Wednesday, 30 October 2024 05:15

What to know after Day 979 of Russia-Ukraine war

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WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Russia fires missiles to simulate 'massive' response to a nuclear attack

Russia test-fired missiles over distances of thousands of miles on Tuesday to simulate a "massive" nuclear response to an enemy first strike.

"Given the growing geopolitical tensions and the emergence of new external threats and risks, it is important to have modern and constantly ready-to-use strategic forces," President Vladimir Putin said as he announced the exercise.

It took place at a critical moment in the Russia-Ukraine war, after weeks of Russian signals to the West that Moscow will respond if the United States and its allies allow Kyiv to fire longer-range missiles deep into Russia.

On Monday NATO said that North Korea has sent troops to western Russia, something Moscow has not denied.

In televised comments, Defence Minister Andrei Belousov told Putin that the purpose of the drill was to practise delivering "a massive nuclear strike by strategic offensive forces in response to a nuclear strike by the enemy".

The exercise involved Russia's full nuclear "triad" of ground-, sea- and air-launched missiles.

A Yars intercontinental ballistic missile was launched from Plesetsk cosmodrome in northwest Russia to Kamchatka, a peninsula in the far east. Sineva and Bulava ballistic missiles were fired from submarines, and cruise missiles were launched from strategic bomber planes, the defence ministry said.

The 2-1/2-year-old war is entering what Russian officials say is its most dangerous phase as the West considers how to shore up Ukraine while Russian forces advance in the east of the country.

Putin said using nuclear weapons would be an "extremely exceptional measure".

"I stress that we are not going to get involved in a new arms race, but we will maintain nuclear forces at the level of necessary sufficiency," he said.

He added that Russia was moving to new "stationary and mobile-based missile systems" which have a reduced launch preparation time and could overcome missile defence systems.

The drill follows an Oct. 18 exercise in the Tver region, northwest of Moscow, involving field movements by a unit equipped with Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles, capable of striking U.S. cities.

NUCLEAR SIGNALS

Since the start of the war, Putin has sent a series of pointed signals to the West, including by changing Russia's position on major nuclear treaties and announcing the deployment of tactical nuclear missiles to neighbouring Belarus.

Ukraine has accused him of nuclear blackmail. NATO says it will not be intimidated by Russian threats.

Last month the Kremlin leader approved changes to the official nuclear doctrine, extending the list of scenarios under which Moscow would consider using such weapons.

Under the changes, Russia would consider any assault on it supported by a nuclear power to be a joint attack - a warning to the United States not to help Ukraine strike deep into Russia with conventional weapons.

Putin has said that Russia does not need to resort to the use of nuclear weapons in order to achieve victory in Ukraine.

Russia is the world's largest nuclear power. Together, Russia and the U.S. control 88% of the world's nuclear warheads.

U.S. officials say they have seen no change to Russia's nuclear deployment posture during the war. But the United States in 2022 was so concerned about the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons by Russia that it warned Putin over the consequences of using such weapons, according to Central Intelligence Agency Director Bill Burns.

 

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine to force another 160,000 men into military – official

Kiev will conscript 160,000 more troops over the next three months, according to statements from lawmakers and media outlets. More than a million soldiers have already been drafted, yet high losses have left the Ukrainian Armed Forces plagued by manpower shortages.

Speaking in parliament on Tuesday, Ukrainian lawmaker Alexey Goncharenko said that “1.05 million citizens have been recruited into the defense forces” since the conflict with Russia escalated in February 2022.

“We aim to call up 160,000 more individuals, which will allow us to staff military units with up to 85% personnel,” he said, noting that this information came from Alexander Litvinenko, the secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council.

Shortly afterwards, AFP reported that these troops would be called up over the next three months, citing an unnamed “security source.”

The Ukrainian Armed Forces had around 250,000 active-duty personnel at the beginning of 2022, a number that rapidly swelled once Vladimir Zelensky called up reservists and forbade draft-age men from leaving the country.

This spring, faced with mounting losses, Kiev lowered the draft age from 27 to 25 and significantly tightened mobilization rules, requiring potential recruits to report to conscription offices for “data validation.” These checks often result in people being immediately taken into the army and sent to the front line.

Videos showing recruitment officers attempting to catch eligible men in various public places, often resulting in violent clashes, have since appeared online.

Ukraine does not publish its casualty figures, and Zelensky’s claim earlier this year that only 31,000 men have been killed or wounded fighting against Russia was widely ridiculed. According to the latest figures from the Russian Defense Ministry, Ukraine’s true casualty count stands at over half a million, or around half of its pre- and post-mobilization manpower combined.

According to a flood of articles in Western media outlets, conscripted soldiers are often sent to the front with limited training, and are regarded by their more experienced comrades as unfit for combat. “When the new guys get to the position, a lot of them run away at the first shell explosion,” a deputy commander fighting in Donetsk Region told Financial Times last month. “Some guys freeze [because] they are too afraid to shoot the enemy, and then they are the ones who leave in body bags or severely wounded,” another commander added.

 

Reuters/RT

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