. Blinken is scheduled to arrive in Beijing on June 18, a U.S. official said, his visit having been postponed from February after the appearance of a suspected Chinese spy balloon.

With Beijing planning the eavesdropping facility in Cuba, the U.S. is likely to try to make sure that China’s military presence doesn’t increase. Given economic sanctions and strained ties, the U.S. would likely have to turn to European and Latin American allies to exert pressure on Havana, if Washington isn’t prepared to offer inducements, such as boosting tourism to Cuba.

Unlike the suspected Chinese surveillance balloon that traversed North America before it was shot down early this year, the Biden White House and preceding administrations have appeared to accept some Chinese espionage within international norms. Chinese surveillance vessels, for example, have sailed near large-scale U.S. naval exercises with allies off Hawaii.

China’s sole full-fledged overseas military base, in the Horn of Africa country of Djibouti, started off small then expanded. Beijing is looking to set up other bases, including as far afield as the Atlantic Coast of Africa, as the People’s Liberation Army aims to secure China’s far-flung economic interests.

A port-access agreement with Solomon Islands appears limited, though it could easily be enlarged to become a naval base, according to military affairs specialists.

“I’m sure the Chinese would like to have somewhere that they could operate in the Western Hemisphere reliably,” said Zack Cooper, a China security specialist with the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. “And Cuba is probably more likely to be that place than anywhere else.”

 

Wall Street Journal

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine reports 'heavy combat' after Putin says offensive has begun

Moscow and Kyiv both reported heavy fighting in Ukraine on Friday, with bloggers describing the first sightings of German and U.S. armour, signalling that Ukraine's long-anticipated counterattack was under way.

With virtually no independent reporting from the front lines and Kyiv saying little, it was impossible to assess whether Ukraine was penetrating Russian defences in its bid to drive out occupying forces.

"We can state for sure that this offensive has begun," Russian President Vladimir Putin said in Sochi. "Ukrainian troops did not achieve their goals in any sector."

Ukraine's President Voldymyr Zelenskiy said he had discussed tactics and "achievements" with military leaders but gave little away.

"For our soldiers, for all those who at this time are engaged in particularly heavy combat. We see your heroism, and we are grateful for every moment of your lives," he said in his nightly video address. "Ukraine is as free as you are strong."

Ukrainian military analyst Oleksander Musiyenko, interviewed on Ukrainian NV Radio, said Ukraine was making gains but dismissed Russian reports of a major counter-offensive in south-central Zaporizhzhia region.

"This is simply not true. It is not the main phase of the counter-offensive. It is merely a phase and not the large drive from which we can expect a rapid breakthrough and hundreds of kilometres of liberated territory," Musiyenko said.

The counteroffensive is ultimately expected to involve thousands of Ukrainian troops trained and equipped by the West. The United States announced an extra $2.1 billion in security assistance on Friday, including air defence and ammunition.

Russia, which has had months to prepare its defensive lines, says it has repelled attacks since the start of the week. Kyiv has said its main effort has yet to begin.

Moscow and pro-war Russian bloggers reported intense battles on the Zaporizhzhia front near the city of Orikhiv, around the mid-point of the "land bridge" linking Russia to the Crimea peninsula, seen as one of Ukraine's likeliest targets.

Ben Barry, senior fellow for land warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said reports from the Russian bloggers of German-made Leopard tanks and U.S. Bradley armoured vehicles near Tokmak south of Orikhiv, if confirmed, would provide the first evidence that Ukraine's new brigades of Western-armed troops had joined the battle.

In all, Kyiv has 12 brigades totalling 50,000-60,000 troops ready to unleash in the counteroffensive. Nine of the brigades have been armed and trained by the West.

"They've got a choice of how many they commit initially and how many they keep in reserve in case the battlefield dynamics change," Barry said, adding that Ukraine's initial priority would be trying to keep the Russians off balance and gain tactical surprise through deception and camouflage.

The Russian defence ministry said its troops had repelled two Ukrainian assaults south of Orikhiv and four near Velyka Novosilka further east, where it said Ukraine's attack force included two battalions of troops supported by tanks. Several battalions of up to 1,000 troops comprise a brigade.

The southern front is where Ukrainian forces are widely expected to attempt their main push, towards the coast. Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar said only that battles were continuing for Velyka Novosilka and Russian troops were mounting "active defence" at Orikhiv.

In the east, Ukraine has reported advances around Bakhmut, which Russian forces captured last month after nearly a year of the deadliest ground combat in Europe since World War Two. Ukraine generally bars journalists from reaching its side of front lines during offensive operations.

Reuters could not independently verify the accounts by either side.

FLOOD DISASTER OVERSHADOWS FIGHTING

The initial days of the counteroffensive have been overshadowed this week by a huge humanitarian disaster after the destruction of the Kakhovka dam holding back the waters of the Dnipro River that bisects Ukraine.

Thousands of people have been forced to evacuate homes flooded in the war zone, vast nature preserves have been wiped out and the destruction to irrigation systems is likely to cripple agriculture across much of southern Ukraine for decades. Kyiv said at least four people had died and 13 were missing.

Ukraine's security service released a recording on Friday of what it described as an intercepted phone call in which a Russian soldier confides to another man that a Russian sabotage group had blown the dam up. Moscow says Ukraine sabotaged it.

Western countries say they are still gathering evidence but argue that Ukraine would have no reason to inflict such a devastating disaster on itself, especially right as its forces were shifting onto the attack.

In Hola Prystan on the Russian-occupied side of the river, rescuers evacuatedresidents in rubber dinghies. Villagers carried pets or small children to safety.

"Our house was carried away by a torrent of water," said a woman who gave her name as Oksana, being evacuated in a boat with her teenage daughter and their two dogs.

Some relatives of people in Russian-controlled flooded areas said their loved ones were still stuck on roofs with dwindling food supplies. The United Nations has no access to those areas, its Humanitarian Coordinator in Ukraine Denise Brown said, adding that some 17,000 people were affected in Ukrainian-controlled areas, with numbers changing "by the minute".

The river divides the two sides, which accuse each other of shelling across it, interfering with rescue efforts. The Kremlin said Ukrainian shelling had killed people including a pregnant woman. It provided no evidence.

Ukraine's general staff said on Friday evening there had been 27 armed engagements in the east over the past 24 hours.

It also reported 58 Russian air strikes and 31 incidents of Russian shelling. "Unfortunately, there are civilian deaths and injuries and damage to private homes, a hospital and other infrastructure," it said, without elaborating.

Ukraine launched 16 air strikes it said, giving no indication of whether the front line had moved.

Russian officials said Ukraine had struck the Russian city of Voronezh with a drone, wounding three people, and reported other drone attacks in Belgorod and Kursk. Kyiv withholds comment on reports of attacks inside Russia.

** Russia has received hundreds of Iranian drones to attack Ukraine, says White House

The White House said on Friday that Russia appeared to be deepening its defense cooperation with Iran and had received hundreds of one-way attack drones that it is using to strike Ukraine.

Citing newly declassified information, the White House said the drones, or Uncrewed Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), were built in Iran, shipped across the Caspian Sea and then used by Russian forces against Ukraine.

"Russia has been using Iranian UAVs in recent weeks to strike Kyiv and terrorize the Ukrainian population, and the Russia-Iran military partnership appears to be deepening," White House spokesman John Kirby said in a statement.

"We are also concerned that Russia is working with Iran to produce Iranian UAVs from inside Russia."

Kirby said the U.S. had information that Russia was receiving materials from Iran required to build a drone manufacturing plant that could be fully operational early next year.

"We are releasing satellite imagery of the planned location of this UAV manufacturing plant in Russia’s Alabuga Special Economic Zone," he said.

The U.S. has previously sanctioned Iranian executives at a defense manufacturer over drone supplies to Russia. Iran has acknowledged sending drones to Russia but said they were sent before Russia's February invasion. Moscow has denied its forces used Iranian drones in Ukraine. A White House official said Iran had transferred several hundred drones to Russia since August.

Support between Iran and Russia was flowing both ways, Kirby said, with Iran seeking billions of dollars worth of military equipment from Russia including helicopters and radars.

"Russia has been offering Iran unprecedented defense cooperation, including on missiles, electronics, and air defense," he said.

"This is a full-scale defense partnership that is harmful to Ukraine, to Iran’s neighbors, and to the international community. We are continuing to use all the tools at our disposal to expose and disrupt these activities including by sharing this with the public – and we are prepared to do more."

Kirby said the transfers of drones constituted a violation of United Nations rules and the United States would seek to hold the two countries accountable.

Britain, France, Germany, the U.S. and Ukraine say the supply of Iranian-made drones to Russia violates a 2015 U.N. Security Council resolution enshrining the Iran nuclear deal.

Under the 2015 U.N. resolution, a conventional arms embargo on Iran was in place until October 2020.

Ukraine and Western powers argue that the resolution includes restrictions on missiles and related technologies until October 2023 and can encompass the export and purchase of advanced military systems such as drones.

The Iranian and Russian missions to the United Nations did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the U.S. accusations.

"We will continue to impose sanctions on the actors involved in the transfer of Iranian military equipment to Russia for use in Ukraine," Kirby said.

He said a new U.S. advisory issued on Friday aimed "to help businesses and other governments better understand the risks posed by Iran’s UAV program and the illicit practices Iran uses to procure components for it."

The advisory highlighted key items sought by Iran for its development of drones, including electronics such as processors and controllers.

 

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Ukrainian troops had no success due to courage of Russian servicemen — Putin

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Ukrainian forces achieved no success with their operations at the frontline due to the courage of Russian servicemen, the quality of Russian weapons and proper command organization.

"The enemy had no success in any area. It is all due to the courage and heroism of our soldiers, the proper organization and management of troops and the great efficiency of Russian weapons, especially advanced weapons," Putin told reporters.

He said the fighting has been very intense in the past two days.

Russian releases VIDEO of Ukrainian vehicles destroyed in combat

Russian Ministry of Defense published a video on Friday showing the destruction of armored vehicles supplied to Ukraine by the US and its allies, overlaid by a snippet from the iconic radio broadcast announcing the 1941 invasion by Nazi Germany.

The 45-second video opens with a group of armored cars getting caught by artillery in an open field, somewhere on the Zaporozhye front. This is followed by drone footage of exploding armored cars, personnel carriers and tanks. A still image shows a group of US-supplied Bradley infantry vehicles and a knocked-out Leopard tank. Another Leopard is then seen burning on a dirt road.

While the footage is accompanied by electronic music, the video opens with a blast from the past. “Our cause is just. The enemy will be defeated,” says Yuri Levitan (1914-1983), known as the voice of Soviet radio, quoting from the June 22, 1941 broadcast announcing that Nazi Germany and its allies had invaded the USSR.

The Russian Defense Ministry frequently uses another quote from Levitan’s broadcast, “Victory will be ours!” to sign its announcements.

 

Reuters/RT/Tass

Sudan factions agree day's truce designed to 'break cycle of violence'

Sudan's warring sides have agreed a nationwide, 24-hour ceasefire from Saturday morning, U.S. and Saudi Arabian mediators said, following a week of intensified fighting after a previous truce deal lapsed.

The mediators said the ceasefire was "an effort to break the cycle of violence" between Sudan's army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which began battling each other eight weeks ago, sparking a major humanitarian crisis.

The conflict has displaced more than 1.9 million people, some 400,000 of whom have crossed into neighbouring countries. The urban area around Sudan's capital Khartoum, home to at least five million people, has been turned into a war zone, and unrest has also flared in the conflict-scarred western region of Darfur.

Fighting continued on Friday, with residents reporting artillery fire and clashes in the north of Omdurman, across the confluence of the River Nile from Khartoum, and air strikes in Bahri, a third adjoining city that makes up the wider capital.

"There are heavy strikes near us and bullets from every direction in Al-Thawra neighbourhood in Omdurman," said Sanaa Ahmed, a 24-year-old resident. "We are really afraid and we don't know what to do."

Medical charity MSF said fighting had intensified significantly in Khartoum since Tuesday, resulting in a surge of patients to a hospital where it is working.

Another city where the conflict has triggered clashes is El Obeid in North Kordofan State southwest of Khartoum, which lies on a main route between the capital and Darfur, the RSF's power base.

A doctors' group said in a statement that the city had been suffering from water outages for more than a month, shortages of food, medicine and fuel, and two weeks of power cuts. Twelve kidney dialysis patients had died due to the impact of the war and dozens more were at risk, it said.

'SENSELESS WAR'

The ceasefire is due to start at 6 a.m. (0400 GMT) local time on Saturday.

The two sides agreed to "refrain from prohibited movements, attacks, use of aircraft or drones, aerial bombardment, artillery strikes, reinforcement of positions and resupply of forces, and will refrain from seeking military advantage during the ceasefire," a Saudi-U.S. statement read.

They also agreed to allow delivery of humanitarian assistance, it said.

Both sides have broken a string of ceasefire agreements, including a 12-day truce deal that expired on June 3 and was brokered by Saudi Arabia and the U.S. at talks in Jeddah.

Fighting subsided slightly during the period of that truce deal and limited amounts of humanitarian relief were delivered, though aid agencies say their operations have been badly impeded by bureaucratic controls, fighting, and looting of aid supplies.

The army said last week that it was pulling out of the Jeddah talks, though both sides kept delegations in the Saudi city for consultations.

If the parties fail to observe the new ceasefire, "facilitators will be compelled to consider adjourning the Jeddah talks", the Saudi-U.S. statement said.

The army confirmed in a statement that it had agreed to the 24-hour ceasefire while asserting "its right to respond to any violations". The RSF said in a statement it was committed to respecting the truce.

The conflict in Sudan derailed the launch of a transition towards civilian rule four years after a popular uprising ousted strongman President Omar al-Bashir.

Sudan's army and the RSF fell out over the chain of command and military restructuring plans under the transition.

"We have provided both parties numerous opportunities to end this senseless war," the U.S. State Department's Bureau of African Affairs said on Twitter.

"We call on both sides to adhere to the commitment made today for a 24-hour ceasefire, which would allow Sudanese people to receive critical humanitarian assistance."

 

Reuters

One of the clearest symbols of the failure of the Buhari administration was former Minister of Aviation, Hadi Sirika’s attempt at pulling the wool over the eyes of Nigerians by presenting a hastily repainted Ethiopian Airline plane, chartered for the trick at a high cost, to claim that he had delivered on his mandate of delivering Nigeria Air before the end of his mandate. The tragicomedy was not funny because Nigerians knew about the billions spent on the project with nothing to show for it. Maybe the big question was: Why was Sirika re-appointed to deliver on this mandate, when he had been given the opportunity in the first term of the administration but had failed miserably? For his failure, he was promoted from junior to senior minister in 2019 and his “empire” carved out of the Ministry of Transport, so that he would have sole authority on the matter. The signal was clear: the reward for failure under Buhari was promotion.

It would be recalled that in September 2018, Hadi Sirika’s Nigeria Air project was suspended by the Federal Executive Council (FEC), dashing the hopes of many Nigerians who would have loved to see a national air carrier that we could proudly call our own ferry us around the world, while we make a lot of money in the process, as British Airways, Emirates, Air France etc. are making out of our resources. We know the difficulties of government ownership of airlines and what led to the liquidation of Nigeria Airways in 2004, as such when Sirika announced in December 2015 that his strategic objective as Aviation minister was the establishment of a successful private sector national airline for Nigeria, I put him on my “I like” list. With the suspension of the project and the knowledge that it was all Sirika’s fault, I feel bitter because he could have succeeded if he had consulted widely and planned well. Instead, he conducted one of the most opaque attempts at establishing a project in Nigeria, with no information given about this, almost no consultation with the necessary stakeholders and absolutely no transparency in the process. His second failure is more painful, even if it was expected.

I have followed the airline issue closely and noticed that on numerous occasions, between December 2015 and July 2018, Sirika assured Nigerians that the project was on course but he never gave any details on what was being planned. I noticed that a lot of aviation stakeholders were asking question on what the plans of the minister were but there was no response. It became clear that for him, the airline was his personal project and he did not see the need to discuss it with stakeholders and create a consensus on the best strategy to adopt. Given the total information blackout from the Minister, a lot of speculations arose that he was planning to use the assets of Arik and Aero Airlines taken over by AMCON to start the new line. Others speculated that he was begging Qatar Air and/or Ethiopian Airways to come and set up an airline for us. Speculation became the sole mode of engagement because the minister refused to engage with anybody.

It was only in July 2018 at the Farnborough International Air Show in the United Kingdom that Sirika announced that the name of the proposed new national carrier is ‘Nigeria Air’ and that the proposed national airline would be unveiled before the end of 2018. Then came the bombshell – government would invest $300 million in the new venture and own only 5% of it. With great fanfare, he then launched the logo of the airline for which he had paid some foreign company $600,000 and multiple criticisms arose. The most effective, I recall, was the tweet by Mustafa Chike Obi, former managing director of AMCON, on 21st July 2018 asking why Nigeria was paying $300 million for only 5% of the new carrier, while Air France/KLM had paid $286 million for a 31% share of Virgin Atlantic. The tweet went viral and there was massive reportage in the media that the minister was planning a scam. It was in this context that the next day, the Minister announced that the entire bill for the start-up would be borne by government, which would have 100% and not 5% ownership, but would subsequently sell 95% to the private sector. It was incredible that even at that stage, Sirika was not willing to share basic information on the strategy for the establishment of the airline. After assuring Nigerians for three years that the project would be 100% private, he turned it to a 100% government project and did not even want to tell Nigerians about it.

Part of the problem was that the same Sirika had refused to inaugurate all the governing boards of the parastatals in the aviation sector, despite repeated admonishment from the President, the APC party chairman and the Central Working Committee of the ruling party. He, therefore, single-handedly ran the entire aviation sector. This meant that he was all powerful and it pleased him that he was the master. For his second term from 2019, boards were not even appointed for the parastatals in the aviation sector to please him. Buhari made it a one-man show. In his last two weeks in office, Sirika reorganised the entire ministry, added aerospace to it, appointed new managing directors and directors and even boards for the parastatals. Clearly, having served and failed for the eight years he was there, he decided to stamp his mark of failure on the future of the aviation industry.

In 2018, it was the Economic Management Team (EMT) led by Vice President Yemi Osinbajo that examined the Nigeria Air project and discovered with consternation that the Minister had committed the government to a major and immediate investment to set up the carrier, despite knowing fully well that the project had not been budgeted for. Meanwhile, somehow, an $8.8 million preliminary cost had apparently been provided by government. What the money was spent on has not been explained up till now. It was symptomatic of the Buhari regime that for all these failures, he was promoted and asked to deliver the same mandate he had failed to perform earlier. Currently, Nigerians are correctly calling for a probe of Sirika’s second failure. Buhari may be the only human being who could believe that giving him four extra years would produce a different outcome. Today, we are still in stage one of the five-stage process of establishing an airline after eight years work by Sirika.

The real issue about Sirika was that he was close to the President and therefore could act with impunity, fail in his assignment and remain in power, while running the ministry as a personal fiefdom. How could the President even consider a major structural re-organisation of the ministry in his last week in office, knowing fully well that the Tinubu administration was coming in? The bigger picture, of course, is that the lack of scrutiny extended basically to all the other ministries and in the coming weeks and months, we will start learning details of how other ministers ruled and ruined the country. May accountability return to governance.

 

PT