WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

F-16 jets no silver bullet for Ukraine in war with Russia

Ukraine has received a first batch of U.S.-built F-16 fighter jets to help it fight Russian invasion forces, Lithuania's foreign minister and a U.S. official have said.

The long-awaited arrival is a milestone for Ukraine, which has not publicly commented on it for now. The lengthy process to procure the U.S.-designed aircraft and train Ukrainian pilots to fly them has frustrated Kyiv.

Russia has had time to prepare defences to try to nullify the F-16s' impact, and Ukraine has had to survive with a depleted air force that is a fraction of the size and sophistication of its enemy's.

Here are some facts about how the F-16s may help Ukraine and what obstacles still lie in the way of effective deployment.

SMALL NUMBERS

The number of delivered F-16s appears to be small for now. The Times of London cited a source familiar with the matter who put the figure at just six aircraft.

That number is expected to grow, but it is far short of what military analysts say Ukraine needs more than 29 months since Russia launched its full-scale invasion.

Serhii Kuzan, chairman of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center, a non-governmental research group, said at least 60 planes would be needed for significant operations as Ukraine attempts to push Russian aviation back from its borders.

Lawmaker Oleksandra Ustinova, who heads Kyiv's parliamentary commission on arms and munitions, said that Ukraine would need nearer to 120 F-16s to boost its air capability significantly.

While the pilots gain experience in Ukrainian skies and the military builds out its air infrastructure, the initial deliveries could at least help Ukraine strengthen its air shield, some experts say.

"It will provide some air defence and depth capacity, potentially also help intercepting Shaheds (Iranian-built drones) and cruise missiles, although it is a very expensive way of doing that, munitions-wise," said Justin Bronk, senior research fellow for air power and technology at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).

Valeriy Romanenko, an aviation expert, said the jets would likely help Ukraine better launch air-to-surface missiles, which it already possesses. Much, he said, would also hinge on what new missiles Ukraine is given with the warplanes.

"If we receive the 95-km range (missiles), F-16s will only engage in air defence tasks and chase Russian attack aircraft or helicopters in the south," he said.

Receiving missiles with 180-km range would allow them to attack Russian warplanes armed with guided bombs and help significantly reduce Russia's offensive opportunities.

Ukraine's military has worked hard to reduce the threat to the arriving F-16s in recent months by attacking Russian air defences, according to Kuzan.

"The formation of the battlefield, especially in the south, is already taking place. Ukraine has the capabilities to systematically strike Russia's foremost air defence complexes."

PILOTS AND MAINTENANCE

Training will be crucial.

"You can have lots of fast jets but if they don't have effective weapons, and air crew able to employ them with effective tactics, then they will just be shot down in large numbers," said Bronk.

The timeline for the training of Ukrainian pilots on F-16s has dominated discussions about deliveries and pledges of more than 70 jets.

By the end of 2024, Ukraine expects to have at least 20 pilots ready to fly F-16s, Ustinova said.

"It is difficult to solicit more planes when you don't have people to pilot them," she said, adding that, at first, Ukraine will have more F-16s than qualified pilots.

"Waiting in line for 10 years before our pilots are trained is not OK."

The Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson declined to comment.

U.S. officials have directed questions on training to Ukraine and noted that pilots can also be trained in Europe. However, Bronk said NATO's capacity was already stretched.

He added that aircraft maintenance is an even more pressing challenge than pilot training.

He said most repairs and maintenance would need to happen inside Ukraine, and that Kyiv would probably have to rely on foreign contractors who know the aircraft.

AIR BASES UNDER THREAT

Russia has intensified its attacks on infrastructure that could be used for the maintenance and deployment of F-16s, according to some experts.

"Russia is striking all airfields, potential F-16 bases, every day, including attempts to damage airstrips and infrastructure. These strikes have not paused for the last two months, at least," Kuzan said.

The targets will become all the more valuable when the aircraft, pilots and maintenance teams arrive. This is likely to force Ukraine to install missile defences to protect them, even though it is short of both air defence systems and ammunition.

"We have to accept the fact that the airfields will be well-protected when civilian objects could be under attack," Kuzan said, adding that each base would need at least two Patriot and two NASAMS batteries to secure it.

"As soon as we (build up our flight capabilities), we will push their planes back and the terror will stop. But these couple of months will be truly difficult."

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Zelensky says most of world wants him to talk to Russia

The majority of the world believes that diplomatic settlement of the Ukraine conflict is only possible with Russia’s participation in negotiations, and wants to see Moscow take part in a planned second international peace summit scheduled for November, Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky has told French media.  

Russia was not invited to the first peace summit, hosted by Switzerland in June; according to Zelensky, it was deliberately excluded from the gathering. Now Moscow should take a seat at the table, the Ukrainian leader said in an interview published on Wednesday.  

“The majority of the world today says that Russia must be represented at the second summit, otherwise we will not achieve meaningful results,” he said, adding “since the whole world wants them to be at the table, we cannot be against it.” The first conference was snubbed by several countries, including China, which demanded talks that would allow both sides of the conflict to participate.  

Moscow has repeatedly said it is open to negotiations with Kiev, but there are issues that must first be addressed for any meaningful conversation to begin, including Zelensky’s legitimacy as head of state. His term ended in May and elections were not held due to martial law. According to Zelensky, by November Kiev intends to prepare a plan based on the results of the first summit that will include “territorial integrity, sovereignty and so on.”  

Asked whether Ukraine’s return to the borders of 1991 would be a mandatory precondition for peace talks with Russia, Zelensky replied that it is desirable but not obligatory.  

Last month, the Ukrainian leader signaled that he wanted to end the conflict “as soon as possible,” and was now ready to talk with Russia regardless of who is in charge of the country.

In 2022, Zelensky barred his country from any talks with the current leadership in Moscow after four former Ukrainian regions voted overwhelmingly to join Russia in referendums which were summarily dismissed by Kiev and its Western backers.  

The first summit mainly focused on Kiev’s ‘peace formula’, demanding that Russia withdraw its troops from all territory claimed by Ukraine. Moscow has dismissed the plan, calling it “detached from reality.”

Last week, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that signals sent by Kiev about Ukraine’s willingness to resume peace talks with Moscow are not credible.     

Russian President Vladimir Putin voiced his own peace proposal in June, saying he was ready to start talks once Kiev commits to neutral status and cedes its claims to all six former Ukrainian regions that chose to join Russia in 2014 and 2022. His overture was rejected by Zelensky as an “ultimatum.”

Reuters/RT