WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine faces twin challenges of fighting Russia and shifting political sands in the US

After almost 30 months of war with Russia, Ukraine’s difficulties on the battlefield are mounting even as its vital support from the United States is increasingly at the mercy of changing political winds.

A six-month delay in military assistance from the U.S., the biggest single contributor to Ukraine, opened the door for the Kremlin’s forces to push on the front line. Ukrainian troops are now fighting to check the slow but gradual gains by Russia’s bigger and better-equipped army.

“The next two or three months are going to be probably the hardest this year for Ukraine,” military analyst Michael Kofman of the Carnegie Endowment said in a recent podcast.

Lurking in the background is another nagging worry for Ukraine: how long will Western political and military support critical for its fight last?

On Monday, former President Donald Trump chose Sen. JD Vance of Ohio as his running mate for the Republican ticket in November’s U.S. election, and Vance wants the United States to attend to its own problems — not necessarily a war thousands of miles away on a different continent, even though he has said Putin was wrong to invade.

That view dovetails with Trump’s own stance. Trump has claimed that if elected, he would end the conflict before Inauguration Day in January. He has declined to say how.

Meanwhile, Hungary’s pro-Russian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán — whose country holds the European Union’s rotating presidency — recently infuriated other EU leaders by holding rogue meetings with Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Europe’s biggest war since World War II has already cost tens of thousands of lives on both sides, including thousands of civilians. There is no sign of it ending any time soon.

And Putin wants to draw out the war in the hope of sapping Western willingness to send billions more dollars to Kyiv.

Here’s a look at Ukraine’s major challenges:

The battlefield

Russia holds 18% of Ukrainian territory, after defensive forces pushed it out of half of the area it seized following its full-scale invasion in February 2022, the Council on Foreign Relations, a U.S. think tank, said in May. In 2014, Russia seized Ukraine’s Crimea.

Russia hasn’t accomplished a major battlefield victory since taking the eastern stronghold of Avdiivka in February. But its forces are now pushing in border regions: Kharkiv in northeast Ukraine, Donetsk in the east and Zaporizhzhia in the south.

To buy time, Ukraine has employed an elastic defense strategy by ceding some territory to wear down Russian troops until Western supplies reach brigades. But, analysts warn, Russia will undoubtedly win a lengthy war of attrition, unless Ukraine can strike using an element of surprise.

Russia claimed Sunday its forces had taken control of the Donetsk village of Urozhaine, but Ukrainian officials said there was still fighting there. Moscow’s army is aiming to take the nearby strategic hilltop city of Chasiv Yar, which could allow it to drive deeper into Donetsk.

Ukraine’s forces are largely holding back the Russian push around northeastern Kharkiv city, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington think tank. The Kremlin’s troops have been trying to get within artillery range of the city and create a buffer zone in the region to prevent Ukrainian cross-border attacks.

Meanwhile, Russia is firing missiles into rear areas, hitting civilian infrastructure. Last week it conducted a massive aerial attack that killed 31 civilians and struck Ukraine’s largest children’s hospital in Kyiv.

The power grid

Crippling Ukraine’s electricity supply has been a key goal of Russia’s relentless long-range missile and drone attacks.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says the bombardment has destroyed 80% of Ukraine’s thermal power and one-third of its hydroelectric power.

A hard winter likely lies ahead for Ukraine, analysts say.

Ukraine is such a large country that massive air defenses would be needed to protect it all. The country needs 25 Patriot air defense systems to fully defend its airspace, Zelenskyy said Monday.

Ammunition

New deliveries of ammunition to Ukraine are trickling to units along the line of contact, shrinking Kyiv’s heavy disadvantage in artillery shells and allowing it to start stabilizing the front line.

But it will take time for Kyiv’s army to fully replenish its depleted stocks. Ukraine won’t be able to assemble a counteroffensive until late this year at the earliest, military analysts estimate.

Russia, meanwhile, is spending record amounts of money on defense to finance its grinding war of attrition.

Fortifications

Russia’s go-to tactic is to smash towns and villages to pieces, rendering them unlivable and denying Ukrainians defensive cover. Powerful glide bombs flatten buildings. Then the Russian infantry moves in.

Ukraine was late to build defensive lines but its fortifications have improved in recent months, according to analyst reports.

The Russian army has made creeping progress at eastern and southern points along the roughly 1,000-kilometer (600-mile) front line but has not recently made any significant breakthrough and its advances have been costly, Ukrainian officials say.

Expanded military conscription

Ukraine in April adopted an expanded military conscription law that aimed to replenish its depleted and exhausted forces.

Zelenskyy said Monday the drive is going well, though the country doesn’t have enough training grounds for the new troops. Also, 14 brigades haven’t yet received their promised Western weapons.

Weaponry

NATO countries have taken steps this month to ensure that Ukraine keeps receiving long-term security aid and military training.

Alliance leaders attending a summit in Washington last week signed a dealto send more Stinger missiles, a portable surface-to-air defense system.

Ukraine is also preparing to receive the first F-16 warplanes donated by European countries.

Even so, Zelenskyy is frustrated. He says Ukraine cannot win the war unless the U.S. scraps its limits on the use of its weapons to attack military targets on Russian soil.

 

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Russian troops wipe out Ukrainian missile/artillery armament depot over past day

Russian troops destroyed a Ukrainian missile/artillery armament depot over the past day in the special military operation in Ukraine, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported on Wednesday.

"Operational/tactical aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles, missile troops and artillery of the Russian groups of forces destroyed a missile/artillery armament depot," the ministry said in a statement.

During the last 24-hour period, Russian troops struck Ukrainian manpower and military hardware in 136 areas, it specified.

Russia’s Battlegroup North strikes three Ukrainian army brigades over past day

Russia’s Battlegroup North inflicted casualties on three Ukrainian army brigades over the past day, the ministry reported.

"Battlegroup North units inflicted damage on manpower and equipment of the Ukrainian army’s 57th motorized infantry, 107th and 113th territorial defense brigades in areas near the settlements of Volchansk, Veterinarnoye and Krugloye in the Kharkov Region. They repulsed a counterattack by a formation of the Ukrainian army’s 92nd assault brigade," the ministry said.

The Ukrainian army’s losses in that frontline area over the past 24 hours amounted to more than 170 personnel, two pickup trucks, a US-made 155mm M198 howitzer, a 152mm Akatsiya motorized artillery system, two 152mm D-20 howitzers, a Bukovel-AD electronic warfare station and two Anklav electronic warfare systems, it specified.

In addition, Russian troops destroyed a Ukrainian ammunition depot, the ministry said.

Russia’s Battlegroup West inflicts 650 casualties on Ukrainian army over past day

Russia’s Battlegroup West improved its frontline positions and inflicted roughly 650 casualties on Ukrainian troops in its area of responsibility over the past day, the ministry reported.

Russia’s Battlegroup West units "inflicted casualties on formations of the Ukrainian army’s 44th, 115th and 116th mechanized and 1st National Guard brigades in areas near the settlements of Sinkovka and Berestovoye in the Kharkov Region, Stelmakhovka and Chervonaya Dibrova in the Lugansk People’s Republic. In addition, they repulsed a counterattack by an assault group of the 110th territorial defense brigade," the ministry said.

The Ukrainian army’s losses in that frontline area over the past 24 hours amounted to 650 personnel, a US-made M113 armored personnel carrier and 12 motor vehicles. In addition, Russian troops destroyed three ammunition depots of the Ukrainian army, it specified.

In counterbattery fire, Russian troops destroyed a Croatian-made RAK-SA-12 multiple launch rocket system, a Polish-manufactured 155mm Krab self-propelled artillery gun, a US-made 155mm M777 howitzer, a 122mm D-30 howitzer and an Anklav electronic warfare station, the ministry said.

Russia’s Battlegroup South inflicts 610 casualties on Ukrainian army over past day

Russia’s Battlegroup South inflicted roughly 610 casualties on Ukrainian troops and destroyed two enemy ammunition depots in its area of responsibility over the past day, the ministry reported.

"Battlegroup South units inflicted damage in active operations on manpower and equipment of the Ukrainian army’s 72nd mechanized and 5th assault brigades in areas near the settlements of Konstantinovka and Krasnoye in the Donetsk People’s Republic. The Ukrainian army lost as many as 610 personnel, three armored combat vehicles and two motor vehicles," the ministry said.

In counterbattery fire, Russian forces destroyed a Polish-manufactured 155mm Krab self-propelled artillery system, a British-made 155mm Braveheart self-propelled artillery gun, two 122mm Gvozdika motorized artillery systems, two British-made 155mm FH70 howitzers, two 152mm D-20 howitzers, two 152mm Msta-B howitzers and two 122mm D-30 howitzers, it specified.

In addition, Russian troops destroyed two ammunition depots of the Ukrainian army, it said.

 

AP/Tass

It is another special day for our energetic and spiritual father, the Archbishop Metropolitan and Primate of the Church of Nigeria Anglican Communion Most Revd Henry Chukudum Ndukuba, as he turns another year tot 18 July 2024. From his humble beginning at Ogberuru in Orlu Local Government Area of Imo State, and through his 63 years on mother earth, he has passed through the ups and downs of this world. 

Indeed, but for the big God who is always by his side, he would have been long forgotten.  Sampler: during his early pastoral duties at Gombe, he had all his earthly possessions destroyed by a mystery fire. At another point, Boko Haram came calling. The terrorists invaded his residence with the sole aim of killing him and his beloved wife Angela. Again, God proved His awesome power and majesty as the bullets meant to terminate their lives whistled past them and they remained alive to tell the story. Not only that, God renewed his strength and he saw himself jump over a wall-the height of which could qualify him to compete at the Olympics. Yet, his ordeal was not over. He suffered a life-threatening heart disease and was almost gone but for the big God, who, again, stood by his side to save and revive him. 

Many, indeed, are the sufferings of the righteous but the good Lord sees him through them all. Unknown to Ndukuba, the Lord was preparing him for the greater assignment of leading the Church of Nigeria Anglican Communion. His passion for evangelism across the nooks and crannies of Nigeria and the world over got him heavenly approval. He is a sound Biblical Scholar, Teacher, Master Liturgist, prolific writer, Pastor and an accomplished Evangelist. He loves the Lord Jesus Christ and has a great heart for the Word of God. Today, rural evangelism is spreading like bush fire. His vision of mission fields is gaining traction not only in Nigeria; Africa, but worldwide. Looking back, our Primate will today be grateful to God as he sings  Stanza 4 of the song titled: IN CHRIST ALONE: "No guilt in life, no fear in death

This is the power of Christ in me  Life's first cry to final breath Jesus commands my destiny

No power of hell, no scheme of man Can ever pluck me from His hand

Till He returns or calls me home Here in the power of Christ I'll stand." 

Here now is an abridged version of the Life and Times of Ndukuba: Henry Chukudum Ndukuba was born on the 18th of July 1961, to Mr. and Mrs. Silas O. Ndukuba of Ogberuru in Orlu Local Government Area of Imo State. 

Both parents were Christian Missionary Society (now known as Anglican) school and church teachers in the Diocese of Orlu, (which happens to be Henry's home diocese). Young Henry attended Bishop Shanahan College, Orlu, and wrote and passed his West African School Certificate Examination, WASCE, in 1978. While in secondary school, precisely in 1977, he gave his life to Jesus Christ as a teenager. This meant a brand-new beginning for him.

He started his working life in Kano State Library, Ministry of Education, where he was between 1977 and 1980. It was while in Kano that he received the call into the gospel ministry and was subsequently sent to the Theological College of Northern Nigeria (TCNN), Bukuru, where he was between 1980 and 1984 obtained his Bachelors of Divinity (B.D) degree. He did his mandatory one-year national service in Kano State (1984-1985). He was ordained into the Holy Order diaconate in 1984, and priesthood 1985.

Ndukuba served in St Georges Anglican Church, Borupai, Kano, till he was sent to teach in St. Francis of Assisi Theological College, Wusasa, Zaria in 1985. He served in many capacities and headed the college as the acting Dean. In July 1996, he was moved back to be the Archdeacon of Kano and helped stabilize the diocese of Kano after some turbulent period. 

His zeal for the Lord and love for mission was evident. In July 1999, he was requested to return as Dean of St. Francis College, Wusasa, but by September 1999, he was elected the Bishop of Gombe. Nineteen years after, he was elected Archbishop of Jos Ecclesiastical province and presented January 12, 2018, and on 24th September 2019, he got elected by the Episcopal Synod as Primate of the Church of Nigeria Anglican Communion. Ndukuba obtained a Masters of Arts degree (M.A) in Systematic Theology from Durham University, England, in 1990, and yet another M.A in Christian Education at the Princeton Theological Seminary, New Jersey, USA, in 1996. He distinguished himself as a scholar by winning the 1996 John Havran’s Princeton prize for Christian Education. 

Henry Ndukuba is a servant of God and God’s people. He loves God and has received the grace to teach, preach and stand out as an evangelist and missioner. His Episcopacy has been a blessing to the church of God. He is the chairman of the liturgy and spirituality committee of the Church of Nigeria whose responsibility is to produce the Annual Bible study Manual, Daily Fountain Devotional, Sunday School Manual and Youth Devotional for the Church of Nigeria. His committee produced the New Book of Common Prayer and Hymnal for the Church of Nigeria. 

He also serves as the chairman of the Church of Nigeria Historical Records and Artifacts Committee, a body charged with the responsibility of recording and preserving the historical records and artifacts of the Church and set up an Archives for the Church.

As the Bishop of Gombe, the Anglican Church grew from 18 congregation to over 150 churches. God has blessed the Diocese through the humble service of faith of this servant of God and the pastors. Church planting and evangelism, raising of lay and pastoral leadership and discipleship remain the core of his ministry. He worked with communities and leaders of Gombe State to see to peaceful coexistence and community development. In order to sustain the ministry of the gospel in Gombe State.

Ndukuba worked with Luke Partnership, Nigeria Bible Translation Trust and Seed Company to produce literary materials and translate the Bible and Jesus film into 10 of the 17 tribal languages in the state. He is the BOT Chairman of LIST, the registered body working on translation of Bible, Jesus Film and literary materials in Nigeria languages especially minority languages in Nigeria.

The work of ministry is ongoing for there are still many lands to conquer. The harvest is plentiful and the laborers are few but thanks be to the Lord of the harvest for with Him, all things are possible. Furthermore, he is a sound Biblical Scholar, Teacher, Master Liturgist, prolific writer, Pastor and an accomplished Evangelist. He loves the Lord Jesus Christ and has a great heart for the Word of God.

Ndukuba is married to Mrs. Angela E. Ndukuba (Nee Okoro), an accomplished servant of God, Educationist and mother in God’s church. They are blessed with six children and a grandson and two granddaughters.  

Cynthia Kay

Starting a business can be daunting. The statistics bear that out, with high failure rates in the first five years and others closing their doors within the five-to-ten-year mark. There are many reasons for failure, including the lack of cash, not doing enough research and poor marketing. But there is one reason that does not get enough attention: a bad partnership.

Most would-be business owners are good at what they do or make but might not have all the skills necessary to succeed in the long term. That's why they look to open the doors with a partner.

How do people find a business partner? Some use their network of friends and family to get recommendations. Professionals make connections at industry events or conferences and find people who have similar interests.

It is common for individuals to look to current colleagues or those they have worked with in the past when it comes time to starting a business. After all, you know them. You know the quality of their work. You know their goals and aspirations. Or do you?

I thought I did when I partnered up with a co-worker to start my media production company. The idea was that I could handle the sales and creative aspects of the business, and my partner would manage the operation and technical aspects of the business. On paper, it looked good. It sounded appealing to those we approached for loans.

As a bonus, when we worked together at a television station, it seemed like we were compatible and like-minded regarding business. However, working with another individual is different from owning a business with them. That is why some partnerships go south. That is exactly what happened to mine, and as a result, I developed my "business prenup" to help others avoid the mistakes I made. It's important to get smart about partnering, or you might need to get a business divorce.

The concept I first explained in my book Small Business for Big Thinkersback in 2013 goes beyond the typical things you discuss when considering a partnership, such as business structure, compensation and buy-out. Those are important, but the conflicts often arise from those fuzzy, grey areas that should have been considered but did not because you believed you knew the individual. That is often the case when partnering with current or past co-workers.

In my most recent book, Small Business. Big Success, I expanded the business prenup concept to include some additional areas.

Before you open the doors with a potential partner, here are three things to consider.

1. Ownership mindset

Some individuals are great at their jobs but might not have what it takes to be an owner. Being an owner means that you take responsibility for everything, not just the work within your area of expertise. An owner has to be willing to put in the hours, make tough decisions and drive outcomes. It is very different than being an employee. Some can make the transition. Others cannot.

My ex-partner was more interested in filling out reports and doing mundane tasks than working on the important tasks that would deliver results. He liked "busy work." To see if your potential partner has the "right stuff," ask a few questions. What do you think your role is as a business owner? What is your vision for the business in the first five years? Beyond that? Are there tasks you won't do for the business? How do you see us working together?

2. Personal and style differences

People's family backgrounds and upbringing influence how they behave in business. It is one thing to work side by side with a co-worker in someone else's operation and quite another when you spend massive amounts of time together building a business. Little things that might have niggled at you suddenly become problematic. For example, every person's idea of ideal working hours might be a little different. What one person thinks is work/life balance may appear to another as being lazy. What if one person has a "glass half full" mentality while another is constantly negative? That can wear on a relationship.

When working for someone else, the structure is set by the organization. In a partnership, personalities take over. There can be unanticipated power plays to get control. That co-worker who seemed mild-mannered is suddenly unrecognizable. Or downright controlling. It is hard to know how people will react when it comes to money and power. That is why taking the time to uncover potential issues or differences is so critical before joining forces.

Here are a few questions to ask. Do you have personalities that complement each other? Does your potential partner have a healthy lifestyle? Is there anything about them that is annoying or troubling?

3. Trust

Consider this. When you partner with someone, your financial and family's futures are inextricably tied to them. And it goes beyond money. Your reputation is also on the line. If your partner engages in risky behavior or operates on the fringe of integrity, it impacts your business and your life.

If you can't communicate with a potential partner about everything — run, don't walk away. Communication is key to establishing trust and the foundation for a successful partnership. Here are questions to ask in this area. Is your potential partner a good communicator? Are there things he or she seems hesitant to discuss? Do they exaggerate the truth?

Partnering with a co-worker or colleague can bring out the best in both parties. The old saying is that "two heads are better than one." That is true. With a partner, you get support and additional expertise. However, it can also be a nightmare if you don't have shared values and open communication. Ask lots of questions and listen openly before forming a partnership.

 

Entrepreneur

At least one person was killed in renewed anti-government protests across Kenya on Tuesday, a Reuters reporter said, as police clashed with demonstrators demanding that President William Ruto step down.

Youth-led protests that broke out a month ago against proposed tax hikeshave continued even after Ruto withdrew the legislation and fired almost all of his cabinet. Activists say they want Ruto to resign and are calling for systemic changes to clean up corruption and address poor governance.

At least 50 people have been killed in the protests to date, the government-funded Kenya National Commission on Human Rights (KNCHR) said on Tuesday.

In Kitengela, a town on the southern outskirts of the capital Nairobi, police fired repeatedly in the direction of hundreds of protesters, some of whom were throwing rocks, Reuters TV footage showed. The protesters also burned tyres, waved Kenyan flags and chanted "Ruto must go!"

A Reuters reporter saw the body of one protester lying on the ground with blood oozing from a head wound. The national police spokesperson declined to comment.

In a statement, the interior ministry did not directly address events on Tuesday, but said security agencies were under instructions to exercise restraint.

The demonstrations on Tuesday appeared to be some of the biggest since Ruto withdrew the tax increases on June 26. The Nation newspaper reported protests in at least 23 of Kenya's 47 counties.

In Nairobi's city centre, riot police fired tear gas at several dozen protesters and medics were seen carrying away an injured person on a stretcher. In Nakuru, a journalist was injured, with television footage showing her bleeding from her thigh.

Njeri Wa Migwi, an activist who was protesting in downtown Nairobi, said the demonstration was entirely peaceful until police started firing tear gas.

"Today feels very insidious. It was like the police were out to get us," she said.

DEBT CRISIS

The protests have created the biggest crisis of Ruto's two years in power. With Kenya spending over 30% of its revenues just paying the interest bills on its debt, he has been caught between the demands of lenders to cut deficits and a hard-pressed population reeling from rising living costs.

"Ruto is very incompetent," said one protester in Nairobi who did not give his name. "The guy is a puppet to the IMF."

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been a major target of the ire of young Kenyan protesters, who have accused it of being the driving force behind the proposed tax hikes.

The IMF has said its main goal through its lending programmes with Kenya has been helping the country overcome economic challenges and improve its people's well-being.

Ruto's office had announced "multi-sectoral" talks for this week to address grievances raised by the protesters, but there was no sign they had begun. Most of the leading activists behind the protests have rejected the invitation, instead calling for immediate action on issues like corruption.

Ruto's spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment.

The protests began peacefully but later turned violent. Some demonstrators briefly stormed parliament on June 25, and the police opened fire.

In addition to the 50 deaths, 413 people have been injured, 682 have been arbitrarily detained and 59 have been abducted or are missing in connection with the protests, KNCHR said.

Ruto has promised to investigate accusations of abuse but has broadly defended the conduct of the police. Last week, he accepted the resignation of the national police chief, whose ouster had also been demanded by protesters.

On Monday, Ruto accused the Ford Foundation, an American philanthropic organisation, of sponsoring those who had caused "violence and mayhem" in Kenya, without providing evidence.

The Ford Foundation rejected the allegation, saying it did not fund or sponsor the protests and has a strictly non-partisan policy for its grant-making.

 

Reuters

The Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association, NECA, Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, MAN, and the Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce Industry Mines and Agriculture, NACCIMA, have blamed hastily implemented government policy shifts without corresponding plans to mitigate the negative effects of the inception of the present government for the socio-economic crises confronting the country currently.

The trio spoke separately on the issue yesterday, with NECA saying major policy shifts undertaken by the government in 2023 and the adverse impacts they had across various sectors, are having terrible effects on businesses and the national economy.

President and Chairman of Council, NECA, Taiwo Adeniyi, at the 67th Annual General Meeting, AGM, of the Association yesterday in Lagos, lamented that the combination of fuel subsidy removal, and exchange rate liberalization have significantly created market distortions and increased the cost of doing business, leading to a contraction in business activities since mid-2023.

He said: “It is no longer a secret that private businesses in the economy are beset with innumerable challenges, pushing many to the realm of mere subsistence.

‘’A good number of these private businesses continue to exist due to sheer determination and doggedness of the owners and investors, who are committed to supporting the economy.

Our concerns

Adeniyi listed six key concerns of businesses including the high cost of doing business due to depreciation in the value of the naira, increased Customs forex rate for clearing of cargoes, business-antagonistic regulations, proliferation of provocative taxes/levies and oversight functions of the National Assembly.

He said: “Private businesses are struggling with high production costs due to increased import bills for foreign inputs and raw materials. Before the liberalization of the forex regime, N460 was exchanged for US$ in the official market and about N750/US$ in the parallel market.

“After the policy, the exchange rate soared to N1600/US$, significantly raising import costs for the private sector. To address these challenges, we urge the Federal Government to review the current forex liberalization policy and adopt a more guided forex management procedure that supports domestic production.

“The upward review of Customs rate for cargo clearance to N1,413/US$ from N952/US$ in February 2024 has severely impacted businesses. These increases depleted the working capital of businesses, increased cost of production and drove up commodity prices, while also reducing household purchasing power.

‘’It has also contributed ominously to the general contraction of private businesses in the economy. Therefore, we urge the government to embark more on policies that are not only pro-business but also drive production and ensure job creation.

“In recent times, we have witnessed a proliferation of unfriendly and unjustifiable regulations aimed at organized businesses. It is our firm believe that regulations are meant to promote businesses and not to stifle them.

“Some of the recent regulations have become a source of shock and distraction to organized businesses, even though some of them were eventually suspended. For instance, the recent ban on alcoholic beverages in small packs by the National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control, NAFDAC, caused significant anxiety in the sector before being suspended after lengthy engagement with the government.

‘’We, therefore, urge the government to always conduct exhaustive consultation with private sector stakeholders on policy issues and act in the overall interest of the country within the prevailing circumstances.

“In recent times, we have observed several new taxes being imposed on private businesses by the Federal Government agencies. While we have witnessed the introduction of new taxes and levies, we commend government’s bold initiative of inaugurating the Taiwo Oyedele led Presidential Committee on Fiscal and Tax Reforms.

‘’It is hoped that the recommendations of the presidential committee will usher in a new dawn in tax administration in Nigeria.

“For over 10 years, we have witnessed the incessant invitation of organized businesses by different committees of the National Assembly on issues within the purview of the executive arm of government.

‘’Constitutionally, the National Assembly’s oversight function does not extend to private businesses. This responsibility lies with the ministries, departments, and agencies, MDAs, of the government.

‘’These invitations have caused significant distress to businesses, consuming time and resources. Although NECA has ongoing litigation on the dimension of the exercise of the oversight function with the Supreme Court, we urge the committees of the National Assembly to exercise their oversight responsibilities within the confines of the constitution.”

MAN blames forex, power, inflation

Reacting, the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, MAN, also identified foreign exchange (FX) volatility, inadequate power supply and high inflation as some of the topmost challenges they encountered in their operations in the first quarter of 2024 (Q1’24).

This, according to it, led to a further surge in production and distribution costs by 20.7 per cent within the period.

MAN based its position on the response of chief executive officers in the manufacturing sector on a survey it carried out.

The Manufacturers CEO Confidence Index, MCCI, Q1’24 survey report stated: “The list of manufacturers’ challenges include unstable and high exchange rate/scarcity of FX; inadequate power supply/frequent power outages; high inflation/high operating cost (of raw materials, labour, equipment and maintenance); high cost of energy (petrol, diesel, gas); high and multiple taxes, charges and levies, among others.”

Commenting, the Director General of MAN, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, said: “The subdued performance of the sector is attributed to some ongoing harsh economic reforms that have compounded the long-standing challenges confronting the sector.

‘’This is confirmed by the finding of this report which reveals that forex scarcity, inadequate power supply, high inflation, rising energy cost, multiple taxation, policy inconsistency, exorbitant interest rate, poor infrastructure and high logistics costs are the top ten challenges depressing productivity in the sector.

“MAN expects government to frontally address insecurity, improve electricity supply, promote fiscal sustainability, and ensure policy consistency.’’

NACCIMA seeks improved public finance management

Similarly, the Director General, Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce Industry Mines and Agriculture, NACCIMA, Sola Obadimu, said: “The cost of doing business continues to rise almost on a daily basis.

‘’That’s neither healthy for business operations nor planning. Due to rising interest rates, MSMEs may not have the financial capacity to borrow. Large businesses may also prefer to downsize rather than borrow at current rates.

“With decreasing production due to high cost of funds, unemployment may worsen with the possibility of an increase in crime rates. Unfortunately, in the midst of all these, there seems to be a deliberate effort to aggressively pursue tax drive policies.

“Certainly, there is a need for an improvement in public finance management to ameliorate the harsh economic environment.”

NLC threatens to shut Nigeria

Meanwhile, in his goodwill message at the NECA AGM, President of Nigeria Labour Congress, NLC, Joe Ajaero, solicited the support of NECA for a better wage for workers, saying it was not about figure but the value of money.

Ajaero said: “Fair wages are not just a matter of social justice; they are also instrumental in boosting worker’s productivity and, consequently, the bottom line for employers. Enhanced purchasing power among workers will lead to increased consumption, thereby addressing the concerns of rising inventories in warehouses.

‘’We have advocated from the beginning of our engagement on the national minimum wage fixing exercise for the need to put more money in the hands of workers. We made this case on the understanding that it will help our businesses and rev up the economy.

‘’We had strongly believed that your organization would have been one with us and would have seen that we are actually making a great case for the survival of your businesses. We do not have any interest in crippling our businesses because you cannot cut your nose to spite your face.

‘’It is on this premise that we urge members of NECA to join us in the quest for a national minimum wage that will eliminate deep poverty from the lives of workers; wages that will not increase the number of the working poor and amount to a starvation wage for Nigerian workers is what we should all push for.

‘’The only way to break the present consumer resistance is to increase the wages of workers and that speaks to the policy of government that seeks to reflate the economy. It is not by giving handouts or reducing Nigerians to beggars who must queue at the various charity parks before they can eat.

‘’We must join hands to stop this collective slide into the pit. We must save our businesses by saving workers. N250,000 as national minimum wage is already a steep consideration by Nigerian workers.

As we are speaking now, the House of Representatives and the Senate are meeting to make sure they decentralize wage.

‘’We all know that wage in International Labour Organisation, ILO, is a national law and Nigeria will not be an exception. We will also demand that the wages of political officeholders and others are brought under minimum wage.

‘’You cannot be in the Senate and you are under minimum wage and not legislate for a better wage We should know your wage, we should know what you are earning. If you are a governor, you have security vote that is unaccounted for. If you have excess funds, you will not know that people are suffering.

“But if everybody is brought under the minimum wage, even if the governors want to create level 18, 19, or 20 for them, they all should come under the wage system. That is the only way it is going to work.

“If it is possible, both the House of Representatives and the Senate should be on part-time basis.
‘’Let it be based on professional callings. If you are a lawyer, a doctor, you have a business or profession of your own. If they meet three times a week, then the remaining days in the week, you go on with your businesses because the money being spent at the National Assembly is unimaginable. ‘’Unless we address this, the country will continue to go down and the gap between the rich and poor will continue to widen.

Later, in a chat with journalists after his remarks, Ajaero warned that should the governors and members of the National Assembly succeed in deregulating the minimum wage, Organised labour would shut the country for one month.

He insisted that by the International Labour Organization, ILO, Convention 131 ratified by Nigeria, minimum wage is a national issue, warning that organised labour would not accept a situation where governors, working with the members of the National Assembly, imposed slave wage and poverty on workers and Nigerians.

“As we are here, a joint committee of the Senate, the House of Representatives, and the Judiciary are meeting. They have decided to remove section 34 from the Exclusive legislative list to the concurrent list so that state governors can determine what to pay you and so that there will be no minimum wage again.

‘’You cannot decide what you should earn. The very moment the House of Representatives and the Senate come up with such a law that will not benefit Nigerian workers, they will be their drivers and gatemen, and there will be no movement for one month.

‘’We cannot accept any situation where the governors and the National Assembly members will foist a slave wage on workers and force poverty on the citizens. Organised ‘labour will not accept it,’’ Ajaero said.

 

Vanguard

The consensus among Nigeria’s private sector is clear and damning: President Bola Tinubu’s economic policies are decimating businesses, causing widespread job losses, exacerbating poverty, and deepening national misery. The Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association (NECA), Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), and the Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines, and Agriculture (NACCIMA) have all sounded the alarm. It is imperative that the government change course before it is too late.

The policy shifts enacted in 2023, particularly the removal of fuel subsidies and the liberalization of the exchange rate, have created market distortions and increased the cost of doing business. These changes, implemented without adequate measures to mitigate their negative impacts, have led to a contraction in business activities and left many private enterprises struggling for survival. Taiwo Adeniyi, President of NECA, has lamented that the economy's private businesses are now operating on sheer determination and doggedness, rather than any conducive policy environment.

The high cost of doing business in Nigeria has been exacerbated by the depreciation of the naira, which has skyrocketed from N460 to N1600 per US dollar in the official market. This has significantly raised import costs and depleted the working capital of businesses. The upward review of Customs rates for cargo clearance has further strained businesses, driving up production costs and commodity prices while reducing household purchasing power. These pressures are stifling private businesses and contributing to a general economic contraction.

Moreover, the proliferation of unjustifiable regulations and taxes is creating an even more hostile environment for businesses. NECA has pointed out that recent regulations, such as the temporary ban on small packs of alcoholic beverages by NAFDAC, have caused significant anxiety and disruption. These regulations often appear to be implemented without proper consultation with private sector stakeholders, adding to the unpredictability and instability that businesses must navigate.

The manufacturing sector, represented by MAN, has highlighted the additional challenges of foreign exchange volatility, inadequate power supply, and high inflation. These issues have driven up production and distribution costs by over 20 percent in the first quarter of 2024 alone. The government’s harsh economic reforms have compounded these longstanding problems, leading to a further decline in productivity and economic performance.

The NACCIMA has also raised concerns about the rising cost of doing business and the aggressive pursuit of tax policies. With interest rates soaring, many businesses, especially MSMEs, are unable to secure the financing they need to operate and grow. This, coupled with decreasing production and rising unemployment, creates a vicious cycle of economic decline and social instability.

The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) has joined the chorus of criticism, warning that the government's failure to address these issues could lead to widespread unrest. Joe Ajaero, President of the NLC, has emphasized the need for fair wages to boost worker productivity and stimulate economic growth. The call for a national minimum wage that can lift workers out of poverty is not just a matter of social justice but an economic necessity.

In light of these multifaceted crises, it is clear that the current economic policies are unsustainable. The government must embark on a more balanced approach that supports domestic production, ensures fair and stable exchange rates, and provides a conducive environment for businesses to thrive. Regulatory and tax policies must be crafted in close consultation with the private sector to avoid unnecessary disruptions and foster a climate of stability and growth.

Failure to act decisively and change course will only deepen Nigeria’s economic woes and exacerbate social tensions. It is time for President Bola Tinubu and his administration to listen to the voices of the private sector, labour organizations, and economic experts. The future of Nigeria’s economy, and the well-being of its citizens, depend on it.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reduced its forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth to 3.1 percent in 2024 — down from a 3.3 percent projected in April.

The downgrade is 0.2 percentage points below the prior forecast.

In its July 2024 World Economic Outlook released on Tuesday, IMF said a lower-than-expected activity in the first quarter (Q1) of the year impacted decisions for the downgrade.

The IMF, however, retained a 3.0 percent forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth in 2025.

NIGERIA AND SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Revealing further, IMF downgraded its forecast for sub-Saharan Africa economic growth in 2024 to 3.7 percent — from the April forecast of 3.8 percent.

“The forecast for growth in sub-Saharan Africa is revised downward, mainly as a result of a 0.2 percentage point downward revision to the growth outlook in Nigeria amid weaker than expected activity in the first quarter of this year,” the Bretton Woods institution said.

However, IMF increased its forecast for economic growth in the region for 2025 to 4.1 percent — from 4.0 in its April projection.

GLOBAL PROJECTION 

IMF retained its global economic forecast at 3.2 percent in 2024 and 3.3 percent in 2025.

“Growth is expected to remain stable. At 3.2 percent in 2024 and 3.3 percent in 2025, the forecast for global economic growth is broadly unchanged from that in April,” the international lender said. 

“Among advanced economies, growth is expected to converge over the coming quarters. 

“In the United States, projected growth is revised downward to 2.6 percent in 2024 (0.1 percentage point lower than projected in April), reflecting the slower-than-expected start to the year. 

“Growth is expected to slow to 1.9 percent in 2025 as the labour market cools and consumption moderates, with fiscal policy starting to tighten gradually. By the end of 2025, growth is projected to taper to potential, closing  the positive output gap.”

Also, IMF forecasted that global inflation will continue to decline. 

“In advanced economies, the revised forecast is for the pace of disinflation to slow in 2024 and 2025,” the Bretton Woods institution said.

“That is because inflation in prices for services is now expected to be more persistent and commodity prices higher. 

“However, the gradual cooling of labor markets, together with an expected decline in energy prices, should bring headline inflation back to target by the end of 2025. 

“Inflation is expected to remain higher in emerging market and developing economies (and to drop more slowly) than in advanced economies.”

IMF said inflation is already close to pre-pandemic levels for the median emerging market and developing economy partly due to falling energy prices.

 

The Cable

The Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) announced that the federal, state, and local governments shared N1.35 trillion in June, marking an increase of N210 billion from the N1.14 trillion distributed in May. The details were disclosed in a communiqué issued after the July meeting, chaired by Wale Edun, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy.

According to the communiqué, the N1.35 trillion shared among the three tiers of government in June came from a gross total of N2.48 trillion. The breakdown included N142 billion in statutory revenue and N523 billion from value-added tax (VAT) revenue. Additionally, the revenue included N15 billion from the electronic money transfer levy (EMTL), N472 billion from exchange difference revenue, and N200 billion from exchange difference and augmentation, totaling N1.354 trillion in distributable revenue for June.

From the N1.35 trillion, the federal government received N459.7 billion, states received N461.9 billion, and local government councils got N337 billion. Oil-producing states were allocated N95.5 billion as derivation (13 percent of mineral revenue). The cost of collection amounted to N92.1 billion, and N1.03 billion was allocated for transfer intervention and refunds.

The gross revenue available from VAT for June was N562.6 billion, higher than the N497.6 billion available in May. Of the N523 billion in distributable VAT revenue, the federal government received N78.5 billion, states got N261.9 billion, and local governments were allocated N183.3 billion.

The gross statutory revenue for the month was N142.5 billion. From this, the federal government received N48.9 billion, states got N24.82 billion, and local governments received N19.14 billion. Oil-producing states were given N49.5 billion as 13 percent derivation revenue.

Regarding the N16.34 billion from the EMTL distributed to the three tiers of government, the federal government received N2.3 billion, states got N7.8 billion, and local governments were allocated N5.4 billion.

The FAAC communiqué also noted significant increases in companies' income tax (CIT) and VAT, with marginal increases in import and excise duties and EMTL. Conversely, there were considerable decreases in petroleum profit tax (PPT), royalty crude, rentals, and customs external tariff levies (CET). The balance in the excess crude account (ECA) as of June was $473,754.57.

Israeli strikes across Gaza kill at least 57, Palestinian health officials say

Israeli forces battled Hamas-led fighters in several parts of the Gaza Strip on Tuesday, and Palestinian health officials said at least 57 people were killed in Israeli bombardments of southern and central areas.

The Palestinian Islamist militant group Hamas has accused Israel of stepping up attacks in Gaza to try to derail efforts by Arab mediators and the United States to reach a ceasefire deal. Israel says it is trying to root out Hamas fighters.

In Rafah, a southern border city where Israeli forces have been operating since May, five Palestinians were killed in an airstrike on a house, Gaza health officials said. In nearby Khan Younis, a man, his wife, and two children were killed, they said.

Later on Tuesday, an Israeli airstrike on a car killed at least 17 Palestinians and wounded 26 others in Khan Younis in southern Gaza, the officials said.

The airstrike hit near a tented area housing displaced families in Attar Street in the humanitarian-designated area of Al-Mawasi, the health ministry said.

The Israeli military said the strike targeted a senior militant of the Islamic Jihad group, an ally of Hamas.

"We are looking into the reports stating that several civilians were injured as a result of the strike," the military statement said.

Reuters footage showed residents carrying bodies of the dead and wounded on donkey carts and in rickshaws to hospitals.

"The car was targeted, the blood was splashing, and shrapnel hit our tents and martyrs were left on the street. We screamed: ‘We need an ambulance'. We put (the casualties) on carts and rickshaws and the ambulance came after a while,” said eyewitness Tahrir Matir, who lives in a tent nearby.

UN SCHOOL ALSO HIT

In the historic Nuseirat camp in central Gaza, at least four Palestinians were killed in separate shelling and aerial strikes in central Gaza, medics said. An Israeli airstrike also killed four in Sheikh Zayed in northern Gaza, they said.

Hours later, an Israeli air strike on a U.N.-run school that housed displaced families in the Nuseirat camp killed 23 people and wounded many others, health officials said.

Among those killed was local journalist Mohammad Meshmesh, taking the number of journalists killed in the conflict to 160, the Hamas-run Gaza government media office said.

"Where is the safety for (U.N.) agency schools? There are no more safe agency schools, or safe clinics, no more safe houses, no safe streets. We have been left desolate, displaced and destroyed," said eyewitness Umm Omar Ahmed at Nuseirat camp.

The Israeli military said in a statement it had attacked a group of "terrorists" who had operated from inside the school, after taking steps to mitigate the risk to civilians.

Israel vowed to eradicate Hamas after its militants killed 1,200 people and took over 250 hostage in an attack on southern Israeli communities on Oct. 7, according to Israeli tallies.

On Tuesday, the military said it had eliminated half of the leadership of Hamas' military wing, with about 14,000 fighters killed or captured since the start of the war.

At least 38,713 Palestinians have been killed in Israel's retaliatory offensive since then, Gaza health authorities said in their latest update on Tuesday. Israel also says 326 of its soldiers have been killed in Gaza.

Relatives visited Al-Aqsa Hospital in Deir Al-Balah in central Gaza to say farewell to relatives before funerals.

"We’re exhausted... we are extremely tired, our patience is over," said elderly Palestinian Sahar Abu Emeira. "Whether Hamas or the others (Israel) they need to agree as soon as possible."

TALKS PAUSED

Efforts to end the conflict stalled on Saturday after three days of negotiations failed to produce a viable outcome, Egyptian security sources said, and after an Israeli strike targeting Hamas' top military chief, Mohammed Deif.

That attack killed more than 90 people in the Khan Younis area, according to Gaza health authorities.

A Palestinian official close to the negotiations told Reuters Hamas was keen not to be seen as halting the talks despite the stepped-up Israeli attacks.

"Hamas wants the war to end, not at any price. It says it has shown the flexibility needed and is pushing the mediators to get Israel to reciprocate," the official said.

He said Hamas believed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was trying to avoid a deal by adding more conditions that restrict the return of displaced people to northern Gaza, and to keep control over the Rafah border crossing with Egypt.

U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said on Monday that two senior advisers to Netanyahu had said Israel was still committed to reaching a ceasefire.

 

Reuters

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine lying about wanting peace talks – Moscow

Kiev’s statements about resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict by political and diplomatic means are empty words and deception, a senior Russian diplomat told TASS news agency on Wednesday.

Alexey Polishchuk, the director of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Second Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Department, explained that a ban on negotiations with Moscow introduced by Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky is still in effect, making peace talks impossible.

“If the authorities in Kiev were actually ready to resolve the crisis using political and diplomatic methods, they would first of all cancel the decree that is in force in Ukraine on the self-prohibition of negotiations with the Russian leadership,” he said.

In March 2022, Zelensky signed a decree declaring any prospect of Ukrainian peace talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin illegal, but left the door open to negotiations with Russia.

Kiev’s statements about seeking peace are made “to win the sympathy of countries of the Global South and lure them into the anti-Russian Western camp,” Polishchuk said, adding that he hopes most states understand this.

His comments come a day after Zelensky suggested that Ukraine and its supporters intend to hold a second ‘peace summit’ by November, and will invite Russia to participate.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the goals and agenda of such an event were unclear, noting that the previous Western-backed gathering in Switzerland had made no progress in resolving the crisis.

The Swiss-hosted summit was focused on three points of Vladimir Zelensky’s ‘peace formula’, including calls on Russia to withdraw from all territories that Ukraine claims as its own, reparations paid by Moscow to Kiev, and a tribunal for the Russian leadership after the conflict. Moscow has dismissed the proposal as being detached from reality.

Zelensky’s offer of negotiations was set out days after a survey carried out by the Razumkov Center for Political and Economic Studies suggested that nearly 44% of Ukrainians support the idea of “official peace talks” with Russia. At the same time, the poll showed that an absolute majority are still not ready to make concessions to Moscow and believe that Kiev could prevail in the conflict.

 

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Zelenskiy proposes legislation to strip awards from Ukrainian 'traitors'

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged parliament on Tuesday to pass legislation that would define procedures to strip "traitors" of state awards previously bestowed on them, including the country's highest honours.

Zelenskiy, in his nightly video address, named no individuals that would be subject to the proposed legislation to alter Ukraine's criminal code.

He said the measure sought to "restore justice" by targeting those who "as a result of their actions, have lost the right to any respect from Ukrainians".

"A legal mechanism is needed to effectively strip such individuals of all state awards of Ukraine and honorary titles," he said.

"They deserve only one 'title' - traitors. And their 'reward' will be accountability to Ukraine and our people for everything done against Ukraine, against our state and against our independence."

He said the legislation would apply to all state awards, including the country's highest honour, Hero of Ukraine.

Since Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, hundreds of Ukrainians have been accused of collaborating with Moscow, including a number of prominent personalities.

These include Viktor Medvedchuk, pro-Kremlin business magnate and chief of staff to former President Leonid Kuchma, who was sent to Russia after being included in a mass prisoner swap in September 2022.

Any legislation could also apply to former Prime Minister Mykola Azarov who fled Ukraine during the 2014 popular uprising that removed from power President Viktor Yanukovych, since convicted of treason in absentia.

 

RT/Reuters