The inability of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to meet foreign exchange (FX) obligations may result in a decline in imports, PwC Nigeria says in its bi-monthly economic outlook for the country.

In the October report, titled, ‘Impact of Global Economic Trends on Nigeria’s Foreign Exchange and the Way Forward’, PwC said the unsettled $7 billion FX obligations of the CBN to banks will affect the confidence of foreign suppliers as regards letters of credit.

“Foreign suppliers may not accept letters of credit amid unsettled $7 billion FX obligations to domestic lenders,” the firm said.

“This may lead to less imports of the much-needed inputs and goods for manufacturing and retail/wholesale trade which may heighten inflationary pressures and negatively impact.”

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in the  first half of 2023, total imports rose slightly by 3.05 percent, compared to exports, which saw a sharp increase of 8.16 percent.

Commenting on the impact of the backlog on consumers, PwC said “the unsettled FX backlogs may lead to scarcity of goods and inputs for manufacturing and trade leading to further increase in prices”.

Also, PwC said the lack of forward guidance on FX policy and the unsettled backlog of FX obligations may continue to impact the sentiment of investors, who may adopt a “wait-and-see approach”.

The multinational said FX inflow may also decline due to an increase in the monetary policy rates of global central banks, which may lead to capital reallocation from Nigeria’s financial market to other markets with more attractive yields on investment.

“Capital reallocation from Nigeria’s economy may continue to impact foreign investment flows in the short to medium term,” PwC said.

PwC said the FX scarcity will persist in the short term despite the policies implemented by the CBN to improve accessibility, such as the reintroduction of Bureau De Change (BDC) and the adoption of the FX price verification system.

 

The Cable

Nigeria’s growth forecast has been reduced from 3.3 percent to 2.9 percent in 2023 and 3.1 in 2024 respectively, with negative effects of high inflation on consumption taking hold.

The cut is contained in the World Economic Outlook released at the Annual Meeting of the IMF/World in Marrakesh, Morocco on Tuesday.

The growth forecast for 2023 is revised downward by 0.3 percentage points, reflecting weaker oil and gas production than expected, partially due to maintenance work.

The World Bank had cut Nigeria’s 2022 growth forecast to 3.1% from a previous forecast of 3.8% in 2022.

In its last Nigeria Development Update (NDU), launched in Abuja, the bank said that the country had to make hard choices or face a worse economic downturn in the months and years ahead.

Since the Swearing of President Bola Tinubu on May 29, he has removed fuel subsidy and floated the exchange rate in line with the age-long recommendation of the IMF and World Bank.

A development that has seen the rate tumble to over N1000 to the dollar, and the energy prices increase by four folds from N144 to N620, impacting an already worsening inflation scenario.

The baseline forecast is for global growth to slow from 3.5 percent in 2022 to 3.0 percent in 2023 and 2.9 percent in 2024, well below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8 percent.

Advanced economies are expected to slow from 2.6 percent in 2022 to 1.5 percent in 2023 and 1.4 percent in 2024 as policy tightening starts to bite.

Emerging market and developing economies are projected to have a modest decline in growth from 4.1 percent in 2022 to 4.0 percent in both 2023 and 2024. Global inflation is forecast to decline steadily, from 8.7 percent in 2022 to 6.9 percent in 2023 and 5.8 percent in 2024, due to tighter monetary policy aided by lower international commodity prices.

 

Daily Trust

Gunmen kidnapped four people from a house in the university town of Keffi, in Nasarawa state, police said on Tuesday.

Kidnapping for ransom is rife in Nigeria, but attacks have mostly been in the northwest region where armed men have targeted university students.

Nasarawa police spokesperson Rahman Nansel said police received a distress call at about 0155 GMT on Tuesday after armed men invaded a house in Angwan Kaare community and responded with the military, but the kidnappers had already fled with their victims.

"The Commissioner of Police has ordered a manhunt for the culprits with a view to rescue the four victims unhurt," Nansel said in a statement.

Keffi is about 70 km (43 miles) east of Abuja, the Nigerian capital.

Kidnapping for ransom is part of widespread insecurity in Nigeria. Islamist insurgents still carry out deadly attacks in the northeast, violent clashes between herders and farmers continue to claim lives in the central region, and separatists attack security forces in the southeast.

 

Reuters

With the outbreak of an intensified war between Israel and Palestine, can mediation efforts help?

The United Nations secretary-general says he is “deeply distressed” by Israel’s complete siege of the Gaza Strip on day four of the deadly assault.

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said bombardment has “just started” after at least 900 Israelis were killed in the unprecedented Hamas attack on Saturday.

Most Western nations have shied away from calling on Israel to slow its brutal military response.

More than 700 Palestinians have been killed in three days of intense bombing, with 2.4 million Palestinians living there having nowhere to go amid an Israeli land, sea and air blockade.

Can the international community intervene to stop Israel from exacting collective punishment on the Palestinians of Gaza?

“I think it’s early to talk about mediation, because [right now] Israel is reacting based on anger and revenge,” Professor Mahjoob Zweiri, director of the Gulf Studies Center at Qatar University, told Al Jazeera.

Here’s a closer look at the countries and international organisations that may play peacemaker.

The Arab League

The Arab League’s foreign ministers will meet on Wednesday in an emergency summit.

The extraordinary session was requested by the Palestinian delegation, the League’s statement said.

Secretary-General Hossam Zaki said the ministers would discuss Arab efforts to “stop the Israeli aggression” on Gaza.

The possible outcomes of tomorrow’s meeting remain unclear.

Zweiri says the Arab League has no role to play. “It’s a reflection of the fragmented Arab governments. It has no tools.”

China

Beijing expressed deep concern over the escalation of conflict and called for “calm”.

Observers have wondered if China will try to promote itself as a regional peacemaker after it successfully brokered a rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

In April, the country’s then-foreign minister, Qin Gang, told the Israeli and Palestinian foreign ministers that China was ready to facilitate efforts towards peace talks.

China supports a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, based on pre-1967 borders and with East Jerusalem as the capital of a sovereign Palestinian state. It has also advocated for international development assistance for Palestinians.

Egypt

Cairo has acted as a mediator between Israel and Palestinian groups in previous conflicts but Zweiri says it will try to distance itself from the escalating situation in Gaza.

“They [Egypt] want to distance themselves from what is happening because … Egypt is going to elections,” he said.

Europe

The leaders of many European nations including France and Germany condemned the Hamas attacks and have shown solidarity with Israel.

The European Union foreign ministers are scheduled to hold an extraordinary meeting on Tuesday afternoon to discuss the war.

The EU’s initial response to the conflict was to announce the immediate suspension of development aid for Palestinians. Later it said it would be reviewing the assistance, not suspending it.

Spain’s Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albarez said such a move was unacceptable and cooperation must continue.

“We cannot confuse Hamas, which is on the European Union’s list of terrorist groups, with the Palestinian population, the Palestinian Authority, or the United Nations organisations present on the ground,” he told Spanish radio station Cadena SER on Tuesday morning.

Iran

Iran’s possible role in mediation remains unclear.

Its Supreme Leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei said on Tuesday: “We of course defend Palestinians. We kiss the forehead and arms of the brave fighters and youths of Palestine, yes it’s true.

“But those who say non-Palestinians were behind what was done… they do not know Palestinians well. They have underestimated the nation of Palestine. That is their mistake.”

Qatar

The Gulf nation is known for its mediation efforts in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and its ongoing assistance to Gaza, which has been under Israeli siege for 16 years.

“Our priorities are to end the bloodshed, release the prisoners and make sure the conflict is contained with no regional spillover,” foreign ministry spokesperson Majed al-Ansari told Reuters.

However, an Israeli official told Reuters: “There are no negotiations under way.”

Russia

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said creating a Palestinian state was the “most reliable” solution for peace in Israel and that fighting alone would not ensure security.

Turkey

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called on both Hamas fighters and Israeli armed forces to stop the violence and offered to mediate.

If peace talks are to start, Zweiri believes Turkey and Qatar will both have an active role.

“I’m assuming this because they both have communications with Hamas and Israel, and we have to look at who is capable of being able to talk to both sides.”

UN agencies

As part of earlier mediation efforts, weeks before the Saturday attack, the UN was engaged in diplomacy to try to prevent new armed confrontations between Israel and Hamas.

UN Middle East peace envoy Tor Wennesland met Hamas officials in Gaza and posted on X: “The United Nations is talking to and working with all concerned to improve the lives of people in Gaza, particularly the most vulnerable.”

The United States

Israel’s closest ally has promised “rock solid and unwavering” support to Israel and said it would send munitions as it moved its military ships and aircraft closer to it.

Al Jazeera’s senior correspondent John Hendren, reporting from Washington, DC, said talks of diplomacy and of a two-state solution are on hold for now.

Washington has said it wants a future Palestinian state, but it has failed to convince Israel, to which it gives $3bn in annual military aid, to honour the agreements it signed with the Palestinians.

Settlement expansion on Palestinian lands and settler violence have increased, particularly under the extreme right-wing government Netanyahu heads.

Zweiri said the US reaction has been shocking. “They [the US] are basically allowing Israel to do what they want in Gaza.”

 

Aljazeera

Israeli warplanes hammered the Gaza Strip neighborhood by neighborhood Tuesday, reducing buildings to rubble and sending people scrambling to find safety in the tiny, sealed-off territory now suffering severe retaliation for the deadly weekend attack by Hamas militants.

Humanitarian groups pleaded for the creation of corridors to get aid into Gaza and warned that hospitals overwhelmed with wounded people were running out of supplies. Israel has stopped entry of food, fuel and medicines into Gaza, and the sole remaining access from Egypt shut down Tuesday after airstrikes hit near the border crossing.

The war, which has claimed at least 1,900 lives on both sides, is expected to escalate. The weekend attack that Hamas said was retribution for worsening conditions for Palestinians under Israeli occupation has inflamed Israel’s determination to crush the group’s hold in Gaza. New exchanges of fire over Israel’s northern borders with militants in Lebanon and Syria on Tuesday pointed to the risk of an expanded regional conflict.

Hamas militants stormed into Israel on Saturday morning, slaying hundreds of residents in homes and streets near the Gaza border and bringing gunbattles to Israeli towns for the first time in decades. Hamas and other militant groups in Gaza hold about 150 soldiers and civilians hostage, according to Israel.

Israel stepped up its offensive on Tuesday, expanding the mobilization of reservists to 360,000. Israel’s military said it had regained effective control over areas Hamas attacked in its south and of the Gaza border.

A looming question is whether Israel will launch a ground assault into Gaza — a 40-kilometer-long (25-mile) strip of land wedged among Israel, Egypt and the Mediterranean Sea that is home to 2.3 million people and has been governed by Hamas since 2007.

Rescue officials in Gaza said “large numbers” of people were still trapped under the remnants of leveled buildings, with rescue equipment and ambulances unable to reach the area.

On Tuesday, a large part of Gaza City’s Rimal neighborhood was reduced to rubble after hours of airstrikes the night before. Residents found buildings torn in half or demolished to mounds of concrete and rebar. Cars were flattened and trees burned out on residential streets transformed into moonscapes.

Palestinian Civil Defense forces pulled Abdullah Musleh out of his basement together with 30 others after their apartment building was flattened.

“I sell toys, not missiles,’’ the 46-year-old said, weeping. “I want to leave Gaza. Why do I have to stay here? I lost my home and my job.”

The Israeli military said it struck hundreds of targets in Rimal, an upscale district home to ministries of the Hamas-run government, universities, media organizations and the aid agency offices.

In a new tactic, Israel is warning civilians to evacuate neighborhood after neighborhood, and then inflicting devastation, in what could be a prelude to a ground offensive. On Tuesday, the military told residents of the nearby al-Daraj neighborhood to evacuate. New explosions soon rocked it and other areas, continuing into the night.

Fighter jets returned multiple times to another neighborhood, al-Furqan, striking 450 targets in 24 hours, the Israeli military said.

One blast hit Gaza City’s seaport, setting fishing boats aflame.

“There is no safe place in Gaza right now. You see decent people being killed every day,” Gaza journalist Hasan Jabar said after three Palestinian journalists were killed in the Rimal bombardment. “I am genuinely afraid for my life.”

On Tuesday afternoon, Hamas fired barrages of rockets toward the southern Israeli city of Ashkelon and Tel Aviv. There were no immediate reports of casualties. On Tuesday night, a group of militants entered an industrial zone in Ashkelon, sparking a gunbattle with Israeli troops, the military said. Three militants were killed, and troops were searching the area for others.

Israel’s new tactics could point to its new objective.

Four previous rounds of Israel-Hamas fighting between 2008 and 2021 all ended inconclusively, with Hamas battered but still in control. This time, Israel’s government is under intense pressure from the public to topple Hamas, a goal considered unachievable in the past because it would require a reoccupation of the Gaza Strip, at least temporarily.

“The objective is for this war to end very differently from all of the previous rounds. There has to be a clear victory,” said Chuck Freilich, a former deputy national security adviser in Israel. “Whatever has to be done to fundamentally change the situation will have to be done,” he said.

The devastation also sharpened questions about Hamas’ strategy and objectives. Hamas officials have said they planned for all possibilities, including a punishing Israeli escalation. Desperation has grown among Palestinians, many of whom see nothing to lose under unending Israeli control and increasing settlements in the West Bank, a 16-year-long blockade in Gaza and what they see as the world’s apathy.

Hamas may have been counting on the fight to spread to the West Bank and possibly for Lebanon’s Hezbollah to open a front in the north. Days of clashes between rock-throwing Palestinians and Israeli forces in the West Bank have left 15 Palestinians dead, but Israel has clamped down heavily on the territory, preventing movement between communities. The violence also spread into east Jerusalem, where Israeli police said they killed two Palestinians who hurled stones at police late Tuesday.

Brief exchanges of fire across Israel’s northern border have taken place nearly daily. Palestinian militants fired rockets into northern Israel from Lebanon and from Syria on Tuesday, each bringing Israeli artillery and mortar fire in return. But so far they have not escalated.

In hopes of blunting the bombardment in Gaza, Hamas has threatened to kill one Israeli civilian captive any time Israel targets civilians in their homes in Gaza “without prior warning.”

The militants’ attack stunned Israel with a death toll unseen since the 1973 war with Egypt and Syria — and those deaths happened over a longer period of time. It brought horrific scenes of Hamas militants gunning down civilians in their homes, on streets and at a mass outdoor music festival, while dragging men, women and children into captivity.

The Israeli military said more than 1,000 people, including 155 soldiers, have been killed in Israel. In Gaza, 900 people have been killed, including 260 children and 230 women, according to authorities there; Israel says hundreds of Hamas fighters are among them. Thousands have been wounded on both sides.

U.S. President Joe Biden said Tuesday at least 14 U.S. citizens were killed in Hamas’ attack and that Americans are among those being held hostage in Gaza. Biden, who spoke earlier in the day with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said “there is no justification for terrorism.”

Biden added an apparent warning to Hezbollah, saying, “To any country, any organization, anyone thinking of taking advantage of the situation, I have one word: Don’t.”

The State Department announced that Secretary of State Antony Blinken would travel in the coming days to Israel to deliver a message of solidarity and support.

Hamas responded to Biden, saying his administration should “review its biased position” and “move away from the policy of double standards” over Palestinian rights to defend themselves against Israeli occupation.

The bodies of roughly 1,500 Hamas militants were found on Israeli territory, the military said. It wasn’t clear whether those numbers overlapped with deaths reported by Palestinian authorities. Tens of thousands of people in southern Israel have been evacuated since Sunday.

In Gaza, more than 200,000 people have fled their homes, the U.N. said, the most since a 2014 air and ground offensive by Israel uprooted about 400,000. The vast majority are sheltering in schools run by the U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees. Damage to three water and sanitation sites have cut off services to 400,000 people, the U.N. said.

The U.N.’s World Health Organization said that supplies it had pre-positioned for seven hospitals in Gaza have already run out amid the flood of wounded. The head of the medical aid group Doctors Without Borders said surgical equipment, antibiotics, fuel and other supplies were running out at two hospitals it runs in Gaza.

 

AP

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Will US military aid to Israel jeopardize Biden's help to Ukraine?

U.S. President Joe Biden pledged to bolster military support for Israel following an unprecedented attack by Hamas militants that has killed more than 1,000 Israelis and prompted an intense retaliation against the Palestinian-controlled Gaza Strip.

His promise raised questions about whether Washington can ramp up defense aid to Israel without jeopardizing aid for Ukraine, especially given Republican lawmakers' ouster of House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy and failure so far to name a replacement.

Biden administration officials insist Washington can absolutely do both, but acknowledge there will be challenges.

WHY DOES IT MATTER THAT THERE IS NO HOUSE SPEAKER?

The U.S. Congress controls spending, so Biden must convince the Senate and House to pass legislation authorizing additional funding. These spending bills generally originate in the House, where the Speaker - the elected leader of the majority party - controls what legislation is put to a vote.

Republicans hold a narrow 221-212 majority in the House, which made it possible for just a handful of their members to oust McCarthy last week, the first time in U.S. history this has happened.

Because McCarthy's ouster was unprecedented, it is not clear whether Representative Patrick McHenry, who is serving as temporary speaker, can legally call a vote on any aid legislation.

Further complicating the issue, many of the hard-right members who ousted McCarthy oppose aid to Ukraine, including Representative Jim Jordan, a frontrunner in the Speaker's race. House Republicans refused to include aid to Ukraine in a last-minute spending bill passed last month to avert a government shutdown.

Support for Israel is far stronger, with Republicans closely tied to conservative Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and the Biden administration is considering tying a request for assistance to Ukraine to more money for Israel.

HOW MUCH DO ISRAEL AND UKRAINE'S NEEDS OVERLAP?

Israel is a major long-term recipient of U.S. military assistance and enjoys a steady stream of U.S. aid. The two countries agreed in 2016 on a 10-year deal with $38 billion covering annual grants to buy military equipment and a $5 billion missile defense appropriation.

In the current phase of the conflict, Israel's major need is for small arms for its infantry and air defense interceptors to protect its civilian infrastructure and military command and control centers.

It is unlikely Israel has burned through its small arms ammunition this early in the conflict.

On the missile defense side, Israel uses the Iron Dome system, developed with U.S. backing to provide air defenses. Iron Dome is not designed to fire the same interceptor used by the U.S.-made Patriot system and other missile defense units deployed in Ukraine.

Ukraine's major needs are ammunition, missile defense systems and ground vehicles as it fights to take back territory from Russian invaders who launched an offensive in February 2022.

The United States has sent $44 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the invasion started, asking Congress for several tranches of assistance, the last one approved in December 2022.

The two countries - and other recipients of weapons aid like Taiwan - would benefit if Congress approves funding to boost the permanent manufacturing capacity of U.S. defense contractors. This would also ease concerns that shipments of U.S. weapons overseas is depleting U.S. stocks at the potential risk to national security.

WHAT HAPPENS NOW?

Biden on Tuesday said his administration had already begun sending Israel additional military assistance including interceptors to replenish the Iron Dome. He said that when Congress returns, the administration will ask lawmakers to take "urgent action to the national security requirements of our critical partners."

There are a few ways that additional aid for Ukraine - and Israel - could become law.

Congress could consider a standalone spending bill combining the two, along the lines of a spending request Biden made in August combining Ukraine, disaster relief and border security money.

Funding for both also could be included in a larger spending bill, which Congress must pass later this year to keep the federal government open when the stopgap spending measure expires next month.

** UK-led coalition to give Ukraine 100 mln pound mine-clearing support package

A British-led group of European countries will provide Ukraine with a 100 million pound ($122.70 million) package to support its armed forces including equipment to clear minefields.

Britain's defence ministry on Wednesday said Ukraine was "now the most mined country on earth," which had become an obstacle in its counter-offensive this year, and that mine clearing capabilities were essential to help it push forward.

The package will be provided using money from the International Fund for Ukraine - a group of countries including Britain, Norway, the Netherlands, Denmark and Sweden.

Defence minister Grant Shapps will announce the package alongside allies and attend his first NATO-Ukraine Council, where he is expected to discuss the Israel-Gaza crisis and reported damage to undersea infrastructurebetween Finland and Estonia.

 

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Russia reiterates warning over black market Ukrainian weapons

The unchecked delivery of Western weapons to Ukraine has resulted in a large amount of these arms ending up in the hands of organized criminal groups and extremists around the world, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has again claimed. 

On Tuesday, the diplomat published a compilation of excerpts from briefings over the past 18 months in which Moscow consistently raised concerns and provided evidence testifying to the unchecked spread of weapons supplied to Kiev. 

Zakharova suggested that the reason for this phenomenon was rampant corruption in Ukraine as well as corrupt ties between Washington and Kiev. Despite Moscow repeatedly calling for international media to highlight the issue, major Western news outlets have refused to conduct investigations or assess the data, the spokeswoman added. 

Below is a collection of briefings conducted by the Russian Foreign Ministry since March 24, 2022, in which it warned the international community on the issue.

** Zelensky fears that West will pay less attention to Ukraine amid Middle East crisis

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky fears that the West may pay less attention to the conflict in Ukraine amid the recent attack on Israel by Palestine’s radical movement HAMAS.

"The global community may become less attentive to Ukraine," Zelensky said in an interview to France 2.

At the same time, he "hopes for continued US support."

The Ukrainian president also claimed that "if the aid to Kiev ceases, time will be on Russia’s side."

On October 7, after Israel came under shelling from the Gaza Strip, a group of Hamas militants infiltrated the Jewish state. Hamas calls its attack a response to Israeli actions against the Al-Aqsa Mosque on the Temple Mount in Jerusalem. Israel has announced it was ready for war, started Operation Iron Swords and ordered a complete siege of the Gaza Strip. Clashes erupted in the West Bank and there was an exchange of artillery fire on the border with Lebanon.

 

Reuters/RT/Tass

President Bola Tinubu’s alleged certificate forgery is a tip of the iceberg in the political governance of Nigeria. In fact, on 20 February 2023, eighteen Nigerian nurses were charged to court for certificate forgery. On 13 March 2023, The Vanguard newspaper (Lagos, Nigeria) reported another case of 43 Nigerian nurses charged for certificate forgery. They were accused of engaging in a scheme to sell false and fraudulent nursing certificates. And perhaps more disturbingly, the Texas Board of Nursing has also charged more than 75 Nigerian nurses to court for engagement in falsification of certificates. This situation shows clearly that Tinubu’s case is not really a big deal at the Nigerian domestic level, but more than a big deal in terms of foreign policy implications. Certificate forgery is now both for educational and political survival. It is now very rampant. But why?

At the domestic level, there was the first case of Evan or Evans Enwerem who had the same problem as Tinubu today. Enwerem was elected to represent the Imo-East Senatorial Zone in the Fourth Senate of the Fourth Republic inaugurated in May 1999. He was elected with the active support of President Olusegun Obasanjo to the detriment of the more popularly- supported Chuba Okadigbo. Enwerem won with 66 votes while Okadigbo scored 45 votes. Enwerem was ousted from power on November 18, 1999, that is, five months after his inauguration as Senate President. He was impeached due to his first name identity arising from falsification of his documents which had his first name as Evans, and not as Evan. Documentary name is different from name in usage.

An August edition of The Tell Magazine claimed that the first Senate President had falsified his name which prompted the establishment by the National Assembly of an investigation committee. Enwerem simply argued that it was a typographical error which was not accepted. Okadigbo’s  supporters posited that he feigned his age and name ‘for a dubious gain.’ He was also accused of corruption and was removed when he followed the presidential entourage to the airport to see off Obasanjo. Khairat Abdulrasaq (PDP, representing the FCT) led some other Senators to mobilise signatures for Enwerem’s removal. Okadigbo expectedly succeeded him.

More notably in this case is the fact that Enwerem was deposed. It is more interesting in terms of intellectual enquiry. Enwerem remained a Senate floor member until the end of his tenure in 2003 while Okadigbo was impeached in 2000 similarly on corruption charges.

In essence, was Evans Ekwerem the same person as Evan Ekwerem? Is the problem a typographical error? Whatever is the case, there is no disputing the fact that several political leaders have a political lifestyle that is fraught with chicanery, conscious dishonesty of purpose, attitudinal bigotry, and romance with political dishonesty. These are the people that have always found their way to leadership positions in Nigeria and who the security agencies have always cleared for election purposes.

Unlike Enwerem, Tinubu’s  alleged certificate forgery is more interesting in terms of intellectual posterity. Tinubu’s case is not the first of certificate forgeries. What makes it very interesting is that nothing has been done institutionally to nip in the bud the commissioning of fresh potential crimes of certificate forgery. It also raises three main problems: extent of importance of a name identity, constitutional eligibility in a presidential election, Tinubu’s changing narration of the presumed truths, and foreign policy implications.

As regards name identity, it should first be noted that Tinubu is not the first person to be confronted with queries about his true identity. Besides, he also has the problem of age in addition to identity problem like Enwerem. So a name is not simply for identification. It is also a reflection of personality and character. A name must never be taken for granted, including order of arrangement and presentation of the names. If there was a serious problem with Evans and Evan, why should anyone be talking about a typographical error as an excuse?

Tinubu’s true age has been subject of public debate. His origin has also been subject of query: Lagos or Iragbiji? Again, is the name Bola Tinubu that of a male or female?  Apparently, there might have been a male Bola Tinubu and a female Bola Tinubu. The male Tinubu was born in 1952 while the female Tinubu was born in 1954 and she is said to be alive. Questions are also being raised as to why the female Tinubu has not come out to speak on the alleged forged certificate reportedly carrying the status of a female? Wole Soyinka is also being publicly queried for keeping silent on Tinubu’s alleged forged certificate, considering that the Nobel Laureat had always been seen to be completely detribalised in his attitudinal orientation. He is always arguing on the basis of objectivity of purpose. He also strongly believes that Tinubu won the 2023 presidential elections.

On constitutional eligibility for presidential election, Section 137 (1) (J) of the 1999 Constitution as amended in 2010 provides that ‘a person shall not be qualified for election to the office of President if he has presented a forged certificate to the Independent National Electoral Commission.’ As noted by the Registrar of the Chicago State University (CSU), the certificate of Tinubu (PBAT) was dated June 22, 1979 and tendered to the INEC on June 17, 2022 but the certificate was not issued by the school.

More important, the registrar noted further in his oral deposition at the US Court that on the certificates tendered in the documents given to Atiku Abubakar, ‘the University only has Diplomas that students didn’t pick up in its possession. The University does not typically keep Diplomas. I have the Diploma that was made available to Mr. Enahoro-Ebah in our possession because Mr. Tinubu did not pick it up. I do not have the Diploma that was submitted to INEC in our possession because he had picked it up.’

The issue to address by Nigerians in the CSU registrar’s deposition is not whether Tinubu truly attended the Chicago State University but whether he forged any certificate or document to enter the Chicago State University. If he did forge a document, was the forged document presented to the INEC for electoral purposes? This question is quite relevant here because Tinubu was involved in a similar certificate and identity controversy in 1999. He succeeded to manage the crisis and he escaped retribution. The 2023 renewal of the problem is generating a more heated debate and seriously threatening national cohesion.

In fact, Tinubu has been given different names: a drug pusher, a certificate forger, etc. But why is he so referred to? Is he more terrible than other politicians in spite of what his many controversies and his personality have been generating? Our simple answer is that the politico-administrative system, and particularly the conduct and management of public affairs, is largely driven by attitudinal magouilles, a French word for ‘jìbìtì’ in Yoruba language and malpractice in English language.’

Concerning the changing narratives of the truth, Tinubu’s lawyers first posited that former Vice President Abubakar Atiku was only going on a fishing expedition by going to the United States court. When the US court confirmed the studentship of Tinubu, it is argued that there was no mention of forgery and fake certificate in the deposition before and by the court. Currently it is argued that the issue of forged certificate is not before the Supreme Court of Nigeria on which Tinubu’s men now heavily rely. This is a situation of shifting the goal post as convenient.

But without any shadow of doubt, the Supreme Court can only admit consideration of the new discovery in the event of a fresh evidence. Even though PBAT made a mistake that he obtained a BSc degree in Economics from the University of Chicago and his associate, Tokunbo Afikuyomi, later said it was a mistake and that the degree was from the Chicago State University, the problematic to address still remains whether there is a case of perjury or forgery.

As there is still a case of controversial forgery, the implications cannot be far-fetched. For instance, on the arrival of a KLM airline from Lagos in Amsterdam, the chief hostess announced that all Nigerians in the aircraft should be seated until all other passengers have left the plane. After, every Nigerian on the plane had his or her passport re-checked. This is one major implication of Tinubu’s certificate forgery saga.

The trending perception today is that Tinubu forged his certificate of entry into the Chicago State University (CSU), based on the submission of the CSU and on the attitudinal disposition of Tinubu, who has vehemently opposed the release of his academic credentials to the public, fearing that such a release might permanently damage his political career and taint his personality. Another implication is that every Nigerian in various educational institutions will be suspected henceforth. Tinubu cannot earn any international respect anymore without reservation. His international image has been damaged beyond repair. Domestically, we contend here that Tinubu’s personality is not and cannot be damaged in Nigeria because, a friend sleeping with the wife of another friend, engaging in public embezzlements, whose lifestyle is corruption- and indiscipline-driven, and whose behaviour is irrational are generally always celebrated regardless of government’s anti-corruption agencies which are fighting crimes, societal corruption and indiscipline selectively. The handling of whether President Muhammadu Buhari has a West African School Certificate is a mute question. People not found guilty of corruption and crimes in Nigeria are tried, convicted, as well as sentenced to imprisonment abroad. Why is Nigeria’s polity built on dishonest infrastructures? Why should anyone not happy with the situation told to go to the court in which people do not have much trust? After all, Salisu Buhari was pardoned. Is it not a life of magouilles in Nigeria which goes beyond the diplomacy of certificate forgery?

A job interview has multiple components. Interviewers will likely take some time upfront to discuss your work history and do a general assessment of your fit for the role and company. And oftentimes they’ll leave 10 to 15 minutes at the end for you to ask some questions of your own.

You’ll want to fill that time by asking about the role, company and people who are interviewing you — so make sure to do your homework on all three before you come in. But according to former Google recruiter Nolan Church, there’s also one question every job candidate should ask:

‘What’s the No. 1 problem I can solve in the first 30 days?’

To begin with, asking your interviewers about their most critical problems gives you a chance to see if, on the ground, this is really a job you want to do.

It gives you the chance to think about, “do you actually want to solve those types of problems?” says Church, now the CEO of talent marketplace Continuum. “And then how does the team respond to your approach? Are they open to new ideas? Or are they kind of stuck in their ways?”

Ultimately, it’s a way to feel out, “are you aligned” with them, he says.

‘How do we get quick wins’

The other benefit of asking this question is, if you decide you are interested in pursuing this opportunity, it can start setting you up for success.

“We wouldn’t open up a new role unless there were more problems to solve,” says Church. By assessing what the most critical problem for the team is even during the job interview, you can start orienting yourself toward the job and thinking about how to solve those problems. That way, when you do get hired, you can hit the ground running on day one.

You want to get that job offer, of course, says Church. “But the next piece is how do we get quick wins” that will make your new team’s life better right away.

 

CNBC

“For the past three months now, I haven’t fueled my car,” Fabian Dike, who runs a retail outlet selling wine and other alcoholic beverages, tells TheCable in Owerri, the Imo state capital. He says his car has been parked because he can no longer afford to maintain it. In the past, he filled his tank with N15,000, but today, almost N50,000 will be needed to do the same.

He is not alone, millions of citizens nationwide are making lifestyle changes to survive in the “new” Nigeria. From Ibadan to Yola, from Lokoja to Cross River, from Port Harcourt to Lagos, Nigerians are making hard decisions to survive increased economic hardship as a result of what they call the “twin demons” of subsidy removal and exchange rate instability.

TheCable visited numerous states across the federation to see how the cost of living is affecting people in rural and urban centres. The story is the same across the country — it is double trouble. 

IN OYO, IT IS BODMAS FOR BEEF

In her 50s, Sadiyat Tajudeen, who sells baby items at Eleyele Market, says she tactically divides each piece of beef from the original market size, cutting it into two or three more pieces so the protein can last longer for her family.

“I reserve three or four pieces in the original size for the head of the house while I divide others into two or three pieces,” she narrated, stating that her family now finishes a pot of soup after eating just two or three times. 

Bashir, who sells grains on a wheelbarrow at another section of the market, said he used to buy three or four bags of rice at N32,000 or N33,000 each in January 2023, but now, he buys the same at N40,000.

“I can only afford to buy two bags at a time,” he told TheCable.

“It’s not that my money is reducing, it is the cost of the products going so high so that we can no longer buy as much as we used to.”

The signature sight of bright red tomatoes and pepper at every corner of Sasa Market is gradually disappearing.

When TheCable visited, there were fewer sellers, but even fewer buyers, which may lead to the death of many small businesses in the market.

Mrs Olarenwaju, who sells carbonated drinks and water alongside her husband, said her family does not make enough sales to renew their rent in the market when it expires. 

“We rented this place in July for N100,000. People are not taking up the stalls,” she said pointing to empty stalls. “We that are here, there is no market. Sometimes, we don’t sell up to N1,000 a day. After our rent expires, we’ll pack out and go elsewhere”.

While the Olanrewajus are experiencing some financial strain in their marriage, many Nigerians seeking to get married are having second thoughts due to the economy.

IT IS NO MONEY, NO MARRIAGE IN NIGER

For James Kalu — a trader who was formerly into selling various food items before the economy hit hard — the new reality may mean delayed romance. 

He recently switched to selling Garri at Kure Market in Minna, Niger state. With this business, Kalu holds onto a thin thread of hope as he is uncertain if the business will support him enough to get married. 

“Early this year, a mudu of Garri was being sold for N250 to N300 but now it’s N600. There is not much profit compared to when it was sold for N250,” he said.

“I wonder how I will be able to gather money from this business to get married. I pray that our God will intervene in this situation.”

NO NEED FOR HEALTH INSURANCE

Ibrahim Gambo, a 33-year-old trader selling home items in Yola, is in the same shows as Kalu; both men believe finance has to come before romance. Gambo, who currently resides in his father’s house, said he initially planned to get married this year but is considering postponing due to the challenging economic situation in the country.

Worse still, he is making changes and deep cuts to his spending to reflect the country’s realities — he said he has already cut pay-TV bills, halted the use of his car, and will shut down health insurance payments for himself and his siblings.

“We hardly fall sick in my family, so no need for health insurance,” he told TheCable.

JAPA OVER SAPA IN PORT HARCOURT

Uche lost his job in 2020 during the pandemic, and has been struggling to take care of the people who call him “daddy”.

As a responsible man, he started a cab business to feed his family, with the hope that a new government would change his fortune, but he has been disappointed so far.

“Government is not doing anything. We are on our own,” the father of three said, adding that he has “to look for a way to fend for” his family.

“The taxi business isn’t as profitable as before, especially now that the fuel price has gone up”.

For him, leaving Nigeria (Japa) is the solution to financial difficulties now colloquially referred to as “sapa”— serious absence of purchasing ability.

“I really do not have anything to say about the new government but if I see any opportunity to leave this country, I will leave.”

WAREHOUSES ARE WEARING THIN

In Lokoja, the hike in the price of commodities has made many middlemen close down their warehouses. Godwin Grace, a petty trader buying from the warehouses, said fast-moving consumer goods companies like Nestle, Golden Penny have increased prices to reflect recent realities. 

“Within the period the subsidy was removed and now, one carton of Bama is N4,500 higher. Golden Penny added N400 to all their products. We got another email that they will jack up the price again. With that, all the warehouses in this market have shut their doors,” she said. 

“Take Nestle for instance,  they have increased the prices of their products twice after subsidy removal. We used to buy Maggi Star for N13,800, it went to N14,300 in August, and now, it is N14,700.” 

“Kings Oil 25litres was N30,000 before the Tinubu came in, but now, it’s N34,000. The manufacturer has sent us an email that they will effect a price increase on the 1-litre version of the oil too.”

“This is Lokoja international market. By international, if it was to be before, everywhere is always filled with buyers. Now, the sellers are not around because no money to restock and transport themselves and the buyers too are not coming because of lack of money.”

THE STARVING GIANT OF AFRICA

Lagos is the biggest sub-national economy in Nigeria by numerous metrics —  there are over 20 million Nigerians living in the city, and a good number of them are feeling the crunch.

Chinyere Okafor, an oil seller at the Mile 12 International Market in Lagos, says she can no longer afford the luxury of buying a full bag of rice monthly to feed herself and her children – instead, she buys in smaller portions barely sufficient for a couple of days.

With a mix of exasperation and anger, she voiced her grievances, pointing fingers at the government for what she sees as its failure to address the rising cost of living and skyrocketing prices of food items.

Amid the foodstuff market’s hustle and bustle, Okafor’s voice cut through the noise and captured the rapt attention of vendors and shoppers alike.

Her sentiments struck a chord with the crowd, drawing resounding applause and murmurs of agreement from fellow market traders who have also been grappling with the financial strain caused by escalating prices and low sales.

HIGHER PRICES, LOWER PROFITS

For David Umoren, who sells palm oil in bulk at the popular Watt market, Calabar, “things have really changed”. In the past, he made N1,000 on N6,000 worth of palm oil, but now he makes between N500 and N1,000 on N20,000 worth of palm oil. 

N20,000 worth of palm oil, which would have landed him N3,000 in profit, now fetches just N1,000. For him, “higher prices not bringing in higher profits”.

Across the country, many of the traders we spoke to responded like Mama Dupe Akanni, a trader in Calabar, who said they could only speak to us because there are little to no sales.

“As you are seated here, I would have stood up ten times to attend to customers. But now, in a whole day, I hardly take N1000 home,” she said.

For many Nigerians, it is no longer about profit, it has simply become about cash flow.

“Sometimes when you get goods from a company like 10,000 and you hope to say like 10,100 or 10,200, before you finish selling the product, the company will say they have an increment of up to 15,000 of the same product, where will you get extra money to add to get the same product?” Obinna asked TheCable in Enugu. 

BABA GO FAST HAS GONE TOO FAST?

President Bola Tinubu ran for president with the promise to make life better for Nigerians. He kicked against policies by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), calling interest rates “anti-people, anti-business”.

Upon assumption of office, he removed Nigeria’s unending fuel subsidy and instructed the CBN to drive the unification of foreign exchange rates. Some Nigerians and a lot of the international community immediately lauded him.

The policies were praised so much that Reuters asked if he was Baba Go Fast, the opposite of the nickname handed to former president Muhammadu Buhari for his snail speed policy implementation.

However, less than three months after these policies took effect, Nigerians are worse off. From Yola to Oyo, the song rings true — food prices are getting too high in so short a time.

Obinna, the 35-year-old businessman from Enugu, believes that the Buhari administration was better for Nigeria than the Tinubu administration. 

“Since the beginning of the year, things have been a little bit hard and we were thinking that if you have a new president things will be fine or get better because before now, we have been hearing about Tinubu and that he can refine Nigeria to a better place. But after everything, the next thing we saw was hardship more than what we expected,” he said.

“I will say it’s better we go back to the last regime because what we expected from this administration is not what we are getting. The last regime was tough but even as it was tough it was a little better.”

Palliatives to cushion the effect of fuel subsidy removal are not changing local experiences; while some Nigerians are calling on God, others are calling on the government, but Uche in Port Harcourt is finding solace in his faith, which warns of the end times.

For him, the economic crisis in Nigeria “is the fulfilment of God’s prophecy”.

“The system is fulfilling scriptures. Things are not going to get better. It will only grow from bad to worse. We thought Buhari was bad and Tinubu came in, but it is basically going to be the same thing when Tinubu leaves,” he said.

Here is the government’s chance to convince him — and millions of Nigerians.

 

The Cable

London-based Financial Times publication says there are signs of President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms not going as planned.

In an editorial, the publication noted that although Tinubu started well by removing fuel subsidy and moving towards a market-driven exchange, events in the past four months show that more work has to be done.

“In removing a costly fuel subsidy and in shifting towards a market-driven exchange rate, which has sharply weakened a previously overvalued currency, he has gone some way towards persuading investors he is serious about reform. But four months into his presidency, there are signs of things going awry,” it said.

The report noted that the removal of Godwin Emefiele, the former Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), raised eyebrows due to its unconventional nature, giving the impression of political reprisal.

“The removal of Godwin Emefiele, the previous governor, was overdue. But its manner, initially via a charge of firearms possession, was odd and smacked of political revenge. More substantively, the new exchange rate regime has yet to be properly explained,” the report said.

“On how the new CBN management can stabilize the financial system, the report said the new CBN leadership will most likely increase the interest rates to curb inflation.

“Markets consider Cardoso, a former Citibank Nigeria chair, to be a sound appointment. (The same cannot be said of all of Tinubu’s picks.) The incoming governor will probably need to raise rates at the next policy meeting to establish his inflation-busting credentials. Tinubu must restore institutional independence by leaving the bank to get on with its job. In other areas, the president needs to be more active – and more articulate,” the report said.

It said in other areas, Tinubu needs to be more active and more articulate.

“He should spell out his policies to a skeptical public. He should also refrain from announcing plans — including the restoration of democracy in Niger — without any real idea of how to implement them. Execution is key. Only four months into his presidency, what started out with a bang risks becoming a whimper. Tinubu needs to regain the momentum,” it said.

 

Daily Trust