WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Leaked US strategy on Ukraine sees corruption as the real threat

Biden administration officials are far more worried about corruption in Ukraine than they publicly admit, a confidential U.S. strategy document obtained by POLITICO suggests.

The “sensitive but unclassified” version of the long-term U.S. plan lays out numerous steps Washington is taking to help Kyiv root out malfeasance and otherwise reform an array of Ukrainian sectors. It stresses that corruption could cause Western allies to abandon Ukraine’s fight against Russia’s invasion, and that Kyiv cannot put off the anti-graft effort.

“Perceptions of high-level corruption” the confidential version of the document warns, could “undermine the Ukrainian public’s and foreign leaders’ confidence in the war-time government.”

That’s starker than the analysis available in the little-noticed public version of the 22-page document, which the State Department appears to have posted on its website with no fanfare about a month ago.

The confidential version of the “Integrated Country Strategy” is about three times as long and contains many more details about U.S. objectives in Ukraine, from privatizing its banks to helping more schools teach English to encouraging its military to adopt NATO protocols. Many goals are designed to reduce the corruption that bedevils the country.

The quiet release of the strategy, and the fact that the toughest language was left in the confidential version, underscores the messaging challenge facing the Biden team.

The administration wants to press Ukraine to cut graft, not least because U.S. dollars are at stake. But being too loud about the issue could embolden opponents of U.S. aid to Ukraine, many of them Republican lawmakers who are trying to block such assistance. Any perception of weakened American support for Kyiv also could cause more European countries to think twice about their role.

When it comes to the Ukrainians, “there are some honest conversations happening behind the scenes,” a U.S. official familiar with Ukraine policy said. Like others, the person was granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue.

Ukrainian graft has long been a concern of U.S. officials all the way up to President Joe Biden. But the topic was deemphasized in the wake of Russia’s February 2022 full-scale invasion, which Biden has called a real-life battle of democracy against autocracy.

For months, Biden aides stuck to brief mentions of corruption. They wanted to show solidarity with Kyiv and avoid giving fuel to a small number of Republican lawmakers critical of U.S. military and economic aid for Ukraine.

More than a year into the full-scale war, U.S. officials are pressing the matter more in public and private. National security adviser Jake Sullivan, for instance, met in early September with a delegation from Ukrainian anti-corruption institutions.

A second U.S. official familiar with the discussions confirmed to POLITICO reports that the Biden administration is talking to Ukrainian leaders about potentially conditioning future economic aid on “reforms to tackle corruption and make Ukraine a more attractive place for private investment.”

Such conditions are not being considered for military aid, the official said.

A spokesperson for Ukraine’s foreign ministry did not respond to requests for comment. But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has fired several top defense officials in a recent crackdown on alleged graft — a message to the United States and Europe that he’s listening.

The Integrated Country Strategy is a State Department product that draws on contributions from other parts of the U.S. government, including the Defense Department. It includes lists of goals, timelines for achieving them and milestones that U.S. officials would like to see hit. (The State Department produces such strategies for many countries once every few years.)

A State Department official, speaking on behalf of the department, would not say if Washington had shared the longer version of the strategy with the Ukrainian government or whether a classified version exists.

William Taylor, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, said many ordinary Ukrainians will likely welcome the strategy because they, too, are tired of the endemic corruption in their country.

It’s all fine “as long as it doesn’t get in the way of the assistance we provide them to win the war,” he said.

The document says that fulfilling American objectives for Ukraine includes making good on U.S. promises of equipment and training to help Ukraine’s armed forces fend off the Kremlin’s attacks.

The confidential version also describes U.S. goals such as helping reform elements of Ukraine’s national security apparatus to allow for “decentralized, risk-tolerant approach to execution of tasks” and reduce “opportunities for corruption.”

Although the NATO military alliance is not close to allowing Ukraine to join, the American strategy often cites a desire to make Ukraine’s military adopt NATO standards.

One hoped-for milestone listed in the confidential version is that Ukraine’s Defense Ministry “establishes a professionalized junior officer and non-commissioned officer corps with NATO standard doctrine and principles.”

Even the format and content of Ukrainian defense documents should “reflect NATO terminology,” a confidential section of the strategy says.

One target includes creating a “national level resistance plan.” That could allude to ordinary Ukrainians fighting back if Russia gains more territory. (The State Department official would not clarify that point.)

The U.S. also wants to see Ukraine produce its own military equipment by establishing a “domestic defense industry capable of supporting core needs” as well as an environment that boosts defense information technology start-ups, according to one of the confidential sections.

U.S. officials appear especially concerned about the role of an elite few in Ukraine’s economy.

“Deoligarchization, particularly of the energy and mining sectors, is a core tenet to building back a better Ukraine,” the public part of the strategy declares. One indicator of success, the confidential version states, is that the Ukrainian government “embraces meaningful reforms decentralizing control of the energy sector.”

The United States appears eager to help Ukrainian institutions build their oversight capacities. The goals listed include everything from helping local governments assess corruption risks to reforms in human resources offices.

As one example, the strategy says the U.S. is helping the Accounting Chamber of Ukraine enhance its auditing and related work in part so it can track direct budget support from the United States.

The strategy describes ways in which the United States is helping Ukraine’s health sector, cyber defenses and organizations that battle disinformation. It calls for supporting Ukrainian anti-monopoly efforts and initiatives to spur increased tax revenue for the country’s coffers.

The confidential portion calls for Ukraine’s financial systems to “increase lending to encourage business expansion” and a reduction in the state’s role in the banking sector.

One envisioned milestone for that section is that “Alfa Bank is transparently returned to private ownership.” That appears to be a reference to an institution now known as Sense Bank, which was previously Russian-owned but nationalized by Ukraine.

The U.S. strategy appears intent on ensuring that Ukraine not only retains its orientation toward the West but that it develops special ties with America.

One way Washington believes that will happen is through the English language. The strategy indicates the United States is offering technical and other aid to Ukraine’s education ministry to improve the teaching of English and that it believes offering English lessons can help reintegrate Ukrainians freed from Russian occupation.

U.S. officials also are helping Ukraine build its capacity to prosecute war crimes in its own judicial system. The desired milestones include the selection of more than 2,000 new judges and clearing up a backlog of over 9,000 judicial misconduct complaints.

The strategy also calls for rebuilding the U.S. diplomatic presence in Ukraine, expanding beyond Kyiv to cities such as Lviv, Odesa, Kharkiv and Dnipro.

Due to earlier staff drawdowns spurred by the full-scale Russian invasion, “the embassy remains in crisis mode,” one of the public sections states. (The State Department official would not discuss the current Embassy staffing numbers.)

As they have in past communications reported on by POLITICO, U.S. officials note inventive ways in which the United States is providing oversight of American aid to Ukraine despite facing limitations due to the war. Those efforts have included using an app called SEALR to help track the aid.

** Ukraine confident of broad support as EU ministers convene in Kyiv

EU foreign ministers expressed support for Ukraine during a meeting in Kyiv on Monday, their first in a non-member country, after a pro-Russian candidate won an election in Slovakia and the U.S. Congress left Ukraine war aid out of its spending bill.

Kyiv brushed off concerns that support for its war effort was fading on both sides of the Atlantic, especially in the United States where Congress excluded aid to Ukraine from an emergency bill to prevent a government shutdown.

"We don't feel that the U.S. support has been shattered ... because the United States understands that what is at stake in Ukraine is much bigger than just Ukraine," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told reporters as he greeted the EU foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell.

The omission of Ukraine from the U.S. spending bill sent pro-Kyiv officials scrambling to find the best way to secure approval for further assistance on top of the $113 billion in security, economic and humanitarian aid the U.S. has provided since Russia invaded in February 2022.

Leaders in the Senate, narrowly controlled by President Joe Biden's fellow Democrats, promised to take up legislation in the coming weeks on continued support. But in the Republican-led House of Representatives, Speaker Kevin McCarthy said he wanted more information from the Biden administration.

White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre urged Congress to act quickly.

As for the election victory of pro-Russian Slovak former Prime Minister Robert Fico, Kuleba said a new leader would still have to form a coalition and it was "too early to judge" the impact on politics there.

Monday's meeting in Kyiv was touted by Borrell as an historic first for the EU but it comes at an awkward time for the Western countries backing Kyiv.

With summer drawing to a close, Ukraine's counteroffensive has failed to produce the victories that Kyiv's allies had hoped to see before mud clogs the treads of donated tanks.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, quoted by his website, said he was sure "Ukraine and the entire free world are capable of winning this confrontation. But our victory depends directly on our cooperation with you."

Borrell told a news briefing with Kuleba the EU remained united in its support for Ukraine. He had proposed an EU spending package for Kyiv of up to 5 billion euros ($5.25 billion) for 2024 which he hoped to have agreed by then.

Kuleba said it would help Ukraine and the EU to have clarity on the judicial aspects of transferring Russian assets frozen in the West to help fund Ukraine's reconstruction.

PREPARING FOR WINTER

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock sought help to prepare Ukraine for winter, including air defence and energy supplies, after Russia bombed energy installations last year.

"Last winter, we saw the brutal way in which the Russian president is waging this war," Baerbock said. "We must prevent this together with everything we have, as far as possible."

Moscow touted the congressional vote in the United States as a sign of increasing division in the West, although the Kremlin said it expected Washington to continue its support for Kyiv.

The omission of aid for Ukraine was "temporary", Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said.

"But we have repeatedly said before that according to our forecasts fatigue from this conflict, fatigue from the completely absurd sponsorship of the Kyiv regime, will grow in various countries, including the United States," he said.

Support for Kyiv has been mixed in the "Global South", prompting Kuleba to make visits to different countries, particularly in Africa.

Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador criticised as "irrational" U.S. military aid to Ukraine and urged Washington to devote more resources to helping Latin American countries.

"...How much have they destined for the Ukraine war? 30 to 50 billion dollars for the war," he told reporters. "Which is the most irrational thing you can have. And damaging."

In Western countries, elections are looming, above all next year in the United States where former President Donald Trump is leading the Republican field in his bid to return to the White House. Several right-wing Trump supporters in Congress have called for a halt to Ukraine aid.

Although most Republican lawmakers still support Kyiv, House speaker McCarthy was forced to rely on Democrats to pass the measure to keep the government open and might need them again to support any bill to fund Ukraine. Right wingers have threatened to try to remove him.

Kuleba said Ukraine had "a very in-depth discussion with both parts of the Congress - Republicans and Democrats", and expected aid to continue.

In Europe, pro-Russian former prime minister Fico won the most votes in the Slovak election and will get a chance to form a government. His campaign had called for "not a single round" of ammunition from Slovakia's reserves to be sent to Ukraine.

"We are not changing that we are prepared to help Ukraine in a humanitarian way," Fico told a news conference. "We are prepared to help with the reconstruction of the state but you know our opinion on arming Ukraine."

Fico was given two weeks to form a government. To do so, he would have to establish a coalition with at least one other party that does not publicly share his position on Ukraine.

Slovakia, a NATO state bordering Ukraine, has taken in refugees. Its outgoing government, has provided a major supply of weapons, notably being among the first to send fighter jets.

($1 = 0.9530 euros)

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Russian army repels 8 Ukrainian attacks in DPR, eliminates over 300 militants — top brass

Russia’s Battlegroup South has repelled eight Ukrainian attacks in the Artyomovsk and Avdeyevka areas, with the enemy’s losses exceeding 300 servicemen, battlegroup Spokesman Georgy Minesashvili told TASS.

"Battlegroup South units have repelled eight attacks by Ukrainian assault groups in the Artyomovsk and Avdeyevka areas. The enemy’s losses amounted to over 300 servicemen, one Krab self-propelled artillery system, a D-20 weapon, two tanks, a mechanized infantry fighting vehicle, two Strela-10 anti-aircraft missile launchers, a signals intelligence station, as well as seven vehicles and eight drones," he said.

Missile forces and artillery attacked three Ukrainian ammunition depots in Krasnogorovka, Belogorovka and Kramatorsk, as well as troops of the 24th mechanized brigade’s unit near Dzerzhinsk, spokesman added.

Battlegroup South with the help of aviation eliminated a hangar with Ukrainian military equipment in the Donetsk area, Minesashvili said.

"Operational-tactical aviation of the group eliminated a hangar with military equipment, army aviation destructed a temporary deployment site of the 110th mechanized and the 79th air assault brigades of the Ukrainian army in Novomikhailovka and Avdeyevka," he said, adding that the teams of Solntsepyok heavy flamethrower systems hit the stronghold of the 54th mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian army near the settlement of Verkhnekamenskoye in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR).

** US-made armor pierced by regular AK round – Rostec

A new video, released by the Russian defense conglomerate Rostec, has cast doubt over the quality of the military assistance that the US is sending to Ukraine. It shows a bulletproof vest, reportedly taken as a trophy from the battlefield, which showed an “unexpectedly” poor performance during a comparative test.

The TV-show-style footage published on Telegram on Monday was touted as a trial of three ballistic vests that a civilian could obtain with the goal of getting maximum protection while mostly retaining mobility.

The three items put through test shootings were a Chinese product, newly-developed Russian armor, and the American equipment – all more or less corresponding to a Russian Br5 class of protection.

The American vest’s performance took the testers by surprise in a negative way, said journalist and defense industry expert Aleksey Yegorov, who served as the host of the shoot. Unlike the other two items, its chest plate got pierced by a 7.62x39mm shot from a Kalashnikov AK-103 from 15 meters (49 feet) away.

During a later test with a fresh plate, the American vest stopped a 7.62x51mm round. The munition fired was a .308 Winchester – the easy-to-buy hunting round with cartridge dimensions virtually identical to the NATO one. Unlike in the Russian rounds, its bullet did not have a steel core, Rostec explained.

The next two shots were 5.45x39mm rounds fired from a Kalashnikov assault rifle, and one of them pierced the vest too. The host explained that the bullet hit too close to where the .308 bullet landed, with the first impact weakening the plate.

Politico/Reuters/Tass/RT