Since President Bola Tinubu assumed office on May 29, 2023, Nigeria - according to Nigeria Security Report by Beacon Consulting, a firm that specialises in security risk management - has experienced a dramatic surge in violence. In just over a year, 13,346 people have been killed and 9,207 abducted across 667 local government areas, with deaths resulting from terrorism, banditry, farmer-herder clashes, and other forms of violence. This sharp rise in fatalities and kidnappings underscores the country’s deteriorating security situation and provides a grim context for understanding the entrenched socioeconomic and political crises that fuel this unrest.

The worsening insecurity in Nigeria is a direct consequence of deep-rooted issues, and several core factors contribute to the persistence and escalation of violence, making it unlikely to abate soon.

1. Deep-rooted Socioeconomic Disparities

With 133 million Nigerians living in multidimensional poverty and over 50 million out-of-school children, Nigeria's socioeconomic landscape is ripe for violent conflict. Poverty creates conditions where citizens, especially young people, are easily recruited into criminal and insurgent groups. Governor Babagana Zulum of Borno State highlighted how Boko Haram recruits spies for as little as N5,000, showing how economic desperation pushes people toward violence. The lack of opportunities in regions like the North-East and North-West drives many into criminal activities like banditry and terrorism.

2. Perceived Marginalization and Regional Grievances

The rise in violence in regions such as the South-East and South-South stems from long-standing grievances of marginalization. The South-South resents the extraction of its oil resources to benefit other regions, while the South-East agitates over political exclusion. These perceptions of injustice foster militancy and separatism, with local communities providing support for insurgents. As long as these grievances remain unaddressed, the violence in these regions will likely continue.

3. Farmer-Herder Conflicts

In the North-Central and North-West, clashes over farmlands between farmers and herders, exacerbated by climate change and resource scarcity, have intensified. These conflicts, often framed in ethnic and religious terms, are driven by competition over increasingly scarce arable land. The absence of effective conflict resolution mechanisms leads to escalations, resulting in retaliatory violence, banditry, and mass displacement.

4. Weak Security Infrastructure and Personnel Shortage

As noted by Army Chief Taoreed Lagbaja, Nigeria's security forces are insufficiently staffed and equipped to manage the country's security crisis. With only 2 million security personnel tasked with protecting over 200 million people, and 90% of military equipment imported, the security apparatus is stretched thin. The inadequate funding and reliance on external defense imports cripple the military’s ability to effectively combat insurgencies, even as insurgents adapt and shift their operations to new areas. This security vacuum allows violence to persist and spread.

5. Economic Hardship and Materialism

In the South-West, the combination of economic hardship and extreme materialism fuels criminality, including ritual killings and kidnappings. With high levels of poverty and wealth inequality, many are driven into crime as a means of survival or quick wealth acquisition. This materialism, alongside shrinking economic opportunities, creates a volatile environment in which violent crime thrives.

6. Cross-border Infiltration and Weak Border Control

Nigeria’s porous borders, particularly in the North-East and North-West, allow foreign insurgents and criminal elements to infiltrate the country. The lack of effective border security enables the smuggling of arms and the spread of extremist ideologies. As security experts have pointed out, better control of these borders is essential to prevent external destabilization of local communities.

7. Corruption and Governance Issues

Corruption within Nigeria’s security and governance structures continues to undermine efforts to tackle insecurity. Misappropriation of funds, lack of accountability, and the absence of political will to address critical reforms enable insurgents and criminals to exploit weaknesses in the state. Additionally, unresolved issues related to political exclusion and resource control fuel regional discontent and lawlessness.

8. Child Poverty and Vulnerability

With 90% of children in the North-East and North-West living in poverty, these regions are facing a generational crisis. Children deprived of basic services such as education and healthcare are easily exploited by criminal and insurgent groups. The Almajiri system, in particular, has become a ready recruitment pool for extremists, as vulnerable children are left without proper social or educational structures to integrate them into society. Addressing child poverty is critical to breaking this cycle of violence.

Outlook: Why Insecurity Will Persist

The staggering death tolls and abduction numbers in 2023 and 2024 — 13,346 killed and 9,207 kidnapped — reflect the deepening security crisis in Nigeria. Without addressing the root causes of insecurity, such as poverty, political exclusion, economic deprivation, and governance failures, violence will continue to rise. Military operations alone, while necessary, are insufficient. The government at all levels must invest in social, economic, and political reforms that tackle these underlying issues if it hopes to stem the tide of insecurity. Until such reforms are carefully designed and implemented, the prospects for lasting peace remain grim.

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has pledged 272,500 barrels per day of crude oil through a series of crude-for-loan deals totalling $8.86bn.

By pledging 272,500 barrels daily, it means that about 8.17 million barrels of crude will be used for different loan deals by the national oil firm on a monthly basis.

This is according to an analysis of a report by the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative and the NNPC’s financial statements.

Under these deals, notable projects include Project Panther, Project Bison, Project Eagle Export Funding (Original, Subsequent, and Subsequent 2 Debts), Project Yield, and Project Gazelle.

According to The PUNCH’s findings, NNPC has already fully repaid $2.61bn in loans, representing 29.4 per cent of the total credit facility, while $6.25bn or 70.6 per cent, remains outstanding.

Also, out of the $8.86bn credit facility, only about $6.97bn has been received from seven crude-for-loan deals.

One of the key projects, Project Panther, involves a joint venture between NNPC and Chevron Nigeria Limited, backed by international and local banks.

The project secured a $1.4bn loan facility, with 23,500bpd pledged to service the debt. Repayment is set to commence after a moratorium, with financing terms including an SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) plus 5.5 per cent margin and a liquidity premium.

Another significant deal is Project Bison, tied to NNPC’s attempt to acquire a 20 per cent equity stake in the Dangote refinery. However, the national oil company only acquired a 7.25 per cent stake.

The project secured a $1.04bn loan from Afrexim Bank, with 35,000 bpd pledged as collateral. NNPC fully repaid this loan in June 2024.

Project Eagle Export Funding comprises three separate loans aimed at meeting various financial obligations.

The original loan, secured in 2020 for $935m, was serviced with 30,000 bpd and was fully repaid by September 2023.

A subsequent loan of $635m was also fully repaid by the same period. The third tranche, known as Project Eagle Export Funding Subsequent 2 Debt, was secured in 2023 for $900m, with 21,000 bpd pledged. Repayment is scheduled to begin in June 2024, and the loan will mature in 2028.

Project Yield, designed to support the Port Harcourt Refining Company, involves a $950m loan, with 67,000 bpd pledged for repayment.

The repayment of the loan, secured in 2022, will begin in December. This seven-year facility is crucial to refurbishing the refinery and enhancing domestic refining capacity.

However, despite this crude-for-loan arrangement, fuel production at the Port Harcourt refinery has yet to commence, despite multiple postponements as of August. Promises from the Federal Ministry of Petroleum Resources and NNPC have repeatedly fallen through.

More recently, there was the Project Gazelle deal, which aimed to stabilise Nigeria’s foreign exchange market.

In December 2023, NNPC secured a $3bn forward sale agreement, pledging 90,000bpd from Production Sharing Contract assets to cover future tax and royalty obligations.

As of the end of 2023, $2.25bn had been drawn from this facility, with repayments scheduled to begin by mid-2024.

These crude-for-loan deals come at a time when Nigeria is struggling to boost its oil production.

The NEITI 2022-2023 report revealed a significant decline in crude oil output, reaching the lowest levels in a decade. In 2022, the country produced 490.94 million barrels of crude oil, a steep drop from the peak of 798.54 million barrels in 2014.

Although production slightly improved to 537.57 million barrels in 2023, this still represents only 67.16 per cent of the country’s peak production capacity.

One of the major challenges facing the sector is production deferment. In 2023, Nigeria deferred 110.66 million barrels of crude oil, down from 153.44 million barrels in 2022.

The deferment was primarily due to unscheduled maintenance, repair issues, and oil theft.

Despite government efforts to curb these issues, including initiatives to reduce theft and sabotage, operational inefficiencies persist.

NEITI reported that oil theft and sabotage resulted in the loss of 5.25 million barrels in 2023, exacerbating production struggles.

The House of Representatives Special Joint Committee recently directed NNPC to halt further crude-for-loan agreements.

This directive follows reports that the company is planning to borrow an additional $2bn in oil-backed loans amid efforts to settle a $6bn backlog owed to international oil traders, particularly following the removal of fuel subsidy.

The PUNCH earlier reported that the NNPC was in talks for another oil-backed loan to boost its finances and allow investment in its business, according to the Group Chief Executive Officer, NNPC, Mele Kyari.

Kyari said the company wanted the new loan against 30,000-35,000 barrels per day of crude production, though he declined to say how much money it sought.

Nigeria’s government finances rely on oil the NNPC exports, which provides the bulk of crucial foreign exchange reserves. However, pipeline theft and years of underinvestment have sapped oil production in recent years, and the cost of fuel subsidies has further depleted cash reserves.

On August 17, 2023, the NNPC announced that it had secured a $3.3bn emergency crude oil repayment loan from the African Export-Import Bank.

It explained at the time that the oil company would use the loan to support the Federal Government in stabilising Nigeria’s exchange rate.

The facility, among other things, would help the Federal Government attend to some of its dollar obligations, assist the Central Bank of Nigeria in stabilising the foreign exchange market, and provide funding for NNPC.

Providing details about the deal in the document titled, “Everything you need to know about the NNPC Limited’s $3.3bn loan, also known as Project Gazelle,” NNPC said, “This is a financing agreement secured by NNPC Limited to prepay future royalties and taxes to the Federal Government.”

The company also stated that it adopted a lower price benchmark for the $3.3bn crude-for-cash loan to reduce the risk of default and ensure financial stability.

Giving details on the benchmark oil price, the company said the facility used a conservative crude price of $65/barrel to calculate the allocated crude to be produced and sold.

NNPC also said repayments were strategically planned and tied to future oil sales, with conservative pricing in oil sales contracts mitigating the risks associated with oil price volatility.

Punch

The Federal High Court in Abuja has issued an order barring the Directorate of Road Traffic Services otherwise known as Vehicle Inspection Officers (VIO) from further stopping vehicles on the road, impounding vehicles, or imposing fines on motorists.

The judge, Evelyn Maha, issued the order in a judgement on a fundamental rights enforcement suit FHC/ABJ/CS/1695/2023 filed by a human rights activist and lawyer, Abubakar Marshal of Falana and Falana chambers.

Other respondents sued in the case are the Director of Road Transport, the agency’s Area Commander, Jabi, and the Team Leader, Jabi, and the Minister of the FCT.

In the judgement delivered on 2 October, Maha upheld Marshal’s argument that no law empowers respondents to stop, impound, confiscate, seize, or impose fines on motorists.

The judge declared that the first to the 4th respondents, who are under the control of the 5th respondent (Minister of the FCT) are not empowered by any law or statute to stop, impound, or confiscate the vehicles of motorists and or impose fines on motorists.

She proceeded to issue an order restraining the 1st to 4th respondents either through their agents, servants, and or assigns from impounding, confiscating the vehicle of motorists, and or imposing a fine on any motorist as doing so is wrongful, oppressive, and unlawful by themselves.

Maha further made an order of perpetual injunction restraining the respondents whether by themselves, agents, privies, allies or anybody acting on behalf of the 1st respondent from further violating the rights of Nigerians to freedom of movement, presumption of innocence and right to own property without lawful justification.

Wednesday’s judgement is the latest judicial decision curtailing the excesses of VIOs and their powers to impose illegal levies and fines on motorists.

In March 2021 judgement, the Court of Appeal in Asaba, Delta State, affirmed the verdict of the Delta State High Court nullifying the powers of the Delta State Government, through its VIOs, to demand the payment of levy and issuance of Road Worthiness Certificate in respect of private vehicles.

Delivering the lead judgement of the three-member panel of the Court of Appeal, Joseph Eyo Ekanem, said, “The Vehicle Inspection Officers (VIOs) went beyond the powers vested in them by the Law and the RTR by violently stopping the private vehicle of the Respondent on a public highway using menacing tactics and dangerous implements to demand a certificate of roadworthiness which the said vehicle is not required to have. Such conduct sends a wrong signal to the citizens who may adopt such strong-arm tactics as a means of settling disputes.”

PT

How might Israel strike back against Iran?

Israel has sworn it will retaliate for Iran's missile barrage on Tuesday, which involved more than 180 ballistic missiles and was largely thwarted by Israel's air defense systems.

Below are some ways Israel, backed by the United States, could strike back.

GO AFTER IRAN'S MILITARY INSTALLATIONS

Some analysts believe Israel is most likely to respond by targeting Iranian military installations, especially those that produce ballistic missiles like the ones used in Tuesday's attacks. It could also take out Iranian air defense systems and missile-launching facilities.

Washington has accused Tehran of supplying short-range ballistic missiles to Russia for use against Ukraine. Both countries deny that allegation.

Analysts said that would be seen as the most in-kind response to Iran's attack.

ATTACK IRAN'S NUCLEAR FACILITIES

Strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities could delay Tehran's ability to produce a nuclear weapon. Iran's nuclear program is spread over many locations, only some of which are built underground.

However, a major attack on its nuclear infrastructure would likely provoke serious consequences, potentially including a sprint by Iran to build a nuclear weapon. Washington has said it would not support such an action by Israel.

Richard Hooker, a retired U.S. Army officer who served in the U.S. National Security Council under Republican and Democratic presidents, said it was a "distinct possibility" that Israel could strike Iran's nuclear facilities but not a probability "because when you do something like that you put the Iranian leadership in a position to do something pretty dramatic in response."

The Islamic Republic denies ever having had a nuclear weapons program or planning to have one.

The U.N. nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, and the U.S. intelligence community concluded that Iran pursued a coordinated nuclear weapons program until 2003, and experts say that with the collapse of the 2015 nuclear deal, it could produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a bomb in a matter of weeks.

ATTACK IRAN'S PETROLEUM PRODUCTION INFRASTRUCTURE

Israel could also hit Iran's petroleum industry, which would hurt its economy. Such an attack could provoke Iran in turn to strike oil production facilities in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Arab states. That could send the price of fuel, always a major U.S. campaign issue, soaring before Americans pick a new president and Congress in the Nov. 5 elections.

"I'm not sure that (a hike in world oil prices) would restrain the Israelis," said David Des Roches, a former Department of Defense official involved in Gulf policy now with the U.S. National Defense University’s Near East-South Asia Center. Israel, he added, might view a hike in world oil prices as a benefit for former President Donald Trump's re-election campaign.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently has been more aligned with Trump's Republicans than with Democrats.

ECONOMIC, CYBER OPTIONS

A military response is considered the most likely, but there are options that do not involve missile strikes or commando raids.

U.S. President Joe Biden has said he would impose more sanctions on Iran. Washington's sanctions on Iran already ban nearly all U.S. trade with the country, block its government's assets in the U.S. and prohibit U.S. foreign assistance and arms sales.

Analysts said Israel could also use its cyber warfare abilities to respond to the Iranian strikes.

Israel's recent mass pager attack against Hezbollah in Lebanon turned the spotlight on its secretive Unit 8200, the Israel Defense Forces' specialist cyber warfare and intelligence unit, which Western security sources said was involved in planning the operation.

Reuters

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Powerful Russian bomb destroys Ukrainian ammunition depot – MOD

The Russian military has dropped one of the most powerful bombs in its arsenal on a Ukrainian ammunition depot in the southern part of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), the nation’s defense ministry said on Thursday as it published footage from the scene.

Moscow’s troops have struck an ammunition storage facility located in the village of Razliv, the statement said. The settlement is located some 23 kilometers to the West from Kurakhovo – a major logistics hub used by Kiev’s forces in the area. The village is also situated some 20 kilometers to the northeast from Velikaya Novoselka – a Donbass town turned into a fortress by the Ukrainian troops.

A short clip published by the Russian ministry on Telegram shows a bomb being dropped on a cluster of buildings on the outskirts of the village. A massive explosion rocks the area sending thick plumes of grey smoke into the sky.

According to the ministry, a FAB-3000 bomb was dropped on the target. The FAB-series bombs were designed to destroy an enemy’s defenses or fortifications as well as military industrial facilities. Their strong hull is capable of penetrating ceiling joists in multistory buildings while keeping the bomb relatively intact.

A FAB-3000 is one of the most powerful bomb types in the series, with just a few other models having higher destructive capacity. Weighing more than 3 tons, the bomb carries explosives equivalent to almost 1.4 tons of TNT.

This year, the Russian military started outfitting their larger bombs with the Universal Correction and Guidance Modules (UMPK). The winged upgrade kits were designed to turn older free-fall bombs into high-precision weaponry.

The UMPKs were initially used with smaller high-explosive bombs of the FAB series such as FAB-250 or FAB-500. The first FAB-3000 bombs fitted with UMPKs were employed in mid-June.

The video came as the defense ministry also confirmed the liberation of the town of Ugledar - a strategically important position located on a high round and featuring high-rise buildings overlooking the surrounding plain. Located some 40 kilometers to the southeast from Razliv, Ugledar has been an arena of fierce battles on several occasions in the past as the Russian forces sought to take control over the town.

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Russian defence ministry confirms capture of Vuhledar in eastern Ukraine

Russia's Defence Ministry on Thursday confirmed reports that its forces had taken control of the eastern Ukrainian town of Vuhledar, crediting what it called decisive action taken by units in its "East" military grouping.

The town, which Russia calls Ugledar, had resisted Russian assaults for more than two years.

** Russia intercepts drone near Kursk, no damage to nuclear plant, governor says

Russian forces intercepted a Ukrainian drone on Thursday near the Russian town of Kurchatov but there was no damage to the nearby Kursk nuclear power plant, the regional governor said.

Governor Alexei Smirnov said debris from the drone caused explosions in a building unrelated to the plant.

Several Russian Telegram channels earlier reported the alleged Ukrainian attack, which they said had been thwarted by air defences but had resulted in a fire several miles from the nuclear plant.

The plant's operator, Rosenergoatom, said the facility was operating as usual and radiation levels remained within normal limits.

In a post on X, Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Heorhiy Tykhyi denied that Ukraine had fired weapons at or near the plant.

Reuters could not independently confirm the reports.

Ukrainian forces entered Kursk region in a surprise cross-border incursion on Aug. 6 and remain there even as the Russian military tries to eject them.

Rafael Grossi, head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog, visited the nuclear plant on Aug. 27 and said it was especially vulnerable to a serious accident because it lacks a protective dome that could shield it from missiles, drones or artillery.

Several good things happen in the bedroom, often the place of rest and renewal. Sometime in 2004, Sam Nda-Isaiah and his wife Zainab conceived the idea of a newspaper there. 

She told the story before of how her husband got up in the wee hours, scribbled a few things in a jotter, and asked what she thought of the names and the sketch. That was not the day the newspaper started, of course. But it was only a matter of time.

That idea, which later became LEADERSHIP, has evolved from the feisty flimsy of decades ago into a news content company with a stable comprising some of Nigeria’s most fearless and authoritative news brands. Let’s walk back through the years that fostered this growth.

The pharma’s lab

Sam, as the founder was fondly called, was a journalist who happened to be a pharmacist. His father, Clement, was one of Northern Nigeria’s most durable newspaper deskmen with a strong interest in sports. He worked in New Nigerian Kaduna, but his influence and reputation went far and wide. 

His son, Sam, branched off into journalism after studying Pharmacy at the Obafemi Awolowo University Ife and working briefly at Pfizer. The transition might have been a vocational accident. I think, more appropriately, it was a triumph of the genes. He first joined Daily Trust, then in its infancy, as one of the newspaper’s columnists. 

After years of column-writing, he compiled his selected works into a book, Nigeria: Full Disclosure, before launching a newspaper. It took a lot of work, though. Before the newspaper, he started a newsletter, 

LEADERSHIP Confidential, a highly-prized window on life, politics and powerplay among Abuja’s high and mighty, patronised by embassies and the political glitterati. 

Confidential mafia

Mahmood Yakubu, Abba Kyari, Adamu Adamu, Mamman Daura, Abba Mahmood, and Adamu Suleiman, people who knew the dark secrets of government, were among the most valuable anonymous contributors. But the newsletter wasn’t enough for Sam, the man of big ideas. He wanted to do more. 

He gathered the money from the launch of Full Disclosure, which was about N20m then. With a small team comprising Nnamdi Samuel, Abraham Nda-Isaiah, Uche Ezechukwu, Demola Abimboye, Winifred Ogbebo, Douglas Ejembi, Audee Giwa, Kingsley Chukwu, among his earliest staff, he released a preview towards the end of September 2004, before the maiden edition on October 4, dedicated to God and country. 

God and newspapers

I’m not sure God reads newspapers. But countries pay attention. A few notable newspapers have significantly affected the course of their countries for ill or for good. When Rudolph Hearst started the New York Journal, his motive was clear: how to run Joseph Pulitzer’s New York World out of town. 

That rivalry inflamed one of the most hysterical eras in American journalism, including Hearst’s use of his press to instigate deadly conflicts with Spain.

However, the US press also had its unlikely heroes, one of the most remarkable being Katherine Graham, daughter of the founder of The Washington Post. 

Whatever Jeff Bezos may have unmade of the brand today, ThePost, on Katherine Graham’s watch, was the newspaper that defied the US government to publish the Pentagon Papers and the Watergate story, two of the most consequential scoops of the 21st century. 

Loaded gun

I’m not saying LEADERSHIP is The Post. Not yet. I’m saying that newspapers can affect their countries’ trajectory one way or the other. Lord Beaverbrook eloquently said, “[Press power] is a flaming sword, which will cut through any political armour…that is not to say that any great newspaper or group of newspapers can enforce policies or make or unmake governments at will, just because it is a great newspaper.

“Many such newspapers are harmless because they do not know how or when to strike. They are in themselves unloaded guns. But teach the man behind them how to load and what to shoot at; they become deadly.”

The youngest and longest-serving Former British Labour Party Prime Minister, Tony Blair, knew this. For most of his years in Number 10, whenever the media mogul Rupert Murdoch called once, Blair answered twice.

But again, LEADERSHIP is not SUN or Times of London. Nor is Olusegun Obasanjo, Blair. Yet, Nigeria’s President Obasanjo would not forget LEADERSHIP in a hurry. In Too Good to Die: Third Term and the Myth of the Indispensable Man, the epic catalogue by Chidi Odinkalu and Aisha Osori, we read about the daring ambition of the former president to wrest an illegal third term. 

Beacon, always

Even in its infancy, LEADERSHIP was perhaps the most consequential newspaper that frustrated Obasanjo’s ambition. It has remained just as much a scourge of crooked leaders as a champion of Nigeria’s unity. 

For example, Imam Abubakar Abdullahi came to the limelight after the company’s awards and conference subsidiary recognised the cleric for sheltering Christians in his mosque at the height of the deadly sectarian violence of 2018 in Jos. 

Again, this year, Auwalu Salisu, a Kano-based tricycle rider awarded by the newspaper for returning N15m to the owner, received an avalanche of praise, including a cash award of N250m by the Niger State government, which Governor Mohammed Umar Bago has redeemed and kept in the care of the Sam Nda-Isaiah Foundation.

The newspaper remains fervent in its fight for press freedom, regardless of which Witchfinder General wants to undermine the press. Its dogged pursuit of the “unidentified” persons who murdered Nigerian journalist James Bagauda Kaltho in 1996, for example, led it through a labyrinth of minefields from Durbar Hotel, Kaduna, where he was bombed, through the trail of one Russell Hanks believed to have been a US envoy in Nigeria, and back to the US Embassy. The murder is still unresolved.

Neighbour-to-neighbour

There is another moment that bears retelling. In the heady days after the 2015 general elections, when the former Minister of Niger Delta Affairs, Godsday Orubebe, besieged INEC Chairman Attahiru Jega and threatened hell as the final results were being announced, the rogue economic wing of the PDP under the auspices of Neighbour-to-Neighbour, offered publishers vast sums of money to publish an advert that President Goodluck Jonathan had won the election. 

An unsuspecting LEADERSHIP staff collected the money and gleefully called the publisher to inform him that the newspaper’s bread had been buttered. Sam, whose fury, even at the best of times, was like a raging storm, was on another level of fury. He ordered that the bag of cash be returned immediately. Not long after the money was returned, Muhammadu Buhari was announced the winner, and Jonathan conceded defeat within the hour. 

Ghana-Must-Go!

In these 20 eventful years, LEADERSHIP readers have had an unfailing companion – Ghana-Must-Go, the irreverent cartoon strip on the back page. In my time here, I can only remember once when GMG was stricken and bereft of wit: December 11, 2020, when Sam passed. The cartoon character was, understandably, devastated: Its life, the life of the newspaper and many who depended on it, was suddenly hanging by a thread!

The last twenty years have been quite an odyssey, with the fast-changing media ecosystem, the increasing adoption of generative Artificial Intelligence, Big Tech's abuse and misuse of content, rising costs, and changing audience demographics forcing the industry to recalibrate. 

Overall, though, the journey that started in the bedroom over twenty years ago has made significant strides for God and country!

And long may it live!

** Ishiekwene is Editor-In-Chief of LEADERSHIP and author of the new book Writing for Media and Monetising It.

Andrew G. Onokerhoraye's autobiography, "The Riches of His Grace," is a captivating and eventful life story that offers a thoughtful reflection on the author's experiences, challenges, and triumphs. The book is a testament to the riches of God's grace, which has been abundant and lavish in the author's life. The author's motivation to write his autobiography came from his friends, who recognized the value of his life story and its potential to inspire others. Despite initial hesitation, Onokerhoraye decided to write his autobiography to capture the intimate details, nuances, and landmarks in his life.

The autobiography is written through the frame of the Holy Scriptures, "the riches of His grace" referring to the abundant and infinite nature of God's grace, demonstrated through His kindness and generosity towards us in Christ Jesus. Some of the key aspects of the riches of God's grace include the following: the riches of God's grace are limitless and overflowing, surpassing our understanding and needs; through Christ's blood, we receive redemption and forgiveness of sins, according to the riches of God's grace; the riches of God's grace reveal His generous and loving nature, demonstrating His glory and goodness; God's grace is lavished upon us, not because we deserve it, but because of His abundant love and kindness; the  riches of God's grace include spiritual blessings, such as adoption as God's children, the indwelling of the Holy Spirit, and access to God through prayer; and finally the riches of God's grace ultimately lead to eternal life with God, a gift that surpasses our understanding and is available through faith in Christ Jesus. Reading through this autobiography, Onokerhoraye’s life experiences either directly or implicitly through inferences match these six categories of the riches of God's grace: (1) Redemption and forgiveness. (2) God's character. (3) Lavished upon us. (4) Spiritual blessings. (5) Eternal life. (6) God's kindness and generosity.

Structure and Content

The autobiography is divided into five sections, each focusing on a different aspect of the author's life. The first section traces his life story from his humble beginnings in a remote village to his rise as a professor and university administrator. The second section focuses on his teaching, research, and public service, while the third section highlights his contributions to university governance. The fourth section explores the application of his research training and capability to building a Think Tank, and the final section expresses gratitude to his family, friends, associates, and partners.

Themes and Reflections

Throughout the autobiography, Onokerhoraye reflects on the riches of God's grace, which has been evident in his life. He writes about the challenges he faced, the opportunities he received, and the lessons he learned. He also acknowledges the role of providence and good fortune in his life, demonstrating his humility and gratitude. The autobiography offers valuable lessons for the young and old, highlighting the importance of focus, discipline, and determination in pursuing education and succeeding in life. Onokerhoraye's life story serves as a model for those seeking inspiration and guidance.

The author's writing style is engaging, and his use of language is rich and descriptive. He shares his experiences with vulnerability and honesty, making the book a relatable and authentic read. One of the strengths of the autobiography is its ability to convey the author's passion for education, research, and public service. His commitment to making a positive impact in the lives of others is evident throughout the book. The autobiography also highlights the importance of relationships and community in the author's life. He expresses gratitude to his family, friends, and associates who have supported him throughout his journey. Overall “The Riches of His Grace" is a captivating and inspiring autobiography that offers a glimpse into the life of Onokerhoraye. The book is a testament to the power of God's grace and the importance of reflecting on one's experiences, challenges, and triumphs. It is a valuable resource for anyone seeking inspiration, guidance, and encouragement.

Intersectional Confluence: A Tale of Two Professors

In reading the autobiography of Onokerhoraye, I found an intriguing intersectionality and confluence of differences and similarities in our educational and professional careers. Despite distinct paths, our journeys reveal remarkable parallels, underscoring the power of shared experiences and intellectual roots. We both attended a Grade II Teacher Training College and entered the University of Ibadan through the GCE channel. We both chose geography as our undergraduate degree program, influenced by Akin Mabogunje's scholarship and achievements. Both recognized gaps in our understanding of urban systems as articulated in Mabogunje’s 1968 boon on Urbanization in Nigeria and addressed them in graduate school. We both embraced the development ethos in our research and writing. We both returned to the University of Ibadan after doctoral studies.

Our careers diverged in several ways. Onokerhoraye focused on geography and planning, while Megbolugbe delved deeper into economics and finance. Our career trajectories took different turns, with Onokerhoraye working at NISER and the University of Benin, and Megbolugbe joining Florida State University and later Fannie Mae, PricewaterhouseCoopers and Johns Hopkins University. Despite divergent paths, our careers converged in consulting, executive management, think tanks, and philanthropy. We were also born within the same decade, also retired within the same decade, our careers were anchored by research, teaching and lifelong learning.

This later narrative in my review highlights the significance of intersectionality and confluence in understanding the complexities of individual experiences. The parallels and divergences in the careers of Onokerhoraye and Megbolugbe serve as a testament to the power of shared intellectual roots in being grounded in the study of social science by our founding fathers including A.L. Mabogunje, Ojetunji Aboyade, Francis Okediji, R.K. Udo and E, Essien-Udom and the value of diverse perspectives.

Rating: 5/5 stars

Recommendation: This book is highly recommended for anyone interested in memoirs, autobiographies, and stories of inspiration and triumph.

** Review by: Isaac Megbolugbe, who is a retired professor from Johns Hopkins University and a fellow student and mentee with Onokerhoraye of the Late Emeritus Professor Akin Mabogunje at the University of Ibadan. Isaac resides in the United States of America.

The Nigerian economy has entered a period of severe hardship, marked by rapidly increasing poverty and hunger. This is driven by a complex combination of domestic economic challenges, policy choices, and external factors. The country's transition into deeper multidimensional poverty—where 133 million Nigerians were classified as such by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in 2022—has been further compounded by the Bola Tinubu administration's policies, which have exacerbated inflationary pressures and eroded purchasing power. A combination of economic mismanagement, external shocks, and poor governance has resulted in significant devaluation of the Naira, skyrocketing fuel prices, and surging inflation, all of which continue to push more Nigerians into the poverty trap.

Naira Devaluation and Its Effects on Poverty

One of the most severe blows to the Nigerian economy has been the rapid depreciation of the Naira. Since President Bola Tinubu took office in May 2023, the Naira has fallen from N465/$ to N1,700/$ in the parallel market—a more than 70% loss in value . This drastic depreciation has not only diminished the purchasing power of Nigerians but also led to inflationary pressures that have particularly hurt the poor.

The reasons for the Naira's decline are multi-faceted. Nigeria remains heavily dependent on oil exports for foreign exchange, yet oil production has been severely constrained due to widespread theft and declining output. Furthermore, Nigeria’s future oil earnings are increasingly tied up in debt obligations, reducing the inflow of foreign exchange needed to stabilize the currency. The government’s decision to float the Naira in hopes of attracting foreign investment backfired, as it created more volatility without bringing in the expected influx of foreign capital.

This loss of value has translated directly into higher import costs, especially for essential goods like food and fuel, both of which are highly dependent on imports. The manufacturing sector has been hit hard, as many industries rely on imported raw materials. This has led to higher production costs and a subsequent rise in the prices of manufactured goods. As manufacturers struggle to stay afloat due to the scarcity of foreign exchange and rising energy costs, many have been forced to reduce operations, leading to layoffs and further weakening consumer demand.

Rising Fuel Prices and the Energy Crisis

The removal of fuel subsidies, which saw petrol prices soar from N187/litre to N1,000/litre, has been another key factor driving poverty and social unrest. With petrol being a critical input not just for transportation but also for electricity generation—due to Nigeria’s unreliable power grid—the increase in fuel prices has had a cascading effect across the economy. Transportation costs have surged, driving up the price of food and other essential goods, and businesses, particularly small enterprises, have struggled to cope with the added operational costs.

The government’s decision to end fuel subsidies aligned with IMF and World Bank policies aimed at market liberalization, but the timing and execution have worsened living conditions for the average Nigerian. The policy change was intended to free up government revenues for more productive uses, but in the absence of a social safety net, the poor have borne the brunt of the cost increases. Furthermore, the expectation that the Dangote Refinery would lower fuel costs has been met with delays and uncertainties. Even when operational, the refinery’s ability to stabilize fuel prices is constrained by broader issues like exchange rate volatility and global oil market dynamics.

Inflation and Food Insecurity

Nigeria's inflation has risen sharply from 22.4% when Tinubu took office to 32.15% by August 2024. The country is caught in a vicious cycle of rising costs, reduced economic activity, and declining consumer demand. High inflation has been driven by several key factors:

1. Monetary policy and high interest rates: The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has raised the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to 27.25% in a bid to control inflation, but this has only made borrowing more expensive for businesses, particularly manufacturers. The resulting slowdown in production has led to supply shortages, which in turn have driven up prices.

2. Agricultural disruptions and food inflation: Food inflation has been particularly damaging, especially for the poor, who spend a significant portion of their income on food. Nigeria’s agricultural sector has been hit by insecurity, particularly in the northern regions, where insurgency and banditry have disrupted farming activities. This has led to reduced output and higher food prices, with no immediate solution in sight. Additionally, Nigeria loses up to 50% of its agricultural produce post-harvest due to poor infrastructure and storage facilities, exacerbating food shortages.

3. Currency depreciation: As the Naira has continued to fall, the cost of imported food and agricultural inputs has risen, putting further pressure on food prices. Smuggling of essential goods like food across Nigeria’s porous borders into neighboring countries has also contributed to domestic shortages and price hikes.

The Outlook: No Relief in Sight

Given the current trajectory of the Nigerian economy, there is little hope that poverty and hunger will abate any time soon. Several structural challenges will continue to prevent any meaningful economic recovery in the short or medium term:

- Dependence on imports and a weak manufacturing base: As long as Nigeria remains dependent on imported goods, including fuel and food, the country will continue to be vulnerable to global price fluctuations and exchange rate volatility. The lack of a robust manufacturing sector limits the ability of the economy to generate foreign exchange, exacerbating the currency crisis and perpetuating poverty.

- Foreign exchange shortages: The scarcity of foreign exchange will continue to drive up the cost of imports and fuel inflation. The government’s limited ability to intervene in the currency market means that the Naira is unlikely to stabilize without substantial foreign investment or an increase in oil production, both of which seem unlikely in the near term.

- Persistent inflation: The underlying causes of inflation—high energy costs, supply-side disruptions, and currency depreciation—show no signs of abating. Without significant policy interventions, such as improving agricultural productivity, stabilizing the currency, and addressing insecurity, inflation will remain a persistent challenge, further eroding living standards.

In conclusion, Nigeria's current economic policies, combined with external shocks, are deepening the country’s poverty and hunger crises. The devaluation of the Naira, high fuel prices, inflation, and a struggling manufacturing sector have all contributed to worsening living conditions for millions of Nigerians. Unless major reforms are designed and implemented to address these structural challenges, the prospects for poverty alleviation in Nigeria remain grim.

Nigeria’s import bills on used vehicles, popularly known as ‘tokunbo’, fell by 83 per cent year-on-year to N138.62 billion in the first half of the year, from N819.15 billion in H1’23.

Quarter-on-quarter, a breakdown of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for the review period showed that in Q1 ’24 no used vehicle was imported compared to N69.23 billion worth of used vehicles that were imported in Q1’23.

In Q2’24, the value of imported used vehicles was N138.62 billion, representing an 81.5 per cent decline YoY from N749.92 billion in Q2’23.
NBS noted that the used vehicles were imported mainly from the United States of America, stating: “On the other hand, total imports from America in Q2’24 were N971.84 billion.

Recall that last year, the federal government introduced a new set of taxes on imported vehicles, among other things. The new tax regime stipulates that imported vehicles between 2000 capacity (two litres) and 3999 capacity (3.9 litres) engine would pay an additional charge known as Import Adjustment Tax (IAT) levy of two per cent of the value of the vehicle, while vehicles with 4000 capacity (four litres) and above engines would attract IAT of four per cent of their value.

The new levy is in addition to the 35 per cent import duty and 35 per cent levy being paid by importers of vehicles. However, vehicles below 2000cc, mass transit buses, electric vehicles, and locally manufactured vehicles are exempted from the IAT levy.

The government also revised the import prohibition list with the inclusion of used motor vehicles above 12 years from the year of manufacture.

The Guardian

The Federal Government says it has removed Value Added Tax (VAT) on diesel, cooking gas, among others.

Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, disclosed this while unveiling two major fiscal incentives, on Wednesday.

A statement by the Director, Information and Public Relations at the Ministry of Finance, Mohammed Manga, said the incentives are aimed at revitalising Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

The incentives include value-added tax (VAT) modification order 2024 and notice of tax incentives for deep offshore oil and gas production, in accordance with the Oil and Gas Companies (tax incentives, exemption, remission, etc.) Order 2024.

The statement said: “The VAT Modification Order 2024 introduces exemptions on a range of key energy products and infrastructure, including Diesel, Feed Gas, Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), Compressed Natural Gas (CNG), Electric Vehicles, Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure, and Clean Cooking Equipment. These measures are designed to lower the cost of living, bolster energy security, and accelerate Nigeria’s transition to cleaner energy sources.

“In addition, the Notice of Tax Incentives for Deep Offshore Oil & Gas Production provides new tax reliefs for deep offshore projects. This initiative is aimed at positioning Nigeria’s deep offshore basin as a premier destination for global oil and gas investments.

“These reforms are part of a broader series of investment-driven policy initiatives championed by His Excellency, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, in line with Policy Directives 40-42. They reflect the administration’s strong commitment to fostering sustainable growth in the energy sector and enhancing Nigeria’s global competitiveness in oil and gas production.”

Manga added: “With these bold initiatives, Nigeria is firmly on track to reclaim its position as a leader in the global oil and gas market.

“These fiscal incentives demonstrate the administration’s unwavering commitment to fostering sustainable growth, enhancing energy security, and driving economic prosperity for all Nigerians.”

Daily Trust