WESTERN PERSPECTIVE
Ukraine's defences under strain as war enters its third year
Ukraine marks the second anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion on Saturday looking more vulnerable than at any time since the early days of Europe's most deadly conflict since World War Two.
The former Soviet republic's 40 million people defied expectations - and the Kremlin's best-laid plans - by repelling a much larger enemy and preventing outright defeat in the days and weeks after Russian tanks and soldiers rolled towards Kyiv.
But as the war enters its third year, international aid and military supplies have slowed, impacting the battlefield where Kyiv's summer counteroffensive floundered and Moscow is grinding out territorial gains.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy still has plenty of friends. On Saturday he welcomes Western leaders to discuss security guarantees, sanctions against Russia and other pressing issues.
U.S. President Joe Biden remains a staunch ally, although $61 billion in aid is being held up by political bickering in Washington.
Looking to the end of 2024, U.S. elections could bring a change in president and in policy towards Ukraine and its war with Russia, clouding the outlook for the coming years.
During a trip to the United States in November, Zelenskiy invited Republican presidential hopeful Donald Trump - a vocal critic of U.S. support for Kyiv - to Ukraine to see for himself the damage wrought by Russia's war.
Zelenskiy also told U.S. politicians that Russia, led by President Vladimir Putin, may not stop at Ukraine's borders if it emerges victorious.
Putin dismisses such claims as nonsense. He casts the war as a wider struggle with the United States, which the Kremlin elite says aims to cleave Russia apart. The West sees the invasion as an unjustified act of aggression that must be repelled.
OLD WAR AND NEW
As well as hosting foreign dignitaries, Zelenskiy will take part in a call with G7 leaders on Saturday. There will be events across Ukraine including a commemoration service for those who died in Bucha, north of Kyiv - scene of some of the worst alleged war crimes of the conflict.
Ukraine's prosecutor general said on Friday it had launched investigationsinto more than 122,000 suspected war crimes cases in the last two years. Russia denies carrying them out.
The initial shock of the invasion gradually morphed into familiarity and then fatigue, as the world watched initial Russian gains and a stunning Ukrainian counteroffensive in late 2022 slow into grinding, attritional trench warfare.
In scenes reminiscent of the battlefields of World War One, soldiers under heavy artillery fire are dying in their thousands, sometimes for a few kilometres of land.
Meanwhile, both sides have developed huge and increasingly sophisticated fleets of air, sea and land drones for surveillance and attack, an unprecedented use of unmanned vehicles that could point the way to future conflicts.
Russia, with a much bigger population to replenish the army's ranks and a larger military budget, might favour a drawn-out war, although the costs have been huge for Moscow as it seeks to navigate sanctions and a growing reliance on China.
Ukraine's position is more precarious. Villages, towns and cities have been razed, troops are exhausted, ammunition is running low and Russian missiles and drones rain down almost daily.
Earlier in February, Russia registered its biggest victory in nine months when it captured the eastern town of Avdiivka, ending months of deadly urban combat.
Yet Zelenskiy remained defiant ahead of the anniversary.
"I am convinced that victory awaits us," he told diplomats in Kyiv this week in an emotional address. "In particular, thanks to unity and your support."
Tens of thousands of troops have been killed on both sides and tens of thousands more wounded, while thousands of Ukrainian civilians have perished. Moscow says it only aims at military and strategic targets.
RISING COSTS
The scale of devastation in Ukraine is staggering.
A recent World Bank study said that rebuilding Ukraine's economy could cost nearly $500 billion. Two million housing units have been damaged or destroyed, and nearly 6 million people have fled abroad.
In addition to raising money and arms to continue the war, Zelenskiy is pushing legislation through parliament allowing Ukraine to mobilise up to half a million more troops - a target some economists say could paralyse the economy.
Russia's finances have proved resilient so far to unprecedented sanctions. While natural gas exports have slumped, shipments of oil have held up, thanks largely to Indian and Chinese buying.
Russia's GDP expanded 3.6% in 2023, although some Russia-based economists warned that this was driven by a leap in defence spending and that stagnation or recession loom.
That will not jeopardise Putin's victory in elections in March, which he is set to win by a landslide amid broad support for his performance and for the war, described by the Kremlin as a "special military operation".
In the last two years, authorities have cracked down hard on any form of dissent over the conflict. On Feb. 16, Putin's most formidable domestic opponent, Alexei Navalny, died in an Arctic penal colony where he was serving a 30-year sentence.
On Friday, Putin addressed troops fighting in Ukraine as Russia marked Defender of the Fatherland Day, hailing them as heroes battling for "truth and justice."
He laid a wreath at the tomb of the unknown soldier at the foot of the Kremlin wall to honour those who have died in battle.
RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE
Russian forces hit Patriot SAM launcher, missile reload trailer transporter
Russian missile forces have hit a launcher, ammunition and other components of the US-made Patriot surface-to-air missile (SAM) system during the special military operation in Ukraine over the past week, the Russian Defense Ministry reported.
"As a result of a group strike, the Missile Troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have hit a launcher, a truck, ammunition and a missile reload trailer transporter of the US-made Patriot surface-to-air missile system," the statement said.
Donetsk area
Russian forces have liberated Pobeda and took more advantageous positions in the Donetsk area over the past week, and 12 Ukrainian counterattacks have also been also repelled, the Russian Defense Ministry said.
"In the Donetsk area, Battlegroup South units have liberated the populated locality of Pobeda and gained more advantageous positions. Near Georgievka, Leninskoye, Bogdanovka and Novgorodskoye, 12 counterattacks carried out by assault groups of Ukraine’s 79th airborne assault, 24th and 42nd mechanized brigades have been repelled," the ministry said.
The Ukrainian armed forces have suffered losses of up to 1,195 troops and six tanks in the South Donetsk area over the past week, the Russian Defense Ministry said.
The Defense Ministry pointed out that in that area, the Battlegroup Vostok (East) units had improved their frontline positions and inflicted a defeat on units of Ukraine’s 72nd mechanized brigade as well as its 102nd, 108th, 127th, and 128th brigades of territorial defense near Vodyanoye, Novodonetskoye, Staromayorskoye, and Urozhaynoye of the Donetsk People’s Republic, as well as Chervonoye, Priyutnoye, and Lugovskoye of the Zaporozhye Region.
"Four attacks conducted by assault groups of the Ukrainian armed forces’ 58th motorized infantry brigade near Novodonetskoye and Shevchenko in the Donetsk People’s Republic were repelled. The Ukrainian military suffered losses of up to 1,195 troops, six tanks, six armored fighting vehicles, 23 motor vehicles and 16 field artillery guns," the ministry added.
The Russian Armed Forces carried out 37 group strikes over the past week, using precision weapons, to hit Ukrainian military structures, military industrial enterprises, ammunition and fuel depots, airfield infrastructure, and deployment sites of Ukrainian troops and foreign mercenaries, as a result, all the designated targets were hit, the Russian Defense Ministry said.
"Between February 17 and 23, 2024, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation conducted 37 group strikes using precision weapons, including air-to-surface long-range ones, as well as unmanned aerial vehicles, to hit facilities of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex, infrastructure of military airfields, arsenals, and fuel storage bases," the ministry said.
"Moreover, the deployment areas of the Ukrainian armed forces’ units, nationalists’ formations and foreign mercenaries have been struck. All the assigned targets have been engaged," the ministry added.
Russian aircraft and air defenses have shot down Ukraine’s MiG-29 fighter jet and Mi-8 helicopter over the past week, the Russian Defense Ministry reported.
"Over the past week, aircraft and air defense systems brought down a MiG-29 fighter jet and a Mi-8 helicopter of the Ukrainian air force," the statement said.
The Ukrainian armed forces have suffered losses of 12 tanks, 31 armored fighting vehicles and more than 2,560 troops in the Donetsk area over the past week, the Russian Defense Minsitry said.
"Units of Battlegroup South have hit the Ukrainian armed forces’ manpower and equipment near Belogorovka, Grigorovka, Krasnoye, Kleshcheevka, Kurdyumovka, Razdolovka, Novomikhailovka, Nevelskoye and Krasnogorovka in the Donetsk People’s Republic. The enemy has lost more than 2,560 service members, 12 tanks, 31 armored fighting vehicles, 58 vehicles, 13 field artillery guns and a Grad MLRS combat vehicle," the ministry said.
Kherson area
The Ukrainian armed forces have suffered losses of more than 460 troops, five tanks, six boats and 14 field artillery guns in the Kherson area over the past week, the Russian Defense Ministry said.
"The enemy has suffered losses of over 460 service members, five tanks, six armored fighting vehicles, 33 motor vehicles, six boats and 14 field artillery pieces," the ministry said, adding that three attacks of Ukraine’s 82nd mountain assault brigade were also repelled outside Rabotino in the Zaporozhye Region.
According to the ministry, in the Kherson area, Russian troops have taken control of Krynki, gained more advantageous positions and conducted strikes on the manpower and equipment of the 28th, 65th and 118th mechanized brigades; the 35th and 37th marine brigades; the 121st and 126th territorial defense brigades outside Malaya Tokmachka, Verbovoye, Orekhov, Shcherbaky, Lugovoye in the Zaporozhye Region as well as near Zolotaya Balka, Mikhailovka, Ivanovka, Tyaginka and Zmeyevka in the Kherson Region.
Over the past week, Russian aircraft and air defense systems have shot down seven Storm Shadow missiles, a Patriot missile, four S-200 missiles and 652 drones belonging to the Ukrainian armed forces, the Russian Defense Ministry said.
"Over the past week, aircraft and air defenses have brought down seven Storm Shadow cruise missiles, a Patriot surface-to-air guided missile, four S-200 surface-to-air guided missiles modified to hit ground targets, three HARM anti-radar missiles, six JDAM precision-guided bombs and 42 rockets of HIMARS multiple rocket launchers, as well as 652 unmanned aerial vehicles," the ministry said.
Kupyansk area
Units of Battlegroup Zapad (West) have improved their frontline positions in the Kupyansk area, where 25 Ukrainian counterattacks were also repelled, the Russian Defense Ministry reported.
"Over the past week, the Battlegroup Zapad (West) units took active action and improved their position along the frontline in the Kupyansk area, and also repelled 25 enemy counterattacks near Sinkovka in the Kharkov Region and Terny in the Donetsk People’s Republic. In addition, the military personnel and equipment of the Ukrainian armed forces’ 30th and 66th mechanized, 10th mountain assault, and 25th airborne brigades, as well as 125th brigade of territorial defense were hit near Chugunovka, Petropavlovka, Kislovka in the Kharkov Region; Yampolovka and Torskoye in the Donetsk People’s Republic; and Stelmakhovka and Chervonaya Dibrova in the Lugansk People’s Republic," the ministry said.
According to the Defense Ministry, the enemy losses were over 390 troops, four tanks, 13 armored fighting vehicles, 21 vehicles and 25 field artillery pieces altogether.
Avdeyevka area
Russian forces continue to advance westward in the Avdeyevka area, repelling 39 Ukrainian counterattacks over the past week, the Russian Defense Ministry said adding that the enemy lost more than 2,900 troops.
"In the Avdeyevka area, units of Battlegroup Tsentr (Center) liberated the town of Avdeyevka in the Donetsk People’s Republic and continued to advance westwards," the ministry said. "A total of 39 counterattacks launched by assault detachments of the Ukrainian armed forces’ 71st <…> brigade; 47th and 53rd mechanized, 59th motorized infantry and 3rd assault brigades were repelled near Berdychy, Lastochkino and Pervomaiskoye in the Donetsk People’s Republic. Over the past week, the enemy suffered over 2,900 casualties in this area," the ministry said.
The battlegroup’s units, supported by aircraft and artillery, inflicted losses on amassments of Ukrainian military personnel and equipment near Orlovka, Solovyevo, Semyonovka, Tonenkoye, Yevgenovka and Mirolyubovka in the Donetsk People’s Republic. The Ukrainian military lost four tanks, 37 armored fighting vehicles, 90 vehicles, eight field artillery pieces and a Grad MLRS combat vehicle.
Reuters/Tass
