Lebanon, Israel could agree to ceasefire within days, Lebanese prime minister says

Lebanon's prime minister expressed hope on Wednesday that a ceasefire deal with Israel would be announced within days as Israel's public broadcaster published what it said was a draft agreement providing for an initial 60-day truce.

The document, which broadcaster Kan said was a leaked proposal written by Washington, said Israel would withdraw its forces from Lebanon within the first week of the 60-day ceasefire. It largely aligned with details reported earlier by Reuters based on two sources familiar with the matter.

Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati said he had not believed a deal would be possible until after Tuesday's U.S. presidential election. But he said he became more optimistic after speaking on Wednesday with U.S. envoy for the Middle East Amos Hochstein, who was due to travel to Israel on Thursday.

"Hochstein, during his call with me, suggested to me that we could reach an agreement before the end of the month and before Nov. 5th," Mikati told Lebanon's Al Jadeed television.

"We are doing everything we can and we should remain optimistic that in the coming hours or days, we will have a ceasefire," Mikati said.

The draft published by Kan was dated Saturday. When asked to comment, White House national security spokesperson Sean Savett said: "There are many reports and drafts circulating. They do not reflect the current state of negotiations.”

But Savett did not respond to a query on whether the version published by Kan was at least the basis for further negotiations.

The Israeli network said the draft had been presented to Israel's leaders. Israeli officials did not immediately comment.

Israel and Lebanese armed group Hezbollah have been fighting for the past year in parallel with Israel's war in Gaza after Hezbollah struck Israeli targets in solidarity with its ally Hamas in Gaza.

The conflict in Lebanon has dramatically escalated over the last five weeks, with most of the 2,800 deaths reported by the Lebanese health ministry for the past 12 months occurring in that period.

Hezbollah did not immediately comment on the leaked ceasefire proposal.

Earlier on Wednesday, the group's new leader, Naim Qassem, said the Iran-backed armed group would agree to a ceasefire within certain parameters if Israel wanted to stop the war, but that Israel had so far not agreed to any proposal that could be discussed.

It was Qassem's first speech as secretary-general, a day after Hezbollah announced his election to the post after Israel assassinated the group's longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah.

ISRAEL STRIKES HISTORIC CITY

Israel's operation against heavily armed Hezbollah in Lebanon continued to expand on Wednesday as the Israeli army launched heavy airstrikes on the eastern city of Baalbek, famed for its Roman temples, and nearby villages, security sources told Reuters.

Tens of thousands of Lebanese, including many who sought shelter in Baalbek from other areas, fled after an Israeli evacuation warning.

Bilal Raad, regional head of the Lebanese civil defence, said the scene was chaotic. "The whole city is in a panic trying to figure out where to go, there's a huge traffic jam," he said ahead of the bombardment.

Lebanon's health ministry said 19 people were killed in Israeli strikes on two towns in the Baalbek area on Wednesday.

It said 2,822 people have been killed in Israel's military campaign in Lebanon since October 2023. More than 1.2 million people have been displaced.

Following the airstrikes, the Israeli military said it had targeted Hezbollah fuel reservoirs in the Bekaa Valley region.

Responding to a question about Israel's bombardment of Baalbek, the U.S. State Department reiterated on Wednesday that Washington supports Israel's right to go after legitimate Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. But it said Israel must do so in a way that does not threaten civilians, critical civilian infrastructure and significant cultural heritage sites.

For a third straight day, Hezbollah reported intense fighting with Israeli forces in or around the southern town of Khiyam - the deepest Israel's troops are reported to have penetrated into Lebanon since fighting escalated five weeks ago.

Hezbollah also said it had targeted a military camp southeast of Tel Aviv in Israel with missiles.

PLAN FOR PERMANENT CEASEFIRE

The White House said U.S. security official Brett McGurk would visit Israel on Thursday along with Hochstein. A U.S. official had said they would be there to discuss a range of issues "including Gaza, Lebanon, hostages, Iran and broader regional matters".

The Lebanese prime minister did not comment on the draft proposal published by the Israeli network, which called for a permanent ceasefire to take effect after the initial 60-day period based on implementation of United Nations resolutions 1701 and 1559.

Mikati said Lebanon was ready to fully implement 1701, passed in 2006, which directed the demilitarisation of southern Lebanon and established a U.N. peacekeeping mission there.

Earlier this month, Hochstein told reporters in Beirut that better mechanisms for enforcement were needed as neither Israel nor Lebanon had fully implemented the 18-year-old resolution. The draft leaked on Wednesday called for creating an independent, international arrangement to oversee the ceasefire.

Resolution 1559 was adopted in 2004 and called for disbanding and disarming all militias in Lebanon.

The push for a ceasefire for Lebanon is taking place alongside a similar diplomatic drive to end hostilities in Gaza.

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Russia asks at UN: If West aids Ukraine, why can't North Korea help us?

Russia's envoy to the United Nations on Wednesday questioned why its allies like North Korea could not help Moscow in its war against Ukraine given Western countries claim to the right to help Kyiv.

Vassily Nebenzia faced a blunt argument at a Security Council meeting from the United States, Britain, South Korea, Ukraine and others, who all accused Russia of violating U.N. resolutions and the founding U.N. Charter with the deployment of troops from North Korea (DPRK) to help Moscow.

"Supporting an act of aggression, which completely violates the principles of the U.N. Charter, is illegal," South Korea's U.N. Ambassador Joonkook Hwang said. "Any activities that are entailed with the DPRK's dispatch of troops to Russia are clear violations of multiple U.N. Security Council Resolutions."

Some 10,000 North Korean troops were already in eastern Russia and it appeared likely that they would be used to support combat operations in Russia's Kursk region, near the border with Ukraine, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Wednesday.

Nebenzia said Russia's military interaction with North Korea does not violate international law. Russia has not denied the involvement of North Korean troops in the war, which it has been waging in Ukraine since February 2022.

"Even if everything that's being said about the cooperation between Russia and North Korea by our Western colleagues is true, why is it that the United States and allies are trying to impose on everyone the flawed logic that they have the right to help the Zelenskiy regime ... and Russian allies have no right to do a similar thing," Nebenzia said.

Ukraine's U.N. Ambassador Sergiy Kyslytsya responded: "None of the countries that provide assistance to Ukraine is under Security Council sanctions."

"Receiving assistance from the fully-sanctioned North Korea is a brazen violation of the U.N. Charter," he added. "Sending the DPRK troops to support Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine is a flagrant violation of international law."

North Korea has been under U.N. Security Council sanctions since 2006 and the measures have been steadily strengthened over the years with the aim of halting Pyongyang's development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.

North Korea has not acknowledged the deployment of troops to Russia, but said any such move would be compliance with international law.

"If Russia's sovereignty and security interests are exposed to and threatened by continued dangerous attempts of the United States and the West, and if it is judged that we should respond to them with something, we will make a necessary decision," North Korea's U.N. Ambassador Song Kim told the council.

"Pyongyang and Moscow maintain close contact with each other on mutual security and development of the situation," he said.

However, deputy U.S. Ambassador Robert Woodward warned North Korean leader Kim Jong Un: "Should DPRK's troops enter Ukraine in support of Russia, they will surely return in body bags. So I would advise Chairman Kim to think twice about engaging in such reckless and dangerous behavior."

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Kremlin reveals key condition for Ukraine peace talks

No negotiations with Ukraine can take place unless Kiev gives up its attempts to join NATO and its troops withdraw from Russian territory, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said.

President Vladimir Putin’s press secretary was commenting on speculation by the British outlet Financial Times about 'secret' peace between Russia and Ukraine talks, branding the story fake news.

Citing anonymous sources, the FT has claimed that Moscow and Kiev are “in preliminary discussions” to resume peace talks. According to the outlet, Ukraine is interested in restarting Qatar-mediated negotiations “that came close to an agreement in August before being derailed by Ukraine’s invasion of Kursk.”

“The basic conditions [for talks] were in the president’s peace initiative,” Peskov told reporters on Wednesday, referring to terms Putin outlined earlier this year, including the removal of all Ukrainian troops from Russian territory, Peskov said, referring to the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, as well as the full administrative boundaries of Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions.

The outlet also claimed that the Ukrainian and Russian intelligence services have reached a mutual understanding to stop targeting each other’s energy infrastructure, calling it “the most significant de-escalation” of the conflict to date.

Peskov responded by saying that “nowadays there are a lot of bogus stories that have nothing to do with reality,” adding that “even the most respectable publications do not shy away from planting this misleading information.”

Russia received a Turkish request to discuss energy infrastructure strikes last month, according to former Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, who now serves as the secretary of the Security Council. According to Shoigu, Russia was willing to consider a potential deal, but the Ukrainian side rejected it.

Reuters/RT

When you finally read The Guardian editorial that drew the ire of presidential spokesperson Bayo Onanuga, you cannot help but wonder at his overreaction. For a Presidency that forged its path to power through journalistic propaganda, these people are too jumpy when they encounter media reports they consider unflattering. Even before being sworn into power, Onanuga had started gaming regulatory agencies against the media house that refused to drool before their almighty presence.

An egregious instance was the NBC imposition of a N5m fine on Channelsat their prompting. If the court had not put paid to that nonsense, that is the singular errand the NBC would have been running for this administration by now. The other day, their government also threatened to sue Daily Trust. Now, Onanuga is going after The Guardian? And that is not even counting his social media meltdowns. For an ex-journalist, this man sure has both the determination and zeal for single-handedly policing the media―old and new—on behalf of his principal. One can only wish him good luck on this crusade.

After reading through The Guardian article at least twice because I genuinely wanted to understand why a reputable media house would go to the extent of “openly inciting unrest against President Bola Tinubu’s administration and advocates regime change,” I found nothing of the sort either explicitly stated or implied. Onanuga had to have been responding to some other issue other than that piece. Whatever it is that bothers him, it has made him the proverbial old man who gets uneasy each time dry bones are mentioned in a proverb.

First, they must understand that nobody needs to read The Guardian or any other newspaper to be incited against a government that has systematically despoiled them, tanked the quality of their livelihood, and has no comfort to offer other than the same jading platitudes with which they fed us through “nine years of Buhari.” If the government—through any of its officials—think that the revolution against their poorly-contrived policies will be activated by reading newspaper editorials, they have another think coming.

Between the time I first drafted this article and when I sent it off to the editor, fuel price increased by N27 to N30. That looks like a negligible amount, but the multiplier effect that increase will have on goods and services will further dwindle the purchasing power of an already denuded people. Given the speed with which people’s lives are changed by the vicissitudes of T-Pain’s economy, I can assure Onanuga that newspaper editorials/features, no matter how provocative, can only react to a reality that has already been reshaped. They are not the ones who will incite the revolution; the best that printed journalism can do in the age of new media technology is to analyse the revolution after it must have happened, exploring the angles that online and 24-hour on-call analysts on social media might have missed.

As that Guardian report duly noted, people’s nostalgic longings for a return of the military government are not unfounded. I agree. The factors shaping Nigerians’ angst are based on material conditions of hardship they experience, something which Onanuga and his paymasters—safely ensconced in the villa from where they keep throwing out one harsh policy after the other—can never quite understand.

Twenty-five years is near enough for people to look back and wish for the return of the former oppressors. Yet, 25 years is also distant enough for the memories of the pain that comprised the military years to have receded and replaced by misguided desires. It does not help that the rickety government that Onanuga serves hardly has any coherent results to show for all their pretentions at reforms. They embarked on costly restructuring without proper cost-counting, and that is how we found ourselves stuck with reforms that even the government that initiated them cannot properly defend. All they offer by way of projection into the future are vague promises.

There are many days when Nigeria under Tinubu feels like living under Sani Abacha with social media. We can start by recounting the records of the violation of human rights that have so far been perpetrated by the so-called fighters for the return of democracy. From key officials in the Tinubu administration, to the police who run the errands of egotistic big men in power, and the array of wannabe dictators who have the Police IG on speed dial, this is a government that serially forgets that it is supposed to be democratic. Then add the rapid impoverishment millions of Nigerians have experienced in a short while and the sense of despondency pervading everywhere, and you will see why people cannot but make an association between their lives under the Tinubu administration and the military. The days of Abacha and the days of Tinubu have so much in common that it feels as if history has been static.

Every reasonable person can agree that a return to the military is not the solution. First, because they are anachronic, and second, because anyone who thinks that a military that has been severely depleted by fighting terrorism, banditry, and other categories of restiveness throughout the country is the one that will launch an economic agenda that will redeem Nigeria’s history is self-deluded. The Nigerian military cannot even manage its own budget effectively!

No matter how illusionary the desires for a military return might be, there is a context dictating them. Those who lived under the military and want their return do not see an enlightening difference between this present darkness and the one they experienced under the military. They take Nigeria’s foray into democratic rule as a farce that should be ended. For another generation that never quite witnessed military rule and relies on passed down accounts, the longing for the military is precipitated on the longings for an efficacious power; the power that can compel history into motion, not the effete one that calls itself democracy.

One cannot blame them for such delusions. Structures of political power in Nigeria are so perverted that the only thing they breed is ill consequences. At this point, Nigeria is basically a one-party state; hardly anyone can afford principled opposition. Basic political science teaches us that the three arms of government are supposed to serve as checks and balances for each other, but there is no such integrity anymore. Leaders can do basically whatever they want, and they have not hesitated to take advantage of the lack of a viable system of accountability. It is a democracy, but it is also not one in spirit and truth.

The spirit of democracy has been routinely violated, and people know from experience that hardly any other means exist for them to get rid of this power and principalities that assumes a lordly reign over their lives other than through a violent upheaval. That is why the desire for a military intervention is not about to go away. People like Onanuga might chalk down the desires for insurrection to the antagonisms of tribal politics, but the truth is that their own government and its inefficacies have done more to promote the military in the imagination of Nigerians than the coups in our neighboring countries.

To provide the balanced perspective that he thinks The Guardian missed, Onanuga’s rejoinder added the “positive developments” that have occurred under his principal’s watch. If he is certain of the veracity of his figures, I encourage him to go to the marketplaces and tell those buying food at astronomically high prices about the “notable decline” of the revenue-to-debt service ratio this year, the rise of foreign reserves, a higher GDP growth, and even increased exports. In his own interest, he should also go with his hearse in tow.

Punch

Aditi Shrikant

There are few massive success stories that didn’t start out with some sort of failure.

Amazon founder Jeff Bezos — now the second richest man in the world — had multiple failed attempts at building a platform for third-party sellers to list their products before founding the e-tail giant. Olympic champion gymnast Gabby Douglas credits her missteps on the floor for helping her adopt a resilient attitude. 

“It’s gonna sound weird, but success for me was failing,” she told CNBC Make It. “It was falling seven times. It was making mistakes. That way, I could go back in the gym and be like, ‘Okay, what do we need to work on to make sure all areas are covered and shored up?’”

Failure being a catalyst to success is well-documented. But why failing can lead to better future outcomes is generally misunderstood, says Amy Edmondson, a professor at Harvard Business School and author of “Right Kind of Wrong: The Science of Failing Well.”

“There’s one really important misconception about failing, which is that failure and mistake are the same thing,” she says.

A failure, she says, is when you properly use your knowledge and resources to accomplish a goal, but it just doesn’t pan out. A mistake, on the other hand, is when you stray from a process proven to lead to success.

If you’re baking a cake and accidentally leave out the eggs, that’s a mistake. If you’re creating an entirely new recipe and it doesn’t taste the way you hoped it would, that’s a “productive failure” because it probably taught you something about how to improve the cake on your next attempt.

“There is a lot of happy talk out there about how we should celebrate mistakes,” Edmondson says. “We should celebrate productive failures.”

If you’re pursuing a new hobby or switching into a different role at work, know that failure is likely ahead. And that’s OK, Edmondson says, as long as you learned something from the process. A productive failure meets four criteria, Edmondson says.

4 pillars of productive failure

1. Takes place in new territory: You’re diving into a project or a field where you have no prior experience. “If I decide to write a brand new book that doesn’t yet exist, it’s new territory, by definition, and there will be failures,” Edmondson says.
2. Working toward a goal: You’re clear about what you want to accomplish. This can help you act with intention and track your progress.
3. Backed by research: Just because something is new to you doesn’t mean you have to go into it blind. Do some homework on where someone at your skill level should start.
4. No bigger than necessary: Don’t exhaust your resources on a project you’re just learning how to approach. “Let’s say you have a brand new product,” Edmonson says. “We don’t know whether it will work or whether customers will like it. What you don’t do is announce to the whole world, ‘We got this new product’ and roll it out at scale.” Instead, take baby steps toward your goal so you can course correct as needed.

By reframing failure as an essential part of the learning process, you can feel inspired by it, as opposed to discouraged.

“We should celebrate the new bits of knowledge that disappointingly came because you were wrong about a hypothesis,” Edmondson says.

CNBC

Executive Summary

Nigeria has experienced a significant exodus of both multinational and local companies between 2020 and 2024. This analysis examines the pattern of corporate departures and their underlying causes, highlighting the challenges facing Nigeria's business environment.

Timeline of Major Exits

2020: Initial Wave

Scale: 10+ companies departed

Key Exits:

  - Standard Biscuits Nigeria Ltd

  - NASCO Fiber Product Ltd

  - Union Trading Company Nigeria PLC

  - Deli Foods Nigeria Ltd

Context: The year marked the beginning of a concerning trend, coinciding with global Covid-19 disruptions

2021: Acceleration

Scale: 20+ companies departed

Notable Exits:

  - Tower Aluminium Nigeria PLC

  - Framan Industries Ltd

  - Stone Industries Ltd

  - Mufex Nigeria Company Ltd

  - Surest Foam Ltd

Context: Highest number of exits in the period, suggesting deepening economic challenges

2022: Continued Pressure

Scale: 15+ companies departed

Key Exits:

  - Universal Rubber Company Ltd

  - Mother's Pride Ventures Ltd

  - Errand Products Ltd

  - Gorgeous Metal Makers Ltd

2023: High-Profile Departures

Scale: 10+ major companies

Significant Exits:

  - Unilever Nigeria PLC

  - Procter & Gamble Nigeria

  - GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Nigeria

  - ShopRite Nigeria

  - Sanofi-Aventis Nigeria

  - Equinox Nigeria

  - Bolt Food & Jumia Food Nigeria

Context: Year marked by departure of well-established multinational corporations

2024 (Through October)

Scale: 5+ major companies

Latest Exits:

  - Microsoft Nigeria

  - Total Energies Nigeria

  - PZ Cussons Nigeria PLC

  - Kimberly-Clark Nigeria

  - Diageo PLC

  - Pick n Pay (Latest announcement)

Key Patterns and Trends

1. Sector Distribution

   - Consumer goods companies heavily represented

   - Technology and digital services (Microsoft, Bolt Food, Jumia Food)

   - Manufacturing and industrial firms

   - Retail chains (ShopRite, Pick n Pay)

2. Exit Patterns

   - Progressive increase from 2020 to 2021

   - Sustained high levels of departures

   - Shift from local to multinational corporations

   - Increasing prominence of departing brands

Primary Challenges Cited

1. Economic Factors

   - Currency volatility (Naira instability)

   - Rising operational costs

   - Profitability concerns

   - Market viability issues

2. Operational Issues

   - Regulatory hurdles

   - Business environment challenges

   - Infrastructure limitations

   - Market competition

Implications

1. Economic Impact

   - Job losses

   - Reduced foreign direct investment

   - Decreased market competition

   - Potential supply chain disruptions

2. Market Confidence

   - Negative signal to potential investors

   - Reduced consumer choice

   - Possible impact on local industry development

3. Future Outlook

   - Continued pressure on remaining businesses

   - Potential for more exits without policy intervention

   - Need for economic reforms to retain businesses

Case Study: Pick n Pay Exit

The recent Pick n Pay departure exemplifies the challenges:

- Entered in 2016 via partnership with A.G. Leventis

- Opened first store in 2021

- Limited to two locations despite market potential

- Exit after short operational period despite Nigeria's large consumer market

Recommendations for Policy Consideration

1. Immediate Term

   - Address currency stability

   - Review regulatory framework

   - Improve ease of doing business

2. Long Term

   - Develop infrastructure

   - Create investment incentives

   - Strengthen local supply chains

   - Reform business environment

This pattern of exits represents a significant challenge for Nigeria's economy and requires coordinated policy response to retain existing businesses and attract new investment.

Data from Punch

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited has again increased the price of premium motor spirit (PMS), also known as petrol, across its retail outlets.

On Tuesday, TheCable observed the second increase in October.

NNPC increased the pump price from N855 per litre set in September to N998 per litre on October 3.

However, at the NNPC retail outlets located at Ago Palace Way, Okota, Lagos, the price of PMS has been increased to N1,025 per litre.

In Abuja, at federal housing, Kubwa, an NNPC retail station sold the product at N1,050 per litre.

Other private filling stations such as Mobil, Rain Oil, and AA. Rano have also adjusted their prices to between N1,100 to N1,250 per litre.

The increase comes more than one month after the NNPC commenced petrol lifting at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s gantry after an extended period of price negotiations.

On September 15, the NNPC said petrol was bought from Dangote refinery at N898 per litre.

The Dangote refinery countered NNPC’s claim, describing it as “both misleading and mischievous”.

A day after, the national oil company announced estimated pump pricesbased on prices set by the Dangote refinery for its petroleum products, saying petrol will sell for N950 in Lagos and N999 in Abuja.

On October 10, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) asked NNPC to refund the oil marketers’ money or to sell petrol to its members at the Dangote refinery rate.

IPMAN said its members’ money has been with NNPC for over three months.

According to the association, NNPC collected PMS from the Dangote refinery below N900 per litre, but NNPC wants oil marketers to buy the same product at the rate of N1,010 in Lagos, N1,045 in Calabar, N1,050 in Port Harcourt, and N1,040 in Warri.

On October 11, the federal government said oil marketers can now buy petroleum products directly from the Dangote refinery and other local producers — one week after directing the Dangote refinery to sell petrol to only the NNPC.

The Cable

Aliko Dangote, President of Dangote Group, announced on Tuesday that his refinery is capable of meeting Nigeria’s petrol needs, yet marketers are not taking advantage of the available supply. Dangote revealed that about 500 million liters of petrol remain in the refinery’s tanks, unused by retailers. He spoke to journalists at the State House after attending a meeting with President Bola Tinubu and the Implementation Committee on the Sale of Crude and Refined Petroleum Products.

“We have enough crude and can produce over 30 million liters of petrol daily. At full capacity, we could supply all domestic demand. Right now, there’s 500 million liters in our tanks—enough to cover the country’s consumption for over 12 days, even without imports or additional production,” Dangote explained.

He reaffirmed the refinery’s readiness, stating, “We are more than ready. I’ve assured the President that we can consistently provide at least 30 million liters per day, ramping up as needed. We’re prepared to meet demand.”

Addressing the fuel shortages and long queues at filling stations, Dangote noted that retailers have not been picking up fuel from the refinery. “We’re in the production business, not retail. If I were in retail, I’d take responsibility. But it’s the marketers who need to come and collect the fuel we’ve produced. If they don’t, what can we do?”

Dangote emphasized that while the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) and other marketers are free to continue importing fuel, the available supply from his refinery could meet demand if collected. “It costs us to store this fuel. Having 500 million liters in tanks is costly. If marketers come to collect it, it would reduce the queues at filling stations,” he stated.

Dangote urged retailers to treat the refinery’s supply as they would imports, adding, “They’ve been managing distribution with imported products, so there’s no reason why they can’t come and collect from us and distribute.”

Internally generated revenue (IGR) collected by the states reached N2.43 trillion in 2023, a significant 26.03% increase from N1.93 trillion in 2022, as states focused on expanding local revenue in response to fiscal pressures. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that Lagos, the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), and Rivers State generated the highest revenue, collectively contributing over N1 trillion, or more than 41% of the total IGR.

Lagos accounted for approximately 33.6% of the national IGR with N815.86 billion, while the FCT and Rivers contributed 8.7% and 8%, generating N211.10 billion and N195.41 billion, respectively.

The NBS report categorized IGR into two main sources: taxes and revenue from Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs). Taxes, including pay-as-you-earn (PAYE), direct assessments, road taxes, stamp duties, and capital gains tax, made up about 80% of the total IGR. PAYE was the largest single source, contributing N1.24 trillion, or around 63.83% of the total tax revenue, underscoring the reliance on employee-based taxes in economically active states like Lagos and the FCT.

Other Leading States

After the top three states, Ogun generated N146.87 billion, comprising N71.67 billion from taxes and N75.19 billion from MDAs. Delta followed with N114.08 billion in IGR, with N90.91 billion from taxes and N23.17 billion from MDAs. Edo recorded N64.67 billion, including N46.17 billion from taxes and N18.5 billion from MDAs.

Kaduna’s IGR rose to N62.49 billion, up by over N4 billion from N58.09 billion in 2022, with N49.02 billion from taxes and N13.46 billion from MDAs. Kwara generated N59.64 billion, including N23.12 billion from taxes and N36.51 billion from MDAs, with notable contributions from unique items such as pilgrimage fees.

Oyo State collected N52.74 billion, with N40.52 billion from taxes and N12.12 billion from MDAs, while Akwa Ibom generated N43.18 billion, with N36.07 billion from taxes and N7.11 billion from MDAs.

Despite gains among leading states, some states struggled with revenue generation. Taraba, Yobe, and Kebbi had the lowest IGR, generating N10.87 billion, N11.74 billion, and N11.74 billion, respectively.

Hezbollah names Naim Qassem as new leader, Israel says he won't last long

Lebanese armed group Hezbollah named Naim Qassem as its new leader on Tuesday but Israel said his tenure would be "temporary", an apparent threat after it killed his predecessor Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut over a month ago.

"Temporary appointment. Not for long," Israel's Defence Minister Yoav Gallant posted on X with a photo of Qassem.

Earlier, Iran-backed Hezbollah said in a written statement that its Shura Council had elected Qassem, 71, in accordance with its established mechanism for choosing a secretary general.

Qassem was appointed as Hezbollah's deputy chief in 1991 by the armed group's then-secretary general Abbas al-Musawi, who was killed by an Israeli helicopter attack the following year.

Qassem remained in his role when Nasrallah became leader, and has long been one of Hezbollah's leading spokesmen, conducting interviews with foreign media, including while cross-border hostilities with Israel raged over the last year.

Nasrallah was killed on Sept. 27 in an Israeli air attack on Beirut's southern suburbs, known as Dahiyeh, and senior Hezbollah figure Hashem Safieddine - considered the most likely successor - was killed in Israeli strikes a week later.

Since Nasrallah's killing, Qassem has given three televised addresses, including one on Oct. 8 in which he said the armed group supported efforts to reach a ceasefire for Lebanon.

He is considered by many in Lebanon to lack the charisma and gravitas of Nasrallah.

In its official Arabic account on X, the Israeli government said: "His tenure in this position may be the shortest in the history of this terrorist organization if he follows in the footsteps of his predecessors Hassan Nasrallah and Hashem Safieddine."

"There is no solution in Lebanon except to dismantle this organization as a military force," it wrote.

Reuters

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Russia fires missiles to simulate 'massive' response to a nuclear attack

Russia test-fired missiles over distances of thousands of miles on Tuesday to simulate a "massive" nuclear response to an enemy first strike.

"Given the growing geopolitical tensions and the emergence of new external threats and risks, it is important to have modern and constantly ready-to-use strategic forces," President Vladimir Putin said as he announced the exercise.

It took place at a critical moment in the Russia-Ukraine war, after weeks of Russian signals to the West that Moscow will respond if the United States and its allies allow Kyiv to fire longer-range missiles deep into Russia.

On Monday NATO said that North Korea has sent troops to western Russia, something Moscow has not denied.

In televised comments, Defence Minister Andrei Belousov told Putin that the purpose of the drill was to practise delivering "a massive nuclear strike by strategic offensive forces in response to a nuclear strike by the enemy".

The exercise involved Russia's full nuclear "triad" of ground-, sea- and air-launched missiles.

A Yars intercontinental ballistic missile was launched from Plesetsk cosmodrome in northwest Russia to Kamchatka, a peninsula in the far east. Sineva and Bulava ballistic missiles were fired from submarines, and cruise missiles were launched from strategic bomber planes, the defence ministry said.

The 2-1/2-year-old war is entering what Russian officials say is its most dangerous phase as the West considers how to shore up Ukraine while Russian forces advance in the east of the country.

Putin said using nuclear weapons would be an "extremely exceptional measure".

"I stress that we are not going to get involved in a new arms race, but we will maintain nuclear forces at the level of necessary sufficiency," he said.

He added that Russia was moving to new "stationary and mobile-based missile systems" which have a reduced launch preparation time and could overcome missile defence systems.

The drill follows an Oct. 18 exercise in the Tver region, northwest of Moscow, involving field movements by a unit equipped with Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles, capable of striking U.S. cities.

NUCLEAR SIGNALS

Since the start of the war, Putin has sent a series of pointed signals to the West, including by changing Russia's position on major nuclear treaties and announcing the deployment of tactical nuclear missiles to neighbouring Belarus.

Ukraine has accused him of nuclear blackmail. NATO says it will not be intimidated by Russian threats.

Last month the Kremlin leader approved changes to the official nuclear doctrine, extending the list of scenarios under which Moscow would consider using such weapons.

Under the changes, Russia would consider any assault on it supported by a nuclear power to be a joint attack - a warning to the United States not to help Ukraine strike deep into Russia with conventional weapons.

Putin has said that Russia does not need to resort to the use of nuclear weapons in order to achieve victory in Ukraine.

Russia is the world's largest nuclear power. Together, Russia and the U.S. control 88% of the world's nuclear warheads.

U.S. officials say they have seen no change to Russia's nuclear deployment posture during the war. But the United States in 2022 was so concerned about the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons by Russia that it warned Putin over the consequences of using such weapons, according to Central Intelligence Agency Director Bill Burns.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine to force another 160,000 men into military – official

Kiev will conscript 160,000 more troops over the next three months, according to statements from lawmakers and media outlets. More than a million soldiers have already been drafted, yet high losses have left the Ukrainian Armed Forces plagued by manpower shortages.

Speaking in parliament on Tuesday, Ukrainian lawmaker Alexey Goncharenko said that “1.05 million citizens have been recruited into the defense forces” since the conflict with Russia escalated in February 2022.

“We aim to call up 160,000 more individuals, which will allow us to staff military units with up to 85% personnel,” he said, noting that this information came from Alexander Litvinenko, the secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council.

Shortly afterwards, AFP reported that these troops would be called up over the next three months, citing an unnamed “security source.”

The Ukrainian Armed Forces had around 250,000 active-duty personnel at the beginning of 2022, a number that rapidly swelled once Vladimir Zelensky called up reservists and forbade draft-age men from leaving the country.

This spring, faced with mounting losses, Kiev lowered the draft age from 27 to 25 and significantly tightened mobilization rules, requiring potential recruits to report to conscription offices for “data validation.” These checks often result in people being immediately taken into the army and sent to the front line.

Videos showing recruitment officers attempting to catch eligible men in various public places, often resulting in violent clashes, have since appeared online.

Ukraine does not publish its casualty figures, and Zelensky’s claim earlier this year that only 31,000 men have been killed or wounded fighting against Russia was widely ridiculed. According to the latest figures from the Russian Defense Ministry, Ukraine’s true casualty count stands at over half a million, or around half of its pre- and post-mobilization manpower combined.

According to a flood of articles in Western media outlets, conscripted soldiers are often sent to the front with limited training, and are regarded by their more experienced comrades as unfit for combat. “When the new guys get to the position, a lot of them run away at the first shell explosion,” a deputy commander fighting in Donetsk Region told Financial Times last month. “Some guys freeze [because] they are too afraid to shoot the enemy, and then they are the ones who leave in body bags or severely wounded,” another commander added.

Reuters/RT