Hamas political leader Haniyeh’s assassination deepens fears of an all-out war in the Middle East

Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh has been killed in the Iranian capital Tehran, according to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps and Hamas on Wednesday, a major escalation that deepens fears of an all-out war in the Middle East.

Haniyeh is the second leader of an Iran-backed militant group reported to have been assassinated in recent days. His death represents a significant blow to Hamas, eliminating its most public figure who headed up the group’s political operations while living overseas.

In a statement, Hamas accused Israel of targeting Haniyeh and his bodyguard in a “strike” on where he was staying in Tehran, following his participation in Tuesday’s inauguration of the new Iranian president.

Israel’s military said it does not respond to reports in foreign media, though senior officials have previously vowed to eliminate Hamas and its leadership in response to the group’s October 7 attack on Israel. It later said it was “conducting a situational assessment.”

In contrast, Israel did confirm it carried out a strike in Beirut, Lebanon, on Tuesday that killed Hezbollah’s most senior military commander, who it blamed for a deadly attack in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. The assassination of Fu’ad Shukr was the most serious Israeli escalation since confrontations between Hezbollah and Israel began on October 8.

It is not clear precisely when Haniyeh, a key interlocutor with Egyptian and Qatari mediators on the ongoing hostage and ceasefire talks in Gaza, was killed. The new Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian was sworn in on Tuesday and Hamas released pictures the same day of Haniyeh meeting Iranian officials in Tehran.

State run media IRNA said the strike happened at around 2 a.m. local time involving an “airborne guided projectile.” State-affiliated Fars said he was staying in one of the special residences for veterans in north Tehran.

The killing comes at an especially fraught time for the Middle East, with escalating confrontations between Israel and Hezbollah threatening to expand into a wider regional warand as Hamas continues to battle Israel’s military in Gaza amid an unfolding and catastrophic humanitarian crisis.

Musa Abu Marzouk, a member of Hamas’ Political Bureau, said Haniyeh’s death would “not pass in vain,” while senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri called it a “grave escalation.”

Impact on hostage talks?

The White House said it has seen the reports of Haniyeh’s death but declined to immediately comment further, according to a spokesperson. While traveling in the Philippines, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said he does not think war in the Middle East is inevitable, but if Israel were to be attacked the US would help defend it.

Haniyeh would be the second Hamas senior leader to be killed since the beginning of Israel’s war in Gaza. In January, the group said its deputy head of the political bureau Saleh Al Arouri was killed in an Israeli airstrike in the Lebanese capital Beirut. Arouri was considered one of the founding members of the Hamas’s military wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades.

However, the group has been able to weather the death of other key leaders before, including slaying of its co-founders Sheikh Ahmed Yassin and Abdel Aziz Rantisi who were killed weeks apart in 2004.

CNN Political and Foreign Policy Analyst Barak Ravid said the Israeli government sees Haniyeh as one of those responsible for Hamas’ October 7 attacks and while he is not militarily significant, his death “will have significant influence” on the ongoing hostage and ceasefire negotiations.

“This assassination is, in a way, just a matter of when, not a matter of if,” Ravid said.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, an elite wing of the Iranian military, said Haniyeh’s death was under investigation and results will be announced later Wednesday, according to Iranian state media.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas condemned Haniyeh’s killing calling it “a cowardly act and a dangerous development,” according to the WAFA news agency on Wednesday.

“His Excellency called on the masses and forces of our people to unite, be patient and steadfast in the face of the Israeli occupation,” WAFA reported.

Deaths of two Iran-backed leaders

The reported deaths of Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah’s Shukr in Beirut - two leaders of different Iran-backed militant groups - in just a few days are significant in both their timing and location.

Brigadier General (Res.) Assaf Orion, senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies said the two reported deaths “increase the likelihood of an axis response, adding Iran and other proxy attacks to the menu.”

Iran has spent years investing in regional proxy groups, informally known as the “Axis of Resistance” — an anti-Israel and anti-Western alliance — supplying them with money, weapons, and training as Tehran has sought to broaden its influence across the Middle East.

Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza has brought that longstanding shadow war with Iran out into the open – and inflamed opinion globally.

Though Israel has not commented on Heniyah’s death, it has vowed to eliminate Hamas leadership and has a history of carrying out assassinations in Iran as well as against Iranian targets.

In April, Iran accused Israel of bombing its embassy complex in Syria killing at least seven officials including Mohammed Reza Zahedi, a top commander in Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), and senior commander Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi. In response, Iran launched an unprecedented large-scale drone and missile attack at Israel.

Earlier this month, Israel targeted Hamas’ military chief Mohammed Deif in a strike on a designated humanitarian zone in southern Gaza which killed at least 90 Palestinians. An elusive and powerful figure, Deif is understood to be one of the masterminds behind the October 7 attacks though it remains unclear whether he is dead.

Who is Ismail Haniyeh?

Haniyeh, 62, was born in a refugee camp near Gaza City, and joined Hamas in the late 1980s during the First Intifada, or uprising.

As Hamas grew in power, Haniyeh rose through the ranks – being appointed part of a secret “collective leadership” in 2004. By 2017 he had become chief of the group – and was named a “specially designated global terrorist” by the United States soon after.

Over the years, he has participated in peace talks with former US President Jimmy Carter, and met with other world leaders including the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, and Chinese diplomat Wang Kejian earlier this year.

In April, Israeli airstrikes killed three of Haniyeh’s sons and four of his grandchildren, according to Hamas.

At the time, Haniyeh – who was based in Qatar – insisted their deaths would not affect ongoing ceasefire and hostage talks.

“Whoever thinks that by targeting my kids during the negotiation talks and before a deal is agreed upon that it will force Hamas to back down on its demands, is delusional,” he said.

CNN