Israel orders new evacuations in Gaza's last refuge of Rafah as it expands military offensive

Israel ordered new evacuations in Gaza’s southern city of Rafah on Saturday, forcing tens of thousands more people to leave as it prepared to expand its military operation deeper into what is considered Gaza’s last refuge, in defiance of growing pressure from close ally the United States and others.

As pro-Palestinian protests continued against the war, Israel’s military also said it was moving into an area of devastated northern Gaza where it asserted that the Hamas militant group has regrouped after seven months of fighting.

Israel has now evacuated the eastern third of Rafah, and top military spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said dozens of militants had been killed there as “targeted operations continued.” The United Nations has warned that the planned full-scale Rafah invasion would further cripple humanitarian operationsand cause a surge in civilian deaths.

Rafah borders Egypt near the main aid entry points, which already are affected. Israeli troops have captured the Gaza side of the Rafah crossing, forcing it to shut down. Egypt has refused to coordinate with Israel on the delivery of aid though the crossing because of “the unacceptable Israeli escalation,” the state-owned Al Qahera News television channel reported, citing an unnamed official.

U.S. President Joe Biden has said he won’t provide offensive weapons to Israel for Rafah. On Friday, his administration said there was “reasonable” evidence that Israel had breached international lawprotecting civilians — Washington’s strongest statement yet on the matter.

In response, Ophir Falk, foreign policy adviser to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, told The Associated Press that Israel acts in compliance with the laws of armed conflict and the army takes extensive measures to avert civilian casualties, including alerting people to military operations via phone calls and text messages.

More than 1.4 million Palestinians — half of Gaza’s population — have been sheltering in Rafah, most after fleeing Israel’s offensives elsewhere. The latest evacuations are forcing some to return north, where areas are devastated from previous attacks. Aid agencies estimate that 110,000 had left before Saturday’s order that adds 40,000.

“Do we wait until we all die on top of each other? So we’ve decided to leave,” Rafah resident Hanan al-Satari said as people rushed to load mattresses, water tanks and other belongings onto vehicles.

“The Israeli army does not have a safe area in Gaza. They target everything,” said Abu Yusuf al-Deiri, displaced earlier from Gaza City.

Many people have been displaced multiple times. There are few places left to go. Some Palestinians are being sent to what Israel has called humanitarian safe zones along the Muwasi coastal strip, which is already packed with about 450,000 people in squalid conditions.

Georgios Petropoulos, with the U.N. humanitarian agency in Rafah, said that aid workers had no supplies to help people set up in new locations.

“We simply have no tents, we have no blankets, no bedding,” he said.

The World Food Program had said it would run out of food to distribute in southern Gaza by Saturday, Petropoulos said — a further challenge as parts of Gaza face what the WFP chief has called “full-blown famine.” Aid groups have said that fuel will be depleted soon, forcing hospitals to shut down critical operations.

Heavy fighting was also underway in northern Gaza, where Hagari said that the air force was carrying out airstrikes. Palestinians in Jabaliya, Beit Lahiya and surrounding areas were told to leave for shelters in the west of Gaza City, warned that Israel would strike with “great force.”

Northern Gaza was the first target of Israel’s ground offensive launched after Hamas and other militants attacked southern Israel on Oct. 7, killing around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and taking another 250 hostage. They still hold about 100 captives and the remains of more than 30. Hamas on Saturday said that hostage Nadav Popplewell had died after being wounded in an Israeli airstrike a month ago, but provided no evidence.

Israel’s bombardment and ground offensives have killed more than 34,800 Palestinians, mostly women and children, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, which doesn’t distinguish between civilians and combatants in its figures. Israel blames Hamas for civilian casualties, accusing it of embedding in densely populated residential areas.

Civil authorities in Gaza gave more details of mass graves that the Health Ministry announced earlier at Shifa hospital, the largest in northern Gaza and the target of an earlier Israeli offensive. Authorities said most of the 80 bodies were patients who died from lack of care. The Israeli army said “any attempt to blame Israel for burying civilians in mass graves is categorically false.”

At least 19 people, including eight women and eight children, were killed overnight in central Gaza in strikes that hit Zawaida, Maghazi and Deir al-Balah, according to Al Aqsa Martyrs Hospital and an AP journalist who counted the bodies.

“Children, what is the fault of the children who died?” one relative said. A woman stroked the face of one of the children lying on the ground.

Another round of cease-fire talks in Cairo ended earlier this week without a breakthrough, after Israel rejected a deal that Hamas said it accepted.

Tens of thousands of people attended the latest anti-government protest in Israel on Saturday evening amid growing pressure on Netanyahu to make a deal.

“I think the (Rafah) operation is not meant for the hostages and not meant for killing the Hamas, it’s meant for just for one thing, save the government,” protester Kobi Itzhaki said.

 

AP

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

With a surprise cross-border attack, Russia ruthlessly exposes Ukraine’s weaknesses

The town of Vovchansk in the northern Kharkiv region, liberated from Russian occupation more than 18 months ago, awoke Friday to intense shelling and aerial bombardment. Russia has found another way of stretching Ukraine’s already thin blue line.

President Volodymyr Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials said that Russian efforts to advance towards the town had been thwarted, but the Russians have since tried to cut road links with Vovchansk.

The Russians launched battalion-strength attacks along a 60-kilometer stretch of the border on Friday, claiming to occupy several villages in what is known as the ‘gray zone’ along the frontier, after focusing much of their offensive capabilities this year on a grinding advance in Donetsk in the east that has seen incremental but significant progress.

As of Saturday, it appeared the Russians still held a handful of Ukrainian border villages, with intense aerial bombardment continuing in the Vovchansk area.

The cross-border attack is yet another example of what’s going wrong for the Ukrainians this year. Their forces are thinly stretched, with much less artillery than the Russians, grossly inadequate air defenses and above all a lack of soldiers. Their plight has been worsened by dry weather, allowing Russian mechanized units to move more easily.

The deputy head of Ukrainian Defense Intelligence, Major-General Vadym Skibitsky, told the Economist last week: “Our problem is very simple: we have no weapons. They always knew April and May would be a difficult time for us.”

Ukrainian intelligence estimates that despite immense losses since the full-scale invasion began, Russia has more than half-a-million men now inside Ukraine or at its borders. It is also “generating a division of reserves” in central Russia, according to Skibitsky.

The northern border assault follows the creation of a new Russian military grouping called Sever [North].  George Barros at the Institute for the Study of War in Washington told CNN that Sever is an “operationally significant group.”

“Russia sought to generate 60,000-100,000 troops for its group to attack Kharkiv and we assess it’s closer to 50,000,” Barros says, but “it still has a lot of combat power.”

It’s from this new force that units of armored infantry tried to cross the border. The available evidence suggests they were expected and suffered significant losses. But if more elite units join (there are reports that elements from other divisions may do so) Russia’s ambitions could grow.

As a Ukrainian special forces unit told CNN this weekend, “This is only the beginning, the Russians have a bridgehead for further offensives.”

One former Ukrainian officer who writes about the conflict on the blog Frontelligence says that “Manpower shortages compel Ukraine to avoid deploying large units along the border continuously, with fully stocked and ready for immediate-use artillery.”

He expects the situation to evolve, “with Russian forces deploying more units to penetrate additional border areas or to reinforce initial successes.”

Several analysts expect the Russians to broaden the border attacks westwards to Sumy region, which has seen months of raids by Russian special forces.

The Sever grouping could not attack and occupy a city the size of Kharkiv, but that’s likely not the goal. Barros says that it is instead to compel Ukrainian forces to pivot from Donetsk to Kharkiv region. The Russians seek to “thin Ukrainian forces out along the 600-mile frontline and create opportunities, specifically in Donetsk oblast, which is Russia’s main operational objective for 2024,” Barros says.

The latest cross-border assaults may also divert Ukrainian units from the defense of Kupiansk, also in Kharkiv region, where a Russian assault has stalled for months, as well as create a buffer zone inside Ukraine that the Kremlin says it wants to reduce attacks on Russian cities like Belgorod.

Upping the tempo

What’s happening in Kharkiv is not isolated. The Ukrainian military acknowledged this week a spike in combat engagements (more than 150 on Thursday alone), coming on top of a marked increase from March to April.

In effect, the Russians have the manpower to stretch Ukrainian defenses through multiple points of attack hundreds of kilometers apart, forcing Kyiv to guess where and when an anticipated early-summer offensive will focus.

The increased tempo of attacks exacerbates Ukraine’s two critical vulnerabilities: insufficient manpower and sparse air defenses. Russia is exploiting both in a hurry, keen to establish facts on the ground before a new wave of Western aid can help. That is at least weeks away in any meaningful amounts.

“Manpower remains a core challenge, and Ukraine is working to restore its existing degraded brigades as well as from about 10 new maneuver brigades,” Barros says.

Only in the last month has a law been passed to expand mobilization, nearly two years after Russia mobilized some 300,000 additional troops. The process was bogged down in the Ukrainian parliament for months, and President Zelensky was wary of both the cost and the political fallout of a more extensive mobilization. The numerical inferiority has sharply worsened across the frontlines, providing Russian commanders with a growing number of opportunities to probe for weaknesses.

Western analysts believe that in Chasiv Yar, Donetsk, for example, the Ukrainians may be outnumbered by 10:1, as well as suffering a chronic imbalance in shells and a complete lack of air cover. One Ukrainian military blogger this week estimated that elements of as many as 15 Russian motorized rifle brigades (each of which would have up to 1,000 men) were operating in the Chasiv Yar direction alone.

Lose the high ground around Chasiv Yar and an important belt of industrial towns and cities: Slaviansk, Kramatorsk and Kostyantinyvka, becomes much more vulnerable.

Skibitsky told the Economist that losing Chasiv Yar was a distinct possibility - “not today or tomorrow, of course, but all depending on our reserves and supplies.”

North-east of Chasiv Yar, a soldier called Stanislav told Ukrainian television this week that after a month of “very active hostilities” the Russians “are advancing from the direction of Kreminna, where they are accumulating great reserves.”

“Huge numbers of Russian infantry are attacking day and night, in large and small groups,” the soldier said.

Besides the shortage of trained soldiers, “Russia is leveraging Russian airspace as a sanctuary to strike Kharkiv oblast, highlighting the urgent need for the US to provide more long-range air defense assets and to allow the Ukrainians to use them to intercept Russian aircraft in Russian airspace,” says Barros.

The United States announced Friday a $400 million package of air defense munitions and other weapons, but much more will be needed.

Ukraine’s losses are compounded by a lack of prepared defensive positions behind the front lines. where they could fall back. In Krasnohorivka, for example, Ukrainian units were able for months to use apartment buildings and a brick factory as defensive positions. Slowly they have been obliterated – with one Russian military blogger claiming that artillery fire had buried them “under the rubble of their own shelters.”

President Zelensky and others have talked more about “active defense” – having better defensive fortifications as a building block to turn the tide on Russian advances. Zelensky himself has toured such fortifications. But they are too few and too late in critical areas, especially in Donetsk.

Zelensky asserted this week that “we will be able to stop the [Russians] in the east” when the aid arrives. But he acknowledged that “the situation there is really difficult” and contended that the aid that’s arrived so far is “not the volumes that were voted for.”

“We need everything to come faster,” he added.

Every day that it doesn’t, the Russians edge forward – and the Ukrainians lose soldiers they can’t afford to lose.

Barros says the Russians were prepared for the hiatus in military aid. “The recent Russian gains we see now are not merely opportunistic; the Russians prepared for it and are now exploiting it. Ukraine may need to make difficult decisions due to slowness of US action and the dilemma that is now causing.”

That may amount to trading territory for time. And ultimately accepting that much of the territory now lost may not be recovered.

 

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

The entire Ukrainian society would need to make sacrifices and forget about their peaceful lives to defeat such an enemy as Russia, Defense Ministry spokesman Dmitry Lazutkin has argued.

Kiev is overhauling its military service system to boost conscription numbers following a series of setbacks in its conflict with Moscow, with harsh reforms set to come into force next week.

“Globally speaking, starting on May 18, when the mobilization law comes into force, first of all, the approach to this war will change,”Lazutkin told Espresso TV on Saturday. “Because this situation, when some people are fighting at the front lines, while others are living their quiet lives, is obviously coming to an end.”

Life in Kiev is “strikingly different” from the situation in the east of the country, which is “abnormal,” according to the official.

“It would be normal if our enemy was weak. But with such an enemy, the whole country and the whole society need to mobilize,”Lazutkin added.

Ukraine has been desperate to replace nearly half a million casualties – by Moscow’s estimates – since the outbreak of hostilities with Russia in February 2022. Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said last week that Ukraine has lost more than 111,000 soldiers in 2024 alone.

Last month, President Vladimir Zelensky enacted amendments to the conscription rules, lowering the draft age to 25, automating summons and greatly expanding the powers of enlistment officers while introducing assorted restrictions for draft dodgers. 

The country’s foreign ministry has suspended consular services for military-eligible Ukrainians abroad. Under the legislation, the fines for violations of the military registration rules will also increase up to $520, with Ukrainian authorities threatening to block bank accounts and impose penalties on the property of those trying to avoid military service.

In response to the changes, there has been a surge in Ukrainians men seeking to flee the country. Border Service spokesman Andrey Demchenko recently said that around 120-150 people are caught trying to flee Ukraine every day, while some end up dying while trying to cross the border.

 

CNN/RT

At the 11th Bola Tinubu Colloquium on March 29, 2019, Bola Tinubu, then only a powerful but unofficial pillar of the APC, gave us an ominous presage of his administration that we all either ignored or sniggered at but which is now eerily materializing.

“If we reduce the purchasing power of the people, we can further slow down the economy," he said to a mysterious ovation from the audience. “Let’s widen the tax net. Those who are not paying now, even if it’s inclusive of Bola Tinubu, let the net get bigger and we take in more taxes. And that is what we must do in the country.”

Many people were genuinely bewildered and wondered what Tinubu meant. I was, too. For one, there is clearly neither economic logic nor even moral merit in reducing the purchasing power of a people, slowing down the economy, and then taxing the same people whose purchasing power has been reduced in a depressed economy. Why would anyone propose that as the anchor of his economic policy?

It’s defensible to suggest the broadening of the tax base of an economy, but not even the most ruthless, unfeeling, sadistic, and misanthropic tyrant would openly advocate the mass pauperization of the people as an economic policy.

So, many people, including me, concluded that Tinubu merely slipped up. What he meant to say was inconsistent with what he actually said. It was a fair concession. But there was more to the slip-up than many of us cared to accept at the time.

I am a student of Sigmund Freud. I was exposed to his psychoanalysis in my secondary school days by one Steven Omolaiye, a 1984 University of Ibadan sociology graduate, who was the project supervisor of a hospital the European Economic Community built in my hometown.

He was from Ogori-Magongo in what is now Kogi State. I have no idea where he is now—or if he is even alive—but I first learned about Freudian slip and of Sigmund Freud from him. When I got to Bayero University, Kano, for my undergraduate degree, I read almost every book Freud wrote, even though I was a mass communication student.

I am bringing this up to establish my non-credentialed bona fides to psychoanalyze Tinubu’s 2019 slip-up in light of what his administration is turning out to be. When Tinubu idealized increasing the tax burden of the people at the very moment that their purchasing power is weak and the tempo of the economy is decelerated, he was betraying, without he himself realizing it, a subconscious, deep-seated longing for the sort of invidiously stratified, anti-poor regime he creates and strengthens with every policy.

“From error to error, one discovers the entire truth,” Sigmund Freud once said. In other words, errors in speech and in writing sometimes serve as lenses that help reveal an unconscious, suppressed, or subdued desire or internal thought.

If I had written this in 2019 or, especially, in 2023, I might have been accused of being “sponsored” (everyone who writes what we don’t like is “sponsored” in Nigeria) to undermine Tinubu’s chances at election.

It bears repeating that Tinubu’s first act upon being inaugurated as president was to announce the removal of petrol subsidies which, in one fell swoop, reduced the purchasing power of the people and slowed down the economy in unexampled ways.

The “floating” of the naira merely strengthened the wickedness that the removal of petrol subsidies unleashed. The astronomical increase in electricity tariffs and the foxy dilly-dallying over increasing the national minimum wage are metaphoric rubbing of salt in the wounds of reduced purchasing power and slow economy, the necessary precursors to Tinubu’s next stage: widening the tax net.

The “next stage” of Tinubu's economic masterplan started in earnest on May 6 when he directed the Central Bank of Nigeria to require banks to assess a 0.05 percent “cybersecurity” fee on every electronic bank transaction—in addition to multiple bank fees that have already made Nigerian banks notorious for being the only banks where you lose money by saving it there.

While I was seething with angst at the unceasingly escalating economic assault on the poor and the weak in Nigeria in the less than one year that Tinubu has been president, I saw a headline in the Daily Trust of May 9 that almost ruined my day and convinced me beyond all shadows of doubt that Tinubu is single-mindedly determined to push through the dystopian economic vision he inadvertently articulated in 2019.

The headline was, “More Burden For Nigerians As Tax Committee Recommends VAT Hike.” The paper reported that “The Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax reforms has recommended an upward review of the Value Added Tax (VAT).”

Apparently, even the chairman of the committee, identified as Taiwo Oyedele, is aware that there would be an outcry, so he quickly said poor people and small businesses won’t be affected by the proposed increase in VAT.

“We would ensure that it doesn’t affect businesses,” he said. “The only thing is to look at basic consumption from food, education, medical services and accommodation will carry zero percent VAT. So for the poor and small businesses, no VAT.”

Of course, even a novice in economics knows that when companies are burdened with higher taxes, they transfer this burden to consumers, which invalidates Oyedele’s assurance that poor people and small businesses would be exempt from the impending VAT hike since inflation, which higher taxes on businesses will activate, is an ill wind that blows nobody any good.

But Oyedele thinks Nigerians are unthinking chumps. He said the government had extracted a commitment from businesses that they won’t jack up the prices of their goods and services in response to the increased tax obligation they will have to contend with. “We have spoken to businesses about it, and they won’t increase the product price,” he said. “We want to make sure when we do VAT reform, no one will increase the price of commodities. We will work the mathematics with the private sector.”

Why does he think Nigerians would be persuaded by his false assurances? When Tinubu announced the removal of petrol subsidies on May 29, 2023, and petrol marketers suddenly increased the pump price of petrol from less than 200 naira to more than 500 naira on old stock that was subsidized by the Nigerian taxpayer, the government didn’t intervene.

It was the most nakedly immoral, government-sanctioned predation of the people that I have seen anywhere in the world. Why would a government that tolerated, even encouraged, that sort of rape of the people be trusted to persuade businesses not to increase the prices of their goods and services in response to increases in their tax liabilities?

In any case, we now know from a retrospective reading of Tinubu’s 2019 speech that his grand plan is to economically disempower the people, depress the economy, and tax people and businesses to death.

I am honestly at a loss what Tinubu hopes to gain from this other than to make the vast majority of the people so economically disaffiliated that they are vulnerable to manipulation, as I pointed out last week. But I hope he is aware that he is sowing the seeds for a spontaneous eruption of a disabling convulsion. There is a limit to what even the most docile humans can tolerate.

My genuine hope is that Tinubu and the people close to him understand that they are brewing the ingredients of a potentially all-consuming conflagration and beat a strategic retreat. It’s not late.

Last week, Nigeria was faced with what Yoruba call Egbinrin ote. When afflictions come in multiple, they become a plague. A plague is almost synonymous with Yoruba’s “Egbinrin ote.” Literally, Egbinrin Ote is leaves of conspiracy. When you pluck a single leaf out of the branch of a tree of conspiracy, another leaf sprouts immediately to replace it. Any attempt at striking one down, multiple leaves grow from it.

On Tuesday, the country literally went into a feverish frenzy. Nigeria’s Central Bank had shot up the whole nation’s adrenaline by a considerable measure. In a circular, the bank directed all banks to begin the implementation of an amended 2015 Cybersecurity Act which levied 0.05% on all electronic transactions payable to the office of the National Security Adviser (NSA). Same week, the back-and-forth between the abducted editor of FirstNews, Segun Olatunji and Femi Gbajabiamila, Chief of Staff to the president, got to its denouement. That same week, temper boiled at high Fahrenheit over the detention and release after ten days of Nigerian investigative journalist, Daniel Ojukwu, who spent 10 days in police cell. As the week wound to a close, President Bola Tinubu, who we were praying hadn’t sunk into the Bermuda Triangle, as his whereabouts were unknown for about seven days, suddenly emerged from nowhere. No questions were asked; no apology was given. And everybody lived happily ever thereafter. In the same week, the swollen wound on the Rivers State leg suddenly burst open. The reeking smell that oozed out of it caused the world to hold a handkerchief to its nose.

Nigeria was that Egbinrin ote. Last week, as citizens contended with one bad shoot, another tree node opened, and before we knew it, multiple sprouts of afflictions shot out. As we contended with what was almost becoming a pestilential plague of Nigerian presidents suddenly disappearing from the radar, another plague sprouted. And on, and on. It was almost a plague per day. One after the other, afflictions rose a second, third, fourth and multiple times. 

Since President Muhammadu Buhari, the opera of Nigerian presidents suddenly disappearing without trace seemed to have become a staple on the national menu. In March, 2021, Buhari had disappeared from the radar “for routine medical checkup.” In March 2017, the then 74-year-old president suddenly reappeared on the radar, after unceremoniously disappearing for seven weeks. He had jetted to the UK to treat an ailment which, till he left office, remained undisclosed. The rumour that followed this non-disclosure was intriguing. Some cynics wickedly alleged that the character that was flown back to Nigeria after weeks of treatment in a UK hospital was a Buhari doppelganger from Sudan. They maintained that the original had passed on. Buhari too didn’t help matters. Anytime his minders failed to put on the latch and he spoke ex-tempore, the president inflicted a public relations migraine on them. He veered off course into irrelevances like a wandering evil spirit.

As a result of his disappearing acts, in an earlier piece I did entitled, The President Is A Sick Man: Buharis’ secret surgeries inside Oneida yacht,(April 4, 2021) I traced the history of presidents who went AWOL, dwelling particularly on Africa. Permit me to reproduce it here. The President Is A Sick Man is the title of a book written by Philadelphia-born award-winning American journalist, Matthew Algeo. It is a chronology of the medical travails of President Grover Cleveland, lawyer, statesman and one of the most famous public speakers of his time. Cleveland was the 22nd and 24th president of the United States of America, from 1885 to 1889 and 1893 to 1897. The book chronicles how the health of a president and the health of the nation are inexorably linked.

Cleveland was America’s first and only two non-consecutive-terms president in history. He was also the first democrat to become the American president in 28 years. Famously renowned for always speaking the truth, he was regarded as a very virtuous man, so much that his most memorable quotation, ramped up into a cliché, was “Tell the Truth.” America was later to find out that, wrapped up inside that Cleveland shawl of “telling the truth” was the most untruthful cover-up in American history, far more scandalous than Watergate. What revealed Cleveland’s real persona was his battle with mouth cancer and an extraordinary, even if political cover-up of this infirmity that lasted almost a century, garnished with a successful attempt to keep it from the American people.

On May 5, 1893, two weeks shy of his 56th birthday, the second day of his swearing in for a second term, Cleveland noticed a rough spot on the roof of his mouth which, by the prodding of his wife, Frances, prompted the invitation of the president’s friend, New York surgeon and Cleveland family physician, Dr. Joseph Decatur Bryant, to look it up. Bryant diagnosed oral tumour, malignant in nature, “an ulcerated surface with an oval outline about the size of a quarter of a dollar.” He called it a “bad looking tenant” that should be evicted post-haste.

President Cleveland was thoroughly afraid. His fear, articulated by Bryant, was that, if the cancer had gone into metastasis, the lower part of his left eye socket would be removed during surgery and thus permanently impairing his vision. Thus, on July 1, 1893, Cleveland got lost inside the Oneida, his friend, Commodore Elias Benedict’s yacht. For five good days, he was declared missing. William Williams Keen, America’s most famous and celebrated surgeon of the time and a team of other surgeons, performed the surgery to remove the cancerous tumor that had grown dangerously and embarrassingly on the president’s upper jaw and palate. The most shocking aspect of it was that, one very enterprising newspaper reporter, E. J. Edwards, later got the information and reported the secret surgery. Cleveland’s own Bayo Onanugas descended on the journalist with the highest acerbity ever. They even labeled him “a disgrace to journalism.” It was not until decades later that one of Cleveland’s surgeons exposed the startling disappearance.

I told this long story so as to bring to the fore the Nigerian and African experience of the Cleveland disease. It is not to focus on the disappearance acts of presidents per se but the stunt of keeping their ailments out of the people’s knowledge. While some may argue that the Cleveland covert surgery legitimizes many similar equations in Africa, the fact that this happened in America, in the “dark age” of the 19th century, delegitimizes such argument.

Drawing shawls on the health status of African leaders today while they suddenly disappear to undertake their own surgeries inside Cleveland’s type Oneida yacht has a history behind it. It is the mentality of continuation of the great empires and monarchies of Africa where kings were perceived to be infallible, super-human and incapable of falling prey to the afflictions of plebeians and common people. African leaders, seeing themselves in same mould of kings and emperors, believe that they must not be heard having failing health, nor their health status made public. In what other way can it be said to them that, no matter one’s status in life, no one is immune to death and health failings? This trend that I call the Kabiyesi mentality, has bred a pandemic of leaders of Africa who, almost like Cleveland, “abdicate their thrones” covertly to seek remedies abroad, without the knowledge of their people.

In October, 2016, President Peter Mutharika of Malawi also disappeared from the radar. He was 76 years old. Like Tinubu, he had gone to attend the United Nations General Assembly meeting mid-September and didn’t come back until October 16. This provoked speculations in Malawi that he had died, with his cagey aides failing to divulge his whereabouts. There were later disclosures through the grapevine that he had vamoosed to some parts of Europe to attend to his health. Same was the story of Gabonese President, Ali Bongo, son of Omar Bongo. At a time in November, 2018, Ali was said to have been “seriously ill,” with speculations rife that he had died after suffering from stroke. He was just 59 years then. Findings however later revealed that he had not died but that was holed up in a Saudi Arabia hospice.

Oil-rich Angola’s Jose Eduardo Dos Santos, who ruled the country from 1979, also eloped to Spain. He had sought medical remedy to an undisclosed ailment in May, 2017. It was after about three weeks of his noticeable absence from the public that his foreign minister, after pressure from the opposition, confirmed his unceremonious absence. In the same vein, until his death at age 95, Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe was always dashing in and out of Singapore hospitals. Benin Republic’s Patrice Talon was like our own military leader, Ibrahim Babangida, who disclosed to the whole world that he was afflicted by a disease called radiculopathy. After the 59-year old president, who took over from Thomas Yayi-Boni, disappeared from the radar for about three weeks, his minders, on June 19, 2017, released information that he had undergone two successful surgical operations in Paris. They said doctors had found a lesion in his prostate. This further necessitated another surgery in his digestive system.

As straightforward as President Umaru Yar’Adua was, his major blight was non-disclosure of his health status. It is obvious that President Tinubu is not medically alright. It will be foolhardy of us as a people to expect a man who, by his own claim, is 72 years old, to have the agility and health of a youth. But Nigerians deserve to know what ails their president. We will pray for him. Like the man next door, he is human, capable of taking ill and dying. It will be inhuman to scoff at his health.

Apart from Tinubu’s appearance and disappearing acts, the second Egbinrin ote that afflicted Nigeria last week wasthe CBN levy. Yes, the hues and cries over this levy are petering out, but we need to know what lies in the orifice of the minds of current Nigerian leaders. Some have labeled the Tinubu administration an Agbalowomeri government. Literally, an Agbalowomeri is one who squeezes the blood of the needy for their own existence. This sobriquet was made famous by J. F. Odunjo’s 1958 iconic book, Agbalomeri Baale Jontolo. In it, a wealthy villagehead named Agbalowomeri greedily forced his subjects to patronize him, in spite of their poverty. He gladly enjoyed the pain the people went through. He met his waterloo thereafter. A clearer insight of the persona of an Agbalowomeri was provided by D. Olu Olagoke in his famous The Incorruptible Judge play. Ajala, a young job-seeker, was forced to offer bribe for employment as Clerk in the Government Development Department. A demand of “kola” of £5 was made from an indigent Ajala by a top civil servant, Mr. Agbalowomeri who, unbeknown to, was collecting marked money in what was a sting operation by the police. The police then swooped on him.

Yes, Buhari left a shell, and Tinubu inherited a parlous economy that was heading to kiss the canvass. The fact however remains that this government has been grossly anti-poor people in its policies of close to one year. It seems to take delight in mass pauperization. But for government’s unfeeling desire to inflict pain on the people, the provisions of Section 42(2)(a) of the Cybercrime (Provision, Prevention etc.) (Amended) Act 2024 are unambiguous and clear enough. They were that, “business specified in the Second Schedule of the Act” and not ordinary Nigerians, were meant to pay the CBN levy and not ordinary Nigerians.

Now comes the next plague. Those who voted Tinubu in the light of his testimonial of having fought the military for its repression of free speech are getting aghast at his government’s sagging human rights records. The examples of FirstNews’ Olatunji and FIJ’s Ojukwu cast a dark patch on whatever democratic credentials Tinubu parades. Let us be clear on this: No person in their right senses should encourage yellow journalism where untruth and sensationalism are deified above facts.

Our laws, however, provide for due process of apportioning legal comeuppances on yellow journalism. They, in the same vein, frown at Sani Abacha’s Colonel Frank Omenka’s antediluvian horror prosecutorial method. Omeka thrived in locking victims up in dark cellars and allegedly throwing some inside the lagoon for fishes to devour. Olatunji’s Gestapo-like arrest and his subjection to inhuman detention, as well as Ojukwu’s slam into detention without trial for ten days are crude memories of Abacha. If Gbajabiamila knew the civilized route of seeking retraction and apologies for an offensive story as he later demanded and got from the publishers of FirstNews, why was that route an anathema to him, ab-initio?

Same goes for Adejoke Orelope-Adefulire, a former senior special assistant to the president. She could have gone the legal route of suing FIJ and Ojukwu for their investigative story which alleged that she transferred N147 million of government funds marked for school construction into a restaurant’s bank account. Why then get Ojukwu locked up like a common criminal for ten days? The way the Tinubu government is going, it is turning the Cybercrime (Provision, Prevention etc.) (Amended) Act 2024 into another Decree 4. That decree was the military’s weapon of inflicting weeping, wailing and gnashing of teeth on free press. All men and women of goodwill should disclaim this government’s furtive opening of the exit door for Abacha to enter the democratic hall in Nigeria.

The last Egbinrin ote came in the form of a story that also came to a frightening point last week. It is the unending tango between FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike and Rivers State governor, Siminalayi Fubara. In an earlier piece I did with the title, As Fubara Presses The Nuclear Button, (December 17, 2023) I laid the blame of the protracted crisis squarely where it belonged – Wike and Tinubu. Tinubu, because, in his meeting with the governor and Rivers stakeholders in Aso Rock last December, if he had acted like a statesman and not an APC leader, Rivers will not be a smoking cauldron that it is today. You will recollect what a member of the Rivers Elders’ Forum and former Rivers State Commissioner for Works, David Briggs, had revealed what actually transpired. 

On why Tinubu, who knew the grave infraction against the constitution that the 27 lawmakers loyal to Wike had committed by defecting to the APC, Briggs claimed Tinubu said, “I’m the leader of the APC in Nigeria. And you are telling me when babies are born into my family, I should ask them to go.” Tinubu thereafter dictatorially got the parties, including Fubara, to sign a pre-written agreement, apparently under duress. In the words of Briggs, “He (Tinubu) emphasized the fact that he is the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, and anybody who tends to say no to what he is saying, it has consequences.” Has Tinubu ever called Wike to his office to tell him the simple truth? I doubt. Who can peer light into the dilating eyes of the lion, the animal which inflicts tribal marks on any animal in the jungle (Ògìdán olólà ijù)? The truth is, Wike’s totalitarian approach to power and his violent disposition are the bane of today’s Rivers politics. The day Wike accepts that no one can hold on to power ad-infinitum is the day the good people of Rivers would be rid of the Wike-inflicted conundrum.

The LORD is my strength and my shield; my heart trusted in him, and I am helped: therefore my heart greatly rejoiceth; and with my song will I praise him ~ Psalms 28:7.

Introduction:

Nothing can compare with God, nor can replace Him and the help He brings to His people in their hours of need. Knowing Him and enjoying His intervening Arms are worth infinitely more than all the riches in this world. Man can fix no price upon God’s assistance; it’s a gracious gift of the Holy Ghost.

Oftentimes, our efforts to help ourselves in our troubles woefully fail us, and our best wits and wisdom prove to be unreliable. Job certainly knew this pretty well when he wrote that very beautiful ode in Job 28:7-23. He insisted that no “ravenous bird” can beat the help of God, not even the “lion’s whelps” or the fiercest beasts can assail it.
God's promises of incredible supernatural assistance are rooted in His faithfulness and sovereignty (Psalm 36:5). Jesus Christ taught us that when we prioritize God's kingdom and righteousness, He will meet our needs to ensure our noble accomplishments on earth (Matthew 6:33).

The order of this world was established, and is being maintained till now, by theWisdom of God. Thus, the dispensations of providential intervention are regulated by the highest wisdom, and supernatural assistance is unfathomable and unpurchasable by man.

Notwithstanding, we are, at least, required to demonstrate confidence in God to enjoy His supernatural interventions. Trusting God and investing our lives in His kingdom involve surrendering our plans and desires to His will. 

As we actively entrust our lives to God, we receive access to His abundant grace, and thereafter, He begins to work on our behalf. He assists us to enjoy fulfillment on earth in accordance with His perfect plan and orchestrates circumstances suitable for our growth and advancement.

In the natural world, confidence and trust go a long way to promoting fellowship and mutual assistance. Understandably so, the help of God also shows up marvelously for those who put their trust in Him.

David generously attested to this fact, and he also called our attention to the significance of trust in covenant benefits (Psalm 28:7; 37:40). He faced many battles in life, yet he made the choice to look up in faith to God for help, and marvelous help regularly showed up for him at the various bitter points of his life’s volatile experiences(Psalm 121:1).

Cultivating And Demonstrating Confidence In God

One of the major ways your confidence in God can be groomed and equally demonstrated is through your speech: “Let the redeemed of the LORD say so … (Psalms 107:2). Sound is a critical sign of life; your sound produces your signs (Psalms 18:43-45).

Besides, to build and demonstrate our confidence in God, we must also be regular in His sanctuary (Psalms 122:1). The sanctuary is God’s appointed place of encounter with His covenant children (Psalm 20:2).

Everyone who looks up to God for help must therefore keep regular statutory appointments with Him in His holy sanctuary (Hebrews 4:16; 10:25). The sanctuary is the place where God sends help and supernatural strength in divine packets to those who trust in Him (Psalms 20:1-3; 84:7).

Furthermore, active confidence in God’s help is generated and demonstrated when we give sacrificially unto God’s kingdom causes (Psalms 20:3). Doubtlessly, giving with such a stance is incredibly help-provoking! Nothing of value comes without a cost, for values are functions of costs.

Without mincing words, something mysterious usually happens at offering time: the undercurrent of supernatural power and interventions flow at offering times, releasing unmistakable dimensions of supernatural assistance.

In one of the notorious battles of the Philistines against Israel, Samuel needed a crucial victory, but that waited until he gave an unusual offering unto the Lord. Thereafter, he received marvelous help (1Samuel 7:7-10).

That day, the LORD thundered against the Philistines to confuse them, and to thwart and frustrate their plans. They were smitten, routed and utterly defeated before Israel. Alleluia!

In another instance, Israel became dispirited in her battle against the Edomites for lack of water, but the story changed at offering time (2 Kings 3:17-20).

Flowing from all these above, it appears that God reckons with our anxious requestsfor His intervention only to the degree of our desperate sacrifices on His holy altar(Matthew 5:7; Luke 6:38). Anyone from any background can access staggering grace and help for greatness if only he can cultivate a godly attitude of cheerful, sacrificial offering.

Meanwhile, with this hidden powerassigned to offerings, the puzzling question is: “are men now expected to buy divine help”?  Most emphatically, no! God’s help is absolutely unpurchasable! Rather, the personal surrender and sacrifice of the will involved in the acts of offering attract to it all its value and potency.

That’s also the reason any robust teaching on the subject of biblical offering always includes not only giving of money, but also deploying our time, talents, treasure, strength, influence and social positions for use to the glory of God and in the highest good of humanity.

When you habitually give these generously, cheerfully and sacrificially, it is accountedthat you have laid “your all” upon God’s holy altar, and you thus qualify to attract anything from Him who owns heaven and earth. No wonder then that tides easily change their rage and events their course when we offer with the right attitude and in the right places.

Friends and brethren, when this body of truth above is lined up to count for you, help from above in tandem with the divine help within you will be excited to act in your favour. You will be a wonder to many, and your light will shine to brighten your world! You won’t miss it, in Jesus name. Happy Sunday!

____________________

Bishop Taiwo Akinola,

Rhema Christian Church,

Otta, Ogun State, Nigeria.

Connect with Bishop Akinola via these channels:

Facebook: www.facebook.com/bishopakinola

SMS/WhatsApp: +234 802 318 4987

Solomon counsels believers in Christ: “Do not lean on your own understanding.” (Proverbs 3:5). This is because the ways of God are counter-intuitive. To first understand many things about the kingdom of God, we first often misunderstand them.

For example, we are accustomed to viewing our lives from the past to the present to the future. However, the Bible suggests that time flows from the future into the present and then into the past. Therefore, the believer should be future-oriented, forgetting the past. (Philippians 3:13).

Joel’s Prophecy

“It shall come to pass afterwards that I will pour out My Spirit on all flesh; your sons and your daughters shall prophesy, your old men shall dream dreams, your young men shall see visions. And also on My menservants and on My maidservants, I will pour out My Spirit in those days.” (Joel 2:28-29).

This is a prophecy about something that will happen in the future. However, the Word of God says everything in the future is already in the past:

“That which has been is what will be, that which is done is what will be done, and there is nothing new under the sun. Is there anything of which it may be said, ‘See, this is new’? It has already been in ancient times before us.” (Ecclesiastes 1:9-10).

Jesus is the Word of God. (Revelation 19:13). He is the same yesterday, today, and forever.(Hebrews 13:8).

Did people dream in the past? Yes indeed! But young men dreamt in the Old Testament. Joseph was 17 when he had his dreams. But Nebuchadnezzar was 42 when he had his. There does not seem to be any consistent pattern there.

Did people see visions in the past? Yes indeed! God said in the Old Testament: “I have also spoken by the prophets, and have multiplied visions.” (Hosea 12:10).

“God spoke to Israel in the visions of the night, and said, ‘Jacob, Jacob!’ And he said, ‘Here I am.’ So He said, ‘I am God, the God of your father; do not fear to go down to Egypt, for I will make of you a great nation there. I will go down with you to Egypt, and I will also surely bring you up again; and Joseph will put his hand on your eyes.’” (Genesis 46:2-4).

But Israel was an old man of 130 years when he received these visions and went to Egypt. Ezekiel was in his 50s when he received his visions of God. In his case, Daniel was 85.

What about the prophecy of the outpouring of the Holy Spirit? Has it been fulfilled?

Jesus says the Holy Spirit was not yet given in the days of His flesh:

“On the last day, that great day of the feast, Jesus stood and cried out, saying, ‘If anyone thirsts, let him come to Me and drink. He who believes in Me, as the Scripture has said, out of his heart will flow rivers of living water.’ But this He spoke concerning the Spirit, whom those believing in Him would receive; for the Holy Spirit was not yet given, because Jesus was not yet glorified.” (John 7:37-40).

But Peter declared this prophecy fulfilled when the disciples received the Holy Spirit at the Pentecost. Miraculously, they were speaking in foreign tongues and bystanders thought they were drunk:

“Peter, standing up with the eleven, raised his voice and said to them, ‘Men of Judea and all who dwell in Jerusalem, let this be known to you, and heed my words. For these are not drunk, as you suppose, since it is only the third hour of the day. But this is what was spoken by the prophet Joel: ‘And it shall come to pass in the last days, says God, that I will pour out of My Spirit on all flesh; your sons and your daughters shall prophesy, your young men shall see visions, your old men shall dream dreams.’” (Acts 2:14-17).

Joel’s prophecy was fulfilled at the Pentecost and it was not. It was partially fulfilled but not fully fulfilled. The prophecy says God will pour His Spirit on all flesh but not everybody received the Holy Spirit at the Pentecost.

“For we know in part and we prophesy in part. But when that which is perfect has come, then that which is in part will be done away.” (1 Corinthians 13:9-10).

There were only about 120 people in the Upper Room at Pentecost. So, the Spirit was not poured upon ALL flesh. It was only poured on some flesh. At Pentecost, some received the Spirit before the appointed time. At the appointed time, all flesh will receive the Holy Spirit.

If, as Solomon says, every new thing has already happened in ancient times, we should ask: “Was the Holy Spirit poured upon people in the past before the Pentecost?”

Revelation Knowledge

God validated my regeneration when I received Christ by teaching me this song about David: “When the Spirit of the Lord is upon my soul I will dance like David danced.” I just woke on a Sunday morning singing this new song and when I got to church that morning, I found everybody singing the same song.

But was David born again?

According to what the Holy Spirit, the Spirit of Truth, revealed by teaching me this song, David was born again. The song shows the Holy Spirit was in me like He was in David. That means, like me, David was born again.

David could not have written the Messianic Psalms in the Bible if he was not born again. Jesus confirms that the Holy Spirit spoke through David:

“Jesus answered and said, while He taught in the temple, “How is it that the scribes say that the Christ is the Son of David? For David himself said by the Holy Spirit: ‘The Lord said to my Lord, ‘Sit at My right hand, till I make Your enemies Your footstool.’” (Mark 12:35-36).

David could not have heard God the Father speaking to God the Son if he was not born again. When David repented of his adultery with Bathsheba, he pleaded with God: “Do not cast me away from Your presence, and do not take Your Holy Spirit from me.” (Psalm 51:12).

This shows he had the Holy Spirit.

Jesus Himself confirms that some people received the Holy Spirit in the Old Testament. He says to Nicodemus:

“Most assuredly, I say to you, unless one is born of water and the Spirit, he cannot enter the kingdom of God. That which is born of the flesh is flesh, and that which is born of the Spirit is spirit. Do not marvel that I said to you, ‘You must be born again.’ The wind blows where it wishes, and you hear the sound of it, but cannot tell where it comes from and where it goes. So is everyone who is born of the Spirit.” Nicodemus answered and said to Him, “How can these things be?” Jesus answered and said to him, “Are you the teacher of Israel, and do not know these things? (John 3:5-10), NKJV.

Jesus expected Nicodemus to know that some people were born again in the Old Testament. He was surprised that he did not know.

John the Baptist knew about the Holy Spirit:

John bore witness, saying, ‘I saw the Spirit descending from heaven like a dove, and He remained upon (Jesus). I did not know Him, but He who sent me to baptize with water said to me, ‘Upon whom you see the Spirit descending, and remaining on Him, this is He who baptizes with the Holy Spirit.’” (John 1:32-33).

John knew about the Holy Spirit because he had the Holy Spirit. God told Zacharias about his son, John the Baptist:

“He will be great in the sight of the Lord, and shall drink neither wine nor strong drink. He will also be filled with the Holy Spirit, even from his mother’s womb.” (Luke 1:15). CONTINUED.

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In a stunning reversal of fortune, Nigeria's naira has plummeted to claim the unenviable title of the world's worst-performing currency in the past month, according to a recent Bloomberg report. This development heaps pressure on the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to consider further interest rate hikes.

With the naira depreciating to 1,466.31 against the dollar, hitting its weakest level since March 20, the report underscores the critical need for action. The scarcity of the US dollar locally exacerbates the situation, with Thursday's supply dwindling to a mere $84 million, half of the previous day's allocation.

Earlier accolades lauding the naira's performance by CBN governor, Yemi Cardoso, have now been overshadowed by these recent challenges. Despite Cardoso attributing the naira's previous success to market reforms and positive sentiments from international investors, the current downturn raises concerns about sustained stability.

Razia Khan, Chief Economist for Africa and the Middle East at Standard Chartered, anticipates a further strain on the market as $1.3 billion in naira futures mature by month-end, potentially fueling increased demand for dollars. This looming scenario underscores the volatile nature of the Naira.

The CBN faces mounting pressure to take decisive action following its upcoming policy meeting on May 21, with possibility for additional rate hikes echoing previous increases in February and March totaling 600 basis points. These hikes had initially bolstered the naira's value, offering respite to investors seeking higher returns.

The naira's vulnerability extends beyond official markets, with informal exchanges also witnessing a decline to 1,468 naira against the dollar on Friday.

Abubakar Muhammed, CEO of Forward Marketing Bureau de Change Ltd., attributes this trend to heightened demand from individuals and small businesses, indicating broader economic uncertainties.

Notably, Nigeria isn't alone in grappling with currency woes. Zambia's kwacha hit a record low, while Ghana's cedi weakened to its lowest level since 2022, both countries navigating complex debt restructuring processes. Ayodele Salami, Chief Investment Officer for UK-based Emerging Markets Investment Management Ltd., highlights the impact of debt negotiations on investor confidence across Africa.

Amidst these challenges, the naira and other African currencies face mounting pressure from domestic demand for dollars, particularly for raw material imports, including oil. These multifaceted factors underscore the urgent need for strategic interventions to stabilize Nigeria's currency and restore confidence in its economic outlook.

Tragedy struck two farming communities in Zamfara State as bandits mercilessly took the lives of at least 30 farmers in separate attacks. While details are yet to be fully disclosed, the police spokesperson in Zamfara, Yazid Abu Abubakar, confirmed the grim events in two local government areas of the state.

According to sources, the assaults occurred on Thursday, ravaging Maradun and Tsafe local government areas. In Maradun, the renowned Islamic cleric Makwashi Maradun Mai Jan Baki and another individual were among the victims, with two of the cleric’s children still missing following the attack.

The brutality extended to Gidangoga village, where three more individuals fell victim to the bandits. However, the villagers retaliated fiercely, eliminating 24 assailants and recovering eight motorbikes.

Residents lamented the escalating frequency of attacks in Maradun, forcing many to abandon their homes in fear of reprisals.

Meanwhile, reports from Tsafe LGA revealed that Bilbis village bore the brunt of the banditry, resulting in the tragic deaths of 20 civilians.